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Joe Weisenthal
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Joe Weisenthal
Now on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Wiesenthal.
Tracy Alloway
And I'm Tracy Allow.
Joe Weisenthal
You know, not a novel observation here, but I do think that if like in early 2022 or late 2021, you had someone had revealed to you all of the amazing things that we could do with AI these days. I think you would have expected that either the broader economy or society would be more different than it has been like by and large, you know, I think most people's jobs are done roughly the same way, sort of society still seems to operate, although maybe a little bit worse every day. I don't know. But like, I just don't think, like it's sort of mind blowing technology and yet by and large like it hasn't had the economic disruption that I think many people would have guessed.
Tracy Alloway
Maybe I'm cynical on the subject, but I always say never underestimate the human capacity for stasis, I guess, and making things much more difficult than they actually need to be and putting up, you know, bureaucratic barriers, regulatory barriers and things like that. So it's not, it's not that surprising to me. But it is true. You have a lot of economists out there who think there was going to be this massive productivity boost, right?
Joe Weisenthal
Well, it's certainly tech people, like, I don't know, like economists, you know, they're.
Tracy Alloway
Like, oh, there were some, we're going.
Joe Weisenthal
To have a productivity boom, we're raising our estimates from 2% to 2 and a quarter percent. And then you have everything's relative. And then, you know, we talked to Cathie Wood one time and I think she, what did she predict? 20% real GDP growth for 20 years or you certainly have these people in Silicon Valley. Deflationary boom, post scarcity, any, any minute right now. Some real gaps, I would say, between how a lot of economists think about some of these things and the numbers that an economist would be comfortable using versus maybe literally everyone else.
Tracy Alloway
Cathie Wood, certainly many others.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tracy Alloway
You know what I think about is how different would your career and my career have been had AI existed in like 2008, 2006 when we were starting to blog basically.
Joe Weisenthal
It's a really good question and I don't know the answer because part of me thinks, well, that whole path that was defined, my career would not have been there, would not have existed or no, maybe. But on the other hand, maybe in 2006 I would have been just like, I was super early into blogging, super early into experimenting with AI news and it would look different, but maybe I would have wrote some different.
Tracy Alloway
Different, but the same.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, different but the same. You know, like, I think it's, it's pretty hard to tell.
Tracy Alloway
One thing I know is like back then we were writing to optimize Google results, right? That was basically, or you know, like, I know social media was disseminating stuff as well, but like Google was still main, the main platform for a lot of stuff. I'm sure if we were doing it now, we would be optimizing for ChatGPT or perplexity or someone like that to actually pick up the content.
Joe Weisenthal
I mean, I think that's the audience. Yeah, it is. And I think like any, especially any like commercial publisher, right, that's trying to do at scale. I think like a sort of niche voice expert could still have like their audience that comes to them directly, of course, but like it's scale at scale for sure. Every publisher is trying to figure this out. Anyway, we really do have the perfect guest. Someone we should have had on the podcast years and years ago. It's almost surprising that it's this the first time we've had him on.
Tracy Alloway
It is crazy.
Joe Weisenthal
It is crazy, but it is someone who I think is like at the intersection of everything that we're talking about. Because he's an economist. He knows the tech really well. The tech people know him, the tech people love him. He may even be one of the preferred economists for this. I feel he's like the economist that all the people in the AI world want to get his. Take a long time blogger. Someone I, you know, like both of us sort of gave up on like blogging. Although we have our newsletter that's like close enough. But it's different than blogging. Someone who stuck with the medium for a long time. One of the true original econ bloggers that I've been reading for over 20 years. We're going to be speaking with Tyler Cowan. He is the host of the Conversations with Tyler podcast. He also obviously is one of the two bloggers at the famous Marginal Revolution blog. Economics professor at GMU, appreciator of ethnic foods all around the D.C. northern Virginia, Maryland area. Someone known on the Internet for a long time. Tyler, thank you so much for coming on. Odd lot. Really thrilled to have you here.
Tyler Cowen
Hello. Happy to be here.
Joe Weisenthal
Amazing. What do you think about my initial assessment? How fair do you think it is that like, had you known in 2021 how powerful these tools would be, maybe we'd be a bit surprised that by and large, like business seems to more or less run the same.
Tyler Cowen
I'm not surprised at all. So what I see right now is people using AI as an add on for their preexisting work routines. Oh, you need to write a memo, you ask AI how to do it, you need to write a column, you ask AI to proofread it or fact check it. And that works great. But those are marginal gains. What we really need to see a major impact is new organizations built around AI. And those will be startups. They will come only slowly. It will take 20 or more years before they really transform the economy. And in the meantime, it's a whole bunch of add ons which are fun and fine, but that's why I think it's slow.
Joe Weisenthal
What can you tell us about the history of technology such that legacy organizations that existed prior to the invention of, and maybe potentially revolutionary new technology have a hard time massively changing their workflows?
Tyler Cowen
Well, you can take even very simple examples. So Toyota starts competing with General motors in the 1970s. General Motors is paralyzed. It cannot really come back and adopt the new and superior Toyota methods. And those are not really that different compared to, say, AI. So there's just plenty, plenty examples. Old mainstream media could not cope very well with the Internet. There are exceptions like the New York Times, Odd lots. Podcast would be another.
Tracy Alloway
Thank you.
Tyler Cowen
But it's the norm, so we're seeing it again with AI. And again you need a complete turnover of who and what is doing business for it to really matter on a big scale.
Tracy Alloway
If you need that complete turnover and you need some time for AI to become fully embedded in a business model or for a business model to form around AI, what industry or what part of the economy would you expect it, I guess, to show up first in that sort of revolutionary way?
