Odd Lots Podcast Summary
Episode: The Big Gulf AI Deal That's Divided the White House
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway
Guest: Mackenzie Hawkins, Tech and Geopolitics Reporter at Bloomberg News
Release Date: June 14, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Bloomberg's Odd Lots, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway delve into the controversial AI deals orchestrated during former President Donald Trump's recent visit to the Gulf States. These deals have sparked significant debate within the White House, highlighting the complex interplay between economic competitiveness and national security concerns in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI).

Trump's Gulf AI Deal: An Overview

Joe Weisenthal initiates the discussion by referencing Trump's Middle East visit, emphasizing the substantial AI-related agreements that were signed during his trip.

"It's a few weeks ago, but last month Trump was in the Middle East and he sold a bunch of chips." (01:41)

Tracy Alloway adds context by describing the ceremonial aspects of Trump's visit, including a notable Emirati women's hair-flipping dance, symbolizing the blend of cultural grandeur and economic ambition in the region.

"When Trump arrived in the UAE, part of his big greeting was a bunch of Emirati women doing a hair flipping dance." (01:58)

The Essence of the AI Deals

Guest Mackenzie Hawkins provides a detailed breakdown of the AI deals, revealing that over a four-day period, American tech firms and Gulf nations announced AI infrastructure projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars. These initiatives primarily focus on building data centers equipped with advanced AI chips necessary for training and deploying large language models.

"One of the biggest data centers potentially in the world, anchored by The Abu Dhabi AI firm G42, with key participation from Oracle, OpenAI, Nvidia, and Advanced Micro Devices." (04:23)

These deals mark a significant shift, introducing the UAE and Saudi Arabia as new major players in AI infrastructure, challenging the existing dominance of the U.S. and China.

Political and Economic Debates in Washington

The announcement of these deals has polarized opinions within the U.S. government. Marc Reape outlines two primary areas of contention:

1. Economic Competitiveness:
   Criticism arises from Democrats questioning the decision to build data centers abroad rather than domestically.

   "Why are we building a data center in Abu Dhabi when we could be doing that in Ohio or in Pennsylvania?" (06:08)

   Proponents argue that dual investments—domestic and international—are being pursued through bilateral arrangements, ensuring reciprocal benefits.

2. National Security and China Concerns:
   The core of the debate centers on the potential for AI technology sold to Gulf nations to inadvertently benefit China. This includes fears of data diversion and technological espionage, prompting stringent export controls.

   "What conditions is the US Going to put on these deals to ensure that you're safeguarding American technology and know-how?" (08:04)

Export Controls and Safeguards

Mackenzie Hawkins elaborates on the mechanisms in place to prevent the misuse of exported AI technology. The U.S. has established a limited number of export control officers tasked with monitoring the physical facilities and ensuring that chips are not diverted to adversarial nations like China. Additionally, high-level bilateral agreements between the U.S. and the UAE include stringent provisions to restrict China's remote access and investment capabilities in the region.

"The U.S. government has a small handful of export control officers that can check physical facilities and ensure chips aren't diverted to China." (08:24)

Despite these safeguards, there are concerns that the rapid announcement of these deals may have outpaced the implementation of comprehensive security measures.

Global Implications and the AI Race

The episode further explores the broader implications of the U.S.-China AI rivalry. While some, like David Sacks, advocate for the unfettered global diffusion of U.S. technology to maximize market share, others emphasize the risks of technology falling into the hands of geopolitical rivals.

"David Sachs defined winning in the AI race as capturing the vast majority of the global market for AI hardware." (13:15)

Mackenzie Hawkins provides insights into China's current AI chip production capabilities, highlighting a significant gap between China's domestic production and its demand for AI accelerators. She notes that despite U.S. restrictions, intermediaries like TSMC have facilitated substantial chip sales to China, which could potentially bolster China's AI ambitions.

"China can produce around 380,000 of its most advanced AI chips domestically, and that will reach multiple millions next year." (17:34)

Regulatory Shifts and Future Prospects

Marc Reape discusses the evolution of U.S. export controls under different administrations. The Biden administration's AI Diffusion Rule categorized countries into tiers based on their trustworthiness and potential risk of technology diversion. However, the Trump administration is pivoting towards bilateral agreements, as evidenced by the recent Gulf deals, signaling a shift from broad regulations to targeted, country-specific arrangements.

"The deals in the UAE and Saudi Arabia indicate a move from global regulation to country-specific deals negotiated bilaterally." (25:13)

Critical Infrastructure and Strategic Dependencies

Tracy Alloway raises concerns about the strategic implications of building critical AI infrastructure in regions like the UAE, a key supplier of oil to the U.S. She questions whether deepening technological ties in such regions might increase strategic dependencies, potentially compromising national security.

"Should we be building more critical infrastructure in a place like the UAE, given our existing dependencies on the Middle East?" (27:30)

Conclusion

The episode concludes with reflections on the intertwined nature of commercial interests and national security in the AI sector. While the pursuit of economic competitiveness drives the expansion of AI infrastructure globally, it simultaneously raises profound geopolitical challenges. The dynamic between promoting U.S. technological dominance and safeguarding against adversarial exploitation remains a delicate balancing act for policymakers.

"These stories with AI show different perspectives bolstering each other, creating a complex narrative of competition and collaboration." (28:01)

Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway wrap up the discussion, acknowledging the multifaceted implications of the Gulf AI deals and the ongoing debates they incite within the U.S. administration.

Notable Quotes:

• "Why are we building a data center in Abu Dhabi when we could be doing that in Ohio or in Pennsylvania?" – Marc Reape (06:08)
• "What conditions is the US Going to put on these deals to ensure that you're safeguarding American technology and know-how?" – Marc Reape (08:04)
• "David Sachs defined winning in the AI race as capturing the vast majority of the global market for AI hardware." – Mackenzie Hawkins (13:15)
• "These stories with AI show different perspectives bolstering each other, creating a complex narrative of competition and collaboration." – Joe Weisenthal (28:01)

Final Thoughts

The Odd Lots episode provides a comprehensive examination of the strategic AI deals forged in the Gulf States, highlighting the intricate balance between fostering economic growth and mitigating national security risks. Through expert analysis and insightful discussions, the podcast sheds light on the evolving landscape of global AI infrastructure and its far-reaching implications.