Odd Lots x Here's Why – Detailed Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Here’s Why The Iran War Is Prompting A Safe Haven Rethink
Date: March 21, 2026
Hosts: Stephen Carroll (Here's Why), Joe Weisenthal (Odd Lots)
Theme: Examining how the Iran war is reshaping investor perceptions of "safe haven" assets and what recent market responses reveal about where safety lies today.

Episode Overview

This episode investigates how the latest Middle East conflict—specifically, the Iran war—is influencing investor behavior and challenging conventional wisdom about safe haven assets. Joe Weisenthal explains why traditional destinations for risk-off capital aren’t performing according to script, and examines the shifting rationales that guide market participants in times of crisis.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. What Makes a "Safe Haven" Asset?

(01:00 – 03:20)

• Definition and Properties

  • Safe havens are "assets that are not strictly correlated to growth or to risk assets" and are expected to retain value even if the economy suffers.
  • Traditional examples include gold, US Treasuries, the US dollar, and the Swiss franc.
  • Quote:
    “The thing that investors are always looking for is some sort of asset that is not strictly correlated to growth or to risk assets... you expect to hold their value even if things aren’t going great.”
    — Joe Weisenthal [01:33]

• Contrast with Risk Assets

  • Risk assets, like stocks, generally perform when times are good.
  • Safe havens are favored when anxiety rises, offering stability or certainty of payment, regardless of economic conditions.

2. Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the Shifting Role of Safe Havens

(03:20 – 05:31)

• Impact of President Trump’s Trade Tariffs (2025)

  • Previous crises like trade tariffs made the US seem like a less attractive investment; "the net effect... was the US looked like a less attractive place to invest."
  • Unlike true crises, this led to dollar weakness—not a typical safe haven rush.

• New Dynamics During the Iran War

  • The Iran conflict is seen differently: “There is a war going on. We do not know how long this war is going to go on… In that environment, people are not thinking about, is the US a good place to invest. Right now, they're thinking, I am scared.”
  • Now, investors gravitate toward assets likely to retain value even amid macro uncertainty, restoring the dollar's "safe haven" appeal.

• Quote:
  “In 2025, the dollar performed like an investment asset... today the dollar looks good. It’s a safe haven asset—not because the US is a great place to invest per se, but because those safe haven properties have kicked in.”
  — Joe Weisenthal [04:48]

3. US Treasuries: Safe or Not?

(05:31 – 08:36)

• Why Treasuries Are Usually Safe

  • "The fact that the US is very credit worthy, that the US borrows in its own currency," makes Treasuries stand out as safe.
  • Payment is guaranteed by the US government, unlike corporate debt.

• Inflation Concerns

  • Recent inflation surges mean Treasury yields might not outpace rising prices, eroding their value—even if principal is safe.
  • Wars tend to be inflationary ("oil price spikes," "more fiscal expenditure"), making real returns unattractive.

• Behavioral Trade-Off

  • In real crises, investors may accept negative real yields for certainty:
    “If things are really breaking down, you might say, you know what, I’m willing to take a price loss… because the fact that I get paid anything at all... is worth so much to me in this period of anxiety.”
    — Joe Weisenthal [07:25]

• Safe Deposit Box Analogy

  • Willingness to accept negative yields—like paying for a bank safe deposit box—just for security.

4. Gold: The "Universal" Safe Haven—But Not This Time?

(08:36 – 11:52)

• Recent Gold Strength

  • Gold has performed well in recent years, driven by inflation, geopolitical anxiety, and as an alternative to potentially sanction-prone currencies post-2022 (mention of Russia).

• Gold's Weakness During the Iran War

  • Gold isn’t rallying as expected in the current crisis.
  • Explanation: When stress peaks, "dollars suddenly become more interesting" for practical/operational reasons (“I have a rent bill to pay”). Investors may need liquidity, and dollars solve the problem now.

• Physical and Logistical Challenges

  • Gold's drawbacks: it’s "heavy," not easily or instantly available—especially during disruption (e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz).
  • Physical assets may be hard to move or access, reducing their appeal in a crisis of mobility or logistics.

• Quote:
  “You want to just survive to the next month and the way you survive is making sure your bills are paid. Can't pay your bills in gold… in the short term, I need to come up with some dollars.”
  — Joe Weisenthal [09:50]

• Memorable Moment:

  • “[Gold is] heavy. Unlike, say, bitcoin or unlike, say, the dollar, you can't just withdraw it anywhere in the world.” — Joe Weisenthal [10:59]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you can find me a safe haven in this market, I’d be the first one to sign up for that.”
  — Stephen Carroll, voicing investors’ anxiety [00:32]
• On the paradox of Treasuries:
  “A safe deposit box has a negative yield and yet it is often part of someone’s safe haven portfolio.”
  — Joe Weisenthal [08:25]
• The "number go up" phenomenon for gold:
  “Gold has rallied a lot over the last several years and it’s rallied during a period of, I would say, sustained high inflation... number go up, to absolutely quote our colleague Zeke Fox.”
  — A nod to crypto’s exuberant culture [08:39]

Segment Timestamps

• Safe Haven 101: [01:00 – 03:20]
• Tariffs & Trade Wars vs. Iran War: [03:20 – 05:31]
• US Treasuries Debate: [05:31 – 08:36]
• Gold’s Odd Performance: [08:36 – 11:52]

Conclusion

This episode incisively breaks down why traditional safe haven strategies are not behaving as expected against the turbulent backdrop of the Iran war. Geopolitical dangers have changed what investors truly want in times of fear—highlighting that today, liquidity and access matter as much as historical reputation. As Joe Weisenthal concludes, the definition and desirability of "safe haven" assets are dynamic, not timeless—a valuable insight for navigating modern crises.