A 25% undecided number this late is not “noise,” it’s the whole story. We sit down with pollster Nicole McCleskey and strategist Jay McCleskey to walk through a real New Mexico Republican primary poll for governor and what it reveals about who’s voting, what they care about, and how quickly the race can swing in the final stretch.

We get specific on polling methodology (live calls plus text-to-web, 400 likely GOP primary voters, and what a plus or minus 4.9% margin of error really means), then dig into the issues driving the base: corruption in government, crime, and border security. From there we hit the candidate fundamentals like name ID and favorability and why so many voters still don’t have a firm opinion. The ballot test shows Greg Hull at 33%, Doug Turner at 30%, Duke Rodriguez at 12%, with 25% undecided, and we talk through what it takes to earn those late-breaking votes.

Then we zoom out to the national environment, Trump’s tough approval numbers, and why midterms can turn into a referendum unless Republicans force a clear choice. We also debate the general election matchup with Deb Haaland, including the fracking and public lands moment that could reshape the entire campaign if Republicans prosecute the argument with discipline.

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