Daniel Yergin on What Happened to the Energy Transition

Summary

Odd Lots Podcast Summary

Episode: Daniel Yergin on What Happened to the Energy Transition

Date: October 24, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway
Guest: Daniel Yergin (Pulitzer Prize-winning author of "The Prize", Vice Chairman of S&P Global, author of "The New Map")

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Overview

This episode tackles the current state and future of the global energy transition, challenging assumptions that a swift move to renewables is imminent or even feasible. Daniel Yergin, a preeminent energy historian and analyst, offers historical context, practical insights, and a sober assessment of why the much-heralded energy transition has, in his words, been more an "energy addition" than a true transition. The conversation covers energy security, policy realities, geopolitics, capital allocation, and the rising significance of old and new energy sectors amid technological and economic shifts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Persistent Energy Constraints Despite Technological Progress

• Hosts’ Framing: Despite living in a high-tech world (AI, data centers, robotics), providing abundant and affordable energy remains elusive.

  • “We seem to be living in this extremely high tech world…yet we still seem to be struggling somewhat to provide cheap and affordable and abundant energy to power all these things.” – Tracy Alloway (02:06)
  • Data centers and new tech demand are making energy even more strategically crucial.

• Yergin’s Take: Energy’s not a “solved” problem—never has been. Even with breakthroughs in renewables, global reliance on coal, oil, and natural gas endure.

  • “Energy demand is going up. Wind and solar, but also coal, oil and natural gas. And the share of hydrocarbons…has gone from about 81% to about 80.5%.” – Daniel Yergin (05:04)

2. From “Transition” to “Addition”: Why the Shift?

• The “energy transition” narrative is failing. Instead of replacing fossil fuels, renewables are being added alongside persistent hydrocarbon use.
  • “Energy transition has been energy addition.” – Daniel Yergin (06:07)
• The scale and speed of phasing out fossil fuels are vastly underestimated; transforming a $115 trillion world economy’s energy base is a monumental, slow process.

3. Tech Meets Energy: Cultural & Practical Clashes

• Tech culture demands rapid change; energy infrastructure moves slowly (multi-year build timelines).
• Rising power demand from tech (data centers, AI) draws new investment and renewed focus on reliable baseload sources, especially natural gas.
  • “What we have now is the tech world meeting the energy world…one of the reasons that we've seen…the easy…notion [of] energy transition pushed out is…it's going to take a lot more electricity…” – Daniel Yergin (06:51)

4. Supply Chain & Capital Market Realities

• Difference in funding: Oil and gas largely self-financed by industry; clean energy growth fueled substantially by tax credits, subsidies, public money.
• The cost improvements in solar/wind haven’t eliminated their dependence on government support.
  • “Everybody's rushing right now to get steel into the ground so they can get the tax credits, which will expire…” – Daniel Yergin (10:38)
• Grid challenges now front and center: Connecting renewables is expensive and slow, transmission is a critical bottleneck.
• Electricity prices in the US are rising faster than inflation; reliability concerns intensify.

5. Geopolitical Shifts: The Shale Revolution and LNG

• U.S. LNG Exports: Now the world’s largest LNG exporter; critical in blunting Russia’s energy leverage over Europe during the Ukraine conflict.

  • “Were it not for US LNG, Putin might well have succeeded using the energy weapon, cutting off gas to Europe and shattered the coalition supporting Ukraine.” – Daniel Yergin (16:23)
  • Yergin recounts being yelled at by Putin in 2013 over the potential of U.S. shale gas (17:41).

• China’s Stockpiling: China importing and stockpiling huge amounts of oil and minerals for unclear strategic reasons—possibly prepping for supply disruptions, possibly exploiting low prices.

  • “They stockpile minerals too. It's what they do. Is it because they think there may be a conflict…? We don't know.” – Daniel Yergin (22:10)

6. “Peak Oil?” Shale, Efficiency, and the Ongoing Debate

• Past oil panics almost always followed by new discoveries or technology; today, there’s talk of U.S. shale “plateauing,” but not declining yet.
  • “Maybe shale has peaked out. Peaked out at a very high number, but peaked out.” – Daniel Yergin (19:26)
  • Historical anecdotes: Post-WWI and WWII, 1970s, even 19th century all featured fear of “running out,” always disproven by innovation (21:00).

7. The Rise of Critical Minerals & Policy Shifts

• Rare earths and battery minerals now matter geopolitically, and China’s dominance in processing is causing alarm in the West.
  • “They process 90% of the rare earths and they know it. And…when you hear an automobile maker saying we have a week and a half of supply, you realize how urgent it is.” – Daniel Yergin (24:37)

8. Policy, Prices, and Political Volatility

• U.S. policy has swung from climate-first, renewable-focused (Biden) to a new embrace of fossil energy; current prices and political goals are sometimes at odds.
  • “It was all about…renewables, climate change…That was then, this is now when it's just pretty much in the opposite direction.” – Daniel Yergin (26:11)
• Maintaining both low prices and a vibrant domestic oil industry is tricky; recent low prices hurt U.S. shale enthusiasm and labor market sentiment.

