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- [00:01]
Steve McCloskey
Open source AI is available to all, not just the few. Meta's open source is free to use, enabling startups like Nanome to innovate. Here's CEO Steve McCloskey with Meta's free.
- [00:12]
Nathan Tankus
Open source AI model llama. We built an AI tool that allows us to collaborate with other scientists to discover treatments for diseases.
- [00:20]
Steve McCloskey
Learn how others are building with Meta's free open source AI at AI.meta.com open.
- [00:30]
Tracy Alloway
Learning, exploring, doing things differently. That's how you get ahead, right? Have you thought about a new way to manage your workforce? Get the help you need for staffing from Express employment professionals. Visit ExpressPros.com today. Whether you're filling open roles or hiring for peak seasons, Express Employment Professionals is more efficient than recruiting on your own. Find the local office near you@expresspros.com thanks for listening and considering Express.
- [01:02]
Joe Weisenthal
Bloomberg Audio.
- [01:03]
Steve McCloskey
Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:17]
Joe Weisenthal
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
- [01:23]
Tracy Alloway
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
- [01:24]
Joe Weisenthal
Tracy, the theme of the last two weeks has been, I don't know, emergency episodes of the podcast. Look, in some respects it's not surprising. New administration, new unexpected things. There's always gonna be a flurry of activity when a new administration comes. Unexpected stuff. But there's a lot.
- [01:44]
Tracy Alloway
Yes. We're basically a daily show now, at least for the past two weeks.
- [01:48]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, it's like how we were a daily show. I mean, we used to just do one episode a week prior to Covid that was like really the mark of the world changing. It's like as soon as Covid hit.
- [01:57]
Tracy Alloway
When you get more Odd Lots episodes, that's a bad sign.
- [02:00]
Joe Weisenthal
It's a sign, right? So some people would say it's a good sign that there's a lot of stuff going on that people want. But it's certainly a sign. And of course there's been stuff going on on trade. I guess one of our emergency episodes was about the deep sea sell off. There's just a lot going on right now.
- [02:17]
Tracy Alloway
Yes, indeed. And we're going to talk about one of the other things that's been going on, Right?
- [02:22]
Joe Weisenthal
And so obviously we've known for since part of the administration that Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency would be coming in. To my mind, there's like multiple questions here. I mean, there's just so many questions about what that is. Some people are like, oh, is it going to be about just making the government run more efficiently? Sort of capital E, which probably a lot of people Wouldn't object to, in theory. And then there's, of course, the question about how much can an organization or an entity like this do unilaterally? Because a lot of the big spending decisions, they come out of Congress. One of the things that's happened, though, there's been a lot of reporting on this from multiple outlets is that Elon Musk and his team have apparently gotten access to a key payment system within the Department of Treasury.
- [03:11]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah. So this has been all over the news in recent days. And I guess. I guess the downside is we have a group of unelected people who I think technically aren't government employees controlling the system through which the US sends basically all its payments, like, everything, Social Security to Treasuries, all of that. But the upside is we get to talk about payments technology. So there's a small silver lining.
- [03:40]
Joe Weisenthal
Right. And, you know, look, this is actually, you know, we talk a lot about macro stuff on the podcast. So the amount of government spending that goes to this or that or deficits are debt or whatever. But it's actually, we both like it when we get to talk about, like, how does money go from point A to point B? And this is an infinitely fascinating topic, but maybe sometimes people don't care.
- [04:04]
Tracy Alloway
But this is a time now they.
- [04:05]
Joe Weisenthal
Care, but now this is a time for people to care. Like, how does a payment actually get made to anything, whether it's a Social Security recipient, whether it's to an independent contractor, whether it's to an employee, or whether it's to the holder of a government bond awaiting their coupon.
- [04:21]
Tracy Alloway
Yep, absolutely.
- [04:23]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, we're going to be speaking to someone who really knows payments and the intricacies he seems to get. Really, I don't know many people who, like, are interested is going deep into how all these sort of, like, payments and accounting systems actually work. Going deeper than just the macro. The perfect guest. We haven't had him on in a long time and we're going to originally talk about something else. Maybe we'll get to that one day. We're going to be speaking with Nathan Tinkus. He is the author, editor, creator of the Notes on the Crises Substack. So, Nathan, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.