Tyler Cowen
Well, we have obvious data on this and it's programming. You will hear people who do programming claim that say 80% of the work is now done by AIs. I suspect that's an overstatement, but there's no doubt at all that there's simply a lot of programming already done by AIs. When you have low fixed costs, a competitive sector, immediate feedback, you know, the revenue has to flow. Programming and also New York City finance. There's been quants in finance for a long time. Those quants are now, you could say, more AI equipped than they used to be. And those areas already are being revolutionized, I've heard.
Joe Weisenthal
And we got some pitches to do episodes which we should do at some point. But I've heard about like some law firms that are being like, like new AI law firms where there are lawyers, etc. But from the very ground up. The idea is perhaps there is some way to just get way more productivity. If they start from the very beginning with some combination of lawyers plus AI models, it seems like that could be the kind of thing where maybe the legacy law firms are seeing some productivity gains from AI. There's probably some evidence you can find, but that a very new one with a totally different approach could deliver that, that big productivity boost that actually ends up changing the industry.
Tyler Cowen
It's already the case. Say, mid tier associates are much less needed. But there's one big problem with law in particular, and that is the way large language models work. Now you have to send your queries somewhere else. You can't just own and control and hold the whole thing on your hard drive. Now I think within a few years time that will be very different. But until then, major law firms are extremely skittish about just typing in their questions and sending it, you know, to San Francisco. I don't actually think there's a risk, but when you think about how fiduciary responsibility works, they just don't want to do it.
Joe Weisenthal
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Tyler Cowen
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Tracy Alloway
Talk more about, I guess, privacy concerns and regulation because this seems to be an area where if you are in a heavily regulated industry or if you're just in an industry that tends to be full of paranoid people like lawyers, it does seem like there's going to be a natural tendency to be very, very cautious when it comes to sharing data. With AI, you're going to be worried about actual data ownership. The Queries that you're sending to San Francisco, as you say, are those industries just inevitably going to be slow to adapt?
Tyler Cowen
They'll be slow to adapt again until the point where they just control their own model and they hold it within the firm and no one else really can get at it. So what you need is cheaper models where a law firm can afford to have its own model. And I think that's a few years away. It's not a very long time away, but it won't come in six months. Sam Altman, I just did a podcast with him and he said a privacy problem is AI queries are subject to subpoena and he thinks they should have as much protection as, say, your conversation with your lawyer or your doctor or your therapist. I think that's a good idea. But that hasn't happened yet. And until it happens, or you get the whole thing on your own hard drive, progress in law is going to be slow. But once the progress comes, that's one of the areas where I think AI has the most promise. It's just very, very good at mastering a large corpus of text and organizing it for you.
Joe Weisenthal
It is interesting, isn't it, where it's like, okay, if you were my lawyer, you and I could have a conversation and it would be not. It would not be.
Tracy Alloway
It'd be privileged.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, it would be privileged. Or you know, one can have conversations with anyone and as long as you're doing it on the phone or if you're doing it person to person, it's much more difficult to get that, you know, in discovery or I always think about this with, you know, public, public records of employees that sometimes you can get emails through FOIAs, etc. But you can't get the convers content of conversations. It does feel, I hadn't really thought about this dynamic though, that when you're using an AI, it is sort of like a conversation and yet sort of from an evidentiary basis, it would be much more like an email.
Tyler Cowen
I think when it comes to medical issues, there are many more people willing to share their data. Not everyone by any means. Some medical conditions are secret or people just don't want others to know. But I see many, many people I know typing in all kinds of things about their medical history to say, GPT5 and getting what are on the whole, very good answers. It's like medical diagnosis for free, spreading now to the whole world, a lot of countries where people just don't even have access to good doctors at all. And I think that will be Important more quickly than the law innovations.
Tracy Alloway
Just as a thought experiment, what does all of this mean for insurers? Because I kind of think, you know, I think about a bunch of people typing in their medical information. I think about basically the explosion in data that we have nowadays. And it seems like the insurance industry would be one place that would really benefit from all this trove of additional information if they could access it.
Tyler Cowen
Well, this is one of my worries about AI in general. I'm quite positive on what's happening. But as insurers get better and better information on their customers, this is just through big data more generally. It doesn't have to be current large language models. They know exactly how to write the risk and how to price the premium. And in a sense for the buyer, it's not insurance anymore. If we know your house is going to burn down with high probability and you have to pay the super high premium, you don't really have the benefits of the insurance. So some insurance markets might unravel if through big data the insurers learn too much about what's likely to happen.
Joe Weisenthal
Economists seem to be very consistent about the effects of technology on labor demand, which is that in the end it washes out, right? Some people, okay, there's disruption, but I'm going to save money because I used AI, but that means I have more spending power and then I'm going to buy something else that I wouldn't have bought had it not been for paying wages. And then that'll create demand for labor elsewhere. And so in the end, the idea that you could really have tech driven unemployment at scale that is not transitory or not temporary is hard. A lot of economists seem to be intuitively skeptical of this idea. Whereas you have people in the AI field, 50% of the people aren't going to have jobs. We need ubi, otherwise there's going to be a permanent underclass. Could there be something different about AI such that it doesn't have the same labor market effects that past technologies have had?
Tyler Cowen
I would say you understand me well. So the energy sector, there's going to be a lot of new jobs taking care of older people. I think as AI produces more potential medical innovations, we'll need to test them. So the biomedical sector, testing, clinical trials, there'll be a lot new jobs. I'm not worried about mass unemployment and most economists are not. And I agree with their perspectives, which I think you outlined pretty clearly.
Joe Weisenthal
What do you say though? Because I have a feeling that when you're out in San Francisco, they don't see it that way. And they talk a lot and some of them are more in UBI talk and permanent underclass talk and all of this stuff. Do they see your perspective when you make this case? What do they say or what are a lot of them seem to be missing about the logic that you spell out?
