This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran

Summary

Odd Lots (Bloomberg)

Episode: This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran

Date: March 26, 2026
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway
Guest: Ozan Tarman, Vice Chair of Global Macro, Deutsche Bank

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Episode Overview

This timely episode, recorded the morning of March 25, 2026, dives deep into how global markets and major investors are navigating the rapidly changing landscape amid the ongoing war in Iran. Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway are joined by macro strategist Ozan Tarman, who shares unique insights gathered from his global conversations with top financial players. The discussion covers market reactions to evolving headlines, the complexities facing oil and rates markets, the psychology and positioning of big money, and the knock-on effects for assets such as gold, private credit, and global equities. Listeners also get behind-the-scenes color on how traders interpret news—real and fake—in an environment dominated by uncertainty, meme warfare, and "bad volatility."

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Headline-Driven Markets and Uncertainty

• Timestamp: [02:23]–[05:51]
• Context: The market is reacting violently to news updates, especially with new headlines out of Iran rejecting ceasefire talks.
• Joe: "The reason I mention the time is not just because things are moving fast, but to establish we've had market-moving headlines already this morning." [02:36]
• Tracy: "It really is a headline-driven market... no one's entirely sure what the goals are when it comes to Iran." [03:16]
• Observation: There is deep skepticism about official headlines, but markets cannot afford to ignore them completely. This feeds into heightened volatility and uncertainty.

2. Market Positioning and the “Pain Trade”

• Timestamp: [05:51]–[09:12]
• Ozan: Shares that right before the conflict, focus was on AI and expectations of rate cuts alongside bullish sentiment in gold and bonds. The attack on Iran turned everything upside down.
• Insight: “Traders always smell things, always have a sense of where the pain trade is, where the momentum is.” [07:09]
• Joe: Notes that despite war escalation, commodities like Brent crude haven't surged as many predicted, indicating complicated positioning.

3. Liquidations, Winner Trades, and Gold

• Timestamp: [10:27]–[13:45]
• Joe: "The last time we had you on was September ... gold was around 3,800 an ounce ... it got over $5,500 ... as of yesterday we saw a 10-day gold selloff." [10:59]
• Ozan: Explains how traders have had to sell their best-performing assets—including gold—as other trades failed, leading to forced liquidations: “Once you realize ... this is going to continue on and on ... people start selling their winners to build defense mechanisms.” [11:52]
• Memorable Quote: "If you have survived, these are the moments to make the difference. Who knows Joe? Maybe this is right around the dip and we will remember it like the time we were able to look through it." [14:49]

4. Pain Trade Defined & US Exceptionalism

• Timestamp: [18:15]–[22:21]
• Ozan: Elaborates the “pain trade” as when the dominant consensus trade moves sharply against crowded positioning. Gives examples with gold and the USD: "After a while it can become as important as a fundamental factor." [18:19]
• Tracy: Brings up crosscurrents—on one side, people are seeking USD; on the other, there's talk of diversification and questioning US exceptionalism.
• Ozan: Notes increased hedging rather than outright US asset selling. Energy price shocks continue to weigh on Europe, making it a key region at risk.

5. Oil Market Disconnect: Hype vs. Reality

• Timestamp: [22:21]–[28:09]
• Joe: Points out oil analysts are alarmed, but prices remain subdued. "There does seem to be this gap between the hair on fire rhetoric of the oil knowers versus the prices..."
• Ozan: Warns that while futures haven't exploded, physical market constraints could still bite—especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed: "If it's not starting to open in one month...the world has a huge, huge, huge problem." [24:02]
• Link to Rates: Higher potential inflation is leading to delayed or reversed rate cut expectations in the ECB and Bank of England.

6. The Role of AI, Memes, & Social Media in Trading

• Timestamp: [28:09]–[29:59]
• Tracy: This is the first major market-moving conflict involving both sides using AI-generated memes. Asks how much weight traders give to such content.
• Ozan: Traders mostly ignore the memes themselves, but rapidly assess which sources and signals—across multiple languages—are credible. The info environment is more complex and “spicy.”

7. Impact on Global Business Hubs (Dubai, Gulf)

• Timestamp: [29:59]–[32:28]
• Discussion: Large asset flows to the Gulf (especially Dubai and Qatar) are threatened by the conflict—a sentiment and business climate shift, not just a financial one.
• Ozan: In short term, money flows and travel patterns are affected. But longer term, the Gulf financial centers will remain strong.

8. Private Credit: Underreported Risks

• Timestamp: [36:03]–[39:34]
• Tracy: Expresses concern about Private Credit redemptions being brushed off as “not systemic” despite signs of stress.
• Ozan: Agrees this is being overlooked due to the Iran situation: “If people cannot take their money away from private credit and have to sell something liquid, then watch out for public credit... and public equity.” [37:32]
• Big Point: Risk could spread to public markets—watch for financial conditions to tighten if private credit stress continues.

9. Re-accelerating Inflation & Structural Concerns

• Timestamp: [39:34]–[42:07]
• Joe: Inflation may have been picking up even before war headlines.
• Ozan: Agrees, tying in the possibility of “rationing”—especially impacting Asia and Europe—if energy supply disruptions worsen. Flags risk of stagflation.

