A Major American Egg Farm Just Lost 90% of its Chickens

Summary

Odd Lots Podcast Summary: "A Major American Egg Farm Just Lost 90% of its Chickens"

Introduction In the June 7, 2025 episode of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway delve into a critical issue plaguing the American agriculture sector: a catastrophic outbreak of bird flu that has decimated a major egg farm, leading to severe disruptions in egg supply and pricing. Recorded on National Egg Day, the episode provides an in-depth analysis of the current crisis, its causes, and its broader economic implications.

Background: The Rise and Fall of Egg Prices Tracy Alloway opens the discussion by reminiscing about the recent spike in egg prices, which had soared to $10 per dozen due to shortages and avian flu outbreaks. However, by the time of recording, egg prices had plummeted from $8.24 to $3.44 per dozen, leading to a sudden lack of public discourse on the issue.

Tracy remarks, "...egg prices paid to Midwest producers, they've gone from like $8.24 to something like $3.44. So we've seen a really dramatic decline" (02:04).

Joe Weisenthal adds, "There are certain charts in the world that we only talk about when they're going up... prices for things like certain food items, we tend to only talk about on the way up" (02:08).

Current Crisis: Massive Losses Due to Bird Flu The episode introduces Glenn Hickman, president of Hickman's Egg Ranch in Arizona, who reveals a devastating development: his company has lost approximately 6 million chickens to bird flu, amounting to a 95% loss across their farms.

Tracy explains, "...we have just lost 95% of their chickens to the flu" (03:19).

Glenn details, "We have four laying farms here in the state of Arizona... our biggest farm... got sick with bird flu... now we've got a total infection of about 6 million birds that we're in the process of depopulating" (04:05).

Endemic Bird Flu: Causes and Challenges Glenn elaborates on the persistence of bird flu, indicating that it has become endemic in various environments. He highlights the challenges in rebuilding the national laying flock due to continuous reinfection cycles.

"It's endemic in several environments... the pressure to get inside the barns where the chickens are is the 24, 7, 365 pressure" (06:20).

Impact on Egg Prices and Supply Despite the ongoing crisis, egg prices have decreased significantly. Glenn attributes this decline to reduced demand as consumers seek alternatives and increased imports from countries utilizing vaccination programs.

"The high prices did cause some people to seek alternatives... we've also had eggs allowed in from other countries... traditionally, in the summertime, egg prices are softer because of a lessening in demand" (06:42).

Joe observes, "...even with this big price drop, it's come down. And you mentioned that it's become endemic. Is that a policy failure? Is there something we could substantively do different?" (08:00).

Government Response and Vaccine Accessibility A critical point of discussion revolves around the availability and distribution of poultry vaccines in the United States. Glenn criticizes the bureaucratic delays preventing access to vaccines that are readily available and used abroad.

"We've been unable to access that same vaccine. I think it has caught up in some kind of bureaucratic merry go round... we want to start vaccinating these flocks" (08:50).

Tracy questions, "Has the Trump administration done anything in terms of bird flu?" (09:06), to which Glenn responds, "They allocated $800 million towards different mitigation... but they need to allow vaccination... it's being held up because of the meat bird industry" (09:30).

Financial Implications for the Egg Farm Glenn discusses the financial strain caused by the loss of millions of chickens, including challenges in fulfilling customer contracts and the long-term impact on production capabilities.

"We will be below full production for the next better part of two years" (14:03).

He adds, "We have good relations with our banks... but rehiring trained personnel and replacing institutional knowledge will be our hardest challenge" (14:50).

Future of the Egg Industry The conversation shifts to the broader implications for the egg industry, including potential consolidation and the exit of smaller farms due to increased risks and reduced profitability.

Glenn notes, "There’s been lots of farms in the last three years that have sold out to companies that want to continue to shoulder this kind of risk" (17:28).

