Risky Business Preview

Summary

Odd Lots – "Risky Business Preview" Episode Summary

Date: November 23, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg Odd Lots)
Guests/Featured Hosts: Maria Konnikova, Nate Silver (Risky Business)
Podcast Highlighted: Risky Business (Pushkin Industries & iHeartMedia)

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Overview

This episode of Odd Lots serves as a preview and cross-promotion of the new podcast "Risky Business" hosted by Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. The focus is on how decisions are made, with an emphasis on understanding risk, incentives, probabilities, and the ways these themes play out in politics, markets, sports, personal life, and pop culture.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction to "Risky Business"

• Joe and Tracy introduce the new podcast, highlighting that it centers on insightful and entertaining explorations of risk and decision-making, produced by Pushkin Industries.
• The Odd Lots hosts reflect on previous interactions with Nate and Maria, particularly their expertise in prediction markets ([00:15–00:28]).

2. The Hosts' Credentials and Unique Perspectives

• Nate Silver: Founder of FiveThirtyEight, renowned journalist, and political analyst, known for his rigorous, data-driven approach.
• Maria Konnikova: PhD in psychology, bestselling author, former New Yorker contributor, and poker player.
• Both hosts are experienced in high-stakes poker, providing real-world experience with risk and decision-making ([00:28–00:44]).

3. What to Expect from "Risky Business"

• The show promises to dissect the odds, incentives, and risks behind headline events, ranging from politics and sports to personal choices and even reality TV ([00:44–01:03]).
• The central theme: How do people make good decisions in uncertain environments?

4. The Philosophical Approach to Risk

• Maria sets the tone:

  “Poker isn't just about playing cards. It's about making good decisions. It's about a framework for thinking about the world.” ([01:36–02:16])

• They intend to use their poker experience as a lens to analyze broader topics and empower listeners to approach uncertainties with strategic thinking.

5. The Intersection of Math, Psychology, and Everyday Life

• Maria praises Nate’s "rigorous, logical, mathematical perspective" ([01:36–02:03]).
• Nate acknowledges Maria’s psychological and philosophical depth, suggesting the show balances logic and human factors effectively:

  "You're a little bit more even-keeled than I am too, which sometimes is a great influence on me." ([02:03–02:16])

• The show will draw on concepts like expected value, game theory, and strategic thinking in political and everyday contexts ([02:58–03:14]).

6. Broad Range of Topics

• From poker and gambling to political tactics, news, and the psychology of personal decision-making.
• The intent is to go beyond headlines and statistics, examining underlying frameworks and incentives that guide choices in high and low stakes alike ([02:58–03:27]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Maria Konnikova:

  "Poker isn't just about playing cards. It's about making good decisions. It's about a framework for thinking about the world." ([01:36])

• Nate Silver:

  "How do things like expected value or game theory affect decisions that affect all of our lives?" ([03:03])

• Maria Konnikova:

  "We'll also be talking about kind of the more personal elements, psychology, philosophy and the decisions that we make in our daily lives that don't have anything to do with the news but have everything to do with living well." ([03:14])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:15–00:28: Reflections on past prediction market discussions with Nate and Maria
• 00:44–01:03: Explanation of "Risky Business" and its premise
• 01:36–02:16: The poker framework and balancing statistical with psychological perspectives
• 02:58–03:27: Broad coverage—from politics to personal choices—and the show’s goals

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Tone and Speaker Style

The preview balances analytical sharpness (Nate’s math/statistics focus) with accessibility and warmth (Maria’s psychological/philosophical orientation). The exchange is witty, self-aware, and both hosts display enthusiasm for making risk analysis both practical and engaging.

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Conclusion

The "Risky Business Preview" episode positions the show as a blend of statistical rigor and human insight—delving into how risk shapes everything from elections to everyday life. With two world-class thinkers who’ve bet big at the poker table and in the world’s headlines, listeners can expect smart, substantive, and sometimes playful explorations of why and how we make high-stakes decisions.

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If intrigued, listeners are encouraged to find "Risky Business" for full episodes released every Wednesday and Saturday.

Transcript

[Joe]

Hey, Joe and Tracy here. We're stopping by to share with you another podcast we think you'll really enjoy and find to be insightful, sharp and entertaining from Pushkin Industries. It's called Risky Business and it's hosted by our friends Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova.

[Maria Konnikova]

Right.

[Tracy]

You might remember Nate and Maria from when they joined us last year to talk about political prediction markets. We were talking about how they work, how accurate they actually are, and what they can tell us about election campaigns and their outcomes.

[Joe]

Or you might be familiar with their work. Nate's the founder of FiveThirtyEight, an esteemed journalist and a political analyst. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is a New York Times best selling author. And they're both high stakes poker players. So they know a thing or two about taking risks, making bets and calling out gloves.

[Tracy]

On Risky Business, they look at how decisions are made and they break down the odds, incentives and risks behind the headlines to understand who's making moves and why. So they look at everything from politics to to sports to personal decisions, AI hype electoral races, and of course, reality tv.

[Joe]

Enjoy this preview of Risky Business and if you like it, find Risky Business wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes released twice a week on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

[Maria Konnikova]

Hey, everyone, I'm maria konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

I'm nate silver and this is.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm Maria Konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

I'm Nate Silver and this is Risky.

[Maria Konnikova]

Business, a show about making good decisions. We did it. We're so good. We're so smart. This podcast is going to be amazing. So, Nate, I'm really excited to be hosting this show with you because you're a statistician, you're someone who comes at the the world from a very rigorous, logical, mathematical perspective. And I think that this is just such a beautiful perspective to look at risk and risky decision making.

[Nate Silver]

And Maria, I'm excited to be hosting with you. I mean, we're great friends, but you're also a PhD in psychology, you've written multiple bestselling books, you have worked for the New Yorker. You're a little bit more even keeled than I am too, which sometimes is a great influence on me.

[Maria Konnikova]

Plus, obviously, we're both poker players and we've both won and as you always point out, lost. Yep, hundreds of thousands of dollars in the world of poker tournaments. And so that's a lens that we're going to be using to approach this entire show. Because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's about making good decisions. It's about a framework for thinking about the world. And in risky business, that's what we're going to be doing. We're going to be helping our listeners understand decision making using this framework. So what exactly are we going to be talking about? Well, obviously we're going to be talking about poker and the world of gambling.

[Nate Silver]

We'll be talking about politics and the news as well. Look, we'll talk about the probabilities there, as well as tactics and strategy around politics and current events. How do things like expected value or game theory affect decisions that affect all of our lives?

[Maria Konnikova]

And obviously, we'll also be talking about kind of the more personal elements, psychology, philosophy and the decisions that we make in our daily lives that don't have anything to do with the news but have everything to do with living well.

[Nate Silver]

The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia, and it's available wherever you want to listen.