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Brian Tyler Cohen
Donald Trump's shutdown gambit gets fully exposed. And I have three interviews. I interview Wes Moore, Dan Pfeiffer, and Fox's Jessica Tarlov. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to no Lie. We've got full mask off on Trump and Republicans. So the quick summary is government shuts down because the Republicans want to cut funding for Affordable Care act subsidies. Democrats want it restored. Without that funding, health care costs are going to double, triple, quadruple, or more and more. And this is an 8020 issue. 8 in 10Americans want these subsidies restored so that health care does not become more expensive. Makes sense. Republicans don't want to restore it, though, because making health care too expensive is literally the goal. They have been trying to hobble the ACA for 15 years, but it's too popular, so they have to make it less popular by making it too expensive. Hence the standoff. But an added consequence of the shutdown is that funding for food stamps or the SNAP program doesn't get allocated, which means that 42 million Americans won't be able to eat. And suddenly Republicans see a glimmer of hope in that because they can use the urgency of getting the government reopened immediately without an ACA extension to fund snap. So that's what they did. Republicans said, look, we, the Republicans wanna feed Americans, but we can't do it until the government is open and we have access to that funding.
So you better just reopen it right.
Away because we don't have time to spare. But there was a small problem. There is a contingency fund, and that is in place so that in the event that there's no funding for snap, people still get fed. And this is exactly that scenario we find ourselves in. But Republicans don't want to use that contingency fund because, remember, they want starving Americans to serve as leverage to reopen the government immediately without health care. So they say, we can't use the contingency fund.
It's illegal.
And of course, we all know how deferential the MAGA GOP is to the law. And so once there's even the utterance of dipping into that contingency fund being illegal, well, you know that these champions for law and order drew their red line there. But then two separate judges in Rhode island and Massachusetts ruled that not only can they use the contingency fund, but they must use the contingency fund, which poses a bit of a problem for Republicans because they were using the prospect.
Of this thing being illegal as a.
Way to avoid having to do it. But now their cover is gone. And so what does Trump do?
I shit you not.
He appeals the lawsuit saying that snap phones have to go out. He appeals, he is fighting the judge who said that people have to be fed. And so now we're in different territory because before he at least had some plausible deniability to withhold food assistance. And granted, that was fake and complete bullshit, of course, but it was still an excuse. But now things are different because now it's clear that they're simply fighting to not feed people. Now this administration is just fully mask off depriving 42 million Americans of food because they openly and nakedly want their hunger to serve as political leverage. Like I don't know how to describe this other than subhuman. Trump is facilitating the starvation of Americans as a tool to take away Americans health care. And to think this guy ran as a populist. Truly incredible stuff. And being clear eyed about all of this is important for two reasons. One, from a political perspective, Senate Democrats need to recognize that while the shutdown may be causing pain, that capitulating to Trump and Republicans will only cause more pain because then health care subsidies are gone and Democrats have surrendered their only leverage to get it back. And that would be reason enough unto itself not to cave.
Right.
But consider too, Democrats just won a blue wave election at a time when the country overwhelmingly blamed Trump for the shutdown. Meaning the longer this goes on, the worse it gets. Not for Democrats, but for Trump. So the notion that Democrats should willfully release the pressure on Trump and to do so for a guy who's trying to take health care away is just political malpractice. Democrats in the Senate need to hold the line. The second reason here that this is worth talking about is that Americans more broadly, outside of the Senate, the rest.
Of us need to know what the.
End game here is for the gop. Their goal is not to help people, it's not to keep their health care affordable. It is expressly the opposite. The pain is the goal because they need the ACA to feel unaffordable for people so that it becomes less popular, so that they have the political cover to hobble it. They want to make this all as painful as possible because that's a pretext to open the government without any health care assurances. The pain is the point. These are not good faith negotiators. They are arsonists. And Americans are waking up to the fact that they were gaslit on the issue of affordability. And so now the onus is on.
Us to make sure that Americans see.
That they're being gaslit on this issue, too. It worked in the 2025 election. It can work in the 2026 election. We just need to make sure that we are making the case. And frankly, Trump and Republicans are making it easy for us. Next up are my interviews with Wes Moore, Dan Pfeiffer, and Jessica Tarlov.
No Lie is brought to you by Aura Frames. Now, the reason that I love Aura Frames so much is because it's personal to me. I gave my family an aura frame last year and they've been able to stay on top of everything that I've been doing. If I've gone anywhere, they've been able to follow along. If I've met anybody, they've been able to see it. And they've also been able to stay on top of what's happening with my dog. And most of my pictures that are uploaded onto the Aura frame are of my dog. And now you too can give your family and friends an aura frame. And you can personalize that gift. You can add a message to the box before it arrives. You can also preload photos even before it ships so that there's nothing they have to do by the time they get it. You can share photos and videos effortlessly straight from your phone all year long. And there's a gift box included. So every frame comes packaged in a premium gift box with no price tag named number one by Wirecutter. You can save on the perfect gift by visiting auraframes.com for a limited time. Listeners can get $20 off their best selling Carver mat frame with code Aura20. That's a U R A frames.com promo code Aura20. Support the show by mentioning us at checkout. Terms and conditions apply. I'm joined now by the governor of Maryland, Wes Moore. Governor, thanks so much for taking the time.
Wes Moore
It's great to be with you, Brian. Thanks, man.
Brian Tyler Cohen
So you have an announcement that I want to give the floor to you for on an issue that I've been particularly focused on.
Wes Moore
Absolutely. You know, at a time when we were watching Donald Trump commence this assault and not just this assault on our state, but honestly, this assault on our democracy, you know, I have said, and I will continue to say that Maryland will not just sit on its hands while Donald Trump continues to pick and choose which states have fair maps and which states don't. When he did, when we know he's just trying to rig the rules because he knows it's the only way for him to win an election. And so I Have I have ordered the creation of a Governor's Redistricting Advisory Committee here in the state of Maryland, where I have assembled a group of bipartisan leaders which are going to be chaired by Senator Angela also Brooks, who is going to spend time listening to Marylanders and going all around and, and hearing where Marylanders are on this issue. But. But with a very firm understanding that come next November in Maryland, we will have fair maps. And as all these states are having, are going through their process of deciding whether or not they have fair maps or not, I'm here to say that so will Maryland.
Brian Tyler Cohen
So this is great news. And it sounds like, because you had mentioned that this would be in place for November of 2026, that things are getting off right now, that this will actually account for the upcoming midterm election cycle. Is that correct?
Wes Moore
That's exactly right. The work commences immediately. And so the committee is already now working, pulling together what they need to ensure that we can understand where the maps are in Maryland and making sure that the people have a right to come next November, truly have the representation that represents their interest and not allowing Donald Trump to just simply rig elections. And so in this time, I've decided that I'm not going to spend my time nor intellectual energy trying to say why we cannot move, but we are going to spend our time and our intellectual energy actually moving and making sure that the people of our state, that their voices are heard.
Brian Tyler Cohen
We've seen a lot of different avenues taken by different governors or different states. Here in California, we have Prop 50 on the ballot. In Virginia, the state legislature already moved to pass pass a bill in one session. Of course, we need two consecutive sessions for that to be a change to the Constitution. But there are different avenues being tried in different states in accordance with whatever their state's laws are. Why did you opt to go the committee route in Maryland?
Wes Moore
Yeah, because when you. The reason that I ordered the Governor's Redistricting Advisory Commission is because this is a necessary and important first step that we have to be able to take. Because the thing that we know is that in order for lines to be drawn in our state, it requires legislative appropriations approval. And so I'm just using my power as the governor to say, let's make sure that that legislative process is informed. Let's make sure that legislative process is actually backed by the will of the people. Let's make sure that legislative process actually addresses the challenges that I think exist. Because what people have to remember is that the legislative maps that we have right now in the state of Maryland were actually drawn in three days. And if you look at the congressional maps that we have around the country, less than 10% of congressional seats are actually competitive. And that includes what we see now in the state of Maryland. And so I think it is absolutely high time that Maryland say that if these other states are going to take a look at this in a mid cycle, mid decade process, then the state of Maryland should do the exact same thing. And so I would argue that the process that we will have here coming out of the GRAC will be, will be even more thorough than even what we saw from the last time that Maryland took a look at its maps.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Now, I have been speaking about Maryland quite a bit because there is one legislator in the state legislature over there in Maryland who has presented himself as a bulwark, and that's Bill Ferguson. To what extent will he serve as an impediment to the advisory commission being able to do its work successfully?
