The Iran War’s Lasting Scars Across Asia

Summary

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Odd Lots: "The Iran War’s Lasting Scars Across Asia"

Hosts: Joe Weisenthal, Tracey Alloway
Date: June 16, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Odd Lots, hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracey Alloway, examines the profound and lingering economic impacts of the recent Iran War and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, especially across Asia. Despite a new US-Iran peace deal to reopen the vital shipping lane, the hosts highlight that the structural disruptions and economic “war tax” levied during the conflict continue to shape trade, supply chains, inflation—and the future strategies of Asian economies.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The “Choke Point Economy” and Supply Shocks

• Recent geopolitical events, from pandemic to war, have ingrained the need for resilience and redundancy in supply chains.
• Tracey Alloway (02:18):
  “The lesson that everyone's been internalizing is that you need to build up stockpiles. You need to have independence in terms of your crucial supplies. You need to have additional capacity.”
• Asia’s acute vulnerabilities were exposed, as the Strait of Hormuz’ closure cut off a fifth of global oil, spiking prices and causing commodity shortages.

2. A Relief Rally—But Lasting Scars

• The US-Iran interim deal relieved oil prices and markets, but Asian economies remain skeptical about true, durable stability.
• “Even if [the Strait of Hormuz] reopens... for Asia, that shift might be too little, too late.” —Joe Wiesenthal (03:13)
• The period of closure imposed a de facto "war tax" on many essential goods, with unequal effects across countries.

3. Disproportionate Pain for Asia and Developing Countries

• Wealthy countries (US, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong) have deployed strategic reserves and fuel subsidies to cushion consumers.
• In contrast, poorer Asian nations, with smaller reserves and limited budgets, resorted to demand destruction—asking people to cut back on flights, commuting, and electricity usage.
• Tracey Alloway (06:15):
  “For a poorer country, I think that's one of the reasons in Asia you're seeing governments really focused on demand destruction rather than propping up prices.”

4. Inflation, Energy Subsidies, and Fiscal Strain

• Stark contrasts in gas prices:
  • Hong Kong: $33 per liter ($16/gallon), up 15% since the Iran war (07:29)
  • US: Strategic reserves released, but now near operational minimum (09:16)
• Joe Wiesenthal:
  “Wealthier countries are playing a very different game. Instead of asking citizens to cut back, they’re spending heavily to absorb the sticker shock at the pump…” (08:25)
• Risks include eroded fiscal positions for emerging markets, higher imported inflation due to the strong US dollar, and the need for some nations to even sell gold reserves to buy essential goods (10:22).

5. Critical Dependencies: Semiconductors and Helium

• The AI and tech sectors depend on Asia-based chipmakers, whose operations are especially sensitive to energy (and helium) shortages.
• Wan Ha (12:53):
  “Not a lot of elasticity in helium supply… if they truly run out of helium, then you just really have a much harder time making chips.”
• The existential race for AI infrastructure means massive investments continue, sometimes blunting traditional economic signals.

6. Broader Inflation and the Push for Stockpiles

• Across Asia, rising inflation is driving up both producer and consumer prices, especially in Japan.
• The new norm: accumulating stockpiles and overcapacity to prevent vulnerability—actions that are themselves inflationary.
• Tracey Alloway (14:12):
  "If you have everyone all at once trying to do this, that consumes resources. Right? That is de facto inflationary... you don't want to be left high and dry if there's a big disruption."

7. Looming Food Crisis

• Six to twelve months out: real danger of food shortages as farmers in Southeast Asia skip planting due to high diesel and fertilizer costs.
• Wan Ha (18:13):
  “The problem's going to arise in six months and 12 months time when the decisions we made today about do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year… farmers are going to say no, we're not going to do that.”
• Direct consequences: rising food prices, potential for political unrest, and a feedback loop affecting other sectors, like manufacturing.

8. Limits of Sanctions

• The crisis raises questions about the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool.
• Wan Ha (21:01):
  “All of [the power of sanctions is] being called into question right now.”