Joe reflects on the societal impact, stating, "This could just be the end of cheap X. It seems like a very disturbing, like a deeply disturbing story about the US Economy... like we're going backwards as a society when this is happening" (19:52).

Conclusion: Calls for Solutions and Centralized Action In closing, Glenn emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive solutions, including widespread vaccination, to stabilize the egg supply and prevent further economic fallout.

"We do need a solution" (18:13).

Tracy and Joe echo the sentiment, highlighting the necessity of centralized public health responses to address endemic bird flu and support the agricultural sector.

Final Thoughts The hosts conclude by underscoring the complexity of the egg industry crisis, likening it to similar agricultural challenges worldwide and stressing the importance of sustainable practices and policy interventions to avert further degradation of supply chains and economic stability.

Notable Quotes

• Glenn Hickman on endemic bird flu: "It's airborne. It rides in on a dust particle... we need a vaccine" (11:38).
• Joe Weisenthal on market challenges: "get things cheaper over time is like sustained competitive pressure... you need that centralizing force" (20:10).

Closing Remarks This episode of Odd Lots sheds light on the intricate challenges facing the egg industry amid a severe bird flu outbreak. Through Glenn Hickman's firsthand account and the hosts' incisive questions, listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the economic, logistical, and policy-related hurdles that must be overcome to restore stability to egg production and pricing in the United States.

Transcript

[Mark Reap]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Charles Schwab]

This episode is brought to you by Charles Schwab. When is the right time to sell a stock? How do you protect against inflation? Financial decisions can be tricky. Your cognitive and emotional biases can lead you astray. Financial Decoder, an original podcast from Charles Schwab can help [e-mail] financial decoder when.

[Mark Reap]

You'Re with AMEX Business Platinum, going the extra mile for your business pays off. With five times membership rewards points on flights and prepaid hotels booked through amextravel.com, you can earn more points to help grow your business. And with access to more than 1,400 lounges globally through the American Express Global Lounge Collection, including the Centurion Lounge.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Can I get you a refill?

[Mark Reap]

You can stay fresh wherever your business travel takes you. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms apply. Learn more@American Express.com Amex Business Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Tracy Alloway]

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

[Tracy Alloway]

So, Jo, just a few months ago, you will remember, I'm sure, egg prices were a really big deal. And we had all these headlines about eggs costing like $10 a dozen and shortages of eggs at supermarkets or eggs being rationed. And it even became a sort of political touchstone. It featured in the elections. And fast forward to today, and it feels like no one's really talking about egg prices anymore. Egg prices paid to Midwest producers, they've gone from like $8.24 to something like $3.44. So we've seen a really dramatic decline. We're recording this, by the way, on June 3, which happens to be National Egg Day.

[Joe Weisenthal]

When you look at the price, you can see why no one is talking about it anymore.

[Tracy Alloway]

Right.

[Joe Weisenthal]

There are certain charts in the world that we only talk about when they're going up.

[Tracy Alloway]

They're parabolic.

[Joe Weisenthal]

There's others that we only talk about when they're going down. Prices for things like certain food items, we tend to only talk about on the way up.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah, but here's my big question. As far as I can tell, bird flu is still very much with us. So, you know, the thing that caused egg prices to spike in the first place. And so I'm very curious why prices have come down. How much of it is just people who stopped buying eggs because they were so expensive versus how much of it is maybe the poultry supply got built back up. And I'm happy to say we have the perfect guest to discuss all of this, although the context in which we're talking is actually very sad. We're going to be speaking with Glenn Hickman. He is the president of Hickman's Egg Ranch in Arizona, one of the largest egg producers in the U.S. and you might remember, Glenn, from our special three part series, Beat Capitalism, in which we talked about soaring egg prices and avian flu. And unfortunately there's been a pretty dramatic development for the EG since then and they have just lost 95% of their chickens to the flu.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, I mean, it's an absolutely staggering number. One thing before we get into the conversation that I think is really striking is that you mentioned that prices have come down by basically any measure. And I'm looking at that Midwest delivery number that's gone from over 800 to 344. I mean, compared to years before it. I mean, that was below 100 for a long time. So even though prices have come down from that recent spike, eggs are, they're very expensive these days. And so there's clearly this like persistent issue and something has changed. Maybe it's bird flu, something else that continues to put sustained upward price on eggs.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah. So we need to talk about all of this. So, Glenn, welcome back to the show. I wish it were under better circumstances.