9. European Industry in Crisis

• Germany and broader Europe face de-industrialization pressures due to high energy costs, regulatory overload, and ambitious climate targets.
  • “They impose these policies with no connection to the marketplace…If you say it, it's going to happen. So I think maybe in Germany we're starting to see some of that easing up. But…that regulatory straitjacket…tells people, go invest in the United States.” – Daniel Yergin (37:08)

10. ESG, Market Forces & Future of Energy Finance

• ESG (environmental, social, governance) investing has faded as costs and risks have reminded investors and corporations of hard realities.
  • “ESG clearly has faded away. I can't see it coming back with the full force that it did because it has a built in backlash which we're seeing now.” – Daniel Yergin (39:12)

11. Nuclear and Geothermal: New Hopes, Ongoing Challenges

• Nuclear, especially small modular reactors (SMRs), is making a comeback due to tech industry demand and climate goals—major tech companies are now investing.
  • “You have the sort of entrepreneurial Silicon Valley spirit now imbued into Nuclear…” – Daniel Yergin (41:04)
• Geothermal: Some optimism it could leverage shale drilling technology, but still uncertain (36:23).

12. The Unsolvable Energy Challenge

• There is no real “end” to energy’s centrality or its challenges. Periods of consensus are fleeting; energy security and adaptation are perpetual needs.
  • “Are we ever going to solve the energy problem?”
    “No, I think it will just, I mean it will always be there as long as industrial society will be one form or another.”
    – Tracy Alloway & Daniel Yergin (44:23)

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Notable Quotes / Memorable Moments

• On why the energy transition isn’t happening as envisioned:
  “You just can't overnight take $115 trillion world economy and change it from one thing to another.” — Daniel Yergin (06:24)

• On energy’s cyclical ‘memory loss’:
  “You get a consensus about energy and it lasts about three years and then something new comes along and just changes the view.” — Daniel Yergin (44:44)

• On subsidies and clean energy:
  “These industries are going to have to stand on their own right now.” — Daniel Yergin (12:08)

• On shale’s world-changing impact:
  "He [Putin] was actually prescient. He saw that shale gas in the form of then LNG would augment US influence in the world, which it certainly has…” — Daniel Yergin (18:05)

• On energy security’s lesson from Churchill:
  “In energy…safety lies in variety and variety alone. That you don't want to be over dependent on anything, want variety whether in terms of your suppliers, in terms of your sources.” — Daniel Yergin (45:51)

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Key Timestamps

• 02:06 — High-tech demand collides with persistent energy constraints
• 05:04 — Yergin: Hydrocarbons remain ~80% of energy supply; transition progress minimal
• 06:07 — “Energy transition has been energy addition” (Yergin)
• 10:38 — Renewables race for soon-to-sunset tax credits
• 11:55 — US electricity prices rising twice as fast as inflation
• 16:23 — US LNG exports change geopolitics; counter Russia
• 19:26 — Shale revolution, technological impact, and plateau talk
• 22:10 — China's stockpiling: strategic questions
• 24:37 — Rare earths and minerals: China’s dominance becomes a Western crisis
• 26:11 — US energy policy pendulum swings from renewables to dominance
• 29:55 — Oil/gas worker mood: mixed signals in the US
• 33:32 — Shale’s impact on global security—2019 Saudi attack fallout
• 34:48 — Industry cycles: surplus breeds neglect, which breeds next crisis
• 36:23 — Potential of geothermal, borrowing from shale tech
• 37:08 — European industry struggles under climate, regulatory, and energy costs
• 39:12 — ESG’s decline, necessity of market focus for clean energy
• 41:04 — Tech sector’s push into nuclear, SMRs, fusion investment
• 44:23 — “Will we ever solve the energy problem?” — Perpetual challenge
• 45:51 — Churchill’s lesson: “safety lies in variety and variety alone”

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Tone & Language

• Yergin is measured, historically grounded, blending wryness with gravity.
• Tracy and Joe balance curiosity, skepticism, and dry humor (“Are we ever going to bring whale oil back?”).
• The episode is candid about disappointments, careful not to indulge hype, yet open to the possibilities of innovation and cycles of surprise.

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Conclusion

Daniel Yergin lays out a bracing picture: energy “transition” has not replaced legacy fuels, but supplemented them. Clean technologies grow but are expensive, slow-moving, and hampered by challenging realities of grid integration, commodity security, and policy swings. The past era’s optimism about simple, cheap, rapid decarbonization has given way to renewed appreciation for energy’s foundational limits and geopolitical significance. The recurring lesson: energy systems are always in flux, rarely solved, and inherently cyclical—reminding us that security and practical diversity remain evergreen priorities.

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Transcript

[Joe Weisenthal]

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[Tracy Alloway]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

Podcasts Radio News.

[Tracy Alloway]

Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Wasenthal.

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe, you know what's weird?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Tell me, tell me what's weird.

[Tracy Alloway]

There's a lot that's weird actually, but we seem to be living in this extremely high tech world where you can get a chatbot to write you an essay or create a video.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I do that by the way.

[Tracy Alloway]

Oh sure, you could buy a robot dog to play with all that stuff. And yet we still seem to be struggling somewhat to provide cheap and affordable and abundant energy to power all these things. And in fact, because all this new technology guzzles so much energy, data centers use so much power, it feels like energy is becoming even more strategically important. In many ways.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It definitely feels like we're in an age of sort of people remembering the deep constraints that energy imposes. Whether it's data center, all kinds of things. Energy is not solved problem by any stretch. Although I would say that in my limited Sort of reading of the history of energy. It's never a solved problem.

[Tracy Alloway]

I know, I know.

[Joe Weisenthal]

At the moment we find we're in a period of energy surplus, we quickly find something to do with that energy. And once again, we are in a period of constraint. But it does feel like we're in some sort of period of constraint right now.

