Nassim Taleb on Living a Good Life in an Age of Volatility

Summary

Odd Lots: Nassim Taleb on Living a Good Life in an Age of Volatility

Bloomberg's Odd Lots hosted a compelling live discussion featuring Nassim Nicholas Taleb, renowned scholar, and advisor at Universa Investments. Recorded in New York City on July 4, 2025, Taleb delved into profound insights on navigating life amidst unprecedented volatility. Below is a detailed summary capturing the essence of their conversation.

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1. Defining a Good Life: Usefulness Over Hedonism

Taleb opens the conversation by challenging conventional notions of a "good life."

[01:52] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: "A lot of people think that we're programmed to be happy and stuff like that. In fact, we were programmed to feel useful. That's a good life."

He emphasizes that true fulfillment stems from being useful to others and contributing meaningfully to society, rather than pursuing hedonic pleasures.

[02:10] Taleb: "So whether you have a family and you're providing for them or if for a lot of people who don't have a family yet or may not have a family, the idea is to be useful to the community in general."

2. Information Exchange in the Digital Age

Transitioning to the impact of technology, Taleb contrasts the centralized information era of the past with today's decentralized, interactive information landscape.

[04:10] Taleb: "We spent about a century in front of a TV set or reading papers, where you're on a receiving end, but not providing anything in return."

He highlights how platforms like Twitter have revolutionized information exchange, allowing individuals to both consume and contribute information actively.

3. Social Media and Personal Interaction

The discussion takes a lighter turn as Taleb addresses his presence on social media, particularly Twitter.

[05:19] Taleb: "I'm often giggling when I'm tweeting. So the idea is to separate your public persona from your private life."

He acknowledges the friction between personal interactions and online personas, humorously noting his interactions with followers.

[06:07] Taleb: "They all say, 'Oh, sorry, I had a drink.'"

4. Market Volatility and Perceived Stability

Shifting focus to the financial markets, Taleb comments on the apparent stability despite global upheavals.

[08:40] Taleb: "First of all, you have to separate the health of American companies... the income of the American... your bill went up practically for everything and their income did not."

He critiques the disconnect between corporate performance and individual economic struggles, arguing that tariffs and economic policies fail to address underlying issues.

5. Critique of Trump's Tariffs and Economic Policies

Taleb provides a scathing analysis of former President Trump's tariff policies, illustrating their inconsistency and detrimental effects on the economy.

[09:42] Taleb: "It's lunacy to try to switch... with 4% unemployment in America plus or minus from high margin."

He underscores the flawed logic behind imposing tariffs without considering market adaptations and substitution effects.

6. Investment Philosophy and 'Skin in the Game'

When questioned about his advisory role at Universa Investments, Taleb succinctly outlines his investment philosophy without delving into specific numbers.

[14:00] Taleb: "We didn't change strategy for a second and we will not change strategy. So basically that's what we do is the same thing. It just is getting bigger."

He likens his investment approach to insurance—providing stability and risk mitigation, which has consistently performed well over nearly two decades.

7. Understanding Black Swans and Gray Swans

Taleb elaborates on his theories of black swans and introduces the concept of gray swans—predictable yet rare events that can have significant impacts.

[19:23] Taleb: "Pandemics were gray swans... you can figure out if an environment is fragile or not."

He emphasizes the importance of building robust systems that can withstand or even benefit from such shocks.

8. Current Sources of Fragility in Society

Addressing contemporary vulnerabilities, Taleb identifies key areas where society is structurally fragile.

[21:00] Taleb: "One main source of fragility is that the political system is not adapted to that kind of thing."

He points to the escalating national debt and the unsustainable borrowing practices of developed nations as critical threats.

[23:00] Taleb: "China is representing a larger share of GDP of the world... think you are living in this century thinking it's a different century."

He warns of the shifting geopolitical landscape, highlighting China's growing economic dominance and its implications for global stability.

9. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In wrapping up, Taleb reiterates the necessity of recognizing and addressing systemic fragilities to foster a resilient and meaningful life.

[24:18] Taleb: "Thanks for eating cow meat and thanks for the steak. So next time let's make sure either have organ food or bring wine."

His closing remarks blend humor with a subtle call for mindful consumption and appreciation of life's simpler pleasures.

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Key Takeaways

• Utility Over Pleasure: A fulfilling life is rooted in being useful to others rather than pursuing transient pleasures.

• Decentralized Information: Modern platforms enable active contribution to information exchange, fostering a more engaged society.

