Podcast Summary: O Assunto – “2025 e o show de Donald Trump”

Host: Natuza Nery (G1)
Guest: Oliver Stuenkel (FGV, Harvard, Carnegie Endowment)
Date: December 23, 2025

Overview

This episode explores the tumultuous first year of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in 2025, dubbing it “O Show de Trump” (“The Trump Show”), with a focus on his headline-grabbing style, disruptive policies, and global impact. International relations analyst Oliver Stuenkel joins Natuza Nery to provide insight and context on Trump’s domestic and foreign policy moves, their impact on Brazil and the world, and the larger implications for democracy and U.S. global leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Media-Centric Governance Style

• Opening framing: Trump’s presidency described as a “daily show” of power, confrontation, and urgency, full of calculated spectacle and unpredictable moves.
• Trump leverages the global stage as his media arena; international crises are used as opportunities to reinforce his personal brand and authority.
  • Oliver Stuenkel (06:26): “O Trump é um showman da geopolítica... crises internacionais viram oportunidades de afirmação pessoal.”
• Tendencies to use executive power (“canetadas”) to bypass Congress and redraw limits of presidential authority.

2. Controversial Domestic Actions

• Education & Immigration:
  • Trump freezes $2 billion in funds to Harvard, after the university criticizes his policies (00:53–01:14).
  • Threatens to invoke the Insurrection Act against major cities, deploying the National Guard to multiple urban centers (01:15–01:42).
  • Ramps up detentions and deportations, targeting a goal of one million deportations per year.
    • Notable description (02:50): “As prisões, em média, depois da posse de Trump, são mais do que o dobro do que foram no segundo semestre do ano passado.”
  • Infamous quote about Somali immigrants:
    • Trump (Reported, 02:20): “Não quero imigrantes da Somália porque o país deles fede.”
• Use of public calls for investigations into political adversaries, intensifying polarization and drawing comparisons to past crises like Watergate (03:34).

3. Foreign Policy as Political Theater

• Trump announces the “Day of Liberation,” unveiling sweeping tariffs on almost 200 countries — an economic “independence declaration” (01:55–02:20).
• Pressure on adversaries aligns with his showmanship and preference for high-impact, visually dramatic announcements (01:42).
• Simultaneous conflicting messages: claims to end wars while escalating military action.
  • Example: Precision U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities (04:32).
  • Ongoing “tensions” with Venezuela escalate, with accusations and direct actions against the Maduro regime (04:58, 16:28, 17:43).

4. Brazil–U.S. Relations: From Crisis to Pragmatism

• Relationship experienced a “rollercoaster” — from record-high tariffs imposed by Trump to an eventual normalization and personal rapport between Trump and President Lula.
  • Highlight (09:50):
    • Trump: “Nós tivemos uma ótima química e isso é um bom sinal.”
• Trump initially used tariffs and threats as leverage, but diplomatic and business pressure from both nations reversed much of the trade hostility (10:04–14:21).
• Brazil’s pragmatic approach is now cited as a case study in how to deal with Trump’s unpredictability.
  • Stuenkel (14:46): “O Brasil respondeu de forma pragmática... é um caso estudado hoje por chancelerias em outros países sobre como lidar com o Trump.”
• Brazil’s diversified trade partnerships (notably with China) gave it maneuvering room against U.S. pressure (15:00–16:01).

5. Venezuela as a “Test Case” for U.S. Hegemony

• Trump sees the region through the lens of spheres of influence, pushing for U.S. supremacy in Latin America (16:28).
• Approves military operations, sanctions, and public branding of Maduro as a “narcoterrorist” to justify pressure (17:43).
• Risks of regime change without clear planning:
  • Stuenkel (19:32): “Derrubar Maduro pode também desestabilizar o país ainda mais... os EUA podem acabar tendo que lidar com uma crise muito mais profunda.”

6. Pursuit of the “Nobel President” Image

• Trump aspires to win the Nobel Peace Prize, partly out of rivalry with Obama (21:03–21:32).
  • Stuenkel: “Trump é muito movido pela vaidade pessoal e também o ressentimento. Ele... se sente que também quer receber esse prêmio.”
• Tries to cast himself as a peacemaker (referencing Gaza, Ukraine–Russia), despite ongoing global tensions.

7. The China–U.S. Tariff War

• Trump’s escalation of tariffs against China backfired; increased living costs in the U.S., damaged global confidence, and forced financial aid to suffering sectors (23:09–23:52).
• These policies have reduced trust in the U.S. as a commercial partner, with other countries strengthening ties elsewhere.
  • Stuenkel (24:04): “A guerra comercial também mostrou os limites da influência americana, sobretudo em relação à China... globalização continua, mas o papel dos Estados Unidos hoje é menor do que era no início do ano.”

8. Whispers of a Third Term & Constitutional Strain

• Discussion of Trump’s hints at a third term, constitutional impossibility, and his social media provocations (25:21–26:34).
  • Trump claims mechanisms exist for circumventing the ban, sowing anxiety among opponents.
• Stuenkel warns of democratic strains, noting Trump’s efforts to weaken independent power structures and the resulting backlash within and outside the Republican Party.
  • Stuenkel (26:34): “Claramente estamos vendo uma ilusão parcial da democracia americana... tentativa de Trump de concentrar o poder, de pressionar o judiciário, o Congresso, a sociedade civil...”
  • Foresees congressional pushback after likely Republican losses in upcoming midterms.
• Trump’s approval drops to 53.8% disapproval (27:55), signaling significant public resistance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Trump é um showman da geopolítica...”
  Oliver Stuenkel (06:26): Describing Trump’s performative approach to international relations.
• “Ele joga uma ideia... ele repete...”
  Host (03:34): On how Trump “normalizes” the unthinkable by persistent repetition.
• “As prisões... depois da posse de Trump, são mais do que o dobro...”
  Host (02:50): Highlighting the surge in immigrant detentions.
• “Nós tivemos uma ótima química e isso é um bom sinal.”
  Trump (quoted by host, 09:50): Speaking about the rapport with President Lula.
• “Trump é muito movido pela vaidade pessoal e também o ressentimento...”
  Oliver Stuenkel (21:32): On Trump’s drive for the Nobel.
• “Claramente estamos vendo uma ilusão parcial da democracia americana...”
  Stuenkel (26:34): On institutional stresses during Trump’s term.

Major Segment Timestamps

• 00:21–04:58: Trump’s theatrical presidency; focus on live announcements, immigration crackdowns, and military moves.
• 06:26–08:49: Trump’s strategy on the global stage; contradictions and decision-making within his administration.
• 09:50–16:01: The Brazil–US diplomatic rollercoaster—tariffs, normalization, and lessons in pragmatic response.
• 16:01–20:31: Trump’s aggressive posture toward Venezuela; risks and rationales.
• 21:03–23:09: Trump’s Nobel ambitions and “pacifist president” image.
• 23:09–25:21: China–U.S. trade war outcomes and shifting global alliances.
• 25:21–28:28: Third-term debates; democratic erosion and Trump’s plummeting popularity.

Conclusion

Trump’s presidency in 2025 is captured as an exercise in spectacle, disruption, and norm-shattering conduct both domestically and internationally. The episode emphasizes the global and regional implications, from Latin America to the world’s trade systems, and portrays Trump as both an agent of chaos and a shrewd manipulator of public attention. The conversation, rich with analysis and sharp observations, ultimately warns of the enduring consequences for democracy and U.S. global positioning.