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- [00:03]
Lisa Mateo
Hi, I'm Lisa Mateo, introducing you to the new Stock Movers report from Bloomberg. These are short audio reports, five minutes or less, delivered right to your podcast feed. Throughout the day, Stock Movers fills you in on the day's winners and losers on Wall street and tells you about the news and data that's driving those gains and losses. If you want to stay plugged into the stock market but don't want to spend all day watching tickers scroll across your screen, then Stock Movers is a place for to get informed. Listen a couple times throughout the day to find out what's moving equities and why. Search for Stock Movers on Apple podcasts, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. Get the latest stock news and data backed by reporting from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts across the globe. Subscribe to Stock Movers wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:03]
Joe Weisenthal
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:18]
Jeff Schmidt
Hello.
- [01:19]
Tracy Alloway
And welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
- [01:22]
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Joe Weisendahl.
- [01:24]
Tracy Alloway
Joe, it's that time of year again, Jackson.
- [01:26]
Joe Weisenthal
Holy.
- [01:26]
Tracy Alloway
It's my favorite time of year.
- [01:28]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah. So I mean, it's, it's a great time of year anyway, but in, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Come on.
- [01:33]
Tracy Alloway
For many reasons. Okay, so this is the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And they basically get together a bunch of different, you know, Fed presidents, a bunch of different speakers on economic policy, and then everyone geeks out while looking at, at mountains, basically.
- [01:51]
Joe Weisenthal
It's really extraordinary. So this will be the third year that we'll have been there. We are recording this August 18th. But by the time people are listening to this, the event will have just, will be kicking off. It really is extraordinary because you really have the top Mayans in this stuff from truly all around the world. But also it's late summer. People chill, people hike people. People recognize that they're in an amazing location and they would be wasting their time if they just spent the whole time inside talking monetary policy.
- [02:18]
Tracy Alloway
This is true, but I think part of the planning of this event is of, okay, you get everyone out in this really nice place in the wilderness and people are maybe a little bit more forthcoming, maybe a little bit more open to having creative discussions about policy. And it's interesting, you know, you mentioned people talking about, like this year's theme. I have a pop quiz for you, which is do you remember the themes from the last two Jackson Holes that we went to? We've been to. This will be our third.
- [02:45]
Joe Weisenthal
I'M a little embarrassed to say, is monetary policy in a changing world? No, actually, it's a good question.
- [02:51]
Tracy Alloway
You're not that far off, actually. So last year it was reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy. The first Jackson Hole we went to in 2023, that was structural shifts in the global economy. That one, I got to say a little. I could forgive you for forgetting that one. But this year's theme, it just came out, you know, just got announced. So this theme is Labor Markets in Transition, Demographics, Productivity and Macroeconomic. It's a good topic for many reasons. So obviously, you know, the future of AI and its impact on the labor force will certainly fit under that particular thematic umbrella. But also it goes straight into the heart of what a lot of Fed policymakers seem to be discussing right now and arguing. Right.
- [03:34]
Joe Weisenthal
All kinds of things, immigration, aging, etc. How does that bear on the data that we're seeing right now? It's a great topic for both the short term and the long term of monetary policy. So should be a fascinating conference.
- [03:45]
Tracy Alloway
Right. And so on that note, I'm very happy to say we do in fact have the perfect guest. We are going to be speaking with Jeff Schmidt. He is of course the president of, of the Kansas City Fed and responsible for putting on this event every year. So, Jeff, thank you so much for coming on odd lots.
- [04:01]
Jeff Schmidt
Oh, it's my pleasure. It's great to finally meet both of you officially and we follow you quite intently. So it's really great to be on.
- [04:09]
Joe Weisenthal
We're leaving that in.
- [04:10]
Tracy Alloway
That's right. Well, I mean, it is mutual to be fair, because we follow you quite intently. So first of all, let me just extend a personal thanks for putting on an event which allows Joe and I to go to one of the most beautiful places on earth every year. That is truly wonderful for both of us. And then I just going back to the theme for a second. How do you come up with the themes for these events? Every year is there like a brainstorming session and everyone goes into a room and 12 hours later you emerge with some sort of consensus, much like a FOMC meeting, I suppose.
- [04:42]
Jeff Schmidt
But yeah, it's a great Behind Baseball question. And as you can imagine, you know, we're in our 48th year. So every year, you know, immediately after it's over, we get in a room and we talk about what went well, what can we make better. And I really give credit to Joe Gruber. Gruber, our chief economist, and his team. It's probably the most nerve wracking decision that has to be made because you know, Jacksonville will get over in late August and then probably by sometime early the fourth quarter, you're starting to talk about what should we create a theme around for the following year. And so they actually end up deciding on that by the end of the year. And it's nerve wracking because you hope that all the research you've asked these brilliant people to do and present is applicable by August because you know how fast things move in the business and economic world and boy, they are so good at it. And they do think forward about some of the emerging issues that are going to be dealt with. But whether it be with the central bank or with the global economy, and I tell you what, they hit a home run this year because I, I'm, as a economist and Fed president, I'm very interested in the dynamic of demographics, not just nationally, but internationally. There's things going on that you'll hear and will be presented on Friday and Saturday that I think are going to really spur a lot of thinking and a lot of conversation about how demographic behaviors and movements move the workforce and labor force in the US and abroad. So it is, it's a tenuous eight months because you've got, you know, Nobel level economists doing the research and preparing these papers around a topic. And I think this one is really going to hit a really good chord.
