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- [00:00]
Tracy Alloway
Oddlauts is brought to you by Vaneck. For years investors basically forgot about real assets, energy, gold and infrastructure. But look at what's driving markets now. Central banks loading up on gold, massive capex cycles, currencies doing weird things. These assets are at the center of it. Racs the VanEck Real Assets ETF is an actively managed one stop shop for real assets spanning gold, commodities, natural resource equities and more. Go to vaneck.com raaxpod to learn more Fun disclosures later in this episode you need to make a huge presentation in an hour. Adobe Acrobat uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click. Build slides quickly and streamline the process. Need a last minute pitch deck? Do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design. Do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that, do that, do that with Acrobat. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat Amazon
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Commercial Announcer
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Joe Weisenthal
see my co worker in line at the pharmacy. Can he tell I'm picking up prescription hemorrhoid cream? I'm probably standing weird. Why is he smiling? He knows he's going to call me Hemorrhoid Lloyd tomorrow.
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Tracy Alloway
Know it.
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Joe Weisenthal
I gotta quit my job.
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Commercial Announcer
Next time, avoid awkward conversations and get fast free delivery with Amazon Pharmacy. Healthcare just got less painful.
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Tracy Alloway
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
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Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Joe Weisenthal.
- [01:59]
Tracy Alloway
Jo Our live show in London, recorded May 7th at Wilton's Music Hall. A lot has happened since then in markets. It's hard to have a markets conversation that, you know, isn't out of date within like a minute or two. Yeah, but, but I think this one, this one carries on. I think this one is still relevant.
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Joe Weisenthal
Well, you know, I have to say I always feel a little anxious about recording markets episodes because of this very phenomenon. But this is true for our live and our recorded shows that by the time it comes out, who knows how much all have changed.
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Tracy Alloway
This is why you should go to the live show.
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Joe Weisenthal
That's exactly where I was going to go. It's actually good to record markets episodes of the live show because then it's like, all right, you create an inducement to get people to buy a ticket. But again, you know, with a lot of these things, like how traders are digesting this particular moment in time, sure the headlines and the prices on the screen change. But There are certain, like principles and frameworks for understanding what's going on that will be sort of useful regardless of what's happening.
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Tracy Alloway
In the meantime, you mentioned frameworks and that is the perfect framing for this discussion. So we indeed had the perfect guest. We spoke to someone who's been on quite a few times before, one of our favorites for letting us know what the big money is actually thinking about and trading. We spoke with Ozan Tarman. He is of course vice chair of global macro over at Deutsche Bank. We also spoke to his colleague Sam, someone who hasn't been on the show before, but who has quite a reputation. One of Deutsche Bank's star bond traders, a ditches single. He is the head of EM trading across rates FX and credit at Deutsche Bank. So take a listen. Okay, let's start with the obvious question lines on the chart. Keep going up. Despite what would seem to be some challenges to the global economy, to put it mildly. Why?
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Ozan Tarman
First of all, even when I walked in, I was checking with you guys. It wasn't like that 15 minutes ago
- [03:46]
Joe Weisenthal
when we're now recording this at 7:33,
- [03:49]
Ozan Tarman
exactly 20 seconds when one agency claimed that Operation Freedom was back on, that President Trump could try to open the Hormuz by force. SNP didn't like that at all. Oil was surging higher then, Al Jazeeria denied. So we're all calmer again. But bottom line is why we keep going higher despite everything that Javier and Lorcan said is because buses are empty. When I say buses are empty, I don't only talk to my portfolio managers, but men on the street. To my college classmates, one of them was like, what do you mean buses are empty? That means investors don't have it. The analogy is a bit like closer to April 2, April 9 of last year when we had the big tariff shock billboard up. We thought that it would be the end of the year, end of the markets. Then President Trump stepped back and markets never looked back. A bit similar Coincidence or not, March 31 is the first time he claimed through Wall Street Journal that he would separate state of hormones and the operation, that the two could go separately. None of that happened. But that was the first big brief market took. And on April 9, exactly on the same day, the big first postponement came. He said, we're not going to do anything for two weeks. And since then, markets never looked back. A historic led by tech, NASDAQ and S& P rally. And you know, I talk to a lot of people, a lot of, you know, key ladies, guys Honestly, maybe three, four, five people really believed in this rally since April. April 1, April 9. That's one big part of it. But it can't be all positioning. Also fundamentals, right. Earnings.