Wes Moore
Well, I've actually asked Senator Ferguson to be a member of the, of the commission. And so I've asked him. I've asked the speaker of the House, Adrian Jones. We're also going to have the, the, our former Attorney General, Brian Farsh, serving the commission, as well as the Republican mayor of Cumberland. And so this is going to be a bipartisan commission where we know that we're going to get to the right answer for the people of the state of Maryland. And the thing that I know with Senator Ferguson is that, you know, we agree that we are in a crisis moment. We agree that we are watching this assault from Donald Trump that is having not just economic implications on the state of Maryland in a way that is not hitting any other state, but also an assault on our democracy. That we have seen how Donald Trump has now fired over 15,000 federal workers in the state of Maryland alone since he's been in office. That we've seen a federal government shutdown that has taken place now for over a month that has had significant impacts, not just on the people of this country, but specifically for the state of Maryland, because I have over 260,000 federal workers inside of my state. And so the Senate president and I agree that we are in a crisis. I think what I want to be able to show is I have an urgency in the way we are dealing with this crisis, and I have an aggression in the way we are saying that we are going to defend our democracy and we are not going to allow Donald Trump to pick and choose which states go through redistricting processes. So I have a. I have a very real sense of not just urgency, but a very real focus on making sure that in this moment, Maryland will not bend the knee to Donald Trump. We will go through our process, too, and ensure that we have fair masks come next November.
Brian Tyler Cohen
And I could just say, from my part, and this is like, my personal opinion on this, is that I do hope that when this advisory committee comes together and Bill Ferguson is on it, that he recognizes that it is important here not just to say that we stand for good governance and that we should expect that to just happen in a vacuum, that we have to be realistic about the threats that we're confronting right now. And that is that we live in a binary system. It is one side is fighting, and we can either choose to do nothing, we can either capitulate, or we can fight back. And so we don't get to choose a third option. And unfortunate though that may be. And so I hope that he's seeing the urgency of this moment right now, not giving excuses as to why we can't get to yes, but finding ways to get to yes in light of, you know, the attacks on our democracy that we're contending with at the hands of Republicans. And this is not theoretical. We have seen this happen in Texas. We have seen the maps get redrawn in North Carolina. We've seen the maps get drawn in Ohio. We've seen them get redrawn in Missouri. And so we can choose to do nothing and just hope that we can appeal to our better angels. But the reality of the situation is that it's happening. We live in a binary system. And if you don't choose to do anything, then you're basically giving a green light for Republicans to entrench a permanent, to engineer a permanent majority in the House forever. And so this is the time to fight back. And so I hope that he uses his seat on that commission smartly and does the right thing that actually meets the urgency of the moment that we're in right now.
Wes Moore
Well, and I, and I agree, Brian, that, you know, we, we are in a situation that, you know, I agree in theory. I don't like gerrymandering. I think gerrymandering is a boring in theory. But the reality is I don't live in the theoretical. I live in the reality. I live in the reality right now that Donald Trump is trying to rig this system right in front of our faces. And I cannot stand and sit back while we are allowing this, while we're allowing this to take place. And by trying to rig the system. He is looking at the pain that his administration has caused, the fact that everything is more expensive, the fact that we are watching health care being pulled away from our people, the fact that he is trying to illegally trying to take away food assistance for our children until we sued him and actually ended up beating him and winning in court. So now he has to. So a judge is now forcing Donald Trump to do his job. But we are watching this pain that he is inflicting. But what the president is trying to do by trying to rig the system is he's trying to make the pain permanent. And we cannot allow that to happen. That I agree that in this moment we have an absolute obligation. And while I look forward to working with the Senate president, I also know that this is a big body, and I look forward to working with him and all of the other members of the Maryland General assembly to ensure that we, in this moment in Maryland understand the assignment and understand what this moment requires.
Brian Tyler Cohen
And I would also add, you know, I also think that gerrymandering is abhorrent. And I think we also have to recognize, though, that Republicans had the opportunity to pass legislation along with the Democrats for the for the People act that would ban partisan gerrymandering nationwide. And the reality is, if they want to bring that legislation forward, I'm sure every single Democrat would support it. And so that's not to say that we don't recognize and abhor the scourge that is gerrymandering, but what we won't do that supersedes all of that is unilaterally disarm. And we've seen that unilateral disarmament happen across the country. You know, the Democratic weapons are in large part California, New York, both have independent redistricting commissions, Colorado, independent redistricting commissions. Meanwhile, you've got states like Texas and Florida that not only don't have independent redistricting commissions, but are gerrymandering themselves on top of previous gerrymanders. So the call to action here is to recognize that we can't unilaterally disarm in light of what the Republicans are doing right now. And with that said, given the action that you're taking in Maryland, what would your message be to other governors who've not yet stepped up and recognized the place that they have in this broader fight?
Wes Moore
My message to everybody is take a stand, understand what's at stake right now. And I believe deeply that history will not remember this federal administration well. History will remember them for the cruelty and the brutality of that they have inflicted upon the people of this country. They will remember this attempt at trying to completely destroy our democracy. History will not remember this administration well. But I will say to all those who are choosing to capitulate, to all those who are just choosing to sit on your hands, to all those who are just sitting in the corner and hoping that the beating stops, my message to all of them is this. History will remember you. Even worse, that this becomes a moment for us to use our voice. This is a moment for us to remember the type of foundations that we stand on, the type of shoulders that we stand on, that there are people who came before us who are hoping at this moment that we don't blink and there are people who are going to come after us, who are hoping that we don't bend the knee and this becomes our moral obligation, our legal obligation for all of us who have the honor of sitting in these seats in these moments, people are looking at us and wondering, do we understand what is at stake? And I am very proud to say that in the state of Maryland, we are showing that we don't just understand, but that we're unafraid to lead in this moment.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Perfectly put. One more question here on slightly different topic, and that is the fact that just a few days ago, we saw Trump engage in his Great Gatsby party at Mar A Lago. We watched as he remarbled the Lincoln bathroom. We watched as he's, of course, continuing to build his $350 million ballroom, continues to encrust the Oval Office in gold leafing, hosts these crypto dinners where he's doubled his net worth, is retrofitting a Qatari jet to the tune of a billion dollars that, of course, American taxpayers are paying for, bought Kristi Noem a pair of Gulfstream jets to the tune of a cool $172 million. And so in light of all of these, these instances of opulence that Trump is surrounding himself with, what do you say, given the fact that at the same time we're seeing this administration go down this path, where they are depriving SNAP recipients across the country of the food assistance they need to survive, where, of course, this administration has ripped Medicaid away from 17 million Americans, where they have left the fate of health care for those who rely on ACA subsidies for 24 million Americans in doubt. And they may very well see their health care subsidies double, triple, quadruple, or even more. And so, given that disparity, what is your message in light of what we're seeing right now?
Jessica Tarlov
No.
Wes Moore
I think, as Maya Angelou said, when someone tells you who they are, the first time believe them. You know, the same time that we are watching ballrooms being built, I was spending my time in Bowie, Maryland, at a food bank and meeting with a. You know, meeting with a mother who is going through cancer treatments who was explaining that she now had to go to her children for help because she said she could not make this and do this on her own. That at the same time that we were. That he was at Great Gatsby dinners, that he's throwing in honor of himself, that I was actually meeting with the people who are running mobile food units, who are spending their time around military bases because there are people, military personnel who now are on food stamps and need those in order to survive. People who are willing to put on the uniform, people are willing to put the flag of this country on their shoulder. People who, frankly, were willing to take an oath that the president was not willing to take, who now are on food stamps, that this is real for people. Just two days ago, speaking with a parent of a child with special needs who is now concerned that all supports that she has to be able to support her child are going to be yanked away by this administration so billionaires can get a tax cut. So I am the. You know, this is not just going to stop just because the beatings will not stop if we sit quiet.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Wes Moore
This is a time when people need to understand that leadership is going to matter. And again, my background is I'm a. You know, my background is I'm a soldier. That's. That's what I did before I ran for, before I ever thought about running for office just a couple years ago. And so when you are attacked, you do not just sit there and take it. You mobilize. And that is the thing that I want for the people of this country to do. It is to mobilize and to understand what is at stake and to understand that if we do not push back, it will get worse. And the only way this stops, the only way we can break the trend, is by showing that there is a different direction, there's a different path that we can go, and that we have to protect our people, because that protection is not going to come from the Trump administration.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I appreciate the moral clarity here, and thank you so much for using your position of power to fight fire with fire here. That is something that is so desperately needed. It's an issue, again, that you and I have been speaking about, that I've spoken with nearly every other governor in a blue state where we have the opportunity to fight fire with fire that there hasn't been that much movement. But I'm grateful for the announcement that you made today. So thanks again so much for the time.
Wes Moore
I really appreciate it. Thank you so much for your leadership.
Brian Tyler Cohen
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Dan Pfeiffer
Thanks for being here.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Live at CrookedCon.
Dan Pfeiffer
Live at CrookedCon.
