Podcast Summary: O Assunto – Venezuela: Trump e Maduro no Fio da Navalha

Host: Vitor Boiagian (G1)
Guest: Prof. Maurício Santoro (IUPERJ; Centro de Estudos Políticos Estratégicos da Marinha do Brasil)
Date: December 3, 2025

Overview

In this episode, O Assunto examines mounting tension between the United States and Venezuela amidst a renewed U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, unprecedented pressure on the regime of Nicolás Maduro, and allegations of “narcoterrorism.” Host Vitor Boiagian discusses the diplomatic, military, and regional consequences with political scientist Maurício Santoro—framing current developments as a pivotal moment that could reshape Latin American geopolitics, affect Brazil directly, and test norms of international law.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Escalating U.S. Pressure and Military Posturing

• Reward and Troop Build-up ([00:13]–[01:15])
  • The Trump administration doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture to $50 million, alleging the Venezuelan regime protects the “Cartel de los Soles.”
  • Major U.S. naval and air assets, including a nuclear submarine and the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier, are deployed near Venezuela, involving 10–15% of the U.S. Navy’s resources.
• Bombing Campaigns
  • U.S. military bombed over 20 vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific since September, claiming to target narcoterrorists. These attacks resulted in 83 deaths—without concrete proof published.
  • Quote: “O governo americano alega, sem mostrar provas, que eram narcoterroristas transportando drogas para os Estados Unidos.” (Natuzaneri, [01:15])

2. Ultimatums and Failed Negotiations

• Trump’s Ultimatum ([01:34]–[02:13])
  • Trump delivers a direct ultimatum: Maduro must relinquish power to restore constitutional order, threatening military escalation if he does not comply.
  • Quote: “O presidente americano deu um ultimato a Nicolás Maduro [...] exigiu que o ditador deixasse a Venezuela imediatamente para permitir a restauração da ordem democrática.” (Natuzaneri, [01:39])
• Maduro’s Proposals Dismissed
  • Offers such as a transitional government and amnesty (for himself and allies) are rejected by Trump, exposing lack of trust from previous failed promises and electoral irregularities.
  • UN experts report Venezuela’s recent elections were marked by “unprecedented irregularities."

3. Strategic and Political Dilemmas

• Trump’s Predicament ([03:24]–[04:42])
  • Santoro analyzes how Trump risks appearing weak if he backs down, as the regime would cast continued survival as a victory over the U.S.
  • Quote: “Se ele recuar agora... vai ser utilizado pelo regime chavista... como um discurso de vitória [...] realmente não resta muita opção para os Estados Unidos a não ser atacar a Venezuela.” (Maurício Santoro, [04:22])
• Maduro’s Survival and the Chavista State
  • The regime’s longstanding capture of state structures, especially the military, makes any clean negotiated transition “inviable.”
  • Santoro notes “muita gente com muito a perder” if Maduro exits ([06:14]).

4. Legality and Morality of U.S. Operations

• Allegations of War Crimes ([07:30]–[10:01])
  • High-profile incident: U.S. forces bomb a vessel, then attack survivors in the water—potential violation of the Geneva Conventions.
  • The Secretary of Defense, Pete Headseth, is criticized and even mocks the incident, prompting congressional investigations and rebukes from military officials.
  • Quote: “Isso é um crime de guerra, isso é assassinato puro e simples.” (Maurício Santoro, [10:01])
• Dissent within U.S. Institutions
  • Some congressmen, even from Trump’s own party, denounce the attacks as war crimes.
  • Santoro highlights deep unease among U.S. military leadership over bypassing international law.

5. Military Feasibility of an Invasion

• Capabilities and Limits ([11:03]–[13:57])
  • U.S. military presence is massive but not sufficient for a full land invasion without further mobilization (Venezuela’s size compared to Panama cited).
  • Likely U.S. actions: surgical strikes, blockades, special forces raids, and targeted amphibious assaults, especially on strategic islands like Isla Margarita.

