Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Summary

Odd Lots Podcast Summary

Episode: Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets
Date: April 9, 2026
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway
Guest: Thomas Peterffy (Founder & Chairman, Interactive Brokers)

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode explores the emerging role of prediction markets in professional and institutional investing, focusing on Interactive Brokers’ (IBKR) new platform, Forecast Trader. Through a wide-ranging and candid conversation with Thomas Peterffy, a market structure innovator, the show delves into the challenges and promise of prediction markets, their market design complexities, institutional adoption, the importance of contract “seriousness," regulatory hurdles, and the parallels and contrasts with traditional financial markets.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Economic Value of Prediction Markets vs. “Silly” Contracts

• Economic Usefulness and Contract Seriousness
  • Tracy opens questioning the economic value of some prediction market contracts, e.g., “Will Jesus Christ return?” while acknowledging there are legitimate economic hedging needs for contracts like “Will there be a recession before 2027?” (04:22).
  • Joe highlights the purity of expressing macroeconomic bets in prediction markets versus using proxies like stocks/bonds (04:22–05:01).
  • Tomas compares prediction markets to stock markets: important questions (e.g., Microsoft, Nvidia) co-exist with “silly” ones (e.g., Gamestop), emphasizing the mechanism shouldn’t be blamed for frivolous listings (07:30).

    “You cannot blame prediction market, the mechanism itself, for the silly things that some platforms list. The idea here is to gather the consensus opinion of people who are preferably experts... and to gather their consensus so that we can all include that in our decision making.” – Tomas Peterffy (07:30)

2. Institutional Adoption and the Liquidity Hurdle

• Why Institutions Haven't Flocked to Prediction Markets
  • Liquidity is a primary obstacle; prediction markets currently lack the depth institutions require (10:58).
  • Peterffy draws a parallel with the slow, decades-long growth curve of options markets, noting options’ greater complexity might mean prediction markets can grow faster (11:20–13:10).
  • Forecast Trader is positioned differently from retail-focused or sports-driven markets like Kalshi or Polymarket by catering to institutional seriousness and “serious” contracts (13:13–15:39).

    "Kalshi doesn't have [institutional investors]. For us, prediction markets are an addendum ... Kalshi has no investors basically other than investors in the prediction markets. ... So for them ... they had to add things like sports." – Tomas Peterffy (13:45)

  • IBKR deliberately excludes sports and pop culture contracts to avoid distraction and focus on economic relevance (15:39).

3. Market Structure Innovations & Challenges

• IBKR Creating Its Own Market Venue

  • Unlike most of IBKR’s offerings, Forecast Trader is a proprietary venue—both broker and exchange—which is a structural departure from routing trades to existing markets (19:41–21:52).

    “This is the first market where nothing has existed like it.” – Tomas Peterffy (21:22)

  • Technical and regulatory hurdles delayed IBKR’s entry into prediction markets for nearly a decade due to concerns over banking licenses and regulatory uncertainty (22:12–24:36).
  • On leverage: IBKR is developing leverage offerings for prediction contracts but is wary of the risks, citing historical brokerage failures due to leverage (25:16–26:13).

• Contract Specification & Consolidation

  • IBKR plans to offer a consolidated view of contracts across venues, akin to best execution for stocks, but faces the challenge of differing contract definitions—a fungibility issue (29:49–31:15).

    “We are going to structure our contracts to be identical. Whenever it's possible.” – Tomas Peterffy (30:55)

  • Requirement for industry agreement on contract terms and possibly shared adjudication bodies (54:07).

4. Regulatory Hurdles and the Security vs. Commodity Divide

• Regulatory barriers prevent listing contracts directly related to company-specific events due to the ambiguity of which regulator (SEC vs. CFTC) applies (50:48–52:33).

  "There are many questions concerning specific companies ... but we do not know if the question would be a security or a commodity and do not know who should properly regulate it and therefore we don't ask these questions." – Tomas Peterffy (50:48)

5. Insider Trading: A Provocative Stance

• Tomas shares a personal story of losing half his starting capital to insider trading early in his career (35:07–37:28).
• Despite traumatic losses, he controversially argues for abolishing insider trading laws, reasoning that faster information dissemination benefits society (32:12–33:44).

  “I’m in favor of not having any rules against insider trading. I would like all the information out there as soon as it’s available… As a society, we’re better off knowing as soon as possible anything that is knowable.” – Tomas Peterffy (32:12)

• Hosts press him on “sharks” and fairness, but Peterffy contends open flow of information would minimize the advantage duration for insiders (34:07–34:46).

6. Probabilities, AI & Market Philosophy

• Philosophy of Probabilistic Thinking
  • Peterffy views prediction markets as an educational tool to teach probabilistic thinking—discouraging binary or absolute thinking in favor of embracing uncertainty (46:28).
• Historical Market Tech
  • Tomas recounts his early development of an options pricing model and his use of computer spreadsheets—precursors to modern automated trading (43:38–45:21).
  • Hosts discuss the non-deterministic nature of AI and its fit with probabilistic pricing in options and prediction markets (45:21–46:28).
• AI and Market Innovation
  • Peterffy frames AI as resembling a new, higher-level natural programming language—not fundamentally different from prior technical leaps, but much more powerful (39:02).