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Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
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Ozan Tarman
Again, head of sales, one of my legendary researchers, Jim Reed, just today he was on Bloomberg as well talking about earnings in Q4 of last year, just 13% growth, Q1 record, biggest in five years, led by tech, 24%. That engine keeps us keep stuff going.
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Joe Weisenthal
Yeah. The earnings are what they are. So here's something I'm curious. So Ozan came in and he gave us the latest headlines. Thank you. Because I haven't, I hadn't been looking
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Ozan Tarman
out on my job.
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Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, exactly.
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Tracy Alloway
He didn't look at his phone for 15 minutes, which might be a record.
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Joe Weisenthal
It's a record. How do traders deal with the market in which they're just the sheer number of headlines. How would you. And how do they know what to take seriously? And like, yeah, what's real? What's not real? Like how are they ingesting news?
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Aditya
So from a trading perspective, mostly, almost everybody, fundamentally five asset classes. Right. So you have a thematic view and you have race effects, credit equities and commodities. And a lot of people are fixated or are mandated or asset class or say. Right. So they have no choice but to stick within that kind of regime. And then of course are you, if you're a real money investor or a hedge fund or if you are a sell side trader just depending on how you are positioned. Right. It's not really, it's difficult to get in and out. Right. So thematically you have to take a structure long term. You see what every asset class is pricing on that particular view and define an upside downside kind of scenario. And based on the liability profile you have and that how you define that is the function of the money you have or what kind of drawdowns are acceptable. You take a particular position and you let it play out. So in this kind of environment it's difficult. So what is the upcoming kind of positive news that you can rely on to the market today? If you were to sit here today, you say, okay, so the fact that not much action has happened in the last three to four weeks within the strait means that at some point or the other the resolution will come. Pakistan is mediating, as we can see. There's been enough talks happening. So you assume that a resolution should come. That's what the market is pricing, theoretically. You also have a situation with Russia which is developing. Right. Russia, Ukraine, war, which could be Positive. And then you have the visit, the US visit to China, which also is there. Positive. Now of course there's a lot of it is at the price per se. But fundamentally speaking as a trader, you position yourself and then you just choose at some point to close it to the time but get out.
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Joe Weisenthal
But just like, just. And that all makes sense to me. But like are traders sitting there with a truth social window open? Like the literal ingestion of news? How do you do it and how do you.
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Ozan Tarman
Just getting the messages from me.
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Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, right. Just getting it.
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Tracy Alloway
Well, someone needs to make like a motivational poster that says lord give me the confidence of an equity investor trading on an Axios headline. Yeah, like I feel like that would, that would sell.
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Aditya
So yes, we have one open. Yeah, but seriously, genuinely we, we have no choice. But fundamentally it's like this, right. So you make a, you see what's. So we had. If you were to look at the rates market, for example, just as an example, right. There was a Six Sigma event that happened within it. At some point the pricing gets to a level where it doesn't make any rational sense. So you start to look at that on a more structural basis and you start to ignore the noise in the middle. And whether we like it or not, we have to operate with that kind of philosophy. So you take one side or the other. It's very difficult to trade the headline because it's impossible because as of now you had two conflicting headlines and you can get caught out. So most people have come to that understanding. So you've taken a perspective or review that either this is going to get resolved or you can believe it's not going to get resolved. There's a way of expressing it within the five asset classes where you might get the most convexity. Similarly, if it gets resolved, there are certain things that actually might work which haven't yet worked. So you take those sides and you just sit and wait.
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Tracy Alloway
You mentioned irrationality just then, which means we should talk about AI. Right. Because all of the stock market rally at this point essentially seems to be a bet on AI. What are you hearing from your clients, Ozan, on how comfortable they feel with this?