[Tracy Alloway]

When Keynes was doing his whole abundance theory, did he mention energy at all? What did he say? Well, I'm just going to assume that Cain's promised us all abundant energy as well as everything else, and it's not here, so we're all upset. Okay. So even though we've had all these breakthroughs in alternative energy technologies, you know, things like solar and wind, we're still using more coal, more oil than ever. And in fact, there's sort of some old school energy behaviors going on. With China stockpiling massive amounts of oil.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, as you said, coal is booming. China stockpiling oil, electricity prices in the US on the rise. Maybe perhaps due to some of this AI data center demand. It feels like, I would say pre Covid. At least. I don't know if people got a little bit naive or optimistic or Goldilocks, but there was this view, it's only a matter of time before energy is solved because we're going to have all this wind and solar. It's going to be cheap, it's going to be clean. We see all these cost curves coming down with batteries and wind and so forth. It's only a matter of time before we don't need the dirty stuff. And right now it doesn't feel like we're anywhere close to that. And I'm sort of curious what happened.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah, well, everyone talked about the energy transition, but so far it's not really a transition. It's like a compliment to existing sources. Anyway, we could keep talking, but why not go to our guest, who is the perfect guest. Truly, truly the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking with someone I wanted to speak with on the podcast for a very long time, Dan Jurgen. He is of course the author of the Pulitzer Prize winning the prize, the Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. He's also vice chairman of S and P Global and he also has a new book out called the New Map, Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations. So a lot to talk about. Dan, thank you so much for coming on Odd lots.

[Dan Jurgen]

It's great to be on with you all.

[Tracy Alloway]

So does it feel like energy insecurity is still with us in many forms?

[Dan Jurgen]

Yes. It goes through cycles you know, you mentioned Covid. I think during COVID demand went down, prices went down, and people kind of forgot about energy. And there was a sense in 2021, the International Energy Agency did this scenario about getting to basically a renewable world by 2050. But now we're in 2025 going into 26. Energy demand is going up. Wind and solar, but also coal, oil and natural gas. And the share of hydrocarbons and energy has gone from about 81% to about 80.5% roughly.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So it's going to take a while to get down to zero.

[Dan Jurgen]

Take a while. You mentioned energy transition. I think it's time to do some rethinking about the energy transition.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, good. That's what I was going to ask you about. So when people talk about the energy trans, this fantasy, or maybe fantasy is a little bit sneering scenario, scenario of okay, we're going to get to net zero, et cetera. Is this just a matter of the timeline has been pushed back or is there a fundamental flaw with the premise?

[Dan Jurgen]

I think certainly the timeline has been pushed back the notion by 2050. The closer we get to 2050, the farther away it seems. The goal of net zero by 2050's error and what Tracy said before, energy transition has been energy addition.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And what happened, what happened is I.

[Dan Jurgen]

Think the reality came back in that we live in a world that rests on an energy foundation and that you just can't overnight take $115 trillion world economy and change it from one thing to another.

[Tracy Alloway]

Are there any scenarios you could see where I guess new technologies like AI, the data centers that are getting built, encourage new players to come in and provide capital for energy. So Google building their own gas.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Exactly.

[Dan Jurgen]

What we have now is the tech world meeting the energy world. And these two worlds have very different cultures. Tech world, things go happen pretty fast. And you're a software engineer, come out with new software. In the energy world, an engineer takes seven years to build something. And these cultures have come together. And I think one of the reasons that we've seen kind of this, call it the easy or simple notions, energy transition pushed out is what you've mentioned. It's going to take a lot more electricity and some of that will come from wind and solar. But what's come back into the picture is natural gas is electric generation. If you wanted to go out and buy a gas turbine today, you could get it delivered in 2030. If we go back to 2022. I was talking to one of the big companies in the field and the guy said that year, all over the world, exactly one gas turbine was sold and it wasn't one of ours. So he said our market share that year was zero. Now they're all sold out.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Is there an increase in capacity? We talked about this recently and this has come up, the shortage of gas turbines. Is the scarcity being addressed or is there still this phenomenon where no one really wants to do the initial upfront investment in a, say, factory that makes the gas turbines? Because there's still uncertainty about, say, 2032 or 2033.

[Dan Jurgen]

When I talk to the companies, those who are around in about two, two and a half decades ago, remember there was a huge rush turbines, and then it all collapsed and they're worried about that.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And that was coincidentally or incidentally, that boom was also at a time of massive tech investment, the late 90s, which was another period of this sort of marriage of tech and energy at the time.

[Dan Jurgen]

Absolutely, that's right. And so I think they are expanding capacity, but they're not doing it helter skelter. Also, like so many other companies, there's a shortage of the talent that you need. I mean, these are not simple things to build.

[Tracy Alloway]

One of the reasons we wanted to talk to you is because you do such a fantastic job of connecting the oil space with capital markets. And I have always maintained that oil is very much a capital market story. Can you talk about the difference between how capital is sourced for something like oil or gas versus clean energy and whether attitudes towards the two have changed at all?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I mean, it was quite different with clean energy. And a lot of it, you know, had tax credits and ability to, you know, to sell tax credits and things like that. And a lot of the oil and gas development may be funded by financial institutions, but a lot of it is funded by the companies themselves.

[Joe Weisenthal]

What is it like? We see these lines on charts that show the collapsing price of solar production or the collapsing price of wind production, or the improvements in battery technology.

[Dan Jurgen]

All true.