[Glenn Hickman]

Well, thank you for having me.

[Tracy Alloway]

So why don't you go ahead and tell us what exactly is going on? Like what's the situation over at the egg ranch?

[Glenn Hickman]

Sure. We have four laying farms here in the state of Arizona. Our farm down south in the city of Maricopa got sick with bird flu in November. And then it was when we tried to refill the farm in January, it got reinfected again. So that farm is still just barely populated. They've got 340,000 chickens down there. But two weeks ago on Friday, our biggest farm in Tonopah, Arizona got sick with bird flu. And subsequent to that, our two other farms in Arlington, Arizona have gotten bird flu. And virtually all of our replacement pullets have gotten bird flu. So right now, today, we've got a total infection of about 6 million birds that we're in the process of depopulating.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Bird flu comes and goes from time to time in the U.S. can you talk a little bit about this current, what seems to be a sustained wave? And of course, the first time we talked to you, I think was either in late 2020.

[Tracy Alloway]

Late 2022.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Late 2022. And then that went away and then it came back. Do you have an explanation of what is going on big picture that this is a sustained, persistent problem in bird health.

[Glenn Hickman]

Sure. When this round of bird flu started on the East coast in February 2022, it was still thought to be a seasonal challenge that was carried by migratory waterfowl. Now, I wouldn't say that it's gone away and came back. I'd say it's more ebbed a little bit, Joe, that we' however, since those first flocks got sick in 2022, we have not been able to fully rebuild our nation's laying flock before the next wave of bird flu starts. So right now, what we know to be true is it's endemic in several environments. We know that we've had wildlife services out trapping sparrows and pigeons and vermin and ground squirrels, those kind of things, and it's all testing positive for bird flu. So it's now endemic in our environment. And it's something that, you know, the pressure to get inside the barns where the chickens are is the 24, 7, 365 pressure.

[Tracy Alloway]

So on this note, this is basically my question. Egg prices have come down a lot. Why exactly is that? If bird flu is still with us, if we haven't really rebuilt the nation's chicken supply, is it down to demand destruction and eggs just getting too expensive, or is it all the eggs we started importing? What exactly accounts for the big fall in price?

[Glenn Hickman]

Tracy, I'm not an economist, but I will tell you that the high prices did cause some people to seek alternatives for breakfast, whether it's yogurt and berries or, you know, peanut butter on some toast. And we've also had eggs allowed in from other countries that have taken over some of the industrial needs. And so we also, traditionally, in the summertime, egg prices are softer because of a lessening in demand. People just don't have the same routines in the summertime where they get up and eat a hot breakfast before heading out the door.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I have to say I just find this to be a very disturbing, like a deeply disturbing story about the US Economy or something about the US which is that you look at this chart and I extended it going back further, and you just have this very quiet sideways line in egg prices that moves around very little bit. There are a couple of modest spikes, and then in the last few years there's been this surge. And so even with this big price drop, it's come down. And you mentioned that it's become endemic. Like, is that a. Is it a policy failure? Is there something we could substantively do different? And in your view, is There any prospect for like a 2013 style supply and demand equation, Joe?

[Glenn Hickman]

We'd like to have nothing better. We can protect our flocks. And I'm just going to say we're very, very frustrated right now. Today, our country manufactures vaccine for poultry to protect them against avian flu, and we ship it to countries in Europe and other places. So we're making the vaccine here every day and we're protecting flocks in other countries. We've been unable to access that same vaccine. I think we have it caught up in some kind of bureaucratic merry go round and we just can't seem to get it pushed over the fence line. I know that we have industry officials meeting with the usda, but I think it's going to come down to President Trump is going to have to say, we want this nonsense to stop and we want to start vaccinating these flocks.