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Ozan Tarman
Well, just two days before the Iran war began, we were in West Palm beach and Miami with adichie as well, visiting clients and then the whole talk of at least that town, but the US in general was that famous Trinity piece. The other 50 million stampis. Something big is about to happen. How in 12 to 18 months 50% of white collar jobs could be wiped out. What that could mean for rates, that in itself is very, very telling. Right. And because of that and one SOL claims number if you remember us, 10 years that Friday before the bonds came in closed at 393. And one of my more famous friends clients sends me a message on that Friday night bond is the new gold 393top tick close. Then Iran war happens. Not that surprising. But of course how it played out is very, very surprising. Warflation, hikes, getting priced in. So people completely pushed aside the slowdown, job growth, labor part of it and then started completely focusing on the equity, the growth, the AI engine again. If you just go back to January, February, we were quote unquote happy because the thing was broadening out. It was a rally, but it was a rally led by Russell as well. Would it be Magnificent four seems like a long time ago Magnificent seven was forgotten and now, Lord behold some of us, thank God have three month memories. Now we're complaining about oh it's all about seven stocks. The brave is we're just fighting ways to try to fight and wrestle away the rally. But so back to your question at the moment, yeah, the Kool Aid is to believe that this AI run may have another one to two years to go. Paul Tudor Jones public One of definitely my more famous France lines today claimed that that that's the case and made the 1999 analogy. So either you swim with that or try to fade it.
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Joe Weisenthal
This is the other thing. All right, so we talk about these very worrisome scenarios, the price surge in oil, but very worrisome scenarios about deep shortages in various commodities. So that's one reason to be worried. But then there's this other thing that basically the disinflation is stalled out if arguably it's going in the other direction. Rates around the world, I think there was some sort of what was UK
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Tracy Alloway
30 year the highest since 1998.
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Joe Weisenthal
Yeah. So again just intuitively you would think these things compound each other and should really take the wind out of the sails of risk appetite. And yet so how is it that even what we see going on in selling of how does the selling and sovereign bonds mix into this market in vervue.
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Aditya
So let me take this to actually give you a thematic kind of how to think about things. Right. So just to give a perspective. Right. So ultimately there is only one thematic view that matters for the next few years, right. And that is if you would assume you have China and China aligned countries and you have the West. Right. If you were to take China and China aligned countries, right? And they were in space. What does west need theoretically in both manufacturing and services? And if you were to reverse the rules and if the west was in space, what does China and China aligned countries need both in manufacturing and services? The reason I'm bringing to this point is because I want to give a perspective. So what happened in the last many years? So this microphone for example, most of the material in here comes from China or China aligned countries. Almost 90% manufacturing capacity of the world is 55% China China linked. But some places almost 90 to 95%. Take an example of cobalt, cobalt refining oil in China. Now in the past what happened was they would give you this microphone and you would give them dollars or pounds or euros or whatever it is. So they hold that. So China holds that. What is the most rational thing for them to do, the most rational thing for them to do was to buy your land with that money. But you said no. Then they said I'll buy your equities. You said no to that too. Then they said what? You know what? I'm going to buy the commodities that you might need in the future. We said fine, do it. Which is what China did for years. Then here's the interesting thing you said in return. Let me sell you my services. So let me sell you fine wine. Let me send you the Gucci more phenomenal bags.
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Joe Weisenthal
How is your educational service?
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Aditya
Top tier education? Education and a lot of other things. And then also services, services, whether it's Microsoft Excel or whatever it is. Right. But now what's happening is you have that side of the world which is also building their own services stack. So tourism is now onshore. They started building their own cars up the value chain. So you're getting to a stage where if you expand this thematic view, you in the west have to literally build all of it from ground up. So if you assume China was in space, they can still disrupt the services sector, but they can't disrupt the manufacturing sector theoretically anymore because you can, you will have to build it all up. So if you want cobalt and if they say no, you have to refine it, mine it, refine it. You need to have companies that refine it, you need to have the engineers that do that work. And fundamentally that's what the fundamental paradigm of the world is. So when you talk about sovereign debt or any holding of, or any equity holding, ultimately the creditor is China and China, alliant countries. They are the creditor to the west and we are the debtor. And this is only increasing. So if you believe the visit, what is the ultimate objective agenda of the visit of the US to China is to balance the current account to some extent. That's one agenda and there's of course there are certain other aspects to it, but fundamentally that's what defines the kind of makeshift of the next kind of year, two, three years. And whether we like it or not, we have to build this.