[Joe Weisenthal]

All true. And yet there is still so much public money that goes into these areas and there's so many tax credits and subsidies, et cetera, to kind of accelerate them along. Why is it that you have these lines going down and yet they don't undercut traditional sources in the way that maybe the tech mindset.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, so. Well, first, remember, the renewables, wind and solar really were not competing with oil until you started to have electric cars coming onto the scene. But, you know, it was interesting. I was talking to a company that's developing a big battery project in Europe, I probably shouldn't say which country. And they're very excited about it. It's really big. They said, oh, by the way, they couldn't do it on their own. They had to go to the government and get incentive subsidies or a partnership with it. So the costs are still up there. And I think we're seeing a testing now for wind and solar. Everybody's rushing right now to get steel into the ground so they can get the tax credits, which will expire in not very long time. So the testing will be. How competitive will they be? And I think we'll still see wind and solar, and particularly solar being put in, but it won't be enough. And what they concern right now is about the reliability of the electric power system. And you see prognostications about this area that stretches from Illinois as far as New Jersey, that by the end of this decade, which is not so far away now, we'll be looking at very tight markets with really great pressure on it. And I'll tell you, the kind of regulators, the people looking at it are starting to get pretty alarmed. And that's why you see a lot of discussion and focus on can we get permitting reform so you can actually get something built?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Can you just what is the source of alarm? Is it about the generation of electrons or is it about the transmission and with the grid capacity to balance and take in all these things?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, it's both. And certainly the transmission is a very key part of it. But what we have been doing has been retiring coal plants. We thought we weren't going to have any more gas and electric generation, but that's coming back. And now you see kind of slowdown in closing these coal plants. And also we see an election coming up in New Jersey where electricity prices are an issue. And suddenly this whole issue, I was looking at our numbers, and electricity prices have been going up at twice the rate of inflation in the United States.

[Tracy Alloway]

Why can't clean energy seem to exist without subsidies? Given that electricity prices are going up and we all agree that energy is strategically important, why can't it fund itself?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, it has to. Ultimately, it has to be that. But obviously there's a lot of debate about what happened in this big beautiful bill where they basically are cutting back and then eliminating the subsidies. And at least this administration says, well, wait, these were put in 32 years ago for infant industries, and now the prices come down. Why are we doing it? So I think these industries are going to have to stand on their own right now.

[Tracy Alloway]

Would they be economical in their current.

[Dan Jurgen]

Form, I think, you know, it depends on the circumstances and where they're built and whether they have access to transmission. Because of course you can have solar, but then you need, you need it connected to the grid and grid connection becomes a very important issue.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's the expensive thing. That's why with my solar panels on my farm, I mooch off of the entire Connecticut system grid.

[Dan Jurgen]

How is your solar panels working?

[Tracy Alloway]

They're fantastic. Our energy bills are like maybe $20 a month. Sometimes we get paid.

[Dan Jurgen]

So you put electricity back in the system. You didn't get any tax credits or.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, the house had it when we bought it. But I'm just very happy with the low electricity bill and not having to shoulder the costs of the grid.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, and somebody else will take care of it.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's right.

[Dan Jurgen]

Somebody else's problem.

[Joe Weisenthal]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

I want to talk a little bit more about the return of natural gas, or lng. What do you think the prospects are for the US as an LNG export powerhouse? Can it continue to grow at the pace that it's been growing, especially given some of the bottlenecks and constraints?

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, well, obviously you need pipes to get gas to the Gulf coast or to Tidewater in order to ship the gas. And that ability to build pipes is really difficult or has been difficult. It's going to get easier now, unless you're in Texas, where you could build them anyway. But it's an amazing story. A decade ago, the US was not exporting any lng. In fact, now it's the world's largest exporter of lng. And our own numbers say that in the next half decade or so, global capacity will increase by over 50%. Half of that increase will be in the United States. And people don't think about it this way. But were it not for us, lng, Putin might well have succeeded using the energy weapon, cutting off gas to Europe and shattered the coalition supporting Ukraine. And what prevented him from doing that was uslng, which he hadn't counted on. In the book you mentioned the new map. I have this story about where I had this interaction with Putin in 2013, and it was at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which was his version of Davos. It was before he annexed Crimea. And he was up there on the platform with Chancellor Merkel, and you could see the ice between them. And they said to me, oh, you get to ask the first question. So I thought I was just asking.

[Tracy Alloway]

No pressure.

[Dan Jurgen]

The question. Yeah, exactly. No pressure. The normal question about, what are you going to do? Your budget is over dependent on oil and gas. By accident, I mentioned shale. And he started shouting at me in front of all these people and said, shale is barbaric. It's terrible. It'll poison people. He went on and on like that. And I can tell you it was very unpleasant being shouted at by Vladimir Putin in front of 3,000 people.

[Joe Weisenthal]

But it's a good story.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, but it's a good story. Exactly. At the time, I didn't think it was a good story. At the time I wanted to get out of there, but afterwards I thought he was actually prescient. He saw that shale gas in the form of then LNG would augment US influence in the world, which it certainly has, and it would compete with his jewel, his crown jewel, Gazprom, which has also happened because now Russian gas is being pushed out of Europe. So I think people don't speak of connecting the dots, that the shale gas revolution there tied into the ability to support Ukraine in this war that's now gone on almost as long as World War I.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It sounds like you're saying Aubrey McLendon was a great hero for the west and democracy and all of this stuff.

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I'd say a great entrepreneur, yes.

[Tracy Alloway]

When it comes to old school energy sources, whether it's oil or gas.

[Dan Jurgen]

I like your term, old school.

