Odd Lots (Bloomberg)

Episode: Lots More on the Protests and Financial Crisis in Iran

Date: January 16, 2026
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway
Guest: Macieja Vojtal, CEO of Amtelon Capital

Overview

This episode dives deeply into Iran’s ongoing civil unrest, triggered by major financial turmoil and widespread protests. Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Macieja Vojtal, a rare fund manager specializing in Iranian equities, to make sense of the rapidly evolving situation. The conversation covers the causes and impact of the protests, the economic collapse, the blackout on communications, and what all this means for Iran's political and market future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: Civil Unrest and Lack of Transparency

• Joe Weisenthal brings up the tragic scale of protests, with thousands dead by some reports, made even more difficult to track due to an almost total government-imposed internet blackout.
  • “I'm not going to say the specific estimate because it's changing all the time. And also there's not that much transparency at the moment because the government has shut down the entire Internet…” (04:05)
• Tracy Alloway comments on the skepticism and uncertainty surrounding external reports from Iran, expressing a lack of confidence in knowing who to trust.
  • “I also feel like in my professional career there are multiple rounds of this big protests… Is this the moment regime change? …I am extremely skeptical… I don't know who is well informed, what is actually signal versus what is noise.” (04:17)

2. Ground Reality: Communication, Blackouts, and Safety

• Macieja Vojtal describes the severity of the communication blackout:
  • Only outgoing landline calls are sometimes allowed, and even those are frequently cut off. Digital services—including Iran's own highly-controlled internet and even ATMs—ceased functioning, leaving only basic necessities like cash and local ride-hailing apps operational (albeit without GPS).
  • "There’s complete blackout… including even like the internal domain domestic, like an Internet network in Iran… Even ATMs stopped working for a moment."(05:03)
• Vojtal assures that their local team in Tehran relocated safely to smaller towns as protests worsened.
  • “…analysts who were in Tehran… left Tehran a few days ago when the protests were getting more intense, to smaller cities, to their hometowns… at that time, they were in a safe place.” (06:52)

3. Is This Time Different? The Nature & Scale of Protests

• Vojtal compares Iran to Poland in the 1980s, noting it often takes years of episodic, brutal protests before significant change emerges, and sometimes the transition is negotiated, not explosive.
• He points out what's different this time:
  • Iran now has a much larger and younger population with access to the internet and frustrated aspirations. This gives the movement broader, deeper roots.
  • The current protests are not just about social freedom, but primarily driven by economic hardship, which affects nearly every household:
    • “Another thing that's changed is…protests around social freedoms… right now is driven by economic difficulties. And this touches every single household in Iran.” (09:02)

4. Economic Collapse at the Heart

• The latest round of unrest was sparked by currency collapse and skyrocketing inflation, with elite bazaar merchants in Tehran taking the lead:
  • "The protest started on the Grand Bazaar in Tehran… It’s impossible to obtain to access hard currency or there’s not enough of it. And that’s obviously because of sanctions.” (10:47)
• Sanctions have crippled Iran’s ability to obtain hard currency and forced it to sell oil only to China, giving China the upper hand on price and payment terms:
  • “China is dictating all the terms, including big discounts in the price…but also the terms of the payments… what Iran needs is, is to pay for essential goods…” (11:49)
• People are struggling to afford basic foods, with essential items taking more than 10% of an average monthly salary.
• The Iranian rial is in freefall:
  • "It's around 1.5 million rial per $1… it went down around 97, 98% over the last decade and around almost 50% since before the war with Israel last year."(12:51)

Notable Quote

• Tracy Alloway: “But I have to say starting your own bank to then just fund your construction company, a kind of a brilliant idea. B this is why bank supervision and various things is important actually.” (14:36)

5. Information Black Hole & Market Functionality

• Iran has become an "information black hole;" even fundamental questions like whether the stock market is open can’t be easily answered from outside:
  • “Here's a country on earth and right now where we are in New York or where you are in London, we can't even answer the simple question is the stock market functioning right now?” (18:03)
• The blackout, while briefly effective, can't last:
  • “…it's not possible for the country to keep the blackout at this scale and intensity for too long because the whole economy stops… the administration of the country is not possible without Internet.” (18:14)

