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- [00:00]
Public Ad
And here we have a specimen from the early 2000s, a legacy investing platform. Please don't touch the exhibit folks.
- [00:07]
Henry Blodgett
It could crash.
- [00:09]
Public Ad
Ready to step out of the Financial history museum? At public.com you can invest in almost everything stocks, bonds, options and more. You can even put your cash to work at an industry leading 4.1% APY. Leave your clunky, outdated platform behind. Go to public.com podcast and fund your account in five minutes or less. Paid for by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Full disclosures@public.com disclosures when you're with Amex Business Platinum, you have the card that helps businesses dream bigger, get a flexible spending limit that adapts with your business, and earn 1.5 times Membership Rewards points.
- [00:44]
Henry Blodgett
On select business purchases so you can.
- [00:46]
Public Ad
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- [00:56]
Henry Blodgett
Terms apply.
- [00:57]
Public Ad
Learn more@americanexpress.com AmExBusiness.
- [01:04]
Bloomberg Audio Studios
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:19]
Joe Weisenthal
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
- [01:25]
Tracy Alloway
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
- [01:26]
Joe Weisenthal
Tracy, you know I can never get enough talking about late 90s.com stuff.
- [01:32]
Tracy Alloway
I know you're just gifting episodes to yourself at this point, but that's fine. I'm into it.
- [01:37]
Joe Weisenthal
That's always been the case. And for all the years we've done this podcast, I've made that comment here and there. But you know, recently it has particular salience because people are trying to understand AI. We had that conversation down in D.C. several weeks ago with Blair Levin. Talk about some of the similarities and dissimilarities between AI and telecoms. So at least we have an excuse for these conversations.
- [02:01]
Tracy Alloway
There is definitely a news peg. I'm looking at a chart of Super Micro right now. They just put out results that I guess were disappointing because the shares are down about 20%. We're recording this on April 30th at 10:04am And Joe, can I just say we can labor this intro as much as you want about like, similarities with the early 2000s tech bubble, but I'm just excited to speak to your old boss. That's all I wanna get out of this conversation. Just Joe stories.
- [02:29]
Joe Weisenthal
Okay, that's fine. So this is an episode that I've wanted to make happen for a very, very long time and the timing is suddenly working out. I don't even know what we're really gonna talk about, but we'll have a good conversation. Yes, we are speaking to my old boss. So a couple of major caveats or disclaimers, et cetera. I owe this gu huge chunk for my own career and the success and the good fortune that I've had in my career. We're going to be speaking, of course, to Henry Blodgett. He's the editor of a new publication called Regenerator, which is going to be focused on innovation and business and news and tech and stuff like that. Of course, the connection to me is that he is the founder of Insider. When I joined, I think it was called Silicon Alley Insider.
- [03:20]
Tracy Alloway
Oh, that's a blast.
- [03:21]
Joe Weisenthal
And then Business Insider, and then Insider. I'm not exactly sure what the fuck final iteration of the name was. And of course, prior to that, several years earlier, he had been a tech analyst at Merrill lynch, one of the most famous analysts of the sort of tech sector. And of course, have to acknowledge the second caveat or disclaimer here, which was he was famously or infamously prevented afterwards from working on Wall Street. Have to mention that. Maybe it'll come up, but with all of this throat clearing out of the way. Henry, thrilled to have you on the podcast finally.
- [03:55]
Henry Blodgett
I am.
- [03:56]
Joe Weisenthal
This is a little weird. I'm actually a little nervous, if I'm being totally honest. I'm actually. I don't usually get anxious ever in any setting anymore. I'm a little anxious talking to my old boss.
- [04:04]
Henry Blodgett
Well, it is great to be here. It's a privilege. You guys do an amazing job. And I would say the student has become the master.
- [04:10]
Joe Weisenthal
No, but for real, thank you so much for coming on. Odd lot. Really excited. I'm trying to think.
- [04:15]
Tracy Alloway
Oh, this is very sweet.
- [04:17]
Henry Blodgett
I know.
- [04:17]
Joe Weisenthal
No, I'm like, actually a little bit like a verklempt.
- [04:20]
Tracy Alloway
I'll ask a question.
- [04:21]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, Tracy can ask the first question while I collect myself.
- [04:24]
Tracy Alloway
How did you find Joe?
- [04:25]
Joe Weisenthal
Oh, I wonder if he remembers.
- [04:27]
Henry Blodgett
I was aware of Joe at another publication. I can't remember what it was, and I can't remember whether I hired Joe or Julie Hansen hired Joe or somebody else, but there he was. And we were in an environment where I was surrounded by a newsroom full of very eager, excited folks. And again and again and again. The one who differentiated himself by his incredible fascination with and mastery of all things and his ability to write with an Internet metabolism, which is somewhere between talk radio and magazines, whereas a lot of other folks wanted to come in and basically recreate the New Yorker. And so we spotted your talent very fast and Then your career took off like a rocket ship. And we were lucky to have you as long as we did.
- [05:20]
Tracy Alloway
I like the idea of people just not finding Jo, but just being aware of Joe. It's sort of like the Mr. Bean intro, where you just fall out of the sky. Joe's just there, and everyone kind of became aware of it.
- [05:33]
Joe Weisenthal
So there's actually a very elegant connection to all of this, which was. The first time we met was during, you know, it was like probably Tech Week in New York. And. And we met at a party at Gracie Mansion when Michael Bloomberg was the mayor. And now we're here at Bloomberg. And so we met. I was at Paid Content, I was covering earnings, you guys at Silicon Alley were covering earnings and so forth. And we chatted, and then several months later, I joined. All right, enough about all this personal stuff.
- [06:03]
Tracy Alloway
No, I'm going to have more questions, but go on.
- [06:06]
Joe Weisenthal
You know, I love talking about the late 90s. And we'll get small picture, but big picture. When you look at this incredible enthusiasm for AI and it's sort of cooled off, obviously, in the market over the last several months, but from a business perspective, it's tons and tons of AI interest. You know what reminds you of the late 90s, whether it's telecom or just dot com. And what feels dissimilar to you?