Brian Tyler Cohen
So in the aftermath of this past Tuesday's election, I'm seeing a potential opportunity kind of present itself in that we've seen that this election was really a referendum on affordability. The candidates who were able to tout that all won their elections, whether it's Abigail Spanberger, Mikey Sherrill or Zoran Mamdani And Trump has been posed with this idea of, you know, this issue's resonating on the left because people were promised affordability, and by you in 2024, you didn't deliver. And instead of kind of recognizing where he went wrong, which of course manifested itself into a wave election for Democrats, he's doubled down and begun saying that, you know, the economy is great, everything's great. I'm doing everything perfectly. Nobody could do it as well as me, and I should be given prizes. So do you think that there will be a point at which Trump is gonna change course and learn some lessons from 2025, or because he's led by his ego, is it gonna be just double, triple, quadruple down on everything I'm doing is perfect and stay the course?
Dan Pfeiffer
I think Donald Trump is substantively and psychologically incapable of having an effective affordability message substantively, because right now, he is refusing to open the government because in order to continue raising premium costs, he would rather starve children and have a closed government than give people lower health care costs. And he's in court fighting to keep high prices on people with his tariffs. And if he loses in the Supreme Court, he's already said he's got his lawyers working on other ways to raise prices on people. But almost more importantly is to have an effective affordability message, he has to be willing to admit that prices are high. To admit that prices are high is to admit that he has not yet succeeded.
Jessica Tarlov
He has to.
Dan Pfeiffer
And the man is 79 years old. At no point in those 79 years has he admitted fault for a single thing. So I don't think it's gonna be now.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Look, this is still politics, like, presumably you would want, you would need to win. And granted, I understand why Trump thinking we never have to admit fault, we can just lie to our supporters until the end of the year. It worked for him after January 6th. I mean, like, after the 2020 election, lying to your supporters that there was never any introspection. And he continues to this day to lie, but more broadly, I mean, like, they lost in 2025, in every seat, we saw swings that were, you know, on average, what, like, 15 points to the left? And so something's got to give. Does he just ignore it and keep barreling forward?
Dan Pfeiffer
Well, I think he can lie to his supporters till the cows come home, and he'll probably succeed at that, right? Like, you know, January 6th, if, you know, his supporters even know he's wrong about prices, but they don't care because they support Him.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Dan Pfeiffer
The fact is, the reason we had this big shift is there is a swath of voters who don't really like Donald Trump. They told voters that the pollsters, they disapproved him in 2024. They think he's probably kind of corrupt, a bit of a buffoon. But they did believe that Donald Trump would do a better job of lowering their costs than Kamala Harris did, either because they thought Trump was a businessman or they thought Kamala Harris was too associated with the Biden economic record to do something different. And he's failed those people, and those people voted against him this time. And so that's the swing. And you just. You can BS your way through a lot of things in life, but you cannot BS your way through high prices because voters see it every single day. They go to the store.
Brian Tyler Cohen
That's an issue that plagued Democrats in.
Dan Pfeiffer
The last few years. Yes. And you know whose economic message he's doing? Joe Biden's.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right. Right.
Dan Pfeiffer
Right. Everything's fine. Don't ignore the pain you have. Look at all these other good things that are happening. That's just not gonna work. You can't. Well, I mean, it's even worse to say, to tell people the prices aren't high. Like, they know they're high. They're not gonna wear solved eggs. Right. With it.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Dan Pfeiffer
He's tweeting. People are right now figuring out how they're going to pay for Thanksgiving dinner. He's truthing out the fact that your Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than it was last year. No one is going to believe that because that's not what they're going to experience.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right.
Dan Pfeiffer
He doesn't understand the difference between the actual price and the rate of growth. The rate of growth, price growth has come down since he's taken office, and certainly much to the work that Biden did before he took over, but the prices remain high. Right. And that's just like. That's reality, and he's not gonna be able to deal with that.
Brian Tyler Cohen
So nothing changes, nothing gives. And the Republicans continue to run a campaign where they just pray at the altar of Donald Trump and head into 2026 with the same lack of messaging that led to them getting demolished.
Dan Pfeiffer
Well, this is the question, right? Which is the election on Tuesday changed a little bit about how I'm thinking about Trump in my head. I think myself and a lot of us have been thinking that this was the first year of his presidency. That's not the right way to think about it. Right. This is not Barack Obama in 2009 or even Donald Trump in 2017. This is George W. Bush in 2005. He is a second term president. This is the fifth year of his presidency. And this is an indication that he's headed towards lame duck status. And you can see the evidence of his lame duck status everywhere. It's in this election, it's in his suppressed poll numbers, it's in the fight that his coalition is kind of breaking apart left and right over various issues. And the question will be, will Republicans stick with him to the end in 2026? I'm not, you know, they definitely want to get through the filing deadline so that he doesn't endorse a primary challenger to them, but will they find a way to break from him? And the thing is, Trump is the other reason he can't fix his problems is one thing you would do is you would cut a deal with Democrats on something they agree on that deals with prices. The most obvious thing being, oh, I don't know, the premium, the giant premium increase you're instituting. But he doesn't know how to compromise with Democrats, is unwilling to do it. So he has no out here. You know, will the Republicans distance themselves from him? Maybe, you know, I mean, certainly people like Susan Collins who have done it already might do it. But it's a really interesting question because they have stuck with Trump because they needed him when he was on the ballot. He's never gonna be on the ballot again.
Brian Tyler Cohen
On the issue of affordability more broadly, we have seen some instances where Republicans have come forward and just, I mean, it feels very contrived where they're like, you know what? I'm focused on affordability. I mean, like, right in the aftermath of an election where Zoran and Mikey Sheryl and Abigail Spanberger all were focused on this stuff, now Republicans see that and they're like, ooh, yeah, I do that too. And so there is some worry that as we head toward 2026, that if everybody's learning the lesson, if Democrats learn The lesson from 2024, which was not to focus on nebulous issues, but rather to home in on these affordability issues, Republicans now learned in 2025 that that was responsible for all of the Democratic wins. If everyone's saying the same thing, how does somebody stand out in an environment where both candidates are basically learning the only lesson that we needed to learn from both election cycles and kind of parroting the same talking points?
Dan Pfeiffer
Well, one, one party's in power when prices have not gone down and one is not right. That's ultimately how the Republicans work.
Brian Tyler Cohen
And if you're, if you're a Republican, it's going to be hard to have any, any leg to stand on if you are right now presiding with full control of government. They can't even point to like, you know, Democrats screwing them over in the House or something. They have full control. There's nobody they can point to.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah, it's a very challenging position for them to be in. What I think they will likely do is they'll say like they want to talk about affordability, but instead they will try to, as they tried in 2018 when the main issue was health care, is they will try to change the subject. Remember the caravan in 2018 that was coming? Like there are going to be something like that that will, I don't, I don't know that it'll work. It's kind of hard to convince people about something that's more important than affordability, but that's more likely that they will try to change the subject to a more favorable issue for them than to actually change their positions on the economy.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Does the 2025, Tuesday, November, you know, this past Tuesday. Does, does that inform how you're thinking about what 2028 presidential candidates might, might do as we move forward?
Dan Pfeiffer
Not yet. I think like those are huge wins. Those are all. Although other than the, the races in Georgia, those are all state, all wins that happened in states. We absolutely. That we. They're blue states, right? They are. You know, they're states that Kamala Harris even election, she lost one by seven points.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I mean Pennsylvania five two Supreme Court retention. Yeah. I mean nobody really thinks of Pennsylvania as a, as a red state.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah. But also the other than one time in history, no one's ever lost a straight retention vote. And so I don't want to over read that like one. Like I am so excited about these. I am really. And the thing that makes me most excited is that there is real evidence that it's not just turnout, that where we want is we actually persuaded Trump voters.
Wes Moore
Yeah.
Dan Pfeiffer
7% in Virginia and New Jersey, 12% in California, 9% in New York City. Like they're actual people who voted for Trump a year ago who voted for Democrats. And that is a super positive sign. I do worry that we're, that just like in 2022 we will say, look, stop all your worrying about the party brand and trust on issues. We won anyway it solves. And 2022, we looked at that election and said and it gave us a reason to not deal with hard questions like Joe Biden's age and electability. We cannot let these elections, as wonderful as they were, defer us from those longer conversations. Because Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spamberger were well funded statewide candidates who are running for governor, right. They have a. Governors often, can often survive a toxic party brand because Governor, it's a sort of a little bit less partisan state issue than someone who's in the offices. Some of the Senate and House in the. And even in the Senate arcanas will have enough money to they can show where they're different than what people think of the Democratic Party brand. But in the House those are largely generic Democrat versus generic Republican races. And if the Democratic Party brand still sucks, that is going to limit the ceiling of what we can actually win and what could end up being a very good year. So I think we have a lot of work to do here.
Brian Tyler Cohen
If you had a magic wand and could do one thing right now to fix a brand, what would that be?
Dan Pfeiffer
I'll give you three things. One is I would develop a Mamdani like affordability agenda. That doesn't mean his policies per se, but simple, bold, quasi controversial ideas. We need like four ideas, right?
