Odd Lots: What China's Military Parade and Newest Jets Tell Us About the Battle For Air Supremacy

Podcast Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg)
Guest: Kelly Grieco, Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center
Date: September 11, 2025

Overview

This episode explores what China's most recent military parade, including its display of advanced drones and fighter jets, reveals about the current and future balance of airpower between China, the United States, and other global powers. Joe and Tracy delve into the state of defense technology, the economics of military production, and strategic implications with military aviation expert Kelly Grieco. They discuss key shifts in air combat, the meaning behind “generations” of fighter jets, and whether fears over U.S. military decline are warranted.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Initial Impressions from China’s Military Parade

[04:00-05:11]

• Drones Take Center Stage: Kelly Grieco notes the sheer number and diversity of unmanned systems at the parade, marking a significant difference from typical American displays.

  "What really struck me was actually the number of unmanned systems, the drones...that's the space where China is clearly developing...to have a lot of options and variety."
  — Kelly Grieco, [04:03]

• Holistic Force Integration: China seems to be moving toward integrating drones as core battlefield actors, with human pilots more frequently in supporting roles rather than vice versa.

  "It does seem that they're moving towards a model where they lead with the drones, and the human beings are more in a role of enabling that..."
  — Kelly Grieco, [05:36]

2. Generations of Fighter Jets: Definitions and Meaning

[07:16-09:35]

• Generational Terms Are Fuzzy: The idea of "4th gen," “5th gen,” etc., is less scientific than generally assumed. The U.S. and other militaries use these terms as shorthand for leaps in capability rather than tightly defined categories.

  "We try to group aircraft together where it seems like there's some leap or magnitude difference... The reality is that's not entirely the case and people will even disagree..."
  — Kelly Grieco, [07:16]

• What’s New About 6th Gen:
  • Tailless designs for improved stealth and efficiency
  • Integration of advanced AI-enabled “loyal wingman” drones working with manned fighters

3. Iteration vs. Revolution in Aircraft Development

[09:35-11:51]

• Mostly Incremental Advances: Aircraft design evolution has been mostly iterative. Missions remain similar; what changes are improved capabilities, often at increasing cost for diminishing returns.

  "This is evolution, not revolution...the missions haven’t really changed...Each generation is improving in some way iteratively the technology."
  — Kelly Grieco, [09:35]

• Cost-Effectiveness Questions: With spiraling costs and upgrades, there are tough choices over whether to jump to new airframes or extend existing ones with add-ons (like drone teaming).

4. U.S. vs. China: Who’s Ahead in Next-Gen Combat Aircraft?

[12:29-14:35]

• Who's Winning? Both the U.S. and China have showcased flying 6th gen demonstrator aircraft. The U.S. is likely still ahead in deploying “exquisite” platforms and drone teaming concepts, though China may have an edge in speed and scale of production.

  “I don’t think the United States is actually behind in terms of 6th gen technology... The issue might be...who's able to really scale up. And I think that's where we maybe should be a little bit more concerned about China.”
  — Kelly Grieco, [12:29]

5. Scale, Mass, and the Changing Nature of Air Combat

[15:38-18:54]

• Quantity Still Counts: Advanced tech alone is not decisive; mass and scalability remain vital.

  "There comes a point in which you can't make up for a lack of simple mass and numbers."
  — Kelly Grieco, [15:58]

• Unique Pacific Challenges: The vast distances of the Indo-Pacific region create further strain, requiring more aircraft and support due to range and refueling limitations.
• Increasing Fragility: Fewer, expensive jets mean losing even a small number can have outsized impacts, especially against modern sensor and missile threats.

6. What is “Air Superiority”?

[19:40-21:51]

• Spectrum, Not a Switch: Air superiority is not binary; it’s about degrees of controlling airspace and denying it to adversaries, with “supremacy” a rare condition the U.S. has grown accustomed to post-1990.

  "If air superiority allows you to win wars, then the Taliban should not be in power in Afghanistan...There is a spectrum...air superiority is a higher degree of control..."
  — Kelly Grieco, [19:40]

7. Recent India-Pakistan Air Conflict: What Was Learned?

[21:51-23:51]

• Rare Modern Duel: In a rare direct conflict between modern air forces, Pakistan achieved some aerial “kills” using Chinese-supplied planes and export-model missiles.
• Operational Lessons: The episode demonstrated the effectiveness of Chinese military technology in “real world” combat scenarios, challenging assumptions about qualitative edges.