- [06:31]
Henry Blodgett
Well, stepping back, if you look at AI as a sector.
- [06:34]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
- [06:35]
Henry Blodgett
That is very reminiscent of what happened in the late 90s, where in the mid-90s the Internet came along. Everybody knew it was going to be huge. There was suddenly a huge scrum of investment capital attracted to it. We had this experimentation for five years where a lot of people were making money hand over fist. Then we went through a devastating crash, which is normally the pattern here. The same thing is happening within the AI sector. But I should step back and say, just to check, I looked at the broader tech sector and we are categorically not in a tech bubble right now. You look at the big Magnificent Seven, whatever you want to call them, they are trading at high but arguably reasonable earnings multiples.
- [07:19]
Joe Weisenthal
And that was the case, say, six months ago, too, before we had some.
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Henry Blodgett
Higher multiples, but still 30 times earnings or 35 times earnings for Nvidia, which is the big AI stock, or the most direct way to play it. But yes, if you look in the private markets, and this is one thing that's very different is all of this is happening in a private market now. So we don't have a very good view of the financials of these companies.
- [07:41]
Joe Weisenthal
But all you need is like a PhD and a white paper. You're getting like half a billion dollar valuations for these startups.
- [07:46]
Henry Blodgett
That's right, yes. It's extraordinary. And I think one thing to look at to sort of check the sanity of it is let's look at the biggest one, OpenAI. Okay, they just did a huge round where they raised $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation. Six months to 12 months earlier, investors were being declared absolutely insane for investing at 100 billion and 150 and now here we are at 300 and so what does that mean? Is it clearly insanity? Well, if you look at OpenAI's fundamental business based on what we know, which is again, very secondhand and so forth, they are doing something like $12 billion of revenue this year. Now, stepping back, that is an incredible number for a company that is five years old. This company is growing a faster rate than pretty much any company in history. And if you look at one of the financing models from a year ago at $150 billion valuation, apparently the projection was that they would do $100 billion of revenue in 2029. If that is the case, and I would assume that that number is probably higher now, given that they've jacked the valuation up, then, okay, we're looking at three times revenue.
- [09:04]
Joe Weisenthal
Three times 2029, 2029 revenue.
- [09:06]
Henry Blodgett
A lot has to go, right? But if you believe that OpenAI is going to win this next wave in the same way that Google or Amazon ultimately won the Internet wave, three times revenue for that, even given that they're burning $5 billion a year, you know, you can see how professional investors who really actually do know the numbers are getting there. So I would just say if you look at that, that is probably the justification. And then the other thing that people forget, or at least I don't hear when I hear this discussed, is that most professional investors are investing in preferred stock. That's very different than public markets where we're buying common, because you have downside protection, basically, for SoftBank and the others who just invested in OpenAI at 300 billion, to lose money, OpenAI has to be liquidated at less than 40 billion. Otherwise they get all their money back off the top. And they may even have provisions in the deal that give them a ratchet on top of that, that give them return. So it's very hard to really know what's going on. But that's, that's the thing. So stepping back, again, you look at that and you say, ho, based on Today's numbers. Yeah, that is a fantastical valuation. But this is probably what investors are looking at now. Another point that Brad Gerstner and others have made about this is if you look back in the 1990s, what happened with Internet companies, we had the premier companies like Amazon and Yahoo had these phenomenal valuations. And then there were all of the secondary companies that looked similar, did the same thing, were in the same market. And a lot of investors who missed the big ones came roaring in. I gotta get into Lycos or Excite or Infoseek or cd. Now they're cheaper than Amazon. Yeah, I will just say that pretty much all of those companies went to zero. So the idea now that you can escape the incredibly high OpenAI valuation by investing in Anthropic or Grok or any of the secondary ones, maybe that works, maybe there's room for dozens of companies. But if PASS is prologue here, there's going to be one winner, which, and the last thing I'll say is, by the way, it might not be OpenAI because if you look at the big winners of the 1990s, Yahoo would, you.
- [11:27]
Joe Weisenthal
Would have thought Yahoo would be a nine tonight.
- [11:29]
Henry Blodgett
And they got creamed by Google, which came in during the crash. Amazon almost went bankrupt. You did not have to buy it in the late 1990s, although I did. And then we wrote it down 90 something percent, it almost went bankrupt and then finally seven years later it went to the moon. But these things play out. I do think we'll have the same sort of pattern in this sector, that at some point we'll hit a peak, everything will crater. Everyone will pile on and say, oh, see how stupid everybody was? And then a few companies will go on and make all of the money that was lost worth it for the folks who are in the winners.
- [12:05]
Joe Weisenthal
I'll just say two things having been worked at, actually. Two venture backed startups, paid content, which did sell for a little bit to the Guardian, and also Insider. I'm very intimately familiar with the concept of preferred stock versus common stock and how that gets treated in an acquisition. And one thing, Tracy, that I always liked working with Henry, he actually knows numbers and remembers these details, which I appreciate in these conversations.
- [12:30]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah, I can tell. Okay, Henry, you just went through all the AI stuff, so I'm just going to ask you what's your favorite memory of Joe at?
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Joe Weisenthal
No, come on, stop, stop, stop.
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Tracy Alloway
Okay, okay, okay. I won't, I won't, I won't. Okay. On AI, it strikes me that one of the big parallels and you just touched on it there. But it's the narrative, right? And it's the idea that AI is going to change the world. Back in the 90s, we had the whole the Internet's going to change the world, which was true. It was true that the Internet changed the world, just potentially not in the way analysts had been forecasting at that time. Talk to us about, I guess, the story that is being built around AI. And as a former Wall street analyst, I imagine you are very, very familiar importance of narratives, stories in pitching some of these investment ideas.