• Economic Policies: Tariffs and similar economic measures often fail to address underlying systemic issues and can exacerbate economic fragility.

• Investment Consistency: Maintaining a steadfast investment strategy akin to providing insurance can yield long-term stability and growth.

• Predictable Shocks: Understanding and preparing for gray swans—significant yet foreseeable events—can mitigate their adverse effects.

• Societal Fragility: High national debts and shifting geopolitical powers present critical vulnerabilities that require immediate attention.

Notable Quotes

• On a Good Life:

  "[01:52] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: ... you were programmed to feel useful. That's a good life."

• On Social Media:

  "[05:53] Taleb: ... the idea is to separate your public persona from your private life."

• On Economic Policies:

  "[09:42] Taleb: It's lunacy to try to switch... with 4% unemployment in America..."

• On Investment Philosophy:

  "[14:00] Taleb: We didn't change strategy for a second and we will not change strategy."

• On Black and Gray Swans:

  "[19:23] Taleb: Pandemics were gray swans... you can figure out if an environment is fragile or not."

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This discussion with Nassim Taleb offers invaluable perspectives on living meaningfully amidst tumultuous times, underscoring the importance of resilience, utility, and strategic foresight.

Transcript

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[PGIM Representative]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

Hello odd lots listeners. You are listening to another episode that was recorded live in New York City at our event on 26th. This time it's with the one and only Nassim Nicholas Taleb, distinguished scientist and advisor at Universa Investments.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yep, we talked to him about how to live a good life in a time of immense volatility. Take a listen. Nassim, what's your definition of a good life? What should we be aiming for?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

I mean, a lot of people think that we're programmed to be happy and stuff like that. In fact, we were programmed to feel useful. That's a good life. Or I mean, you don't have to be a martyr to feel useful. As a matter of fact, martyrs go too far. And if you look at their deaths, typically in history, you realize they could have waited a decade and the problem was to solve itself by itself. Right? So think of all the wars and hey, like the Vietnam War took care of itself or the rest. So whatever. So, so let's forget about martyrdom. Except of course in narrow cases where you save someone. So the idea is to be useful to others and then the idea is, you know, to share your mistakes as you grow in age, to share your mistakes with society so they can build on it. That's my idea of a good life. For a lot of people, good life is hedonic in the sense that they have a chef flown in from Europe to eat some complicated food that our friend here would not approve. Really not non steaks, complicated things with long names. And so that's a hedonic approach to things. Mine is you feel useful. So whether you have a family and you're providing for them or if for a lot of people who don't have a family yet or may not have a family, because in the past, most people didn't have a family. A lot of people were orphans. A lot of people had children who didn't survive. So the idea is to be useful to the community in general.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So we talked about this in the market context at the very beginning. But does, you know, I feel this pull to basically always look at my phone to monitor the latest headlines. Sometimes I don't think, like, I'm the best parent because I'm looking at my phone when I should be with my family. As you mentioned, how do we be useful? We're better off being bombarded anytime. We're just being bombarded with events beyond our control.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Okay. Yeah, but. But you're. We're better off than we were today, 40 years, 50 years ago, before many were born. May. Perhaps even you. Right. Yeah. So you don't realize that we spent about a century in front of a TV set or reading papers, where you're on a receiving end, but not providing anything in return. So it was a centralized information era that started, you know, with modernity. And you realize you should see the families eating their dinner in front of the TV set. Basically, you're receiving information, whereas organically, in the past, the way we dealt with information was by trading it. It's like Twitter. You give information, you receive information. So you go to the barber, someone gives you information, and then you go to buy fish, you give the fishmonger information, and then rumors start going. And now we're closer to that period. Because you're not just receiving stuff, you're also tweeting. You know, so although your spouse, I'm sure, tells you not to tweet for not thrilled.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That's correct. Yeah, that's correct.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Okay. It's true.

[Tracy Alloway]

When we're trying to get Joe's attention, we send a DM because he doesn't respond to anything.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

So I'm sure he's tweeting. So you're feeling. You're not just receiving noise, but you're creating.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So I'm contributing. I'm being useful by getting into the noise. Thank you. Very validating.

[Tracy Alloway]

Wait, but do you personally enjoy being on Twitter? Because I read some of your tweets, and, you know, sometimes you seem a little angry.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

No. So just a little. If I were tweeting now in front of all of you, the tweet would look angry, but my face. Wait. Actually, I'm often giggling when I'm tweeting. All right. I'm often giggling. So the Idea is to separate your public Persona from your private life.