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Tracy Alloway
Data centers need electricity, AI needs copper, reshoring needs steel, and gold's run may tell you something about how the world is repricing money and debt. All of those point back to real assets. The RACS ETF is an actively managed one Stop real assets shop from gold to commodities to natural resource equities, adjusting as conditions change. Visit vaneck.com raaxpod to learn more. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus which contain this and other information, visit vaneck.com Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing. RACS is distributed by Vaneck Securities Corporation Distributor Every business has an ambition. PayPal open is the platform designed to help you grow into yours with access to business loans so you can expand and hundreds of millions of PayPal customers worldwide. Your customers can pay all the ways they want today with PayPal, Venmo, pay later and all major cards so you can focus on the future when you need a partner trusted by millions. There's one platform for all business PayPal Open grow today at paypalopen.com loans subject to approval in available locations.
- [17:16]
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- [17:46]
Tracy Alloway
I want to come back to China versus the US on AI in just a second. But I definitely want to also ask this question because we are in London. How big a deal are the UK elections from your respective perches, the local elections that are happening tonight.
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Ozan Tarman
It is important because basically UK and abroad there is for the past two years at least a big fight between fiscal dominance beliefs. 10 years, 30 years, more importantly 30 years around the world. Will they get more out of control? Since we are in London, will we have the dear Liz Truss two moment or will financial repression mean meaning emerging market style? Treasury and central banks working more closely together, especially on issuance, issuing less on the long end, more on the short end. Taking a risk but making sure that 10 and 30 years are under the leash. In fact a very key investor last summer asked in a smaller roundtable what happens if all four of them this was probably August before back to school, September races began. Us, France, Japan and uk if all of them had their trust moments and then September came in. I remember us talking about this. Yes, it happened but only four hours in the guilt market and that was it.
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Joe Weisenthal
I remember that little mini moment.
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Ozan Tarman
So now there's an excitement again because UK has a different risk premium net international investment portfolio that is has a budget deficit and the current account deficit has to be nice to the foreigners because they will buy your debt. There are question marks on what this local election may mean for the government. Will there be a change there or in the Chancellor? Will somebody more to the left come in? All these are under question mark. Famous last words. My feel is for the moment still this financial repression will win. We won't have the trust moment two but obviously we they will need a little bit of luck for the Iran situation to continue to calm down. Because unlike the trust moment Trust moment one now all of this is happening for reasons much beyond the uk.
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Tracy Alloway
Joe, I am impressed that we always manage to schedule these macro conversations for maximum event risk between when we record and when it actually publishes. So we have the UK elections, everything happening with Iran and we have non farm payrolls tomorrow.
- [20:15]
Joe Weisenthal
There's so much going on and we just apologize in advance. This is why people should buy tickets to the event. Because if you have to hear this conversation on the podcast feed, who knows, it could be out of date. But those who are here don't have that issue is emification of Western policymaking, Is that an apt characterization of it? Setting aside specific elections here or there, you hear that term amification of and is that apt?
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Aditya
It depends. Right, so it's country to country in this again paradigm you have. So let's take UK as an example. Let's elaborate further. Real rates are reasonably high. The country's gone through a difficult situation courtesy what happened with oil, the pass through effect. But it's happening pretty much everywhere else in the world. You have current account, which matters mostly in most EM countries, including uk. You have an input factor of energy and you have an output factor of services effectively that you said. So depending on where you are in the world, which country depending on who you are. If you have a situation where you're an energy importer and your exports are highly dependent on effective services which are getting disrupted courtesy AI, you're in trouble alongside. If you are an importer of manufacturing also or goods, again, you're in trouble. So this adjustment will happen. So you have to have allies, you have to have people who you do a quid pro quo with and that adjustment is what we are seeing effectively. And markets are finding a true balance of risk premium alongside.