7. Forecasts, Scope, and the Future

• Prediction Markets as Reference Data

  • The vision: Prediction markets could become as widely referenced as credit spreads for understanding macro events and policy moves (26:13–26:54).
  • Economists may transition from issuing verbal forecasts to trading positions; good ones profit, bad ones lose (27:53).

• Growth Trajectory and Potential

  • Peterffy projects long-term significance but refrains from setting “testable” growth targets, dismissing consultant-style volume projections (48:00).

    “It’s going to be very, very big because it’s extremely useful and it’s a very simple way for all of us to direct our decision making.” – Tomas Peterffy (48:00)

  • Example discussed: Contracts on higher education tuition, e.g., “Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?” (48:41).

• Impact on Capital Markets

  • Tracy probes whether widespread use of prediction markets as pure betting venues might divert capital from productive allocation (49:27–50:15).
  • Peterffy points out that margin is typically invested in Treasury bills, so money supports the broader financial system (50:15).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Silliness:
  “Penny stocks are the original production markets.” – Tracy Alloway (09:14)
• On Institutionalism:
  “No hedge fund gets out of bed for less than $20,000.” – Tracy Alloway (06:26)
• On Contract Choice:
  “We are choosing contracts that … have questions, the answers to which have serious economic consequences.” – Tomas Peterffy (16:05)
• On Prediction Market Potential:
  “Definitely, I’m absolutely convinced [institutions will use these].” – Tomas Peterffy (09:56)
• On Insider Trading:
  “If insider information just came out as soon as possible, there would be very little opportunity for the sharks to be around…” – Tomas Peterffy (34:07)
• Market-Making History:
  “When I bought my seat on the American Stock Exchange as an Options Trader in 1977… I lost $90,000 [to insider trading] and it was horrible.” – Tomas Peterffy (35:07)
• On AI:
  “AI is basically a higher level language which is a natural language. And it also has to it available all the data that exists in the world.” – Tomas Peterffy (39:02)
• On Fungibility:
  “We are going to structure our contracts to be identical. Whenever it’s possible.” – Tomas Peterffy (30:55)
• Tracy’s Summary:
  “It does feel like the steady march of progress is sort of in this direction... it feels inevitable.” – Tracy Alloway (54:42)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Seriousness of Prediction Markets: 03:40–07:11
• Liquidity and Institutional Challenges: 10:58–13:10
• IBKR’s Unique Positioning: 13:10–15:39
• Market Structure, Own Venue: 19:41–21:52
• Why Prediction Markets Didn’t Come Earlier: 21:52–24:36
• Regulatory Hurdles and SEC/CFTC Divide: 50:48–52:33
• Insider Trading Story & Stance: 32:12–37:32
• Tech Evolution & Early Option Pricing: 43:38–45:21
• AI, Probabilities, and Philosophy: 39:02–46:28
• Fungibility & Contract Standardization: 29:49–31:15
• Prediction Markets as Reference Data/Economist Participation: 26:13–27:53
• Speculation on Long-Term Growth/Scope: 48:00–49:27
• Impact on Capital Markets: 49:27–50:15

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Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is thoughtful, logical, and at times provocative—especially on regulatory and philosophical issues (e.g., abolishing insider trading laws). Peterffy combines deep market knowledge, historical anecdotes, and a clear vision for prediction markets as a powerful, inevitable addition to the institutional investor’s toolkit. The hosts challenge, clarify, and contextualize, making the discussion rich and accessible—while occasionally poking fun at the “silliness” and unpredictability of markets.

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Bottom Line:
Prediction markets are on the cusp of institutional relevance—with design, regulation, and product seriousness the critical battlegrounds. IBKR is betting big on making prediction markets both professional and useful, with a distinct focus on economic and investment-relevant questions, and Tomas Peterffy sees these platforms becoming a major tool for both traders and decision-makers—faster, purer, and more democratic than traditional forms of economic consensus.

Transcript

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[Tracy Alloway]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

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[Tracy Alloway]

IBM hey there ODD Lots listeners. Joe and I are very excited to announce that we will be hosting a live show in London on Thursday, May 7th.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yep, that's right. We've never been to London before. Well, we've been to London before, but in other capacities. We've never done a public episode a public show in London. We've done them in other cities. New York City, D.C. chicago, San Francisco and so forth. This will be our first London one and I'm really excited about it.

[Tracy Alloway]

Very exciting. So if you want to hear some fantastic conversations being recorded live on stage, if you want to hang out with Joe and me, or if you want to hang out with other Oddh Lots listeners, you should definitely save the date for your calendar. It's going to be at Wilton's Music hall in east London again on Thursday, May 7, doors opening at 6pm and

[Joe Weisenthal]

the key thing is you know, every time we do a live show and they sell out, people complain like, oh, I didn't see the link. I wish I would have bought them sooner. We're going to be putting the link in the Odd Lots news. So go find the Odd Lots newsletter, just search for it, subscribe to it, and the link will be there before it's anywhere else. So this is your chance. Plus, if you like Odd Lots, if you're listening to the podcast, you probably really like the newsletter. You should really subscribe. Anyway, so if you like the podcast and so forth, subscribe to the newsletter, get the newsletter and get first crack at tickets.