10. Final Market Commentary

• Timestamp: [43:01]–[46:49]
• Tracy: Notes quick spillover to consumers—rising fuel surcharges, especially in Asia and Australia.
• Joe: Emphasizes taking market prices seriously: “There is a lot of money on the line for people who are paid to take this very seriously. And if oil is trading below 100, I take that seriously and want to understand why.” [44:03]
• Both: Discuss the disconnect between financial and physical oil markets, and the anxiety about being caught out by a sudden peace announcement or regime change.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ozan Tarman:

  • “Traders always smell things, always have a sense of where the pain trade is, where the momentum is.” [07:09]
  • “Once you realize ... this is going to continue on and on ... people start selling their winners to build defense mechanisms.” [11:52]
  • “After a while, people say the best thing is a blank piece of paper, less trading, less watch. That’s why your opening question—some people see this market as untradable, but unfortunately in times like this ... flat is the new up. If you have survived, these are the moments to make the difference.” [14:49]
  • "Pain trade is when that herd gets a belief in a trade so much and when it works just the other way around." [18:19]
  • "If it's not starting to open in one month, now, three weeks, the world has a huge, huge, huge problem." [24:02]
  • "If people cannot take their money away from private credit and have to sell something liquid, then watch out for public credit...and public equity." [37:32]
  • "I'm not in love with the word stagflation, but ... yeah, we woke up that stagflation fear." [42:01]

• Tracy Alloway:

  • "[This] is the first like major conflict related market event where we have both sides to some extent using AI generated memes and content to ... express their point of view..." [28:09]
  • “I am starting to get frustrated with this knee jerk response ... Aries, Apollo curbing withdrawals ... and then everyone in private credit is like, well, this is fine. This is a feature of the system, it’s not a bug.” [36:03]

• Joe Weisenthal:

  • “I actually really don’t ... like, there will be a headline from the White House and oil will go down ... and I’m like, I don’t know about that. But ... there is a lot of money on the line for people who are paid to take this very seriously. And if oil is trading below 100, I take that seriously and I want to understand why...” [44:03]
  • “This is a fact. And I do think that’s a very interesting point that the people with a lot at stake, yeah, oil is high, but it’s certainly not at the hair on fire levels that either that we even saw in 2022.” [44:52]

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Key Timestamps

• 02:23–05:51: Market reactions to live Iranian headlines, cliche but real “headline-driven markets.”
• 07:09: Ozan on market pain trades, crowding, and client psychology.
• 10:27–13:45: Liquidation of “winner” trades, gold’s reversal, and positioning chaos.
• 18:19: Ozan defines the “pain trade.”
• 22:21–28:09: In-depth on oil, Europe’s vulnerabilities, and physical vs paper pricing.
• 28:09–29:59: Memes, social media, and info warfare on the trading floor.
• 36:03–39:34: Private credit stress, withdrawal restrictions, systemic risk potential.
• 42:07: Ozan warns about stagflation emerging from structural oil/gas shocks.
• 44:03–46:49: Joe and Tracy dissect why markets may be “wrong” (or not), importance of respecting market pricing, and ongoing uncertainty.

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Tone & Language

The episode is lively, fast-moving, with insightful banter and an urgent, skeptical tone appropriate for market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Ozan brings both humor and caution, Joe and Tracy blend sharp macro observation with real-world touches and skepticism of market consensus. The mood: professionals trying to make sense of chaos, balancing experience, instinct, and data—with no illusions about easy answers.

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Summary

This Odd Lots episode offers an exceptional exploration of how the world’s biggest money is navigating the Iran war, and the complex interplay between headline risk, market psychology, technical positioning, and fundamental uncertainty. Listeners come away with a realistic sense of how professionals are positioned, why markets are behaving as they are (and why that’s so hard to judge), and the acute pressures on everything from private credit to European equities. In a world where futures prices belie underlying stress, understanding the “pain trade,” bad volatility, and the evolving structure of global capital flows has never been more critical.

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For more, join the ongoing Odd Lots discussion on Discord or read the daily newsletter at bloomberg.com/oddlots.

Transcript

[Joe Weisenthal]

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

[Tracy Alloway]

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Tracy, we're recording this March 25, 2026. It's 9:10am and are you going to

[Tracy Alloway]

do the seconds as well?

[Joe Weisenthal]

No, but the reason I do mention the time this cash trading and the stock market hasn't opened. The reason I mentioned the time is not just because things are moving fast, but to establish we've had market moving headlines already this morning. Oh, absolutely. So just in the last like 15, 20 minutes, we got some headlines attributed to the Fars News agency out of Iran saying there is no interest in talks, there's no interest in ceasefire. The US position about pursuing a ceasefire is illogical. That mood futures down a little bit. We're, you know, it's a cliche, you know, headline driven market. You hear that a lot. The last several weeks have felt like the headline driven market to drive all. Headline driven.