Tyler Cowen
Well, I think more and more they're coming around to the economist's point of view. So Andrej Karpathy, who was at OpenAI in the most important years, he just did a podcast saying he thinks adjustment will be slow, things will be fine, we'll grow at 2 point something percent. There won't be mass unemployment and you wouldn't have heard that say two years ago. But I think as people see the models rolling out and as you mentioned, well, the real world impact, it is stretched out in time, right. It's not all immediate. Earlier on people had more the sense that AI was a kind of God box, that you just talk to it and it can magically do anything and convert that into results in the real world. But if you think about your actual job, even if it's a highly intellectual job, so much of what you do is the interaction between your intellect, your physical presence, your interactions with others, your travel, many other things. And until we get to some far, far off world where the robots are perfect copies of you, which I don't think ever will come, jobs will be fine, but they will change a lot. And I'm actually worried about who will be the biggest losers. I think poor people will do great, the very wealthy will do well, but people who are sort of upper upper middle class will find this automatic ticket to a law or consulting job that assured they would be upper upper middle class for the rest of their lives, I think a lot of that is going away already.
Tracy Alloway
I think also no one would have expected plastic surgery, I guess, to be a beneficiary of the AI revolution. But if you think that what's going to matter in the future is like your personal presence.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, that's right.
Tracy Alloway
And your network of social contacts, then I guess we should all be working on looks. Maxing on our on looks. Maxing. Absolutely right.
Tyler Cowen
Charisma.
Tracy Alloway
Charisma. Okay, noted. Everyone work on their respective charisma. One thing I was wondering is the impact of AI on public finances. I am not very good at tax policy. Joe knows this because I've complained about taxes to him repeatedly. But I'm thinking maybe that means you're really good at. But if you're thinking about where the value add of AI actually shows up in the economy. So, you know, presumably you got a productivity boost. We're not entirely sure how much that's going to be. But where does that additional output actually show, show up in terms of revenue for governments? How is that collected? And how would you expect the distribution to vary across the world?
Tyler Cowen
Well, I think in the United States, medium term, there'll just be much, much more healthcare. There'll be new drugs, new medical devices. We'll have to test all these things, we'll have to produce them, and that will be. It was already the case that those sectors were growing, but that growth will be accelerated. So that's where I think there'll be the biggest difference longer term. And people will live longer because we'll fix, at least partially, various diseases and maladies. So if you live to be 94 across a lifetime, you spend way more on healthcare than if you live to be 77. And that's yet further growth for the healthcare sector. But some things, like medical diagnosis that's already very cheap, like, you know, a good large language model probably outperforms your current doctor, at least if you type in what's wrong with you properly.
Tracy Alloway
But does that additional productivity or the output generated by AI, does that actually show up in additional taxation for the government?
Tyler Cowen
Well, the health care sector generates an enormous amount of taxation revenue. I do think we'll have some sectors that maybe just become free in the same way that Wikipedia is free. So I could imagine, say 10 or 20% of the music sector is music you create at home using your own AI, and it's a customized song for you, and maybe you paid a subscription for the service. But rather than, you know, spending more money on Spotify or a streaming service, you just build the music and that's a partial substitute for some human created music. I don't think human created music will go away at all. People want to enjoy the human touch, the feeling that you're a fan of Taylor Swift or whatever. But there's going to be a lot of AI generated music and art and many other areas, and some of it will be free. But that's not a problem from a revenue standpoint. So instead of spending money on, say, buying a picture, you create one digitally at home with your AI, you'll spend that money on something else.
Tracy Alloway
I got to ask now, are you a Swiftie?
Tyler Cowen
No, it's boring for me. It's a little too predictable. So I have to say I'm not. But I'm glad other people are. Let's put it that way.
Joe Weisenthal
Do you have a theory? Actually, let's talk. Let's just talk about music. Do you have like a theory of the Swift phenomenon? Like, is there a reason? What is it? Because it's just so. It doesn't. I don't know. What's your. What's your meta take on the Taylor, the Swifties and culture and society?
Tyler Cowen
Well, it's super polished. And because of the Internet, the very biggest of celebrities can be much bigger than before and someone will fill a few of those slots. But I think also how she presents herself. She has the guise of being attractive without feeling threatening to other women. And there's something all American about her and quite generic. She doesn't rule out the fandom of that many people.
Joe Weisenthal
Mm.
Tyler Cowen
And she's the one who's filled that slot. She's been brilliant at managing her career and seems to just stick at it and has an incredible work ethic. People say the shows are incredible. As more and more life goes online, who can give a good show? It's the charisma and looks point. Well, she seems a plus at that. I've never been to one, but I hear plenty of reports. And you put all that together and she's, you know, the megastar of the music world.
Joe Weisenthal
Do you think like culture, like there's this popular idea that culture is sort of dead. And I do think that is probably overstated. But, you know, you look at movies and people have. People have observed this for a long time. It's just rehashes of franchises that have been around for 30 years. And I think if you look at Spotify streaming, there's still this overwhelming tyranny of the boomer rock, et cetera. And this feeling that culture in many respects is this rehashed, that it's very hard for new things to break out. I mean, Taylor Swift at this point is a decades old phenomenon. Is that real in your view or is that just people in the pundit class who have been lazy and not discovering new things and not actually putting in the effort because they're not young anymore and they're not going out and they say nobody listens to new music.
Tracy Alloway
Joe, are you just talking about yourself?
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, I'm half talking about. I'm doing a little introspection here. Is this just me? Because I don't go to shows like I did when I was 20 or something changed.
Tyler Cowen
But a lot of it is the pundit class. So you look at movies. I think it's perfectly correct to say the most popular movies today are pretty dreadful. And it used to be the case that the most popular movies were God, the Godfather, in Star Wars. Yeah, that's a big change. But if you look at movie making around the world and in a given year list, say the 25 best movies from all places, which may not even come to your multiplex every year, you have an incredible list. I don't think they're worse than the movies of earlier times. I do think mainstream Hollywood is much worse. So in many areas you just have quality moving more into niches.