[Tracy Alloway]

Has the Trump administration done anything in terms of bird flu? Because I know Trump has talked about egg prices and taking credit for it, but I've been having difficulty, like, identifying specific policies or changes that they've actually done since January.

[Glenn Hickman]

Yes, very much. They've become involved. They allocated, I think it was $800 million towards different mitigation, you know, biosecurity programs, research and such like that. But there needs to be no more research on vaccine. It's available right now and basically it's being held up because of the meat bird industry that doesn't want to vaccinate their flocks.

[Tracy Alloway]

Right. Because then they can't export them to certain countries that don't allow vaccinated birds.

[Glenn Hickman]

Yeah. They cannot export their surpluses to other countries if they were locked out of those markets because they were vaccinating their birds.

[Joe Weisenthal]

This is such an amazing example of some of the pickles of international trade. It's like we sell vaccines abroad so that other countries can, you know, avoid the bird flu for eggs. And then we don't want to use it, not because of the eggs, but because those countries don't want to take vaccinated chicken. Before we get into what happens now in terms of rebuilding the flock, can you just walk us through a little bit more the last several weeks? Like, when did you realize, like, what is the moment where you realize you have to do a massive call and what's that like?

[Glenn Hickman]

Well, we started to see a few sick chickens on May 14, and, you know, it wasn't a big increase and so we didn't think too much about it. On May 15, we saw a bigger increase. We Took swabs of the sick chickens down to the University of Arizona lab, detected bird flu on the 16th. And then we've been in a massive operation to depopulate our farms ever since then.

[Tracy Alloway]

Do you have any idea of how the flu got in? Because I know you had a lot of protective measures in place, including laser beams to scare away wild birds and things like that. What's your theory for how the chickens got sick?

[Glenn Hickman]

Tracy? I don't know why the government wants to say this virus is not airborne, but it is airborne. We didn't track this in on someone's shoe. We didn't have a wild bird that was sick get into one of the barns. That's just not happening. What happens is it's airborne. It rides in on a dust particle. And you know, these barns, we have to ventilate them. We have to bring in fresh air for the birds to breathe. And there's just no way to filter that kind of volume at that kind of filtration level. So that's why we need a vaccine. There's no mechanical ways left that our industry has not tried to keep the virus on the outside.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Talk to us about the process of rebuilding a flock step by step. What do you actually have to do and how long does that take?

[Glenn Hickman]

Well, generally speaking, our replacement flocks are geared to replace our flock every 20 months. So for us, it's roughly 300,000 birds a month that we bring in and we grow to adult size to, to put in the, in the layer barns. That's a staggered 5% per month for 20 months to get our flocks replaced. So when we've lost everything basically within a two week time span, it's still going to take us 20 months to totally rebuild that flock. But we're going to be suffering through this for quite a while.

[Charles Schwab]

This episode is brought to you by Charles Schwab. When is the right time to sell a stock? How do you protect against inflation? Are you taking the right risks with your portfolio? Financial decisions can be tricky, and often your own cognitive and emotional biases can lead you astray. Financial Decoder, an original podcast from Charles Schwab can help join host Mark Reap as he offers practical solutions to help overcome the cognitive and emotional biases that may affect your investing decisions. [e-mail] financialdecoder when you're with Amex Business.

[Mark Reap]

Platinum, you have the card that helps businesses dream bigger, get a flexible spending limit that adapts with your business, and earn one 1.5 times Membership Rewards points on select business purchases so you can stock up on what you need to take your business further and get rewarded for growing bigger. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Not all purchases will be approved. Terms apply. Learn [e-mail] AmExBusiness okay, so I believe.