[Tracy Alloway]

No, it really, I know it's a cliche, but it really is a headline driven market. And I think part of the issue here is because no one's entirely sure what the goals are when it comes to Iran. It's really hard to judge progress of the conflict on any sort of fundamental basis. Right. So all you can look at is basically what Trump and the other two sides are saying. And so you get these big reactions every time they tweet something or post on Truth social and then tend to contradict each other.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Absolutely. And you know, I do think, look, there is this extreme level of skepticism from almost any headline you get out of the U.S. white House. I think if you go back to the post Liberation Day environment, particularly with these sort of modest rapprochement with China, you would get these headlines, we're talking, and then the Chinese would put out a headline, we're not talking. But then it turns out that there was a little bit more talk than what maybe the Chinese side had admitted to. So often. I think as much as you dis, many people are inclined to disbelieve headlines. I don't think people disbelieve them entirely. When Trump said yesterday that the Iranians had sent him a prize that was extremely valuable and it's like, whew. I mean, that's tough to take seriously. But is there some modest signal? I don't know. It's really tough. It's really tough. But I, you know, I just want to say two other things real quickly on this, which is that even with the headlines today about Iran rejecting cease fire, futures are still up. So it's not like people have like completely, oh, nothing's happening. And for all the talk about, and we've had multiple guests and they're the smartest people in the world, talk about, oh, oil is going to surge the longer this goes on. As of the time we're talking about this, Brent crude is still right around or just under $100. We haven't had the mega surge yet. So I like to take markets seriously, even if sometimes I don't always understand what they're doing.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, the big question to me is whether or not markets are still in denial. Right. And you see people talking about like, oh, people are being very optimistic about the future. I saw the Morgan Stanley report saying that corporate profits were going to go up later this year, the oil price again. We're talking about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the sort of thought experiment that has bedeviled oil analysts for decades. And yet, you know, the reaction has been kind of muted.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

Meanwhile, in the rates market, there's a lot going on there too. And you still have a lot of bond traders who are very reluctant to price out the possibility of a rate cut later this year completely.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And it feels like the idea of a rate cut, at least for now, does not seem anywhere near the quote table. But yeah, anyway, so how do traders even like make sense of this headline? How do they know what headlines to believe? What why does there sometimes seem to be this gap between what a lot of people think the market should be and where it actually is? Very excited to say we have one of the most plugged in people that we know is someone who is talking to people who move serious money every single day. He goes around the world and he has dinners with them and he talks to them about their trades. He even brought us a nice gift which is his Tour T shirt. It is the COVID the Macro Dinners 2026 tour with a nice Deutsche bank logo.

[Tracy Alloway]

But you should read some of those cities just to give an idea the

[Joe Weisenthal]

dates of the macro dinner tour. January 4 London 21 Geneva, January 9 Milan, Miami, Budapest, London, New York City, Montreal, Copenhagen, Riyadh, Doha, Dubai, etc. You get the idea. He's always talking to people and he is the one of the most plugged in people that we talk to. We are going to be speaking, of course, to the one and only Ozan Tarman, vice chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. So, Ozan, thank you for coming back on Outlod.

[Ozan Tarman]

Joe and Tracy, it's an absolute pleasure. Highlights of the week. Very close to where I used to live in New York City as well.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It's great having you here in studio. It's a pretty wild market to trade, I assume.

[Ozan Tarman]

Very, very wild market to trade. And on the T shirt, unfortunately, for example, this Riyadh, Qatar, Dubai leg that I was looking forward to, we'll see what happens. Oh right, we'll see what happens with that. But not necessarily untradable. Still, traders always smell things, always have a sense of where the pain trade is, where the momentum is. Even walking in now I became a veteran of this wonderful show. I was thinking this time around we should really say Wednesday night.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, that's right.

[Ozan Tarman]

You know how I know that? What I can say now one day later may look a little bit different etc, etc but still walking in now obviously it's a big cliche to say it takes two to tango or taco three maybe. But that being said, at the moment, the pain trade, the momentum trade is for this equity rally and oil fall to continue. There are many unfortunately. I have told all my clients, friends, hands wounded, hurt players out there, certainly in race markets, certainly on front end. So people are reluctant to take fresh bets. But as I constantly hold these conversations roundtables, I do get the sense that now getting to know the president well as well, people did expect this. We won the war, I won the war, mission accomplished moment which he's trying to do in a few ways then the big debate is yes, and we do get these spikes of equity. Sire, oil lower at the end, as you rightly said. Even Brent is lower than 100 and we should talk. VTI is even lower. But do you fade it or not? That's what it boils down to. Another big true cliche is what does Iran do? What does Iran say as we speak because of fars like you said, Israel 12 said these 12 are happening farce. Iran said no, we're still waiting which one to fade. That's the big question mark. My gut feel from what I sense from the clients is there is room for a squeeze here in equities higher, oil lower but the tail risk is very, very fat.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

Wait, so talk to us more about positioning. I mean going into this war, I think everyone was pretty much expecting rate cuts later in the year, oil prices, nothing dramatic there certainly did. Everyone just change very, very quickly. And now we're left with positioning that can lead to a bigger squeeze higher.