- [13:17]
Henry Blodgett
Yes, I think that if you look at the idea behind what's happening with AI is it's a revolutionary new technology that will smash into the economy and have major changes. And one of the theories that sounds right to me, certainly based on the Internet and other technologies that have come in, is that the economy will now adapt and there will be three kinds of companies. There will be traditional companies that refuse to use AI and ultimately lose their competitive advantage, or maybe they are in a business that has nothing to do with AI, maybe paint or something like that. So it doesn't matter. There will be companies that try to integrate AI into their traditional operations. And those would be analogous to the clicks and mortar companies back in the 1990s and since. And then there will be companies that are built around AI, so they're not providing the technology, but they are using AI in a new way. And that's giving them the ability to be vastly more productive or grow at a much greater rate. And so I think that that's the way we'll see the economy adapt. And I do think the storytelling, it's not directly related to AI, although part of it is one of the stocks that fascinates me right now, and this will be the exception to my declaration that there's no bubble in broader technology is Tesla. Tesla has always traded at a multiple that has almost nothing to do with its current operations and everything to do with Elon Musk.
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Joe Weisenthal
Some imagined future business that's going to produce a mountain of cash and it's always six to 18 months away.
- [14:47]
Henry Blodgett
People used to talk about Steve Jobs ability to create a reality distortion field. Elon Musk is much better at it than Steve Jobs was, to the point where he can go on an earnings call on a disastrous quarter like Tesla just had. Tell a story about robo taxis and humanoid robots. Trillions of dollars of revenue, and he's going to go from spending less than a tiny percentage of his time at Tesla to a little bit more of his time at Tesla and in the week since the Stock is up 20%. That is because of two things. One, Elon's ability to tell an amazing story. And that is what leaders have to do. They have to rally people to work together to create a better future. And then two, importantly, it's not just storytelling. Elon has done on the business side some things that are simply astounding. One of the companies, if you create only one of the companies he's created, that would be a hall of fame performance for most entrepreneurs. He's created eight of them. The rocket company, the satellite Internet company, Tesla, which people forget. No new car companies to survive for 75 years and suddenly he builds one. And even now in its demolished state, Tesla is still has the single best selling car on the planet. It's amazing. So that's what storytelling is. And so much of what I think Michael Moritz from Sequoia said this the other day. So much of what teach in business school, if you were teaching a course, is not finance or financial analysis or accounting, but how to tell a story and get your not just your investors, although that's important, but your employees on board and excited about this great thing that you're going to build and the suspension of disbelief. And I do think that Elon Musk is extraordinarily good at that. And by the way, Sam Altman must be extraordinarily good at it too, or they wouldn't be where they are.
- [16:51]
Public Ad
And here we have a specimen from the early 2000s, a legacy investing platform. Please don't touch the exhibit folks.
- [16:59]
Henry Blodgett
It could crash.
- [17:01]
Public Ad
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- [17:52]
Bloomberg Audio Studios
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- [18:22]
Joe Weisenthal
You know, going back to the late 90s or I guess the early 2000s. You know, obviously we remember AOL Time Warner as the deal that we associate with the peak of euphoria. But from a sort of actual fundamentals standpoint, what was the first sign to you that a cool window, a cool breeze was coming on? Do you have a memory of, like, oh, maybe some of these growth forecasts? Because when you think about, well, what could dent private AI valuations or what could even dent, you know, public ones, or what could invented Tesla? Was there a moment they said, huh? Is not quite living up to what I thought in terms of some of the numbers, et cetera.
- [19:00]
Henry Blodgett
Yes, definitely. But I should also say this benefits from the 2020 hindsight.
- [19:05]
Joe Weisenthal
Sure.
- [19:06]
Henry Blodgett
Which is if you. One of the. One of the features of these periods of market history, and if you look at all of them, you go back to tulips, or you look at the 1920s or the PC bubble in the early 1960s or 70s, I think, or 80s, you know, they all share these features. And one of the things that I remember very clearly about the 1990s is pretty much every year you had a deafening chorus of people saying, this is lunacy. It's just a bubble. It's crazy. It's a fad. And every year there was a pullback of 20 to 30%, where everybody freaked out. And you had enormous numbers of stories written saying, see, everyone was a moron. They were all insane, and it's over now. And then we.
- [19:48]
Tracy Alloway
I like how Henry talks in Business Insider headlines.
- [19:52]
Henry Blodgett
We would then roar off to new highs, and then the same thing would happen the next year. So if any one of those had led to the crash, we would all look back and say, see, that was the thing. And I will say that the other thing you find in these bubble periods is that there are two kinds of people. There are the people who think that the world is forever different and all the old valuation metrics can be discarded because it's different this time and so forth. And then there are the people who think, no, we are in a bubble, but I'm gonna ride the bubble right to the end, and then I'm gonna get off right at the top A.
- [20:30]
Joe Weisenthal
Little smarter than everyone else, so let.
- [20:32]
Henry Blodgett
Anybody else cr cashes. So I would say that by 1998, and I wrote a lot about this at the time, I was very much in the we are in a bubble camp. But I was also in the camp of the Internet's a profound technology that's going to radically change things and create very huge companies. So my investment recommendation early on at Merrill lynch was, hey, if you're, by the way, don't touch these things if you're not incredibly risk tolerant because there's just way too much risk. But if you are, buy a few of them so you have some diversification and plan to hold them for five to 10 years. And that's what I did myself. And I look back at my investment in aol, my investment in Yahoo and others, and say, what on earth was I thinking? What an idiot. Wish I hadn't. Fortunately, my investment in Amazon, despite almost going to zero that actually over 10 years, it paid all back. So that is the way to do it. And no public investors are investing in AI now. But if you were going to, I think, think that's sound, and I would even tighten the screen tighter, which is like only invest in the best ones because everybody else is going to be toast. But with that big preamble, what was the moment? So in 2000, as I recall, part of what had happened, part of what was fueling the bubble, and you find this in every bubble, is that there is something that is goosing the fundamentals of the companies that is actually attached to their valuations and what's happening in the markets. And so I was really looking for that. And usually it's debt, like people are borrowing margin debt or big debt. And in the telecom sector in the 1990s, that's what it was. All these telecom companies borrowing so much money, they're buying all the Cisco equipment, everything else, and eventually that train stopped and crashed. But in the consumer Internet sector, which is where I was focused, like advertising, I was looking for that leverage. I knew that the problem was that you get embedded in leverage in the. And in the summer of 2000, it started to break down, but I still didn't see what it was. And you know what it was? What it was was the incredible public market appetite for these securities, both on the debt side and the equity side. And so every new company, as you said, I think there was something like 400 companies that went public in 1999. Just insane. Every new company would go out and raise $30 million. They would immediately spend 5 million on a portal deal with Yahoo, and they'd spend 5 million on Sun Microsystems servers, and they'd spend 5 million on Oracle and so forth. And they were all losing huge amounts of money. So what was actually happening was even though they weren't borrowing money, they were getting money from the public markets and they were turning into actual spending with.