[Joe Weisenthal]

By the way, before we forget, before you leave tonight, someone DM me and said, can you please ask Naseem to unblock me on Twitter?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

So I get these all the time. That's probably the most.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Remind me before you leave. It seemed like a nice guy.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

They all say, oh, sorry, I had a drink. Or I don't know, wait, we should actually have it because of Bitcoin. Because I chain block. When you have a smear campaign, you chain block. So the friends. If someone bullies you or you block their friends as well. Yeah, that's right. It was possible at a time.

[Tracy Alloway]

Wait, how many people here have been personally blocked by Naseem Taleb?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Not that many. Not that many. It's a small number. It's not none, though, because. No, no, no. Because I stopped about a couple of years ago from using the chain blocker. Yeah. One, because it had a lot of type 2 error that the false positives. And the other reason is because when Elon took Twitter, he banned these bots. Yeah, so. So they can't operate anymore. You got to do it manually.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Like the third party apps that you.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. They could use to block someone. Their friends, the friends of their friends. The friends, the friends of the friends, and all of that, you know, so.

[PGIM Representative]

Speaking of alternatives, PJIM's monthly podcast discussing trends and strategies in alternative investing.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

There's no question that Mexico's preferential position in the new trade policy will drive incremental demand for industrial real estate and will sequentially drive rent growth as well.

[PGIM Representative]

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[Bloomberg Representative]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

GreenSeattle Are you surprised that in a year of just like unbelievable headlines, seemingly day after day, multiple wars going on, not to mention the trade war and all of that, everything else, doge, et cetera, that the markets are not crazier than they are.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Let me compose a tweet that maybe I'll post. Is for Trump. One. Okay. Trump won. Was taken literally by his enemies, by his and metaphorically by his friends.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Okay.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Trump Too is taken metaphorically by his enemies and literally by his friends.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Explain.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

So whatever he's saying now he's pretty much doing. Did you believe that he was gonna start tariffs? They make no sense. I mean it make sense to get elected in Pennsylvania, but. But I mean it's not the kind of thing you do really. And, and it turned out he meant it. It was not just, you know, a vague. This is really an ordinary metaphor. It was real. He wants tariffs. So maybe he wants to destroy the American economy. Maybe that's his wish. And you could probably put a dentist and yet.

[Joe Weisenthal]

But it's not worked. Whereas stock market's at all time high.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Sorry.

[Joe Weisenthal]

The stock market is all.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

First of all, you have to separate the health of American companies.

[Joe Weisenthal]

No, I get that.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

The income of the American who went to stop and shop. Or was this thing in your area. Not whole food. You guys go to whole food, but normal people go to Costco. Whatever. And then you look at your bill, right? And the bill went up practically for everything and their income did not. And tax breaks to come are not going to help those who don't shop at Toll food because it's the, the, the poor people don't pay taxes anyway. So. So not going to get a break from that. So the idea is there's a lunacy in, in these tariffs. I can understand that we need to protect pharma. We have some strategic interest in this. Okay. You protect the industry. You want to make sure you don't depend on China for other things. But it's a lunacy to try to switch with 4% unemployment in America plus or minus from high margin. I mean you guys are all hard margin. All right. To low margin.

[Joe Weisenthal]

High margin audience.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Yeah, we have a high margin audience to low margin occupations. So now we're going to make socks. Can you imagine the high margin? So making. Instead of making films, we're going to make socks. And, and then also misperception. The whole process of a lot of things in, in, in basic, you know, trade accounting. Like they say. Oh, the ripp. They're ripping us off. I mean I'm a dentist, right. And I go buy my bread. It's ripping me off. Right. I should make my own bread. And then the president probably the baker should be a dentist. So the whole, the whole idea is not. Doesn't stand on. And plus they have, you know, if someone is not very intelligent or not very skilled. And you can detect that at, at. It's like arbitrages. You guys are from financial audience and we Call that trading against themselves. They do a series of trades that end up being closing a loop in circular but was a loss. All right. They used to call that Texas trades, but I think that the state of Texas. It has been unfairly, you know, Texas trades in general. One of them is Texas Hedge. Right. So the. So for example, they have tariffs on components that you would use to build a computer in your basement in New York. Okay. But if you bought an Apple products, then there's no tariff. Although that's made in over. Everything is made overseas manufactured. Okay. So this is an inconsistency. So there are plenty like that. Sure. And there's also. What's his name, the secretary of Treasury. Like Secretary of. Not Treasury. Secretary of Commerce is. Yeah, he. He definitely. Someone should hire him for comedy because he was saying, first of all, he doesn't the inconsistency. He didn't realize. He said, oh, we're going to raise so much money from tariffs. And then when you ask him, you mean that the economy will not adapt to your tariffs by replacement. He didn't think about it. And he wants us to produce to pay tariffs on bananas, so we're going to have substitutes or he spoke about wine. He said, oh, people buy American wine, but what happens if the price of French wine goes up? Okay, there's something called substitution. I don't know if people do that in Europe. They teach high school economics. I mean for children where they teach from substitution. Right. So it's elementary. I mean, I'm saying that he Trump should have hired if he could find people who have some skills. All right.