[Ozan Tarman]

Very relevant question. I want to take us back to February 27, the night before the attack on Iran. Again, I was visiting Palm beach and Miami and the feel couldn't be more different. The main obsession focus of the US client base, the key players was AI research. Something big is going to happen. Schumer how 50% of white collar jobs could be lost in 12 to 18 months. So finally, not only rate cut expectations were increasing. We were getting bull Flatness So even long end was coming down Thursday, Friday it was around 405 and I do remember before Iran US 10 year closed top tick 3.93 and cannot be named. But one of those more legendary France clients of mine comes to me with an email. Ozan nailed this. This that bond is the new gold. We need to talk about our friend gold as well.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Look what happened to that.

[Ozan Tarman]

One more thing. Another good friend. I did bring this on paper because very very telling. This guy sends me a message. I think the Tuesday or Wednesday before Iran the multi trillion question is can the rest of the world isolate itself from this destruction? I'm not sure he was talking more about the AI fears. Another observation today reminds me of early February 2020. While we all saw people falling over in China, it became clear by the day that we're about to see a pandemic. The S and P made new all time high. The same is today with Iran. Nobody cares. I mean yeah rings so true now right?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Actually let's talk about gold in positioning for a second. The last time we had you on was September and one of the themes of that was the relentless bid into gold. And whenever we frame a conversation I'm like oh God, this is going to be the top. It was not the top even close. So that was gold was around 3,800 announced during that episode. It got over $5,500 an ounce. Nearly February as of yesterday we saw a 10 day gold selloff. How much is this? Just about all these different trades not working at once. The steepener trade not working at once. The oil trade not working at the same time and essentially a lot of players being forced to liquidate the one big winning thing that they had in their portfolio.

[Ozan Tarman]

Very much so. And look, I love you guys but on the last show as well when we all started with gold Nvidia gold N I was very, you know, happily and politely answering but in my mind I was saying this is an orange sign.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I know, of course.

[Ozan Tarman]

So and then I listened to our show we did. So I'm like risk on this works. Risk off, this works. I'm like Joe Tracey. Like it has to be something that comes from the left field that gets the whole thing unwound. And even though the guy says here Iran people look at nobody cares. The repercussions on the position is just like you said that people to get out of all winners. And gold was a big winner. Emerging markets were big winners. So that was the first trigger and then another story. Now once you are in this position. Once you realize it's not days, it's not weeks, this is going to continue on and on petrodollar countries. Other people start selling their winners to build defense mechanisms. I mean it's almost like public reporting in terms of China, my motherland, Turkey, India, they have these gold reserves for a reason. So that's another reason why first technicals you go after your winner and then fundamentally some of these strong hands for understandable reasons are selling them. Everything happened back to Tracy's question. So people were all into these bear flatten steepness first then they believed in bull flatteners because everything was all rates were coming down. Then you get into this world and thanks for jumping onto it Monday after Iran Warflation Warflation. This is serious. Inflation expectations will increase. It's not as simple as finding the next Venezuela Dersy and my God from like getting ready for cut discussion 1, 2 or maybe 3 in Fed at least hold ECB and certainly cut bank of England. Look where we are now for a while. We've priced in four hikes for bank of England and ecb. We're right below three now for both. That's huge. That means seats are lost, pods are closed.

[Tracy Alloway]

How many times have you heard the word liquidation or you know, a pod shop blowing up in the past few weeks?

[Ozan Tarman]

A lot unfortunately. Right? Capitulation. And I teach all our young stars or mentors. So after all the cliche is oh, investment bank will do well, trading floor will do well because you know, bid offer fear. No, not like that. After a while there is really something called bad volatility. And this is bad volatility. From these crazy headlines being that much slaves to what somebody says at Friday 10pm to Saturday 11pm to also this much of liquidation and capitulation. After a while people say the best thing is a blank piece of paper, less trading and less watch. That's why your opening question Some people see this market as untradable, but unfortunately in times like this, especially if you're not wounded somehow, flat is the new up. If you have survived, these are the moments to make the difference. Who knows? Who knows Joe? Maybe this is right around April 9, 2025 moments. This is when maybe this is right around the dip and we will remember it like the time we were able to look through it. I have my doubts, but maybe.

[Joe Weisenthal]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

pain trade and why is that a useful concept?

[Ozan Tarman]

Very good questions. You know what triggers me a pain? I mean, it's not the ideal definition, maybe because you don't want your clients and friends to be in pain, but a lot of it, even before the days of quant trading, crowding out positioning is so important for this market. After a while it can become as important as a fundamental factor. After a while, you do feel that in these echo chambers, players almost want to believe because of the pricing fundamentals on what they're talking about. So pain trade is when that herd gets a belief in a trade so much and when it works just the other way around. I mean, what happens to gold is a big one because for a long time it was unshaken. But sometimes even smaller instances, like for the past 15 to 18 months, we really believe that big dollar would trade soft. What I mean by that is either because of hedge ratios, de dollarization, dollar wouldn't be the safe haven that it used to be. It would make sense to sell dollars whenever one has a chance. Now all of a sudden because of Iran, because of people building up, selling their winners to go to safe havens. If we trade towards the 110, 111 before 121, 21, that's a much less talked about pain trade. Why? Because it's going to further shake places like rest of the world, emerging markets, Korea, et cetera, et cetera. And of course it opens conversation, right? Sometimes you say, sometimes pain trade is so obvious, sometimes somebody says no, that trade is there for a reason, consensus is going to continue to work. You develop a market, you trade on