- [23:13]
Joe Weisenthal
So if I were an investor in an IPO that was turned into revenue for Yahoo and that flattered Yahoo's revenue.
- [23:20]
Henry Blodgett
Exactly. And then in meantime, you had this narrative that had been going on for years, not a week, but years, where all of the old economy companies and their management teams were getting totally shamed by resisting the Internet. Meanwhile, Amazon puts up these extraordinary numbers every quarter. Barnes and Noble is not going to kill them. In fact, they're going to kill Barnes and Noble. That started to become clear. So you have panic in the traditional economy saying, the train is leaving the station and if I don't get on that train or run after it, I'm going to get fired. So even all those guys started competing for the Yahoo deals and others. And so you had this just tremendous creation of fundamental revenue. And then when the IPO market closed and the debt market started to close, suddenly the tap got cut off. And within nine months, Yahoo, one of the best stocks in my sector, dropped, I think 93% because all of its revenue disappeared so fast. And so that was the leverage. And so something will be happening here that's like that. And maybe a lot of companies are panic spending on AI because they don't want to look like they're behind the times. Maybe a lot of consumers are trying AI and they're not going to actually figure out how to use it in a way that's profitable. So there may be a lot of leverage getting built into the system. And by the way, the very obvious one is we have this theory right now that OpenAI, it's all about just building bigger clusters and spending more on CapEx and Microsoft. Microsoft, now, they're all spending $80 billion a year on CapEx. We may have another deep seq moment where it's suddenly like, oh, wait, we can do it with a little software. We don't need to spend all that much on the chips, and then everything's going to crash.
- [25:07]
Joe Weisenthal
Tracy, I've been joking that if you're an investor in a big tech company, you probably hate to see the huge amount of capex being spent. But the only thing worse would be a big decrease in the amount of capex being spent, because that would be the actual sign that it's to come. Yeah.
- [25:23]
Tracy Alloway
Well, okay, so on this point, I mean, you, you touched on this earlier when you were talking about how a lot of the financing for AI right now is coming from the private markets. But it seems to me that the incestuousness in the tech industry, or maybe the circularity is a better way of putting it. This is the issue. Right. And when I see some of the things going on right now, like for instance, you know, hedge funds loaning core weave based on GPU. GPUs. That's it.
- [25:51]
Joe Weisenthal
Or Nvidia investing in core weave so that they could buy Nvidia chips.
- [25:56]
Tracy Alloway
Exactly.
- [25:56]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
- [25:57]
Tracy Alloway
This seems very like circular slash incestuous to me. And at the same time, because so much of it is happening in the private market, between hedge funds and private equity and these private deals, it seems very difficult to track.
- [26:10]
Henry Blodgett
That's right. And that is absolutely happening. We're seeing it. And then the other thing that I think people aren't talking about, and I said it earlier, I said, I hope Nvidia, my goodness, it's one of the big, the pure play way to play AI. It's only trading at 30, 35 times earnings. That's reasonable. Okay, but that's reasonable based on Nvidia having monopoly power being the only source of these chips, just selling an extraordinary number of them over the last year or two or three. And what happens if demand for those chips drop or China vaults past us in chips, suddenly we don't need them anymore? There's a better way to make AI other than buying so many chips, then their earnings are going to crash. And maybe Nvidia is actually trading at 200 times next year's earnings. We don't know yet. We just know in hindsight and so forth. But to your point, that's exactly the way to look at it. And I would say, stepping back from it, we're still pretty early in terms of time in this wave. We're only a couple of years in for it's really getting going. And so maybe it's 1997 as opposed to late 1999, I don't know. And that's one thing. I mean, one of the things I'm trying to figure out is, okay, Nvidia's edge, how long do they keep that? And the reason the deep seek announcement was so unsettling and by the way, Nvidia stock has crashed and not recovered since then, is that they seem to have figured out a way to produce similar quality technology without the chips and then you have a lot of people coming back and saying, oh no, they bought them or they're using them in Vietnam or Jefferson's paradox. Yeah, exactly, exactly. But that's why Nvidia is not recovered, is because people don't believe that.
- [27:48]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah. And of course now people are also talking about Huawei getting significantly better and their chips could be close, maybe one generation behind. So the prospect of further deep seek moments, so to speak, is certainly out there. And of course that could also threaten OpenAI's valuation, just given how much, you know, I mean they're, you know, Deepseek is open source. And whether you can actually monetize that AI edge that they have, presuming they still have an AI edge. Lots of questions. I'm going to throw a different curveball into the conversation. So you mentioned Elon, mentioned Amazon. Jeff Bezos was an investor in Insider, correctly. I don't know if you ever talk to those guys anymore or whatever. Elon, obviously the most public face of techs, you know, warming towards Trump. Trump and Bezos to some extent. He was at the inauguration too. I've asked this question to others and I still don't what happened? Not like is it wrong or right or whatever. What changed in tech from your perspective? Such that these people who were extraordinarily successful under the sort of existing way we think about economics and politics, that they felt compelled to throw their support to varying degrees by someone who at a minimum, setting aside his success, really wants to change the system. Where did that come from, do you think?
