Odd Lots Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Scott Kupor's New Plan to Bring Tech Workers Into the Federal Government
Date: December 25, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg)
Guest: Scott Kupor, Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), former venture capitalist (Andreessen Horowitz)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into Scott Kupor’s ambitious initiative—US TechForce—to bring a thousand early-career technologists into the federal government. Kupor, now leading OPM after a storied career in venture capital, discusses the challenges of federal tech hiring, the cultural and operational barriers, lessons from the private sector, and how this program aims not just to update codebases, but to fundamentally rethink how government can attract, manage, and retain talent.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Federal Tech Workforce Dilemma (02:52 – 05:41)

• Public-sector technology and hiring presents complex challenges: rigid operational processes, bureaucratic obstacles, outdated systems, and high barriers to attracting tech talent.
• Many problems found in government hiring are also endemic to large private organizations; bureaucracy itself creates similar bottlenecks everywhere.
  • “It’s endemic to bureaucracy.” — Tracy Alloway (04:22)
• The Trump administration’s focus on AI competition with China has lent urgency to government tech modernization.

2. The Role of OPM & Kupor’s Motivation (06:09 – 08:51)

• The OPM acts as the "talent management organization" for federal employees—overseeing hiring, firing, performance management, and HR policy for roughly 2.1 million workers.
• Kupor transitioned from Andreessen Horowitz seeking impact:
  • “Companies succeed or fail almost entirely because of the people...Why can't we learn some of those lessons and apply them as appropriate to the federal government?” — Scott Kupor (07:47)

3. Introducing US TechForce (08:51 – 11:52)

• US TechForce aims to bring 1,000 engineers (software, AI, data science, product) into government for two-year stints.
• Focuses on two main issues:
  • Lack of "modern software expertise and modern AI technology expertise"—government teams are overwhelmed maintaining legacy systems, with little bespoke development.
  • Acute early-career pipeline problem: only 7% of federal workers are early-career, compared to 22–23% in the private sector; nearly half the workforce is over 50.
• The two-year structure exposes young workers to government service and lets them return to the private sector or stay; broad partnership with private tech companies includes job fairs post-program.
  • “If at the end of the two-year period they want to go back to the private sector, that’s great.” — Scott Kupor (11:16)

4. Why Has Government Struggled to Attract Tech Talent? (15:06 – 18:37)

• Cultural and messaging problems: Government work is often pitched as "lifetime employment"—an unattractive myth for the current generation.
  • “That’s the worst, least compelling kind of narrative that I’ve ever heard...come work for the government and have lifetime employment.” — Scott Kupor (15:45)
• Zero-risk culture: Compliance, fear of audit, and congressional scrutiny stifle innovation and appropriate risk-taking.
• Compensation: While salary matters, Kupor argues it's overemphasized; more manageable early-career, and most people value learning, challenge, and development.

5. Fixing Structural Barriers: Hiring & Performance (18:37 – 29:47)

• Historic reliance on tenure and degree requirements for pay; e.g., GS schedule—Kupor is eliminating these for tech roles, moving toward a skills- and performance-based system.
  • “We’re going to eliminate all degree requirements and all tenure requirements in the pay schedule. ... It’s the opposite of a merit-based culture.” — Scott Kupor (21:35)
• For decades, hiring relied on self-attestation of skills (“I’m a 10x engineer!”)—no actual assessments due to a 1981 consent decree on civil service exams. That’s now changed; merit-based, technical assessments (like private sector code tests) are being implemented.
• Performance review culture in government is largely broken and uninformative; nearly everyone rated above average. Reform includes forced distributions for senior roles and tying compensation more tightly to measured performance.
  • “Basically everybody is in Lake Wobegon and well, well above average.” — Scott Kupor (26:15)
  • “Let’s actually really pay for performance and let’s differentiate compensation.” — Scott Kupor (29:09)

6. The Critical Role of Product Management (29:47 – 31:20)

• Product management—distinct from project management—is essential as translators between tech and end users. The lack of these roles stifles effective results and communication in government tech projects.

7. Knowledge Transfer and Institutional Memory (31:20 – 36:10)

• High turnover and impending retirements threaten institutional knowledge. Kupor points to documentation and structured handoff requirements (as in private industry) to maintain continuity.
  • Real-world example: digital transformation of the federal retirement application system.

8. Streamlining Government Processes & Cultural Change (39:44 – 43:35)

• “Moving fast and breaking things” isn’t feasible; instead, focus is on prioritized headcount planning, eliminating obsolete tasks, cultural performance management overhaul, and ensuring teams of tech workers are embedded as functional units—not just scattered as isolated individuals.