Joe Weisenthal
By the way, I just want to say the first time I ever encountered your work prior to even having stumbled across Marginal Revolution was at the bookstore in Austin finding a copy of In Praise of Commercial Culture. And I just feel like that book has held up so well. I mean, in the specific sense that there is so much mass culture these days, whether it's high end Netflix TV shows, etc, whether it's A24 films, whether it's Beyonce or Taylor Swift or some of these other big names who are simultaneously incredibly popular. And I get that you're not a swifty, neither am I anymore. But people take this. Yeah, I, I, I liked her country once she left. Yeah, once she left country. But like where people take these popular culture things extremely seriously as art. And don't dismiss these outputs as sort of being trash.
Tyler Cowen
Right now we're in a golden age for country and western music and also horror movies. Neither is really like my taste in particular, but it's easy to see what has gotten worse and especially for critics, harder to see what has been getting better.
Tracy Alloway
That's my sweet spot. Country and horror is perfect for me. But just on the culture point, I mean, I think the lack of culture argument, the one I hear the most is it's a lack of shared culture. Right. So you do have like some giant monoliths like a Swift or a Beyonce that everyone knows about. And you know, they do have these large audiences, but broadly we're not all experiencing the same media that we used to. Right. Like no one is gathering around the TV to watch the finale of, you know, some show that airs like once a week and has been going on for five years.
Joe Weisenthal
The exception is NFL football, which I don't really get it, but yeah, but it's not cultural.
Tracy Alloway
Sports is outside of my.
Tyler Cowen
And the super bowl is cultural. Right. It's a cultural event. You care about the advertisements. But the biggest of YouTube stars, which again I would say is not personally my thing, but they can have bigger audiences than those older TV shows. Right, Right.
Tracy Alloway
Well, so What I'm getting at is it does feel like nowadays there's an ability, because of tech, to serve up very specific content and, like niche content in streams. And the. The analogy that I like to use is, you know, everyone knows if you download Netflix for the first time, the first movie you watch is incredibly important because whatever you watch, you know, if it's a rom com, you're going to be served up Kate Hudson films for the rest of your life. Right. Like, the algorithm looks at what you're watching and then it serves up that additional content. What does that mean for society, the idea that you have people, you know, basically funneled into smaller and smaller streams in some respect?
Tyler Cowen
Well, a lot of the Netflix algorithm, it just directs you to slop.
Tracy Alloway
True.
Tyler Cowen
A lot of people have always wanted slop. Like, people listen to Muzak way back when it was quite common, or they would just list in the top 40, which in some years was very good, but often was pretty terrible, even in the 1960s. So what you can do today is basically watch not any movie out there, but you have Mubi. You can still buy DVDs and Blu Rays. You have access to more cinema today than you ever have. So people will sort themselves. And I think it's from the point of view of cultural consumption. I don't think there's ever been a better time to be alive than right now.
Joe Weisenthal
I like.
Tyler Cowen
Well, a lot of people abuse that and go for slop. Of course that's sad, but it's hardly.
Joe Weisenthal
New, so changing gears a little bit. Tracy and I write almost every day because we have a daily newsletter that forces us to. And I really like having that because I don't know if I would write every day if I did not have that obligation to deliver something in people's inbox that they pay for as part of their Bloomberg.com subscription. I love writing, but I don't know if I would do it every day if I didn't have this sort of requirement. I might just tweet. How do you. You've been blogging for over 20 years. How do you avoid the temptation to just fire off all your ideas via tweet and actually commit to the blog?
Tyler Cowen
I'm never tempted to do that. I like to think things out.
Joe Weisenthal
I do, too. I just don't.
Tyler Cowen
When I write properly. Yeah, I've actually blogged every single day for over 22 years.
Joe Weisenthal
That's amazing. That's amazing. Most people gave up, and so what's the difference?
Tyler Cowen
I don't feel it requires any discipline for Me, the discipline is not writing, more like I have to restrain myself. So I. I guess I'm just weird. I don't think I have any like, neat little trick or formula. It's one of these niches that you can do now that you couldn't do before. And I found my niche, as have the two of you.
Tracy Alloway
Here's a slightly different question playing on that theme, but going back to the intro. How different do you think your blogging career would have been had chatbots existed, you know, 10 or 20 years ago when you were starting out?
Tyler Cowen
I don't think we know yet. My intuition is that people still want to read human writers simply because they're human. And if the bot is as good as you, most of the world doesn't care. But that has not truly been tested yet. I think we'll see in the next two years. But that's what I'm expecting. Just, I think in music there'll be plenty of AI music. It might be, say, 10 or 20% of the music sector, but listeners will still want that human to human connection.
Joe Weisenthal
Do you think? You know, when, when Twitter came out, they called in our new podcast, Everybody's Business.
Tracy Alloway
We talk about the business news that concerns everybody.
Tyler Cowen
From Bloomberg businessweek, I'm Stacey Vanek Smith.
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Max Chavkin.
Tyler Cowen
Each week we unpack what is happening.
Joe Weisenthal
On Main street and Wall street, all the streets.
Tracy Alloway
WrestleMania has taken over the US economy. Poetry that executives write on LinkedIn. A little actual magic in our underrated.
Joe Weisenthal
Story of the single greatest marketing campaign.
Tyler Cowen
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Tracy Alloway
I decided to ask people how they felt about the penny going away. Listen to Everybody's Business wherever you get your podcasts.