- [04:56]
Nathan Tankus
Well, I will say not substack anymore, but yes, thank you very much.
- [04:59]
Joe Weisenthal
Newsletter. Right. What is the Bureau of Fiscal Service?
- [05:02]
Nathan Tankus
The Bureau of the Fiscal Service is a sleepy, obscure part of the United States treasury that makes sure that all of the sort of operational things that the Treasury Department is doing operates. So you know, you can have big conversations about foreign currency issuing treasury securities, about Social Security and Medicare and government spending and tax collection, of course, you know, the tax collection is, is an IRS prerogative. But the other side of that, the sort of flip side of the IRS with tax collection is the payment side. And of course those tax collections in turn run through the payment system. The Bureau of the Fiscal Service is what sends out tax refunds. So tax refunds are not actually technically an IRS prerogative in terms of making had those payments going out. And the Bureau of the Fiscal Service is what does that. 88% of government payments flow through this system every year. And it is what I've described as the beating pulsating heart of the federal government's payments. Before you get to the banking system, before you get to the Federal Reserve. This is the heart, this is the artery that is making it all function. It is the most important aspect of the federal government, even though no one's ever heard of it.
- [06:40]
Tracy Alloway
How complex is it to actually send out these payments? Because on the one hand I can kind of imagine a scenario where people are just, you know, pressing a button that says like, pay this person, pay that person, pay whoever. But on the other hand I also imagine we're talking about, you know, millions of individual payments. People might have to be onboarded into the system. I imagine getting into the technology that we're talking about, seriously old mainframe type computers, like dinosaur systems. How hard is it to do this job?
- [07:14]
Nathan Tankus
It's an incredibly complex task. I mean we're talking about a mind boggling scale of payment process that you have to do. And there's a physical architecture to the system. There's what, you know, encoding is called the business logic. So not just the logic of like the abstractly the language of the program, but the business logic that is involved. The treasury has, you know, belatedly gone into various payment modernization projects over the last 20 years. If you know, as we'll get to. There's a sinking feeling in my stomach of that maybe it shouldn't have, but it is quite a complex system that requires a quite a specialized group of essentially aging programmers to manage this system and make sure that it is functioning properly and that, you know, all payments go out from the treasury on time and that they never miss a payment and it's never delayed.
- [08:18]
Joe Weisenthal
We like talking about aging systems that are taken care of by a handful of gray barriers.
- [08:24]
Tracy Alloway
We need a, we need a cobalt.
- [08:26]
Joe Weisenthal
A cobalt. By the way, I went on IBM's website and I found Some files where they had some COBOL examples. I dropped them into ChatGPT. I said rewrite these in Python. It looked like it came out. Can't they just do that? Copy and paste the whole thing, drop it into AI and say rewrite this all in Python or something.
- [08:42]
Nathan Tankus
Well, I mean that is kind of what I was getting at with it.
- [08:46]
Joe Weisenthal
With or you're a deep seat guy. Can they just go all over.
- [08:48]
Nathan Tankus
Yeah, actually it's funny, I started playing with Deep Seek before this crisis really gone. I was having fun. You put it in and I, you know, I, I, I, you know, I loved, you know, getting some code and building an economic model, proving my math skills and understanding the mathematical properties of models. It was great for that. It has a ton of data that it is based on that it can do that. And each system, I mean this is true about generally any sort of business system that has developed for over a long time. But it's especially true for COBOL system and especially true for older systems. And no system is older than the Treasury. Even with the modernizations, you know, the modern is modernizing these systems mean changing the physical architecture that they run on and maybe updating the language so that it can also be used on say a computer and not just a mainframe. And there's some unification of business logic that is all. But it's not getting rid of cobol and actually getting rid of COBOL would be a bet. There's an updated version of cobol, arm COBOL that they use. These servers are now at least I think for the most part running on Linux servers. So that you've got modern operating systems, but they're still very, very complex and it's still COBOL and it's still decades and decades of business logic making the system run, you know, and all of these systems are highly confidential system in every bank in the world, in every, you know, major insurance company, every government. So there just is not like a set, an example of confidential data set of these things that can run on and you know, I should say, and this is part of why I'm so, you know, adept for this moment that my father was a COBOL programmer, I didn't know that at Morgan Stanley and He, for almost 20 years he was the person in charge of making sure every financial advisor got their compensation. I've been telling him for the last three days, please let me, you know, me, me and the odd lots interview, please, please. And it's going to take me a couple weeks to.
