The NYC Landlords Most Worried About Zohran Mamdani

Summary

Odd Lots Podcast Summary: The NYC Landlords Most Worried About Zohran Mamdani

Released on July 21, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Bloomberg's Odd Lots, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway delve into the pressing issue of housing affordability in New York City. Focusing on the implications of Zohran Mamdani's proposals, the episode features insights from Ben Carlos Typen, founder of Quantiera and a seasoned NYC landlord and broker. The discussion sheds light on the real estate industry's apprehensions, potential policy impacts, and future opportunities under Mamdani's administration.

Discussion on NYC Housing Affordability

Joe Weisenthal opens the conversation by contextualizing the significance of New York City's housing challenges, noting its global relevance. He highlights the city's severe housing unaffordability and parallels it with other booming cities facing similar issues.

Tracy Alloway emphasizes the broader implications, stating, "New York City has a shortage of housing... and that has implications for a lot of other cities" (02:21).

Zohran Mamdani's Proposals and Industry Concerns

The hosts pivot to Zohran Mamdani's recent proposals aimed at addressing housing affordability, including a controversial rent freeze on a significant portion of the housing stock. They seek to understand the potential business and economic ramifications of these policies.

Key Insights from Ben Carlos Typen

Ben Carlos Typen provides a nuanced perspective on the real estate industry's reaction to Mamdani. He draws parallels between Mamdani and former Mayor Bill de Blasio, noting, "the reaction to Mamdani is actually not that different from the reaction to Bill de Blasio eight years ago" (05:35). Typen explains that the primary concern among landlords and developers revolves around Mamdani's approach to city management, which he perceives as excluding their interests.

He further elaborates on the specific segments within the real estate industry that are most apprehensive:

1. Rent Stabilized Landlords: "Rent stabilized landlords because, you know, Mamdani has pledged to freeze rents on rent stabilized apartments" (07:13).
2. Large Developers: These entities rely on established relationships and influence within City Hall. Mamdani's streamlined policies threaten their traditional advantages.

Impact on Property Taxes and Development

The conversation shifts to New York City's complex property tax system, which disproportionately taxes multifamily and commercial properties compared to single-family homes. Typen explains, "Park Slope is way under taxed relative to a poorer neighborhood like Canarsie" (30:47). This disparity hampers housing production and increases operating costs for existing buildings.

Public vs. Private Sector Roles

Tracy Alloway probes into whether increased public sector involvement, such as an emphasis on public housing, might crowd out private development. Typen responds by asserting that while private investment might dip, beneficiaries would include market-rate landlords and affordable housing developers who align with Mamdani's policies.

Opportunities Amidst Policy Changes

Despite the challenges, Typen identifies potential opportunities arising from Mamdani's administration:

• Streamlined Development Processes: Smaller developers and informal builders may benefit from a more straightforward approval system.
• Affordable Housing Developers: Both for-profit and nonprofit developers specializing in affordable housing stand to gain from increased government subsidies and support.

He notes, "These groups... are taking a different approach than some other... trying to craft sort of a separate piece with the Mamdani administration" (15:33).

Labor and Construction Unions

The role of unionized labor in constructing affordable housing is another critical aspect discussed. Typen points out that while construction unions have not yet endorsed Mamdani, there is potential for collaboration to ensure that labor requirements do not hinder housing projects. He suggests, "There's an opportunity... to craft a piece between labor and developers" (17:57).

Media Narratives and Perceptions

The hosts explore how media narratives shape perceptions about tax flight and the real estate market. Typen argues that much of the negative sentiment is driven by PR and spin rather than factual economic analysis. He states, "Millionaire tax flight actually is largely a myth" (21:05).

Crime and Real Estate

Addressing concerns about rising crime rates, Typen emphasizes that maintaining public safety is crucial for sustaining property values and the broader economy. He shares, "Having a crime-ridden city is not in the interests of building owners and property values" (27:28).

Performance of Mayor Eric Adams

When evaluating Mayor Eric Adams' tenure, Typen grades his housing policy with a "C" and notes that while land use policy improvements were made, structural issues like property taxes remain unresolved. He explains, "The administration has fought the expansion of voucher funding... falling short on housing is dealing with structural issues" (29:16).