Brian Tyler Cohen
I think the controversial part is very important.
Dan Pfeiffer
Like if like Kamala Harris had an amazing first time home buyer tax credit, she did a press event for no one ever talked about it again because it didn't generate controversy. Like the beauty of Mondani's ideas is they generated controversy and therefore people talked about him and people hear it. So that's one. The second is a similar anti corruption political reform plan. Right. We've got to get big money and corporate power out of politics. We got to deal with the lobbyist problem. We have to show voters that we are going to change the broken political system, not just defend it. And the third thing is that we need younger faces at the forefront. Right. It is not a surprise that the mayor was. The new mayor of New York is 34. The new governor of Virginia is 46. The new governor of New Jersey is in her early 50s. Like we need people who, who are younger faces who can relate to people who have energy and are in tune with sort of the culture in the conversation in this country.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Why do you think that there are still folks in the Democratic Party who presumably want to help the party, want to move this whole process forward who are kind of sticking begrudgingly in their seats that would otherwise give way to younger, more dynamic candidates being. We just saw Nancy Pelosi a couple of days ago announce that she's not seeking retirement. But look like, how many times have Democrats faster died in office than dare cede an inch of power? I mean, there are entire generations who are being skipped because Democrats in office have never ceded power. And we're seeing the potency of a political class, of a millennial political class and Gen Z political class. But like millennials have been shut out of power. And, and when you have someone like Zoron, like this could have happened earlier if not for boomer candidates who decided that they wanted to boom, boom.
Dan Pfeiffer
Heck, we got silent generation candidates hanging around there.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Like, who wanted to be in office for 40 fucking years. Yeah, it's.
Dan Pfeiffer
Look, I think that the people who are sticking around are doing it because they believe they have the seniority and experience to deliver for their voters. I think they're missing the big picture. Right. And there's just a point where you certainly don't have the energy to or even the cultural relevance to do the job particularly well. And so. But we like, that's why it's important that younger candidates are challenging these sort of like the primaries are good. And look, we're going to have a generational primary in Massachusetts between Ed Markey and Seth Moulton and maybe some others. And if the voters look at both those candidates and they decide that Ed Markey's the guy, then that's great.
Brian Tyler Cohen
At least there was democracy. Right? That's the whole issue that I think was plaguing Democrats before this. If it feels like somebody was anointed where a lot of the issues.
Dan Pfeiffer
So I think the primaries are good and that's part of the process here.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Well, look, highly recommend for anybody who has not yet subscribed to Pod Save America's YouTube channel. I'm going to put that link right here on the screen and also in the post description. Dan, as always, it's a pleasure to talk to you. Appreciate your time. No LIE is brought to you by Shopify. So when I started this podcast, it seemed like I kind of had to figure everything out on my own. I had to figure out scripts and setups and filming logos, all of which was very overwhelming. And every single day seemed to introduce a new decision that needed an immediate answer. Finding the right tool to help not only you, but simplifies everything is such a game changer. And for millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce platforms in the US from household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands just getting started, including my own website, Brian Tyler Cohen.com for you. You can get started with your own design studio. With hundreds of ready to use templates. Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store to match your brand style. It can accelerate your content creation. Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions, page headlines, and even enhance your product photography. You can get the word out like you have a full marketing team behind you. You can easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling. And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and everything in between. If you're ready to sell, you are ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com BTC go to shopify.com BT shopify.com BTC I'm joined now by co host of Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and also co host of Fox's the Five, Jessica Tarlov. Jessica, thanks for joining me.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, it's so good to be here.
Brian Tyler Cohen
So you have one of the most important and yet also one of the most unenviable jobs by sitting with four conservative co hosts on Fox. So first and foremost, in the aftermath of Tuesday's election results, is there any begrudging though it may be, is there any acknowledgement from folks who you work with that something has gone terribly wrong with how this administration, the Republican Party more broadly, has kind of comported itself up to this point?
Jessica Tarlov
There have been flares of it. I mean, if you spent all day watching conservative media, you would see pockets certainly like Bret BAIER and Martha MacCallum talking about it. Dana Perino was talking about it on the Five. And then people, I feel like, go to their corners sometimes and say, well, these were blue states and this was expected. And then I, you know, reminded people, we're talking about a Mississippi state house, we're talking about public commissioners in Georgia, we're talking about Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania. Yeah, Pennsylvania, school boards, retaining Supreme Court justices, New Hampshire, you know, all the things. And you know, some eyes then glaze over. But I do think that it is being processed because the way that the Republicans have ended up in this position is going straight through the main argument that they always make, which is that we're better for the economy. Right. And most of them are inherently anti tariff. And Donald Trump has kind of shoved that down their throats and it's having this huge effect on cost of living and morale in the country, our allies, all of it. And so I feel like there are all these different tentacles that are actually intertwining or coming together with an election night set of results like that. Because it wasn't just winning or getting by, like people thought. I don't know what your expectation was in New Jersey, but I thought, okay, maybe Mikey Sherrill wins three to five points.
Brian Tyler Cohen
That was my expectation.
Jessica Tarlov
Right. She'll get by.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
But it will be.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I was worried that she would win the same margin as Phil Murphy. As Phil Murphy, or that Kamala Harris did. And I don't want that to be our benchmark because 2024 was such an underperformance.
Jessica Tarlov
Well, totally. And New Jersey should be a new state. Like, we're talking about the Tri State area. I'm a New Yorker, you're a New Jersey guy. Like, we're supposed to be a certain way, or we have. Historically, in the two states that trended the furthest towards Donald Trump were New York and New Jersey. So there was a lot of work to do. Counties that had never gone red, that went red. And so when I saw 13 points and it wasn't even that they could blame the candidates, Some of them have said that, well, we ran bad candidates. Winsome. Earl Sears is a bad candidate. Jack Cittarelli is actually a pretty good candidate. He got close to Phil Murphy. He had support. He was flipping. Some group support that I was surprised at. I thought he closed terribly by just saying, by doing Kamala Harris on the View, actually, like, Donald Trump gets an A, and I wouldn't do anything different, even though he's taking my infrastructure spending. Like, did you learn nothing from what happened to us?
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
By seeing 13 points and then 15 in Virginia for Abigail Spanberger, I was like, this is real walloping.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Well, the part, I think that's most striking about all of this, especially kind of doubling down on this idea that, oh, these were just blue states, which suggests that there's not gonna be any course correction. And granted, that's been a longstanding theme in the Republican Party. After Trump won in 2020, there was no course correction. They all just pretended that Donald Trump won.
Jessica Tarlov
But it worked out for them.
Brian Tyler Cohen
It ultimately did work out for them. But. But in this situation right now, the irony is that the reason that Trump got so far ahead and that Republicans got so far ahead is because the Democrats, and I include myself in this, were trying to convince people that the situation was much better than it actually was. Like, the economic situation in this country. And when you tell people that actually know everything is fine and they're feeling like it's not, there's gonna create not just this disparity, but they're not gonna trust you on anything else you say, economics notwithstanding. And so do you find that kind of weird that Republicans are right now doing the same thing that they were able to capitalize on just this past election cycle in 2024?
Jessica Tarlov
Totally. Like as if they've blacked out the whole experience. And I've said that multiple times on the five you guys rightly so told me that showing up and touting a great GDP number or inflation coming down is not enough to get people to support you on election day. Like it's a great talking pointing to.
Brian Tyler Cohen
A stock market where in a country where most people don't own stocks or.
Jessica Tarlov
Or certainly not the stock are making them bazillions of dollars. Right. Like maybe their pension fund is invested. So it's felt very strange to me. And another element of that, and this is actually a bit of a pat on the back I think for our party, which I feel like we rarely do. Democrats were very self reflective starting from the second that Donald Trump. It was a lot of self flagellation.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah. I mean it, it lasted for, until, I mean it's still, until election.
Jessica Tarlov
It's still and it's not done. I mean and we're here at crookedcon and every panel is infused with an element of how do we do better and how do we make sure that we don't repeat those mistakes like telling people not only about the economy, but that the border doesn't matter because everybody is happier right now that the border is closed from a messaging standpoint for sure. But once people I guess feel safe to talk about it, they're like, I want a better working, functioning asylum system. But we couldn't have a quarter of a million people coming in here on a monthly basis. And Joe Biden acted too slowly. And I think especially if you're trying to talk to people who you disagree with, which is how I spend most of my time, being able to admit those things gives you space to then be able to say something contrary to what they're doing. So the lack of self reflection in that sense, like not meeting us where we were because I think that we set a very good example for what you should be doing after you lose, which is saying like, oh, this happened. I wonder why. Let's do a lot of research, let's try different media things, you know, whatever.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I Mean, it was that or storm.
Jessica Tarlov
The Capitol, which is just not our vibe.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Not our vibe.