Joe Weisenthal
They called it a microblogging site, as if it were just blogging, but on a shorter basis. But I think it's fundamentally different, you know, and the early. The glory days of blogs, which we'll be talking about forever when we're all very old people, how good it was. You know, I think there was this sort of spirit of, you know, liberal linking with each other and idea exploration, whereas Twitter strikes me as much more conflictual and one ups, one upmanship and so forth. Do you think there are like fundamental. I don't know if political is the right word, but like new communication paradigms, like sort of have their own terroir, so to speak, in terms of the impulse towards collaboration or conflict, etc. And does that change society?
Tyler Cowen
Yeah, I still like blogging and I'm sad people have moved away from it. Twitter, to me it seems too meme heavy. And meme heavy media have more potential for racism, which of course is a big negative. And I see so many people who are driven crazy by being on Twitter, whether it's because they're writing on it or reading it, I'm not sure, maybe both. I don't want to name names, but it's a lot of people and I bet you see the same ones that I do.
Tracy Alloway
Also very sexist nowadays. I would just add in unappreciated ways, many ways. Speaking of sexism, the impact of AI on economics. Talk about that. Economic institutions, you know, famous for modeling and spend a lot of time with numbers and things like that. Is that all just going to be replaced by AI?
Tyler Cowen
Not all. So I think what human economists will do is put more and more time into gathering data and feeding it to the AIs. The returns to doing that will be very high. But the actual econometrics statistics, humans will maybe set up part of the problem, but the hard, boring, routine work will be done by the machines, as to some extent, it was already the case. And this will be a way to make a lot of progress rather quickly.
Tracy Alloway
Do the actual economic statistics or data points that economists collect, do some of those need to be changed or thought of differently in light of the AI era?
Tyler Cowen
Well, I. I don't know. Eventually they will need to be, but I would say any period of radical change in history, your statistics are less useful. It's not that the people creating the statistics are making some mistake. You just cannot capture every way the world is changing. And index number comparisons require the basket of goods be relatively close to constant. And at some point that doesn't hold anymore. And we'll be faced with that. We'll deal with it. I would say the current statistics we have, they're more underrated than overrated. So they're actually pretty good. I'll be glad when we get them back again.
Joe Weisenthal
This is another thing. The tech people you talk to, they must think like, GDP is terrible. It doesn't capture all this stuff, all this value that we can't price. I'm sure you've had conversations explaining to many AI workers that GDP is not the worst statistic in the world. I want to go back though, to. So, you know you mentioned like on Twitter, right? You say something, someone posts a meme, they dunk on you, they make fun of you, they, whatever. Your chatbot won't do that. Like, if I'm having a conversation with ChatGPT, it's never going to respond to me with a meme sort of indicating one day it might, but that I'm a moron.
Tracy Alloway
It'll learn your language, Joe.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, but if anything, it's too obsequious, right? I mean, the issue is like the online world has become this very like sort of competitive, conflictual world. And then I go to the chatbot and my complaint is literally the opposite. It doesn't challenge me enough. It's too obsequious. Every question I ask, it's a great question. Sometimes I wish it would call me a, a little bit more. But what does it change about the world? We know that, like many people's brains have been broken by social media and that probably has downstream effects on how our politics operate these days. What does it do to the world if we started inhabiting these chat environments where they're just very sort of polite and every time you say something it says yes, great thought, Tyler, great thought, Joe, Would you like to expand it? You asked the perfect question. Do you see that having sort of second order effects on how society operates?
Tyler Cowen
Well, that's the 4.0model that does that. The newer models like Claude 4.5 and GPT5, they're more objective and that's better.
Joe Weisenthal
But they never make fun of you, they never will, like say you're a moron. How could you possibly, how could you possibly ask such a dumb question? You are obviously so out of touch for having the ex ask this. This is like a very, in some respects, this is a very positive change from many of the conversations that I've had from typing into a computer.
Tyler Cowen
Oh, it's great. I think people should be nicer to each other and I think they're the most objective media source the human race ever has had. If you ask it about, say, vaccines or conspiracy theories, it basically gives you the right answers.
Tracy Alloway
Well, one thing that they don't do, and I mean I do think they can be trained to be mean to you and to insult you to a certain degree. And you can decide they could be.
Joe Weisenthal
But I never encounter them.
Tyler Cowen
Try harder, more readily on tap. Right.
Tracy Alloway
So we spoke to the business, chief business officer of Perplexity, Dmitry Shevalenko. We spoke to him recently and he was saying that one thing chat models can't do is express a natural curiosity, which I thought was kind of weird coming from him because Perplexity is the only model I know that actually throws out those additional questions. If you query it and then it comes up with, would you like to have more information on this point or Are you thinking about this now? But there does seem to be an element of creativity, perhaps that is lost in some of these LLMs. How much does that change things in media? The idea that, you know, the models are going to spit out something that's sort of predestined in many ways is.
Tyler Cowen
Well, that's what most humans do, to be clear. But it's now the case that on a regular basis, the models, say, can prove new theorems and math or discover new potential drugs. And keep in mind, you know, a year ago these things thought the word strawberry had two R's and now they're winning gold medals and math Olympia. So a year or two from now, maybe we don't know how much better they'll be, but I don't think they're going to have any problems being creative, certainly more creative than humans on average.
Tracy Alloway
So now I have to ask, since we're talking about being mean or nice to the models and them being mean or nice to you, do you say please and thank you in your LLM queries?
Tyler Cowen
You know, I used to. And then Sam Altman said, well, it costs us just a little bit of money because of the extra tokens. And then I thought, I'll hold off on this. But I have this pre existing record of saying please, and it knows that. And then it knows I stopped when Sam said to stop. And I think I'll get points for both of those decisions.
Tracy Alloway
See, I actually find if you're slightly meaner to the models in your queries, they perform slightly better. Much like interacting with Joe.
Joe Weisenthal
No comment on that. You know what I do, I have said, which is I'll like, I'll have a query and it'll respond and I'll say, that was a little on the nose, wasn't it? Like, like it over.