9. The Long-Term “New Normal”: From Globalization to Self-Sufficiency

• The war accelerated the shift away from hyper-globalization, as nations prioritize resilience, local supply chains, and strategic autonomy.
• Tracey Alloway (21:46):
  "Everyone has discovered from the past six years that these big one off, supposedly one off disruptions can happen with frequency. Right... that impulse is going to stick around for a long time."
• Wan Ha (22:25):
  “Trade barriers are going up and countries don't trust each other, and that is going to have consequences for both productivity and prices.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Joe Wiesenthal:
  "If we had $16 gasoline in the US, there would definitely be a revolution for sure." (07:51)

• Tracey Alloway:
  “Apparently the US is now getting pretty close to its operational minimum [in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve]. So I think the minimum is like 250 million barrels and we're now at 349 million.” (09:16)

• Wan Ha:
  “…perhaps one of the shoes that may be yet to drop is a food crisis in Asia and it's perhaps the hierarchy of needs, right? If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going to be buying electronics...” (18:46)

• Tracey Alloway:
  "I think that impulse [to stockpile] is going to stick around for a long time." (21:46)

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Important Timestamps

• [02:18] Stockpiling and early lessons from repeated disruptions
• [06:15] Demand destruction vs. subsidies in Asia
• [07:29] Gasoline prices in Hong Kong and implications
• [09:16] Risks of depleting US oil reserves
• [12:53] Helium’s importance for semiconductor manufacturing
• [14:12] Stockpiling as an inflationary force
• [18:13] Anticipating food shortages in Southeast Asia
• [21:01] Effectiveness of sanctions in a new geopolitical context
• [21:46] Lasting mindset shifts toward resilience and overcapacity
• [22:25] De-globalization trends and trust breakdowns between nations

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Conclusion: The New Economic Playbook

Though a peace deal offers relief from the most acute energy shocks, the war’s aftermath is rewriting the region's economic playbook. From energy diversification to food security and tech supply chains, Asia’s policymakers and businesses are bracing for more frequent disruptions, persistent inflation, and the need for greater self-reliance—heralding a world that is less interconnected, more cautious, and fundamentally altered by the conflict in and around Iran.

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Transcript

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[Wan Ha]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Radio News we begin the week with the US and Iran having reached an interim deal to end hostilities and reopen the Straits of Hormuz sent oil prices

[Wan Ha]

lower and sparked a relief rally across Asian markets.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Officials from both countries set to meet

[Wan Ha]

now in Switzerland on June 19, where

[Joe Wiesenthal]

the agreement will be formalized.

[Tracey Alloway]

Everyone has discovered from the past six years that these big one off, supposedly one off disruptions can happen with frequency.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

That's Bloomberg's Tracey Alloway. Tracy co hosts the Odd Lots podcast and she spends a lot of time looking at the long term impacts of geopolitics on the global economy.

[Tracey Alloway]

And so the lesson that everyone's been internalizing is that you need to build up stockpiles. You need to have independence in terms of your crucial supplies. You need to have additional capacity.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

And few places have shown the need for independence and ext capacity more clearly than in Asia over the past few months. After the US and Israel went to war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz grounded to a halt, choking off supplies of virtually every major commodity, including one fifth of the world's oil.

[Wan Ha]

But I think a lot of great things are going to happen in The Middle east right now, and very importantly, the oil is plummeting down.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

At the G7 summit in France, President Trump touted a deal the US reached with Iran's regime over the weekend, which he says will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

[Wan Ha]

Essentially, ships are starting to go out now. On Friday, it'll be completely opened.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Across Asia, countries are welcoming the U. S. Iran peace deal that would help destabilize global energy prices and reopen a vital shipping route. But many are skeptical that will happen. And even if it does, for Asia, that shift might be too little, too late.

[Wan Ha]

There is this brewing but not yet impacting food issue that will arise in Southeast Asia specifically.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

That's Bloomberg's Joe Wiesenthal. He co hosts Odd Lots with Tracy.