Jessica Tarlov
My husband was saying to me, he's like, do you think we have to get a gun? And I was like, I don't know. What would we do with it? He's like, someone could teach us. Right? Like a bunch of liberals.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Like, I mean, look where you work. I'm sure anybody would be glad to.
Jessica Tarlov
I could find a teacher.
Brian Tyler Cohen
You could find a teacher.
Jessica Tarlov
No, but that's the kind of mentality that I think a lot of people have about this feeling that we're teetering on the brink of something. And so we're in this happiness moment from the election. But I don't know, it's like, maybe still tenuous.
Brian Tyler Cohen
And granted, this was an election, like, this was an election about New York and New Jersey and California and Virginia. I mean, I'm sorry. And Virginia and Georgia. But at the same time, you know, there are. There's a really important election coming up in 2026 on that point. You know, the difference between the right wing media ecosystem and the left wing media ecosystem is that the right was largely successful at insulating its viewers from a lot of the reality of what was going on. I mean, the whole idea of being able to convince people that an election that was free and fair was stolen because there's ballot dumps or because there is, you know, like some foreign dictator was interfering or bamboo ballots or suitcases, like, I mean, the conspiracy theories went on and on, but they were successful.
Jessica Tarlov
At and continue to still nearly 60%.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right to this day.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah.
Brian Tyler Cohen
And so given that point that they are able to convince some folks of an alternate reality, how are you thinking about that in terms of what we're seeing right now, which is these Republicans continue to try and convince people that an economy that is not doing better for people somehow is. And where is that disparity? Like, why isn't it working right now in the same way that it worked for, you know, leading up to January 6, 2021? They're so good at gaslighting people. They're so good at convincing them that they live in an alternate reality. Why is it breaking down right now?
Jessica Tarlov
Well, I mean, a lot of the people who ended up switching are in that kind of swing voter group. Like, I was just listening to Sarah Longwell on her panel, you know, talking about this, and she emphasizes, as she does on the Bulwark, swing voters actually exist. And these are people who are open to hearing opposing ideas and the mood right now. I'm sure you saw that on the exit poll. Like, what do you think of Democrats? They suck. Who did you vote for? Every single Democrat on my ballot. And you know, this is a, an electorate that's super tuned in. Right. It's not even a midterm election, it's an off year election. And these are the people who are showing up to vote. So, you know, that's very meaningful to them. But they are harnessing something and they're seeing something about Donald Trump's popular popularity. It's like, you know, I've been talking about it extensively, how unpopular is how unpopular the policies are. But the real manifestation of that is obviously an election night. And that's the easy, that's the only poll that matters in all of this. So you can point to that. But one thing that I try to emphasize, and I think it's important for liberals to do more, is that you can't change their reality. And I don't even really try anymore to say, like, you need to stop thinking what you do about January 6th. Like, it's not worth it to have a fight about whether it was an insurrection or it wasn't an insurrection or when, you know, if Jack Smith had the goods on the Mar A Lago documents or whatever. Like, you have to work with this, the reality that you have, because these are the people who are going to show up to vote. And so I try to kind of mix reality into my commentary while also making it clear that I'm not being disparaging or looking down on anyone. Like, we have to, I guess, do better at opening people up to the idea that we're not those caricatures that we saw in all of the exits. Right. Like preachy and scolding. Yeah, right. Because people will choose someone who doesn't think that they're an idiot.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right.
Jessica Tarlov
So I think that that factors in a lot to how people are receiving information about what's actually going on. And also just using quotes from other people, that's like my favorite thing to do. And I mean, you're, you do tons of research for your show, but when you say like CEO of Walmart, don't take it from me.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right.
Jessica Tarlov
CEO of Walmart.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I literally say that almost every day on my channel. It's like, hey, and don't take it from me, take it from me.
Wes Moore
Right.
Jessica Tarlov
I'm biased.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right, right.
Jessica Tarlov
Like Andy McCarthy says, blah, blah, blah. It's not the same. We both love Mark Elias.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
Fox audience doesn't care about what Mark Elias thinks. But Andy McCarthy or, you know, Jonathan Turley was out there on Mar A Lago document.
Brian Tyler Cohen
You have Marjorie Taylor Greene coming out in saying the Republicans have no plan for health care.
Jessica Tarlov
Like, don't, you know, I feel weird about her, though.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I think that there is.
Jessica Tarlov
She's fun to use.
Brian Tyler Cohen
There is definitely a bit of opportunistic, you know, like, she's clearly angling for something. Nobody turns that, that quickly without openly. That openly without having some ulterior motive. But that notwithstanding, I am curious because in the lead up to the 2024 election, it was a lot of those culture war issues, and, and that's really what Republicans were able to exploit in their victory. Do you think that there's some sense of buyers remorse now, given the fact that, like, this was an entire election where the biggest ad spend was about gender reassignment surgeries among prison inmates and like, and trans athletes, of whom there are 10 in the NCAA, do you think that there's a sense of, like, oh, maybe we got duped by ushering in a political party on the back of an issue that impacts 99.9% of people.
Zero.
And yet, you know, when it comes to issues that actually impact people, like, that's, that, that's not, that was not talked about in the lead up to 2025.
Jessica Tarlov
Well, they, they had no option in 2025 to run a different campaign besides preying upon culture war issues because the economy's doing really badly.
Dan Pfeiffer
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
And the border is secure now. And that was a great thing for Trump to be able to run on. You know, that's why he squashed the bipartisan bill and, you know, made James Langford cry. He was like, no, no, I need this for the election.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I mean, he opened openly, too.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah. I mean, the guy, to his credit, I guess, he doesn't hide these things.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right.
Jessica Tarlov
So when you can't tell people you have more money in your bank account, your groceries are cheaper, you know, you're going, you're going to take a second vacation this year, you have to go to something else. And they were also working with, at least in Virginia, a very bad candidate who I think was not coachable towards any other talking point. I mean, she had said on the record so many inflammatory things about Doge. You know, she said, like, why is everyone so upset about the cuts? It's like, you're the Lieutenant governor of Virginia. You know, everyone in your state works for the federal government, basically. So I think that they were out of options, which makes me wonder about how they'll tackle the midterms.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yes.
Jessica Tarlov
Because that's the real test of this.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Well, now, I mean, is there some sense that, like, there is a really small cynical part of me that's like, okay, we kind of, for lack of a better phrase, kind of blew our load on this one because now, like, the cat's out of the bag. Everybody understands the potency of affordability. There were quite a few Republicans who ran on affordability. Granted, it was in bad faith because Trump had no intention of making housing or rent or groceries more affordable. Electricity prices are up, food prices are up, housing prices, rent prices, all those prices are up because you wanted to engage in a trade war. But they were successful in 2024, Democrats were successful in 2025. And so what does it look like as we head toward 2026 when you have both parties saying the same thing? A winning message from the last two elections, and how do you stand out? How do you overperform when both candidates are gonna lean in on the same exact message?
Jessica Tarlov
I think quality of candidate will really matter. I've been heartened in seeing that we're trying to redux the 2018 camo wave, because that was some of the most exciting. I mean, Mikey, Sheryl and Abigail Spranberger are now governors. Right. And they can't. I mean, Alyssa Slotkin is a senator from Michigan. I love Pat Ryan, and he's kind of been spearheading this with Jason Crowe, getting out there and recruiting people who talk like them and have those kinds of experiences. So I think that that's really smart and the candidate quality is part of it. I think it's under discussed in the wake of the win that the DNC did some good things here and that we need to let up on Ken Martin a little bit about it. I'm not, you know, I'm not close to that world. Like, I get the emails, but I'm not embedded necessarily. But they seem to have taken the approach that Nancy Pelosi always had and was so successful. If you want me there, I'll be there. If you don't, I'll send you some money.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yep.
Jessica Tarlov
And you go about your business. And those are the races that are going to be winnable for us. Is why losing a Jared golden is so tough. Because I don't know anyone who can pull off that seat. Like, to me that we're kissing that goodbye at this point. But when you're hearing it coming from both sides, I think it's going to be the person who is really out there campaigning hard and spending time with you and asking you about how you're doing. That's the mom Donnie thing, right? Just, what's wrong? How can I make your life better? Getting back to basics of not necessarily big government, but effective government. And our panel this morning that Lovett was hosting was called Are We Having Fun Yet? But it was about. Or it was supposed to be about. But I got very sidetracked. It was a crazy cast of characters for one panel, but it was supposed to be about how can we make the Democratic Party cool again or politics cool again. And I felt very sad about the fact that young people in this country don't know what it feels like to love politics or to be excited about a political figure like Obama.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Like, I grew up in the Obama era. I remember being at college organizing buses to go to the polls for Obama in 2008, and then the Affordable Care act passed. And, like, I graduated and I had health care because of him. And also, he's like, you can't not.
Jessica Tarlov
He's just awesome.
Brian Tyler Cohen
He's awesome. And you can't not watch him and just be inspired by what politics could be. But, like, Gen Z's are growing up in a.