- [29:11]
Henry Blodgett
I think it's a great question. I've spent a lot of time actually looking into that and talking to people and trying to figure it out. And what I've been struck by is the level of personal anger involved. Even after the election, after President Trump won, there were what I would describe as victory lapse taken by some very powerful and influential folks in Silicon Valley. And even then you could just hear seething anger and desire for payback. And I think it's a few things. One, I do think the Biden administration did not do a good job of making the technology industry writ large. And again, this is one of the United States most powerful, successful industries. We have led the world not feel even a little bit appreciated. In fact, the whole anti billionaire rhetoric where we got to get the pitchforks and so forth, it's all bad Biden administration, you know, do you really need to diss Tesla back then and Elon Musk when he was clearly waffling at that point?
- [30:14]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, and also when we're in a period of we are saying that EVs are an existential part of America's and.
- [30:19]
Henry Blodgett
Not even invited to the conference or what it was. So, so I think that was part of it. I do think the, for lack of a better way to describe it, the woke wave and Silicon Valley companies feeling like they were being there were attempted takeovers by the employees over the CEOs. I think there's a clapback effect there. And then I think there's just a purely financial calculation which is, look, we have a job to, we got to look out for our companies and our investors and so forth. And listen, this administration, referring to the Biden administration, is way too much regulation and process and they clearly don't like what we do. And, and at that point, ironically, most people in business did think that the Trump administration would be a pro business administration and for a day it looked that way and now it does not. In fact, it looks like the most anti United States business administration in anybody's memory hundreds of years. So I think that's where it came from. And I also, look, Silicon Valley also has an inherent knee jerk contrarianism and I think that was at play also too, too. It's like, oh, everybody thinks something, then why are they wrong? And what's the other way of doing it? But I also do think it is shifting back now, not to the point where anybody who supported President Trump publicly or campaigned for him or whatever is recanting. In fact, when that comes up, it's always, oh, and look at the alternative. We are. This universe is so much better. But I will say they're saying it a little bit less enthusiastically than they.
- [31:50]
Tracy Alloway
Were a month ago, a little less loudly, I guess.
- [31:53]
Henry Blodgett
And I'm starting to hear, well, you know, maybe the tariffs, maybe it was good that we're highlighting the problem with.
- [32:00]
Tracy Alloway
China, but they're like, it's an expensive media campaign.
- [32:03]
Henry Blodgett
Could there have been a better way to do it? Could you have actually had a long term plan and could you have phased it in so you didn't go and punch American companies in the mouth along with consumers? Is there something behind the trade war? Because in the beginning, remember, it was all just, hey, he's negotiating, he's shooting from the hip. They're going to be on their knees in the office tomorrow morning. I don't hear that much anymore. And I think actually folks who had thought that President Trump is a, quote, free trader are actually realizing, no, actually the guy who loves tariffs, you can't.
- [32:37]
Joe Weisenthal
Defend that one, he's been talking about terrorists for 40 years. You can't defend.
- [32:40]
Henry Blodgett
He loves terrorists. And so I do hear that, and I do hear fears that the longer this lasts, it might have really lasting impact. And so I think it's coming around.
- [32:52]
Tracy Alloway
So I assume you're still connected to a bunch of startups and founders and you're working on your own new thing right now. What's the funding environment like at the moment? Are you seeing people that uncertainty around policy start to feed into funding for, you know, things that potentially are not at all directly related to manufacturing or tariffs?
- [33:13]
Henry Blodgett
I don't know what's happened in the last month in the venture market, especially the second year for series A and so forth. My guess is the early investing is pretty much fine as long as the capital is there. A company that has a small valuation, that's probably there. But usually where you see it is in series A, series B, series C, because venture capitalists are very tied to the exits. One of the real problems in venture capital for the last really five, ten years it's been the IPO market has been so sclerotic, you have to be a colossal company. And so that's why a lot of companies have looked for exits. But I will say that one of the big problems with waging a trade war this way, where literally overnight you decouple two economies that are deeply interlinked, is that it is impossible for companies to plan. And, and Apple is a very good example. They spent decades building a world class global supply chain that benefited the entire world, including the United States consumers. We get these amazing iPhones for the price we get them for. And to effectively say, guys, you gotta put that supply chain on a ship and get it to Texas by tomorrow morning is just not gonna happen. And so Apple is doing what any intelligent company would do, which is saying, you know, look, I do think that this, there's going to be this long term pressure to decouple from China. We need to diversify a little bit for a lot of reasons. So what do they do? Do they move I production for the United States back to the United States? They do not. They move to India, which someone will spike the football and say that's exactly what we wanted to happen. India's a friend, China's an enemy. I will appall most of odd lot's listeners by saying that I actually do not believe that China is an enemy. And I liked the fact, I don't.
- [35:06]
Joe Weisenthal
Know if that's appalling to our listener.
- [35:08]
Henry Blodgett
I actually liked the Fact that our economies were super integrated. And yes, the trade relationship is unfair. And yes, there are a lot of things that America and the allies it used to have, could have done to bring China to the table and make it fair and open up the markets. But United States companies did a hell of a lot of business in China and still do. And that is now at risk along with our metals and everything else. And by the way, again, I understand from a political perspective the virtue of having an enemy. It's very easy. We'll divide the world. It's us versus them. But the more we are enemies to me, the more risk we're eventually going to actually end up in a real war. Not just that. I like the interlinkedness. We live in a globalized, integrated economy, I think imagining that the United States can suddenly just decouple itself and we're thrilled. I think what's going to happen is the rest of the world's going to knit together and go on without us. And so even going back to the premise for the trade war, I have.
- [36:09]
Joe Weisenthal
Issues, just to be clear, I don't think there is no odd lots house view on anything, let alone our listeners. I think if there is something closed, it's actually quite a bit of.