- [10:58]
Tracy Alloway
You can do it, Nathan.
- [10:59]
Nathan Tankus
I believe I'm working out this. This is the hardest informant task that I that, that I've had in the last five days.
- [11:22]
Mikayla Shiffrin
This show is sponsored by BetterHelp.
- [11:24]
Joe Weisenthal
BetterHelp has been revolutionary in connecting people to mental health services. Using BetterHelp can be as easy as opening your laptop or your phone and clicking a button. And the session begins. Clients are able to choose in what way they would like to communicate with me. Whether video or on the phone or chat texting.
- [11:44]
Tracy Alloway
BetterHelp is there when you need it.
- [11:46]
Nathan Tankus
And that's what makes all the difference. Visit betterhelp.com podbusiness to get 10% off your first month.
- [11:54]
Steve McCloskey
Therapists were compensated.
- [11:56]
Unknown
Success. It's discipline. It's teamwork. It's the drive and passion inside of us that comes before all recognition. It's the best in each of us made better by the best in all of us. Whatever success looks like to you, Stifel is invested in yours. That's why Stifel is one of the fastest growing global wealth management firms in the country. So when you're ready to chase success, our financial advisors are ready for you. At Stifel, we invest everything into our advisors so they can invest everything into their clients. That means direct access to one of the industry's largest equity research franchises and a leading middle market investment bank. And it's why Stifel has won the J.D. power Award for Employee Advisor satisfaction two years in a row. If you're an advisor or an investor, choose Stifel. Where success meets success. Stifel, Nicklaus & Co. Inc. Member SIPC and NYSE for J.D. power 2024 award information, visit JDPower.com Awards compensation provided for using not obtaining the award.
- [12:56]
Tracy Alloway
Okay, so Musk doge now have access to this incredibly complicated system, as you just laid out. Do we know exactly what kind of access they have? Because there's been a lot of discussion over whether it's read only or maybe they have administrative rights. What do we know?
- [13:14]
Nathan Tankus
So, you know, there was a lot of very terrifying reporting. You know, I do want to make a point of saying that when I first read the Washington Post reporting, which is the source that broke this in 3pm I was absolutely terrified. I had an absolute panic attack. And you know, as this story got started developing in Saturday, anonymous sources started leading, say the New York Times, other sources to update their articles saying, well, they only have read only access. But these, this was, there was never any public confirmation idea. These were anonymous sources that were trying to placate the utter panic that was coming out and Wired at 1am today.
- [13:57]
Joe Weisenthal
Reported recording this February 4, recording this.
- [14:00]
Nathan Tankus
February 4 at 12:19.
- [14:02]
Tracy Alloway
But that's how fast the news cycle is now. We got to give the exact minutes.
- [14:06]
Nathan Tankus
Yeah. And so at 1, at 1am they exclusively reported for the first time that that is not true. They have read and write access and I've reported as of 7:30 this morning confirms their reporting from my sources independently. I unfortunately couldn't be to at first. I crashed out and fell asleep at 7pm Got up at 3am and got going.
- [14:29]
Joe Weisenthal
So what can you do with read only access? With read like what if someone has quote read only access to it?
- [14:36]
Nathan Tankus
That means you can. My understanding is that means you can look at people's Social Security numbers, you can look at other confidential medical information, you know, all sorts of confidential information. You can look at the source code and so come up with ways of restructuring the code and then propose those restructurings and then you know, goes through a testing process and then try to get one of these aging programmers to implement what you want.
