Odd Lots Podcast: "The Scramble Is On for Businesses to Get Their Tariff Refund Checks"

Date: February 27, 2026
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway
Guest: Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport

Overview

In this episode, Joe and Tracy dig into the practical and economic chaos behind the looming wave of tariff refund checks. With the Supreme Court striking down a tranche of Trump-era tariffs, a massive refund process now faces importers, brokers, and (in theory) consumers. Special guest Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport, unpacks the processes, legal landscape, and supply chain repercussions, as well as the rise of a secondary market for tariff claims and the global chess game of logistics. The episode explores the mechanics of getting refunds, who is eligible, and what this all means for U.S. businesses, global supply chains, and American consumers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who Gets the Tariff Refunds and Why Now?

• Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs: Recent SCOTUS decision has set off a scramble as importers seek refunds on tariffs paid under the now-illegal regime.
• Corporate Rush for Refunds: Large companies are mobilizing to claim potentially huge sums. Ryan predicts with "certainty" (bordering on certainty) that actual refunds will materialize in 2026.
• Secondary Market in Claims: Before the ruling, claims were trading at $0.25 on the dollar, spiking to $0.52 after the decision as refund certainty grows. CEOs now consider selling at $0.70, as the secondary market heats up (05:41).

Quote:
"Those were trading at about 25 cents on the dollar three weeks ago, and it went to 52 cents on the dollar on Friday, the same day of the Supreme Court. Markets move very fast on this stuff."
— Ryan Peterson, (05:41)

2. Legal Process and Practicalities of Refunds

• Court Chain: The Supreme Court remanded the refund process to the Court of International Trade, which has 30 days from Feb 20, 2026, to outline next steps.
• U.S. DOJ Position: The DOJ had already stated that if the government loses, refunds follow (07:15).
• Importers of Record: By law, the “importer of record” — usually a U.S. business or, increasingly, a foreign entity — gets the refund, not the ultimate consumer.

Quote:
"They [the DOJ] filed a motion... that said, if we lose this case, if the government loses this case, there will be refunds. Like, that's from the DOJ."
— Ryan Peterson, (07:15)

3. Bureaucratic Nightmares: Supply Chains and Claims

• Paperwork and Customs Complexity: Calculating eligibility is often "a nightmare" — importers must pull their own records from US Customs’ ACE system, reconcile tariff codes, and possibly file individual protests for refunds (10:40, 38:29).
• Shift Toward Automation: Flexport and others have developed automated tools for companies to simplify and track claims.

Quote:
"The US Customs technology system is called ACE... it's like healthcare.gov times a million in terms of debacle of engineering problem but it works."
— Ryan Peterson, (23:04)

4. Who Really Pays & Global Workarounds

• Passing the Buck: While end consumers believe they paid the tariffs (and sometimes did, via postal service cash on delivery), businesses are the legal claimants. In small parcels, couriers like FedEx are the importer of record and also suing for refunds (11:20).
• Foreign Companies as Importers: Since 2025, foreign companies have rapidly established themselves as importers of record to game the system and minimize tariffs (12:51).

Quote:
"Actually about 20% of the refunds... will be foreign companies. And that nothing is going to piss Trump off worse than that."
— Ryan Peterson, (12:51)

• Fraud and Creative Classification: There’s a fine line between smart classification of goods and outright fraud — purposely mislabeling products or their value is illegal but was rampant under the tariff regime.

5. The Secondary Market for Tariff Claims

• Wall Street's Play: Large banks are facilitating the purchase of tariff refund claims, with current prices around $0.52–$0.70. Companies can choose between waiting for the full amount with interest (potentially over 6%), or selling at a lower but immediate payout due to uncertainty and cash flow needs (41:05).
• Pooling Claims: New platforms aim to allow smaller claimants to pool together for more attractive deals.

6. Supply Chain Adaptations: Global and Domestic Shifts

• Geopolitical Shuffling: Manufacturing has moved to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Turkey, etc. — but often it's Chinese companies setting up new plants abroad (18:39).
• Substantial Transformation vs Transshipment: U.S. law requires “substantial transformation” for a product to escape Chinese origin tariffs, leading to more complex and costly global production flows (19:09).