8. Why Many Countries Don’t Build Their Own Aircraft

[24:26-26:10]

• Barriers to Entry: Building an indigenous air force is extremely expensive: needs include not only fighters, but refueling, surveillance, training, and maintenance capacity, along with a robust industrial and scientific base.

  “There’s a lot of barriers to entry in terms of developing your own indigenous aircraft...it can be an attractive option [to buy] because you avoid a lot of those startup costs.”
  — Kelly Grieco, [24:26]

• Global Marketplace: Unlike civil aviation, the military aircraft production landscape is more geographically diverse, with even “non-civil” producers (like Turkey, Sweden) fielding their own systems.

9. U.S. Defense Industrial Complex: Challenges in Innovation & Scale

[28:19-32:26]

• Scaling Up is Hard: U.S. manufacturers excel at complex “exquisite” systems, but have real trouble scaling output. Supply chains, lack of consistent long-term procurement signals, and concentration among “primes” (big contractors) all pose barriers.

  "Scale is a real problem...it's really hard for us to ramp up production of these things... challenges around supply chain bottlenecks."
  — Kelly Grieco, [28:19, 29:15]

• Spreading the Wealth (and the Risk): Defense programs often distribute work for political reasons, making them inefficient and hard to terminate. Market concentration also stifles smaller startups and true innovation.

10. How China’s Military Industrial Base Differs

[32:54-34:12]

• Greater Scale, More Consistency: China benefits from state-backed, long-term procurement signals and a larger labor pool. It can scale production far faster than the U.S.

  “Their capacity to scale up seems much greater...the lack of consistent [U.S.] orders...whereas I think China has been much more successful...to send those signals...placing much larger orders."
  — Kelly Grieco, [32:54]

11. Manufacturing Mindset: Lessons to Adopt

[34:46-35:43]

• Unlike Tesla’s approach (“the factory is the product”), the U.S. typically designs the platform first, and only then deals with how to produce it—an approach that hampers scalability in a crisis.

12. The Big Question: Is the U.S. "Screwed"?

[35:43-36:59]

• Nuanced Picture: Grieco asserts the U.S. is not fundamentally behind China, especially in terms of systems integration, sensor tech, and personnel skill. However, China is catching up and does have significant advantages in industrial policy and regional geography.

  "Military parades are great, they're fun to watch, but it's a quite a different thing to actually be able to use this capability ... I think the United States still maintains an edge ... over the Chinese.”
  — Kelly Grieco, [35:50]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "China is clearly developing that in-between space [for drones] ... to have a lot of options and variety."
  — Kelly Grieco, [04:03]
• "I don’t think the United States is actually behind in terms of 6th gen technology ... The issue might be ... who's able to really scale up. And I think that's where we maybe should be a little bit more concerned about China."
  — Kelly Grieco, [12:29]
• "There comes a point in which you can't make up for a lack of simple mass and numbers."
  — Kelly Grieco, [15:58]
• "If air superiority allows you to win wars, then the Taliban should not be in power in Afghanistan ... It is really subjective criteria ... we've gotten very used to [air supremacy], but it's actually an historical anomaly."
  — Kelly Grieco, [19:40]
• "It's really hard for us to ramp up production of these things. ... It’s much easier to ramp up artillery production, for example, than it is for these cutting-edge systems."
  — Kelly Grieco, [28:19]
• "We now need a good enough system in larger numbers. And so that requires a different model."
  — Kelly Grieco, [35:01]
• "We are bombarded in propaganda these days to an incredible degree."
  — Joe Weisenthal, [39:38]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Military parade impressions & drone focus: [04:00-05:36]
• On generations and technological leapfrogging: [07:16-09:35]
• US-China comparative advantage in next-gen aircraft: [12:29-14:35]
• Quantity vs. quality in air combat: [15:38-18:54]
• Defining air superiority and its limits: [19:40-21:51]
• Lessons from India-Pakistan air clash: [21:51-23:51]
• Why countries buy instead of build aircraft: [24:26-26:10]
• Lockheed Martin & US production challenges: [28:19-30:54]
• Comparing Chinese military industrial scale: [32:54-34:12]
• Final assessment on US vs. China military edge: [35:43-36:59]

Tone & Style

Engaging, slightly irreverent, and accessible—Joe and Tracy keep the tone informal and curious, while Kelly Grieco provides clear, insightful, jargon-free analysis. The conversation consistently balances technical detail with broad strategic implications, using humor and personal anecdotes to ground big-picture themes.

For anyone interested in military technology, defense economics, or great power competition, this thoughtful, nuanced conversation demystifies the spectacle of military parades and explores what really matters in the modern battle for air supremacy.