9. Respect, Morale, and the Reputation of Public Service (43:35 – 50:45)

• Kupor emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and transparent communication in organizational change, reflecting on his experience at Andreessen Horowitz.
  • “You have to demonstrate to them that it wasn’t capricious and arbitrary and that you’re not lying to them and a jerk, but that you actually do care about them.” — Scott Kupor (45:34)
• Most recent government layoffs were actually voluntary retirements, but maintaining respect for remaining workers and acknowledging their value is paramount.

10. Managing Risk and Guardrails (50:45 – 56:05)

• Culture of over-compliance impedes sensible risk-taking; Kupor’s example: improving interim pension payments for retirees by accepting minimal financial risk, vastly improving public service delivery.
  • “We have so ingrained in the culture that risk, any kind of risk, is bad without actually people being willing to have the conversation to say, okay, what is the cost of that risk relative to the upside opportunity that taking that risk entails?” — Scott Kupor (54:41)

11. AI Diffusion in Government (56:05 – 62:50)

• Discussing Tyler Cowen’s thesis that true AI impact will come from orgs built “AI native”—Kupor agrees, adding that the government will be “100x less incremental” than the private sector, but that moving toward incremental productivity gains is realistic and valuable.
  • “I’m not asking you...to go build the 2040 AI plan...What I want you to do is look at a process you do today and figure out can you use an AI tool to help you get 3, 5, 10% greater performance out of your organization?” — Scott Kupor (58:05)
• Government is just starting to allow tools like ChatGPT on work computers; concerns about open vs closed source models due to security, but progress is very early-stage.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Myth of Lifetime Employment:
  “That’s the worst, least compelling kind of narrative that I’ve ever heard...come work for the government and have lifetime employment.” — Scott Kupor (15:45)
• On Breaking Path Dependencies:
  “We’re going to eliminate all degree requirements and all tenure requirements in the pay schedule. ... It’s the opposite of a merit-based culture.” — Scott Kupor (21:35)
• On Performance Management Inflation:
  “...About 80 plus percent of people get ranked a 4 or a 5...So basically everybody is in Lake Wobegon and well, well above average.” — Scott Kupor (26:15)
• On Risk:
  “If you look at the government culture, there’s no concept of measured risk… We have a zero risk based culture inside of government. ... We have to enable people to think about the upside opportunity that comes from taking modest amounts of risk.” — Scott Kupor (16:16)
• On AI and Innovation:
  “If the private sector is incremental, the federal government's going to be like, you know, 100x less incremental...But that’s okay.” — Scott Kupor (57:53)
• Comic Relief:
  Joe and Tracy joke about tech clichés (ping pong tables, matcha bars) and their love of giant federal records mines (33:38).

Important Timestamps

• 02:52 – 05:41: Framing the government tech hiring problem and the need for private-sector lessons
• 06:27 – 08:51: Kupor on his journey from VC to government
• 09:24 – 11:52: Details of US TechForce initiative
• 15:29 – 18:37: Diagnosing why federal government is unattractive for tech workers
• 18:37 – 22:11: Tackling the compensation question and skills-based pay reforms
• 22:29 – 23:06: History of self-attestation and new merit-based hiring practices
• 26:15 – 29:47: Performance review reform and compensation
• 31:20 – 32:49: The pivotal role of product managers in tech modernization
• 33:12 – 36:10: Documentation and knowledge transfer amidst staff turnover
• 40:12 – 43:35: How new teams will be integrated to avoid getting “swallowed by the beast”
• 43:35 – 50:45: The challenge of layoffs, morale, and public respect for government work
• 51:28 – 56:05: Institutional guardrails, risk-aversion, and changing culture
• 56:05 – 62:50: Government’s journey with AI and open source adoption

Flow & Tone

The episode maintains Odd Lots’ signature blend of rigor and wit, with humor surfacing around bureaucracy, tech culture clichés, and inside-baseball stories about government and Silicon Valley. Kupor’s style is candid and optimistic, pragmatic about the bureaucratic limitations but ultimately aimed at concrete (if incremental) change.

Useful Takeaways for the Uninitiated

• US TechForce is a unique, large-scale attempt to bring actual modern tech skills and culture into government by meeting talented workers where they are, not demanding lifelong careers.
• The federal government is (slowly) catching up with modern HR trends—skills-based hiring, project-based roles, performance-related pay, and technical skills assessments.
• The battle is not purely technical; it is cultural—about making government a place where risk, innovation, and performance matter and are respected.
• AI and other cutting-edge tech will reach their full, transformative potential in government only incrementally, and mostly by making existing processes smarter.
• The process of bringing tech talent into government is itself a lesson in organizational change, respect, and the perennial need to challenge entrenched narratives about public service and bureaucracy.