[Tracy Alloway]

it, on the dollar. And this is related to gold as well. We do seem to be in this weird situation where, okay, people are liquidating the successful trades to raise cash, go neutral, whatever. But at the same time, you still have plenty of people talking about diversification away from the US and you could make a very strong argument that given what's happening in the oil market right now, maybe you don't want to only price that in dollars. Maybe you want to start thinking about other currencies. How are people thinking about the, I guess like US exceptionalism trade at the moment? Because there's two cross currents for sure.

[Ozan Tarman]

It's moving from US exceptionalism, selling your US assets to more hedge ratios. It definitely moved, let's put it that way again, at the beginning of January, February, all these events one after another. Venezuela, Greenland. My God, so much happened in three months.

[Tracy Alloway]

Tell us about it.

[Ozan Tarman]

Powell's case again, not necessarily selling your US asset, but buying more, buying less, increasing your hedge ratios had become fashionable. But you're very right, traces my partner in success. One of them, George Cerros, head of our FX strategy, he has this. We love George, we all do. He has this rough formula. Euro dollar roughly 2 thirds oil price, 1 third gas price. It should have traded around 112.50113 as we speak. It doesn't. Part of the reason is exactly this. Despite what oil is doing, despite what gas is doing, people do want to own a little bit less dollars. But unfortunately, as I sit here, as I come to my odlas every three months or so, vice chair Deutsche bank, proudly waving my blue make Europe great again hat it's in trouble of it. Whether this war takes another one week, two week, two months, the wounds will stay. The wounds will especially stay in oil and gas prices. We disrupt the supply enough and the big importer, the ones who need those oil and gas prices lower, is Europe. So in an understanding way, talking about when consensus starts becoming more sense in these roundtables and beyond, it's becoming a bit fashionable to start questioning the European equities, European credits, funny enough, it doesn't show as much yet in the effects, but watch out for the equity and credit angle of the zero trade.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So this, this is really important, which is that basically, okay, there is this long term pessimism about Europe, but there had been some optimism recently and cheaper energy prices certainly help the relative competitiveness and profitability of the domestic industrial giants and so forth. But we're going to probably be, regardless of the length of the war, in a period of structurally higher energy prices. And that continues to build to the negative side of Europe. So let's talk a little bit more about oil because if you just talk to the oil analysts who I love like their hair is on fire right now, and they probably, you know, this is cataclysm. But Brent crude, not only is it well off its highs from a week ago, it's not even anywhere close to its highs in 2022 at the peak of the inflation. I mean, we got at one point in March 2022, Brent crude was at 139. We're below 99 actually right now. When I'm talking about this the thing is like, oh, you closed the straight of Hormuz, oil just explodes, etc. We all know it, we all see it. There is nothing that any of us. You can like be online all day and talk to all the energy experts. You are like, you do not know more information than the market does. So talk to us like how you're thinking about oil and the fact that there does seem to be this gap between the hair on fire rhetoric of the oil knowers versus the prices which are high. But even by the scale the last five years, not insane.

[Ozan Tarman]

I was as the question was coming, I was preparing my next note to retort. But first of all, on the oil and fire, we all see and respect Jeff Curry what he said about molecules. And interesting people are watching, right? Did you see the tweet of head of Iran Parliament?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Oh yeah, he usually you can't print molecules. This is another thing. He also referred to another thing as fake news. Everyone around the world is now talking the same. That actually reminds me of a friend who visited Afghanistan and he met some people working for the Taliban and like they started whatsapping him like Pepe the Frog memes and they called him a soy boy and stuff like that. Like everyone talks the same way anyway, that bit of a divergence.

[Tracy Alloway]

But it's a little bit depressing that this is the common language now.

[Joe Weisenthal]

This is the lingua franc of the Internet.

[Ozan Tarman]

We all, everyone says warflation, everyone says

[Joe Weisenthal]

all right, but talk more about.

[Ozan Tarman]

But this physical versus paper trading is very, very important. So this friend of mine, ex colleague, I worked with him for decades, big commodity trader, now a dear client. And you know one of these guys, he talks math. So mit, Russia's mit, et cetera, et cetera. He sends me a message and we are now even one more week late. This is last week and he doesn't do Ozan high all the time. Ozan high on Hormuz. If it's not starting to open in one month, now, three weeks, the world has a huge, huge, huge problem. And this is not ozone. This guy doesn't say Qatar. LNG will need months to restart once rumors is clear. And in oil we have 10 millibytes of shut ins already. And Asian refineries are very, very starved. Pipelines to Red Sea would take years. And also Arnata panacea, et cetera, et cetera. He talks about Houthis, so I get it. Brand vs what WTI, WTI is trading even better, etc. Etc. But especially if the likes of Fars is correct if we have a lot of talk. But one way or another, this Hormuz is only two, three tanks. You know, one Indian tank, one China tank. I do fear that these guys warning us about physical delivery, maybe more. Right?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah. And look, of course, and I get the logic but the people in the oil market who are trading, whether they're speculators, whether hedge funds, whether they're real oil companies who are having to hedge production, they have a lot of money at the line. They know all of this. There is nothing that can be said about the longer this goes on, blah blah blah, the more that gets shut in, blah blah blah. We're running out of storage, it's going to take time to rebuild. There's nothing that could be said. And yet here we are at the