Jessica Tarlov
They've only known Trump.
Brian Tyler Cohen
They've only known Trump, and they've only known school shootings. They've only known Covid. And so, like, politics only has negative associations for them.
Jessica Tarlov
I totally agree. I mean, it was interesting for me. I'm a total Hillary Clinton, die hard person. So, you know, I know that she doesn't do it for everybody, but there was this moment at the dnc, you know, she spoke on the Monday night. You were there too. It was incredible. I thought it was one of the best speeches that she's delivered. The room's totally electric about it. And I'm talking, like in the hallway with some young girls who are there from all over the country, and they say to me, I didn't know that she was that great. And I was like, it's sad to me that you don't know, but I understand.
Brian Tyler Cohen
People become, in the minds of viewers and Americans, they become the caricatures that people portray them on or that the media portrays them as well.
Jessica Tarlov
Especially because right wing media is so much more powerful than left wing.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Correct.
Jessica Tarlov
And I think we're doing better. I think, you know, chorus is helping a tremendous amount. People going on each other's pods and crisscrossing and trying to have difficult conversations. But we are still so far away from having a comparable pull, I guess. Not just in eyeballs, but in. I don't like power to sway opinion.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Well, you know, you, you probably above anybody else maybe in the United States of America, have the ability to talk to the like. I know that for my audience, my audience is largely liberal and of course, very grateful for my audience, but also grateful for a sliver of people who are independent or who are Republican. And I hear from those people every, every once in a while as well. The majority of your audience doesn't agree with you. And so there's really only upside because it's only the ability to bring more people in. I'm sure most people are closed off, but if you have some segment of people who are not. So can you talk about that a little bit? Like, have you spoken to the Fox audience who's seen you? Have you heard from people who were in you? So talk a little bit about that.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, it's a lot of people who are in conservative households who are kind of more moderate. And also I'm on the moderate side of our party. So my politics don't seem wacky really to anyone. I mean, online, I guess you could find many people are calling me a communist, but no one is really being serious about it. And, you know, they're very thankful that there's a dissenting voice, at least in the conversation, that their family members are not only ingesting but happy to ingest because our families, and you know that I mean, holidays coming up, all the things our families are complicated. Like this is the first year I have a Trump voter in my family, a liberal Trump voter who voted on the issue of Israel and everything else about Trump's platform, not into, but he was like he's going to be better for Israel and he feels vindicated at this point with all the hostages having come back. So I think having this understanding that all of our communication has to be centered around shared humanity. Like if you watch the Five, the entirety of the episode, which most people who, you know, might be consuming your channel have only seen clips of me. You see people who are real colleagues and even friends, people who see each other every day. Right. You're showing up to work with these people, know about their kids and their dogs and all of this. And I think that that's a formula that is so resonant with the country that we have not been able to replicate on the left. I mean, there are panel shows, obviously, but it's still like commentators that are kind of smushed together versus this wacky family vibe. And I think that that's a really big part of it. And something that I try to center in it that like winning an argument is not about a takedown or being able to get, you know, have a viral clip. Like all of that is all well and good, but I want to emphasize, and I did on the panel, that the point is that this is an ongoing discussion. It's not a drop in, drop out situation. And that's how you can actually change people's minds. And I'm sure for the ones who you do, they watch your channel repeatedly and they get to know you and who you are as a person.
Wes Moore
Right.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I think it's important a, to build up that credibility because without that, like, again, like you said, it's not going to happen in just one moment. You're going to land a gotcha and then, and then, you know, change.
Jessica Tarlov
I hate that even when I see it where people will tax like, oh, I'm, you know, I'm going to go on and you know, I'm going to blow things up and do whatever I'm like, you're not going to invite it back also because that's not the system.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah, well, and also when I think about how Democrats at least up to 2024 have used their money, it's like we see ads in like September or October of an election year and like that's it. And you're not gonna convince people, especially in an era where they're consuming media all day long, they're watching podcasts that may be an hour long, but maybe four hours long or five hours long, or they tune into the five and watch you guys every day listen to you and Scott on Raging Moderates. But like, these are long form. This is long form content and people listen to you and they build up their political ideologies and their worldviews from that. And so the notion that you can just drop some ads in October of an election year that last 15 seconds and think that that's gonna have pull or persuasion power in an era where people are consuming so much content constantly and, and have parasocial relationships with these trusted messengers who are doing the work 365 days a year is so backwards, so anachronistic. And I mean, look what happened in 2024. That's the direct result of that. Republicans have embraced independent media to a degree that was previously unheard of. Certainly on the Democratic side. Yeah, but they built up that ecosystem largely because they weren't getting what they needed from legacy media. But they did it. And up to this past election cycle, I know that now it feels like politicians are on all the shows, all the YouTube shows, all the podcasts, they're going on TikToks, and that's great. But prior to this, it was like MSNBC and cnn. And so, of course. Of course you're not gonna like. This is not a strategy built toward persuasion. It's not a strategy built toward reaching people where they actually are.
Jessica Tarlov
Totally. And I'm still. I'm thankful for everybody that wants to, you know, take a leap and do an interview that they might not necessarily. Necessarily have done a couple years ago, but most of the politician interviews are still just that. They're interviews. And I'm sure you notice this, you know, because we talked when I was launching the YouTube channel for raging moderates. You know, what works, what doesn't, Because I'm. I'm not a YouTube creature. Right. I'm a cable creature. And we were talking about what guests resonate and what guests don't and what that's all about. And you see this moment sometimes when you're in interviewing a politician where like, something clicks in them and they're like, oh, shit, I haven't done my stump speech yet.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
And then suddenly it's like, the cost of energy is too high, and it's so frustrating. And I don't want to say it out loud because I don't, you know, I don't want to embarrass anyone, but inside I'm saying we were having a good time. People were actually getting to know you.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right.
Jessica Tarlov
And they're going to vote for you because you're someone that they can hang out with who would, like, come down to the bar. You know, we don't even talk anymore about which politicians would you want to have a beer with. Yeah, right.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah. You know, I had a politician ask me once about, like, how do we. How do we get back? Like, how important is it to stay on message? And, you know, if you look, they had pointed out the fact that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were always. Were always super on message, and look how successful they were. And, like, how do we weave in this new media environment, are basically stump speech into responding to all these questions. And I say, you don't. Like, the credibility comes from being able to show that you're a normal human being. And once you've built that credibility up.
Jessica Tarlov
Then you have that, then they're interested.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Then you're interested, and they trust you, and you're a trusted messenger. And then when you do the stump speech, when it matters, then that's how you can sell it. But you don't get that without some trust that you've built up with audiences, especially when they're sitting with people now who.
Jessica Tarlov
Who.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Who they. Who they do watch every day. And so they. You feel the transactionality of all of this 100%.
Jessica Tarlov
I have two questions for you. One, do you feel like politicians in our party now understand how important like, you are to us being able to do well in the midterms and in 2028? And then the second question is in terms of the content of that stump speech, because I went back, I was looking at old Obama speeches, and there was soaring rhetoric sometimes, you know, but he was saying stuff like, we gotta educate our kids. We gotta save our farms. We gotta make sure that you feel safe in your house of worship. We need to pave the road. You know, he was like a potholes guy. Right. We've gotta keep good immigrants in and get bad immigrants out. You know, it was the deporter in chief.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
And like Donald Trump fantasizes about being able to deport as many people as Barack Obama did. And I feel like that's so missing right now that people are not getting that combination that you gotta sound good, obviously, and inspire, but really, what is the deliverable? Like Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, they're walking deliverables. You just trust them as like, I mean, a CIA agent and a naval pilot. Right. What are they going to do? They're going to help you cut red tape and build more affordable housing. You're going to have a state of emergency on energy. That's what their campaigns were. I don't remember anything that made me get out of my seat and go like, yeah, this is what America is. It was like, I serve you and I heard you. So sorry. That was annoying that there were two together. I don't know.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah. So. So to answer the first one, I'm going to. I'm going to remove myself and just.
Jessica Tarlov
Create creators with huge followings, though.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah. And I think the answer is yes. I mean, I've. I have seen. I have seen everybody everywhere, which is great. And that's what I want and that's what I've been fighting for. And look, even leading up to 2024, I was lucky enough to. To. To be able to have discussions with a lot of these people, but the broader creator ecosystem was not. And I think that that is completely.
Jessica Tarlov
The door is open.
