Not Just the Tudors – “What if Guy Fawkes had succeeded?”

Host: Professor Suzannah Lipscomb
Guests: Jesse Childs, Gareth Russell, Professor Anna Whitelock
Date: November 6, 2025

Overview

This episode centers on an audacious piece of historical speculation: What might have happened if Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators had succeeded in blowing up King James I, the royal family, and the heart of England’s ruling elite during the Gunpowder Plot of 1605? Professor Suzannah Lipscomb convenes historians Jesse Childs, Gareth Russell, and Anna Whitelock to consider the immediate and long-term consequences—for England, Scotland, Ireland, and Europe—had the most notorious terrorist plot in British history not been thwarted.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Plotters’ Objectives and Immediate Fallout

[05:01]

• Original Goal:
  Anna Whitelock (05:13): “Very simply, to blow up what they saw as the Protestant royal establishment and establish a Catholic regime and therefore a Catholic country...that was the goal.”

• Total Annihilation:
  Jesse Childs (05:37): “Before you build, you have to destroy…The King, the Queen, Prince Henry—all would have been at the state opening. Even Prince Charles might have been there... Anyone within a hundred metre radius...might have gone up in the blaze. And all the records of government...”

• Resulting Anarchy:
  Gareth Russell (06:57): “Even the basics of government would have been incredibly difficult, to put it mildly...I think absolute anarchy and chaos throughout the country for months after the plot.”

Shock, Terror, and Likely Backlash

[07:29]

• Unprecedented Terrorism:
  Anna Whitelock (07:29): “This is an act of terrorism, sort of mass murder like never before…literally the seat of power on fire...the entire ruling establishment and...the judiciary, everything.”

• Universal Horror, Not Catholic Solidarity:
  Jesse Childs (08:52): “Many Catholics were appalled by the plot and not just after the event...Francis Tresham...begged Catesby not to go ahead...‘If it happens, Catholics will be lynched... Every Catholic would be attacked…an absolute bloodbath.’”

• Condemnation from Abroad:
  Anna Whitelock (09:35): “The Jesuits were often seen as the kind of shock troopers of Catholicism … And the fact that [Garnet] was...against it, I think says a lot…there’s no reason to think that there wouldn’t have been this widespread condemnation from foreign powers, not least Spain…”

• Catholic Monarchs Prioritizing Order:
  Gareth Russell (10:39): “The idea that Catholic monarchies would have prioritized Catholicism over monarchy is at best a dubious assertion.”

Foreign Policy and Marriage Machinations

[13:58]

• Puppet Princess and European Peace:
  Gareth Russell (14:36): “Peace, definitely. But...lingering revulsion. The big problem...would have been finding a husband for Elizabeth...there are not a lot of options...the Spanish only have a baby prince at this stage…The one candidate I could find was the fourth son of the Duke of Savoy…”

• Scandinavian and Germanic Influence:
  Anna Whitelock (16:25): “One of the often overlooked powers...is Denmark, Norway...Frederick was the brother-in-law of James and a really significant bloc…wonder whether Denmark, Norway...would have actually taken a more assertive position against any potential Catholic marriage…”

The Role and Fate of the Royal Children

[17:47]

• Elizabeth or Charles as Puppet Monarchs?:
  Jesse Childs (17:47): “[Elizabeth] was a tough cookie...when she would have been made the puppet queen, she apparently protested that she would rather be blown up in Parliament House with her father than go along with this plan...”

  Anna Whitelock (19:31): “Charles was a really sickly ill child...only just five. His life and his sort of sustainability and his health were really precarious at this point…”

• Manipulating or Rescuing Royalty:
  Gareth Russell (18:34): “They would have gone for Charles...he’s younger, and they will be able to mould him into a Catholic…The Danish royal family...are very loyal to their kin. If Queen Anna ended up among the casualty figures, you would have seen Denmark, Norway taking a very assertive line against this new Catholic government...”

• Scotland and a Possible Proxy War:
  Jesse Childs (21:44): “The other key player is Thomas Percy…He probably would have been the Protector…If somehow the Protestants could get Charles across the border to Scotland, then...there could well have been a very serious war there.”

The Popular Mood: Not So Catholic After All

[22:53]

• Numbers and Conformity:
  Jesse Childs (23:10): “Hardline Catholics...called recusants...In 1603...around 8,500 recusants...John Bossy...suggested there were probably around 40,000 Catholics...But I think...we’re talking about five figures, not six.”

• Reluctance for Catholic Uprising:
  Anna Whitelock (24:53): “We can’t underestimate the atrocity here of...the entire ruling establishment...And…I’m not sure necessarily that people would really want to throw their lot in with [the plotters]. They were incredibly naive.”

• Slotting Into Old Stereotypes:
  Gareth Russell (26:46): “When you look at populist anti-Catholicism, it’s the one thing that unites most of southern England...It’s never too far from an anti-Catholic riot in 17th-century London...If something on this scale happens...I do think you would have seen mass violence on the streets.”

Civil War, Religious Division, and End of the Union

[31:52]

• Civil War Likely, No Parliamentary Union:
  Gareth Russell (32:42): “I think you would have seen civil war tear through England for years...Ireland might have been quite pleased...would have left their Catholic elite intact...Scotland...would have been rightly incandescent because this is their royal family...not just civil war, but throughout James’ former three kingdoms.”