[Tracy Alloway]

Is there any low hanging fruit left in terms of making the technologies more efficient? I remember maybe like almost 10 years ago now there was a big standardization push and all these, you know, drills that used to have custom parts started to standardize them and that actually brought down prices quite a bit or helped ease some of the pressure at a time when oil prices were quite low. Is there anything like that on the horizon?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I think you're right. I mean shale, the development, the shale revolution is to kind of continue your memory. It really became a manufacturing process. It was a very repetitive manufacturing process. And no one back then when days of. You mentioned Aubrey McLennan, who's one of the pioneers, could have possibly envisioned the US being the world's largest oil producer, largest natural gas producer. I think right now about maybe 10% of the oil is recovered from shale. So one thing companies are working on, can we increase that output? Can we increase it? Be more efficient? But there is a sense of now, which it wasn't even had a year ago, that maybe shale has peaked out. Peaked out at a very high number, but peaked out. And people I start to see are starting to talk about what is known as exploration, going out and finding new oil sources in parts of the world where nobody really looked for them.

[Tracy Alloway]

Does it make you nervous to use the word peak in an oil conversation?

[Dan Jurgen]

Now that you mention it, it does. What should I say? Plateau. How's plateau? Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay, there we go.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah. Peak oil. I remember when people were talking about peak oil back in decade and a half ago and that the world was going to run out of oil. I remember I said I better go back and look in the prize. I Went back and said, oh, the world's actually run out of oil five times. And every time it's what you pointed before. It's new technologies and new geographies that change the game.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Tell us a little bit more about some of those times where. So I guess probably the 70s. When else have there been. Well, right at the end of people running out.

[Dan Jurgen]

World War I turned out to be a war that really sort of elevated oil because it started with people on horses and cavalry. It ended up with tanks and airplanes and trucks and all of that. And there was this great fear after World War I that the US had, what was it, nine years worth supply left. And so what happened is American companies started to go out and they went out to the Middle east and of course found lots of oil. So that was a period. Then after World War II, there was that period concerned because oil had been so important. There had been an oil war within the larger war. And then, of course, the 70s. But it even happened in the 19th century that people start ringing the bell saying it's all over and technology keeps expanding the frontier.

[Tracy Alloway]

So speaking of oil supplies and stockpiles, one of the big stories in energy markets has been China buying enormous amounts of oil and stockpiling them for reasons that we don't know for certain. How important has that dynamic been to, you know, a fairly resilient oil price? Crude has come down a little bit, but it's still, you know, around $60 a barrel, I think. And why are they doing it, in your opinion?

[Dan Jurgen]

That is always the question of why the Chinese stockpiling. I've been. We've been working on minerals too, and looking. They stockpile minerals too. It's what they do. Is it because they think there may be a conflict or is there a problem? Are they worried about the South China Sea, which I write about in the new map? And they know that During World War II, the U.S. cut off the oil line to Japan. And so they want to be sure they have supplies. Or is it just because it's cheap and they're expecting it to go up? We don't know. I'll be there in a couple months and I'll ask them again. I'm not sure I'll get an answer, but they're doing it. But the role of China has changed because for two decades, the growth in oil demand worldwide, half of it was in China. And now the view. I won't use the word peak, I'll use the word plateau. That demand in China is plateauing at a high level. But they're importing 75% of their oil and they don't want to continue to do that. That's why they've been pushing. One of the reasons they've been pushing electric cars. The other reason is because they see it as a way to an export market. So you don't have the growth engine of China. And so there's a fair amount of debate today at what rate at oil demand will grow, but how much will it grow? Will it be a million barrels a day? Million and a half barrels a day. And that is a subject within oil circles of a great deal of vigorous debate.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We obviously don't know what Xi Jinping's strategic plans are, potential military plans in the future. But for all of the EV adoption in China, which has of course been huge military conflict, whatever the source is still be an incredibly oil intensive process.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yes, I think exactly. I mean, that's right. You're not going to have battleships solar powered.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Not anytime soon.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, yeah. I mean you do mention. I mean what is. We know some things that are in Xi Jinping's mind because he said that and he does talk about the dominating the new industrial supply chains, which means EVs, which means solar panels, which means wind. And of increasingly critical importance, batteries, which is another issue that's going to actually is percolating up about here. We have regulations against batteries that come from foreign entities of concern. And you say what's a foreign entity of concern? And it tends to be mean parentheses China in the energy discussion.

[Tracy Alloway]

Could you ever envision a time where rare earths are more important strategically than oil?

[Dan Jurgen]

No, but I can tell you that they're really important. And I would say in the last six months there has been, if you're here in Washington, a crisis mentality about them. Because I think that was a shock when Trump was rolling out all of his tariffs and the country that they were going to be most aimed at, which was China. Suddenly China said well two can play this game. And then that is of course in recent days has once again come up the Chinese whether for strategic reasons, but again new supply chains. They process 90% of the rare earths and they know it. And when you hear an automobile maker saying we have a week and a half of supply, you realize how urgent it is. And so it's really come up. It's. And trying to grapple with it, it's not something you can solve overnight because it takes a long time to open a mine, put up a processing thing. And the Chinese have put not only Controls on rare earths. They put controls on the machinery and equipment for processing rarers and they put controls on the people who have the know how that they may not be able to have passports anymore.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let's talk about U.S. energy policy. It seems a little unfocused to me.

[Dan Jurgen]

Or we might say variable.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Okay, go on. How would you characterize it? Or when you say, all right, let's say it's variable, how would you characterize what's going on? I think there was U.S. energy security.

[Dan Jurgen]

Or energy policy under Biden. Of course, it was all about basically renewables, climate change, the goal that have no natural gas or coal and electric generation by 2035. Half the new cars in America were to be electric by 2030. That was then, this is now when it's just pretty much in the opposite direction.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Can the U.S. i think Trump would like powerful dominant U.S. energy industry.