Future Outlook and Potential Supreme Court Challenges

Looking ahead, the discussion touches on the possibility of Supreme Court challenges to rent stabilization laws. Typen suggests that Mamdani's policies could accelerate such legal battles, which may have far-reaching implications for rent regulation in New York City.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with reflections on the multifaceted nature of New York City's housing challenges and the varied responses from different stakeholders within the real estate industry. The hosts and Typen acknowledge that while policies like those proposed by Mamdani present significant challenges, they also create opportunities for innovation and more equitable housing solutions.

Notable Quotes

• Tracy Alloway: "New York City has a shortage of housing... and that has implications for a lot of other cities" (02:21).
• Ben Carlos Typen: "Rent stabilized landlords because, you know, Mamdani has pledged to freeze rents on rent stabilized apartments" (07:13).
• Ben Carlos Typen: "Millionaire tax flight actually is largely a myth" (21:05).
• Ben Carlos Typen: "Having a crime-ridden city is not in the interests of building owners and property values" (27:28).

Final Thoughts

This episode of Odd Lots provides a comprehensive analysis of the intersection between public policy and the private real estate sector in New York City. By featuring expert insights from Ben Carlos Typen, the podcast offers listeners a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding housing affordability and the potential impacts of Zohran Mamdani's administration.

For more insights and discussions on finance, markets, and economics, visit Bloomberg Odd Lots.

---

Timestamps:

• 02:21 Tracy on NYC's housing implications
• 05:35 Typen on reaction to Mamdani vs. de Blasio
• 07:13 Concerns about rent stabilization
• 15:33 Opportunities for affordable housing developers
• 17:57 Labor and construction unions in housing
• 21:05 Media narratives on tax flight
• 27:28 Impact of crime on real estate
• 29:16 Grading Mayor Adams' housing policy
• 38:19 Summary concluding remarks

Transcript

[PGM Representative]

At pgm, we actively manage risk today while targeting outperformance tomorrow. So no matter what investment risks concern you most. From geopolitics to inflation to liquidity, PGM brings disciplined risk management expertise that spans 30 market cycles. Our active approach finds opportunities and volatility, helping our clients to navigate risk and achieve their long term goals. Pull PGUM our investments shape tomorrow. Today.

[Lenovo Representative]

Let your imagination take flight with an AI powered PC from Lenovo. Whether it's creating digital art, designing new software or building a portfolio for a Future career, our PCs are powered by Intel Core Ultra processors to help students unlock smarter learning and unleash their creativity. That's the power of Lenovo. With intel inside all, all you have to do is choose the one that fits your passion. Head to lenovo.com to shop AI PCs and find your perfect companion. Plus get 5% off when you create an education account.

[PGM Representative]

A warming planet, complex geopolitics and fierce competition means business operations are under more scrutiny than ever before. Returning to Singapore this July, the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit is uniting leaders and investors to explore how sustainability efforts can bolster resilience and mitigate risk. Summit Advisor Bangkok Bank Presenting Sponsor Schneider Electric Supporting Sponsor Fraser's Property Learn more at BloombergLive.com SBS Singapore.

[Lenovo Representative]

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

[PGM Representative]

Podcasts Radio News.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Wiesenthal.

[Tracy Alloway]

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Tracy, I don't want the podcast to be like an entirely New York City focused podcast, but like in our defense, not only do we live here, but you know what happens in New York City. It has problems and it has challenges that are seen really all around the world. So it's not terrible to do a few episodes related to, you know, what's happening around in our neighborhood.

[Tracy Alloway]

I don't think it's terrible at all. And in fact, one specific area where New York really does have national, maybe even global relevance is in the housing arena. Right. So we know New York City has a shortage of housing. People have been trying to come up with ways to improve that, build more supply for a long time and also lower rents. And so that that has, you know, implications for a lot of other cities and places that might also be capacity constrained.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Totally. I mean, like New York is sort of at egregious levels of housing unaffordability. But every city around the world, I think every city that's booming has some challenges of affordability and building more, at least in the west. But I sort of think basically everywhere. And so you know, people always talk about trying to solve it, et cetera. Anyway, of course, past odd lots guest Zoran Mamdani has his proposals for how to address housing affordability, including a rent freeze on a significant chunk of the housing stock in the city. And so we sort of need to get a sense of, like, what that means and how that, you know, what the implication is for business. Weather could work, you know.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, the broader theme here, I guess, is the role of the public sector in, in the private market. Right. Like, if we want to get really, really conceptual with this, that's basically what we're talking about.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Yeah. And of course, Mamdani has a slew of proposals and ideas. Free buses, faster buses, also has a public grocery store trial, et cetera. But, you know, we did that recent episode with Kathy Wilde, the head of the Partnership for New York, which represents a lot of major employers in the city. I'm sure they're anxious about him for a number of reasons, but she said within their community, it's really the real estate industry that is the most freaked out, so to speak. Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

