How Oaktree's Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

Podcast Summary: Odd Lots – "How Oaktree's Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble"

Introduction

In this episode of Bloomberg's "Odd Lots," hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracee Alloway engage in a compelling conversation with Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management. Released on January 27, 2025, the episode delves into Marks' expertise in identifying market bubbles, drawing from his extensive experience and historical insights. The discussion provides listeners with a deep understanding of market dynamics, behavioral indicators of bubbles, and strategic investment approaches.

Historical Context: The 1990s and the Dot-Com Bubble

Howard Marks begins by reflecting on the investment landscape of the 1990s, describing it as a "placid period" for credit investors. He highlights the exceptional performance of the stock market during this decade, noting, “the best decade in history, I think, for stocks. And The S&P 500 rose an average of 20% a year for 10 years, which is an astronomical, an astronomical accomplishment” ([02:28]).

Marks contrasts this period with the TMT (Tech, Media, and Telecom) bubble, often referred to as the Internet bubble, which peaked around 1998-2000. He emphasizes that while the decade was generally calm, significant events like the devaluation of the Russian ruble and the meltdown of Long Term Capital Management introduced volatility, albeit in isolated instances ([02:44]).

The "Bubble.com" Memo: Recognizing Excessive Market Conditions

A central theme of the conversation revolves around Marks' "bubble.com" memo, published on January 2, 2000. When Tracee Alloway inquires about the memo's timing and content, Marks clarifies, “it does not predict the bubble and it does not say the market's going to collapse. All it did is describe the current conditions” ([07:48]). He distinguishes between forecasting and describing market conditions, asserting that understanding "where we are" is crucial for informed investment decisions.

Marks shares his approach to assessing market conditions, emphasizing the importance of patience and the recognition that predictions are inherently uncertain. He recalls, “in the investment business, there's no place for certainty...you should never be certain that you're right” ([05:18]). This philosophy underscores his meticulous method of evaluating market behaviors rather than relying solely on numerical data.

Behavioral Indicators vs. Numerical Metrics

When discussing the identification of market bubbles, Marks differentiates between numerical indicators and behavioral or cultural markers. He states, “99%, what you called cultural markers... and 1% math” ([11:03]). According to Marks, behavior plays a more significant role in signaling market extremes. He references his "Poor Man's Guide to Market Assessment," which categorizes behaviors to assess the market's temperature—whether it’s too hot or too cold ([14:14]).

Marks elaborates on how behavioral signs, such as widespread optimism and the dismissal of caution, are more telling of a bubble than elevated PE ratios alone. He explains that during true bubbles, there's a "willing suspension of disbelief," where investors ignore traditional risk assessments in favor of the fear of missing out (FOMO) ([27:25]).

Current Market Conditions: AI and Tech Enthusiasm

Transitioning to the present, Marks assesses the current market climate, particularly the fervor surrounding AI-related stocks. He observes that while numerical indicators like elevated PE ratios in the S&P 500 suggest high valuations, the behavioral aspects indicative of a bubble are not fully present. Marks remarks, “I just don't see those psychological or behavioral aspects today” ([31:00]).

He compares the current AI boom to the dot-com era, cautioning against unbridled optimism. Marks points out that excessive enthusiasm without substantial behavioral signs may not yet constitute a bubble. However, he advises vigilance, warning against "lottery thinking," where investors bet on high-risk ventures with the hope of massive returns ([32:03]).

Strategic Investment Approaches: Offensive and Defensive Positions

Marks discusses the strategic axis of aggressive versus defensive investment behaviors. He explains that an investor's typical stance should align with their personal risk tolerance and financial goals. However, he also advocates for adjusting this stance based on evolving market conditions. Marks shares his experience during the 2008 financial crisis, where proactive measures and prepared "dry powder" allowed Oaktree to capitalize on distressed debt opportunities when others were retreating ([45:47]).

He emphasizes the importance of having committed capital ready for investment during downturns, highlighting the success of Oaktree’s approach in raising substantial funds in anticipation of market shifts. Marks states, “we had commitments, we were sure we could draw and so we could plunge in” ([45:47]).

The Aftermath of Bubbles and Industry Evolution

Reflecting on past market crashes, Marks explains how the bursting of the Nifty 50 bubble led to significant changes in the financial industry. The experience demonstrated that even traditionally "safe" investments could result in substantial losses, prompting a shift towards more diversified and risk-aware investment strategies. Marks underscores that successful investing is less about selecting inherently good assets and more about purchasing assets at fair prices relative to their risk ([44:29]).

He also touches upon recent developments, such as the "Sea Change" memo, which discusses the end of the era of ultra-low interest rates and the transition to a more stable, higher-rate environment. Marks notes that this shift has profound implications for borrowing costs and investment strategies, indicating that the full impact is yet to be felt in the broader economy ([49:49]).

Conclusion

The episode offers a rich exploration of Howard Marks' insights into market bubbles, blending historical analysis with contemporary market evaluations. Marks' emphasis on behavioral indicators over purely numerical metrics provides a nuanced framework for investors seeking to navigate complex financial landscapes. His experiences and strategic approaches underscore the importance of preparedness, adaptability, and disciplined investment practices in the face of evolving market conditions.

Notable Quotes

"The best decade in history, I think, for stocks. And The S&P 500 rose an average of 20% a year for 10 years, which is an astronomical, an astronomical accomplishment." — Howard Marks ([02:44])
"In the investment business, there's no place for certainty. And Mark Twain said, it ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for certain that just ain't true." — Howard Marks ([05:18])
"99%, what you called cultural markers... and 1% math." — Howard Marks ([11:03])
"A bubble is a temporary mania in which people are so agog at things that they throw over all discipline, all caution." — Howard Marks ([27:25])
"The real hallmark of a bubble is when people say it's so great... there's no price too high." — Howard Marks ([31:00])
"Successful investing doesn't come from buying good things, but from buying things well." — Howard Marks ([45:47])
"We never know where we're going, but we sure as hell ought to know where we are." — Howard Marks ([07:48])

Final Thoughts

Joe Weisenthal and Tracee Alloway effectively navigate a deep and insightful discussion with Howard Marks, extracting valuable lessons on market behavior, investment strategy, and the identification of bubbles. For investors and enthusiasts alike, this episode serves as a crucial guide to understanding the delicate balance between market enthusiasm and prudent investment practices.