Brian Tyler Cohen
The door is wide open, which is what I've been advocating for. I mean, I wrote a book in 2024 about the importance of embracing independent Media, this is not for me. Again, I have access. I had access to all of those people. This was for them to embrace all the creators, the work I do with chorus to, as an incubator program to build up the creator ecosystem that is so that this ecosystem can spread. I want. I want everybody to go on these shows wherever they are, on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, you know, on all their different verticals, talking to people that are black, white, brown, gay, straight, conservative, moderate, like, whatever it may be. So the answer to that question is yes, and it's a long time coming, but I think that moment is finally here. But to answer your second question, I think that this past election cycle is going to be so instructive for other Democrats moving forward. And we hadn't seen it up until this cycle, like, from Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill to Zoran Mamdani, laser focused on deliverables, laser focused on, like regular people shit. And this was the first election cycle where it didn't feel like it devolved into progressive versus moderate and like a spectrum infighting. Like, and I think that's important. And I've heard a lot of people say, including Barack Obama at the Pod Save America show last night.
Jessica Tarlov
I'm so bummed he wasn't here today.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Barack Obama said, like, this is good. Like we can have. It doesn't matter where you lie on the ideological spectrum, because for wherever you're running, that's gonna be. That's gonna work for those people. It's that the through line between everything that Democrats are selling is that we're focused on regular people, focused on making sure you can afford to do all of the things that you wanna do, that you have some dignity in your life. And that doesn't, by the way, that doesn't need to be. That doesn't need to be differentiated based on where you lie on the ideological spectrum at its core, whether you're a progressive or whether you're a moderate. Like, if you're not just here delivering for people like that, that's what politics is. That's what public service is. And so, and so I think that moving forward now, if you're not doing that, if you are focused on a campaign where it feels like you're talking about like these national culture war issues, it's gonna feel really. It's gonna feel really old, you know, because it's gonna. I mean, I know it's not that old because it's the lead up to 2024, but it's. But everything moves so quickly. And it's gonna feel really, really old as a campaign.
Jessica Tarlov
Absolutely. I mean, I am conscious of the moment when a great candidate. But it was in a close race, you know, one of these people who wins swing districts. And I always love when you see kind of flying around social media, like if you're one of these 10 representatives, you could say whatever you want. Like if you want to go after whoever and that's what you need to do to win your district. Yeah, do it. But, you know, the right is very good at energizing a media narrative. I'm not saying necessarily voters, but a media narrative around one niche event. Like the super random thing that happened. And I don't even want to say though, like, you know, there are 10 trans athletes in the NCAA out of 500,000. Right. So I don't even that statistic. It's real. And I thought that it was really important that the head of the NCAA made that point when they testified in Congress. But like, the trans stuff is a little different than that. But like, you know, you take a. I don't, I shouldn't. I want to reverse. It's not niche because I don't want to diminish like what happened to Link, Lake and Riley, which obviously set off like a huge, you know, not only a bill, but a real kind of come to Jesus moment, I think, for our party about how we have to start treating immigration. But the right is so good at knowing the names of everybody that you want to mention in those conversations. And, you know, we have our people that we would bring to the State of the Union, but we wouldn't bring. They call them angel moms whose kids were killed by undocumented people. Or you have, you know, Joe Biden backtracking when he said illegal alien and then has to go back to saying undocumented and those kinds of things. And they may seem like minor in the moment, but they live forever in the lore and the conservative ecosystem. And that's what.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
I say up at night kind of panicked about. Because it becomes embedded.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
In everything and their perception of us as a party. And I think right now, you know, we're did well in an election, but the brand is still in the toilet and it's going to be very hard to rehab. Maybe we don't even need to.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Well, look, I think the brand problem will solve itself in the sense that we can't just. You don't just fix the brand. Like, you can't just say we're changing the brand.
Jessica Tarlov
Like Cracker Barrel goes back to the other brand.
Brian Tyler Cohen
There's no sign. Like, you don't put a new sign up and you're like, the brand is different now. I hereby proclaim, like, you change the brand by running people who connect with more people like Zoram Hamdani. Changes the brand.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah.
Brian Tyler Cohen
You know, like, there's a cultural element to this where. But you only need those new people. And frankly, a lot of the Democrats who are in office right now, their unwillingness to leave is actually what's doing the brand harm because it's entrenching the same problems that we've had before. And so you can try and tweak around the edges and teach some of the people who, by the way, some of these 70 or 80 year olds who've been there forever how to get more social media stuff. But that's not gonna do it. You fix the brand by getting by. The brand is a reflection of the party, and the party is the people who are in it who are running these campaigns. And so that will happen over time. And I think that as we get this 2026 slate, you know, I'm really excited about it because these are candidates who are younger, they're more dynamic, they have grown up in an era where digital doesn't feel like something that you have to refashion your existing comm strategy into. Like, this is not like, oh, well, we have our mailers that we do and our TV hits that we do. And like, let's figure out something that we can throw into digital. Like, these are digital first. Zhoumamdani is digital first. Newsom's Prop 50 campaign was digital first. And so I think having these candidates who are more comfortable in these spaces, who did not grow up in an era where, you know, you did C span hits and CNN hits, that's going to fix a lot of the problems that plague us right now.
Jessica Tarlov
Yeah, I'm curious or how you're feeling about, you know, there are gonna be some contested primaries. I, you know, always hopeful we win a Texas Senate seat, always disappointed. But, you know, looking at James Talarico and Colin Allred in there, and I think they're both very compelling. I think James Talarico is obviously more compelling on your phone, you know, like whatever ads you're seeing from him or we had him on and I was blown away. And, you know, I love that this new crop also is so faith first that they're comfortable talking about their faith. Because I feel like we've run away, we've ceded so much like patriotism. Nationalism, faith, whatever.
Brian Tyler Cohen
James is especially adept.
Jessica Tarlov
Oh, but you know, the moderate versus Talarico is not like a progressive in, like, the AOC sense, but definitely, you know, to the left. We're all, yeah, yeah, yeah. But he's. I'm curious how those kinds of contests are going to play out, because we're all. We all got the memo. This is a big tent. And I think even the last few weeks have done so much good in accepting that Mom, Donnie does.
Brian Tyler Cohen
The last week has done good. I think prior to that, there was still a ton of infighting, but I think the last week has been effective at saying there's not one ideology that works. Like, if it was only progressive candidates, everybody progressive would say, this is the way moderates are. Like, the way of the past. But because we had moderates win in moderate districts, progressives win progressive districts, then I think that. That hopefully there is a world in which everyone's like, we can. We can do both.
Jessica Tarlov
We can do both. And I think another credit to the party, when they released that ad on the Democrats accounts that had all of the candidates and Mamdani was prominent in there with Gavin Newsom and Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill. I think that's a step in the right direction. But it will be interesting to see what the kind of the left and the right side of the party in these primaries, what that ends up looking like. I mean, there are a lot of people here at Crooked Con who are like, oh, hi, Jessica, I'm. Blah, blah, blah. I'm primarying so and so. Right. Because they're, you know, they're wrong on Israel or, you know, they're not standing up to Trump well enough.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
And there's gonna be some real infighting ugliness coming our way.
Brian Tyler Cohen
There will. I think, overall, like, there's a part of me that's like, you know, obviously, we don't want to relive another Bernie Hillary. I mean, it's never. It's so just like. I think everyone is so, you know, like, injured from that whole era, traumatized from that whole era. But at the end of the day, I think that is less important than just doing democracy, like, having these primaries and getting as many people in as possible. I think it's good. Like, the biggest problem with the Democratic Party Party is it feels like people were anointed. I mean, that was the problem with Kamala. That was the problem with Hillary. That was, you know, it felt for a lot of people, like, there were even instances of that with Joe Biden when Everybody dropped out so that he would, you know, start winning the primaries there. But I think having, yes, it might be some semblance of a redux of like what we've seen in past election cycles that pales in comparison to not to like getting these primaries, doing them and like doing democracy and like finding the candidate who's the strongest to prevail. And I think as long as you do that and you don't engage in a system where it feels like both sides didn't have the ability to make their case, like just do democracy and at least that there won't be an excuse, you know what I mean?
Jessica Tarlov
I totally agree. I guess my worry is a, having a message around it right when you see like if the more lefty candidate is doing well, then the right will write the story of oh, like the Seattle mayor, the guy who won, who was not the DSA guy in the end. But it's like. And we might be on the precipice of like another DSA mayor in Seattle. I'm like, what do you care? You have like right wing lunatics in offices all over the country.
Brian Tyler Cohen
I'm less concerned about, about positioning ourselves in such a way that would preclude the right from being able to attack us. Because the right, because you don't have my job, I don't have job. But also the right attacks everybody anyway.
Jessica Tarlov
Well, that's the thing.
Brian Tyler Cohen
They called Joe Biden a fucking socialist. Joe Biden. So at this point, if you're gonna.
Jessica Tarlov
Get called socialist and by Obama, yeah, it doesn't matter if you're gonna get.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Called a socialist anyway, run these candidates. And by the way, they ran all of those attacks against Zoran Mamdani. And this guy changed politics in New York. He brought out a ton of people in New York who wouldn't have been engaged in the political process. He pulled over a bunch of people that I'm sure sure voted for Trump when he ran on a populist platform in the previous election cycle. So I think that will kind of take care of itself. If somebody wins, they're obviously doing something right. And so I think that's more potent than whatever attacks are gonna come forward and the attacks are gonna be inevitable anyway. And so I think that trying to position yourself in a way to preclude those inevitable attacks is kind of a losing battle.