- [36:19]
Henry Blodgett
Well, what I will say is odd lots if we think the same way, that's terrific. What I hear when I talk to some of my friends who are really plugged in is, oh, my God, listen. Oh, you are the most naive human in America. How can you not understand that this is not a gladiatorial fight to the death and China is our enemy and we must sock it to them. I just simply do not think about it.
- [36:45]
Joe Weisenthal
That's interesting.
- [36:46]
Henry Blodgett
Is a cooperative activity. It's like a potluck dinner.
- [36:50]
Joe Weisenthal
This is a good. So I would say if there is something close to a house view, which there is no house view, it's a certain admiration, high level of admiration for what's been accomplished technologically in China and economically over the last several decades. And not a gladiatorial sense, but there are areas where it creates risk. But I do get the impression, especially in dc, that this is. Look, this idea of us versus China, it's gotta be the most bipartisan view that there is in the world. You would say in your circles and tech and media that's shared that view.
- [37:24]
Henry Blodgett
Absolutely. And Ezra Klein and Tom Friedman of the New York Times have a great podcast about this. Tom Friedman's written about this. And another guy who's very outspoken from the Silicon Valley community About it is Bill Gurley, formerly a benchmark, who basically say this idea that we're going to beat China in AI and we're going to win the AI war, it's crazy, it's not gonna happen. And that's the real message from Deep Seq. And here we have all of this plotting, like how can we keep the Nvidia chips away from China? We gotta maintain our advantage and so forth. Meanwhile, all these companies suddenly appear in Vietnam and everywhere else that Lo and Hold have huge data centers filled with Nvidia chips that anybody can use and so forth. And we've gotta now agree we're gonna send them the less powerful chips, although even President Trump's now thrown that out, costing Nvidia investors $5 billion a year. I just think again, the more integrated our economies are, the better. I do think the best way to approach the China imbalances, and they are real, would have been to get together with Europe and a lot of other countries in Asia and say, hey guys, we love working with you, but you gotta change a few things, you gotta open the markets a little bit and so forth. And I just, I think one thing I hope that everybody in Washington and I think Wall street tends to have a much more clear eyed view of it is listen, China is going to be much bigger and more powerful than the United States. They are. That's okay. We BMW past Europe 75 years ago. You know what? People still live in Europe, they still have culture, they have good lives, they have good jobs. And you know what? We're not fighting them, they're not fighting us because we got more powerful. So I think the United States has got to get over this idea that we rule the world forever and we gotta keep down China. China, I mean, look at it as a human being. 25 years ago, poverty in China was appalling for hundreds of millions of people and they have now moved out of product.
- [39:31]
Joe Weisenthal
It's an extraordinary company.
- [39:32]
Henry Blodgett
That is a good thing, not a bad thing. It's a good thing. And the richer countries get, the less likely they are to defend themselves with missiles and so forth. So I just think we should step back and look at this idea that's been created and as you say, extraordinarily bipartisan in D.C. in particular, that China is going to be our enemy forever. We got to beat them. We're not going to beat them. It's not going to happen. But we can still take care of our own security, build amazing companies, get richer, have a remarkable country and coexist and Work with China. That's my view and you can tell me. Most naive guy, I like it.
- [40:07]
Joe Weisenthal
I like it.
- [40:23]
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Henry Blodgett
It could crash.
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- [41:24]
Bloomberg Audio Studios
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- [41:53]
Tracy Alloway
Can I go back to one of the disclaimers in the intro? Not about Joe, the other one about you being sort of excommunicated from Wall Street. And part of that was based on. Well, all of it was based on research from the tech bubble, right? And as a consequence of the tech bubble, we saw lots of new regulation around how analysts can actually publish research and Chinese walls in investment banks and things like that. Looking back on what was published back then versus what's being published now on AI, do you see similarities? Do you see improvements as a result of some of those measures taken in the early 2000s?
- [42:33]
Henry Blodgett
I think that. Well, stepping back, yes, thank you for bringing up my excommunication. Still just a mortifying episode to me. And I am so grateful to you too. And, and there's so many other people in the last 25 years who've given me this second chance and so forth. And you know, I learned a ton about that process. Elliot Spitzer was the guy who went after me, obviously and everybody, we had our own thing afterwards, you know, and suddenly he had his own troubles. And then I was on his show and he was on my show. And life goes on. We even had lunch together at one point. So life goes on. But a very much a learning experience. And by the way. Cause we talked about bubbles earlier. That is the final feature of these episodes. John Kenneth Galbraith has written about this. Where there's a huge backlash against the folks who were sort of held up as being the geniuses and doing really well. And that's how the society moves on and so forth. So anyway, I wish I hadn't been in the middle of that, but I was and so forth. And it's too bad because I love Wall Street. But anyway, you look at research, I tell you what, I think the biggest thing that has been lost, that sucks. And it's not actually research. It's the fact that we don't have an IPO material market anymore. And my view at the time and now is that the more opportunities investors have, the better. And early stage tech IPOs are highly risky. Most of them end up going out of business. People lose their shirts and so forth. But I don't think that necessarily the job of the public market is to make it impossible for investors to lose their shirts. I think actually it is to create a range of options. We had this amazing. The public markets in the 1990s were terrific. You could raise a lot of money and so forth. Now by the time you go public, the vast majority of the gains have already been grabbed by professional investors. And so smaller investors can't even get at them. So I would say that I think the IPO market back then was better. And I think the discipline of, of a company going public is good. Bill Gurley's talked a lot about this. So I think that's too bad that we've lost that. And I think in research, I don't look back in the 1990s, analysts were asked to do lots of different jobs. There were articles in the Wall Street Journal all the way along. Analysts wear two hats. They write about stocks and they also talk to companies about raising money. And the companies have to like them or of course, they would never choose the firm to take them to the company. So analysts were in a position where they were doing a lot. And I would say as an analyst now, okay, fine, now it's just right about stocks and talk to investors and so forth. But interestingly, one of the big things that was cited as proof that there was some deep corruption in research, which I do not believe there was, was that so many of the ratings were positive, so many of the ratings are still positive. And you know what? There are a lot of reasons for that. One, analysts only cover the companies that they like. Generally, nobody likes a bear. You go out and just insult a company all day. You know, what are you doing? And when the markets are going up, especially in a sector like this, most stocks go up. So there are a lot of reasons for it that have something to do with something else. And it's just been interesting to watch. That really hasn't changed that much.