[Ozan Tarman]

and I respect their approach as well. This comes back to also why equities haven't sold off that much, why credit hasn't sold off that much. At the end of the day, okay, it may not be Venezuela, we didn't find it dirty. But I think people do believe that this squeeze longer squeeze will come and it's not that easy to fade. So whether it's Islamabad, whether it's Vance meeting somebody in Islamabad, whether President I wouldn't be surprised in two days saying I need one more week and you know, creating a delay. People do believe that in three months time, six months time, that's the forward oil market as well. We will not be talking about this. We will be talking much more about AI or private credit. That's why the tail is big. That's why okay, another. I'm choosing my words carefully as well. But Marines are approaching. We're talking about Carg Island. These French clients talk to that ex general this ex general some claim that taking control of hormones once marines are dead are there may not be that difficult in imagine that going wrong. Imagine, you know of course lives being lost. But even Joe one or two ships getting hit. These are not, these are not army professionals driving those ships. These are people. People on payroll. So even on one gas ship, one oil ship hit, things can get out of hand very very quickly. And that's why by the way, let's link it back to markets. Okay, you have a point. Oil brand is still below 100 but look what ECB and Bank of England pricing did. And they're not backing away. They're saying Madame Lagarde today of course she sounded calm. She didn't say I embrace the 3 hike pricing, I will hike. But she did say we will Be we're watching this. So back to the 2020 analogies. People don't want to be seen late. Things can move very, very fast.

[Tracy Alloway]

I do want to talk about private credit because I think it's important and it's kind of gotten overshadowed by the Iran situation for obvious reasons. But. But just going back to the Taliban and soy boys, which is a sentence I never thought I would say on this podcast. I mean this is the first like major conflict related market event where we have both sides to some extent using AI generated memes and content to for, you know, propaganda purposes to express their point of view on how the conflict is going and what they're trying to achieve. I am very curious on a trading floor, if you're a big investor, when Iran tweets like a Lego video showing Trump doing something or showing their reaction to Trump doing something, are traders watching those and thinking seriously about them?

[Ozan Tarman]

Thinking seriously about them? I don't know but. And they're watching, they're forwarding each other the things. But more key thing is, yeah, people do start to weed out the more credible sources or the more credible reverse signs. In this day and age, we all translate from Arabic very, very quickly. We do compare what a US source says on a potential Islamabad meeting versus what an Iranian source says. After a while you do get a sense that which Iranian source seems to be more connected than the other. All of these things are. I'm not going to say it makes our job easier, but it makes our job even more spicy, complicated in a way we do have. Yeah, I completely get you Lego and memes is one extreme. Not very useful. But on the useful side, yeah, there's the Iranian credible journalist is right there on the table tweeting and telling you, look at that, look at this. That helps.

[Joe Weisenthal]

You know, I'm thinking about your shirt again and the dinners that are scheduled in the Gulf region that may or may not happen. Which brings me. You know, you're someone who is extremely, extremely plugged into money in that area. And there's this question of like, does something change in the trajectory about the business of Dubai? There was a headline about Millennium. Did you see that?

[Tracy Alloway]

I saw it.

[Joe Weisenthal]

They may move some traders to Jersey, which. Okay, cards on the table. Like Dubai. I've never been. I doubt it's my cup of tea.

[Tracy Alloway]

I feel like you say with some certainty that Dubai is more fun than.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, this is what I'm saying. It looks nicer than what I imagine the island of Jersey is, which I just imagine it's very gray and bleak all the time. I don't know. But I assume like, you know, do you think there's any of the talk about is there going to be a real trajectory in the amount of money flowing into the Gulf? Is that really in and out, flowing in and out?

[Ozan Tarman]

Yeah, short term and medium term answer? Medium term answer. Of course I do. I have some dear friends there. Beyond this industry, other other industries like direct analogy. When I come to New York, obviously you see your clients, but you see your friends in Dubai. You have to give even more time because there has been such a move for different funds, taxes, you know the deal. People do have short term memory, do remember Covid. But at the same time, of course this will have an effect. Other areas may try to get some of that influence. Maybe some of those people go back to London, maybe places like Milan, other areas of Asia gets more interesting. Absolutely. Heart goes out to them, but at the same time it affects the sentiment as well. By the way, part of the reason why many people got the whole Iranian thing wrong. War, inflation, all that, it was that too. So not only from that Friday night, Saturday morning of attack to Monday, we didn't get a dirty, you know, the way I put it, you know, Abdullah to Faisullah, etc. You know, there was no regime change, but Iran immediately began hitting gcc. Lifestyles got affected. That affects sentiment. So way before the worries about inflation and war inflation and supply change, supply change, sentiment got affected right there. So my hope and thinking, a year from now when we do the show again, the effect and power of Dubai and Qatar will still be there. But yes, in the short term it's not going away. It's an important market moving factor.