- [06:33]
Joe Weisenthal
It is definitely a great topic for right now because of, you know, there's all the questions, you know, and here just I'm talking us specifically. But as you mentioned, it is a global story because there is aging and the effect that that's going to have on the workforce and especially in many advanced economies and non advanced economies, frankly. And then obviously AI is a huge one. And then in the US specifically changing immigration policy and so forth. Just on the inside baseball part a little bit more. Okay, so you establish the team, establishes the theme. How do you then like figure out? It's probably almost anyone, I assume would say yes to an invite to present to Jackson Hole. But how, what is that actual process, like where you identify the presenters that you're looking for?
- [07:15]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah. So here again, as you can imagine, there's a community of economists and researchers both nationally and abroad. While it's a big community, it's pretty connected. And so the team's going to get together and they're going to do a couple things. One is they're going to try to break down maybe inside the topic what are some of the nuances of, because I think we have Four papers that will be released on Friday and Saturday. And so within that topic there's subtopics. And so you're going to have researchers in university settings, you're going to have researchers inside of central banks. And a lot of that community is going to kind of focus itself on certain micro and macro topics. So they have a really good inventory of experts that they'll reach out to. And I would say you're right. I mean, I think in most cases the researchers would really covet the opportunity to do this research and submit the paper. But they're also very thoughtful about it. You know, some will just maybe not take the engagement just because it's not well aligned to the research that they're either doing or they feel they're experts at. But, but by and large it's really a great honor and we, and we typically have a very positive response. The challenge is time. You know, a lot of these things might take a year or two to research, but they have a very tight window once they're asked and they agree. You know, they might have to submit within four or five months. And sometimes when you're talking about a very macro topic, that can be a super big challenge for a researcher.
- [08:53]
Tracy Alloway
So speaking of challenges, why don't we get right into more of that theme, the idea of labor markets in transition. Why don't you go ahead and give us your sort of a high level interest in this particular topic? I guess. How does something like AI, how does something like aging demographics, lower birth rates actually complicate the task of setting monetary policy? Especially when you think about things like the neutral rate of interest. R star. You know, R star is a nebulous concept at the best of times. I can only imagine what it's like trying to estimate R at a time when we're also talking about, you know, AI potentially transforming the way everyone on earth is working.
- [09:33]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah, so let me kind of set the stage for this because I, first of all, my background is I'm a little bit of a hybrid Fed president. So you're going to typically have maybe Fed presidents that are in two different camps. One is going to be the traditional camp of economist, PhD, researcher, scholar, really focusing attention on the monetary policy discussions, relating their background to making good decisions at the policy table with fomc. The second is going to be more in my camp, I'm much more of a practitioner, not a professor of economics. I mean, I've run banks. I've been a bank supervisor with the FDIC early in my career. I've done A little bit of leadership teaching at SMU the last couple of years. But I'll take my banker experiences through my 30 plus years of building banks. The most important part of that is really the workforce of people that you put together. And through that 30 years, to your points, there's really, really two big drivers on the demographic end that, that are of interest to me. One is just the behavioral nature of the labor force generationally, how they're changing, how they use technology. I'm a baby boomer. The 20 to 30 something coming in has a different sense of what the job is and how they're going to be successful at that work. The second thing is just, and there's a very compelling paper that's going to be released on that addresses things like fertility rates. And so that, that's not only a national but that's an international phenomenon is how does, how does the labor force migrate, let's say in the US State to state what drives that migration of labor force and then what's happening in other large labor centric countries where the fertility rates are actually affecting the workforce going forward? I mean China's a really stark example. Japan, India is something, a country I think everybody's really watching relative to how their labor force is maturing, educating, growing. I think all those dynamics are going to play a really important piece to the puzzle of where, where are things going to be made and how our economy is going to, going to grow. Because most economists and people in the markets would argue you've got to have a growing labor force for your economy to grow. And that probably gets to the next observation you made, I think Tracy, and that's how does technology, maybe specifically artificial intelligence weave its way into this conversation? And you'll see some really good arguments about maybe the advent of AI is going to be perfectly timed for the nature of the labor force and how it's shifting. Because overall when you add fertility rates and you add labor market at large, it's pretty static. It's not growing in a big way. Probably the only areas that are growing significantly would be India and maybe the African continent though all those things are going to play into this mix of both national and global labor force.
- [12:57]
Amy Morris
You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now. I'm Amy Morris.
