Odd Lots Podcast Summary
Episode: Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech
Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway
Guest: Ozan Tarman, Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank
Overview
This episode explores the simultaneous, extraordinary rise in both gold and tech stocks, a dynamic that's been puzzling investors and economists. Joe, Tracy, and guest Ozan Tarman dig into the global market forces, investor psychology, monetary and fiscal policy shifts, and international currency dynamics that are driving asset prices. Ozan brings unique insight, combining client feedback from top institutions around the world with a candid take on risk, central bank policy, and the mood among professional investors.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Unusual Dual Rally: Gold & Tech
- Traditional Theory Broken: Typically, rising optimism drives equities while fear lifts gold. The current market, however, features both rallying strongly.
- Quote (Tracy): “It's not really supposed to happen... like you're not supposed to see stocks shoot up... while gold simultaneously goes up.” (02:08)
- Gold’s Role Shifting: Gold is seen less as a mere symbol of fear, more a store of value amid currency and sovereign concerns.
- Quote (Joe): “When people are fearful... don’t trust fiat currencies or the governments... I understand why people want to hold this metal.” (02:52)
2. Why Gold Is Rallying
- Distrust in Sovereigns: Globally, central banks (e.g., Turkey, Russia) are accumulating gold reserves to reduce dollar dependency due to US political/geopolitical risk.
- Quote (Ozan): “More and more countries are building up their reserves in gold, shying away from a dollar more.” (25:55)
- Uncertainty & Geopolitics: Ongoing global instability, sanctions, and political violence reinforce gold’s momentum.
- Parallel to Rate Cycle: Gold works “in risk on and risk off,” benefitting both when investors anticipate cuts or seek havens. (05:08)
3. What’s Behind the Tech Boom (Especially Nvidia & AI)
- Nvidia as Economic Engine: The firm’s AI-related CapEx has become so significant it might be “keeping us away from a recession.”
- Quote (Ozan): “Nvidia is almost keeping us away from a recession. All that chip story, all the Capex spending. If it wasn't for that, maybe we could either question or be in a recession.” (06:24)
- Self-Reinforcing AI Investment: Circular flows (Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle) fuel the rally, with even skeptics unwilling to pull back as cash flow metrics remain real.
- Magnificent Seven’s Global Pull: Tech titans are so compelling that international investors keep buying, often (now) using currency hedges.
4. The Weakening Dollar and Shifts in Global Flows
- Dollar Drop’s Importance: US assets may look robust but, adjusted for the falling dollar, global investors are hedging or reducing exposure.
- Quote (Ozan): “All of the Mag 7 ... people want exposure... just don’t want to take the risk that [the] dollar ... is going to go down further.” (17:51)
- International Demand Hedged: 80% or more of non-US flows into US tech are now hedged, dampening the impact of new inflows on the dollar. (15:53)
- De-dollarization: Sovereigns and institutions gradually rebalance away from the dollar, impacting global macro structure.
5. Fiscal Dominance & Fed Independence Anxiety
- Nervousness on the Sovereign, Not Corporate Side: Investors see US companies as strong but view US government institutions with greater skepticism, driving gold and FX trends.
- Quote (Joe): “...there's all this anxiety about the US as a sovereign... other countries have sovereign risk, they're just usually not home to literally the most impressive companies in the world.” (19:34)
- Volatility Falling, Paradoxically: Despite fiscal and Fed worries, bond volatility is at multi-year lows (MOVE Index), suggesting complacency (24:50).
6. Political Risk & Gold’s Non-Market Drivers
- US Instability: Political violence and institutional stress intensify gold’s appeal.
- Key Policy Events: Trade/tariff policy, potential rate cuts, and unexpected changes (e.g., US–China détente) could change gold’s trajectory, but currently no major shocks are expected to alter the bullish status quo. (27:37–28:01)
7. Tariffs & Stagflation
- Tariffs as Revenue: For the US, tariffs are as much about revenue as trade confrontation. Their effect on growth is contentious but hasn't derailed equities.