[Joe Weisenthal]

By the way, did you see that Dulce Rodriguez is going to be speaking in Miami at a investment conference backed by Saudi Arabia? I'm just saying they don't make communists like they used to.

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[Tracy Alloway]

private credit because we have all these headlines coming out about redemption requests and a bunch of funds limiting those, as is their right in the fund documentation. However, I am starting to get frustrated with this knee jerk response which is you see all these headlines, you know, Aries, Apollo curbing withdrawals. And then everyone in private credit is like, well, this is fine. This is a feature of the system, it's not a bug. And obviously investors should have read the docs and this is exactly what's supposed to happen. Whereas to me it seems very clear there is stress in private credit regardless of what's actually happening with withdrawals. And if you think about private credit as this huge asset class that was growing enormously in recent years and was a major source of credit and financing for companies in America, then it seems very clear to me that what we should be talking about right now is a potential tightening of financial conditions. And as some of that demand starts to ebb away, how are you thinking about the private credit space and when you're doing your meetings with investors? I'm very curious how much time is spent on private credit versus Iran right now.

[Ozan Tarman]

Right before Iran, it was all about private credit and AIs of the world. Now, as immediate headline to you last night when I did a small roundtable, of course it all started with Iran, but I did make sure that we went to private credit. And I'm with you, Tracey. The immediate reaction there, from directly involved people to more macro tourists, it's not systemic. It's not systemic. It's not 2008, maybe 2001. We smile at each other. That to me immediately, a bit of an orange sign. Okay, I understand. So it all seems orderly, withdrawals are orderly, et cetera, et cetera. But headlines are not going away. If anything, they are definitely hiding behind Iran at the moment. It would be almost all what we would be talking about, especially in US if it wasn't for Iran. And by the way, because of that, my blue hat would, would have done much better than us. So that's another sad thing, right? It's like quote unquote, US and Israel's war. But Europe and UK and rest of the world gets hurt more. But anyway, these are the new cars we're dealt with. The key thing to watch is at the moment they claim it's orderly, you get your money. If it feels more and more like this, A, B, C, we see the headlines, you're not going to be able to get your money for a while then. First time you mention my binky, I'm very curious to see what he says tonight on my macro dinner. It's a Wednesday macro dinner, big macro dinner tonight. He's still sticking to his 8,000. Why? If people cannot take their money away from private credit and have to sell something liquid, then watch out for public credit that has been staying very resilient and of course watch out public equity. So I'm watching that space very, very carefully. I do understand why they immediately say it's not systemic. I get it. But you know, okay, maybe it's not 2008, but it may be something between this 2001-2008 also. It's very in to say yeah, it's not leverage is not there. Thank God we may not see The Northern Rock BBC scenes of 2007, 2008, all these queues and stuff. It's a more quote unquote 1% problem. But what if it spreads and spreads and some of the big US banks start lending less to these friends? What if insurance companies get hit more and more? Watch this space. I think it's a bit too superficial to say it's not systemic. It's going to be okay. It's almost like the bank crisis of two years ago in this place. I'm more worried than that.

[Joe Weisenthal]

You know, one of the things we're talking about is this very violent rates move and war, inflation and so forth. But one of the things that's emerged in the last few weeks is there's growing evidence that actually inflation was re accelerating even prior to the start of the war. And so when we look at these moves, we might attribute some of them to the war itself and the pass through of oil prices and the military spending and that of course Trump gets another $200 billion for defense. We're that's more spending, that's inflationary. But maybe like could it be that that is actually not the story that the bigger story in rates is simply that the data showing that through the end of February there is more evidence that inflation was not heading down to 2% as many people had maybe wishcasted.

[Ozan Tarman]

And that's a really blow to my heart in terms of expectations and stuff, right? Because quote, unquote, we almost had them on on February 27 close.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We had a good thing.

[Ozan Tarman]

It was a hurricane. It was a hurricane. Obviously much more important than market. It's a tragedy for humanity, war, et cetera, but for the market as well. It was a hierarchy. Ty was at 393. If that NFP printed like that, maybe we would be talking 10 year 370s et cetera. NAV Genie is completely out of the bottle for very understandable reasons. Another word I want to relate to inflation. And before we wrap up this whole rationing, that's a big watch out for Europe, for in Asia, if this continues like this, if my Russia MIT friend is right about Hormuz and the problems, after a while, people are already talking about, look at Philippines headlines today for their airlines. We may very soon be at a point when some of these Asian countries can say, look, I need to give energy and fuel to my very important famous company. But much more important than that, I need to give fuel and energy and electricity to my households. Sorry, I have to choose. Yeah, in Europe, we may be told maybe, you know, don't use that air conditioning. Too much work from home, more travel, less back to my T shirt. Sadly, Dubai, Qatar may be postponed for understandable reasons. But what about Asia? All these airline prices will shoot up. Maybe for work I will go, but for leisure, maybe there will be one less trouble. All of this stuff will hurt growth. At the same time, it will need rationing, means more fiscal measures, means more inflation expectations. So, you know, I'm not in love with the word stagflation, but also I'm a rational guy. My job is to smell the market. Yeah, we woke up that stagflation fear.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Azan Tarman, thank you so much for coming back on Adelaide. Thank you for the T shirts.