Tracy Alloway
I'll say, do better.
Joe Weisenthal
Perplexity.
Tracy Alloway
And then it does.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, I've said like, do better. I've said things like that. It's like, this is really on the nose. This response was a little bit trite, don't you think, et cetera? Like, I do feel like I've gotten more comfortable at. Let's be real here. You're not doing, you're not doing your best job here. What do you think is like, it's interesting. They, like, I get that they win the gold medals and the math and et cetera. Like, I've had so many conversations with the chatbots that are on some level, like, mind blowing. The what? The capabilities. I've never seen a chatbot query that is like interesting. Like, that is like, oh, that is like a really interesting maybe one I can think of. But there was like a really interesting thought. I feel like my children still say on a daily basis more like interesting things that get me thinking than I've ever gotten from a chat bot. Does that resonate to you at all?
Tyler Cowen
I don't know. I think.
Joe Weisenthal
I feel like you've said so many more things in this hour than any. Than any interesting thing. Like actually like interesting ideas than I've ever got from the hours I've spent playing with Chat GPT or Claude.
Tyler Cowen
You know, I use mine a lot for music. So if I'm going to listen to Sibelius's fifth Symphony, I'll just ask it, what should I listen for? And I'll say, this is Tyler Cowan asking, which I hope raises the quality of the answer. It knows a lot about me.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tyler Cowen
And what it gives me to listen for I find is better than any human source I can access readily.
Joe Weisenthal
It's better I. That I agree with. But like, does it make a connection? Does it like tell you something about Sibelius's music that is like, oh, that's a very interesting. That's a novel way of thinking about what makes it profound. These are the things that I rarely ever encounter something that's like, oh, that is an interesting thought. Whereas I feel like if I were talking to a musicologist for an hour, I would get infinitely more like actual insight into something that makes the music special. So they I hadn't heard before.
Tyler Cowen
I don't know if it's novel because I don't really know the Sibelius literature, but most musicologists I find pretty boring. And I find say GPT5 on a classical symphony quite to the point. And whether or not it's original, it's not that important to me. It helps me listen to the music better.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tyler Cowen
And it's certainly original relative to the other source courses at my disposal, say Wikipedia or what I could Google to. So I think for almost all purposes that's enough. Does it have a truly original idea in the sense that Einstein's theory of relativity, when he came up with it, was original to him? I don't think so. That may come in some number of years, but again, for almost all purposes that's not what we need. We need something better than our pre existing state of knowledge. And on that I think it just cleans up.
Tracy Alloway
So I just asked Perplexity what music I should recommend to Tyler Cowan and it said that in order to recommend effectively to Tyler Cowan, I need to look for underappreciated recordings and obscure things that no one except him might have ever heard about.
Tyler Cowen
Good answer.
Tracy Alloway
And it recommended. I mean, boy genius seems pretty on the news. On the nose.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tracy Alloway
Right. Reggae acts like Toots and the Maytal.
Joe Weisenthal
Oh, yeah, this is. So is that a good one? Yeah. Tyler records.
Tracy Alloway
So it's just scraping stuff that you've already talked about.
Joe Weisenthal
It's not. It's not even trying.
Tracy Alloway
Yeah. All right, well, you need to make.
Tyler Cowen
The prompt more exacting. Rule out anything Tyler has talked or written about.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tyler Cowen
Give me something he doesn't know and try GPT5 in the Pro mode.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tyler Cowen
And I think it will succeed.
Tracy Alloway
Well, so on this note, this is something I've been asking everyone, but, like, what is an example in your mind of a really good prompt or one that sticks out to you that has generated something that, you know, maybe you didn't expect?
Tyler Cowen
You know, Dwarkesh Patel once wrote a very good prompt and he shared it with me when I interview some podcast guests. It's really a long prompt. It's, you know, hundreds of words and it asks what questions should I ask them? Then it goes into great detail. It should be a unique question. It should be a question they were not asked anywhere else. Then it's giving you what you think their answer might be and what would be my follow up question? And give me some cases where you think their answer might be wrong. And it goes on and on. And you run that through the very best models. I think you get good results.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, no, I've, I've run transcripts of the podcast before and as they say, like, well, where should I have pushed the guest harder on? What were the weak answers that they. What were the inconsistencies that the guest had over the time? And I've found it to be a very useful exercise for things like that. So I do think, like, that's the thing. Which is first. It is, it is objectively impressive on many of these fronts and I would say objectively useful if you do sort of a detailed prompting. I'm just curious, what do you. What's your, like, from the professor perspective? What do you think is the right way to think about how students will be using ChatGPT? I mean, I know that there's a million opinions in academia about, well, what's the right way to test now? What's the right way to deal with essays, et cetera. How are you thinking about some of these challenges?
Tyler Cowen
We should devote one third of all higher education to teaching students how to use AI, and right now that's close to zero. So we don't have the faculty who can teach it as part of the problem. Often the students know more than the professors.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, I'm sure. What about, like, things like, we need.
Tyler Cowen
To restructure radically what we do because future work will be done with AIs. So that's the thing to teach.
Joe Weisenthal
But like, so just to play devil's advocate, like, intuitively, I still feel like there is value in long periods of time, cut off reading, where you're not looking at devices, where you're training your body to sort of be disciplined and pay attention and focus. I still think memorization of facts and numbers and dates and places and names is very useful in actually having them in your head, etc. Does that seem right to you or is that sort of retro thinking on my part?
Tyler Cowen
No, strong, agree. And most of all, writing. But that's the other 2/3 of higher ed, right? I said one third should.
Joe Weisenthal
Oh, yeah. So tell us about the other 2/3.
