Odd Lots Podcast Summary

Episode: "What It's Like to Do Big Ag Business in Venezuela and Ukraine"

Hosts: Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg)
Guests: Jeff Kazen and Mike Rolfson (Co-founders, Agris Academy; former senior executives at Cargill)
Date: January 29, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Odd Lots dives into the realities of running large-scale agricultural businesses in two of the world’s most challenging economies: Venezuela and Ukraine. Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway draw on the deep experience of their guests, Jeff Kazen and Mike Rolfson—both with decades at Cargill—to explore the impact of collapsing institutions, currency hyperinflation, infrastructure breakdown, and the resilience required to operate amid dire instability. The conversation moves from post-Soviet Ukraine’s hopeful chaos to Venezuela's spiral under Chavez and Maduro, providing a ground-level view of how commerce actually happens when rule of law and supply chains are perpetually under threat.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Disconnection Between Natural Resources and Commercial Extraction

• The presence of "assets in the ground," such as oil or grain, is only a small part of the commercial equation; the necessities include reliable infrastructure, rule of law, and functioning markets.
• Joe notes: "There’s really not much of a connection...between the existence of natural resources in the ground and some way to get them out commercially, anywhere." (02:28)

2. Career Histories and Early Pioneering in Emerging Markets

• Jeff Kazen: 30 years at Cargill, rising through grain trading, executive roles, and joint ventures across vegetable oils and aquaculture; played a key role in Venezuela’s packaged oils business during its decline.
• Mike Rolfson: Sent to Ukraine in 1995 to set up Cargill’s presence from scratch; witnessed the shift from a Soviet system to chaotic capitalism, building real commercial activity from nothing. "It was five wonderful years…taking it from a theoretical representative office to seven or eight business units and hundreds of millions invested." (07:36)

3. Venezuela: From Wealthy Potential to Dysfunctional Reality

• Cargill’s businesses included salt, flour milling, oil bottling, rice, and pasta—often extending all the way to consumer branding.
• Venezuela was once seen as a rich, natural market for food conglomerates.
• Hyperinflation destroyed the domestic economy: "The currency ceased to function and that really changed the game on the ground in Venezuela." (10:04, Jeff)
• Kazen describes how quickly the bolivar diminished: "The BTU value of a paper boulevard was worth more than it could buy. You could burn it for fuel." (21:09, Jeff)
• As public sector collapse deepened, simply keeping the plants open became a multi-front currency and logistics battle: bartering, desperate efforts for parts, and ultimately a mass exodus of skilled employees.

4. Ukraine: Optimism and the Challenge of Corruption

• Rolfson recalls incredible optimism and a true pioneering spirit after the Soviet collapse, spanning both young market entrants and veterans of the old system.
• Early business adversities included both state bureaucracy and endemic corruption: "Most of the infrastructure and there were gatekeepers at various stages that could easily be catalyzed…We went straight to the farms...with people we could trust and just gutted it out." (22:33, Mike)
• Their approach was not to pay bribes, but to circumvent corrupted structures with “old-school” direct contracting—rewarding, if exhausting.

5. Currency Chaos and Adapting to Financial Dysfunction

• Venezuelan hyperinflation eventually required daily improvisation. Importing any material, even spare parts, demanded access to hard currency, forcing companies into odd barter and export-for-currency schemes.
• "At some point...we will put no more dollars in the country," Kazen recalls. "We were having to try to figure out how to generate enough dollars just to get spare parts." (28:22, Jeff)
• Both guests note the rise of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins (e.g., Tether) as tools for escaping failed fiat currencies, with stories of Venezuelans using early bitcoin mining as a lifeline. "There’s a lot of great stories around early bitcoin mining...where they’d tap into a small hydro plant, mine bitcoin...and had it as their escape valve." (31:35, Mike)

6. Brain Drain and Infrastructure Breakdown

• Venezuela lost a huge wave of its best-educated and most experienced workforce as conditions deteriorated.
• "The first wave [of emigrants]...were the most educated, the most skilled. It compounded itself, right, because now nobody knows how to run the electricity generation station..." (36:22, Jeff)
• Multinationals like Cargill tried to employ displaced Venezuelans elsewhere: "That played out hundreds of times inside my employer...Talented, smart, educated. We gladly re-employed them." (39:33, Jeff)
• Assets left unguarded were stripped: "You walk into a plant that you shut down...there’ll be nothing there. Unless it's running, you can't expect much." (40:54, Jeff)
• Security and constant vigilance became the norm for shipments and warehouse operations.