- [13:02]
Karen Moscow
And I'm Karen Moscow. Here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed. Bloomberg News now is a short 5 minute audio report on the day's top stories. Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.
- [13:18]
Amy Morris
Yes, there are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day. That's not what we do. We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News now.
- [13:34]
Karen Moscow
And we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news. When news breaks, we'll have an episode up in your podcast feed within minutes. So you're always getting the latest stories and developments.
- [13:43]
Amy Morris
Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3000 journalists and analysts. We're all over the world. Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News now on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.
- [13:55]
Joe Weisenthal
So speaking of technology, a couple weeks ago we interviewed Fed president Mary Daly. She was talking about the iPhone and for example, that the current iPhone can do so much more than the first iPhone, you know, however many years that go. And then I thought of a follow up question to that, but I forgot to ask her. So I'm like, okay, I'm just gonna ask the next Fed president. So I'm asking you the question that I actually should be asking. Mary Daly. I apologize for the unfairness, but I think this could inform the AI discussion, which is that we have seen already, setting aside AI, these incredible tech advances undeniable, that have changed the world. Right? No one would deny that. And yet measured productivity gains have not been particularly extraordinary. So if you look at like since the first iPhone or the from the pre iPhone era to now, the world's changed dramatically on account of the technology changes and yet productivity, nothing particularly special, at least in the data. And I'm curious, like when you think about the effect of AI, do you have any sort of theory for why that is or why it is that these obvious technological breakthroughs haven't actually moved the dial in some of these important measures?
- [15:05]
Jeff Schmidt
Well, I have some personal thoughts, maybe some observations within the Fed itself, at least with the Kansas City Fed, one is just be patient. You know, a lot of things are happening. I think a lot of this technology is emerging now. Now granted it'll go fast, but the adoption, I mean even I think about the Kansas City Fed itself, you know, getting comfortable with the, what's kind of embedded inside, let's say the AI technology. You know, the thing I worry a lot about is just things like copyright laws, you know, that we're sensitive to using that technology and is it safe for us to use as we try to figure out ways to be more productive inside our bank. From a more macro standpoint, I think everybody's trying to figure out, I would kind of categorize the AI phenomena today as kind of a low fruit to high fruit process. So what everybody's trying to do is say what's the nature of job, of things inside my job that actually can make me more productive, just inherently more productive, Whether it be narrative in a legal brief or let's say taking a bank examination report and trying to download things that would normally take you hours or days to populate an examination report with. I think we're at that kind of crossroads where we're trying to figure out what's the easy low fruit. And then I think over time, I don't know if you're going to get this blast of productivity that all of a sudden it's this moment of epiphany. I think you're gonna, I think it's actually perfectly timed because over time I think you're going to be able to integrate this technology and you're going to figure out where it's best used. Now granted, and people are doing studies on this, there are some jobs that, that I think I'll give Mary Daly credit, she coined the phrase soul sucking jobs. What are the things that people are, let's say more monotonous or boring or move needles that aren't like super interesting and challenging. And I think you're going to see that's going to be the part of the low fruit process, the upper half of the tree. I think you might see some real productivity gains. But, but in the end, when you see shifts in like immigration policy and you see workforces not growing, you're actually going to need to integrate that technology to keep a balance in the supply and demand. I, I think Chair Powell mentioned this in his last conference after the FOMC when he was addressing some of the data that came out in the workforce in the summer and some of the adjustments that while it was a little bit eye opening, we feel like there's a balancing and supply and demand of the labor force today. And it's probably why you're not seeing at least today a major uptick in the unemployment rate. It's kind of rebalancing itself going into the next couple quarters.
- [18:04]
Tracy Alloway
This was going to be exactly my next question. Since you brought up immigration. Why don't you go ahead and tell us what you're seeing in the labor market right now? Because the debate that seems to be emerging is that yes, we've seen these big revisions to payrolls recently, but on the other hand, if we have a lot of people exiting the workforce because they're aging out of it or because of new immigration policies, then maybe that break even labor rate doesn't really matter as much anymore and we can tolerate it as long as the employment rate stays pretty strong and we are pretty close to full employment levels still. So what are you seeing now? How would you characterize it?