Tyler Cowen
We should, with or without AI, just teach students much more and much better how to write. Most people can't write. Writing is thinking we should do much more to teach writing and test writing. And now with AI, that has to be face to face in a controlled environment, or people are just going to cheat so that we should have doubled down on to begin with. So that. And just numeracy and basic issues like how to manage a portfolio, what kind of mortgage to take out. There are classes that cover those things, but I think they ought to be front and center of any curriculum. Basic finance, basic life decisions like how to choose a doctor, how to prompt the AI, you know, for diagnosis, whatever, are relatively neglected in a lot of education. That to me just seems crazy.
Tracy Alloway
I want to ask one market question before we go, which is, obviously there's a lot of talk about an AI bubble at the moment, and I think the concern from a lot of people is when you start talking about a new technology as revolutionary, when you start talking about how, you know, the effects are basically going to be infinite and the market size is hypothetically the entire world, there's a risk that expectations overshoot reality. Right. And we have seen some people voicing their worries about that right now and a little bit of nervousness creeping into the market in terms of valuations. Where do you stand on the AI bubble? Do you see signs of froth or do you think most of the capex spending is justified at this point?
Tyler Cowen
I don't like the word bubble. I would point out that tech sector earnings are exceeding tech sector capitol expenditure. This is not mostly debt financed so we're in less trouble than many people think. It wouldn't shock me if a lot of these efforts lost money. That was the case with the railroads, the case with the Internet, case with most things humans have done. But I think it will endure. It's not like pets.com where the thing just gets swept away. These are incredibly well capitalized, highly skilled companies where the CEOs and or founders are quite committed to doing this and they're going to see it through and they're going to succeed. But does that mean every share value will go up or Nvidia ends up being worth $10 trillion? I don't know. I wouldn't necessarily predict that. There's always ups and downs. But this is clearly a very useful thing and we're gonna we as Americans we're gonna make it work and we're way ahead of the rest of the world. Like 3/4 of all AI compute is in this country. That's incredible. Where what percent of the world's population 6 or I don't know but way.
Joe Weisenthal
Smaller than 3/4 GPT 5 on thinking mode says you should listen to Michael Gulizian who does dreamlike acoustic guitar using an open tuning and it said that given your affinity for guitarists like John Fahey and Leo Kotke, you'll appreciate him.
Tyler Cowen
Send me that answer. It sounds excellent. I haven't heard of that person. I do very much like guitar with open tuning.
Joe Weisenthal
Kishore Amankar, a Hindustani vocal singer Things you'll like Sun O, Maryland Badrul Haq I'll send you this list and Katerina Barbieri Modern Modular Minimist Electronic Composition so.
Tyler Cowen
I will buy some of these but Sono I already know.
Tracy Alloway
How about a human recommendation?
Joe Weisenthal
Give us a recommendation.
Tracy Alloway
A human recommendation. Since you said that, you know country's pretty good right now but I guess you personally aren't that into it. But have you tried Orville Pep? I think there's a new album out out this week I think.
Tyler Cowen
What kind of music is it?
Tracy Alloway
Country but like a very modern type of country. I've tried to get Joe into it but I'm still working on it.
Tyler Cowen
I like some country and I love old country so Hank Williams, Johnny Cash, Jet Atkins, period.
Tracy Alloway
It has a vintage tone to it but with a modern twist. Try or Vulp and then get back to us about which was better in terms of the recommendations.
Joe Weisenthal
Tyler Cohen Tyler Cowan thank you so much for coming on. Odd lot, long overdue conversation. Really appreciate you taking your time.
Tyler Cowen
Great to chat with you both.
Joe Weisenthal
Tracy. A lot to pull out from that conversation. I think it's very interesting that early observation he made about sort of legacy institutions and whether perhaps some of the sort of lack of revolutionary impact yet is just about that metabolization process into the types of companies that could theoretically absorb them.
Tracy Alloway
Yeah, I mean, I, I think that's exactly it. Right. So companies are using this mostly as an add on to existing workflow. You're not going to get the huge productivity boom until companies are sort of centered, built from the ground up. Yeah. Which, you know, is probably going to take people who grew up with the technology rather than old people like you and I. Like you and I who just adopted it. The other thing I was thinking about, first of all, insurers are sort of a pet interest of mine at the moment, but I do think, like, they are emerging as some of the really big winners from a lot of, like, I guess, the data saturation of the world right now and the increased sophistication of analytical models and things like that. And that'll be very interesting to see how it shakes out. And you could, if you, if you took it very, very far as a sort of thought experiment, you could start to say that, like, well, the insurers are going to be a more important actor in terms of setting social standards and regulations in the future because they're the ones with the data doing all the modeling.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tracy Alloway
And saying, like, you have exactly an X chance of being in a car accident and therefore you must do the following things. Right.
Joe Weisenthal
I thought also, like, I hadn't really thought about, you know, subpoena ability. I think it was a very big issue. But it is interesting, right? Like, it is a little weird that you and I could have a phone conversation now if you're under oath and they say, what did you talk about with Joe? I expect you'd probably tell the truth unless it was very bad for me. And I would hope that you would lie.
Tracy Alloway
That's right, Joe.
Joe Weisenthal
I would hope that you would. I would hope that you.
Tracy Alloway
What's your hope?
Joe Weisenthal
I would hope that you perjure myself to save Joe. Yeah, I would hope that you would perjure yourself. But, like, you know, you theoretically could get away with it, so you should. But if we have an email, there's no chance. And it's sort of interesting. It's sort of. It's always seemed a little bit arbitrary to me, but it is Interesting to think about, like, okay, can we have a conversation with these entities and like, why do we have to leave it digital record and where are these going to be stored? And I do think in areas like health and law, which are obviously not obviously, but sort of intuitively low hanging fruit for productivity gains. How much have we not seen? Just in part because we're still sort of negotiating the transition process as a society. What are going to be the new rules and norms about this stuff, where it's going to be housed, et cetera? I think that's actually a sort of very interesting question. Or space. This is the space to watch, so to speak.