  Podcast Host (33:32): “Might well have had a separate monarch proclaimed in Scotland…”

  Anna Whitelock (33:36): “So I think that's very probable…consolidation of religion in each country…”

• London’s Response & Merchant Influence:
  Jesse Childs (35:31): “…very wealthy, they’re literate, they’re litigious...they would rally, restore order, restore trade...if there is some sort of Catholic regime...there would have been a civil war sooner…”

Cultural Impact: Literature, Architecture, and Society

[38:08]

• No King James Bible, Shakespeare, or Bacon?:
  Gareth Russell (38:35): “You would have seen the preemptive euthanizing of that Jacobean cultural flowering...it would have killed the King James Bible project immediately…”

  Anna Whitelock (39:06): “Figures like Francis Bacon...would have been part of that ruling establishment that was killed...The sort of export of Englishness and English language abroad...would have been affected.”

  Jesse Childs (39:16): “Macbeth is a Gunpowder Plot play...would be very different. John Milton as well, obsessed with the Gunpowder Plot.”

• Architectural Consequences & Economic Growth:
  Podcast Host (42:04): “All the people who built [Jacobean prodigy houses] would have died, so there wouldn't have been so many gorgeous houses...”

  Anna Whitelock (36:35): “England, Scotland, fledgling Britain was beginning to look outwards...the merchants...would have pushed forward...establishing permanent colonies in the New World...there would have perhaps been a distraction from that.”

The Legacy of Martyrdom and National Identity

[47:29]

• The King as Martyr:
  Anna Whitelock (47:29): “James would have been this absolute martyr figure...the fact that him and his wife and the whole ruling establishment had been blown up...what the legacy of that would have been...”

  Jesse Childs (48:13): “If you look after the regicide of Charles I...how quickly order was restored...and how quickly the foreign kings and rulers acknowledge Cromwell...That’s quite telling.”

Long-Term Consequences for Britain & the World

[51:58], [52:21]

• No “Glorious Revolution”? Different American Colonies?:
  Podcast Host (51:46): “Perhaps it wouldn’t have been called Jamestown. That’s all we’ve got.” Jesse Childs (51:58): “Yes. More Merrylands, I think...If...there was an authoritarian Catholic regime for centuries, then...no monarchy today.”

• Foreign Perspectives—England as Side Show:
  Jesse Childs (50:01): “It’s an island nation. It’s not that important yet. It’s devil land, as Claire Jackson titled her book about it...instable, like the element that surrounded it...if it had been mainland Europe...it can happen...whereas England, who cares?”

  Gareth Russell (50:44): “From the Spanish perspective, quite useful that England isn't going to be as active in the Americas or abroad…”

On the Validity and Usefulness of “What If?” History

[53:57 - 58:27]

• Value of Counterfactual History:
  Gareth Russell (54:14): “It's a bit like a historical crossroad…trying to figure out the answer…Just how vast the impact would have been...all the men who crossed the T’s and dot the I’s in Jacobean government are gone.”

  Anna Whitelock (56:50): “It's like eating your vegetables. It's one of the things that's good for you, counterfactuals...it reminds us that so much of history is about contingency and the kind of what ifs and so on...being aware of the assumptions and...element of it just happened, but it could have gone the other way is important.”

  Gareth Russell (58:24): “History happens backwards; life happens forwards.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the consequences of success:
  Jesse Childs (08:52): “Catholics will be lynched. There will be something like the massacre of St. Bartholomew’s Day...Every Catholic would be attacked in his bed, he would be dragged out and it would be an absolute bloodbath.”

• On foreign indifference:
  Gareth Russell (50:44): “With one hand [Maria Theresa] was dabbing her tears and on the other she was signing the treaty to take a bit of Poland. So I think that's probably what would have happened with the Spanish and the English colonies overseas.”

• On counterfactuals:
  Anna Whitelock (56:50): “It's like eating your vegetables. It's one of the things that's good for you, counterfactuals, but not necessarily the first thing you'd choose.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Setting the Scene—The Gunpowder Plot: [02:00–05:00]
• Plotters’ Goals/Anarchy: [05:01–06:57]
• Historic Horror, Backlash: [07:29–10:39]
• Europe’s Response/Marriage Politics: [13:58–17:47]
• Royal Succession and Scottish/Ireland Impact: [17:47–22:53]
• Religion, Social Support, Populist Mood: [22:53–29:06]
• Civil War, National Division: [31:52–36:35]
• Cultural and Economic Fallout: [38:08–43:12]
• King as Martyr, Foreign Realpolitik: [47:29–51:58]
• Counterfactuals in Historical Thinking: [53:57–58:27]

Conclusion

The consensus: a successful Gunpowder Plot would have produced initial chaos, violent anti-Catholic reprisals, possibly civil wars spanning all three kingdoms, and a breakdown of established authority, with only a tiny chance of sustainable Catholic rule amidst backlash from at home and abroad. Far from ushering in a stable Catholic England, the plot would have paved the way for bloodshed, likely forever altering the shape of British government, society, culture, and colonial ambition.

Final Word:
Gareth Russell (58:24): “History happens backwards, life happens forwards.”