Odd Lots Podcast: Bill Beach on How Trump Just Politicized US Economic Data

Release Date: August 4, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway
Guest: Bill Beach, Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Introduction

In this compelling episode of Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway delve into the intersection of politics and economic data in the United States. The focal point of their discussion revolves around the recent tumultuous events surrounding the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), particularly the abrupt dismissal of its Commissioner, Erica McEnteffer, by former President Donald Trump. Joining the conversation is Bill Beach, the former Commissioner of the BLS, who provides insider perspectives on the implications of this political maneuvering for the integrity of US economic data.

Shocking Jobs Report Revisions

The episode begins with Joe and Tracy dissecting the latest jobs report, which revealed a significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls by 258,000 jobs—a figure not seen since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tracy Alloway [02:30]: "We had a combined 258,000 jobs basically lowered from the initial reports. And this was like the biggest revision since the depths of, of the pandemic."

Key Points:

• Initial vs. Revised Numbers: The initial report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which was 30% lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose to nearly 4.3%.
• Sector-Specific Growth: The only significant job creation was in healthcare and social services, indicating a possible stalling in broader economic momentum due to tariff-induced slowdowns.

Trump's Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner

A pivotal moment in the episode is the discussion of President Trump's decision to fire Erica McEnteffer, the head of the BLS, immediately following the release of the disappointing jobs report.

Tracy Alloway [02:51]: "The big thing that seemed to catch everyone's attention was we also had these massive revisions to the report for May and June."

Bill Beach [06:34]: "What was shocking about this is not that she was dismissed. That's shocking enough. It was the possibility that we could have now a sustained attack on official economic statistics..."

Implications Discussed:

• Authority and Legitimacy: While the president has the authority to dismiss the BLS head, the act raises concerns about the politicization of economic data.
• Trust in Data: Such actions can erode public trust in the accuracy and objectivity of economic statistics, leading to broader skepticism about the state of the US economy.
• Historical Context: Bill Beach references the Nixon administration's similar attempts to influence the BLS, highlighting the long-term damage such actions can inflict.

Insights from Bill Beach

Bill Beach provides a nuanced understanding of the BLS's operational challenges and the potential consequences of its leadership being subjected to political pressures.

Background and Credentials:

Bill Beach [08:10]: "I served a little less than two years under President Trump. He nominated me... I was Commissioner from 2019 until 2023."

Key Concerns Raised:

• Data Collection Challenges: The BLS faces declining response rates and rising costs in conducting surveys, making it increasingly difficult to maintain the quality and reliability of economic data.

  Bill Beach [08:10]: "We're at a crisis level to modernize the way we collect data. The response rates on the surveys are falling dramatically."

• Need for Modernization: Emphasizing the importance of adopting new technologies and methodologies to enhance data collection and analysis, which requires both budgetary support and legislative action.

  Bill Beach [14:28]: "Congress could, could easily do that... these tests expand the costs of your unemployment statistics program because you're running essentially two systems simultaneously."

• Impact of Political Interference: The dismissal of the BLS head underlines the vulnerability of statistical agencies to political whims, potentially undermining the objectivity and credibility of economic data.

  Bill Beach [18:14]: "People will say, well, St. Peter probably influenced that number and it's not as bad as it really is... That suspicion... will be in the minds of some people."

Operational Mechanics of the BLS Jobs Report

The hosts and Bill Beach explore the intricate process behind the non-farm payrolls report, elucidating why revisions occur and what they signify about the economy.

Bill Beach [10:31]: "So the employment survey, the jobs numbers come from a survey of businesses... Only about 68%, usually, that's the average do so."

Key Insights:

• Survey Methodology: The initial jobs figures are based on surveys from a sample of businesses with about 68% response rates. Subsequent revisions incorporate additional data as more businesses respond, often bringing the figure closer to the actual number.

• Significance of Revisions: Contrary to public perception, larger revisions are not necessarily errors but reflect a more accurate picture as more data becomes available. Significant revisions can indicate economic turning points.

  Bill Beach [12:15]: "The revisions have been high recently, but this is not a typical of a period when the economy is either going back to growth or going down to subsidence."

Future of the BLS and Economic Data Collection

Looking ahead, the discussion pivots to the necessary steps for revitalizing the BLS's data collection capabilities and restoring trust in its outputs.

Recommendations by Bill Beach:

• Increased Funding: Allocating additional budgetary resources to modernize data collection methods and experiment with new technologies such as electronic surveys and blended data approaches.

  Bill Beach [14:28]: "BLS would be very happy with that. But we do need more money."

• Parallel Testing of New Methodologies: Implementing simultaneous systems to ensure that new data collection methods are reliable and compatible with existing data before full-scale adoption.

  Bill Beach [14:28]: "...you want to run tests, you want to test out your new idea... It doesn’t mean you want to have a count the number of geese in the air and that's the unemployment rate."

• Protecting Statistical Agencies from Political Influence: Ensuring that agencies like the BLS remain insulated from political pressures to preserve the integrity and objectivity of economic data.

  Bill Beach [18:14]: "Those people who work there, the professionals... are still in place. But you're going to be subject to these falsehoods and accusations and that will be damaging."

Conclusion

The episode underscores the delicate balance between political oversight and the necessity for independent, reliable economic data. The actions taken by former President Trump to dismiss the BLS Commissioner highlight the potential threats to data integrity and the broader implications for economic policy and public trust. Bill Beach's insights call for urgent modernization and increased support for statistical agencies to navigate the evolving challenges in data collection and analysis.

Joe Weisenthal [17:22]: "The BLS could use some upgrading... the new data is sort of provably backwards compatible with the old data."

As the administration prepares to appoint a new BLS Commissioner, the episode leaves listeners contemplating the future of economic data in the US and the paramount importance of safeguarding its credibility against political tides.

Notable Quotes

• Tracy Alloway [02:30]: "We had a combined 258,000 jobs basically lowered from the initial reports. And this was like the biggest revision since the depths of, of the pandemic."

• Bill Beach [06:34]: "What was shocking about this is not that she was dismissed. That's shocking enough. It was the possibility that we could have now a sustained attack on official economic statistics..."

• Bill Beach [08:10]: "We're at a crisis level to modernize the way we collect data. The response rates on the surveys are falling dramatically."

• Bill Beach [14:28]: "Congress could, could easily do that... these tests expand the costs of your unemployment statistics program because you're running essentially two systems simultaneously."

• Bill Beach [18:14]: "People will say, well, St. Peter probably influenced that number and it's not as bad as it really is... That suspicion... will be in the minds of some people."

• Joe Weisenthal [17:22]: "The BLS could use some upgrading... the new data is sort of provably backwards compatible with the old data."

Final Thoughts

This episode of "Odd Lots" serves as a crucial examination of how political actions can ripple through the fabric of economic data integrity. Bill Beach’s expert commentary provides a foundational understanding of the challenges faced by the BLS and offers a roadmap for restoring faith in one of the nation's key economic indicators.

For more insights and detailed discussions, visit Bloomberg Odd Lots.