[Tracy Alloway]

Hope to see you there.

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Tracy Alloway]

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe, sometimes, sometimes I go on prediction markets.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

And I see some of the contracts being traded and, you know, we hear the argument all the time that there might be a real economic reason why prediction markets should exist. So maybe, you know, maybe you run a studio in Hollywood and so like, it's actually really important who will be in the next cast of whatever Avengers movie is coming out. But I have a hard time thinking that betting on whether or not Jesus Christ is going to return to the world and is economically important. Right?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah. No, I think this is a great point. I mean, I think you're being generous actually with the Avengers thing. I mean, maybe you could stretch, but you know, for example, there is a market and it's actually, you can track it on the Bloomberg that says on Kelshi, will there be a recession before 2027? And that is at 33% right now. And that is something that, like, that's amazing in a sense that there is an instrument where you could bet on this very important question to investors and, and express it very purely in a way that if you were using other instruments like stocks or bonds, you'd only be using a proxy for it. But the. So the potential there in my mind for some of these things is obviously quite high.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, you could say, certainly in our current economic environment, being able to bet on things like is the US Going to strike Carg Island? Or something like that could be actually useful if you are a large institutional investor versus just betting on the price of oil or the direction of stocks.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Exactly.

[Tracy Alloway]

Or something like that. However, I have a hard time thinking that institutional investors are going to flock to a platform that contains questions that are both, is there going to be a recession? And also some completely out there, pop

[Joe Weisenthal]

culture kind of contract totally or you know, obviously beyond the pop culture, they're dominated by sports betting and so forth. So that's another question. Also, you know, the marketing tactics used by the major prediction market companies are very different than anything. Pretty different than anything we see in traditional futures, etc. So I think we both, yeah, like I do on a fully think that like there could be legitimate use cases where there are natural hedgers, natural liquidity providers for some of these, like swaps, some of these pure binary instruments, et cetera. But there are some pretty big chicken and egg problems and other things to like actually get there where there's volume, you know, for example, some of the weather related ones.

[Tracy Alloway]

Absolutely.

[Joe Weisenthal]

They're great. No one's betting. You know, there's like $20,000 on some of them. That's beneath any order of magnitude of usefulness to any economic or real speculative actor.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's right. No hedge fund gets out of bed for less than 20,000. Okay. So I do in fact have the perfect guest to discuss all of this. Someone who is trying to solve that chicken and egg problem and actually create a prediction market that is more geared towards institutional investors. And we are going to be speaking with Tomas Petterfi. He is of course the founder and chairman of Interactive Broke. Someone who's not just interesting from a prediction market perspective, by the way, but someone who has been incredibly influential in the development of markets globally. Absolutely. So we're going to get into the overall, you know, market structure, AI, all that good stuff. But we'll start with prediction markets. So, Tomas, thank you so much for coming on Oddlauts.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Thank you very much for having me.

[Tracy Alloway]

So when you think about prediction markets for institutional investors, in your mind, what is the actual differentiating factor between a retail investor who maybe is playing around a little bit on something like Kalshi or Polymarket, versus someone with a lot of money who might be interested in trading in size.

[Tomas Petterfi]

So from that point of view, the prediction market is no different than the stock market accepted addresses, much larger and more important on the one hand, on the other hand, much sillier and less important questions. So it all depends on what you ask. So the stock market has Microsoft and Nvidia and also has, you know, the Gamestop and other silly stocks. Right. So it is a parallel situation. So you cannot blame prediction market, the mechanism itself, for the silly things that some platforms list. Right. The idea here is to deal with questions, to gather the consensus opinion of people who are preferably experts or are deep thinkers on the questions that we're going to ask and to gather their consensus so that we can all include that in our decision making and planning for the future.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That was excellent. And first of all, I think that's a great point, obviously that the stock market contains both Microsoft and Nvidia and it also includes GameStop.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah, but this is also a recent development.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

Like when GameStop happened, we were all sort of in shock that people were treating a stock as a token.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, that's true. You know, I paid for port of college trading, penny stocks, et cetera. So I know that. And if you go back to, you

[Tracy Alloway]

know, penny stocks are the original production

[Joe Weisenthal]

markets, go back to the Jesse Livermore era of true bucket shops and it was like pretty messy, et cetera. So from your perspective right now, if we're talking about prediction markets in the U.S. you know, it's really heavily sports betting, then there's some election stuff and, and then there's some silly things, et cetera. First of all, let's zoom out for the big question. Do you think that eventually institutional investors will use prediction market like instruments to trade things like will there be a recession in the year 2026? Do you expect these to become big volume contracts at some point?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Definitely, I'm absolutely convinced. So the stock market gives us a venue to invest in the future, basically in the future of different companies. But you know, some of how those companies are actually going to end up faring in the future has a lot to do with the economic environment and social environment in the future. And basically we are left to our own devices to decipher what the future holds. So the prediction markets gives them an opportunity to gather experts around who are not afraid to put their money on the line and express what they think and to collect a consensus opinion so that we all know what we can possibly expect. It's probably a better guess than what we individually could come up with.