- [18:44]
Jeff Schmidt
So, Tracy, I would say that there was a bit of a convergence of things in the first and second quarter. So when we talk about being data dependent, there's two buckets of data that, that I really focus on. One is the kind of the hard data that's issued by third parties or internally by, by government agencies, things that would, that they track and have tracked for a long, long time that emerge with things like unemploy. The second bucket is really my travels in and around the 10th district. We're seven states, 20 million people in businesses trying to get four cornered in the district to try to get as much real time information. And so the convergence, the way I see it, I think a couple things were at odds in some of the information and data that was that emerged here in the last month or two. The first is that there was a lot, you know, we heard the word uncertainty everywhere we went. You got to change it. Administration, you got some big policy rocks, you had a budget that was being debated. All those things create uncertainty in a business person's mind. Right. The second thing was a major change in immigration policy. And so that created its own set of uncertainties and dynamics. And I think what we're finding, or at least what we're seeing in the 10th district is a lot of those things converged over a very short period of time. And what normally will happen, and this kind of gets me back to my banker days, is businesses will actually, they'll slow their decisioning down. They'll, let's say, freeze hiring for a time. They'll be a little bit more conservative with their spend on certain things. And so I actually think that affected some of the labor numbers that came out in the most recent tabletops we've done with businesses. They seem to be digesting a lot of that change and those changes in the last couple weeks, I've seen a level of confidence back in both the business sectors and some of the discussions about labor and workforce. So we'll see. I mean, I would expect maybe a bit of a rebound in some of the labor statistics, but at the end of the day, it really is about balancing the supply and demand of the labor force. And what emerges from that over the next. I'd Say a couple of quarters.
- [21:04]
Tracy Alloway
It's interesting you talk about maybe people feeling slightly more comfortable, at least relatively to compared to the beginning of the year recently because I've seen some chatter about maybe an economic reacceleration right now. You know, some of the tariffs have now been finalized. It looks so far like we haven't had that huge inflationary uptick. Although of course producer prices that we saw last week maybe tell a slightly different story. We did have that retail spending report out on Friday that showed people were still spending quite a lot of money. Yeah. Do you see signs of a sort of like recovery or re acceleration at the moment?
- [21:42]
Jeff Schmidt
I don't know. I mean we got good GDP numbers, kind of a bit of a rebound sling back in the second quarter from the first quarter's weakness and that had a lot of noise in it the first quarter. I think, I don't know if I necessarily categorize it as a rebound. I think that there, there just, there's a lot of things that are kind of working themselves through. I mean you've got a major, major cycle change with a new administration with a lot of really very interesting macro ideas that they're putting in place. And you know, I think you could make a fair argument that a lot of those are pro growth types of policies and processes and programs. So I think the nature of what we see in both the labor data and the inflation data are going to be pretty interesting. And there's a lot yet to emerge between even this week and our September FOMC meeting. But, but I think the nature of how people are thinking about the economy, what the markets are, how they're performing, there is an optimism, I think shift from it wasn't that they were down in the first couple quarters, they just weren't sure. And so there was some pausing happening. And then I think we're sensing that the nature of the next couple cycles as we get into the holiday seasons toward the end of the year, there just seems to be a pretty good optimism about what's going to happen in the next couple quarters.
- [23:10]
Joe Weisenthal
Let me ask you a question about the latest jobs report that actually sort of ties near term cyclical story with the broader term theme of the conference, which is that the two sectors that basically in the most recent jobs report, the two sectors that basically added all of the jobs were healthcare and social assistance. And these sectors basically add employment virtually every month without fail. And it's very easy to connect that to aging because people who are elderly or retired need a certain type of, you know, Nurses and so forth to take care of them. But these aren't considered to be particularly high productivity jobs. Looking in the medium term, do you worry about this, like how much of the productive labor force will be necessary to essentially take care of old people and what that means for productivity overall?
- [24:00]
Jeff Schmidt
So when we kind of interview a lot of our healthcare professionals in the district, there is still a huge demand need in that sector. And so I think there's a big up potential in, specifically in the health care industry. And here again I'm a baby boomer, so I'm using more of those services. And as you do experience that, you do see that there, there's a real demand need for health care professionals in kind of all spectrums of that industry. And so I do think that there are pockets by industry that could still use a lot of labor talent. I'd say health care, certain agricultural industries. In the 10th district, there's certainly some technology and manufacturing that I think could, you could see a bit of nice growth in over the next several quarters. So, so I, I think what's going to be interesting and kind of getting a little bit back to the AI conversation.
- [24:55]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
- [24:56]
Jeff Schmidt
Is I think the nature of jobs inside industries is going to change. So we talk a little bit about this in the Reserve bank is we just launched a new five year strategic plan. And embedded in the plan is really to re explore the skill sets that are necessary to make this plan happen. And I think the things that we used to be doing the last five or ten years need to be shifted to something else to stay a high performing Reserve Bank. So I do believe in a lot of these industry areas with I think healthcare being at the top of the list. I think you're going to see a reskilling in a lot of these job areas as some of the jobs that can be done by a more artificial intelligence technology are going to shift to much more, let's say intellectual or behavioral based job skills going forward. So, so I think here again I think that's the message I give to our business associates in the 10th district is tell us how you're reskilling your workforce. Because I think that's where AI is going to really play a big role. You can't be static in the job you're doing. You have to reimagine that job with new technologies.
- [26:12]
Tracy Alloway
You know, you mentioned markets earlier and clearly there's a lot of enthusiasm about AI still in the markets. And that's one of the reasons we've seen stocks, you know, hovering around all Time highs and credit spreads are now at what like a 30 year low basically. Talk to us about where you see rates at the moment in terms of their restrictiveness because some of your fellow Fed presidents will say that they think rates are still restrictive. And then when I look at something like credit spreads at, you know, a three decade low, I think actually this doesn't look that restrictive to me.