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Joe Weisenthal
Well, okay, so on this point, two things you've said which sound very rational on stage, having a series of allies, I don't know if those are stable. And then also this aspiration to balance the current account between the US and China. It sounds nice, but like, do you think, like, are there actually any real prospects of moving the dial on that kind of thing?
- [22:20]
Aditya
So again, I don't want to comment here. This is in terms of our house view, but in general. But I'll give you a general perspective on the same example. If you were to get west in space and ask China what does it need from the West. Yeah, it's not much. Yeah, I've heard, apart from Boeing and Airbus spare parts. If you were to just look at it from that perspective, so. So there is a desire and maybe there is, they will oblige. I do think there is certain things, like for example agricultural products that could benefit. There are certain aspects, but fundamentally, unless we choose within the west to build the whole manufacturing stack, it's going to be very difficult to keep this current account balanced and on top of it. The biggest worry, and again I may be jumping on this point, is when people talk about the AI stack that the west is investing in and the capex stack that the west is investing in, the key is not what the west is doing. The key is to understand what China is doing in it, understand what they are doing. With the deep Sea version 4 models, the GLM5, the Huawei clusters, I can go on with an optical compute, there are quantum computing. There are many more things that they're actually investing a lot in, which effectively becomes a true competition and a cost factor reduction. If there is a risk, that is the risk to watch out for. It's not to study what we are doing here because we will find ways to keep evolving but you have an ecosystem there which is actually quite well versed and also has a lot of capital behind it. There was somebody who was quoted, most of the engineers today actually are that part of the world.
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Ozan Tarman
Another thing that the market miscalculated right after Trump got elected the second time. December 24, January 25. By far the big consensus trade besides the US 10 years going to 550, everybody being $long was to buy these $cnh options. Strikes at 775.
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Joe Weisenthal
Everyone I knew was buying $cnh options.
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Ozan Tarman
There you go.
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Joe Weisenthal
Keep going. Yeah, yeah.
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Ozan Tarman
And what happened? The star currency is the other way around, cnh. So that shows you, even though some people are really into saying markets are never wrong, you're wrong. That can be very, very wrong itself. So we are all human being that can make markets very wrong itself. One more Asian country that we need to talk about to bring it right to the market, Japan. Right. So to your question, higher oil, higher rates, why doesn't this thing bring down equities? Why are these no, why is this guy Ozone sending messages, bus is empty, nobody's buying it. It can be quite frustrating, right? Last Thursday, Friday, it almost happened because you know, it just feels itchy. $yen looked like it would break 160. It looked like US rates would continue to sell off. Hulmuz again, question mark. There wasn't that hunt. And then just like the rate checkoff at the beginning of the year, one of my closest friends, not on our trading floor, but on the sector, I had heard this big Irish voice, you know, this is New York calling on behalf of bank of Japan. I'm like, what's going on with this guy? And because he was shouting around because they want to make sure that in a public information they told those three banks that they called would let others know that they were watching. Similar this time around, Fed didn't call. Bank of Japan itself came and they punted for risk parity. What does that mean? They punted for lower volatility, calmer waters and stable rates. The moment they pushed down dollar yen, lower yen stronger US rates calmed down, equities got a bit, et cetera, et cetera. So it's always Otago war. On one side, risk parity camp. Mostly central banks trying to keep things calm. And on the other side, sometimes my dear fast money friends Looking for more 20, 22 like years Christmas come early every Friday, another 50 basis points sell off on TY US 10 year higher volatility, et cetera, et cetera. And US stay in the middle and try to decide which one is right.
- [26:20]
Tracy Alloway
Can't you just tell your fast money friends to calm down for a little bit?
- [26:23]
Ozan Tarman
I do, I do. They usually listen to me.
