No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen
Episode: Trump plunges the US into a new regime change war
Date: January 4, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode covers President Trump's initiation of a major regime change war in Venezuela—an act that directly contradicts his "America First" and anti-interventionist campaign promises. Brian Tyler Cohen analyzes the political implications and motivations behind the move, arguing that it's a gift to oil companies rather than a benefit to regular Americans. He then interviews foreign policy experts Ben Rhodes and Tommy Vitor (co-hosts of Pod Save the World) to discuss the legality, strategy, risks, hypocrisy, and historical context of this intervention.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's Venezuela War: Motivation & Immediate Consequences

• For Oil, Not "America First":

  • Trump justified the intervention by promising to fix Venezuela's oil industry for profit, favoring US oil companies ([00:36]).

    • Quote (Trump): "We're going to have our very large United States oil company companies... go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure... and start making money for the country." [00:36]

  • Cohen notes that this directly breaks campaign promises and benefits Trump's donors rather than the American people ([01:34]).

    • Quote (Cohen): "Trump supporters thought they were getting an isolationist president. Instead, they got 2002 era neocon policies... this is a gift to his wealthy pals who helped him win the election. That's who's being helped here." [01:34]

• Political and Legal Illegitimacy:

  • The military action was unauthorized, sidestepping Congressional approval ([01:34]).
  • Cohen criticizes Democrats for focusing only on procedural illegality rather than the broader issue of Trump's broken promises and harmful policy priorities.

• Impact on Americans:

  • Cohen emphasizes that none of this helps affordability or everyday issues—such as rent, groceries, healthcare—despite Trump's campaign rhetoric ([01:34]).

2. Expert Analysis: Ben Rhodes Interview ([07:03–26:41])

a. Motivation & Policy Drivers

• Pattern of Interventionism:

  • Ben Rhodes sees the Venezuela operation as part of Trump’s broader Latin America policy, hinting that similar actions may follow in other countries ([07:30]).
    • "This is here to stay... this kind of foreign policy... might not be the last place in which he chooses to use... regime change purposes with no legal basis..." [07:30]

• Power & Money Over Ideology:

  • Rhodes argues Trump is motivated by power and personal profit, not any true America First ideology ([08:51]).
    • "Trump is motivated above all not by any MAGA ideology... He's motivated by power and money. And both of those things intersect here in Venezuela." [08:51]

b. Subversion of Democratic Norms

• Congressional Sidestepping:
  • Although certain budgetary maneuvers could technically limit further nation-building, Congress (particularly the GOP) is enabling Trump by failing to act ([10:45]).
    • "What we've seen them do is take these giant pots of money... just pull out of one pot and put it in this pot in ways that normally would be illegal." [10:45]

c. Disingenuous Framing by the Right

• Criticism as Pro-Communism:
  • Some Republicans accuse war opponents of supporting dictators, echoing arguments from the Iraq era ([14:52]).
    • Quote (Rhodes): "When... the invasion of Iraq... Republicans would just say... 'Oh, you're supporting Saddam Hussein.' Right. And that's just not the case." [14:52]

d. International and Historical Implications

• Return to Imperialism:

  • Rhodes likens Trump’s view of Latin America as a “sphere of influence” to Putin’s attitude toward former Soviet states ([18:18]).
    • "Trump views the Western Hemisphere like Putin views the former Soviet Union... Like China views... the South China Sea." [18:18]

• Effect on Democratic Movements:

  • Maria Karina Machado, the opposition leader, was quickly dismissed as a potential leader by Trump despite her democratic credentials and public support ([19:56]).
    • Quote (Rhodes): "He tossed her overboard right away... spare me the rhetoric about caring about democracy and human rights. That's not what this is about." [19:56]

e. The Dangers of Normalizing Executive Overreach

• Juvenile Rhetoric Masks Serious Risks:

  • Commentators like Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio use “tough guy” language, but their actions are destabilizing ([21:29]).
    • "If I had told you a year ago, hey, Trump's gonna, like, invade Venezuela, remove the leader... you'd be like, holy shit, this is the worst case scenario." [22:40]

• Urgency for Political Pushback:

  • Rhodes says that only a “decisive political turn” against Trump will constrain him, as Congress won't act without popular pressure ([24:36]).
    • "There needs to be a decisive political turn against Trump so that then you can try to get the pushback from Congress." [24:36]

3. Expert Analysis: Tommy Vitor Interview ([27:13–46:52])

a. Absurdity and Risks of US Direct Rule

• US "Running" Venezuela:

  • Vitor highlights the unprecedented announcement that the US will administer Venezuela until a “judicious transition”—an act with no clear precedent or plan ([29:12]).
    • Quote (Vitor): "The announcement that the dudes behind Trump were now going to be running the country is the craziest thing I have ever heard." [29:12]

• Lack of Coherence and Real Strategy:

  • Trump’s public statements and the sudden nature of U.S. intervention suggest ad hoc policy-making ([31:09], [43:47]).

