No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen

Episode: Trump falls into trap at State of the Union

Date: February 25, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Donald Trump’s performance at the State of the Union amid worsening economic realities, arguing he has fallen into the same rhetorical trap that cost Democrats in 2024: proclaiming prosperity despite obvious public pain. Brian Tyler Cohen breaks down the implications for Trump, the GOP, and American politics, then hosts two in-depth interviews—first with attorney Norm Eisen about the fallout from the Supreme Court's decision invalidating Trump's tariffs, and second with CNN’s Alex Michaelson on the Epstein files, political hypocrisy, California’s political climate, and 2028 presidential jockeying.

Main Discussion: Trump at the State of the Union and the Big Trap

Theme:
Trump repeats the Democrats’ 2024 mistake by “gaslighting” Americans about the economy—insisting things are great when most are hurting—thereby alienating voters and trapping both himself and the GOP.

Key Points:

• Trump claims the US is “the hottest country anywhere in the world” and Americans are “winning too much,” despite high costs and public discontent. (00:45–01:25)
• Cohen recalls 2024, when Democrats insisted the economy “was the best it’s ever been,” which ended in a Republican sweep—because the public felt disconnected from politicians’ rhetoric. (01:26–01:59)
• Now Trump is using similar denial, pretending costs are falling, “when none of those things are true, and Americans know they're not, because we all have eyes and we all pay those things.” (02:44)
• This presents a dilemma for the GOP: either candidates “distance themselves from Trump, which could earn them the hellfire of Trump’s social account, or...embrace Trump...and make themselves seem just out of touch.” (03:23)
• “Trump first, America last”: Instead of helping Americans, Trump is focused on self-enrichment and punishing enemies. (03:42–03:59)

Notable Quote:

"But now we have to listen to Trump gaslight us into not believing our own eyes. And again, not a very effective strategy."
— Brian Tyler Cohen (02:44)

Memorable Moment:

• Cohen skewers Trump’s shamelessness: “anytime he's the center of attention and saying words, he feels like he's winning. But...all he's done, in effect, was fall into the most obvious trap ever." (04:01–04:06)

Interview 1: Norm Eisen on Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump’s Tariffs

Segment Start: 05:35

Background

• The Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s tariffs by a 6–3 vote, opening the door for those affected to seek refunds.

Key Points

• Small businesses were disproportionately harmed by the tariffs; the ruling could mean over $150 billion in refunds. (06:03–07:41)
• Eisen’s group, Democracy Defenders Action, is spearheading litigation to help businesses get their money back and is working with former NJ Attorney General Matt Plotkin.
• Most likely legal strategy: thousands of individual claims, “litigated in a centralized way,” or possible class/mass actions to streamline and strengthen the suits. (07:53–09:40)
• Public pressure and mass litigation may force the administration to establish a swift refund process, rather than being “killed twice, one on the refunds and another on the legal fees.” (08:55)
• Congress could also intervene to make small businesses whole, possibly by attaching relief to must-pass legislation. (09:40–12:22)
• Consumers: While only those with direct legal standing can seek refunds, “the court of public opinion” should pressure for broader relief; recovered sums may eventually help lower consumer prices. (12:22–15:01)
• Small business owners seeking assistance can email tariffrefunds@plotkinllp.com for guidance. (15:13, 20:42)
• On the risk of Trump’s ire: “I have long ago abandoned any concern that I have about doing that. Probably somewhere around the hundredth case or matter against the Trump administration.” (17:40)

Notable Quotes:

“Every administration from Nixon to Trump [said] these tariffs are illegal. And now we're very pleased to be working with former New Jersey Attorney General Matt Plotkin... to get those illegal tariffs back...”
— Norm Eisen (06:03)

“You may be able to get a fast resolution, get a test case, get it resolved, get a court declaration that then allows other speedy resolution.”
— Norm Eisen (09:40)

“It really was a landmark case... The tariff case provides another opportunity to achieve that double bottom line, recovering wrongly paid tariffs for small businesses... but also... joining in to fight for our democracy.”
— Norm Eisen (17:40)

Resources:

• If you’re a small business owner impacted by tariffs: Email tariffrefunds@plotkinllp.com (20:42)

Interview 2: Alex Michaelson (CNN Host) on the Political Landscape

Segment Start: 23:18

1. GOP and the Epstein Files

Key Points:

• The “Epstein files” continue to cause fallout for many public figures, but Trump and his administration seem untouched, even refusing to engage on the issue. (23:27–30:22)
• On Republican attitudes: Some GOP figures criticize Trump’s Epstein connections, but most “find it in their professional best interest to defend President Trump no matter what.” (23:52)
• Most damaging to Trump is not the Epstein story, but the disconnect between economic reality and his statements about the cost of living—a pain “nobody, Republican or Democrat, can lie to people about.” (24:43)
• The scandal becomes a “scarlet letter” for those named, even if their transgressions are minor, but there is no “smoking gun” directly implicating Trump with Epstein (so far). (26:40–29:40)
• “There does seem to be a different threshold when it comes to the government and going after high profile officials.” (31:09)
• Trump “has the ability right now to release the Epstein files and...hold these co conspirators to account,” but his DOJ deliberately chooses not to. (32:53)