And I'm really interested in this because people talk about the real estate industry as this sort of monolith, but of course it isn't. Right. There's residential, there's commercial, there's luxury, there's more affordable. So I, I want to dig into this a bit more and understand exactly what the concerns are and whether they're coming from different parts of the real estate network.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Yeah. And then there's, you know, even within real estate, there's brokers and then there's developers who are separate from landlords, etc. Anyway, we do have the perfect guest, someone we've had on a few times every time New York City real estate is in the news. A guy we like to chat with. We are going to be speaking with Ben Carlos Typen. He is the founder of a firm called Quantiera, which analyzes real estate. He is also a New York City landlord and broker. Interesting ideas.

[Tracy Alloway]

Is that the most, like, hated demographic in all of New York?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Yes.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Thanks for coming back on the show, Ben.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Thanks for having me.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Kathy Wilde, when we talked to her, did say that the real estate industry is the. Of all of the sectors of the economy, the most anxious. What, what specifically, you know, who's. Who's really anxious or what? What about Mamdani's sort of vision? Most send chills down the spine of landlords or other players in the real estate industry.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Well, I mean, I think the reaction to Mamdani is actually not that different from the reaction to Bill de Blasio eight years ago when he came in, or, excuse me, 12 years ago. I think it's been amplified by, you know, the political environment we're in, Mamnani's political identity, his, you know, his race, his ethnicity and religion. But, you know, what scares these people, I think the most? And when I say these people, I mean the people that are, you know, vocalizing their. Their fear, which I think don't necessarily speak for. For every portion of the real estate industry, as Tracy pointed out. I think what most scares them is that Mamdani's sort of premise of city management does not revolve around them. And, you know, this was a major issue during the Blasio administration that the press covered a lot where, you know, de Blasio, despite, you know, appointing, you know, estate friendly commissioners and generally having a pretty good administration that was pretty good for real estate, he didn't. He wasn't in the habit of kissing the ring and sort of showing up to their galas and calling on them and stroking them in a way that, you know, in contrast, Eric Adams, the current mayor, has been very, you know, good at doing. So I think a lot of this is sort of meta feelings about, you know, their place in the city, their influence in City hall, and the, you know, depending on the policy, there could be, you know, there's varying degrees of tenuousness to actual policy and market implications.

[Tracy Alloway]

So who is most scared? Give us some nuance on. On the vibes.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Sure. So I think the most scared groups are rent stabilized landlords because, you know, Mamdani has pledged to freeze rents on rent stabilized apartments and then large developers, these sort of, you know, the biggest developers, who not only have business models that largely depend on sort of being in a, you know, informal cartel and having, you know, the best possible, best relationships with the people that, you know, make policy in the city and the, you know, the most powerful players, but also, you know, have a greater sense of civic duty and their role in civic society. And I think Mamdani's rhetoric and some of his policies threaten their sort of sense of their own place within the city.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

You know, it's interesting, Tracy, I'm thinking back. You know, we did that not long after we interviewed Mamdani, we interviewed the Jersey City mayor who didn't win his primary nomination for governor. So not everyone who comes on odd lots automatically. But one of the things he said that was really interesting is that by, you know, he said he talked about depoliticizing yeah. And that, you know, essentially by making it sort of more streamlined, the process to get approvals, that there are these developers who maybe their edge was that they really knew how to play the game within these boards, within, you know, the community, suddenly, like that is a marginal edge that disappears in a system that is much more straightforward. And Mamdani himself, if I'm not mistaken, Ben, has also talked about. He does want more development. He's talked about market rate development, and he's also talked about just sort of making that process, if the developer meets certain requirements, labor pay, et cetera, just much more straightforward. Which, again, would seem to speak to your point that perhaps some of the most threatened entities would be those ones who are big and best positioned to sort of play the politics side of the game.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Yeah, I think streamlining does not necessarily benefit the most entrenched incumbents. I think that they wouldn't necessarily fare badly under a Mamdani administration, but they, at least, if one takes Mamdani's policy pronouncements at face value, would not be in the driver's seat. You know, the. The Albanian guy in the Bronx who's building a small multifamily building, he's going to be in a lot more position to benefit from these streamlined policies than, you know, the type of people that are being quoted in the New York Times.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

By the way, Tracy, before I forget, you know, Ben talked about the similarities with de Blasio. It's funny because I think there was a quot recording this July 16th. I think I saw a quote yesterday from Kathy Wild in the news that was basically like, mamadani is like Bill de Blasio, except we like him. Like, he's likable, essentially. But, you know, that's pretty funny.