[Tracy Alloway]

So a lot of the prediction markets, one of the problems that they currently have is that volumes are still pretty low. Right. The markets are very illiquid. When you talk to institutional investors, you know, people you would like to be clients on your platform, which is called Forecast Trader, by the way. What are the big hurdles for them? Like what are they, what's stopping them from going all in on prediction markets at the moment?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, at this point just, it's very similar to any other market when it starts, liquidity is always a big question and it takes a long time to gather sufficient liquidity. If you look at, for example the options markets that have been around now for 54 years, I think initially there was very little liquidity and it was very difficult to trade more than say 20 or 30 contracts at a time. Nowadays you can trade thousands or maybe millions of contracts. So it has developed over the past five decades really well and the stock market is basically similar.

[Joe Weisenthal]

What unlocked the liquidity? Was there a market design choice? Like if you go back and you're thinking about, okay, the history of the options market, et cetera, was it just time and existence or were there certain either regulatory or market structure decisions that, that had to be made that truly unlocked the opportunity to take it to the next level volume wise?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Yeah, but I think over time people have become more familiar with the idea of what an option is and it is a fairly complex idea relative to what the prediction markets are. That's why we try to come up with something simpler than options. And as far as that is concerned, I think we have done that. So it is not going to be as complex for people to understand a prediction contract as it is to understand an options contract. So I think that it will not take equally long time to develop sufficient liquidity.

[Tracy Alloway]

So when I go on Forecast Trader right now, I see bets like, you know, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of the second quarter of 2026 or will 2026 be the warmest year on record? Which as we were talking about earlier, these are all things that I would say have economic implications. When you compare what Interactive Brokers is doing versus say a Kalshi or a poly market, is that how you're trying to differentiate yourself with more, you know, quote, serious, economically serious contracts? Is that your edge?

[Tomas Petterfi]

So don't forget that we are very different companies. Interactive Brokers has a large following of serious, successful institutional investors and serious investors who are managing relatively large portfolios. On our platform. Kalshi doesn't have that. So for us, prediction markets are an addendum that enables us to basically run out our offering and our customers have the ability to gauge such questions whether a recession, how likely a recession is going to be. Kalshi has no investors basically other than investors in the prediction markets. So for them it's, first of all, it is hard to maintain yourself only on up until it really takes off. It's hard to generate enough trading volume to make a profit. So they had to add things like sports. And of course that has become their mainstay and they are now very profitable due to sports. So if they didn't do sports, maybe they couldn't even support the platform. I don't know.

[Joe Weisenthal]

But just to be clear, do you get the impression that from the perspective of this broad institutional world that's going to come to prediction markets that one of your edges will be this focus that you're not in sports, that you're not in random pop culture, that this is going to be contracts that have the sort of quote serious investor in mind? Is that part of why this is

[Tomas Petterfi]

by choice we prefer to to focus and concentrate on serious questions having to do with our clients investments. Maybe some of them would like us to have sports, but we just don't want to distract them with that.

[Tracy Alloway]

Say more about that. So how are you actually choosing the contracts that you're presenting as options to investors?

[Tomas Petterfi]

So we are choosing contracts that in our minds have questions, the answers to which have serious economic consequences. So for example, global warming I think is a huge question. Maybe not this year, but 10, 20 years from now it certainly will be. Or the rate of adoption of AI or I mean, you know, really significant questions that that basically will determine how we live our lives 10 to 20 years from now. And therefore it's important for us to have questions for to those answers so that people that enter schools today or decide to buy a house somewhere or decide what profession they are going to study and develop into these sorts of questions deserve to have serious answers so that they can decide what to do.

[Tracy Alloway]

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[Tomas Petterfi]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

brokerage platforms that are retail ish person could access always been like one of the most sophisticated in terms of the wide range of instruments that are available from stocks to bonds to futures, etc. Is this the first time that you have a sort of your own market that you built on the platform rather than IBKR simply being a window or a venue to trade on some other market? Is this new for you in a big way?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Yes. We've never done anything as large as this that is so different than what already existed. But as we were going along building out the platform over the last almost five decades, we certainly have always been on the edge of trying to bring in new things.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Sure. But in terms of like okay, if I trade a share of money Microsoft on ibkr, there are established exchanges that presumably that trade is going to be routed through. Whereas with Forecast Trader you are the market, you're the broker and the venue at the same time. And part of what's novel about prediction markets generally is this thing where the broker and the market venue are fusing in a way that has not been the case historically with, say, CME futures. It's not been the same way with stocks. So from a market structure standpoint, is IBKR in a new position by the fact that it's essentially both the broker and the exchange for these instruments?

[Tomas Petterfi]

You're probably correct in that although the app had in the Past started several indexes and various futures contracts. But indexes and futures contract different ones, but they already existed. Yeah. So the prediction market as such is. Yes, you are correct. It's the first market where nothing has existed like it.

[Tracy Alloway]

Actually, on that note, you know, I alluded to your history in the market's very long history and formative history, but how come we didn't get prediction markets sooner? You know, like we could have been betting on global warming five or 10 years ago. And it doesn't seem until, you know,

[Joe Weisenthal]

I was reading about prediction markets.