Notable Quotes:

“That is an issue that nobody, Republican or Democrat, can lie to people about because when they go to the store and they see the prices, the price is what the price is, not what some politician tells you...”
— Alex Michaelson (24:43)

“This is the same story of, you know, our inability to hold this criminal cabal of pedophiles to account is not dissimilar to our inability to hold the ruling class politicians to account when they've done something wrong. And ironically enough, it's happening at the hands of the same person.”
— Brian Tyler Cohen (31:38)

“The way that the Epstein files for the MAGA base has been for years, is this idea that there is a different set of justice for people in power. And the way that they're seeing this play out kind of makes that point.”
— Alex Michaelson (32:53)

2. California Politics: Gubernatorial Race and National Ambitions

Timestamps: 34:17–44:48

Key Points:

• California’s Democratic primary is fractured; “there is some risk that... two Republicans advance to the general election.” (34:17–36:36)
  • Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, and others jockey for support.
• Katie Porter’s staff scandal “stuck” because it confirmed negative perceptions and she lacked allies in the party: “the worst thing in politics can be a visualization of something that people already think about you.” (38:36)
• Gavin Newsom’s national star rises—his book tour doubles as 2028 groundwork. Is he peaking too early? Michaelson: “I mean, Gavin Newsom is a bona fide political celebrity at a time in our culture where people really like celebrities.” (41:06–42:48)
• Kamala Harris: Despite losing in 2024, her “100 name ID” and strength in early states like South Carolina could make her a contender in 2028, but Dems don’t usually “go back to losers.” (44:20)
  • “She didn’t run for governor because she doesn’t want to be governor. But you know what she does want to be? She wants to be president.” (45:32)
• Both Newsom and Harris are on parallel book/speaking tours, signaling a 2028 showdown. (46:31–46:57)

3. Media Careers and Jockeying for Influence

• Michaelson plugs his CNN show (“The Story Is”) and YouTube, mentioning recent high-profile interviews (Bernie Sanders, Bill Maher) and debates (incl. with Brian Tyler Cohen).
  • “You're one of the few people that's able to speak to everybody, which is why I think the show is particularly interesting.” — Cohen (47:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “Trump gaslight[s] us into not believing our own eyes...” — Brian Tyler Cohen (02:44)
• “Every administration from Nixon to Trump [said] these tariffs are illegal.” — Norm Eisen (06:03)
• “The advantage of going to court is you may be able to get a fast resolution...” — Norm Eisen (09:40)
• “I have long ago abandoned any concern that I have about doing that [incurring Trump’s ire]. Probably somewhere around the hundredth case...” — Norm Eisen (17:40)
• “That is an issue nobody, Republican or Democrat, can lie to people about...The price is what the price is.” — Alex Michaelson (24:43)
• “Our inability to hold this criminal cabal of pedophiles to account is not dissimilar to our inability to hold the ruling class politicians to account—ironically, both at the hands of the same person.” — Brian Tyler Cohen (31:38)
• “The worst thing in politics can be a visualization of something that people already think about you.” — Alex Michaelson (38:36)
• “Gavin Newsom is a bona fide political celebrity at a time in our culture where people really like celebrities.” — Alex Michaelson (42:48)

Important Timestamps

• [00:45] — Trump’s boasts from the State of the Union
• [01:26–03:59] — Analysis of economic denial and GOP’s current trap
• [05:35] — Interview with Norm Eisen begins
• [12:22] — Discussion of consumers and court of public opinion
• [15:13, 20:42] — How business owners can seek tariff refunds
• [23:18] — Interview with Alex Michaelson begins
• [24:43] — Dangers for Trump on economy, not just Epstein
• [34:17] — California political landscape, risks for Democrats
• [41:06–44:48] — Newsom’s presidential positioning and Harris’s prospects

Summary

Brian Tyler Cohen argues that Trump—and the GOP—have walked into the same “trap” that doomed Democrats in 2024: denying clear economic pain and insisting to voters that things are much better than reality—“gaslighting” families who are struggling. Trump’s self-serving rhetoric, Cohen contends, hurts Republicans’ credibility and leaves them with no good options in upcoming elections.

Supreme Court attorney Norm Eisen details the fallout from the Court’s overturning of Trump’s tariffs, explaining legal remedies for small business owners and how mass actions may force the administration or Congress to act. He underscores the importance of both legal fights and public pressure.

Alex Michaelson discusses political fallout from the Epstein files, noting that Trump and his allies seem singularly immune to accountability compared to public figures elsewhere. He highlights the looming danger for Trump in continued economic pain—something people “feel” regardless of politics—and breaks down California’s fractious gubernatorial contest, Gavin Newsom's positioning for 2028, and Kamala Harris’s complicated comeback calculus.

Further Resources

• Small businesses seeking tariff refunds: Email tariffrefunds@plotkinllp.com
• Alex Michaelson’s show: CNN, “The Story Is” (9–11pm PT), and YouTube

This episode illuminates how old political mistakes are being repeated, the legal aftershocks of Trump-era policy, and the unpredictable, personality-driven landscape ahead in American politics.