[Wan Ha]

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is gonna create a food stress in much of the world during the next planting season. And if there's food stress, people will be buy and not random manufactured goods in China come that time. And so there may be an element where China is choosing to reduce its imports so that its customers of manufacturers have more capacity come next year.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Welcome to the big Tech Asia from Bloomberg News. Hi, I'm Wan Ha. Today I'm sitting down with my colleagues Tracy Alloway and Joe Wiesenthal, co hosts of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast. We recorded this conversation just before news broke that Iran and the US May have struck a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And as you'll hear, this discussion is arguably just as relevant now as when we taped it. While the reopening of the Strait would be a welcome relief, the structural shifts caused by the conflict have fundamentally changed businesses across Asia. And the resulting pressure on food and energy supplies and prices isn't going away anytime soon. On today's show, we dive into why Asia is feeling more economic pain from this conflict than Western nations and what the new normal looks like for the region and the rest of the world. While the details of the proposed new deal between the US And Iran remain unclear, one thing is certain. War in Iran and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz have effectively slapped a war tax on vital products, and it's impacted every corner of the global economy. You've probably felt the pinch in one way or another, but its effects haven't been distributed evenly. Wealthy countries like the US And Japan have opted to drain their stockpiles of crude oil. In other corners of the world, governments are turning to demand destruction by encouraging industries and consumers to use less. But that risks Slowing economic growth and triggering recession. It's a glaring disparity. And Bloomberg's Tracey Alloway says it highlights a structural vulnerability.

[Tracey Alloway]

They're often poorer countries. They don't have as big stockpiles of oil inventory. And the one thing we've seen developed countries do across the world is really start to dig into those stockpiles and release barrels in order to, I guess, cushion the higher prices. And so for a poorer country, I think that's one of the reasons in Asia, you're seeing the governments really focused on demand destruction rather than propping up prices. So you've had, I think India was encouraging people not to go on flights. People are being urged not to drive to work, things like that. China is doing pretty much all the heavy lifting in terms of demand destruction or, like, the bulk of it. So I saw a JP Morgan estimate, I think, saying that demand for oil from China had fallen like, 9%. I think that's 1.5 million barrels a day.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

It's huge.

[Tracey Alloway]

Yeah, it's a pretty big deal. And again, it stands in stark contrast to a lot of the developed nations like the US that are really digging into their stockpiles.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

You know, I don't know if you guys have noticed in your time here, the prices at gas stations. Do you know how much gas in Hong Kong costs?

[Wan Ha]

No, no.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

About $33 per liter, which is its equivalent of about $16 per gallon.

[Wan Ha]

Wow.

[Tracey Alloway]

Right?

[Joe Wiesenthal]

That's up about 15% since the Iran war began. And diesel prices have actually jumped. Like, and I wonder, how does this stack up to what we've seen in the US And I guess, more importantly, how does that feed into inflationary pressures?

[Wan Ha]

I mean, if we had $16 gasoline in the US there would definitely be a revolution for sure. Clearly, inflation is trending up in the US For a number of reasons. One of them is oil. And so you might say, well, you strip that out because that goes into headline rather than core inflation. But then when you think about, like, everything has oil or energy in it, especially because of transport costs, it just builds that pressure. Throw in all the data center spending, and the story is just like building heat and pressure on everything, and oil is just part of it.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

In some countries with limited resources, governments are left with little choice but to turn the lights off. But wealthier countries are playing a very different game. Instead of asking citizens to cut back, the countries who can afford it are spending heavily to absorb the sticker shock at the pump. You know, here in Hong Kong, the government is actually putting aside the equivalent of US$230 million in a subsidy program to help manage soaring fuel prices. It does seem like there's this imbalance in how the burden of the conflict is being carried.

[Public/Pedigree Advertisers]

Right.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

You've got developed economies like Hong Kong and Germany able to afford these subsidies, while you've got emerging countries who literally can't keep the lights on. What do you guys make of that disparity? And I guess the question is, is this something the US policymakers even think about?

[Tracey Alloway]

Probably not, to be honest. One of the interesting things here is to me is how long the US can actually offset the pain of higher prices. They've obviously been releasing a lot from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The question is how long can you actually keep doing it? And apparently the US is now getting pretty close to its operational minimum. So I think the minimum is like 250 million barrels and we're now at 349 million.

[Wan Ha]

Yeah. As the lowest. We're back to the post Covid lows.