[Tomas Petterfi]

We started developing the prediction markets roughly 10 years ago. And the problem was that we had some consultants at the firm that were doing some other work and they found out that we were working on prediction markets and at that time we were trying to go for a banking license. And they said, well, you will never get your banking license if you come up with this prediction market. As a matter of fact, the SEC will not take kindly to it and you will have all kinds of problems if you really do this. So what we did, we already had built the whole system, so what we did was we released it for phantom money and people were playing around on it for phantom money and that eventually petered out because phantom money is not really interesting. But it took hold enough for the people who funded polymarket and Kashi to see it and to play with it. And then they had a better idea and they went forward with it. And you know, Kashi went to Mazur, went to the CFTC and got himself licensed. And I was really upset when I saw that. And then of course, you see, it was easy for him because they had nothing, so they had nothing to lose. You see, the problem is that when you have a flourishing business, it's very hard to do new things because the downside is so big for you. So he went ahead and then I wanted to buy Kalshi, but he wouldn't. They wouldn't entertain a sale and they didn't even give me a price.

[Joe Weisenthal]

What year was that?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Sorry?

[Joe Weisenthal]

What year was that that you were trying to buy?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Oh, I think about five years ago.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Oh, wow.

[Tracy Alloway]

That was going to be my next question. Why didn't you just buy Kalshi at that point?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Are you going to.

[Tomas Petterfi]

So then I went to the CFTC and I asked for my. Our own license and they took three years to work it through and give it to us. But we eventually got it last year.

[Joe Weisenthal]

How big?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Actually we got it in 24, just before the elections. Yeah.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Wait, that's interesting. So I Was just about to ask you, like, was it the election that enabled you to get into it? But it sounds like actually you would have been able to get into the space even without the change in administration.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, look, I mean, we are in a very lucky circumstance where we have a flourishing profitable business so we can support this crazy addiction to develop the prediction markets that is basically a loss leader. And we are very sure that eventually it will be very profitable.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I'm just one other quick market structure ish question. Are you going to provide leverage? How does that work for these instruments for.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, we're working on that right now. Up to now it's been a very easy situation because you see, a broker always has to worry about providing leverage. So most brokerage firms, when they go bust because of the leverage they provide. And if you look at the big Wall street crisis, they all have to do with leverage always.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Tomas Petterfi]

So. But eventually we will have to provide leverage. The question is, how do you structure that? And that is going to be. I'm sure there'll be some firms that will go bust on leverage in prediction markets. Yes.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Hmm.

[Tracy Alloway]

Do you see a world where I guess prediction market prices kind of, kind of become standard reference data, like the same way we look up credit spreads or something like that?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Yes, absolutely. Yeah, certainly. Certainly. You know, right now you're saying is the, say the Fed going to cut rates or not? I mean, yeah, people are consulting economists and say that that's what the consensus opinion is. But it's not as clear as, just look at that, a clean probability that the prediction market provides just one plain number to see what the probability is that.

[Tracy Alloway]

Wait, why is it not as clear? Because I can go to the bond market and back out what the bond market thinks about future Fed moves. And that's a huge market. Why would you need the prediction market to do that?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, no, you can go to the fed funds market, not the bond market. You can go to the fed funds markets. That is true, but that's another interesting thing. So fed funds markets existed for a long time and it only recently that people really consolidate the Fed fund markets when they are wondering about rates and no longer talk to the economists because just two years ago people kept talking about which economy says what, Right?

[Joe Weisenthal]

One day we're never going to have to consult an economist. Economist again. That's like the trader's dream.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's the world prediction markets.

[Tomas Petterfi]

No, I think you see, I think that what will happen is that economists will be begin to participate in the prediction markets and instead of issuing Their predictions, they will trade their own positions and good ones will make a lot of money and bad ones will lose.

[Joe Weisenthal]

But can we be just among the three of us here? No one else is just among the three of us. Just among the three of us here for a second. Like traders, you guys really don't like economists, do you? You do not hold them in particularly high esteem, right? Like, let's be honest, it's just the three of us chatting here.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, for a trader, an economist is very confusing because it depends on which one you talk to. Right? The prediction markets cure that deficiency, right?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah. So right now you could go to Robinhood and you could trade markets on. You could trade Kelshi markets via Robinhood and we had the CEO of Robinhood on Vlad Tenev and they also might be building their own prediction markets venue. Is there ever a scenario in which IBKR both has its own prediction markets but is also a broker that would allow a user I could trade futures via my IBKR account?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Absolutely. So we are coming out at the end of May with a consolidated feed where contracts that exist on several platforms we will have consolidated so that when somebody comes to US interactive brokers to look at the market, we will give them a consolidated feed. Just like we do on stocks, where stocks trade on, I don't know, 20 or so markets. And we always have the best bid and offer and we always provide best executions based on all the possible venues where that stock trades. And we will do the same thing on prediction markets.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That makes a lot of sense, that analogy of like best execution. The one issue that I could see arising, and I'm curious your thoughts, like a share of Microsoft is a share of Microsoft regardless of whatever, however number of exchanges it trades on. A bet on a US Recession could be different depend because then it gets down to contract specifications. And how Kelshi defines when a recession is triggered could be different than how a different platform defines the same thing. So how much of this is going in terms of the future of the industry is going to depend on a certain degree of alignment among platforms.