[Tracy Alloway]

I mean. Yeah, I get it. Okay, so part. Part of this discussion, I. I understand why developers might be concerned about, like, losing their competitive advantage when it comes to navigating City hall and all of that. Are there any concerns beyond initial approval for projects? Is there a concern, for instance, about an emphasis on public housing, perhaps crowding out private development?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

I think there's a generalized concern that the Mamdani administration and its vibes are going to depress private investment, whether that's in existing housing or building new private housing. However, even under that scenario, which I don't really agree with and think is kind of a cynical view, there would be beneficiaries of that scenario. So let's say that does happen. Rent stabilized, rents are frozen, and private investment in new development and new housing.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Plummets, they're going to upcharge the market.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Exactly. Market rate rents would increase considerably. So under that scenario, the market rate landlords would do very well and the rent stabilized landlords who are already not doing well would continue to not do well. And the affordable developers who only build housing with public subsidy, which you know Mamdani wants to spend, you know, considerably more on subsidized housing, would also benefit. So you know, it really speaks to the many different stakeholders within the real estate industry who have different and sometimes conflicting interests.

[PGM Representative]

The latest PGYM Real Estate outlook is.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Out now, so 2025 to be an attractive vintage year. So based on history, based on historical cycles. In fact, the opportunity for capital value growth to be stronger is obviously a key theme we're going to be focusing over the next 12 months from a research perspective. But if obviously investors need to adapt to changing market conditions, explore the report.

[PGM Representative]

At www.pgimrealestate.com globaloutlook.

[Lenovo Representative]

Time for a sofa upgrade? Visit washablesofas.com and discover annabe where designer style meets budget friendly prices with sofas starting at $699, Annabe brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to staines and met with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy. Liquid simply slides right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink in feel or a supportive memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space today with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60% off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[PGM Representative]

A Warming planet, Complex geopolitics and fierce competition means business operations are under more scrutiny than ever before. Returning to Singapore this July, the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit is uniting leaders and investors to explore how sustainability efforts can bolster resilience and mitigate risk. Summit Advisor Bangkok Bank Presenting Sponsor Schneider Electric Supporting Sponsor Frasers Property Learn more at BloombergLive.com SBS-Singapore if demand for residents.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

In New York City broadly is stable or continues to grow as it has been in this scenario, where in theory developers just want to pull back the landlords who have exposure to the market rate. Market rate units, you'd think they would do very well.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Yeah. And in fact, I have clients who are market rate developers who are out in the market fundraising right now with this argument to say that if we should, you should fund this project of ours right now because we're going to be the last buildings to be developed before Mamdani comes in and freezes everything. And therefore we're going to have the best product in the market and be able to charge the highest price.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's amazing. So the cost shift is already happening, basically.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Yeah. But like, again, where people are freaking out, I'm not sure that that is necessarily grounded in reality, but I think a lot of the, the rhetoric, both public and private, we've seen in light of Mamdani's primary victory has, is PR and spin. You know, in real estate, everyone's always trying to find an angle to say why their project is best or why, why their project should be funded or why I'm not making this decision and why, you know, why I look smart because of that.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

So, you know, we're still very much in the spin zone.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Let's talk more about that because, you know, I feel like one of those cliches which probably has some truth, is that, yeah, people who freak out and like, let themselves get hysterical don't do as well as business as people who adapt to the new environment and sense the opportunity. So you've described one set of people who may be thinking opportunistically right now, which is the people who might have the opportunity to build something before rent freezes come into place. They're going to have the pricing power by this. What else are the opportunities that people sense about? Yeah, okay, maybe we don't like the policies, but there is a money making opportunity under the Mamdani administration. Who else is sort of licking their chop, so to speak?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