[Tracey Alloway]

Yeah, that's right. So the issue in the US is like crunch time could come. Right.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Like they're going to lose that buffer pretty soon.

[Wan Ha]

Yeah.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

And I think Asia does seem caught in this trap that really is not of its own making.

[Public/Pedigree Advertisers]

Right.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

You've got interest rates that are rising globally, of course, driven by the war shocks and the investment boom centered in the US and the West. You've got the US dollar really strong right now. What do you strongest impact of the US dollar strengthening on emerging Asian economies?

[Tracey Alloway]

Not good. So there's the outlook for economic growth and there's the outlook for the fiscal side, let's say. And so if you're spending money to subsidize oil prices and you're running through your stockpiles in some instances, then it becomes more expensive the longer it goes on. One of the theories I've seen for the falling gold price recently is that government selling or central banks are are selling reserve assets in order to raise more foreign affects so that they can buy more oil at the higher prices. So it exacerbates foreign currency exposure for emerging markets and probably weakens their fiscal position in the future. And then in terms of economic growth. So obviously if you can't get oil, if you can't get feedstock for plastics, that's pretty much in everything. And so you'll see less economic activity. But on the other, and if we see some countries respond to higher oil prices by actually building out more clean energy capacity, selling more EVs for instance, then like that could be a little bit of an Economic boost. And I'm not saying that it's enough to fully offset the impact, but, like, it's something at least.

[Wan Ha]

So, like, let's get back to the context of the question. It doesn't matter what the price of the dollar is. People are going to spend a crazy amount of money on memory chips from Korea, period. The won could go up, the yuan could go down. It doesn't matter. We're going to be shipping a lot of dollars to Korea and Taiwan for key infrastructure for the AI buildout. And so I think, yes, absolutely. Like, the strength of the dollar is real. But I think we're in this very odd moment where, because the AI race feels existential, that the traditional macro signals that we would look at, like, rates and FX are being sw the spending that everyone has just chosen to make for existential reasons on so many aspects of AI.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Yeah. And to your point, Asia is the backbone of the global AI ecosystem. Factories here produce the chips that power the AI revolution. But those factories rely heavily on energy and raw materials. Right. So what happens if there's ongoing uncertainty or disruption at the Strait of Hormuz?

[Tracey Alloway]

Should we do helium?

[Wan Ha]

Yeah, I was gonna. Yeah, go for it.

[Tracey Alloway]

No, you start.

[Wan Ha]

Well, I was just gonna say, like, both of our minds went to helium at the same time. So it's like, this is pretty important in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Helium. Please don't ask me exactly why, but it has to do something with, like, its ability to go down to incredibly cold temperatures, which is helpful in all kinds of different ways. But there is not a lot of elasticity in helium supply. And so if there's going to be, like, one link where the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz might actually intersect with that, it would be if they truly run out of helium, and then you just really have a much harder time making chips.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Now I want to shift to interest rates for a bit. Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated in May at its fastest pace in three years. And its producer price index also surged to 6%. 0.3% was quite high. That puts a lot of pressure on the bank of Japan to hike interest rates. And across Asia, you are seeing countries raising their inflation projections and pushing interest rates higher. What do you think would be the broader impact of prolonged inflation across Asia and what does it mean for US Consumers?

[Tracey Alloway]

So the inflationary impact is there.

[Wan Ha]

Right.

[Tracey Alloway]

And it's not even necessarily oil. It's also those petrochemicals which go into everything. And then the other thing in terms of inflation, governments and companies around the world are learning that it's important to build up stockpiles and it's important to build out your energy capacity or your petrochemical capacity or your chips capacity, things like that. If you have everyone all at once trying to do this, that consumes resources, right? That is de facto inflationary. And I think that's probably the lesson we have collectively learned from the past few years, is that you don't want to be left high and dry if there's a big disruption. It is really important to have extra stuff. And extra stuff, you know, means higher prices.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

After the break.

[Wan Ha]

Why?

[Joe Wiesenthal]

We may not yet have seen the full extent of damage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuzz and how the fallout from the war is reshaping Asia's relationship with the rest of the world.