[Tracy Alloway]

Fungibility?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, fungibility to line across contract specifications. And is there work being done on that?

[Tomas Petterfi]

So fungibility is a great issue and it is in the interest of the market participants to create as much fungibility as possible. So accordingly, we are going to structure our contracts to be identical.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Okay.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Whenever it's possible.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's interesting. Can we go back to making fun of economists for one second? But you made the point that when you're talking to economists, it depends on Whether you're talking to a good one. And part of the whole idea of prediction markets is you incentivize people with good information to express their opinions in exchange for money. Recently there's been the issue of, I don't even want to say insider trading or insider information because I don't know what constitutes insider trading or insider information in the prediction market. But there's been a sense that we've had a few political developments and there have been big trades on prediction markets ahead of some of those. Maybe someone knows something ahead of time and they're betting on it. I don't know if that's wrong per se or illegal per se, but when you talk to institutional clients, how concerned are they about the perception of insider trading on these platforms?

[Tomas Petterfi]

So insider trading has always been an issue. I mean, early on when I started my career, I lost half my initial capital based on insider trade. So I'm extremely familiar with the damage it can cause. But on the other hand, and in spite of that, I'm in favor of not having any rules against insider trading. I would like all the information out there as soon as it's available. Because look, as a society, we're better off knowing as soon as possible anything that is knowable, right? So why do we have to wait? Several. First of all, when you face with a merger or acquisition situation where most of the insider trading is happening, right, the secretaries, the lawyers, everybody knows about it, they go home, they tell their wives, their husbands, so it eventually always filters out. So it's almost impossible to avoid. It's very, very difficult and cumbersome. Why don't we just do away with it and let the information come out as soon as possible.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So just to be clear, when you say this, you're talking about all markets here, not just predictions. Okay? So even in the cyber, the counter counter argument. I can think of a couple.

[Tracy Alloway]

There are many. Yeah.

[Joe Weisenthal]

But one counter argument would be liquid capital markets are a very good thing for the economy. And why would I ever want to participate in a capital market if it's known that there are going to be sharks etc that are just like have such an information edge that I could never win. And so yes, I.

[Tomas Petterfi]

But you see, there are sharks right now. But if insider information just came out as soon as possible, there would be very little opportunity for the sharks to be around because you could be a shark for a second or two, but that's it. Nowadays sharks can be around for weeks and months.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Another argument would be that from a corporate perspective, I don't want all my secrets to be monetizable so easily. So like I want to be able to share information with a group of people inside and not have to worry.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Then protect them yourself. Don't rely on, on national laws to, to protect you. I mean, protect them yourself.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I'll just stop talking to them.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah. Wait, I want to hear more about. You mentioned that you lost a bunch of money. Yeah, Tell us that story from insider trading. What's that? Yeah, what's that about?

[Tomas Petterfi]

So when I bought my seat on the American Stock Exchange as an Options Trader in 1977, and I had $200,000 of saved capital that I started my option trading business with on the floor of the American Stock Exchange. And maybe a year or so later I was standing in DuPont. And in those days options were trading in 16s and 8s and it was a day before expiration. And there was a very cheap out of the money call that was to be expired the next day. And somebody came in and according to my fair value sheets that I only I had in those days because I had my own options formula and I generated the sheets for myself. That option was worth about 25, $26. And somebody came in and offered it at 3H, which is $18 offered to me, 300 of those options at $18. And I bought all 300, which was at that time the biggest trade I've ever done. And just as the broker walks out, another broker walks in and he says, where can I buy 500 of these? And nobody said anything. Everybody was stunned. And I said, three, eight. And he said, okay, how many? And I said 500. I was so overwhelmed by the amount of profit I was suddenly making in a five minute period of time that I gave up all caution and I sold him the 500. So I was as a result, 200 short. And then in the next several minutes, the stock halted trading. And half an hour later it reopened with the news that dupont had a fantastic quarter and they were splitting the stock 32341. And it opened way, way up. So the option I sold 200 of net for 3, 8 opened at 4 and a half dollars.

[Tracy Alloway]

I can see why you would be traumatized by insider trading.

[Tomas Petterfi]

And yet I was really traumatized. I lost $90,000 and it was horrible. But I still say to you that I think the best thing we could do about Inside Information is just to get the news out there as fast as possible and forget about persecuting people.

[Tracy Alloway]

I love that idea. Also that you had your own fair value sheets. Which I presume those were sheets that were actually written down at that time in your pocket.

[Tomas Petterfi]

They were computer generated. I had a computer at home and I had developed my own option formula much earlier in, in 1970.