One other group that's licking their chops is the developers that specialize in building affordable housing, which are both for profit and nonprofit developers. And they have done pretty well, or they did very well under the Bosnia administration. They'd done well during the Adams administration. They consistently do well because Mamdani wants to build more government subsidized housing than any previous mayor. But it's not like the developers and the labor for building that housing is just going to materialize out of the government. You're going to be using private sector players to do this. So these groups or these players are taking a different approach than some other, you know, pure market rate developers in the real estate industry and trying to craft sort of a separate piece with the Mamdani administration to say, like, hey, you know, we, we want to help you meet your goals. We know you want to spend a lot of money. This is good for, you know, for, for both of us. And I think another group, ironically, and they're not so much licking their chops because I think they're, they're very scared, is the rent stabilized building owners. Because, you know, as we've discussed on one of our previous podcasts, this is a distress sector and it's sort of been heading for a reckoning. And I think Mamdani's policies are going to lead to an acceleration of that trend. So that something gives here, and I think it could give in a sort of cynical way at the Supreme Court, or it could give in a more optimistic way by sort of Mamdani being something like Nixon to China and going to Albany and crafting some sort of new regime for these buildings that, you know, does not burden tenants, but also stabilizes them and make sure that they don't collapse, which is not really in the interest of anyone.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah, this is good context because the long suffering rent stabilized building owners have been trying to loosen regulation for a long time and I think they even sued on a constitutional basis. And clearly the goal is to try to get this to the Supreme Court. But in that context, you mentioned labor really quickly and I want to go back to that because one of the proposals that Mamdani has is using unionized labor to build all this affordable housing. And I'm curious how feasible that is, what the availability is, and how that actually feeds into costs.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Sure. So when talking about this issue, I think it's important to keep in mind that this is not a Mamdani issue. The construction unions all were back in Cuomo. This is really a New York issue writ large. We'll see how Mamdani, unlike most of the other powerful unions, the construction unions still have not abandoned Cuomo. They have not endorsed Mamdani yet. That said, there's obviously organized labor's job is to advocate for the most wages and best benefits for their members. They also need to make sure that their members keep working. So right now we're in a situation with this tax program that was negotiated in two legislative sessions ago where in for particularly large projects, the labor requirements are viewed as too onerous. And no one is building buildings that qualify under this, this wage standard. So there needs to be some sort of piece that is brokered here. And I think this could be an opportunity, you know, with all the credibility that Madani has built on the left, to craft a piece between labor and, and developers to make it so that we can build housing with unionized labor. But it doesn't break the bank.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

It's interesting I, you point out, this is something I've been thinking about, but you point out that, for example, most of the unions supported Cuomo. Some of them, such as the construction union, which I hadn't realized, still backing Cuomo. Cuomo also won the endorsement, I think, although they've switched, of the hotel workers union, which I also want to talk about. But it's interesting to me because when people think about a left wing mayor and how it can go wrong, they reach for the example of Brandon Johnson in Chicago. Brandon Johnson came out of the union machine. I mean, he was part of the teachers union in Chicago. Mamdani, for all his, I'm sure, ideological affinity for organized labor, he doesn't come out of that machine the same way Brandon Johnson, let alone to some extent Cuomo did. So it does feel like there is a potential for some sort of, you know, shifting of the plate, so to speak.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Yeah, I mean, who knows what's going to happen. But I think the, it's hard to argue that our, that coalition politics and politics generally in New York City have not been scrambled by this event. And I think it remains to be seen how, how all that shakes out and whether these groups that, you know, have been operating in relative concert, you know, perhaps at the expense of, of other constituencies, remain allied or whether new alliances are formed to solve some of the city's problems.

[Tracy Alloway]

How much of this just boils down to people, wealthier people not liking higher taxes, because I imagine, you know, if they're trying to get a message out there saying that they don't like taxes probably doesn't resonate with a lot of New Yorkers. But saying that because of higher taxes or because of all these other policies, there's going to be less development of property, less affordable housing, Is that just them trying to spin it that way?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

I personally, I think so. And you know, our media environment is structured as such that there's not really much downside in doing that. So, you know, you hear about, remember a couple years ago there was a lot of stories about David Tepper for Appaloosa Kappa Management moving to Florida to duck a income tax increase in New Jersey. We know there's a media frenzy about this, but no one covered that he moved back.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

And I'm always saying this, no One's going to stay in Florida. Give me a break.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