[Tracy Alloway]

I can't wait to develop my skills growing my own bananas. Banana autarky. Sorry, I can't talk tonight. Okay. I was going to ask. You always preach skin in the game.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Yes.

[Tracy Alloway]

Unlike us journalists. So I got to ask, you're still an advisor to universa. What's been going on there? What are your returns like? Give us all the numbers.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Okay. No, so this is not the place to discuss numbers you won't get right. But you can get general approach and philosophy that I have now to describe in a format as compressed format of what we do and how we do it. We can safely say that as usual, whatever we're doing worked. Okay. In a sense that the idea. Let me consider the idea. The idea is that you can look at the return of that hedge. You got to return the portfolio that was hedged because sort of like when you, when you have an insurance on your house. All right, you look at the package House plus insurance. You don't look at insurance as a tradable thing. Today I'm not going to have insurance, tomorrow I will have. Or how is that paying off? You look at the package, okay. Insurance allows you to buy a bigger house because you know your, your total risk is lower in case of stuff like that. So it's the same situation. And, and the stock market rallied, which means that not only did the hedge do okay, but it wasn't needed. So you're like making money on your insurance. So net net. That story continued and we've been doing it now for. Time flies. We're in 20, 25, 25 minus. Well, it's a lot. Right. So I've done it for 18 years, 18, 19 years directly with Universal and before of course an iteration before and it is that it's the same story. We didn't change strategy for a second and we will not change strategy. So basically that's what we do is the same thing. It just is getting bigger. That's it.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well wait, there are a lot more volatility events nowadays. Do you not adapt to that at all or take that.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Let me tell you, if you look net net. First of all, I don't look at volatility as volatility.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

And in my technical work and Universal doesn't look at volatility. You look at for example, you can have a tail event and then you can have. Or you can have regular volatility. So a lot of people are overall by regular volatility and typically what they call regular volatility. I learned the linguistics of. Of that business is when the market goes down. They don't in the old days when they're losing money they would say oh, the markets are volatile. Volatile doesn't mean it's going up. Volatile is not an absolute mean deviation. Volatile is negative returned. All right, so. So a lot of perception of things of volatility by exact I mean your professional journalist is of course very important. That way you can reveal bad stuff when it's made and things like that. But. But often.

[Tracy Alloway]

Did Nasim just say something nice about journalism?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Yeah, yeah. No, no. There think it's an important mission. But very often the scaling doesn't quite match. Like for example people in journalism and this I wrote about and fooled by randomness. You should have newspapers say lengths of newspapers. Now we don't have newspaper but you understand what I mean. There should be on days like the stock market crash or on last couple of weeks newspapers should be that big and the rest of the Time should be half a page, but they have the same length. Right. So that's the scaling problem in journalism. In other words, you have the news 14 and a half minutes plus you know, of course the Bloomberg ad in the middle. So, so the, I mean that, that news bulletin should be variable with, with, with, with the events. You see the idea. So same thing with market movement. So I don't think that we are experiencing the real volatility compared to what could have happened and what we have seen with explosive markets. Yes.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So as mentioned, multiple wars going on. We had the COVID shock, we had the inflation shock. We have massive changes happening in the political landscape, including right here in New York City. Is there an underlying reason in your view why it feels as though big things are happening?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

No, my whole point is that to go back to.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Or it's just go back to tail.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

To what we call about fat tail, fat tails means the smallest number of event explains the largest number of deviations. For example, if you take a thousand people and you have inequality, one person will have most of the money. Likewise, few historical days have most of the information. Likewise. So this is entirely normal. But the point is you can predict ahead of time that you're going to have when you're going to have these days or you're going to have the structure of it is though very, very stable. Things tend to follow a power law. So.

