Podcast Summary: O Assunto – “A cassação de Eduardo Bolsonaro e do deputado foragido”

Host: Natuza Nery (G1)
Guest: Thomas Traumann (comentarista GloboNews) + outros jornalistas/analistas
Date: December 19, 2025

Overview

This episode delves into the recent cassation (removal from office) of two prominent deputies: Eduardo Bolsonaro (son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro) and Alexandre Ramagem (former PF delegate and ABIN director), both linked to the Bolsonarista movement. Natuza Nery explores the different circumstances leading to their losses of mandate and examines the ramifications for Brazilian politics, the Bolsonaro family strategy, and the congressional handling of accountability. The discussion also touches on the broader context, including political calculations, reactions from different sectors, and what lies ahead for the affected individuals.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Circumstances Behind the Cassations

[00:11–01:28]

• Alexandre Ramagem: Cassation executed after a 16-year prison sentence for his role in a “trama golpista” (coup plot). Currently a fugitive in the US.
• Eduardo Bolsonaro: Lost mandate due to excessive absences—63 out of 78 sessions absent. Per constitution, missing more than a third of sessions is grounds for cassation.

“Contra Eduardo Bolsonaro pesou o acúmulo de faltas... A Constituição proíbe parlamentares de faltar a mais de um terço das sessões.” – Reporter [00:17]

[02:33–04:22]

• Contrast with Carla Zambelli’s Case: Congress recently failed to expel Zambelli, triggering cautious handling of Ramagem’s case (to comply with Supreme Court determination directly via the Chamber's mesa diretora) and avoid more embarrassment/conflict with the STF.

2. Institutional Dynamics and Avoidance of Political Confrontation

[04:22–06:23]

• Both expulsions were deliberately handled as bureaucratic decisions by the Chamber's board, not brought to the floor, avoiding direct confrontation or potential defeats that would damage congressional reputation further and pit the legislature against the STF.
• Eduardo Bolsonaro’s lobbying against the country was cited: self-exiled in the US, pressuring for amnesty for his father and threatening sanctions.

“É uma clara chantagem, é uma clara ameaça.” – Thomas Traumann [05:58]

[06:23–08:13]

• Thomas Traumann and other analysts criticize the Chamber's “corporativism” and reluctance to hold members accountable, prioritizing internal protection over the public good.

“Mesmo um caso tão absurdo quanto esse do Eduardo Bolsonaro, a Câmara prefere não colocar pra votação.” – Political Commentator [08:13]

3. Legal and Political Future for Eduardo Bolsonaro

[08:55–12:28]

• Legal status: Eduardo, having lost his seat for absences, retains political rights (would lose them if removed by plenary vote). He faces an imminent Supreme Court case for coaction against the judiciary, with clear evidence from his own live streams and posts.
• Outlook: Highly likely to be convicted and barred from candidacy before the 2026 elections. His continued stay in the US may depend on US political dynamics and possible future extradition.

“As provas são um pouco evidentes, ele mesmo deu todas as provas em suas várias lives.” – Political Commentator [10:21]

• Political calculation: Bolsonaro family (and associates like Ramagem) are betting on a favorable 2026 outcome (Flávio Bolsonaro presidential run), hoping for self-amnesty or pardon.

4. Passports, Exile, and Strategic Waiting

[13:10–14:11]

• Exit modalities: Ramagem left using a diplomatic passport; Eduardo likely did as well, but now, without a mandate, he loses this entitlement.
• Both remain in the US, relying on the goodwill of a Trump administration and banking on family political revival in 2026.

“Toda aposta do bolsonarismo está... na hipótese de um Bolsonaro ser eleito em 2026... aí tem uma amnistia geral.” – Political Commentator [14:11]

5. The Cassation’s Impact on the Bolsonaro Family and Next Steps

[15:00–18:09]

• The 2026 elections are described as “existential” for the family: preserving leadership, seeking immunity, and controlling the opposition narrative.
• Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy is a “bet” on retaining the family’s political prominence.
• Access to Jair Bolsonaro is strictly limited to family/advocates, insulating decisions from party influence.

“Logo, a disputa de 2026... algo existencial pra família, né?” – Natuza Nery [15:00]
“Eles não costumam acreditar muito e não confiar [em pessoas fora do núcleo familiar].” – Political Commentator [17:02]

6. Alexandre Ramagem’s Role and Ties to Bolsonaro

[18:09–20:45]

• Ramagem is not just an ally but integral to the Bolsonaro circle; as ABIN chief, provided intelligence that allegedly protected the family during investigations.
• His conviction was severe because of his central role in the “núcleo golpista” (coup core).

7. Costs of Exiled Deputies

[20:45–21:39]

• Even while absent/fugitive, these deputies continued to cost the public. In October, their combined parliamentary expenses totaled over R$ 419,000.

“Esses custos totais chegam ali a R$ 419.270.” – Reporter [21:39]

8. Social Media and Political Fallout

[21:39–23:41]

• Left-wing networks celebrated the cassations but were still frustrated by the Senate’s “anistia envergonhada” (“shamefaced” amnesty, i.e., dosimetry) for January 8 convicts.
• Bolsonarista networks see it as persecution, reinforcing their narrative.
• Chamber president Hugo Mota caught between both sides; criticized by left for the amnesty, now by the right for removals.

“Hugo Mota, que estava, na semana passada, apanhando da esquerda, essa semana está apanhando da direita.” – Political Commentator [23:12]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Thomas Traumann, on Eduardo’s lobbying:
  “É uma clara chantagem, é uma clara ameaça.” [05:58]

• Natuza on existential stakes:
  “Logo, a disputa de 2026, a gente pode interpretá-la como algo existencial pra família, né?” [15:00]

• Traumann on Bolsonarista calculus:
  “...toda aposta do bolsonarismo está... na hipótese de um Bolsonaro ser eleito em 2026... aí tem uma amnistia geral.” [14:11]

• Reporter, on the cost to the public:
  “Esses custos totais chegam ali a R$ 419.270.” [21:39]

• Political Commentator, on chamber corporatism:
  “No crecheio dos ovos, eles se protegem. E isso é só mais uma demonstração de como os políticos brasileiros estão numa realidade completamente alternativa em relação à realidade da maioria dos brasileiros.” [09:45]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:11–01:28]: Introduction of cassations, differences for each deputy
• [02:33–04:22]: Lessons from Zambelli’s case; why Ramagem’s was handled differently
• [04:22–06:23]: Bureaucratic avoidance of plenary votes; Eduardo’s international lobbying
• [08:55–10:53]: Eduardo’s legal outlook, evidence, and future prospects
• [13:10–14:11]: Diplomatic passports & US exile strategy
• [15:00–17:02]: 2026 elections as existential struggle; Flávio’s role
• [18:09–20:45]: Ramagem’s background, ties to Bolsonaro, and conviction details
• [20:45–21:39]: Expenses incurred by the fugitive/absent deputies
• [21:39–23:41]: Reactions on social networks; political impacts for Hugo Mota

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive yet accessible breakdown of the cassations of Eduardo Bolsonaro and Alexandre Ramagem, situating these events in the context of congressional maneuvering, judicial actions, Bolsonarista strategy, and upcoming electoral stakes. The discussion balances political analysis, procedural detail, and broader societal implications—making it essential listening and now, an essential summary for those following Brazilian politics.