7. Corruption, Compliance, and Comparative Advantage

• Strict adherence to anti-bribery rules made some deals impossible but in the long run enhanced corporate reputation.
• Acting honestly built trust with other multinationals, especially for food safety: "It actually draws business to you...that brand helps out in these environments because the customers can count on you." (25:40, Jeff)

8. The Role of Multinationals as 'Nations'

• Hosts observe that multinationals, due to their scale and practices, establish internal “islands” of rule of law, security, and stability, which can provide a slice of developed-world predictability even in failing states.
• "Large companies are sort of...nations unto themselves...the moment you leave that office, you are out of that." (54:00, Joe)

9. Human Capital and the Realities of War (Ukraine Update)

• Today, Ukraine’s grain sector is hampered by war damage to core infrastructure, labor shortages, and a pivot back to more basic, low-input crops.
• "They're incredibly resilient people...it isn't like it's that distant in their past." (47:05, Mike)
• Wheat dominates, as it’s cheaper to grow and more practical given infrastructure limitations. "You can kind of get away [with wheat] with lesser intensive agronomic crops like wheat to still eke out a pretty darn good crop." (49:33, Mike)

10. Lessons for Multinationals Entering High-Risk Markets

• Jeff: "Start with a small business…treat that as a learning curve or…paying tuition before you jump in and make those big hard capital asset investments." (50:42)
• Mike: "The blueprint is there, it’s just going to take resilient people, patience, and an ability to go with the flow for the foreseeable future." (51:39)

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Joe (02:28): "Assets in the ground or anywhere mean nothing without the sort of rule of law, refining, processing, shipping infrastructure, etc."
• Jeff (10:04): “The currency ceased to function and that really changed the game on the ground in Venezuela.”
• Jeff (21:09): “The BTU value of a paper bolivar was worth more than it could buy…you could burn it for fuel.”
• Mike (22:33): "We went straight to the farms in smaller quantities in reasonable amounts with people we could trust and just gutted it out through atypical ways of getting the grain out of the country."
• Jeff (25:40): "It actually draws business to you…that brand helps out in these environments because the customers can count on you."
• Jeff (28:22): “At some point...we will put no more dollars in the country...We were having to try to figure out how to generate enough dollars just to get spare parts.”
• Mike (31:35): "There’s a lot of great stories...where they’d tap into a small hydro plant...and mine bitcoin, put it on a wallet and had it as their escape valve."
• Jeff (36:22): "The first wave, the first…were the most educated, the most skilled. It compounded itself…now nobody knows how to run the electricity generation station."
• Tracy (55:30): "You would assume with maybe this new relationship with the US, access to dollars maybe will get a little bit easier. But…it was fascinating to hear from Jeff just how creative they got when it came to securing dollars."
• Jeff (50:42): “Start with a small business…treat that as a learning curve or…paying tuition before you jump in and make those big hard capital asset investments.”
• Mike (51:39): “The blueprint is there, it’s just going to take resilient people, patience, attempting to maintain your teams…and see how this all plays out.”

Segment Highlights and Timestamps

• Intro and Contextual Discussion of Venezuela's Situation: 01:43–05:08
• Guest Introductions and Career Overviews: 05:29–08:24
• Venezuela Business Operations & Onset of Hyperinflation: 08:50–14:06
• Ukraine: Early Post-Soviet Challenges and Optimism: 14:06–16:13
• Logistics, Communication, and Risk Management in Both Countries: 16:13–18:36
• Corruption, Compliance, and Multinational Adherence to Ethics: 21:47–26:59
• Battling Currency Collapse and Finding Hard Currency: 27:24–31:34
• Crypto and Stablecoin Adoption in Dysfunctional Currencies: 31:34–33:17
• Venezuela’s Brain Drain and Migration: 35:59–40:16
• Plant Asset Breakdown, Security Risks: 40:16–45:53
• Ukraine’s Modern Struggles and Adapting Crop Mix: 46:36–50:18
• Advice to Future Multinational Entrants: 50:18–52:33
• Host Reflections on Multinational ‘Nationhood’ and Final Thoughts: 53:02–56:24

Tone & Language

The episode is rich in personal anecdotes, candid about difficulties and failures, and colored by the hosts’ curiosity and the guests’ wry, hard-won pragmatism. The conversation is honest about setbacks but also energized by tales of adaptability and resilience.

Memorable Moments

• Jeff’s story about the bolivar’s paper being worth more as fuel (21:09) offers a stark image of currency collapse.
• Mike’s recounting of bitcoin mining serving as a secret lifeline for Venezuelans fleeing the regime (31:35) illustrates extreme creativity forced by crisis.
• The revelation that multinationals often serve as rare “islands” of stability and safety for their employees amid crumbling national systems (54:00).

For anyone interested in global business, operational risk, or the real-world consequences of macroeconomic failure, this episode offers a rare, ground-level account of what it truly takes to keep commerce moving in the world’s hardest places.