[Dan Jurgen]

He uses that word.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah. Is that realistic? Can he get there? I mean, there's wanting to expand drilling, but with the price of oil, actually it's below 50, below 60 now. It's 5,875 today for like, can these things hang together? Can we have prices at these levels and a booming domestic oil industry?

[Dan Jurgen]

No, I think that's one reason we get into not the peaking, but the plateauing for that reason. And you know, you look at the survey from the Dallas Federal Reserve that came out and you know, below 60, people don't, you know, they just pull back and they husband capital and. But it certainly seemed that it was possible that we would see oil prices below 60 in the latter part of the year. And maybe it's come earlier than people might have expected and very much affected by the trade war between the US and China, among other things. But the US is the dominant player right now. And energy, the new trade deal that Europe's supposed to have with the US they're supposed to buy more natural gas from us and so forth. And they set up something called the National Energy Dominance Council Council, which is kind of the view of the US in this position. But it is tough to both want to have a very vibrant domestic industry and have low prices at the same time.

[Tracy Alloway]

I know you just mentioned that Europe is still going to be getting US oil, but do you foresee a more, I guess, autarkic energy future for the world? Because it does feel like at least with manufacturing goods and some strategically important goods, people are stockpiling and people are focused on building out their own capacity. Is that going to be the case in energy or will it be that energy is just so geographically specific and expertise oriented that not everyone can do it.

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, we've already seen a partitioning of the global oil market in terms of Russian oil not going to its natural market, Europe, but going to China, which was a market before, and India which was not a market before. We see that in natural gas. So I think call it economic nationalism or economic sovereignty, I think that the, in a sense that's what all the tariff policies are about. I think Europe is in a very difficult position because they would like to continue to pursue net zero, as it's called emissions by 2050. But now they have this other problem which is called being competitive, or rather not being competitive and losing industry. And on the other hand, they're now supposed to spend not 1.5% but 5% of GDP on defense. So I think Europe is in a very tough position.

[Tracy Alloway]

And I know you speak to a lot of experts in the energy industry, but what's your sense of the mood on the ground among I guess oil and gas workers specifically? Because on the one hand, Trump has been a friend of oil and gas and has said that he wants oil and gas to be dominant, but. But on the other hand, a lot of the policies that he's actually put in place, you see people in the Dallas Fed survey complaining about them and the mood seems to be kind of bad.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, well, I think it's both. I mean, I remember CEO of one oil company saying he was actually too surprised, was invited to, I don't know if he was joking or not to the Biden White House, but he said he had to go in through the basement door. And now of course they're very accepted and part of the dialogue. I think it's a mixed message. They were glad to see a reduction in all these new regulations that had been imposed and kind of just the general hostility to an important US Industry. But on the other hand, at low prices, you've seen layoffs in the industry. You see people putting down drilling rigs at this price. I think if they persist, we'll see more of a negative impact.

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[Joe Weisenthal]

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[Tracy Alloway]

US is producing massive amounts of oil and gas. How does this sort of change the geography or the energy industry?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, it really has changed it dramatically. It was really brought home in 2019 when the Iranians attacked the most important infrastructure in the entire world oil industry in Saudi Arabia. And the price went up for a day or two and then went down. And I think that's because of the existence of shale and just that it kept growing and growing and it gave a sense of security that wasn't there before.

[Tracy Alloway]

I totally forgot about that, but I think I was actually in the Middle east when that happened. Does OPEC matter anymore?

[Dan Jurgen]

Yes. Well, it's really OPEC that matters right now and they took a lot of oil off the market, basically giving room market share to the us. They're now begun the process of taking back their market share and that's partly what's reflected in price.

[Joe Weisenthal]

One of the things that is a constant theme on the podcast, and it comes up in numerous industries, whether we're talking about housing or lumber or anything else, is that periods of surplus or periods of slack, you end up paying for it at the end. You end up maybe paying for it five, 10 years down the road because you get this decline in production. The talent leaves the industry, the labor moves the industry, the parts rust, and you can't just take them out of the warehouse, et cetera, and start drilling or whatever. Again, when you look at the declining price of oil today, are we going to pay for this at some point?

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah. I think it's interesting because I had to write this new epilogue for the new edition, 30th edition of the Prize, and I was thinking about what are the lessons? And one of the lessons to me is among the hundreds of characters in the book, there are only two who really matter. One is supply and one is demand. And they're always fluctuating between the two of them. And I could see that today. Let me give you an example, because there's a natural decline that goes on in oil, which is people are now saying in gas, maybe it's 5% a year. So in 2021, you had the International Energy Agency come out with a scenario for net 0 by 2050 in terms of emissions. And all these steps to get there made it look rather easy because demand was down and price was down. They just came out with a new study saying the world needs $540 billion of investment every year between now and 2050 just to kind of stay where we are with oil. So it is that cycle that people forget. There's a whole decline there. And I think if you have a period of slack, you pay for it down the road in terms of a tight market, because investment leaves. And I think you made a really important point. People leave, too. They say, I don't want to be in this industry.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We did some episodes a couple years ago, actually, when oil was much higher. But one of the constraints would be, well, a bunch of the petroleum schools. They didn't have the same pipeline of engineering talent because in 2019, or whatever those years were, who was going into majoring in petroleum engineering.

[Dan Jurgen]

Exactly. And now it actually looks like it's a more attractive industry.

[Tracy Alloway]

But it's also, there's competition from geothermal as well. If you want to go drilling some rocks somewhere, you now have options.

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, actually, we didn't talk about geothermal, but in fact, There is now the notion, can you apply shale technology drilling to geothermal?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Are you optimistic about that?