[Tracy Alloway]

And you were carrying them around on pieces of paper on the floor?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Yeah, I had folded up in all my pockets.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay, so. So on this note, I mean you were one of the earliest people to automate market making. That's what you're famous for. And you've been through the whole transition from humans actually trading on the floor to everything being automated nowadays. Obviously AI is the same huge thing in the market and in our lives right now. When you look at AI and compare it to the early days of electronic trading, what's similar and what feels different to you now? Is this just another technological improvement, another wave of productivity enhancing tech, or is this something fundamentally new in your mind?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, it's a huge leap in technological developments, but it's basically as a computer programmer, I look at it basically as a new higher level language that is much, much, much, much more powerful than anything that came before. But qualitatively is not different than the way we went from machine language to assembler language to FORTRAN and COBOL and eventually C and all the other languages. So this is a natural language. So AI is basically a higher level language which is a natural language. And it also has to it available all the data that exists in the world. So that's why it is so immensely powerful. But as far as trading is concerned, basically automated trading has existed for a long time. We have started our first automated trading systems in 1983 and continued developing that ever since. And then eventually when other traders came in and bought out the order flow from brokerage firms, we didn't think that we should do that. So then we ran out of the market making business. But up to that point, we were the largest market makers in the world.

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[Tracy Alloway]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

I have so many questions. Actually, can we just go back real quickly to the options pricing model that you have here? It's funny, this is the second time in a few weeks someone was telling me about an I've been in a conversation about options trading in the early days. What were you programming that in? What language? And was it the kind of thing where like you're you would leave the Computers running overnight and then you like come back in the morning and after. Nah, because that tell us about like the technology that enabled you to determine fair market value of options back then.

[Tomas Petterfi]

So I had an Olivetti computer at home, a desktop Olivetti desktop computer at home. And when I started to think about options, I started to run a lot of simulations and see at what prices I would break even. And then eventually there was the idea of probability distribution curve based on which I would determine the prices of options, that after selling to myself many options, I would break even at which price. And that's how I determined what the correct value for an option is. And that eventually that turned into a formula and code. So I used that computer. And if you go to interactive brokers today, there is something we call Probability Lab where we can display, where we do display the probability distribution associated with the future price changes of any stock that we derive from the existing option prices. So you can see that there and you can basically learn about options very well.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I never saw this page before, but this makes a lot of sense to me and I've always been a little bit surprised that you don't hear more about translating option math into sort of normal intuitive odds because it seems like a very normal thing. One other question, you know you mentioned AI as being like a new, the next iteration, maybe the last iteration, because it's natural language of computer programming. But most computer programming is like, it's deterministic, right. So if you write a line of code, it will do the same thing every single time there's some rule and it'll always be the same. You put in the same query into ChatGPT, you will not always get the same output output, in fact, frequently you won't. Even with the exact same query of anything. When you're thinking about applications of AI within finance, etc, does the non deterministic

[Tomas Petterfi]

element of AI models change probabilistic language? Right. That's why it is not always the same. It's probabilistic, it's not deterministic.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Right. Does that have implications for its use in finance?

[Tomas Petterfi]

Well, option prices are probabilistic. Prediction markets are probabilistic. That's what my initial impetus was for prediction markets to teach people probabilities because people tend to not think probabilistically. They tend to think, well, either this will happen or will not happen. And that somebody knows. And that's not how it is. There is a. There is a probability for something to happen and nobody knows what. Really happy, right?

[Tracy Alloway]

Do you know how to Code in cobol.

[Tomas Petterfi]

In cobol. I can. Well, I cannot, but I can code in Fortran or fourth or Basic or C. Number of languages.

[Tracy Alloway]

You know, you could be making a lot of money fixing old mainframe systems and integrating them. Have you considered doing that?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, just going back sort of full circle to, to the prediction markets. I basically. You know, you're probably right. One day they'll be big. What's the time frame? What do you have, like a testable theory? Can you give us a number for how big you think they'll be? You know, we don't want to treat you like some economist who just makes a forecast that could never be tested or whatever. We want something hard. So, like, can you give us like, you know, end of 2027, do you have like, or end of 2026, how big will they be so that we could come back and we could say, was Tomas correct about how big this space is going to be or not?

[Tomas Petterfi]

I don't think there is a good way to. I mean, I'm always stunned when I read these projections from consulting firms about how big something will be so many years ahead of time. I have no idea how to evaluate that. But all I know is that it's going to be very, very big because it's extremely useful and it's a very simple way for all of us to direct our decision making prediction market and to hedge our decision making.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I was just, I was just going to say, Tracy, I noticed one of the contracts that they have on IBKR is will UCLA is out of state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026. As someone who has children who like in the next decade are going to go to college, like, this could be a very useful thing for me to hedge at some point. Like, my daughter heard that there's a good theater school, ucla. She said, I heard there's a good theater school at University of Michigan. And so I have to start thinking about like University of Michigan, out of state tuition.

[Tracy Alloway]

Kids these days are very focused, but

[Joe Weisenthal]

this could be a very useful instrument for me.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Absolutely. College tuitions, we were thinking about listing them at one point.

[Tracy Alloway]

Can I ask a conceptual question which is like, if prediction markets really take off and we have more and more money that is being placed on whether or not the actual event itself happens, what does that mean for capital markets? Because I think about capital markets, you know, everyone in finance for years and years and years said this is about the efficient allocation of capital into productive industry and one way of betting on the future of the US economy would be by buying US equities and that money goes into companies and it creates jobs and a feedback loop and all of that. If I'm just betting on the actual outcome, what does it mean for actually funding economic activity?

