Odd Lots Podcast Summary

Episode: Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run

Hosts: Joe Weisenthal (B), Tracy Alloway (C)
Guest: Jeff Currie (D), Partner at Carlisle, former Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities
Date: January 30, 2026

Overview

This episode focuses on the explosive rally in metals prices—gold, silver, and copper hitting all-time highs—and explores the underlying drivers with renowned commodities expert Jeff Currie. The discussion dives into the unique convergence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and structural factors propelling metals markets, the thesis of a long-running commodity supercycle, and the potential implications and risks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Historic Surges in Metals Prices

[00:42–01:42]

• All-time highs: gold > $5,500/oz, silver > $120/oz, copper > $14,400/ton.
• Traditional roles:
  • Copper: "the ultimate industrial metal"
  • Gold: "the ultimate metal with no industrial uses"—a store of value
  • Silver: straddles both, with industrial and safe-haven demand.
• Unique aspect: All three surging together, defying usual economic signaling.

"It's interesting to see, like, why are they all flying at the exact same time?"
—Joe Weisenthal, [01:11]

Jeff Currie’s “Peak” View: Not Even Close

[03:25–03:47]

• Currie dismisses the idea that we’re at a market peak:

  "I love that we're in the foothills of the Himalayas right now, so we're not even close to the real mountain peaks yet."
  —Jeff Currie, [03:38]

Drivers Behind the Metal Rally

[03:47–06:17]

• Critical Distinction:
  • Atomic-number elements (metals) are rallying—includes nickel, zinc.
  • Molecules with carbon (e.g. hydrocarbons, carbohydrates) are lagging (oil, corn, wheat).
• Central narrative:
  • Hoarding: Stockpiling from fears over critical mineral supply.
  • Key “3 D’s”:
    • Debasement (fear of fiat currency erosion)
    • De-dollarization (EMs diversifying away from US dollar assets following Russian sanctions in 2022)
    • Diversity (portfolio move away from dollar-based assets; into metals)
• Geopolitics:
  • US, EU, and China weaponizing commodities, prompting widespread stockpiling.
  • Chinese public hoarding silver, driving domestic premiums.

"What's going on in the metal space is hoarding, given the concerns over having availability of these critical minerals... Debasement, de-dollarization and diversity is what's driving all of these different metals."
—Jeff Currie, [04:47]

Central Bank & Chinese Demand for Metals

[06:17–10:18]

• China & Emerging Markets:
  • Offloading Western (potentially-freezable) assets in favor of metals, especially gold.
  • Central bank gold reserves still well below historical highs; more buying expected.
• Silver’s Role in China:
  • Dual status as critical mineral (solar PV, electrification) and affordable store of value.
  • Hoarding driven both by industrial need and accessibility for the population.

"The key message is there's still a lot more buying by central banks to diversify themselves out of dollars."
—Jeff Currie, [06:54]

"Silver is critical for the industrial base of China, given the importance of solar panels... Also, even at $120 an ounce, it’s still very affordable... as a store of value."
—Jeff Currie, [09:25]

The “Supercycle” and the Asset ‘Re-rating’

[10:18–15:20]

• Currie reframes the 'Supercycle' as a global capex cycle—an era of major physical investment:
  • Defense, AI, data centers, energy transition (all require metals)
  • Example: Expected $9 trillion in European defense spending over a decade, “not even counting” AI/data centers.
• Capital Rotation:
  • Historically, a move from “asset-light” (software, brands) to “asset-heavy” (commodities, manufacturing) triggers violent, lasting price re-ratings.
  • This time, even technology “hyperscalers” are becoming asset-heavy (building data centers, energy infrastructure).
• Implication:
  • Return-seeking capital is starting (slowly) to migrate to commodities, but the process is early—prices may surge as catch-up accelerates.

"We're moving into one of these repricing towards asset heavy industries, which is why it will ultimately be sustainable across the entire commodity complex."
—Jeff Currie, [12:20]

"The asset light space this time is moving into the asset heavy space and putting steel in the ground. So this is going to be a real violent transition."
—Jeff Currie, [15:00]

Supercycle Duration and Policy as the Driver

[19:08–23:40]

• Historical precedent: Past supercycles lasted ~12 years (1970s, 2000s).
• Current cycle likely started in 2020.
• Policy is the main catalyst:
  • War on free trade/deglobalization—governments restrict access, driving duplication and self-sufficiency.
  • Decarbonization (energy transition) is now security-driven as much as “green”
  • Redistribution/war on inequality—fiscal transfers stoke commodity demand.

