Odd Lots – Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed

Podcast Date: April 6, 2026
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway
Guest: Gina Raimondo (Distinguished Fellow at CFR, former U.S. Commerce Secretary and Governor of Rhode Island)

Main Theme and Purpose

This live Odd Lots episode, recorded at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), centers on the precarious state of European industry in the face of increased Chinese imports and the breakdown in transatlantic relations. Gina Raimondo reflects on her tenure as Commerce Secretary, delving into the U.S.–Europe–China dynamic, the impact of Chinese industrial policy on Europe, economic security, AI’s disruptive potential, and the challenges of building resilient supply chains and industrial policy in the U.S. The discussion weaves together geopolitics, economics, and the future of work in the AI era, offering both sharp warnings and pragmatic policy ideas.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Fraying U.S.–Europe Relations and NATO’s Future

• Context of Geopolitical Tension: Discussion opens (02:32) by referencing President Trump’s speech threatening NATO disengagement due to European inaction regarding the Iran war.
• Raimondo’s Assessment: She observes that Europe’s patience with the U.S. is “wearing thin,” citing her recent experience at the Munich Security Conference (03:14):

  “I don’t think it's that thick. … I think their patience is wearing thin with us, somewhat justifiably so.”

• Critiques the Trump administration’s approach: grievances about lack of allied coordination and execution, not necessarily the core arguments.

2. Europe’s Industrial Decline and China’s Playbook

• China’s Economic Aggression: Raimondo asserts Europe is facing a surge in imports from China, especially in key sectors (04:37):

  "The German industrial base is going to get crushed. Like, this is China's play … they subsidize, they dump cheap products into the global market … and it makes it impossible to compete."

• Asserts this is actively weakening U.S. allies and is bad for both Europe and America.
• Encourages Europeans not to "cozy up to China," framing China as distinctly self-interested and damaging to European interests.

3. Europe’s Economic and Technological Weakness

• Industrial & Supply Chain Vulnerabilities (07:04–09:35):
  • Europe lacks world-leading tech companies; is at risk of continued decline in critical sectors like chemicals and petrochemicals.
  • The U.S. should advocate for closer cooperation with European allies and not strive for total self-sufficiency. Instead, focus on diversified, ally-based supply chains.
• Quote (09:35):

  "...it's bad for America and the world and Europe that they have such an anemic technology ecosystem ... they need to act on it."

4. Political Dynamics—Allies, China, and the Costs of Division

• European Political Calculus (12:13):
  • European leaders, faced with U.S. political volatility and public insults, rationalize relationships with China.
  • Raimondo’s perspective:

    "Cozying up with China is bad for you, arguably it’s worse for you than us. Why are you doing that? ... You can be self-destructive because it saves face, but I don't think it's a good idea."

• Pitches for politicians to put the national/economic interest over personal or electoral survival (12:52).

5. Business Attitudes to China & AI (15:48–18:33)

• Most business leaders still see China as a critical market. Raimondo clarifies U.S. policy: trading with China is fine outside of strategic/national security technology.
• She draws a clear line:

  "...selling our most sophisticated leading edge chips to China ... that's a very different thing. But by the way, that is a tiny [fraction]. … I want American companies to be profitable and successful." (16:29)

6. The Real Risks and Promise of AI

• American Anxiety About AI (18:43–21:45):
  • AI evokes fear—job loss dominates public perception.
  • Raimondo is bullish on eventual job growth, but deeply concerned about the social and political transition.
  • Quote (19:44):

    “We will not do that—even if we have … the best models, the best chips, the biggest data centers—but sky-high unemployment and no transition system, that’s not winning, that’s automating America’s decline.”

• Call for Support Systems:
  • Advocates urgent development of new policies—transition and retraining systems, safety nets beyond classic unemployment insurance (27:47).

7. Practical Policy Suggestions

• Retraining, Incentives & Local Innovation (32:14–33:59):
  • Suggests ideas like paying unemployment benefits to laid-off workers starting new businesses, and requiring former employers to contribute to new ventures.
  • Predicts that AI could spark “an explosion of new small companies" thanks to easy-to-use tools (32:16).