[Ozan Tarman]

Absolutely.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Always appreciate checking in with you and always talk to you again soon. Next quarter we'll do our quarterly check.

[Ozan Tarman]

Next time.

[Tracy Alloway]

Wait, will you put us on the T shirt? It's one of your stops.

[Ozan Tarman]

I should.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That's what I need.

[Ozan Tarman]

You guys are the highlight.

[Tracy Alloway]

Thanks.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, thank you so much. I always love catching up with Ozan. I just find it, you know, it's just incredibly useful to talk to someone who's always talking to people for sure. Right. Like that is a valuable thing in its own right. Ozan has very interesting perspectives, but to be able to just like channel his, like his brilliant MIT friend, what the people said at the Macro dinner last night, always very useful, you know, also

[Tracy Alloway]

to Ozan's point, about actual capacity cuts in Asia and Europe. So, you know, because I travel a lot and I've lived in different places, I'm on all these different random emailing lists for, for, like, services and flights and airlines and transportation and things like that. And I am starting to get the fuel surcharge email. I got one from an Australian car service that I used once ages ago. A lot of Indian airlines are starting to Add fuel surcharges. Like you can see it coming and it's happening actually like pretty quickly.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I just don't want to travel right now. Especially with all the lines you see in the U.S. no, seriously, that's a separate issue. I know it's a separate issue, but it's like I just want to cancel as much as I can.

[Tracy Alloway]

I'll remind you of that the next time we're debating whether or not to go to an external event and you're like, yeah, I want to go.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I don't want to go right now. I don't want to go to anything. But anyway, seriously, you know, I do think like this is the thing that I think about a lot, which is that I've always been a take market seriously and sometimes take them literally guy. And I actually really don't.

[Tracy Alloway]

I know you're a secret EMH bro.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, not even so secret. And I really don't like, you know, there will be a headline from the White House and oil will go down and everyone will say, oh, people are so stupid. They're being, you know, the investors are so stupid. Traders are so stupid. There's a lie, whatever. And I'm like, I don't know about that. But like, my point is there is a lot of money on the line for people who are paid to take this very seriously. And if oil is trading below 100, I take that seriously and I want to understand why there's the gap because there's nothing that all of us online and in the media know that the people with a lot of money on the line don't know. Right. This is a fact. And I do think that's a very interesting point that the people with a lot at stake, yeah, oil is high, but it's certainly not at the hair on fire levels that either that we even saw in 2022.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, my guess is that what we're seeing also is a divorce between the financial and the physical.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That's true.

[Tracy Alloway]

Right. So you can, you can trade oil futures and assume that you're not going to have to take delivery at some point. But at the same time, if you're after the physical barrels, ye like you can't get those at the moment. So I don't even know how that like actually relates to price.

[Joe Weisenthal]

There's apparently some price that we see Rory Johnston is always quoting about the actual physical price. And Oman. Yeah. Significantly higher. But the two eventually have to merge. Right. Like they cannot remain disconnected.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah. But not for, not for a while. So I think that Disconnect is kind of like what's in focus at the moment.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, if you're trading front month oil, you have about a month, right?

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah. Okay, fine. But like, I think people are betting on, like, I don't have to worry about it for a month. That's what I'm saying.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Very plausible. It's certainly a very, very difficult, unusual time. I mean.

[Tracy Alloway]

Oh, totally. And this is the other thing to your point, like, it is very true that the outcome of all of this basically hinges on three players and one player in particular. And at any moment in time, you could have someone come out and announce a ceasefire, at which point to Ozan's comments earlier, like, you could see an almighty rally just because of positioning going into this. You could see a squeeze, like without an agreement.

[Public Investing Announcer]

Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

And so I think, like, that's also where a lot of the nervousness is coming from. Like no one wants to be caught completely offside if the conflict suddenly ends.

[Joe Weisenthal]

You know, Ozan used the term bad Vol. And I think that makes sense. Which is okay, on one hand, the trading desks, sure, there's a lot of activity in some sense, and so that is a source of profit. On the other hand, this is the type of environment where it's like, maybe you just want to stay away. You want to keep positions light. If you have a position, you don't want to go all in or anything like that.

[Tracy Alloway]

I'm imagining a trader staring at the VIX curve and going, bad volume, bad volume, bad. All right, shall we leave it there?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let's leave it there.

[Tracy Alloway]

This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me. Raceyallaway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me. Hestalwart. Follow our guest, Ozan Tarman. He's on ktarman. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez, Armanarman, Dashiell Bennett at dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.comoddlaws we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. You can chat about all these topics 24. 7 in our Discord Discord GG Oddlaws.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we bring on Ozan to talk about his binky, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg Subs subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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[Ozan Tarman]

Okta secures AI this podcast is brought

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