b. Trump’s Disregard for Human Rights and Democracy

• Dismissal of Democratic Opposition:
  • Despite being celebrated opposition leader and Nobel laureate, Maria Machado was swiftly passed over in favor of loyalists ([31:09]).
    • Quote (Vitor): "What I think that tells us is that he doesn't give a shit about human rights. He doesn't care about the opposition. He doesn't care about the Venezuelan people. He cares about the oil." [31:09]

c. Hypocrisy and Shifting Justifications

• Drug War Pretext Fails:

  • Trump’s shifting explanations (from drugs to oil) are refuted by basic facts about drug trafficking routes ([27:33], [35:39]).
    • Quote (Vitor): "If you are worried about fentanyl... that's not coming out of Venezuela..." [35:39]

• Pardoning Right-Wing Criminals:

  • Trump’s decision to pardon the former Honduran president (convicted for drug trafficking) while deposing Maduro is pointed out as gross hypocrisy ([33:56], [35:39]).

d. Implications for Future US Policy

• Broader Threats and Expansion:

  • Posturing and threats towards Cuba, Colombia, and other neighbors raise the specter of more interventions ([36:55]).
    • Quote (Vitor): "Trump pretty overtly threatened both Cuba and the Colombian government in his remarks..." [36:55]

• Historical Parallels and Lessons:

  • Vitor reflects on failed past interventions: "Regime change operations look great on day one. It's like day 106 months a year..." ([38:24])

e. Economic and Political Fallout

• No Direct Benefit for Americans:

  • Even if US oil companies benefit, US consumers may not, and taxpayers might foot the bill for the "rebuild" ([43:47]).
    • Quote (Vitor): "It's a global market... these companies might find it more profitable to export that oil. And so they do." [43:47]

• Betrayal of "America First":

  • Trump's focus on foreign adventures over domestic issues undermines his voters' expectations ([45:05]).
    • Quote (Vitor): "I don't think any of these guys voted for regime change in Venezuela." [45:37]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Overt Oil Motive:

  • Trump ([00:36]): "We're going to have our very large United States oil company companies... fix the badly broken infrastructure... and start making money for the country."

• On Policy Hypocrisy:

  • Ben Rhodes ([08:51]): "That whole posture of being against forever wars, of being America first, was bogus... Trump is motivated... by power and money."

• On Dismissal of Democracy, Human Rights:

  • Rhodes ([19:56]): "He tossed [Maria Machado] overboard right away... spare me the rhetoric about caring about democracy..."

• On the Dangers of Normalizing Lawlessness:

  • Rhodes ([23:41]): "It feels like we're in dangerous new terrain... What does it mean to run Venezuela? What do the Russians and Chinese do?"

• On Trump's Executive Overreach:

  • Vitor ([29:12]): "The announcement that... Trump [is] now going to be running the country is the craziest thing I have ever heard."

• On Betrayal of "America First" Voters:

  • Vitor ([45:37]): "I don't think any of these guys voted for regime change in Venezuela... We wanted the border hardened, we wanted the economy better, we wanted prices down. We're just not getting all the things we wanted..."

Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:36] – Trump’s public rationale for intervention: oil and business interests
• [01:34] – Cohen breaks down the real beneficiaries and hypocrisy
• [07:03–26:41] – Ben Rhodes interview: motives, legality, imperial precedent, Congress’s inaction
• [14:52] – Rhodes on pro-war framing and the risk of falling for old dichotomies ("you're for the dictator")
• [18:18] – Rhodes on US as an autocratic imperial power
• [19:56] – On Maria Machado’s fate and the fake democracy argument
• [21:29] – On US officials’ macho rhetoric and its deeper dangers
• [24:36] – On the necessity of political, not procedural, opposition to Trump
• [27:13–46:52] – Tommy Vitor interview: on-the-ground summary, lack of post-invasion plan, hypocrisy, oil markets
• [31:09, 43:47] – Discussion on the fate of Venezuelan oil and who it actually benefits
• [45:05] – Trump's betrayal of voters’ domestic expectations

Summary & Takeaway

This episode provides a thorough critique of Trump’s Venezuela intervention, emphasizing:

• The stark contrast between Trump’s anti-war campaign promises and his embrace of old-school regime change.
• The self-serving, donor-centric motivation behind the operation—largely benefitting oil companies, not American workers or consumers.
• The disturbing normalization of executive overreach, as traditional checks (Congress, judiciary) stand down.
• Dangerous historical echoes of imperialism and its destabilizing consequences both for US democracy and international order.
• Calls for the Democratic Party and the public to reframe the debate—not just on procedural grounds, but on substantive betrayal of Trump’s own voters and the real cost to ordinary Americans.

The episode closes with calls to political action, urging Americans to demand accountability and resist the normalization of kleptocratic and imperial policies.

For deeper dives into the international ramifications and evolving details, the host recommends following Pod Save the World with guests Ben Rhodes and Tommy Vitor.