- Stagflation Camp: Some investors still fear tariffs could rekindle inflation and slow growth (i.e., stagflation), but data hasn't proven them right yet. (29:43–31:42)
8. Asset Prices & The Real Economy
- Growth Dependent on Rising Assets: The US economy increasingly relies on perpetual asset price growth to sustain demand and sentiment.
- Quote (Ozan): “You need ... the next thing... American [economy] relies on growth, relies on animal spirits, relies on those asset classes to go higher and higher.” (32:37)
- Widening Wealth Gap: The wealth effect concentrates, with the top 10% driving consumption.
9. Europe & China: Contrasts and Connections
- China Rebounds in Unexpected Ways: Despite growth fears, China tech and RMB strength surprise consensus. China is also becoming a global gold storage hub.
- Quote (Ozan): “They did become a gold doing a Switzerland.” (37:13)
- Exporting Disinflation: Cheap Chinese exports drive down inflation in Europe, potentially leading the ECB to consider rate cuts. (37:31–40:14)
- Tariff effects: Despite renewed trade friction, tariffs are currently lower on the market’s worry list.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
On Gold & Risk:
“Gold works in risk on and risk off... At the moment it works for a reason.” — Ozan Tarman (05:08)
On Tech’s Macro Role:
“Nvidia is almost keeping us away from a recession... If it wasn't for that, maybe we could either question or be in a recession.” — Ozan Tarman (06:24)
Global Investment Flows:
“80% of them are hedged. So people are buying their new Nvidia hedged. So believe it or not, 80% is a big number.” — Ozan Tarman (15:53)
Trust in Institutions:
“There's all this anxiety about the US as a sovereign... That’s the tension — all the investor nervousness is on the sovereign side, not the corporate.” — Joe Weisenthal (19:34)
On Policy & Financial Repression:
“Are we becoming a bit emerging marketized? What do you mean by Treasury and Fed working even closely together? ... So far those who bet towards that... did better on their long US views.” — Ozan Tarman (36:25)
China’s Surprises:
“Even though China’s growth has been slowing... if you look at something like the Shanghai composite, it feels like people are starting to get a little more optimistic.” — Tracy Alloway (37:16)
Important Segments & Timestamps
- Intro, the Mystery of Rising Gold and Tech: [01:44–05:00]
- Ozan Tarman on Gold’s Current Position: [05:08–06:56]
- Nvidia & Tech as Macro Engines: [06:56–10:16]
- Market Structure and Global Flows Discussion: [15:29–19:34]
- Dollar Hedging & US Sovereign vs Corporate Trust: [17:51–20:06]
- Fiscal Dominance, Volatility & Fed Independence: [20:09–25:09]
- Gold as a Political & Geopolitical Hedge: [25:09–28:01]
- Tariffs, Stagflation, and Macro Impacts: [29:11–31:42]
- The Wealth Effect & Asset-Driven Economy: [32:37–34:00]
- US “Emerging Marketization” & Policy: [34:00–36:52]
- China Trade, Currency Strength & Disinflation: [36:52–40:14]
- Hosts’ Debrief: [40:54–41:45]
Tone & Style
- Conversational, insightful, and sometimes satirical—matching the playful but incisive way Odd Lots tackles complex finance topics.
- Ozan Tarman offers a blend of data-driven analysis and informal observations from “roundtables” and client dinners, lending color and immediacy to the macro narrative.
Conclusion
The 2025 market is defined by the concurrent boom in both gold (the classic fear hedge) and tech stocks (the epicenter of risk-on optimism), driven by unique macro forces: global distrust in sovereigns, persistent fiscal and policy uncertainty, relentless innovation in US tech, shifts in global capital flows, and complex geopolitical dynamics. Investors around the world are balancing optimism in US corporate giants with anxiety about US institutions, increasingly hedging their bets and diversifying into gold and non-dollar assets. As always, the real story is at the intersection of markets, politics, and psychology.