Tracy Alloway
Now that I think about it, we probably should have discussed some of the regulatory framework around all of this a little bit more. But next time.
Joe Weisenthal
Next time.
Tracy Alloway
But the other thing I've been thinking about lately is economic statistics.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tracy Alloway
In a world that's increasingly driven by AI. And I know that we had the big productivity discussion and technology in relation to technology in like the sort of early to mid 2000s, I'm not sure that ever actually got settled, but I very much expect that the AI economic statistics conversation is going to be even like wackier because I'm not sure how you do things like quality adjustments for something that like suddenly comes with its own brain.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tracy Alloway
And stuff like that.
Joe Weisenthal
So no, it's going to be super weird. I did. I don't know, in my mind I have like a very. These images of like Tyler getting a tour through the, you know, ChatGPT offices and the people asking us and him having to explain that we're not going to have 20% GDP growth at maybe two and a half or, sorry, productivity growth. And actually GDP isn't really that bad of a measure and it more or less captures the size of the economy. Even if a lot of Internet things are free, like some of these classic conversations. I would like to be a fly on the wall for some of those.
Tracy Alloway
Tyler Cowan in defense of gdp.
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah.
Tracy Alloway
All right. Shall we leave it there?
Joe Weisenthal
Let's leave it there.
Tracy Alloway
This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
Joe Weisenthal
And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me @thestalwart. Follow our guest, Tyler Cowen. He's Tyler Cowen. And of course, check out his podcast Conversations with Tyler. In addition, of course, Marginal Revolution. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez, Armenarman Dashiell, Bennett at dashbot and Cale Brooks. Al Brooks. For more Odd lots content, go to bloomberg.com oddlod with the Daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can chat about all these topics 24. 7 in our Discord Discord GG odd.
Tracy Alloway
Lots and if you enjoy odd lots. If you like it when we talk to Tyler Cowan and give him music recommendations then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on AD Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.
Joe Weisenthal
Ah, greetings from my bath festive friends. The holidays are overwhelming but I'm tackling this season with PayPal and making the most of my money getting 5% cash.
Tyler Cowen
Back when I pay in 4.
Joe Weisenthal
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Tyler Cowen
Make the most of your money this holiday with PayPal.
Joe Weisenthal
Save the offer in the app ends 12:31 see paypal.com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more. Paying for subject to terms and approval. PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 I'm Matt.
Tracy Alloway
Miller and I'm Hannah Elliott inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Hot Pursuit podcast.
Joe Weisenthal
Every week we bring you news and industry insight on everything cars and we.
Tracy Alloway
Do a whole lot more than just just talk about cars, Matt.
Joe Weisenthal
We actually get behind the wheel of.
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Basically every latest model, especially the luxury ones and the sports cars direct from the showroom floor.
Joe Weisenthal
It really is remarkable how many cars.
Tracy Alloway
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Joe Weisenthal
I feel a little bit guilty about it, but everything from $40,000 EVs to exotic half million dollar supercars.
Tracy Alloway
We also speak with the insiders who shape the automotive industry from the top CEOs and collectors to to visionary designers and racing champions.
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Search for Bloomberg hot pursuit on YouTube, Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Maybe you listen while you're on your weekend drive.
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Maybe go into cars and coffee. Listen to us talk about what we are driving this week.
Joe Weisenthal
That's Bloomberg Hot Pursuit. I'm Matt Miller in New York. And I'm Hannah Elliott in Los Angeles.
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Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts. This is the story of the 1. As a custodial supervisor at a high.
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School, he knows that during cold and.
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Episode Title: Tyler Cowen on Why AI Hasn't Changed the World Yet
Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway
Guest: Tyler Cowen (Economist, Marginal Revolution blog, "Conversations with Tyler" podcast host, Professor at GMU)
This episode investigates a central paradox in today's technological landscape: Despite the breathtaking advances in artificial intelligence, AI has not yet created the kind of dramatic economic disruption, productivity boom, or labor dislocation that popular narratives—especially from Silicon Valley—often forecast. Joe, Tracy, and guest Tyler Cowen (renowned economist and long-time blogger) discuss why these changes have been slower and less sweeping than tech boosters expected, the structural reasons for tech uptake lag, what sectors are seeing the most change, and how AI may shape work, creativity, and measurement in the future.
Incremental Adoption vs. Radical Overhaul
Legacy Organization Inertia
Programming & Finance
Law – Slow Uptake Due to Confidentiality/Regulation
Healthcare and Medical Diagnosis
Minimal Risk of Mass Unemployment
Potential "Losers": The Upper-Middle Class
On why seismic AI change takes time:
On AI's effect on labor market:
On the insurance paradox:
On cultural abundance and audience targeting:
On writing and higher education:
On the limits and promise of AI creativity:
On media versus AI interaction styles:
On privacy and subpoena risk with AI queries:
The conversation is collegial, reflective, and laced with dry wit. Tyler Cowen’s perspective is measured and skeptical of hype but confident in the long-term importance of AI. Joe and Tracy inject humor, personal anecdotes, and playful laments about how digital platforms have shaped both culture and their own careers.
Human vs. Machine Recommendations:
Politeness with AIs:
If you haven't listened: this episode explores why, despite hype, AI hasn’t yet transformed society as forecasted by tech evangelists. Tyler Cowen explains that the real revolution will come from new, AI-first organizations, not legacy incumbents lightly integrating AI as a productivity tool. Sectors like programming are already being transformed, whereas law and other regulated fields lag due to privacy concerns. Cowen remains optimistic that mass unemployment is not a likely outcome; jobs will shift rather than disappear. The trio also explore how AI changes culture and measurement, and touch on market speculation, education, regulation, and the future of human creativity in an age increasingly crowded with artificial minds.
End of summary.