And I think the data or an analysis that has been done shows that millionaire tax flight actually is largely a myth and occurs at a much lower rate than it does for middle and lower income people. And there's all sorts of groups that sort of take advantage of this dynamic. So for instance, a luxury real estate broker will be, you know, go into the press and say, you know, I'm getting, my phone is ringing off the hook on people that want to sell their apartments here, move to Palm beach, you know, does that get them the attention of more people who might be thinking that way? Yeah, but does it reflect market reality or is anyone, you know, testing to see if that they've been proven wrong? No, and I think, you know, we're, this isn't just a New York City phenomenon. We're seeing a lot of dissonance between people's sort of ideological and policy priors and actual economic analysis. And I think a really good example is a mayor who raised taxes, including on upper earners, several times in New York City. Friend of the pod, Michael Bloomberg. And a lot of these same people who are complaining about Zoran think that Bloomberg was their model mayor and, and really want to go back to the Bloomberg economy. So, you know, people are sort of flailing about looking for any possible way to spin, you know, their own preferences.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Friend of the pod is a. How are you going to.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, I was going to do the standard disclaimer. It has become standard. But Michael Bloomberg is of course the owner of Bloomberg lp, which runs Bloomberg Media and Bloomberg News. So there we go. That's the disclaimer.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

I like describing him as friend of the pod, Friend of the pod. But this is a really important point. Like you're. No one's going to go to Florida like you. If you go to Florida, you can't be an in student studio guest on the Odd Lots podcast and do all the wonderful things that being in New York City affords you. It really is. I mean, I don't know actually the, the stats on who leaves New York City, but it's not the rich. I mean, it's like people who just find the city unaffordable. Right, right.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

And I would encourage everyone to, to Google Crystal Ball Young, who's a professor at Cornell, who's done a lot of work on this very issue. And the something you hear, you know, Cathy Wild mentioned in your interview and something you hear across business leaders generally and particularly in commercial real estate rather than multifamily is the importance of our workforce. And if people who the talent that fuels New York City cannot afford to live here, that is bad for New York City's economy. And would lowering the cost of housing be bad for some landlords? Yes. But would it be good for a lot of other sectors of the city, including, you know, the office real estate sector? Yes. Similarly with childcare, would I don't know who anyone who's really opposed to childcare. Like, I think that's a problem for everyone. And it would help employees and employers, but also help real estate owners because if you remember during the Bosley administration, they rolled out Universal Pre K and it's not like there's all this empty space in public buildings near people's houses that you're going to put, you know, childcare facilities. These are going to be rented in private buildings and result in a huge amount of leasing velocity that will often occur in space that is otherwise hard to lease.

[Lenovo Representative]

Every business has an ambition. PayPal open is the platform designed to help you grow into yours with business loans so you can expand and access to hundreds of millions of PayPal customers worldwide. And your customers can pay all the ways they want with PayPal, Venmo, pay later and all major cards so you can focus on scaling up when it's time to get growing. There's one platform for all business PayPal open grow today at paypalopen.com loans subject to approval in available locations. Let's be real life happens. Kids spill, pets shed and accidents are inevitable. Find a sofa that can keep [e-mail] Starting at just $699, our sofas are fully machine washable inside and out so you can say goodbye to stains and hello to worry free living. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics, they're kid proof, pet friendly and built for everyday life. Plus, changeable fabric covers let you refresh your sofa whenever you want. Need flexibility? Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa anytime to fit your space, whether it's a growing family room or a cozy apartment. Plus, they're earth friendly and trusted by over 200,000 happy customers. It's time to upgrade to a stress free mess proof sofa. Visit washablesofas.com today and save that's washable sofas offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[PGM Representative]

A warming planet, complex geopolitics and fierce competition means business operations are under more scrutiny than ever before. Returning to Singapore this July, the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit is uniting leaders and investors to explore how sustainability efforts can bolster resilience and mitigate risk. Summit Advisor Bangkok Bank Presenting Sponsor Schneider Electric Supporting Sponsor Frasers Property Learn more at BloombergLive.com SBS Singapore when we spoke.

[Tracy Alloway]

To Kathy, she did bring up crime. And you know, initially maybe you don't make a direct connection between economic policy and crime, but the argument is if there's lots of crime going on in the city, people are going to want to move away to that New York City flight exodus point. How are landlords or the real estate industry thinking about that particular aspect? Is it important to them? Because that would be maybe a reason to go for someone like an Eric Adams.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Right. I think it's very important to the real estate industry and you know, a lot of people are scarred by the experience of the 1970s and 80s in New York. Even if the contributing factors for New York's issues back then are myriad and complicated. We know everyone agrees that, you know, having a crime ridden city is not in the interests of building owners and property values and really the city at large given how much of our budget is based on property taxes. And you know, Mamdani has said that he's, you know, considering keeping on Jessica Tisch, the current police commissioner, that and that he's not going to reduce NYPD headcount. I think the real estate industry is very skeptical of this. But you know, the cooler heads within it are sort of keeping in mind that New York City is ultimately a creature of the state and we have the very moderate governor, we have a more moderate than Mamdani legislature and the legacy or you know, of the New York State constitution. But also the fiscal Crisis in the 1970s provides Albany with a lot of ways to make sure that the city does not go off the deep end on issues like this.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Can we talk about the last four years? I mean, it's a weird four years because, you know, you're starting the baseline in 2021 sort of during the worst of the post pandemic chaos. There's been a decent amount of building. I think, however, it's a really expensive city. There's a reason the affordability line was I think so effective in this recent mayoral primary. Like, well, you know, do you have a scorecard for how Mayor Adams did on housing?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

