Odd Lots Podcast Summary

Episode: Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market
Date: November 7, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg)
Guest: Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion Columnist)

Episode Overview

This special edition of Odd Lots, marking the show’s 10th anniversary, dives deep into the current turbulence in the US labor market. With official job data unavailable due to a government shutdown, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, joined by Conor Sen, unpack alternative labor indicators, conflicting economic signals, the role of AI, the impact of immigration, and emerging structural challenges facing US employment. This candid discussion weaves together data skepticism, macroeconomic theory, and on-the-ground anecdotes to make sense of an opaque and possibly deteriorating jobs outlook.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Celebrating Ten Years of Odd Lots (01:54 – 02:53)

• Milestone banter; the hosts acknowledge their 10th anniversary.
• Tracy jokes about never receiving a gift from Joe, who counters he brings back sweets from travel.
• Memorable, lighthearted moment:
  Tracy: "I wait with bated breath for a gift from Joe one of these days." (02:32)

2. Government Shutdown & Lack of Official Jobs Data (03:31 – 05:13)

• Due to the government shutdown, official Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is missing.
• Discussion of turning to alternative datasets like ADP and Challenger.
• General frustration with alt-data’s accuracy and lack of emotional “punch.”
  • Joe: "It just doesn't hit the same, does it, Connor?" (03:54)
  • Conor: "Having to care about ADP is just the worst." (03:59)
• ADP’s flaws: revises towards BLS numbers, so not truly predictive in real time.

3. Conflicting Alternative Labor Indicators (05:27 – 08:12)

• Challenger data: “worst month for layoffs in 20 years” (headline), but initial jobless claims stay steady.
• ADP estimates show a modest 42,000 job gain for October, versus Challenger's bleak picture.
• Conor clarifies Challenger reports “announced” layoffs, not actual job losses—possible headline inflation.
  • Conor: "The way the Challenger data works is it's announced layoffs... not actual job cuts that month." (07:16)
• Initial claims low, but last year's hurricane effects distort year-over-year figures.

4. "Contracted Market" vs "Spot Market" in Employment (08:58 – 11:09)

• Conor introduces helpful analogy, drawing from commodity markets:
  • "Contracted" market: jobs and salaries locked in during 2022 boom (e.g., high pay for analysts who stay put).
  • "Spot" market: current hiring for similar roles commands much less.
  • Joe: "The person sitting in that seat might be taking in $150,000... but if that seat were open ... maybe it would only be ... $100,000." (09:35)
  • This tension, as “seniors” stay put, squeezes out new entrants—hurting upward mobility.

5. The Role of Immigration and Demographics (11:09 – 11:53)

• Lower immigration leads to a lower 'break-even' jobs rate.
• Diminished population and job growth = less demand in areas like apartments and consumer staples.
  • Conor: “If you don't have population growth, you don't need job growth, and if you don't have job growth, you don't need to sign an apartment lease.” (11:34)

6. AI: Cause or Context for Job Cuts? (11:53 – 12:25)

• AI as a justification for layoffs versus real tech displacement.
  • Conor: “I don't think the technology is displacing workers... but companies are cost constrained and feel like they have to invest in AI, so you've got to cut somewhere.” (12:02)
  • AI as a boardroom “optics” move—firms want to appear tech-forward by cutting labor.

7. Consumer Weakness Moves Up the Income Curve (13:56 – 15:44)

• Chipotle, McDonald's, Sweetgreen, and Cava suffering; fast-food and salad-bowl chains see flagging demand.
• McDonald’s aggressively returned to “value” with its $5 meal, vying for market share amid price-sensitive consumers.
  • Tracy: “It is not nothing to get a meal from McDonald's nowadays.” (14:04)
  • Conor: "When you're hearing Chipotle talk about weakness among 25 to 35 year olds... weakness is creeping up the income scale..." (15:44)

8. Yawning Data Gaps & Outlook for Official Employment Reports (18:24 – 19:03)

• Even when government reopens, September-October job data will be “messy” and not insightful.
  • Conor: "We're not going to have a clean read... until at least January... we're kind of just twiddling our thumbs until year end." (18:49)