- [26:49]
Joe Weisenthal
And with inflation still above target, with.
- [26:51]
Tracy Alloway
Inflation still above target, how restrictive are rates at the moment?
- [26:56]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah, it's a great question and I've been very public, I believe they're, I would call them modestly restrictive. They're not overly restrictive. And I think that what we have to be careful of is kind of rebasing our decisioning on rates. And I think the markets do this because look, I'm a former banker, bankers and bank clients, they love low credit rates. They like lower rates because they can perform better on their capital base. So I, I understand that piece, but there, but I think we talk about being range bound to a degree. I, I like to think about, you know, I love the 90s, right. So if you think about how hard the 80s were as we emerged into the 90s, we had a technology surge and, and if you watched or looked at the nature of the economy, it performed really well. But there were, monetary policy was, became a bit of a wave. So you would start to make decisions where if you saw things happening in either the, you know, your, your dual mandate, you're, you know, keeping stable prices and full employment, you would adjust that policy rate and when things got maybe a little bit hotter and then as they cooled you bring them down. But it was a nice range mountain process for me. The experience of the last, let's say two or three shocks. So you had the 08 shock, you had the 2020 pandemic shock. You know, you're pushing rates down to de minimis levels. You probably don't want rates down there that low because if, if they're down there that low, you're trying to pick something off its back and so you're trying to create a rate environment that creates stimulus. So I think right now we seem to be in a really good place. And so, you know, it almost becomes more difficult in the debate on rates whether they should be higher or lower when you're at the margin versus when you're trying to use monetary policy as more of a blunt force instrument to try to pound a high inflation rate down like we did in, in the 2223 cycle. So it's, it's actually going from kind of a, a blunt force tool to actually more surgical. And then the debate gets very interesting about where that you should turn those dials relative to the data that you're seeing. So it actually becomes more difficult when you get on the margin in that range bound area versus when you're trying to really sledge the economy on the inflation side down.
- [29:27]
Joe Weisenthal
So Tracy mentioned that estimating the neutral rate of interest is a sort of difficult concept in any period. But there is this view that the neutral rate of interest today in 2025 is significantly higher than it was in 2019. And probably some of the best evidence for that is the fact that even though the market is anticipating rate cuts in the short term over the next couple of years, that the long term rate still fairly elevated curves steepen higher rates for longer. What changed? What's the difference between 2025 and 2019 such that it looks like the neutral rate of interest is so much durably higher.
- [30:04]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah, Joe, this is really interesting science. With the policy side of, of our mandate, we have some, some influence on the short end of the curve. Right. So, but so taking the long end, the whole concept of the long rate, it has what we call term premiums in it. Right. You know, and you have to kind of sub.
- [30:24]
Tracy Alloway
Joe doesn't believe in the term premium, for the record, but I do, I do.
- [30:28]
Jeff Schmidt
Sure. I, I, I don't, I don't know if I believe in it, but I, I think there are pieces of a long rate that have sections of it that the market is going to try to digest.
- [30:38]
Joe Weisenthal
Can I just say, Tracy thinks that I'm a complete crank, but every once in a while we get a guest who's like, you know, there's something too. Joe Skeptic.
- [30:45]
Tracy Alloway
No, no, no. Every once we get a guest who will say, you know, it's a nuance thing, which it is. We all agree.
- [30:50]
Joe Weisenthal
All right, keep going, keep going.
- [30:52]
Jeff Schmidt
Okay. So, so the, so what I, I try, what I'm trying to do with, let's say the concept of the long end of the curve issues of, okay, some of the market's going to say they're going to be influenced by the prospect of inflation because you have to build a price into the long rate for inflation. Some of them are going to say it's a demand and supply issue with the debt that's trying to be financed, both government and private debt. The nature of that long rate, there's pieces of it that are going to influence it. It's interesting. You know, I talk about the Fed balance sheet quite a bit. It's hard to second guess what we did in the 08 and 2020 cycle with our balance sheet relative to trying to keep the long rate somewhat in submission. So actually the duration of our balance sheet is influencing the long rate to some extent, which I think is in a positive way. So when you think about it, the treasury duration is about four or five years. Our balance sheet's about a little over eight years in duration. So that's that quantitative twisting that people talk about. So we're actually influencing the long rate a little bit in our balance sheet in a positive way. But I think over time, as long as the market believes that debt can be financed and there's not a lot of inflation expectation, you're seeing the long end of the curve drift downward.
- [32:36]
Lisa Mateo
Hi, I'm Lisa Mateo introducing you to the new Stock Movers Report from Bloomberg. These are short audio reports, five minutes or less, delivered right to your podcast feed. Throughout the day, Stock Movers fills you in on the day's winners and losers on Wall street and tells you about the news and data that's driving those gains and losses. If you want to stay plugged into the stock market but don't want to spend all day watching tickers scroll across your screen, then Stock Movers is a place for you to get informed. Listen a couple times throughout the day to find out what's moving equities and why. Search for Stock Movers on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. Get the latest stock news and data backed by reporting from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts across the globe. Subscribe to Stock Movers wherever you get your podcasts.