- [15:03]
Tracy Alloway
And do we have any sense of what Elon wants out of this access? I mean this is the big question, right? And if you look at his account on Twitter X, he's talking a lot about oh I'm rooting out fraudulent payments or improper payments. And my impression of this bureau is that, you know, the validity of payments isn't really their jurisdiction. Right. Like their jurisdiction or their task is to send out the payments that have been mandated by Congress or other sources. They're not there to necessarily say well this payment is legit and that payment is not legit.
- [15:43]
Nathan Tankus
Yeah. So I mean I think you know, for an odd lots audience who talks about the banking system a lot more and talks about the Federal Reserve, I think that is where to start to talking about this. Talking about having individual verification of payments and trying to determine improper payments at the technical operation, operational level of processing payments is like saying that like the operations departments at the Federal Reserve banks should not just simply rely on know your customer laws anti money laundering and all sorts of other sort of safeguards for an authorized, you know, you know, authorized payer to make payments. That you know the fundamental premise of the payment system of any payment system that you're supposed to rely on is that whether or not a legitimate payment is going is determined by the process of letting people into the system. And that if a regularly show up with what is going on with one of these authorized users, then that gets investigated. Maybe they get shut out of the system. But trying to examine the individual payments. I mean, you know, it's like saying that, that the operations department of the Federal Reserve banks have been improperly sending improper payments.
- [17:14]
Joe Weisenthal
Explain this further because obviously, just in the abstract, the idea of being vigilant about improper payments, which is a good idea, I don't know how often they are, etc. But just sort of explain this idea further where, you know, in the vast system of the treasury is the place or the seat of these sort of judgments and why is the, in your view, the Bureau of Fiscal Service not the sort of place to identify these?
- [17:44]
Nathan Tankus
Yeah, so, I mean, you know, the big pictures that think about this is that the treasury, the Bureau of the Fiscal Service is essentially, and thus the treasury as a whole is essentially a fiscal agent for every administrative agency in the federal government and a various, maybe some other entities as well. And so traditionally when we talk about this, we talk about treasury payments. People consolidate the entire federal government and just say the treasury. And it's a shorthand that's useful for 99% purposes, just like other forms of consolidation would be, but for payment operational level issues. And you ask that question, or when you ask questions about it, you have to disaggregate the federal government and examine those payments up.
- [18:32]
Joe Weisenthal
So just for an example, the Department of Agriculture, they would have their own focus on who is getting a payment that's legitimate or not. The Department of Education would have a division that focuses on these things, et cetera. But then ultimately they make some decision. The Department of Agriculture says, okay, there's some subsidy to corn growers somewhere, but ultimately that just gets routed through the Treasury.
- [18:57]
Nathan Tankus
Yeah, and the Bureau of the. Of the Fiscal Service wants those administrative agencies to have better internal controls. They have their own Payments Integrity Unit, which is not supposed to investigate the payments themselves, but to help improve the controls. There is one of these sprawling systems is a do not pay system where there is a list of do not pay that these five bills get pushed through before the payments actually get put out. And you know, the Bureau of the Fiscal Service also has legislative proposals. Their last, you know, fiscal year 2024 report has seven legislative proposals. Five of them are about reducing improper payments, including giving them greater authority to require better internal controls from other administrative agencies. So these are known problems. The main barrier has been Congress has not budgeted enough and authorized enough to do this. And notably a lot of this needs legislation to do both on, you know, internal legal things within the federal government and also in terms of privacy protections for people of doing responsible changes that and make sure, they're still privacy respecting.
- [20:11]
Tracy Alloway
So the other word that's been flying around lately is impoundment. And I guess my question is, if DOGE starts cutting off certain payments for whatever reason, is there a backup contingency payment processor or is there another agency that could maybe step in and do some of this?
- [20:35]
Nathan Tankus
No, there is no rule book or game plan. If this system goes down, then the payments don't go out that day. And if they break this system in a way that takes months to fix that, we have no rulebook for this. Now, ironically, the memos that I've gotten through FOIA about what the Federal Reserve's game plan in case of treasury default, the debt ceiling kind of makes the situation a little bit less stubborn to panic because you could like, you know, who's caring about legalities at this point anyway with this, you know, basically decided to do anything. So you may be like, create an SPV for each administrative agency, lend to it with, you know, 13.3 authority, and then try to work out payments. But you still have to figure out who to pay and where.