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[Joe Wiesenthal]

The supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is arguably the biggest ever. But by draining reserves, finding workarounds and managing demand, governments have tried to shield their citizens from the pain or delaying it at least. Even if the Strait does open this weekend, Bloomberg's Joe Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway say that pain might still be coming. Richer countries will be able to spend time, but poorer countries in Asia don't have those resources and that could spell trouble for everyone. You guys spoke with a former farmer, Lorcan Kelly, on one of your recent episodes.

[Wan Ha]

The problem's going to arise in 6 months and 12 months time when the decisions we made today about do I plant that field of wheat or do I breed more cattle for next year and farmers are going to say no, we're not going to do that.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

You know, across Southeast Asia right now, farmers are now skipping this planting season, right, because they can't afford the de for the tractors. They can't afford the diesel for the water pumps. Right. That they need to cultivate the crops. And some are actually choosing to leave crops rotting in the ground because they can't afford to harvest. I mean, that's huge, right?

[Wan Ha]

So this is what I was saying earlier, that perhaps one of the shoes that may be yet to drop is a food crisis in Asia and it's perhaps the hierarchy of needs, right? If you're struggling to buy food, you're not going to be buying electronics, right from China, whatever it else. And so perhaps one part of the logic for China to reduce its imports is to ease a little bit of that squeeze. But what I've heard, which is that there is this brewing but not yet impacting food issue that will arise in Southeast Asia.

[Tracey Alloway]

Specifically when it comes to the impact of fertilizer, we're talking about longer timeframes because there are planting seasons. As you just mentioned, one historical anecdote that I learned from Adam Tooze is that apparently in ancient Roman times, emperors would try to time wars so that they weren't during the planting season so that it wouldn't disrupt food supplies and also so that farmers could actually go off and be soldiers. But clearly we seem to have forgotten that lesson.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

I want to stay on food for a bit. You know, in Thailand. I was there in Bangkok just a couple weeks ago and talked to our colleagues there. I mean they've done Some really great reporting on how fishermen in Thailand are keeping their boats anchored because fuel eats up more than half of the cost of every trip. So they basically can't raise the price of their catch. Right. So they're deciding not to go out. And I wonder to what extent should policymakers and leaders worry about this turning into a political problem? Right, this ag issue.

[Wan Ha]

Yeah, I mean, look, I don't know if I ever fully bought the theory, but there are many people who argued, for example, that the catalyst for the Arab Spring was wheat prices that year. And our leadership has other things on their mind. We're talking about this is very classic type of thing that creates real political disruption. And I don't think we should have the hubris to assume that these cycles which have data points going back thousands of years, have suddenly stopped.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

And I guess with sanctions, I do wonder to what extent that the oil crunch would lead to the weakening of essentially one of the US's biggest non military weapons. Right. Sanctions.

[Wan Ha]

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal that the North Korean economy is doing surprisingly well. They're actually building a lot of housing and there's sort of quite a little evidence of like improving standard of living and so forth. And of course here is a, you know, one of the most sanctioned countries on earth for a very long time. I just think like the degree to which sanctions are a powerful tool or that they could really be used to like crush any enemy. All of it's being called into question right now.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Now let's say the war ends next week. How do you think the world has fundamentally been changed because of this war and how it's played out?

[Tracey Alloway]

So I think it goes back to I guess the idea of the church choke point economy. So everyone has discovered from the past six years that these big one off, supposedly one off disruptions can happen with frequency. Right. So each disruption is slightly different in what it actually is, but they're happening more often. I mean, I'm sure both of us having been in Hong Kong during the pandemic, I will always keep an extra supply of toilet paper from now until forever. Basically we all learn that. And so I, I think that impulse is going to stick around for a long time.

[Wan Ha]

The world is very globalized. I feel like for me coming here to Hong Kong, it's been very helpful reminder like how integrated the world still is. But these are the trend. The wheels are all spinning in the opposite direction of where they were in, you know, the second half, half of the 20th century. Trade barriers are going up and countries don't trust each other, and that is going to have consequences for both productivity and prices.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Juan Hannah. To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer. If you liked the episode, make sure to subscribe and review the Big Take Asia. Wherever you listen to podcasts, it really helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. See you next time.

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