Podcast Summary: O Assunto — "A vitória da direita no Chile"

Date: 16/12/2025
Host: Natuza Nery
Guest: Demetrio Maioli (Sociólogo, Doutor em Geografia Humana pela USP, comentarista da GloboNews)

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Natuza Nery discusses the landslide victory of José Antonio Kast, a right-wing candidate, in the Chilean presidential election. The conversation with sociologist and political analyst Demetrio Maioli explores the factors behind this shift, the fragmentation and realignment of political forces in South America, and the broader regional trend of the right attaining executive office across Latin America. The discussion provides context, comparative insights, and predictions relevant to ongoing political transformations in the region.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Chilean Election: The Rise of José Antonio Kast

• Election night & Immediate Reactions:

  • José Antonio Kast won decisively, with 58% of the votes, the second largest margin since the return to democracy.
  • Rival Jeanette Jara recognized defeat quickly, reflecting political maturity.

    “Pouco antes das sete e meia da noite, a candidata adversária, Jeanette Jara, ligou a Caste, reconhecendo a vitória do adversário.” (00:30)

• Kast’s Campaign & Shift in Rhetoric:

  • Initially a representative of the far-right, Kast moderated his discourse during the campaign, particularly compared to his earlier runs.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    "Ele parou de elogiar Pinochet... Agora ele fez um giro mais pronunciado, que eu insisto, é um giro mais retórico que de substância, na direção do centro." (04:15)

• Security & Immigration as Central Issues:

  • The campaign was dominated by concerns about public security and immigration, themes that resonated due to rising crime rates and a large influx of migrants, mostly Venezuelans.

2. Collapse of the Political Center in Chile

• Erosion of Centrism & Polarization:

  • Until 2019-2020, Chile’s politics were dominated by the center-left and center-right. The huge protests and subsequent political upheaval broke that paradigm.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    “O centro político foi praticamente destruído no país.” (05:59)

• Opportunities for Extremes:

  • Space opened for both left and right “extremes” (used in a geometric, not pejorative sense—neither displayed anti-democratic leanings).
  • Key Quote:

    "Eu estou falando apenas geometricamente... não é possível dizer que no Chile existam... correntes extremistas, antidemocráticas." (08:58)

3. Elections Driven by Rejection, Not Enthusiasm

• Electoral Dynamics in Latin America:
  • Recent cycles showcase a pattern of “rejection elections,” with results defined by voters’ aversion to one option more than attraction to the other.
  • The failure of Gabriel Boric’s government and the rejection of a left-leaning new Constitution marked the decline of the left and Boric’s unpopularity.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    “São eleições da rejeição, principalmente... é a rejeição à política que foi conduzida durante o governo Boric." (11:52)

4. Broader Regional Pattern: The Right Ascendant in Latin America

• Recent Shifts Beyond Chile:

  • Chile, Argentina (with Milley), Bolivia (with Rodrigo Paz), and various Central American countries have moved rightward.
  • Common threads: security concerns and, to a lesser degree, immigration.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    "Há de fato uma onda da direita, não só na América do Sul, como também na América Central. E aí, com a solitária exceção da Argentina... em todos os outros lugares o tema unificador é a segurança pública." (15:17)

• List of Countries by Governing Alignment:

  • Right: Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay
  • Left: Brazil, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela (albeit “com diferentes gradações aqui à esquerda, porque Maduro é um ditador” – Natuza Nery (16:54))

5. Right vs. Left: Unity and Fragmentation

• The Right:

  • Unifying discourse around security, order, and to some extent, immigration.
  • Common reference: Donald Trump.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    “À direita... eles compartilham um ponto de referência, Donald Trump.” (17:36)

• The Left:

  • Fragmented, lacking a shared platform or regional reference figure.
  • The “pluralidade de esquerdas” contrasts with a more coherent right.
  • Memorable Exchange:

    Natuza: “Curioso isso que você nos conta, porque a direita superarticulada e a esquerda... Fragmentada.”
    Demetrio: “Exatamente. Superfragmentada.” (19:01)

6. Influence of the United States: Trump and the Monroe Doctrine

• Trump as a Beacon for the Latin American Right:

  • Not directly enabling victories but serving as an ideological anchor, especially on security and immigration.
  • Anticipation of commercial and strategic alignment with a Trump administration.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    “Donald Trump aparece como o farol para todos esses candidatos e agora governantes de direita.” (19:37)

• Resurgence of Monroe Doctrine:

  • Under Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the US pays close attention to Latin America, aiming to counter China and undermine leftist regimes like Maduro’s Venezuela.
  • Expect reinforcement of US influence via trade deals and political pressure.
  • Key Quote:

    “A política tarifária de Trump é fortemente influenciada pelas suas inclinações ideológicas... tem olhos voltados para a América Latina.” (20:30)

7. Prognosis for Brazil 2026

• Could the Right’s Success Reach Brazil?
  • Demetrio highlights Brazil’s distinct context:
    • No major immigration issue.
    • Security remains a major concern.
    • The far right is damaged after Bolsonaro’s failed coup and judicial processes.
    • Left’s deep roots (especially “lulismo”).
  • Outcome uncertain, but the “security” discourse will be central.
  • Demetrio Maioli:

    “Nós temos um problema seríssimo de segurança pública... esse vai ser um discurso da direita nas eleições do ano que vem. Agora... as raízes populares profundas do lulismo fazem com que a esquerda não seja sempre uma candidata à vitória no segundo turno das eleições. No Brasil, a esquerda é favorita. Ou seja... a esquerda volte a vencer em 2026. Mas isso não é certo... o discurso da segurança pública terá um peso, como já tem um peso muito grande também no Brasil.” (23:31)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Kast’s transformation:
  "Ele parou de elogiar Pinochet... Agora ele fez um giro mais pronunciado, que eu insisto, é um giro mais retórico que de substância, na direção do centro." (Demetrio Maioli, 04:15)

• On fragmentation vs. unity:
  "À direita... eles compartilham um ponto de referência, Donald Trump." (Demetrio Maioli, 17:36)
  Natuza: “Curioso isso que você nos conta, porque a direita superarticulada e a esquerda... Fragmentada.”
  Demetrio: “Exatamente. Superfragmentada.” (19:01)

• On the persistence of US influence:
  "A política tarifária de Trump é fortemente influenciada pelas suas inclinações ideológicas... tem olhos voltados para a América Latina." (Demetrio Maioli, 20:30)

• On Latin America’s election mood:
  "São eleições da rejeição, principalmente..." (Demetrio Maioli, 11:52)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:24] — Natuza introduces Kast's victory night
• [03:29] — Demetrio discusses the pivotal role of candidate selection and rhetoric
• [05:59] — Analysis of the collapse of Chile's political center
• [11:52] — Discussion of “elections of rejection” dynamic
• [13:50] — The regional context: similar recent results in other Latin American countries
• [15:17] — Main drivers of the right’s success: security and, in Chile, immigration
• [17:36] — The difference between a unified right and a fragmented left
• [19:37] — The Trump factor and external (US) influence
• [23:31] — Will the right’s regional wave reach Brazil?

Conclusion

This episode provides a nuanced look at the decisive rightward shift in Chile and its place in the Latin American context. The analysis illuminates both national and regional trends—security and immigration as drivers, the collapse of the political center, and the increasing importance of US policies under Trump. The conversation suggests Brazil’s own political future may be influenced by these factors, while also shaped by its unique recent history.

Overall Tone:
Conversational, analytically rigorous, and accessible—balancing concrete data, regional comparison, and political theory, with a focus on what these shifts mean for listeners in Brazil and the broader Latin American context.