- [45:50]
Joe Weisenthal
In a way, it feels like we kind of have the worst of both worlds with early stage investing, because we don't have the sort of companies going public when they're young. But I keep seeing you see them on the subway like these ads, like invest in private companies through an app. And it's like you're not getting any information. You have no idea what valuations you're getting at. And so they're finding these ways to suck in retail money because they're attracted to these ideas of. Or buy SpaceX on the secondary market with no 10Qs or anything. So in a way, it feels like the sort of worst of both worlds in terms of the public's access to early stage companies.
- [46:29]
Henry Blodgett
That is totally right. And in fact, when I first saw the first one of those go by in some feed or email, I was like, oh, you can invest in this new organic wine company where there's no booze and so forth or whatever it happens to be. I was like, whoa. I had the same reaction that Gordon Gekko had when he got out of jail in the second Wall street movie where he's like, my God, all this stuff is legal now. So it's legal. And you're right, it's terrible, all this secondary trading where you have no idea what the company's financials are and you have no idea what the capital stack looks like and how much preferred stock is piled on top of the crappy common stock that you're buying from some employee. You have no idea. So, yes, I think we're much better off in the world where it's just out there. And by the way, 95% of investors shouldn't go anywhere near early stage tech idea IPOs ever, no matter how much money your friends are making, making. But there's a difference. Yeah, this is hard, but there's a difference between having a choice like that and just preventing it. And unfortunately, that's where we are. And I just don't think it's. The financing pipes have rerouted, Companies are getting money. That's great. But I think having a little bit more ability to go public earlier would be great.
- [47:46]
Joe Weisenthal
There's so much we could talk about and we could, you know, we could. We haven't talked at all about the media business in part because, like, I don't know, it's a little navel gazing, et cetera. We could take that in a million different directions. But I just have a simple question. Could you start a Business Insider today? So in Business Insider, I think started 2006 or it was Ally Insider, now it's 2025. What's different today that either you could or you couldn't make that bet.
- [48:13]
Henry Blodgett
I think you could make it, I think far less likely to be successful. Because if you look at a media business, there are two pieces to it. There's the editorial and there's the distribution. And really what the Internet did and what enabled some new companies for a while, a lot of new companies, but some new companies to grab hold in a way that would have been much more difficult before is distribution got completely blown up. Yeah, you look at newspapers, you look at cable, you look at all these different legacy media businesses, they were all protected by the technology of the time. Internet blew all of that up. And very importantly, it created eight hours during the workday where you were between the morning newspaper and the TV evening news where lots of cool things were happening. Hey, you want to know what's happening? And suddenly you have on your desktop Business Insider and Silicon Alley Insider was telling what's going on. And by the way, you have 432 websites that are reporting different things. It's very convenient to have it all brought into one place for you, especially if it's adding analysis. It's like having a TV host or it's like having you guys, but at your convenience on a website. So we early on had a lot of people addicted to that. You couldn't build that today because the web has been completely deprecated in terms of its influence. Everything has moved to apps. We're much more in a world where the media distribution looks much more like what it did in the TV and paper days, where it's controlled distribution, shelf space matters. You don't have very much. And so now the big new companies that are being built are being built with direct distribution like email and app and so forth. And that's how my own media consumption has shifted. I was a huge die hard web guy.
- [49:58]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, me too.
- [49:59]
Henry Blodgett
And now it's just with the paywall situation, which is brutal. Like, you've got to sign into every site on every platform. It's infuriating. It's much easier to just go to the app. So things have changed. So. So the original model for Business Insider would not have worked. I do hope new models work and business insiders do very well. So proud of them. Very hard to come through this period and survive. And we are.
- [50:20]
Joe Weisenthal
By the way, Tracy, when I was hired at Business Insider, the name of the vertical that I originally worked for, been going 50 minutes without saying it. There's the name that shall not go mentioned, clusterstock.com.
- [50:33]
Tracy Alloway
This is how I used to link to your work. I wrote for Joe Weisenthal at Cluster Stop.
- [50:39]
Joe Weisenthal
Henry Blodgett, thank you so much for coming on. Odd lot could talk for a long time. Very excited.
- [50:44]
Henry Blodgett
Let me just add one more. This goes back, and this is like a little special bonus. Tracy asked this.
- [50:50]
Joe Weisenthal
Oh, yes, please.
- [50:50]
Henry Blodgett
What is it about Joe W. Like, what is it? So I'll tell you.
- [50:54]
Joe Weisenthal
Two headphones.
- [50:55]
Henry Blodgett
One. Tracy, when you're trying to build a startup, what has been described as hustle culture and since insulted as hustle culture, as we have this big backlash to work, life, balance and oppressive bosses and all other stuff, it actually really matters. You are running for your life. And the way Jeff Bezos described it to me after he invested was, you know, you guys have effectively created this little flame that you hold in the palm of your hand, and that is a huge accomplishment. Like, you've created fire out of nothing, but all around you, the winds are blowing. There are these huge forces that are threatening to snuff it out, like nurture that flame, protect it, make it grow. Eventually, it's a fire. So to do that, you actually need people who are totally dedicated. And Joe was extraordinarily dedicated. We had a team of a few folks who are around Joe's age who really made Business Insider possible because they were so into it. And then the other Joe Wasenthal attribute that I think has contributed to Outlaws becoming the thing that everybody has to listen to and so forth, is Joe has a remarkable ability to inspire other people to get excited about the way he sees the world and to work with him.
- [52:22]
Tracy Alloway
And so the lines moving on the.
