Odd Lots: Lots More on What's Going On in Iran's Markets

Bloomberg | Release Date: June 27, 2025

In the latest episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway delve deep into the complexities of Iran’s financial landscape. Titled "Lots More on What's Going On in Iran's Markets," the episode features insightful conversations with Matija Voital, CEO and CIO of Antalon Capital, an Amsterdam-based fund manager specializing in Iranian stocks. This detailed summary captures the episode’s key discussions, insights, and conclusions, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners who haven’t tuned in.

1. Introduction to Iran’s Economic Landscape

The episode opens with Mark Reap setting the stage by highlighting Iran's significant economic standing:

Mark Reap [05:28]: "Iran is actually the 37th biggest economy in the world by nominal GDP... Its scale of underdevelopment is like 10x."

Matija Voital elaborates on the linguistic challenges of discussing such a complex economy, noting the unique aspects of Iranian market dynamics.

2. The Tehran Stock Exchange and Market Operations

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), which Matija Voital describes as:

Matija Voital [05:03]: "It's around $150 billion... We are the only source of this information."

Reap emphasizes the size and diversity of the TSE:

Mark Reap [05:08]: "The Tehran Stock Exchange has more than 600 companies and is worth around $150 billion."

Matija highlights the difficulties in accessing up-to-date information due to internet shutdowns and sanctions, making outside analysis challenging.

3. Impact of Geopolitical Events on Iran’s Markets

Recent geopolitical tensions, including the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, have severely impacted market operations:

Mark Reap [07:11]: "The stock market hasn't opened… economic activity was supposed to resume on a Sunday, but they didn't open."

Voital underscores the volatility and challenges faced:

Matija Voital [07:34]: "Every point is, every once in a while I'm going to check in and see how Tel Aviv is trading on a Sunday or something like that."

Reap and Voital discuss how the market’s closure during critical periods, such as religious holidays and military conflicts, creates uncertainty and hampers economic stability.

4. Operational Challenges for Investors

Investing in Iran presents unique operational hurdles, including:

• Sanctions and Due Diligence: Voital explains the complexities of navigating sanctions, which require meticulous due diligence for each investment decision.

  Matija Voital [09:16]: "You have to do due diligence on every single decision…"

• Currency Exchange Issues: The absence of SWIFT connectivity complicates currency transfers, often taking up to nine months.

  Mark Reap [10:02]: "We have to solve the problems of exchanging currency... It took nine months altogether."

Despite these challenges, Antalon Capital leverages alternative payment corridors and cryptocurrency exchanges to navigate the financial landscape:

Matija Voital [10:45]: "We could track the exchange rate of the Iranian rial versus dollar…"

5. Performance and Sectors of the Iranian Stock Market

Mark Reap provides an overview of the TSE’s sector composition:

Mark Reap [17:34]: "The stock market is well diversified with sectors like chemicals, steel, car manufacturing, financials, and building materials."

Voital adds that:

Matija Voital [28:35]: "You have privately held companies that would like to IPO, but they are just waiting for approval from the regulator…"

The conversation highlights the resilience of key sectors despite geopolitical instability, with the stock market showing growth in profits even as valuations decrease:

Mark Reap [21:53]: "Profits continued to grow, but the stock market was going down… valuations are just cheaper and cheaper."

6. Opportunities and Future Outlook

The hosts explore the potential for significant economic growth contingent on geopolitical shifts:

Mark Reap [22:36]: "The catalyst is absolutely clear. It must be the opening up of Iran as a country and opening up of the economy. And sanctions lifted…"

Voital discusses the “optionality” in investing in Iran’s markets, emphasizing the rare opportunity to access a frontier market with substantial growth potential:

Matija Voital [22:34]: "This is the biggest optionality in public markets that you can find."

They speculate on scenarios that could unlock Iran’s economic potential, such as political changes leading to the lifting of sanctions and increased foreign investment:

Mark Reap [23:31]: "Proper agreement that lists sanctions… opens up the country to everyone, including US Investors… unlocking potential growth from $250 billion to $2.3 trillion GDP."

7. Internal Developments and Capital Controls

The episode addresses internal crackdowns and their impact on capital controls:

Mark Reap [26:09]: "Capital controls have been in place for Iranian entities for some time… foreign investors find it difficult to access, but large multinational companies maintain their operations."

Voital reassures that despite internal challenges, Iran remains open to foreign investment, offering government guarantees and incentives such as residency for significant investments:

Matija Voital [26:33]: "There are programs designed to make your life easier… you get a residency in Iran if you invest around €200,000."

8. Insights on Technology and Private Markets

Reap and Voital touch upon the tech sector within Iran’s markets, noting the presence of enterprise software companies and promising private firms awaiting IPO approval:

Mark Reap [28:33]: "The ones that are listed are related to enterprise software… you have Snap, which is like an Uber, and Digicala, like Amazon."

They highlight the potential for substantial growth in the private sector, urging investors to watch for these emerging companies:

Matija Voital [28:23]: "Look out for them."

9. Conclusion and Future Prospects

The episode concludes with a forward-looking perspective on Iran’s markets, balanced by the challenges and unprecedented opportunities they present. Reap and Voital emphasize the critical need for a geopolitical shift to unlock Iran’s full economic potential, positioning it as a unique frontier market poised for significant growth under the right conditions.

Notable Quotes

• Mark Reap [05:35]: "Iran is a big country that should really have a much bigger economy because of sanctions and various reasons."
• Matija Voital [08:47]: "This is true frontier market investing… this is what the fund manager gets paid for."
• Mark Reap [22:36]: "Proper agreement that lists sanctions… opens up the country to everyone, including US Investors."
• Matija Voital [26:33]: "Foreign investors are welcome… programs are designed to make your life easier."

Final Thoughts

Odd Lots provides an in-depth analysis of Iran's complex market environment, navigating through geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and operational challenges. With expert insights from Matija Voital, the episode sheds light on the intricate dynamics that shape Iran's financial markets and explores the potential for substantial growth should geopolitical conditions improve. This episode is a must-listen for investors and enthusiasts seeking to understand the nuances of one of the world's most challenging yet potentially rewarding markets.