Quote:
"Chinese companies setting up factories in these countries. And so it's like, literally, you're working with the same company you worked with before..."
— Ryan Peterson, (19:09)

• The De Minimis Loophole and E-Commerce: Even after the clampdown on duty-free imports under $800, companies like SHEIN still thrive by optimizing logistics and minimizing inventory, building major fulfillment networks inside the U.S. (34:58–35:05).

7. Political and Economic Fallout

• Brand Risks & Refund Ethics: Couriers and sellers face a PR risk if they don’t pass along refunds to individual customers. Big retailers like Walmart are already calling suppliers about refund sharing (14:14).
• Corporate Behavior: Some like Costco chose not to pass on bounty to consumers, instead absorbing costs and suing for refunds while preserving customer goodwill (45:15).

Quote:
"They explicitly said they weren't going to pass on the tariff charges to customers. They were just going to, like, eat the loss. But also file suit against the Trump administration saying the tariffs are illegal."
— Tracy Alloway, (45:15)

• Investing (or Spending) the Refunds: Peterson speculates most companies will "just buy a lot more inventory and try to grow their business" with windfall refunds, rather than, say, returning money to consumers (25:00).

8. Future of U.S. Tariff Policy

• New Tariff Tools: Trump administration is already imposing new tariffs under Section 122 (Trade Act 1974), limited to 15% and 150 days (July 2026).
• Legal Loopholes & Gamesmanship: Other tariff authorities, like Sections 301 and 232, may be used to perpetuate trade barriers with some legal maneuvering (27:01–29:14).
• What Happens Next: Expect fast-moving developments, more lawsuits, and a continued patchwork of tariffs, with court fights and regulatory improvisations ongoing.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I have a very high degree of certainty, like bordering on certainty conviction, bordering on certainty, that there will be refunds." — Ryan Peterson (06:40)
• "I think those will likely all get rolled into one and it'll go to court. Now the Court of International Trade has only 30 days from February 20th..." — Ryan Peterson (09:08)
• "There's complexities here. I'm not a legal expert. I'm more of a customs tariffs expert." — Ryan Peterson (10:11)
• "Literally going to wire this money overseas." — Ryan Peterson on foreign companies being major refund recipients (12:51)
• "Creative... with, for listeners with air quotes around there." — Tracy Alloway on importers finding loopholes (14:05)
• "It's a whole art and science is how do you make the case—prove it—that you did in fact get the right HS code classification." — Ryan Peterson (15:43)
• "What you should expect is like between now and July 20th that he'll be using these other mechanisms..." — Ryan Peterson on future tariffs (27:01)
• "You know who did the best was the guys who managed to get a meeting at the White House and shake hands..." — Ryan Peterson (37:01)
• "If you ever, like, show up at a party and you bring a Spanish ham, people will just love you..." — Joe Weisenthal (46:19)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:36 – Opening: Who will get the refund?
• 03:56 – The paperwork and calculation nightmare
• 04:49 – Introducing Ryan Peterson / Flexport's automation
• 05:30 – What companies are doing now regarding refunds
• 06:40 – “Certainty” of refunds coming in 2026
• 07:15 – DOJ’s on-the-record concession about refunds
• 09:08 – Over 2,000 active refund cases before the Court
• 11:05 – Breaking down who actually pays tariffs
• 12:51 – Foreign companies as importers of record and refund claimants
• 14:14 – Loopholes, misclassification, and creative responses
• 18:39 – Supply chain adaptations and Chinese firms abroad
• 23:04 – Complexity and access to import data (ACE system)
• 25:00 – What will companies do with refunds?
• 27:01 – New Trump tariffs under Section 122 and timelines
• 34:58 – De minimis, e-comm giants, and U.S. logistics networks
• 37:01 – Who best navigated the tariffs?
• 38:29 – Nuts and bolts of claiming a refund
• 41:05 – Secondary market for refund claims
• 45:15 – Costco’s approach to tariffs and refunds
• 46:19 – Life hack: Spanish hams and parties

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a behind-the-scenes tour of tariff mechanics, the pending refund bonanza, and the messy, creative, and often opaque world of both global trade and U.S. customs. With financial, legal, political, and logistical elements intersecting, Joe, Tracy, and Ryan deliver an engaging primer for anyone seeking to understand how “money paid in tariffs” transforms into winners, losers, and maybe a few Spanish hams along the way.