- [33:34]
Joe Weisenthal
So I'm going to go to what I think you know what is maybe the hot button topic of the moment. The formal theme of this year's Jackson Hole is of course about the labor market and various trends. The subtext theme, and I think this is going to be a lot of interest, is the attacks on the Fed and concerns about central bank independence. Just to your point, about what's driving that long end of the curve. If there are concerns that the political will is no longer there to keep an independent central bank. If there are concerns that in the future that the Fed will more be at the beck and call of elected officials, could that also be a factor in driving up the long end of the curve, as investors may rationally presume that a future Fed may not be as committed to stable prices as the current Fed?
- [34:22]
Jeff Schmidt
Wow, that's deep, Joe. Actually there's so much, there's such an onion in what you.
- [34:29]
Joe Weisenthal
I know, I know, but I'm trying, but. So strip away all of my throat clearing, which I felt was necessary. If there is concern that there is no longer the political will to maintain an independent central bank, that there is concern that a future Fed may not be as committed to inflation fighting as it ought to be to keep that 2% goal, could that be a factor driving up rates at the long end?
- [34:49]
Tracy Alloway
Peel the onion for us. We have time.
- [34:51]
Jeff Schmidt
Okay, so the quick answer is, I don't know. I guess I wouldn't. I don't see or hear that. Acknowledge the debate. Yeah, Joe and I believe, look, our country's going to be 250 years old next year. It's still the great experiment. It's built on legislation. And what's fascinating to me is the issue of Fed independence. It's codified, right? So we have a mandate, it's legislative. That legislative authority can shift and change. But it's hard to argue that the efficacy of the independence piece. I mean, I think there's a bit of perfection in me being able to go to a table with 18 other really committed and bright people to try to keep this economy on a level. Rail. You know, I talk to people about the economy being this big, very massive train, the largest, most powerful train, economic train in the world, $30 trillion. And you've got administration and a Congress that really is running the train where the American people are, are riding on that train. Now for the Fed, the Fed is not the train. The Fed is actually the rails. It, it simplifies the, to me to think about the two rails being, you know, stable prices and, and full employment. And for us, it's really, it helps us not to have to worry about the market or the politic of things to try to keep the rail steady and level so that train can go fast. And so the nature of what we do in those two rails and the decisioning we do is really more balancing than it is trying to shoot towards some predetermined place. We know 2% is a good place to be for inflation. I think time has tested that. We know full employment is a really very positive friction to the stable price mandate. So kind of getting back to the independence thing, healthy friction in the conversation just makes the Republic stronger, in my opinion. So I'm happy with the debate, I'm happy to express it, but frankly it's, it's less important that I express it as what you and your listeners believe that independence does to this, to the decisioning of that massive economy. I think it works. I think you, you see other countries that the disentangle it to the body politic. And I think it's very difficult to keep economies level set when you don't have that independence piece.
- [37:35]
Tracy Alloway
Well, on this topic, let me ask, I guess a blunter independence question because Joe's right, that this is, you know, this is the unofficial theme of the conference, I think, and you yourself have previously stressed the importance of Fed independence. So are there steps that the Fed should be taking in order to, you know, not necessarily improve its independence or even protect its independence, but to convince people like us and the markets that it is truly making decisions independently.
- [38:07]
Jeff Schmidt
So the proof is in the pudding about, you know, how is our policy action affecting the level setting of those rails. And so look, we should be held to task that are we making decisions that are rationalized on sound data and that they are in compliance with the congressional mandates that we have. And so we are kind of duty bound to that framework. And so I would say there's a measure of perfection in the fact that even in the Fed structure where you've got seven board of governors and 12 Reserve bank presidents, where the nature of just how those individuals are seated with, let's say, Senate confirmation, a White House nomination for the Board of Governors, and then the 12 reserve banks having their own in market in district boards that really kind of act as a ballast to the whole independence architecture. So I actually think that the nature of how it was structured in 1913 is still effective today. We're just continuing to learn about how to make policy better. Relative to what? To the cycles in the economy. Think about the 20s and 30s, think about the 1970s and 80s cycle. We're still learning as a body to get this right because we've got this amazing economy, 30 trillion of 100 trillion. And if we're healthy, the globe can be healthy. And that's the way I see our role. And that's why I think independence matters.
- [39:44]
Joe Weisenthal
All right, I have another question that I forgot to ask Mary Daly. And now it says, and I've been thinking about it and I was like, okay, now you're here at the most recent Fed decision, there were two dissents, which is not, you know, crazy dissents happen, but they're like fairly rare, et cetera. Why are dissents rare? How would you articulate why dissents are rare? Because I think this again could be relevant in the future depending on who the next Fed Fed chair is. Are they rare? Because generally speaking, you and your colleagues roughly arrive at the same view of what's appropriate policy. Or are they rare? Because historically, when there is some marginal difference, the regional Fed presidents and the other governors tend to defer to the judgment of the chair.
