Odd Lots – “This Is What Maduro's Arrest Means for the Oil Market”

Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway
Guest: Gregory (Greg) Brew, Senior Analyst, Eurasia Group

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the seismic global, political, and market implications of the stunning U.S. operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Greg Brew, geopolitical and oil market expert, to disentangle what this means for world oil prices, Venezuela’s oil sector, and broader U.S. strategic intent in the hemisphere—including questions of regime change, oil infrastructure, OPEC, and the knock-on effects for allies and rivals like China, Russia, Iran, and neighbors such as Guyana.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Unprecedented Nature of Maduro’s Arrest

• Shock and Mystery

  • The hosts express astonishment at the “earthquake” of the U.S. kidnapping and arrest of a sitting Latin American president.
  • Joe Weisenthal (02:00): “I’m amazed that this could, like, happen. It seems, like, impossible, like, almost uneventful in the way, like, they just went in and took a foreign leader.”

• Underlying Motives

  • Both hosts agree the U.S. was surprisingly brazen, skipping often-cited ideals like democratization.
  • Joe Weisenthal (03:02): “My interpretation is Trump wanted Maduro gone and got Maduro gone... the idea that they're going to dress it up in some obvious ideology ... does not seem to have entered the equation.”
  • There’s speculation that rare earth minerals, not just oil, may have motivated U.S. action (03:24).

2. Venezuela’s Oil: Myth vs. Reality

a. Size and Viability of Reserves

• Biggest in the World?
  • Official numbers claim Venezuela possesses up to 300 billion barrels of reserves—ostensibly more than Saudi Arabia—but these figures are hotly contested.
  • Tracy Alloway (07:22): “Do we actually know that Venezuela has a lot of oil?”
• Greg Brew's Technical Breakdown
  • There could be close to a trillion barrels in place—but “proven reserves” depend on oil prices, costs, investment, and security.
  • The 300-billion-barrel headline number dates to a time of $100-a-barrel prices; at today’s lower prices, much less is truly viable.
  • Greg Brew (09:30): “Saying that Venezuela has 300 billion barrels of oil...just isn’t accurate. The oil is there, but trying to get it out in the current market conditions ... the figure is much lower than 300 billion.”
  • Neighboring Guyana by contrast has proven reserves of “around 20 billion barrels.”

b. History of Deterioration

• Long View
  • Venezuela was a key global oil exporter—rivaling anyone except the U.S.—for most of the 20th century. Output peaked above 3 million barrels per day decades ago.
  • Nationalization cycles, especially under Chávez and Maduro, dried up foreign investment and undercut maintenance, causing output to plummet.
  • Greg Brew (13:04): “Chavez... pushes further nationalizations... demands much higher royalties, pulling more money out of the existing deals. And as a result, production starts to fall...PDVESA [the state oil company] is turning... into basically a piggy bank for Chavez and his government.”

3. Oil Markets’ Muted Response — And Why

• Reserve Size vs. Production Capability

  • Price and investment, infrastructure decay, and technical barriers mean reserves are not immediately “available” oil.
  • When markets opened after the arrest, oil prices barely moved.
  • Joe Weisenthal (10:39): “What matters, I presume, is capacity to pump barrels and sell them.”

• Chevron’s Calculated Approach

  • Chevron is the only major Western firm still operating in Venezuela, due to sunken costs in specialized refineries and a history of playing both U.S. and Venezuelan sides for waivers and permissions.
  • Greg Brew (19:06): “Chevron spent a long time developing their position in Venezuela... the sunken cost for them is considerable... they want to hold onto what they have and expand it. And...Venezuela is still geographically a very attractive place to operate if you have lots of US Downstream assets.”

4. Political Fallout and U.S. Strategic Aims

• Regime Change Without “Regime Change”
  • Despite removing Maduro, his party remains in power under Vice President Rodriguez; the U.S. seems content with this limited disruption.
  • Greg Brew (22:14): “From the US Point of View, getting Maduro out was the goal... This was about removing Maduro. Not regime change. It isn’t even regime decapitation, because Maduro was replaceable and they filled his shoes with somebody else. And the administration seems perfectly fine with that.”
• What the U.S. Actually Wants
  • Immediate goals: demonstrate U.S. power, reassert Monroe Doctrine-style hemispheric primacy.
  • Economic goals (oil, rare earths) are more ambiguous and likely secondary.
  • Greg Brew (31:35): “For Trump…I think there’s an allure in making this about materials and making it about energy… But at the end of the day… gasoline prices are going to remain low for reasons that have nothing to do with what the U.S. Is doing in Venezuela.”

5. Barriers to Foreign Oil Investment Returning

• Three Preconditions:

  1. Sanctions and the oil export blockade must be lifted.
  2. Oil prices must rise far above the current $60/barrel.
  3. Security and infrastructure risk must be drastically reduced.

• Greg Brew (25:04): “No one’s going to want to go in and spend money in Venezuela if they can’t be guaranteed access to foreign markets... Even if the price were to go up... that’s still too great of a risk to take on at this time.”