[Dan Jurgen]

I don't go through optimism or pessimism. I just say, but it's promising. Let's see how it plays out.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I want to talk more about Europe. You mentioned the industrial economy is getting clobbered. Let's just talk about just Germany. Maybe they were able to substitute LNG imported from the US from some of its Russian sources. But the price is up and industrial production in Germany has been terrible. Do you think at some point European leaders will sort of cry uncle or cave on the net zero ambition? Because it feels like the politics of that have been running on fumes for years now.

[Dan Jurgen]

It's interesting because of course it's so entrenched that it's hard for them. I mean, you could say, okay, we're for net zero, but maybe not by 2050. But Europe continues to. It's not just energy costs. It's this incredible weight and burden of regulations that are designed without any connection to the markets. I was talking to one company on Sunday and they said they just closed one facility plant in Europe. They had another one that was 80% built that they've decided not to go ahead with talking to another company that's also closed. I mean, they impose these policies with no connection to the marketplace or to technology, saying 70% of jet fuel has to be so called sustainable aviation fuel. Well, it's less than 1% now. And so it's just, if you say it, it's going to happen. So I think maybe in Germany we're starting to see some of that easing up. But I think that those economic realities are weighing down with them and if they don't step back. And as I say, it's not just climate policies, but it's this whole regulatory straitjacket that tells people, go invest in the United States.

[Tracy Alloway]

I do feel like even before Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a sense that, I guess ESG in general was kind of failing. Inflation started to pick up. Yeah, well, inflation started to pick up and suddenly there was what I thought was an inevitable backlash against ESG and Target Net Zero and things like that. Do you think that ever comes back or how would you characterize, I guess, the helpfulness of ESG when it comes to building out clean energy?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I think it was clearly that all was a package together. I think now really the clean energy argument, the argument for solar now it's less about that and it's about that you can do it quickly and lay it down quickly. And get those electrons into the grid. So it's more about less.

[Tracy Alloway]

So the economics are kind of working.

[Dan Jurgen]

Economics rather than virtue. And ESG clearly has faded away. I can't see it coming back with the full force that it did because it has a built in backlash which we're seeing now. So I think it means that these things have to be more market, market driven.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Does the boom in LNG exports from the US raise prices for American households?

[Dan Jurgen]

That is of course a very critical question. And it was raised at the end of the Biden administration. We did a study on that, we being S and P and the Commodity Insight team there and concluded that we have a lot of natural gas so that it's not a threat in terms of prices. Natural gas is not as constrained as oil.

[Tracy Alloway]

What about nuclear? We've gone this entire conversation without talking about nuclear, but nuclear could solve all these problems.

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, and it's also interesting because that circles back to one of the points we talked about before because you say, well, what's brought nuclear back? Partly it's just time, partly it's need, but I think it's also the entry of the tech companies from being just consumers for software to really worrying about data centers. And you look at it, last time I looked there had been 6 billion of venture capital infusion. Nobody ever used to do venture capital infusion. That was what the government did because it was 50 years away. And we had an event at our Sarah conference in Houston this year where we had Commonwealth Fusion, which came out of mit, the head of the largest, the main utility in Virginia and the governor of Virginia saying we think we're going to have fusion here by 2032. So nuclear is definitely back. Small modular reactors are a hot topic. I think the first ones will be deployed around 2030.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So you think they're actually going to happen because this seems like another technology that's always five or ten years away.

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I think it's going to happen, but I think the test will be then can you bring down the cost and is it a more flexible way to add nuclear? But it is. I think it's really the tech companies who, I mean there you had Amazon investing in one of the SMR companies with the notion that they will then buy successive reactors with the idea that each one, the cost will come down. Now that will still be tested, it still has to go through a regulatory process at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and all of that. But there's certainly you have the sort of entrepreneurial Silicon Valley spirit now imbued into Nuclear, which of course is not an overnight thing, but it is back on the agenda. And I think history will go back and say in Germany, Chancellor Merkel, one of her two biggest mistakes was shutting down the nuclear basically in a weekend.

[Joe Weisenthal]

What was the other.

[Dan Jurgen]

And that was 25% of her electricity.

[Joe Weisenthal]

What was the other mistake?

[Dan Jurgen]

The other mistake was saying, immigration. The door is open.

[Tracy Alloway]

This might be a dumb question, but.

[Dan Jurgen]

If there's not such a dumb. There's not such a thing. I better watch out now.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay, but if Amazon or someone invests in a small nuclear reactor or. Or some other type of energy plant, how are those agreements actually structured in terms of the offtake? Because I assume they get priority. And then does whatever is left over get sent into the grid?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I guess it depends if it is a reactor that's owned by a utility. Or is it possible that these would be like merchant nuclear reactors? You have seen examples already where some of the. I guess we used to call them big tech, now we call them hyperscalers.

[Joe Weisenthal]

When did that happen? We just all started using that term anyway.

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah, exactly. I think it's about a year.

[Tracy Alloway]

Don't you think?

[Dan Jurgen]

Yeah. I mean, for the first time you had to think, what's a hyperscaler? Is it like an elephant? But it's hyperscaler. But where they've signed, where they will take the entire offtake of nuclear power plant. So these companies are very concerned about power because it's so electricity intensive. The other day there was a story saying that that the two data centers that Elon Musk is building in Memphis will use more electricity than all the households. This is a big issue for regulators. Going back to the question you raised before about who pays for this? How do these costs get disaggregated?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Right now you mentioned electricity costs having gone up faster than inflation. Right now, can we draw a line between these prices and the data center boom, or is this two things that happen to be happening at once? I've seen different views on how directly data centers right now are contributing.