8. Evaluating Industrial Policy and the CHIPS Act

• Bipartisanship Is Essential (40:25):
  • The survival of the CHIPS Act—despite political changes—is credited to its bipartisan support, contrasting it with the more vulnerable Inflation Reduction Act.
• Limits of Self-sufficiency (42:39–45:43):
  • Even optimistic scenarios leave the U.S. heavily reliant on global supply chains—advanced chip packaging, critical inputs, and chemicals remain Asia-centric.
  • Quote:

    “Our goal was to get from 0% of leading edge chips in the U.S. to I think 20% of global capacity by 2030. We're on path to hit that goal. But again, 20%.” (42:39)

  • Advocates for diversification rather than total domestic production.

9. The Future of U.S.-Led Alliances and the Polyamorous Trading Order

• Strategic Realism in Partnership (46:32–49:09):
  • Raimondo resists both rigid “blocks” and idealized values-only alliances.
  • Argues for practical relationships with a variety of countries—even those with imperfect records—to reduce reliance on China and secure strategic resources.
  • Quote:

    “I think we have to kiss and make up with Europe. It’s in our interest. ... We gotta work with [partners] because it’s in our interest and it’s in the world’s interest to deescalate.” (48:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On China’s industrial strategy:

  "The German industrial base is going to get crushed. Like, this is China's play ... they subsidize, they dump cheap products … it makes it impossible to compete."
  (04:37, Gina Raimondo)

• On global dependency and the U.S. role:

  "We need allies, including Europe ... [and] the global South ... pissing off all our allies, it's just not a good idea."
  (04:37, Gina Raimondo)

• On the future of AI and disruption:

  “We will not do that—even if we have … the best models, the best chips, the biggest data centers—but sky-high unemployment and no transition system, that’s not winning, that’s automating America’s decline.”
  (19:44, Gina Raimondo)

• On political incentives:

  “Their job isn’t actually to get reelected. Their job is to do the job and serve the people that elected them.”
  (12:52, Gina Raimondo)

• On diversification vs. autarky:

  “We should make the most critical things and work with our allies. ... We don't have enough people. That's inflationary. We don't have enough land, we don't have enough energy."
  (43:09, Gina Raimondo)

• On pragmatic alliances:

  "We gotta work with [partners] because it’s in our interest and it’s in the world’s interest to deescalate.”
  (48:47, Gina Raimondo)

Important Timestamps

• [02:32] – Geopolitical context: U.S.–Europe rift, NATO concerns
• [04:37] – China’s impact on European industry
• [07:04] – Europe’s economic and technological vulnerability
• [09:35] – Why the U.S. can’t (and shouldn’t) “make everything”
• [12:52] – Political incentives and the cost to alliances
• [16:29] – U.S. business attitude to China; trade vs. security
• [18:43] – AI: threat, promise, and the need for new support systems
• [27:47] – Examples of broken U.S. systems: unemployment, retraining
• [32:16] – AI-enabled entrepreneurship: room for optimism
• [40:25] – CHIPS Act: importance of bipartisanship
• [42:39] – Realistic goals and global choke points in semiconductor supply
• [45:43] – Supply chain complexity and strategic diversification
• [46:32] – The polyamorous trading order and future alliances
• [48:47] – The case for practical, not ideological, partnerships

Overall Tone

Candid, pragmatic, and sometimes urgent—Raimondo is frank about faults in policy and the severe implications of inaction, especially on AI and global alliances. The hosts maintain an engaged, sometimes playful but incisive approach, allowing for both deep dives and asides that humanize the conversation.

Summary Takeaways

• The European industrial decline under Chinese competition is severe, with dramatic consequences for both Europe and the U.S. China’s “playbook” of state-backed dumping is eroding Europe’s foundational industries.
• Disarray in U.S.–Europe relations undermines both economic and security interests; cohesive alliances are essential to counter China.
• The future of work in the AI era is unknowable—but dangerous if unplanned. The U.S. must urgently invent new safety nets, training, and transition policies to avoid social disaster as industries change.
• “Making everything in America” is a seductive but unrealistic idea. Diversification with allies is the only practical path to national and economic security.
• Pragmatic alliances—even with imperfect partners—are necessary to secure critical materials and limit Chinese leverage.
• Policy must be flexible, bipartisan, and future-focused—otherwise, structural weaknesses and political gridlock will undermine national goals.

This episode is essential listening for anyone concerned about the future of transatlantic relations, industrial competitiveness, technological disruption, and the real work of reinventing economic policy for an unpredictable era.