I'd give him a C. Okay. I, I think C plus, maybe B minus.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

All right, say more.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

I think the, the land use policy.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

My children go to a progress. One of my children goes to a very progressive school. They don't have grades, they just have this kind of stuff. So you can you could give the, the sort of like a qualitative assessment feedback?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Sure. I think the, the land use policy was generally pretty good. You know, the city of. Yes, which, which you may have heard of, which is, you know, the biggest change to the zoning code in probably 70 years. The income support policy. So which, you know, a lot of our housing woes are, you know, obviously rents are, are too damn high and prices are too high, but also wages are too damn low. And you know, we need to make sure that people can afford to pay rents. We need to make sure that people can afford to pay the rent that it costs to finance a new building. And the administration has fought sort of the expansion of voucher funding where I think it's fallen short on housing is dealing with sort of structural issues with our housing market, particularly the property tax system. And they are not the first administration to fall short on this issue. But I think it speaks to how much Adams's non housing policies and sort of extracurricular activities have impacted his ability to address structural issues like property taxes.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Can you just explain?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

So New York City's property taxes property tax system has two sort of major distributional issues. One is that a neighborhood like Park Slope is way under taxed relative to a poorer neighborhood like Canarsie. So the same two properties paying the same amount of property taxes in those neighborhoods, the property in Crown Heights will be worth five times more and is paying the same amount of property taxes as the property in Canarsie. The other distributional issue is multi family versus single family or 1 to 3 family and multifamily and commercial are taxed way more than their relative value contribution to the city total property tax role. And this is a long standing issue. There's been, you know, report after report and commission saying, you know, here's what we should do. And no one has sort of figured out how to go to Albany to craft a new regime that you know, addresses these issues which, you know, in addition to producing a lot of, you know, discriminatory impacts are really hampering our housing production and on existing housing operating costs. And I think this is a particularly ripe time to address this issue because of the crisis with a certain segment of the rent stabilized buildings because these buildings are way over taxed. So one could see in a best case scenario the Mamdani administration is, it's instituted its rent freeze. Buildings are starting to have trouble. The Mamadani administration doesn't want to see these buildings. You know, they don't want collapsing buildings. That's not good for tenants, it's not good for their, their political optics. It's not good for city, the city's, you know, image. So Albany says, all right, we're going to craft, you know, create a new class for these rent stabilized buildings and it's going to lower their taxes and that's going to alleviate, you know, the burden on these owners from keeping their rents very low.

[Tracy Alloway]

How much of this sort of existential concern being expressed by the real estate industry goes away if interest rates come down significantly?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

I think a lot of it, but it's still, it would still be very much there. I think it become acute, become less acute, but would persist because a lot of this is about, these are long standing conflicts between the real estate industry and, you know, between landlords and tenants, between, you know, what political faction runs New York. And those cleavages would, would remain even if interest rates are lower. I think interest rates would bail some people out and increase transaction volume and delay the time at which someone that's in trouble might go bankrupt. But the structural issues would remain.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Can you real quickly just explain the roots of the tax disparity or why say, a unit in Brooklyn Heights is relatively under text? Bom Donna got into a little bit of trouble because I think somewhere on his website at one point it said something about historically white neighborhoods and people like, oh, he wants to tax white people more.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Right.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

It happens to be true, however, that a lot of the neighborhoods that benefit from this structure do happen to be more white. But what is the origin of why certain neighborhoods are under text given their sort of like, you know, their economic base?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Sure. So I this, the current property tax regime was crafted in the early 1980s as a result of a court case and it instituted caps on the amount that assessments can increase.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Okay. And these places have seen their assessment.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Surge as a result. Yeah, so like Canarsie in 1982 was maybe a comparable income, you know, middle income, lower middle income area that as it is now, whereas Park Slope was a much less well off area than it is now. And the property values in places like Park Slope and Williamsburg and, and to some degree a place like Brooklyn Heights have skyrocketed. But the, the tax burden on those properties have not gone up commensurately.