- [40:30]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah, I love that question. And so I maybe frame it in a couple of ways. One is, I think in a lot of ways, dissents are healthy. I think there are times when we get kind of criticized as being kind of Fed speak. They're always aligned.
- [40:46]
Joe Weisenthal
And yet, by and large, two is rare. Sometimes there's one, frequently. Is there? So what's the reason why, generally speaking, they are pretty rare.
- [40:56]
Jeff Schmidt
So here again, we're at the margin on things like the policy rate today. So the data could shift people's opinions one way, the other on the dual mandate relative to their vote on, on dissent or not. So I think the two dissents were fairly rational public statements about concern about the labor, the labor market and the labor force. I, you know, there was great debate. And so you're trying to figure out where do you settle on the debate? The other influence really is the chair. I, I've worked with Jerome Powell for a couple of years now. I, he's a principal, he's committed. I think he appreciates in his background and experience trying to collaborate with people at the table to get a sense of where they are in their, their opinions of where the economy is and where the policy rate should be. And I've really enjoyed working with them. And we don't always agree, but at the nature of once you get to the table, you've got to make a decision. And I think that you just have to have good data, good background, good discussions in your district about where do you think that the policy rate should go. And I, and so I think it really does. It's healthy discussion and at times, I suppose it's going to be a vote of dissent a time or two. But we're in the margin play now relative to where that policy rate should be.
- [42:22]
Tracy Alloway
Okay. So speaking of where the policy rate should go and healthy discussion, obviously there's a lot of stuff happening between now and the September meeting. We have the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium itself. We have a couple more big data points. What specific data or developments would signal to you that perhaps it is time to start, you know, really thinking or advocating for that rate cut? What are you watching out for?
- [42:48]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah, so I'd be watching what a lot of us watch, you know, some of the inflation data. There's quite a bit of it going to come out in the next four or five weeks. Certainly we're going to be very determined to network our inside the 10th district about what's happening inside labor, the workforce just try to get a better beat on where unemployment is and supply and demand where that is. So I think those are the principal data points. Then I think that there's, that's what's beautiful about the Jackson Hole timing. I think there's going to be a lot of discussion not just domestically but internationally. I mean We've got 150 people, experts in their own right, central bankers, some of those most amazing economists on the globe, all four corners just to get a calibration of where everybody is just globally. And I think we'll be able to emerge with solid decisioning in September. We'll see where that goes. Like I said, I, when I put everything in the basket, it just seems like we're in a pretty good place right now. But look, that data can shift and change and we're in kind of, as I mentioned, kind of the nuance of the range of where we want to be with policy rate and we'll see where it goes in September.
- [44:05]
Joe Weisenthal
My last question is, and it's basically just a restatement of Tracy's earlier question, but I'm still trying to wrap my head around this. Americans have experienced years of above target inflation. It's still running a little warm. As Tracy mentioned, stock market's at all time high, credit spreads very low and again inflation still warm. And you also say that you think the labor market is all right, it's fine. And that maybe businesses have a little confidence, just articulate what is it therefore that's restrictive or even modestly restrictive about the current stance? Well, how do you demonstrate that it's restrictive?
- [44:42]
Jeff Schmidt
Yeah, yeah, so, so look, there's a lot of market opinion about kind of the nature of where the policy rate is to say, let's say where the two year treasury is. And just the, you know, everybody has kind of the, they get go back to this whole neutral rate conversation. Right. Which I think has some value. I mean the R Star processes of value. There's going to be some really interesting discussion on the Taylor rule. I mean some of the Taylor rule data today would suggest that maybe rates ought to be a little. So we're gonna, I think we're gonna really bear down on the nature of how restrictive things might be. And but to your point, Joe, with all the data sets that you just espoused along with the dual mandate data sets, it just Seems like we're in a pretty good place. I, I, I don't think we should not talk about it. Would there be a scenario where rates could go higher? On the policy side, the PPI was a bit eye opening. We'll see where the CPE comes in later here in August and September. Not that necessarily it needs to go higher, but you have to be willing to anchor yourself inside those mandates. So if in fact you see something that needs more restriction, you shouldn't be unafraid to act. That's our job. So we'll see. But right now it seems like we're in a good place. By the way, we brought that policy rate down 100 basis points since a year ago, so it's not like we haven't moved it. And the yield curve seems to be in a pretty good place too. And so I, I don't know, I, I like, I like what I'm seeing right now. With a bit of caution on, let's just keep our eye on this inflation number as they emerge.