6. Regional and Geopolitical Ramifications

• Guyana Standoff Defused

  • Venezuela’s saber-rattling over Guyanese oil fields is likely to subside, as Rodriguez’s government focuses on survival and international approval.
  • Greg Brew (27:25): “We’re probably not going to hear any more from Venezuela about threatening Guyana... now the attitude seems... We want to work with the U.S. we want sanctions relief, we want to lift the blockade.”

• OPEC’s Irrelevance for Venezuela

  • With current output so low, Venezuela is a “marginal member” (38:24), excused from quotas. OPEC core is now the Gulf Arab countries and Russia—focused on maintaining market share rather than shoring up price.
  • Greg Brew (39:10): “OPEC is trying to unwind that... OPEC is looking ahead... and they reckon, you know, we’ll have $50 crude in 2026 and then $80, maybe even $90 crude.”

• Allies and Rivals: China, Iran, Russia

  • China was blindsided (their delegation was in Caracas during the raid) and is “alarmed”—not so much for losing Maduro as for lack of advance notice from the U.S.
    • Greg Brew (41:12): “Chinese put out a statement where they expressed their alarm in very explicit terms... I think they were more mad that the US didn’t tell them in advance.”
  • Iran is “terrified” it could be next, signaling frantically and warning of preemptive actions—but no immediate U.S. invasion is likely (42:49, 42:57).
  • Russia is unconcerned: Venezuela has been only a “soft partner” and this event does not threaten Moscow’s interests.

• Broader U.S. Leverage

  • The demonstration of high-tech U.S. force—encompassing aircraft, cyberwarfare, suicide drones, and insider flip—raises anxiety for leaders throughout the hemisphere and, potentially, further afield.
  • Greg Brew (36:09): “The US didn’t just send in special operations teams... US aircraft jammed Venezuelan communications... reportedly used suicide drones for the first time... this opens up the aperture of, you know, what 21st-century warfare looks like.”

7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Maduro Operation as a “Face Value” Move
  • Joe Weisenthal (03:02): “My interpretation is Trump wanted Maduro gone and got Maduro gone.”
• Chevron's Strategy
  • Greg Brew (19:06): "The sunken cost for them is considerable... [Chevron's] willingness to remain is about protecting a privileged position and huge infrastructural investments."
• On Oil Market Indifference
  • Joe Weisenthal (10:39): “...what matters... is capacity to pump barrels and sell them.”
• On the True Purpose of U.S. Action
  • Greg Brew (31:35): “This was first and foremost about demonstrating US Primacy in the Western Hemisphere.”
• 21st-Century Covert Warfare
  • Greg Brew (36:09): "...there’s a kind of an underreported element here... the technological side... the U.S... used suicide drones for the first time... used a cyber tool to knock power out in Caracas..."

8. Lighter Moments

• Heavy Sour Crude, the Band

  • Tracy Alloway (17:41): “Joe, I’m gonna start a rival band called Heavy Sour Crude. It’s gonna be the complete opposite.”

• Movie Theater Anecdotes

  • Tracy Alloway (18:01): "...they were selling life insurance alongside the ticket to the movie theater..."

• Cuba and The Godfather

  • Tracy Alloway (45:33): “Joe I watched the Godfather 2 over Christmas and now I consider myself a Cuban history expert.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Maduro’s Arrest: Is this really about oil/rare earths or just power? – 01:55–04:35
• Technical breakdown of Venezuela’s oil reserves – 07:54–10:39
• Chevron’s persistence and why other majors left – 18:44–21:25
• Political goals of the operation and U.S. objectives – 21:25–24:40
• What’s needed to bring investment back into Venezuela – 24:55–27:05
• Guyana and regional fallout – 27:05–29:16
• Is this really about oil? – 29:31–31:35
• Geopolitical/technological innovation in the operation – 35:34–37:50
• OPEC’s role and why Venezuela is peripheral – 37:56–40:23
• Global response: China, Iran, Russia – 40:23–44:47

Summary Takeaways

Maduro’s removal is a landmark event—but the immediate effect on the oil market is limited.
While Venezuela’s oil reserves are immense on paper, crumbling infrastructure, technical and political risk, and global oversupply mean little oil will flow anytime soon. Most industry and investment actors remain wary. The U.S. administration’s motivations appear rooted as much in strategic demonstration of power as in resource access, and the shockwaves extend far beyond markets—affecting regional politics, great-power competition, and perceptions of U.S. willingness for bold, high-tech interventions in its “backyard.”

OPEC, neighboring countries, and great powers are all watching and recalibrating.
OPEC discounts Venezuela’s capacity; China and Iran are spooked by evolving U.S. tactics; and the scenario creates an opening for further U.S. leverage (and worry) across the hemisphere.

In the longer term, the real uncertainty is not about oil, but about the boundaries of U.S. action—and the new playbook it’s just revealed.

For the full-depth, nuanced explanation in Greg Brew’s own words, refer to the indicated timestamps above.