6. Investment Perspective: What Happens in Market Meltdowns

• Vojtal describes past shutdowns: following shocks, the market often appears stable initially due to manipulation and low liquidity, but upon reopening, retail investors rush to sell, causing deep plunges before any recovery:
  • “After it reopened, the prices didn't change much. But then… started selling, selling at any price just to get money out. And there was a massive selling pressure that lasted from July until September.” (18:59–21:01)
• Current valuations, measured in net earnings, are extremely low, reflecting persistent crisis pricing:
  • “It went below three times net earnings median for the market… So you could probably find stocks at two times earnings.” (21:20)

7. The Political-Economic Breakdown: Who Wants What?

• The society is split:
  • ~10-30%: Deeply religious, strongly supports the Islamic Republic.
  • Larger urban/younger segment: Seeks freedom and opportunities, frustrated with lack of change.
  • Tehran is notably more liberal; other cities are more conservative.
  • “…a third of the society just being religious and supporting the Islamic republic… And the rest are people who want a modern, open state…” (22:19–24:15)

8. What Next? Uncertainty and Possible Paths

• The future is unpredictable, but financial constraints make it harder for the regime to quell unrest as in the past:
  • “…the government just can't spend their way out of the problem. The financial situation is really tough, but some changes are likely. I'm not saying that within the next few days or weeks, maybe it will take months, but I think it's just moving this direction.” (24:48)
• Negotiated solutions are possible, as seen recently in Venezuela.
  • “There was no regime change there. There was… negotiated solution with Maduro taken out and the rest of the government and establishment just staying in place. But they have to cooperate.” (25:36)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Macieja Vojtal:

  • “Protests were so intense and so widespread… and now is driven by economic difficulties. And this touches every single household in Iran.” (09:02)
  • “It was a huge example of corruption…he set up a bank, offered the highest interest rates on the market… then he was using those deposits to make loans to his own companies.” (13:42)
  • “The market went down like in dollar terms from lets say index of… 36% in dollar terms in just two and a half months. The selling pressure then was exhausted. All the...sales were absorbed. Valuations went down to...very close levels to the all time lows.” (20:45–21:20)
  • “So everything in Iran is priced for war, right. So that's, that's the sentiment hasn't really recovered after the last war and now we had protests.” (21:33)

• Joe Weisenthal:

  • “What a world we live in where civil unrest is becoming a major investment theme.” (26:15)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:09–03:39 Casual banter and Iranian food, segue into the show
• 03:52–05:03 Summary of protests, transparency issues
• 05:03–06:25 Blackout details, difficulties in basic functioning
• 06:25–06:52 Introduction of guest, Macieja Vojtal
• 06:52–07:18 Safety update from local team
• 07:18–10:21 Is this protest different? Population, social vs. economic protest
• 10:21–13:42 Economic causes, currency collapse, bazaar protests, sanctions
• 13:42–14:36 Banking scandal, corruption details
• 17:51–18:14 Information black hole, basic mysteries about market function
• 18:14–19:56 Impact of blackout on economy, how long it can last
• 18:59–21:38 Market shutdowns, selling pressure, crash and rebound pattern
• 22:19–24:13 Political economy, social classes, religious vs. modernist split
• 24:15–26:15 US–Iran tension “pause,” regime stability, scenarios for the future

Tone and Style

The conversation is open, analytical, sometimes witty, and grounded in deep skepticism about official narratives. The hosts freely admit knowledge gaps and rely on Vojtal for rare on-the-ground insight, lending the episode an honest, searching tone. As always, Odd Lots maintains its informal and inquisitive style, balanced with expert financial and geopolitical analysis.

Summary

If you’ve missed the episode, this discussion offers an essential look into Iran’s tumultuous intersection of economic crisis and civil protest—revealing just how drastic and unpredictable the situation has become for ordinary Iranians, and the rare investors exposed to its market. The crisis is as much about inflation and currency collapse as it is about politics, and while regime change is far from certain, the hosts and guest agree this protest wave is fundamentally different—more widespread, more economically driven, and more dangerous for the government to suppress. The episode closes with sobering reminders of both how hard it is to get accurate information from Iran right now—and how unrest in an "information black hole" is becoming a key global risk factor.