9. The Fed’s Conundrum: Policy in an Uncertain and AI-Augmented Labor Market (19:03 – 21:13)

• Fed unlikely to change course until “hand is forced.”
  • Labor market for long-term unemployed is weak; unemployment rate lagging reality.
  • Rate cuts haven't alleviated housing market or job growth.
    • Conor: “The Fed's cut rates 150 basis points and housing is worse now... the labor market doesn't seem to be getting better yet.” (19:50)
• Fed doesn't control, or maybe even understand, the transmission of AI shocks; it's a blind spot.

10. Projecting AI Politics: 2028 and Beyond (21:13 – 22:27)

• Anticipation that AI will become a divisive, high-stakes political issue.
  • Joe: "It seems very plausible to me that in 2028... most people see [AI] as a job killer / electricity price booster." (21:43)
• Split in Republican coalition between tech-oriented and working-class interests.

11. How Close Are We to a Job Market "Snowball"? (22:39 – 23:49)

• Companies likely to be cautious with hiring and investment plans for 2026.
  • Weak Q4 investment plans could foreshadow joblessness in Q1 2026.
    • Conor: “Could the unemployment rate go into the high fours? Yes... three to six months from now it's still going to be worse than it is today.” (23:20)

12. Hidden Risks: Private Credit and Underwriting Weakness (23:49 – 24:43)

• Private asset markets may have taken on greater risk than recognized.
• Echoes of opaque underwriting from fintech and private credit firms; could be in trouble if downturn accelerates.
  • Conor: "It's just hard to think underwriting is really, really great right now... If anything worsens, I assume those guys are going to be in trouble." (24:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Joe Weisenthal:
  "It just doesn't hit the same, does it, Connor?" (03:54)

• Conor Sen:
  "Having to care about ADP is just the worst." (03:59)
  "The way the Challenger data works is it's announced layoffs... not actual job cuts that month." (07:16)
  “I don't think jobs are really growing in the aggregate right now. Certainly ex-healthcare.” (08:17)
  "I don't think the technology is displacing workers... but companies are cost constrained and feel like they have to invest in AI." (12:02)
  “If you don't have population growth, you don't need job growth, and if you don't have job growth, you don't need to sign an apartment lease.” (11:34)
  "We're not going to have a clean read on the data until at least January... we're kind of just twiddling our thumbs until year end." (18:49)
  "The Fed's cut rates 150 basis points and housing is worse now than it was a year and a half ago." (19:50)

• Tracy Alloway:
  "It is not nothing to get a meal from McDonald's nowadays." (14:04)

• Joe Weisenthal:
  "It seems very plausible to me that in 2028... most people see [AI] as a job killer / electricity price booster." (21:43)

Important Timestamps

• 01:54 – Odd Lots 10-year anniversary banter
• 03:31 – Start of labor market discussion (shutdown and NFP absence)
• 05:27 – Unpacking alt-data (Challenger, ADP, initial claims)
• 08:58 – Contracted vs spot labor market analogy
• 11:09 – Impact of immigration on jobs, demand
• 11:53 – AI as a driver or scapegoat for cost-cutting
• 13:56 – Food sector as a proxy for consumer pressure
• 18:24 – What's next for labor data reliability
• 19:03 – The Fed, interest rates and macro strategy
• 21:13 – The politics of AI; what to expect in 2028
• 22:39 – Jobs snowball, Q4 planning outlook
• 23:49 – Hidden risks in private credit markets

Tone and Style

The episode maintains Odd Lots' signature blend of analytical rigor and wry, self-aware banter. The discussion is candid, skeptical of data (and hype), and peppered with memorable analogies to commodity markets and university life. All participants speak openly about uncertainty and the limits of existing policy tools, with humor occasionally leavening the heavy subject matter.

This episode provides a thorough, nuanced, and at times uneasy view of the US labor market's state—and how data gaps, economic headwinds, and hype cycles may be obscuring deeper structural shifts.