Odd Lots – "Risky Business Preview" Episode Summary

Date: November 23, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg Odd Lots)
Guests/Featured Hosts: Maria Konnikova, Nate Silver (Risky Business)
Podcast Highlighted: Risky Business (Pushkin Industries & iHeartMedia)

Overview

This episode of Odd Lots serves as a preview and cross-promotion of the new podcast "Risky Business" hosted by Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. The focus is on how decisions are made, with an emphasis on understanding risk, incentives, probabilities, and the ways these themes play out in politics, markets, sports, personal life, and pop culture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction to "Risky Business"

• Joe and Tracy introduce the new podcast, highlighting that it centers on insightful and entertaining explorations of risk and decision-making, produced by Pushkin Industries.
• The Odd Lots hosts reflect on previous interactions with Nate and Maria, particularly their expertise in prediction markets ([00:15–00:28]).

2. The Hosts' Credentials and Unique Perspectives

• Nate Silver: Founder of FiveThirtyEight, renowned journalist, and political analyst, known for his rigorous, data-driven approach.
• Maria Konnikova: PhD in psychology, bestselling author, former New Yorker contributor, and poker player.
• Both hosts are experienced in high-stakes poker, providing real-world experience with risk and decision-making ([00:28–00:44]).

3. What to Expect from "Risky Business"

• The show promises to dissect the odds, incentives, and risks behind headline events, ranging from politics and sports to personal choices and even reality TV ([00:44–01:03]).
• The central theme: How do people make good decisions in uncertain environments?

4. The Philosophical Approach to Risk

• Maria sets the tone:

  “Poker isn't just about playing cards. It's about making good decisions. It's about a framework for thinking about the world.” ([01:36–02:16])

• They intend to use their poker experience as a lens to analyze broader topics and empower listeners to approach uncertainties with strategic thinking.

5. The Intersection of Math, Psychology, and Everyday Life

• Maria praises Nate’s "rigorous, logical, mathematical perspective" ([01:36–02:03]).
• Nate acknowledges Maria’s psychological and philosophical depth, suggesting the show balances logic and human factors effectively:

  "You're a little bit more even-keeled than I am too, which sometimes is a great influence on me." ([02:03–02:16])

• The show will draw on concepts like expected value, game theory, and strategic thinking in political and everyday contexts ([02:58–03:14]).

6. Broad Range of Topics

• From poker and gambling to political tactics, news, and the psychology of personal decision-making.
• The intent is to go beyond headlines and statistics, examining underlying frameworks and incentives that guide choices in high and low stakes alike ([02:58–03:27]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Maria Konnikova:

  "Poker isn't just about playing cards. It's about making good decisions. It's about a framework for thinking about the world." ([01:36])

• Nate Silver:

  "How do things like expected value or game theory affect decisions that affect all of our lives?" ([03:03])

• Maria Konnikova:

  "We'll also be talking about kind of the more personal elements, psychology, philosophy and the decisions that we make in our daily lives that don't have anything to do with the news but have everything to do with living well." ([03:14])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:15–00:28: Reflections on past prediction market discussions with Nate and Maria
• 00:44–01:03: Explanation of "Risky Business" and its premise
• 01:36–02:16: The poker framework and balancing statistical with psychological perspectives
• 02:58–03:27: Broad coverage—from politics to personal choices—and the show’s goals

Tone and Speaker Style

The preview balances analytical sharpness (Nate’s math/statistics focus) with accessibility and warmth (Maria’s psychological/philosophical orientation). The exchange is witty, self-aware, and both hosts display enthusiasm for making risk analysis both practical and engaging.

Conclusion

The "Risky Business Preview" episode positions the show as a blend of statistical rigor and human insight—delving into how risk shapes everything from elections to everyday life. With two world-class thinkers who’ve bet big at the poker table and in the world’s headlines, listeners can expect smart, substantive, and sometimes playful explorations of why and how we make high-stakes decisions.

If intrigued, listeners are encouraged to find "Risky Business" for full episodes released every Wednesday and Saturday.