- [21:24]
Joe Weisenthal
But there's two separate questions here when we're talking about impoundment. One is the theory of does something break? But then the other question is there is a legal theory. You know, the classic like sort of Constitution 101, Congress controls the power of the purse and the Congress decides so and so gets money, etc. And then it goes out there. And then there is this other theory that some in the Trump administration support that actually the executive branch does have discretion about payments. So Congress could authorize something. But tell listeners about the legal debate about what impoundment is.
- [21:58]
Nathan Tankus
Yes. So, and this is what I was covering Friday morning with my, I mean, that's how also how, you know, things are really bad is when there had been three notes of the crises pieces in three days, in three business days. But the core issue is as, as you said, the foundational constitutional principle is that Congress has control of the power of the purse. And that is is not supposed to be abrogated. There is some, you know, the historical precedent here is the Nixon administration, the impoundment act of 1974 was meant to stop Nixon for impounding because he claimed that he could impound because, you know, Congress is spending too much. And, you know, maybe just to be.
- [22:44]
Joe Weisenthal
Clear, is the executive branch unilaterally deciding, Sorry.
- [22:51]
Nathan Tankus
Yes. Impoundment is the concept of the president deciding not to spend money that Congress has appropriated. And Congress appropriating the money is a directive to spend. And especially when Congress directs for an exact amount of money to be spent or an exact formula of money to be spent, the President does not have the authority to just stop those payments.
- [23:37]
Unknown
I'm Alpine skier Mikayla Shiffrin. I've won the most World cup ski races in history. But what does success mean? To me, success means discipline. It's teamwork. It's the drive and passion inside of us that comes before all recognition. And it's why Stifel is one of the fastest growing global wealth management firms in the country. If you're looking for success, surround yourself with the people who will get you there.
- [24:02]
At Stifel, we invest everything into our advisors so they can invest everything into their clients. That means direct access to one of the industry's largest equity research franchises and a leading middle market investment bank. And it's why Stifel has won the J.D. power Award for Employee Advisors satisfaction two years in a row.
- [24:20]
If you're an advisor or investor, choose Stifel.
- [24:23]
Where Success Meets Success stifel Nicklauss & Co. Incorporated member SIPC and NYSE for J.D. power 2024 award information, visit jdpower.com Awards compensation provided for using not obtaining the award.
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Mikayla Shiffrin
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Unknown
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Mikayla Shiffrin
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- [25:37]
Joe Weisenthal
I mean, you mentioned the Impoundment Control act of 1974, so there's obviously been some dispute about the basic premise that only Congress prerogative. Does this end up in a court fight?
- [25:51]
Nathan Tankus
Yes. I mean, that is the traditional check and balance in our system is that the judiciary is supposed to step in and speak to a constitutional question and impose or say that a certain act that the president is engaging in is unconstitutional and should be stopped. In this situation, the obvious thing to say about that is that Trump appointed three of the nine Supreme Court justices that are on the Supreme Court. So it seems very unlikely, although not impossible, that the Supreme Court would actually step in and declare what Trump's doing unconstitutional and even more importantly impose some sort of consequences or block to what Trump is doing.
- [26:47]
Tracy Alloway
But even if the court were to rule it unconstitutional, you would still need someone to actually enforce that decision, which seems like it's pretty up in the air. One more question from me. So one of the interesting things about all of this is the DOGE people who have access to the payment system. I think it's like a group of young 20 something year old programmers according to various reporting. I find it kind of funny because I always thought COBOL was like, you know, this thing that not a lot of people understood or there wasn't a lot of expertise in it, but apparently, you know, 20 year olds seem to be able to understand it. What's the potential here that they actually mess something up pretty bad?