- [26:25]
Tracy Alloway
Aditya, I want to go back to what you were saying about US versus Chinese AI models because if we think about how much the stock market rally is actually dependent on AI at the moment and how much of the AI story is dependent on this idea that well, the west has these amazing, more sophisticated, albeit more expensive models for which the TAM is basically the entire world. And you're arguing that actually that's not the case and China's models are perfectly suited for its own needs. Elaborate on that. How are you as a sort of trader evaluating these models? How much of your day basically is now just trying to figure out AI?
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Aditya
It's a very, very good question. And the key here is to understand what are you. So currently there is a very strong narrative. Yes, also a very strong use case. Now the valuation stack versus a forward earnings kind of multiple, if you were to look at it, says that there is going to be a huge CapEx investment within the Western stack for the next three or four years. And that's what's created this rally within various companies. And the second order effect companies, China is doing something similar. It's very clearly said in the west that they are effectively using Nvidia chips. And Nvidia is just a company, just to give an example, but just their chips to train the models in reality now they have Huawei chips which are pretty much parallel or comparable to H100 processors. The big problem that the west is not appreciating is that the reason west is investing so much in capex is because they want to effectively get to superhuman intelligence very quickly. So almost everybody's saying, okay, you have a model that has 7 trillion parameters. Now we go to 15, maybe at 2550 and it becomes self learning and it's reinforcement. But the reality is you have things like distributed AI. You have things which is actually being worked on in the West. You have also things which are very different, which is something as simple as quantum computing or I would say optical GPUs. Right, is another concept. Please read about it. So you have, currently there was a, there was a narrative in the west where you had GPUs of Nvidia and you had a copper connector between them. Now you have optical computer phones or optical phones effectively that have been very well in the last many kind of months. So this narrative will remain right. Having said that, if you keep an eye on what's going on on the other side of the world. Also use case in terms of actual uptick of usage, because it's not like I'm going to run five different AI models together. I'm going to probably converge to one at some point, will eventually cause some kind of a problem in the future. The second thing that you have to keep an eye on is also robotics. That's the other aspect which is going to be the second narrative that is actually going to start within the Western stack, which is the Elon Musk revolution of Optimus. And again, something to keep an eye on what's happening in China within it versus what's happening in west and how deficient is west on it.
- [29:20]
Joe Weisenthal
You talk about, okay, this microphone that we're talking to, almost certainly the majority of it or all of it probably made in China. How much do you see clients or people that you talk to purchasing Chinese financial assets, including Chinese government bonds, which more and more people are talking about not just a safe haven, but a safe haven that's done well and a diversifier. And how much is that becoming a meaningful part of portfolio construction?
- [29:46]
Ozan Tarman
It can grow. I mean, already it's happening with fx. But people first denial, then anger, then acknowledgement, right? They realize that the FX train has moved to your question. Government bonds, Chinese assets. Just two, three years ago, even when I went to Singapore's and Hong Kongs of the world, people were either fearing, claiming, being very confident that China was uninvestable.
- [30:12]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, I remember.
- [30:12]
Ozan Tarman
And deep inside I was saying, if China is uninvestable, you know, your future in Singapore and Hong Kong, I turned out to be correct. Right? But it turns out it starts with fx. But there is still a lot more room to go in Chinese equities and Chinese bonds. That bus is also not full.
- [30:27]
Joe Weisenthal
Okay.
- [30:29]
Tracy Alloway
All right. Lots of empty buses around Ozan and Adita. Thank you so much for coming on Opals. Really appreciate it.
- [30:34]
Aditya
Thanks for watching it.
- [30:49]
Tracy Alloway
That was our conversation recorded live in London on May 7. Shall we leave it there?
- [30:53]
Joe Weisenthal
Let's leave it there.
- [30:54]
Tracy Alloway
This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
- [30:59]
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmenarmon. Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks, Al Brooks and Kevin Lozano. Evanloydlozano. And for more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about all these topics 24. 7 in our Discord, Discord, GG, Oddlots
- [31:23]
Tracy Alloway
and if you enjoy odd lots. If you like it when we do these live shows and want us to come to a city near you, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening SA.
- [32:15]
Commercial Announcer
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- [32:44]
Joe Weisenthal
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- [32:49]
Aditya
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- [32:51]
Joe Weisenthal
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