- [52:23]
Henry Blodgett
Chart to the point where, yes, the New York Times, famously, back in those early days, wrote a profile of Joe Weisenthal which one could have interpreted as, this poor man is insane and he's going to drop dead. And this sounds like hell on Earth, which is like 24 hours a day, eye twitching, waiting for the jobs report, all that stuff. But instead, Joe turned it into this incredible positive. And everyone's like, oh, my God, I wanna not only be like Joe, I want to work with Joe, and so forth. And I think your audience feels that enthusiasm. One of the things you used to say to me a lot, which I loved, was, everything is interesting.
- [53:06]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
- [53:06]
Henry Blodgett
And people, like, try to find the one thing that's interesting, like when you really dive in. And so you've taught yourself all about markets and so forth.
- [53:13]
Tracy Alloway
So anyway, this is actually the foundation of odd lots. Everything can be interesting.
- [53:17]
Joe Weisenthal
So we gotta stop. I can't hear anymore. All right, we're good. We're good. Thank you very much. I'm just gonna say, I don't know how many people I've told this. I don't know if I've told you, Henry. I've told my therapist only there were weekends in, like, 2010 and 2011. This is true. Where I would, like, wake up on a Saturday. This is. I mean, this is like real disturbed, unbalanced stuff. And something I think is I couldn't have had children in those years. I know I had children later. It had been really hard. And I would, like, wake up and I almost don't want to say this. I'd like one, like, punch a pillow. Because it was, like, so intense. I need to get that out. And a few times I started typing emails to you because I was, like, so, like, upset. And then I was like, oh, actually, I have nothing to be upset about. Like, there was nothing specific. It was just like. Anyway, very intense times and difficult times, but rewarding times.
- [54:05]
Henry Blodgett
Yeah.
- [54:05]
Joe Weisenthal
There was nothing wrong. But there was nothing wrong. It was just like this was like this sort of hot house. I. Wait, it's too much.
- [54:11]
Henry Blodgett
No, no. Could you bring up a good point and maybe odd lots listeners interested in this too. Like we have in the past five, seven years. Yeah. There's been this huge backlash.
- [54:19]
Joe Weisenthal
This is what I'm getting into that. Because it was, like, sort of damaging.
- [54:23]
Henry Blodgett
And, you know, oppressive businesses and these terrible, soulless jobs and so forth. And what I will say is. And I think you saw too, I've seen it in my own life a lot. Is that actually work can be incredibly therapeutic when you can find something that you can dive into. Yeah. It becomes flow state. Not to the point where it's totally obsessive and you're stressed all the time. That's terrible.
- [54:43]
Joe Weisenthal
I guess all I meant to say was it was necessary. And I get the backlash is what I was.
- [54:48]
Henry Blodgett
Absolutely.
- [54:49]
Joe Weisenthal
It was a necessary energy.
- [54:50]
Henry Blodgett
Too much.
- [54:51]
Joe Weisenthal
And I get the backlash. Anyway, Henry Blodgett, thank you so much for coming on odd lots.
- [54:55]
Henry Blodgett
It's such a privilege to be here with you. You guys do a great job, and I will keep listening.
- [55:00]
Joe Weisenthal
Thank you so much, Tracy. I'm sort of like a little emotionally rattled after that episode in a way I usually don't get after recording our typical podcast, I have to admit.
- [55:23]
Tracy Alloway
Do you think you impressed your old boss? I think you did.
- [55:26]
Joe Weisenthal
I think so. I think he's proud. I think I, you know. Yes. Do I still have this really intense memories of trying to surpass traffic goals and things like that from those years? Absolutely. And I think that sits in my mind still today when I look at podcast download numbers or the Apple business charts and stuff like that.
- [55:46]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah. And also, I mean, I take the point that if you're a startup, you're running towards a proverbial finish line that actually never really comes. And so there's a sense of urgency, but it's. It's working at that was clearly unsustainable. Right. Unhealthy.
- [56:02]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, as I said, I couldn't have had children.
- [56:03]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah. Well, I was going to say it locks a certain proportion of the population out of working for that particular market, which is 100%.
- [56:13]
Joe Weisenthal
100%. 100%. You know, Tracy, you mentioned that Henry sort of speaks in Business Insider headlines. Business Insider headlines turned out to be very influential to headlines all over the place. And so talking to Henry, it is sort of like seeing where to some extent, like, modern media came from. I mean, there were like a handful of these, you know, buzzfeed was obviously another one. Et cetera. Gawker, we've talked to Nick Denton. There are a handful of these, like, really important media brands of that era that to this day, like, their own influence right now probably diminished, but their influence more broadly on how like, like, you know, reporting, et cetera, evolved is clearly evident to this day.
- [56:59]
Tracy Alloway
Well, Henry's been influential in a number of ways. Right. Like, not just on media, but he ended up being very influential on Wall street as well.
- [57:07]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, absolutely.
- [57:07]
Tracy Alloway
And we talked a little bit about that. You know what we should do once this episode publishes? We should look at the transcript and just pick out, like, every sentence that could be a bi headline.
- [57:17]
Joe Weisenthal
A bi headline.
- [57:18]
Tracy Alloway
I bet you'd get, like, dozens, if not hundreds.
- [57:21]
Joe Weisenthal
That should be one of our newsletters when this comes out. I think that would actually be really fun.
- [57:25]
Tracy Alloway
All right. Shall we leave it there?
- [57:26]
Joe Weisenthal
Let's leave it there.
- [57:27]
Tracy Alloway
This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
- [57:32]
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Henry blodgett. He's at Hblodgett. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmenarman, Dash O'Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kalebrooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots we have all of our episodes in a daily daily newsletter and you can chat about all of these topics 24. 7 in our Discord, Discord, GG Oddlots.
- [57:58]
Tracy Alloway
And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk to Joe's old bosses, please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions that there. Thanks for listening.
- [58:48]
Bloomberg Audio Studios
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