- [27:36]
Nathan Tankus
The potential is absolutely enormous. The reporting that, that I've done that confirms the Wireds reporting is that There is a 25 year old SpaceX Former SpaceX employee Marco Elez who has read and write access to the Payment Automation Manager and the Secure Payment System of the Bureau of the Fiscal Service. It is an absolutely enormously terrifying situation. I had a source describe it as apocalyptic. There's no way to exaggerate how enormously dangerous this is. Every financial market in the world, in the country, in the world should be pricing in the operational failure uncertainties of, of this system. Every single financial market should be pricing it in and none of them are. None of them are even close.
- [28:37]
Joe Weisenthal
And just to be clear, my last thing. So like bond payments run through this system.
- [28:42]
Nathan Tankus
Bond payments run through the system. There's another COBOL system at the New York Federal Reserve which I know less about. That was also part of that. But I think it's still foundational relies on the Cobalt systems that it communicates with at the Treasury.
- [28:58]
Joe Weisenthal
Nathan Tankus, thank you so much for coming on up.
- [29:01]
Tracy Alloway
That was great.
- [29:02]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, that was excellent. Tracy. On the plus side, I like talking payment stuff. No, I really do. I mean I think there are two main takeaways from me so far is like, one is the idea that this team now just has such access to like such sensitive data is extraordinary to me. And two, I have zero doubt that it would be very easy to screw up something that is truly at the the lifeblood of just like essentially how the entire economy operates.
- [29:45]
Tracy Alloway
Yeah, absolutely. I guess we still have to learn more about what the end game is here and what DOGE is trying to accomplish. Exactly. The other thing I was thinking about was, you know, Nathan's kind of warning towards the end about the market just overlooking a lot of this. And I kind of remember in the first Trump administration, do you remember one of the rating agencies came out and they had a little piece warning about US Credit worthiness and saying, like, the rule of law gets eroded and that's kind of bad. It's weird that we haven't seen a lot of that over. I guess it's still early, it's happening so quickly. But like, there hasn't been any of that in the past two weeks.
- [30:32]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, look, the way I would think about it is sort of like the debt ceiling, which is that the market will freak out when something happens. Right. But before that, like, if something happens and there's a payment system, something gets broken, then we're going to see a market freak out. But everyone, until that moment is just always operates like, in the end the payments will be fine. I don't think financial markets are good at situations like this where it's very binary, right. Where it's like the default is you just sort of expect the payments to keep on running and everything is fine, et cetera. The default is you expect them to always raise the debt ceiling eventually when they have to. Or the default is you expect the Fed to step in or whatever the meant a trillion dollar coin. But like, how to actually think about like payments not actually happening and they're not being an easy way to fix this system. I for one, am not surprised that this isn't. That it's hard to price that stuff in.
- [31:29]
Tracy Alloway
Here's a question. If the system got messed up or payments were impounded or something, would treasuries go up or down?
- [31:38]
Joe Weisenthal
Oh, I love this question. I'm actually, I put myself in the category of if you own a bond and you miss a coupon, you freak out, you buy more bonds. I think that's where I eventually.
- [31:50]
Tracy Alloway
Well, I think that's what actually tends to happen during debt ceiling crises. Right?
- [31:54]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
- [31:54]
Tracy Alloway
All right, shall we leave it there?
- [31:56]
Joe Weisenthal
Let's leave it there.
- [31:56]
Tracy Alloway
This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me racialloway.
- [32:02]
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Jill Wiesenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow Nathan Tankus. He's Nathantankas. And check out his newsletter at crisesnotes.com follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez, Armen Ehrman and Dash O'Bennett at Dashbot Kalebrooksailbrooks. For more Oddlots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots where we have transcripts, a blog and a newsletter and you can chat about all of these topics 24. 7 in our Discord, Discord, GG, Oddlauds.
- [32:29]
Tracy Alloway
And if you enjoy Odd Lots. If you like it when we dive into payments technology, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.
- [33:23]
Steve McCloskey
Join Bloomberg in Atlanta or via livestream on February 11th for the future investor finding the opportunities this 2025 event series will examine how companies are investing in their businesses to create efficiencies, innovate their products and services, and improve the customer experience. This series is proudly Sponsored by Invesco. Q. Q. Q. Register@Bloomberglive.com futureinvestoratlanta.