[Tracy Alloway]

With your real estate hat on, who's going to win?

[Ben Carlos Typen]

Mamnani. I think it's, I think these, these efforts to draft another candidate or, or you know, reboot the Cuomo campaign are totally doomed. And the real estate industry I think is, is really internally is very split over what to do. And you know, some are going to back Mayor Adams, some are going to back Cuomo, some are trying to craft a piece with Mamdani, and some of them are just going to stay out.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Ben Typen, thank you so much for coming back on Odd lots. Always love getting Yori your level headed perspective on what's happening in our city.

[Tracy Alloway]

Thank you so much, Ben.

[Ben Carlos Typen]

My pleasure.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

I always really like talking to Ben. I had not realized the sort of, I mean, there was a lot there that was interesting, that sort of, that source of the disparity in property taxes. It makes a lot of sense that if you just can't raise property taxes at a certain clip, how, you know, relatively under taxed, any sort of booming neighborhood such as Williamsburg will inevitably end up being.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah, that seems like a problem given that like a big chunk of the recent story of New York City is gentrification and all these neighborhoods where like a warehouse that used to cost, I don't know, a hundred thousand in the 80s, now costs like 10 million.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Yeah. Or whatever.

[Tracy Alloway]

The other thing I thought was really interesting, it sort of hammered home that point that we discussed previously. But the idea of the competitive advantage for large landlords basically being they can network in City hall, they can presumably do the paperwork and all of that stuff. And so if an administration comes in that jeopardizes that particular advantage, then they're not going to like it.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Right. Like maybe the rules for development will be more stringent.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

But if they're just sort of uniform, where it's like, okay, and I don't know how it could ever be in real estate, but let's just say, you know, in the sort of abstract sense, you check these four boxes and you are approved to build a new development, then intuitively. Yeah. That would sort of undermine the relative advantage enjoyed by a big powerful entity that sort of knows the system, so to speak.

[Tracy Alloway]

On the other hand, of course, maybe there are smaller property developers who really like the idea of a streamlined process doing away with things like the parking requirement and stuff like that, that dual staircases versus single. I don't know.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

I, and I do think like, you can't, you know, if you're anxious about what the Mamdani administration is going to bring you, you can't really simultaneously argue that it's going to stifle development and rents. Right. If development gets stifled, then the market rents go up.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

And if, you know, and so there will be this balancing effect, you know, obviously there are the landlords who are deeply exposed to the rent stabilized market. We've talked about them before, but they're hurting right now as it is. I also do think at some point maybe we should talk about the prospect of a Supreme Court case in the next couple of years that eliminates rent stabilization or rent regulation, period. Possibly. You know, you mentioned the sort of cynical possibility of Mamdani being an accelerant that gets that case in front of the Supreme Court at some point. Could have big implications.

[Tracy Alloway]

This entire conversation has reminded me that I need to call my super and get something fixed in my apartment. So this was useful.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

This is what I miss about being a renter is I don't have someone that I can call as easily. There are some advantages. There are some advantages to being a renter, you know.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right, shall we leave it there?

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Let's leave it there.

[Tracy Alloway]

This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Actually, I do have a super. I just have to pay him now for it. Where it used to be, all these various repairs and stuff. The burden fell on my landlord before now. The the burden.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's not too bad because like the the big problem with supers, I feel, is just availability. Or the big problem with getting something fixed is finding someone and getting them in anyway.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

Every time something breaks, I have to pay for it. Now they don't tell you that when you become a owner.

[Tracy Alloway]

Pretty sure they do.

[Joe Wiesenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Ben Carlos type and he's at Sobendito. Follow our priority producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Erman, Dashiell Bennett at dashbot, and Kell Brooks at Kale Brooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots we have the daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about these topics 24. 7 in our discord discord gg oddlaws.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about New York City housing policy, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

[PGM Representative]

A warming planet, complex geopolitics and fierce competition means business operations are under more scrutiny than ever before. Returning to Singapore this July, the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit is uniting leaders and investors to explore how sustainability efforts can bolster results, resilience and mitigate risk. Summit Advisor Bangkok Bank Presenting sponsor Schneider Electric Supporting sponsor Fraser's Property Learn more at bloomberglive.com SBS Singapore.