"All of these things are all policy driven. The one in the 70s was due to the LBJ's war on poverty, the big defense spending... Here the policy decision is the war on free trade."
—Jeff Currie, [20:56]

"I would say this one started in 2020 ... but those easy fixes are not going to be available next time around. So this one’s going to take longer than normal."
—Jeff Currie, [19:25]

Social and Demographic Demand for Commodities

[23:40–25:17]

• Inflation/commodities demand is heavily driven by low-income groups: Fiscal transfers, redistribution stoke physical goods consumption (corn, metals).

"All inflation is a wealth transfer between the high income groups and the low income groups and then they go out and spend it [on commodities]."
—Jeff Currie, [24:05]

Why Supply Won’t Adjust Quickly

[25:17–29:16]

• Mining & processing capacity can’t be ramped easily (NIMBY, environmental constraints).
• China dominates minerals processing because the West farmed out toxic processes decades ago; onshoring will be slow, expensive.
• Price action: The supercycle will be “a bubbling cauldron” of repeated price spikes and volatility, not a smooth upward ride.

"If you didn't like it in the 70s, you're still not going to like it today. So it's not something that can be resolved overnight. It's going to take a long time."
—Jeff Currie, [26:55]

"Much higher levels of volatility... a bubbling cauldron of supply and demand imbalances."
—Jeff Currie, [28:54]

The Catch-up in Capital Flows and Market Underweight

[30:03–33:34]

• Supply is a capital access issue, not just physical quantity.
• Most investment funds are still underweight asset-heavy sectors; as they rotate in, moves may be dramatic.
• Metal & mining market caps are minuscule versus tech behemoths—plenty of room for inflows.

"It's not about the supply and demand of the molecules... It's about the supply and demand of the capital used to create the production. Therein lies the core problem..."
—Jeff Currie, [30:25]

Risks to the Thesis

[33:34–36:15]

• Physical vs. financial markets: Commodities anchored in physical supply/demand—eventually fundamentals win.
• Main risk: Demand-side shocks (i.e., China housing market collapse)—already experienced in '23-24.
• Near-term volatility and investor reluctance may delay but not derail the supercycle.

"The main reason why copper didn't perform in that 23, 24 time frame is we underestimated the severity of the property contraction in China."
—Jeff Currie, [35:52]

Memorable and Notable Moments

• Supercycle Mountain Analogy:

  "We're in the foothills of the Himalayas right now, so we're not even close to the real mountain peaks yet." —Jeff Currie, [03:38]

• The “3Ds” Behind Metals Buying:

  "Debasement, de-dollarization and diversity is what's driving all of these different metals." —Jeff Currie, [04:58]

• Comparing Coke to Microsoft to Google:

  "Asset light in the 60s was Coca Cola... in 2000 it was Microsoft and today it’s Google and the hyperscalers. The asset light space is colliding in the physical space..." —Jeff Currie, [14:16]

• Volatility as a Structural Feature:

  "It’s a bubbling cauldron of supply and demand imbalances... much higher levels of volatility... that volatility then scares investors away." —Jeff Currie, [28:54]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Metals price records and context: [00:42–01:42]
• What’s driving all metals up together: [03:47–06:17]
• China’s pivotal role: [06:17–08:09], [09:25–10:18]
• Supercycle thesis and investment cycles: [11:00–15:20]
• Policy as primary driver: [19:08–23:40]
• Social/fiscal roots of commodity demand: [23:40–25:17]
• Why supply can’t react quickly: [25:53–29:16]
• Volatility, capital flows, and catch-up: [30:03–33:34]
• Risks to supercycle thesis: [33:34–36:15]

Closing Reflections & Fun Moments

• The hosts reflect (with amusement and mild envy) on holding gold and silver coins given recent price surges; Joe jokes about his tungsten cube as his "main exposure" to hard assets.
• The show ends with the idea of doing an episode exploring how to literally sell physical gold/silver in Manhattan.
• Both hosts highlight the intersection of commodity rally and the "war on free trade" as the fundamental, underappreciated dynamic beneath current price action.

Summary Takeaway

Jeff Currie contends we are at the early stages of a multi-year, policy-driven metals supercycle, with compounding forces of deglobalization, energy transition, and income redistribution fueling both structural demand and governmental hoarding. Supply bottlenecks and capital inertia mean spikes and volatility lay ahead, not smooth appreciation. Investors and policymakers alike are caught playing catch-up, and the “old economy” is about to reassert its pricing power after a decade of neglect.

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