[Tomas Petterfi]

So the money you put at risk, but the money is not laying around, the broker will take that money and put it into treasury bills. Right. So as you know, there is an awful lot of money that is in treasury bills and that's financing our deficit. And so that's where your money will be employed.

[Joe Weisenthal]

From a regulatory standpoint, is there anything right now that you think the CFTC could or should be doing to further along this market?

[Tomas Petterfi]

No, I think the big regulatory problem is that there are many questions concerning specific companies that we would love to ask, but we do not know if the question would be a security or a commodity and do not know who should properly regulate it and therefore we don't ask these questions. But it would be extremely useful for us to be able to ask about the future developments of Nvidia or Microsoft or Google or.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So this could be like contracts either related to will they beat or miss their earnings estimates. It could be contracts related to when

[Tomas Petterfi]

will they, the number of employees they will have or the average salary they will have or etc. But the problem is that the price of Google is a security. We know that the price of the shares are securities. So the legislation says that anything that has an impact on the stock price would be on the financial statement, would be a security. So there's a lot of stuff that has an impact on the financial statement, but nobody is listing it in any way. So this quagmire would have to be cleaned up and then we would have a much better market.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It sounds like we need to merge the SEC and the cftc.

[Tomas Petterfi]

That would be great.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right, Tomas Petterfit, thank you so much for coming on Odd lots. Really appreciate it.

[Tomas Petterfi]

Thank you very much,

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe. That was an interesting conversation.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That was great. I was not expecting Tomas to be. I don't, you know, maybe I should have. But it's interesting to hear him completely just say, let's get rid of insider trading laws.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah. Clearly that was a formative experience for him and perhaps he wants to be on the side of the. The people that made money in that transaction rather than the people that lost out. The other thing I thought was really interesting was the history with Kalshee.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah. Which I hadn't appreciated. Yeah. I think this is going to be like such an interesting space. It's a Weird industry, I think, prediction markets, because it's an industry that basically is two companies right now, which barely counts as an industry. But we know from having talked to Vlad at Robinhood, they're going to like, build their own. And then now obviously IBKR is, you know, has its own. There's a few interesting questions, but one is like, where is the value going to accrue? Is it going to be like the venue where the trading is?

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Is it going to be who has the distribution? Because obviously Robin Hood and IBKR have incredible distribution via the fact that lots of people do other trading on there. It still feels like very much a jump ball in terms of who makes the money in this.

[Tracy Alloway]

Totally. Well, the other thing that was interesting was the idea of creating standardized contracts.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

You know, something more fungible. And then I wonder, well, if you do that, do you have to create like an ISDA type body that's going to adjudicate on these things?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Right. Yeah, no, that's. That's going to be like a huge question. My gut is that Tomas is right. Like, if he is saying these are going to be a really big thing and he's like, traders are going to want to have these instruments. Who am I to disagree? Like, I maybe, like, they won't be big for like random pop culture stuff, but are they going to be big for, like, recession things and stuff like that? If Tomas thinks so, then I think so. That's where I stand.

[Tracy Alloway]

It does feel like the steady march of progress is sort of in this direction. But progress, progress in air quotes, it feels inevitable. But also, I mean, it's hard not to. He mentioned GameStop and it's hard not to think back to just, you know, what, five years ago now, when GameStop happened, it was such a big story precisely because it was such a departure from the way people had treated stock markets previously.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, but you know what? I agree completely. But I had a thought, actually, when he said that, which is for a long time. And there's the famous quote, equities in Dallas. And it's like there was a period not that long ago in American financial history where stocks themselves were not regarded as a particularly important market in and of themselves. Otherwise they wouldn't have talked about how the stock traders would have had to move out to Dallas. That's a phrase. Because the perception was that stocks weren't where the action is. And so it occurs to me, like, yes, when GameStop came out, that it's like everyone was like clutching their pearls and scandalized that the market included. It was like, oh, people are treating

[Tracy Alloway]

it like you can call me a grandma. No, I know that's where you're going.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Seriously. Like everyone was. But, like, when you actually think about the big sweep of, like, stock market history in the United States, you know, maybe we shouldn't hold it up on such a pedestal. There's always been penny stocks. There's always been the pink sheets, the bucket shops or whatever they called were there for a very long time. There was the curb market where people were just trading, like, maybe the era in which the stock market is like this very serious thing. And like, maybe that was. Maybe that's kind of the exception is

[Tracy Alloway]

the theme of this conversation. Just give up, basically.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I'm just saying, like, I'm just saying, like, maybe, maybe there's something to this idea. It's always. All these markets have been a little bit of. There's been a. There's been a. I don't know. What word are you going to use? I don't know. Not seedy, but all entertain. I don't know.

[Tracy Alloway]

Embrace the seediness.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, something like that. Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay, on that note, shall we leave it there?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let's leave it there.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right. This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at thestalworld. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez, Carmen Arman, Dashiell Bennett at dashbot. And Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlots we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about all these topics 24. Seven in our Discord, Discord, GG Oddlots.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about prediction markets, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if. If you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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