6. Political Calculations and Domestic Opinion

• U.S. Political Dynamics ([13:57]–[15:38])
  • Trump’s anti-interventionist campaign rhetoric contrasts with current military actions.
  • U.S. public is wary of war, and U.S. Latinos, including Venezuelan/Cuban exiles, are more supportive of intervention than the general population.
  • Marco Rubio’s political ascent reflects influence of exile communities; these play into foreign policy calculations.
  • Quote: “Os latino-americanos estão mais simpáticos a uma intervenção militar dos Estados Unidos na Venezuela do que a própria população dos Estados Unidos.” (Maurício Santoro, [15:38])

7. Regional Implications—Focus on Brazil

• Brazil-Venezuela Border Concerns ([17:00]–[19:02])
  • Brazil’s long border with Venezuela is a flashpoint for refugee flows, crime, and indigenous vulnerability.
  • Potential conflict would jeopardize Brazilian national security and further harm cross-border trade—once highly lucrative.
• Brazilian Diplomacy and Security Cooperation ([19:02]–[21:52])
  • Lula’s government seeks U.S. partnership on organized crime while diplomatically treading delicately on Venezuela, prioritizing trade negotiations and domestic security.
  • Quote: “O governo brasileiro tem sido tão cauteloso, tão cuidadoso e tem procurado ressaltar junto às autoridades americanas aquilo que tem sido feito nessa questão do combate ao crime organizado.” (Maurício Santoro, [20:57])
  • Brazil, like others in the region, avoids strong opposition to the U.S. operation due to these intersecting interests.

8. Doctrine and the “War on Drugs”

• Militarization and Justification for Intervention ([22:31]–[25:43])
  • Trump’s new “Doctrine Donald” mirrors the Monroe Doctrine, using anti-drug rhetoric to justify military involvement.
  • Designating Venezuelan and other Latin American criminal groups as terrorist organizations creates legal leeway for military action.
  • Santoro underscores the contradictions (e.g., Trump pardoning a Honduran ex-president convicted of trafficking for political expediency).
  • Venezuela is a corridor, but not the prime exporter—real focus is symbolic and strategic.

9. Loss of U.S. Influence and Rival Great Powers

• Geopolitical Motivations ([25:50]–[26:39])
  • The U.S. seeks to reassert dominance as its influence wanes and China’s economic footprint (and to an extent, Russian alliance) grows in Latin America.
  • Russia signals readiness to back Venezuela in the event of conflict.
  • The Venezuela scenario is framed as symptomatic of broader transformations in U.S.-Latin American relations.

10. Closing Reflections

• Santoro emphasizes the exceptional and potentially precedent-setting nature of these events in the hemisphere.
• The conversation ends with recognition of increasing risk, fragmentation, and the possibility of Latin American democracies being tested by both crime and the temptation to bypass international norms.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Se ele recuar agora, se ele não atacar a Venezuela, se Nicolás Maduro continuar como presidente do país, isso vai ser utilizado pelo regime chavista... como uma vitória."
  Maurício Santoro, [04:22]
• “Isso é um crime de guerra, isso é assassinato puro e simples.”
  Maurício Santoro on the bombing of survivors, [10:01]
• “Os latino-americanos estão mais simpáticos a uma intervenção militar dos Estados Unidos na Venezuela do que a própria população dos Estados Unidos.”
  Maurício Santoro, [15:38]
• “O governo brasileiro tem sido tão cauteloso... mantendo um discurso muito moderado com relação à Venezuela..."
  Maurício Santoro, [20:57]
• “A democracia também sucumbe quando o crime corrompe as instituições...”
  Narrator/Reporter, [21:52]
• "Doutrina Donald" — a retooling of the Monroe Doctrine to justify intervention.
  [23:22]–[25:50]

Important Timestamps

• [01:15] U.S. bombings in Caribbean—claimed anti-narcoterrorism operations
• [01:39] Trump’s ultimatum to Maduro
• [05:55] UN: Irregularities in Venezuelan elections
• [07:30] Legal challenges to U.S. attacks—alleged war crime
• [10:01] Internal U.S. backlash over adherence to international law
• [11:15] U.S. military capacities in the Caribbean
• [13:57] Impact of Latino exile communities on U.S. foreign policy
• [17:23] Risks for Brazil amid U.S.–Venezuela crisis
• [19:36] Brazil's security cooperation with the U.S.
• [22:41] Trump’s threats against “drug exporting nations”
• [23:53] The “Doctrine Donald” and legal strategies for intervention
• [26:20] Russia signals readiness to support Venezuela

Tone & Language

The episode’s tone is analytical and urgent, consistently grounded in geopolitics, international law, and realpolitik. Santoro and Boiagian engage in clear, accessible dialogue peppered with authoritative references and behind-the-scenes diplomatic insight, anchoring the conversation in current events with serious implications for listeners in Brazil and the wider region.

For listeners keen to understand the most vital security, diplomatic, and humanitarian issues at play in the Venezuela crisis—and why they matter for Brazil—this is an indispensable episode.