[Tracy Alloway]

Oh, I'm going to ask a very basic question that I'm sure you get asked all the time, but we are all nevertheless very interested in your answer. By definition, black swans, I guess are unpredictable and impossible to forecast. But what black swans do you see on the horizon?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Okay, so let me rephrase it. Okay. There's something called gray swans. All right, so pandemics were gray swans or you know, gray swans means events that have these characteristics of very small number of events determine large part of the total effect. Like small, small number of events, small number of wars have killed most of the people, stuff like that, pandemics. So there's grace ones and you can say they have a structure. You predict them ahead of time. You don't know. Okay, but what we do is you can figure out if an environment is fragile or not. And in the fragile environments you can say, okay, this is prone to break if there's a shot. Like in 2007, we knew that banks were fragile. Why were there net short volatility? That's sort of my fragility work in antifragile. To answer your question, I wrote antifragile which on its own became a monster. But the whole idea is to figure out what can have cascading effect from shocks. Okay. As I wrote in the Black Swan, it's foolish to say what color truck is going to break a fragile bridge. Okay? But it is not foolish to say this bridge is fragile. It's going to break one day. Don't cross it, don't, don't. Or invite your enemies to, you know.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay, okay. What areas of fragility do you see right now?

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

So the first one I'm learning. Okay, so the first one is we have a, I don't know if you're aware of it, maybe people aren't aware yet that I don't know if we know we have a deficit.

[Tracy Alloway]

Oh, I heard about this.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

And you know that you have to borrow, you know, to pay for the interest rates, for the interest, you know, the, the debt that you've had before. And at 4 north of 4% interest rates, 4 to 5% interest rate, this is significant. Means you can have a snowballing effect. You have to borrow more and more. And you know that they're not fixing the budget problem except verbally. Hey, we're going to fix the budget. It's all the same story. The structure of the political system unfortunately is driving us there. Okay, so this is one source of fragility. One main source of fragility, okay, is that the political system is not adapted to that kind of thing. So what happened in the western world, it's not just the case of the United States, it's a case of the western world. Because you got to look at it as I describe an antifragiles. Think of an S curve like China can have rapid growth because they're pulling people out of their beautifully landscaped countryside to put them in apartment blocks that maybe it's not pleasant for, for the people, you know, to, to live in, in boxes, but that generates a huge amount of economic growth. Okay? So a lot of people going up the so called development scale, you're, you're on the convex part of the S curve, okay. The west is on the concave part of the S curve. So which means that you have two cargo. Most except New York, New Yorkers live in small boxes like, like, like poor people in middle ages. But outside New York City in a real, most people have two car garages, stuff like that. So you, you, you, we can't, you can't grow, right? And you don't have poor people so you have to import them from El Salvador, Fanama, A lot of people. You don't have poor people. So, so you don't to create that kind of thing. And, and, and even, and now you don't want them anymore. You know, they don't want, you don't want everybody, you know, so, so they have a problem is that gross in America is structurally declining. Yeah. Well, at the same time, the debt burden is structurally increasing. You see that diversion and that applies to the rest of the developed world because you develop, you're arriving to destination. Why are you still borrowing? The problem is most countries tend to borrow when they're already rich, when they don't need it anymore, just like people on Wall Street. These people are on Wall street. They probably borrow a lot now. They're already rich. All right, Whereas poor people don't borrow. So that's a big problem. That's number one problem. The second one is China is representing a larger, larger share of GDP of the world. And so you're going to think that geopolitics aren't going to be the same and you don't want to live, you know, in the wrong century. Think you're living in this century thinking it's a different century.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right. Nasim T. Yeah. Thank you so much.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Thanks. Thanks for eating cow meat and thanks for the steak. So next time let's make sure either have organ food or bring wine.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Definitely have wine. Thank you so much.

[Tracy Alloway]

This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArman, dash obnit at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kalebrooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.comoddlots where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about these topics 247 in our Discord, Discord GG oddlots.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Oddlots, if you like it when we do these live recordings, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening.

[Bloomberg Representative]

Join us in Seattle July 14th and 15th for Bloomberg Green two days of powerful conversations and meaningful connections. We'll explore what's next in the climate, economy, clean tech policy and greener living. Featured speakers include Jane Fonda, Brian Gellert and Vinod Khosla. The title sponsor is Amazon. Official airlines are Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines. Learn [e-mail] GreenSeattle that's bloomberglive.com GreenSeattle this.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]

Is an iHeart podcast.