Jessica Tarlov
I hope that you're right. Just cause I'm also uncomfortable with internal conflict. I'm, you know, I want healthy competition. I think the primary system is really important. But at a certain Point party apparatus gets involved in things and they have to, you know, pick their candidate or, you know, who are we back? And you're seeing it in the Michigan primary for the Senate.
Brian Tyler Cohen
But, but I, you know, I think, I think that has less potency. I think people know no.
Jessica Tarlov
And I think it's honestly a strike against you.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Correct, correct. And so, and so I'd be pissed.
Jessica Tarlov
Frankly, that Chuck Schumer like me.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah. You know, agree. I think too that, you know, in rebutting those attacks and insofar as this is helpful for you do on Fox, like there have been so many election cycles where we've heard Republicans say that this person's a socialist. This person's a socialist. We had eight years of Bill Clinton, not a socialist country. We had eight years of Barack Obama, not a socialist country. We had four years of Joe Biden, not a socialist country. And in fact, not only did we not descend into socialism or Marxism or communism or whatever labels they throw out, but in my entire lifetime, we have never had a Republican administration that's built more jobs than a Democratic administration, that's had a stronger economy than a Democratic administration that's had lower unemployment than a Democratic administration. Never. Like I haven't seen it. And it continues to this day. And so when you actually put the facts in front of these people that despite the fear mongering that's happening, when you actually look at the results, and we have a lot of results since this era, since this Newt Gingrich inspired era of like let's get attack the other side as if they're our full blown enemy and call them socialists and Marxists, since that era has begun, the results speak for themselves. And so at some point you just gotta look at, you know, what the results actually are. And that, and that that tells the story for you totally.
Jessica Tarlov
And we even had it like on a little social cart. You know, you can put on all of your accounts where it's like, you know, the 50 million jobs that have been created again under Democrats and like 1 million under Republicans or whatever, and James Carville's out there talking about it, but it loops back to where we started, which is people's reality is people's reality. And I think a lot of our language, and I don't like being a language police lady about these things, but the fact they're even words in our ecosystem, like around equity and things like that have hurt us so severely and being able to communicate that message where they think like, well, what kind of jobs were they? Right? Were they Just like DEI jobs or crt. I don't even know what a CRT job is. But like. And I think that we still have a ways to go, I guess in the plain talkingness of it. And I don't think also that talking up past accomplishments is the way forward. I do. I think talking about your own record is important. And like Mikey and Abigail, like they were in the top 5% of most bipartisan Congress people. I think that's really important to say, like, you voted for Trump. No, no problem. I collaborate with people who lean right all the time. But our tendency to look to the past.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
And to butcher us. How graver.
Brian Tyler Cohen
And tout metrics. But. And I think you're exactly right. I'm saying that in the sense of like when you know, to rebut.
Jessica Tarlov
It's important.
Brian Tyler Cohen
But, but for these candidates who are running right now, it cannot be, it cannot be past focus. It can't.
Jessica Tarlov
It's like nothing has happened.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Right.
Jessica Tarlov
Like you were just got to be born and you have these ideas. Like you have your experience, but you don't have the political baggage that we've had. And that's what the right does very well.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
If something's inconvenient, didn't happen.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yep, yep.
Jessica Tarlov
And it's divorced from reality sometimes. But it's compelling to people because, you know, they don't, they don't want to look backward. Everyone does want. They have no faith in politics. But if they're going to get it back, it's because it's going to be forward looking.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Last question here. And I'm going to try and channel the question that I know that most people have. Does it ever get too frustrating slash, how do you do it? I would imagine especially as people kind of retreat into their own ecosystems in their friend groups insofar as we can in our families, whatever it may be, you put yourself affirmatively put yourself in scenarios where you are surrounded by people who are ideologically unaligned with you. And so like from a, you know, in your mental state, like how, how does that like feel? Like how. You know what I mean? Like, how do you. I guess the question is like, how do you do it?
Jessica Tarlov
So one thing that I think is really important to it is that I know no other media life. Like I have only ever been at Fox. I'm not someone that was like on rotation around a bunch of places. Like my old boss worked at Fox. He said you should start going on TV to build your media skills because you got to be able to talk for yourself and called a booker at Fox. And then I started a relationship and got hired a couple of years later. So I think that that's part of it. It's also, like I was saying about the consistent relationship, like, they're my colleagues, the same as if you work at any company, right. And I really. Well, I get excited by the idea of trying to figure out the most compelling or the perfect argument for something, and it's this. It's not a game, but we know each other so well that you can kind of think, okay, well, Greg's going to go this way. Jesse's going to swerve this way. Like, what? You know, what have we got to do? And Greg Gotfeld has said in interviews, which is very sweet, he's like, jessica is my muse. Like, I. When we're prepping for the show, I'm thinking, where's Jessica gonna be going with this? And likewise, I'm thinking about it, too. But what makes it even better or more exciting is that I know that the people that I'm talking to are channeling the ideas of the most important people in this country now, politically speaking. And I feel like there's such incredible opportunity that I would be an idiot to think, oh, I should, but I should go and do this. And I get to have my podcast, which is fabulous, and, you know, talk to Scott and have a whole hour where we're mostly in agreement about things, and I can finish all my thoughts. But, you know, we've left so many good opportunities on the proverbial field. And I think that being a strong liberal that can hang in conservative places has been that. Because the caricature has always been, oh, if you show up, you're supposed to just, like, you know, like, bend over and take it, which is not how I do it and not how any of my colleagues would want me to do it. And modeling civic discourse, I mean, sometimes it's messy, obviously, but the fact that we are still kind of united by the fact that we're having similar conversations and that these issues matter to all of us is really animating. And also, I split the chair. So Harold Ford Jr. Does it half of the week, I think five days a week. It's a lot one on four. But, you know, we have, like, three and a half to 4 million people that watch every day. It's like, I mean, you.
Brian Tyler Cohen
It's important because of who those people are, and you have.
Jessica Tarlov
And a lot of them are persuadables.
Brian Tyler Cohen
You have the opportunity to speak to a lot of people that most people in the left of center ecosystem don't even have exposure to. And so I think what you do is important. And look, I know that I speak on behalf of just about everyone watching this right now and listening in, saying thanks for getting out there and being said, not just doing what you do, but being so effective at doing it.
Jessica Tarlov
Well, I so appreciate it and the opportunity to chat. And also, you know, you guys in the independent media and creator space have given a tremendous amount of lift to the work that I'm doing. Like, it wasn't honestly until two, three years ago that I feel like DC would even speak to me like I couldn't. You know, I would be on a normal email talkers list, but like a press secretary or no one would ever have had my phone number to say, like, can I clarify? You know, is there, what are you guys talking about today? Like if you need numbers on this or, you know, I'd love to have an off the record chat. And then it took a few kind of rogue ish people in the Biden administration who were very savvy online that were like, hey, this girl's clips are going viral all the time for our accounts. Maybe we should try talking to her.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov
And I think the Democratic Party is much healthier for having these conversations with all of us, no matter our politics and also no matter where we work. So that's a bright light.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Well, I'm gonna put the link to Raging Moderates right here on the screen and also in the post description of this video. If you're listening on the podcast, it'll be in the show notes. Jessica Tarlov, thanks so much for what you do.
Jessica Tarlov
Thank you for having me and for what you do. I mean, I've been watching you forever.
Brian Tyler Cohen
Thanks again to Governor Wes Moore, Dan Pfeiffer and Jessica Tarlov.
That's it for this episode.
Talk to you next week.
You've been listening to no Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, produced by Sam Graeber, music by Wellesley, and interviews edited for.
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Ryan Tyler Cohen on all of my other channels or you can go to briantylercohen.com to learn more.
No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen – "Trump's shutdown gambit gets fully exposed"
Episode Date: November 9, 2025
This episode dives deep into the recently exposed Republican strategy behind the ongoing government shutdown, specifically how it's being wielded as leverage against health care and food assistance for millions of Americans. Progressive host Brian Tyler Cohen delivers a sharp monologue breaking down the "mask-off" tactics of Trump and the GOP. The episode features in-depth interviews with Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Obama communications director and Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer, and Fox News’ Jessica Tarlov, each bringing perspective on political strategy, redistricting, media, and next steps for Democrats.
[06:13–21:06]
[22:44–35:05]
[36:55–82:57]
On the Republican shutdown game:
On Democratic strategy:
On redistricting and democracy:
On Trump’s messaging failures:
On generational change:
On left-vs-right media ecosystems:
This summary captures the episode’s structure, main themes, and essential insights, serving as a guide for listeners and non-listeners alike.