[Dan Jurgen]

I think it's part of it, but it's just the general increase of demand, including EVs, although not on the scale that had been envisioned. So all those things and just having. I mean, we had gone for 25 years with flat demand in electricity in the United States, then. Now it's just recently that it started to grow again. And so you have a whole generation of utilities who've grown up in flat demand and now figuring, how do you get things built? How do you get through the regulatory process and even when you get it approved then you end up in court because somebody challenges it.

[Tracy Alloway]

Are we ever going to solve the energy problem?

[Dan Jurgen]

No, I think it will just, I mean it will always be there as long as industrial society will be one form or another. Maybe fusion, the dream of.

[Tracy Alloway]

Ah, fusion, yes. I used to play SimCity and that was always the ultimate goal. You work up from the gas plant to nuclear and then to fusion.

[Dan Jurgen]

Fusion solves everything. But it's also striking to me what I've noticed having studied energy for some time, that you get a consensus about energy and it lasts about three years and then something new comes along and just changes the view.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Are there any past periods? We talked a little bit about the late 90s when there was the gas boom then. Are there any other past periods that people should study right now that might help inform the current environment?

[Dan Jurgen]

Well, I think that what we have to remember, which to me is absolutely critical is energy security and that it gets forgotten. And for me I have this story in the prize about Winston Churchill converting the Royal Navy from coal to oil before the first World War, which to me is that is what made oil a strategic commodity, that transition.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Why did he do that?

[Dan Jurgen]

He did it because he gained speed, flexibility. You didn't need to have all these guys shoveling coal on board and you gain 30% extra cargo space.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's the very start of the book, right? That's the opening anecdote.

[Dan Jurgen]

Exactly. And I always thought that phrase he said safety in oil, but we could say in energy lies in variety and variety alone. That you don't want to be over dependent on anything, want variety whether in terms of your suppliers, in terms of your sources.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We ever going to bring whale oil back?

[Dan Jurgen]

You know I said there's not a single energy source that has not increased. Even wood has increased. The only one that hasn't increased is whale oil. All right.

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe can dream I guess. Dan Jurgen, author of the probably, I'm pretty sure the best book on the oil market ever. Thank you so much much for coming on odd lots.

[Dan Jurgen]

Thank you. It's great.

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe, that was so much fun. I'm so glad we finally got together.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I can't believe it took us that long to talk to Dan. But that was great.

[Tracy Alloway]

I know. Well, fortuitous meeting in Washington D.C. i gotta say his point about the sort of interconnection between energy and technology, definitely it does seem to be a driving force. Right. And as soon as you get new advancements in weaponry or transport or in this case software you do tend to get a sudden rethinking of what your energy needs actually are or some sort of transition.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And then on the flip side, if you ever are in an era of energy surplus us, you're going to find something to do with it, right? Like, you never just sit around and it's like, here's a bunch of cheap energy, let's not do anything with it.

[Tracy Alloway]

Although China is stockpiling successfully, right?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, they are stockpiling. We don't know for what exactly.

[Tracy Alloway]

But yes, they haven't spent it yet.

[Joe Weisenthal]

They haven't spent it yet. Although they're spending, I guess, in a sense to acquire all the oil. It does feel to me, and it's not like this is that new, but there was a phase in probably the US and Europe in the late 2000 and tens and maybe it extended through 2020. Magical thinking with respect to energy being solved, that there is just this clear path towards cheap, clean, abundant energy. And some sort of reality has clearly smacked a lot of policymakers in the face. And I guess the question is how locked into current plans are they, what has to give? But it does feel like in Europe specifically, the constraints when it comes to industry, energy, climate security are pretty real.

[Tracy Alloway]

It seems to me like the big problem is the cyclicality of the industry. Like you're constantly going through booms and busts and as soon as you get a boom in oil production, it inevitably leads to a collapse in oil prices and then you struggle to build out capacity for years and years and then there's not enough oil and then prices start to rise and everyone goes back in again. If we could find some way to moderate that, I don't know how you would do it, but that might be a way forward.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I feel like an underrated element of the Chinese economic story over the last however many decades has just been this like sustained boom without major downturn, et cetera. And so then you don't get these like big periods of people leaving an industry or whatever that are really hard to escape out of. It's like I sort of think the cure for the boom bust cycle is just perpetual boom. Like, that's the answer. Just always be booming, always be booming, always be booming.

[Tracy Alloway]

I like that. But I also have to say China as a source of energy demand, you know, they're buying for stockpiles right now, but they're using so many electric vehicles that their gas consumption is actually going down. Gasoline.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It's very impressive.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right, shall we leave it there?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let's leave it there.

[Tracy Alloway]

This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at thestalworks. Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman, Armand dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kalebrooks at Kalebrooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about all of these topics 24. Seven in our Discord, Discord, GG Oddlots.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about the future landscape of the energy industry, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

[Dan Jurgen]

SA.

[Tracy Alloway]

There are two kinds of people in the world.

[Dan Jurgen]

People who think about climate change and.

[Tracy Alloway]

People who are doing something about it. On the Zero podcast we talk to both kinds of people. People you've heard of, like Bill Gates.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I'm looking at what the world has.

[Dan Jurgen]

To do to get to zero, not.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Using climate as a moral crusade and.

[Tracy Alloway]

The creative minds you haven't heard of yet.

[Dan Jurgen]

It is serious stuff, but never doom and gloom.

[Tracy Alloway]

I am Akshat Ratty.

[Dan Jurgen]

Listen to Zero every Thursday from Bloomberg Podcasts on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else.

[Tracy Alloway]

You get your podcasts.