- [46:37]
Tracy Alloway
So I have one more question because I realize it would be bad if we had you on and we didn't ask you at least one bank, given your previous career history, but the other forgotten theme of our macroeconomic policy moment is quantitative tightening. Right. QT is still going on in the background. And recently we've seen use of the RRP, the repo facility, going to less than 50 billion. And so people are talking again about are we getting to a point where we are going to see bank reserves start to drop and maybe they will become scarce? I know the Fed has been watching this. Is funding on your radar at the moment? Is there a possibility that we do start to see some signs of additional stress in the funding market?
- [47:21]
Jeff Schmidt
Okay, so I would say that right now there, there's a, I think a general consensus that we are in an abundant reserves policy framework. But there's also debate on both the size of the Fed balance sheet and the size of the reserves in the system. There's actually, actually very good debate relative to the cost or non cost of ample or abundant reserves in the system. Is it, does it create an inefficiency, does it create too much of a footprint of the Fed into the markets? I will say that I'm, I'm encouraged that we're in a project now that's I think, gonna, gonna modernize the discount window process. So I think there's an opportunity where the Fed as the nation's central bank can make the activities inside the discount window much more fungible and much easier for banks to access. And I think you could start to see in the, in future years where reserves and discount window act or react in a positive way where you can actually see a smaller footprint of reserves, where banks are much more comfortable having the backstop and having a much, much easier way to access reserves through the discount window and other tools as a way to make the market comfortable, that there's plenty of liquidity in the system. So I'm excited about that. It's very timely that we do that because here again, two years ago we launched Fed Now. So I think what's the other fascinating thing about the ecosystem of banking is we are moving to an instant payment economy. I mean, you're starting to see even businesses start to think about paying people every day. You know, and just the nature of, of, of how we move money instantly seven days a week, 24 hours a day. The nature of that is really going to be a very interesting dynamic and it's going to be necessary for the central bank to be accommodative to the immediacy of that money movement. And so I'm excited about some of the conversations we're having to make that, to make our system of money movement movement much more modern.
- [49:35]
Tracy Alloway
All right. Well, Jeff, we're going to have to end it there. We could go on forever, but we'll save some of it for in person at Jackson Hole, I suppose.
- [49:43]
Jeff Schmidt
I really look forward to that.
- [49:44]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah. Thank you so much.
- [49:45]
Joe Weisenthal
Thank you so much for coming on.
- [49:46]
Tracy Alloway
And giving us a preview. And we'll see you in Wyoming.
- [49:50]
Jeff Schmidt
Very welcome. See you there.
- [50:03]
Tracy Alloway
Joe. There was a lot to pick out of that conversation and it was a really good preview of, I think, what's going to be like hot button topics at the event itself. But one sentence kind of jumped out at both of us, I think, which is the idea that, well, you know, there are scenarios where interest rates, you could argue interest rates should be higher here.
- [50:20]
Joe Weisenthal
That was a little bit interesting and he phrased it in an interesting way, and I have to go back to the tape because there was, I think, a double negative in there. But I mean, look, you said it. Stocks are record high, credit spreads are record low. He characterized maybe we've already seen the worst of the labor market momentum for 2025 with the unemployment rate still in the low fours and inflation is still warm.
- [50:44]
Tracy Alloway
Well, I know he also, he pushed back on the specific use of re. Economic. Re acceleration, that word. But it is true, we have seen in addition to some of the data, like turning negative or showing a slowdown. We have seen some of the data start to tick up, at least compared to like recent months.
- [51:01]
Joe Weisenthal
So this is an interesting thing. We got that recent jobs report and you say, oh, we're like slowing down. But when we did our recent episode with Skanda, he made the good point like, well, actually maybe that data was weak because that was the immediate post tariff volatility and you slammed the brakes on the hiring and so forth. And assuming that the uncertainty measures have come down certainly since the middle of April, it is plausible that we've already seen the softest Labor Market of 2025. Anyway, lots of interesting there and I think, like it's a really good theme. I mean it's a good theme for this year's conference because it does feel like some of the things that are happening immediately right now also intersect with long term themes.
- [51:40]
Tracy Alloway
Definitely.
- [51:41]
Joe Weisenthal
And so there's a lot of moving parts.
- [51:42]
Tracy Alloway
It's one of those conference themes that is not just like theoretical, you know, 10 or 20 years in the distance. It's sort of like it's very much now. And on that note, you know, we're going to have some good episodes that we record with people who are presenting papers on those topics.
- [51:57]
Joe Weisenthal
Very excited. So listeners should be prepared for much Jackson Hole content to come.
- [52:02]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah. All right, shall we leave it there?
- [52:03]
Joe Weisenthal
Let's leave it there.
- [52:04]
Tracy Alloway
This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Allaway.
- [52:09]
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart, Follow our producers, Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman, Arman Dashiell Bennett at dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. For more Odd Lots content go to bloomberg.com oddlots where the Daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about all of these topics 24. 7 in our Discord Discord GG oddlots.
- [52:31]
Tracy Alloway
And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we go to Jackson Hole, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you have to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcast and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. Sam.