[Tracy Alloway]

You get compensated for chickens that you have to cull, although maybe it changes when we're talking, you know, 6 million chickens versus 100,000 or something like that. And I know that you've said that you're not going to be able to fulfill your contracts with customers going forward because of all of this. Talk to us about the financial position that this leaves you in.

[Glenn Hickman]

Well, we're part of an egg marketing cooperative, so we do have access to some of our other members eggs, and that's what we're doing right now and bringing those eggs in and making sure that the store shelves stay full. With regards to the compensation from the government, we get paid, not just we, but anyone in our industry gets paid to depopulate the flock, clean the facilities, eliminate the virus, and they approximate the cost of the chicken to repopulate that. They don't compensate you for the loss of income. Like again, in our instance, we will be below full production for the next better part of two years.

[Tracy Alloway]

Wow.

[Joe Weisenthal]

How are you going to as a business, what is that going to mean when you think about the future of the business but the short term to have so many months of lost income now?

[Glenn Hickman]

Well, thankfully we have, you know, we have good relations with our banks. We have, you know, some resources of our own. And so we feel like we're going to be able to take the time to rebuild those flocks and such. But, you know, I think the challenge that we're going to have is rehiring the people that we need that have been trained, some of them been with us as long as I've been here. And so that loss of institutional knowledge is what we're going to have the hardest thing to try to replace.

[Tracy Alloway]

Hmm. So I know you're not an economist and you're not in the business of making price forecasts, but do you have a sense of what's going to happen to egg prices from here, not just because of the loss of, you know, your millions of chickens, but also because it really seems like bird flu is, as you said, becoming endemic in the.

[Glenn Hickman]

U.S. well, there's two things. I mean, there's supply and there's demand. And so we are bringing eggs in from other countries. That's helping on the supply side of things. You know, as a as kind of an interesting point, we are bringing eggs in from Mexico where they routinely do vaccinate their flocks, and we're bringing those eggs in. So that's one of the ways we're going to be able to address this. But frankly, you guys, we're not going to have a steady supply of eggs that we've enjoyed, you know, for the past hundred years if we don't stop the spread of bird flu. And so the only way to do that now that this has become, you know, something we live with all the time, is to vaccinate our flocks so we can protect them.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Does everyone else in the world use chicken vaccines at this point?

[Glenn Hickman]

No, I don't think everyone does. I know that there's several European countries that do. I know that Mexico vaccinates their flocks and I think it's gaining wider and wider spread acceptance every place.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Okay. You have now there's sort of multiple years of this and even the reestablishing of the flock feels like it's going to be a risky process. Right, because you're going to spend maybe 20 months or close to two years getting back to full capacity. But then, of course, the flu could strike again. Do you think that when we think about the sort of sustained, steady rate of where egg prices are going to go, maybe it's not you, because you have scale and you have money and you have good access to capital, but that essentially you see farmers sort of depart the egg game, depart the egg industry, because it appears, and maybe accurately to be higher risk than it used to be due to the disease being endemic. And then there's just sort of, you know, less competitive pressure. And you know, competitive pressure drives prices lower.

[Glenn Hickman]

Well, Joe, I think we're seeing it already. There's been lots of farms in the last three years that have sold out to companies that, that want to continue to shoulder this kind of risk. And I think that we're going to continue to see that happen. You know, the egg industry by and large are all family owned farms. And so, you know, it does test one's commitment when, you know, we cannot control our future.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right, Glenn, we're going to leave it there, but thank you so much for coming on. All thoughts again. And as I said, I wish it were under better circumstances, but we appreciate you explaining everything that's happened, Tracy.

[Glenn Hickman]

I, I appreciate being able to, to kind of tell our story and try to keep this in the, in the public eye. We do need a solution.

[Tracy Alloway]

Thank you, Glenn. That was great as always. And As I said, really appreciate you taking the time given everything that's going on.

[Glenn Hickman]

Okay. Hey, thanks guys. Have a good day.

[Tracy Alloway]

So Joe, obviously appreciate getting that update on the business from Glenn, because as I said, eggs and bird flu have to some extent fallen out of the headlines, but like they're still going on in the background and it's still a really interesting case study in industry economics. As you pointed out, prices are just more volatile than they've been for much of history. And this is something that you find I think increasingly and especially in agriculture, where you have these big one off shocks, it's really, really difficult for the market to recalibrate itself.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, it seems very plausible to me that this could just be the end of cheap X. Right. Because you have this consolidation, you have this persistent added cost because of the risk, et cetera. So even when we get this decline, they're still much more expensive than they used to be. You have less competitive pressure, et cetera. And I find this to be like deeply disturbing. Like this to me seems like a very crystal clear example of sort of society going backwards. And the reason I think eggs are important is because arguably sort of cheaper and cheaper protein is the hallmark of a sort of rising standard of living. This really feels to me like we are going backwards as a society when this is happening.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, and when this happens, it also becomes harder and harder to I guess, gauge the future of the business and figure out how much you're supposed to invest in it.

[Glenn Hickman]

Right.

[Tracy Alloway]

If you're getting these wild swings in prices and then the risk is, you know, you have over capacity and then under capacity and then over capacity and it just keeps oscillating forever.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And like the essence of like get things getting cheaper over time is like sustained competitive pressure. Everyone wants to invest and everyone wants to eat each other's margin. Right? And that's like, you know, when capitalism is working at the best. And you're not going to get that at a time when you have fewer and fewer participants and more and more reasons just not to even take the risk in the first place. And it clearly is one of these situations, as Glenn was emphasizing, where you have to have a quote, you know, a public health response. And the market isn't going to do it on its own in terms of either eliminating bird flu or eliminating the risk of bird flu. And so you need to have that centralizing force. And right now it doesn't seem like it's there.

[Tracy Alloway]

My analog for all of this is swine fever in China. There was a really big outbreak there. Did you know that China lost 30 million small to medium sized pig farms between 2007 and late 2020?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Had like half a billion of them, right? Like. No. Yeah, yeah, no, it illustrates the point.

[Tracy Alloway]

About the big getting bigger. And in fact, the share of small pig farmers in the market went from like 74% in 2007 to less than a third in 2023.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It does seem in the. On the flip side, it does seem like this is the story with agriculture period. And I recall our conversation with the Lentil King talking about how like, you know, even what we might think of as a, quote, family farm, unquote, in Canada might have, you know, hundreds of thousands of acres at this point.

[Tracy Alloway]

I think it's a little different in China. But you see the point I'm making.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, yeah, no, I definitely see the point that you're making. It just seems like there are so many forces that are conspiring towards this. The big getting bigger within agriculture and when you look at the pricing and anyway, I find it like deeply worrying as like the trajectory of society that we can't get this under control.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, on that happy note, shall we leave it there?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let's leave it there.

[Tracy Alloway]

This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at thestalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez, ermenarman, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kalebrooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about these topics 24. 7 in our Discord Discord GG oddlots.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we catch up with egg farmers, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

[Mark Reap]

Sam.

[Glenn Hickman]

Thrivent can help you plan your finances for the people, causes and community you love. What makes Thrivent Different Financial services and generosity programs are combined to help you build the financial roadmap for the future while also creating opportunities to give back along the way. Visit thrivent.com to learn more.

[Mark Reap]

Thrivent where money means more in business, plans change fast and your brand has to keep up. That's why teams rely on 4imprint for promotional products that deliver. 4imprint offers thousands of options including apparel, drinkware, tech and trade show gear. Many available with 24 hour turnaround helping you move quickly and never compromise in quality. You'll enjoy free samples, expert support and every order backed by their 360 degree guarantee so it arrives right and on time. Explore [e-mail] For Imprint for certain this is an iHeart podcast.