What Trump's Tariffs Are Already Doing to World Trade

Summary

Odd Lots Podcast Summary Episode: What Trump's Tariffs Are Already Doing to World Trade
Release Date: April 7, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway
Guest: Ryan Peterson, Founder and CEO of Flexport

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Introduction to the Episode

In this episode of Odd Lots, Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway delve into the significant impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on global trade. As tariffs persist into what appears to be the foreseeable future, the hosts explore the multifaceted repercussions on both financial markets and the real-world economy, bringing together their extensive experience in financial journalism and economic analysis.

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Understanding the Tariff Implementation Process

Ryan Peterson begins by elucidating the mechanics of how tariffs are enacted, communicated, and collected:

"[03:20] Ryan Peterson: The tariffs are applied based on the country of origin for the products, typically categorized by product type. These new tariffs are cumulative and added to existing product category tariffs. Payments are made to the US Treasury via ACH or check, though refunds often get lost in the mail."

Key Points:

• Tariffs are typically applied based on the product category and country of origin.
• The recent tariffs are additional, making them cumulative.
• Payment methods include ACH transfers to the US Treasury or traditional checks.

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Impact on Businesses and Supply Chains

The discussion shifts to the immediate effects of the tariffs on businesses and global supply chains.

Ryan Peterson explains the altered groundwork for importing goods:

"[04:28] Ryan Peterson: Under normal circumstances, duty rates are determined when goods enter the US. However, the current reciprocal tariffs are based on the vessel's departure date, causing businesses to hurriedly ship goods before the higher tariffs take effect on April 9th."

Key Insights:

• The shift from arrival-based to departure-based tariff assessment is unprecedented.
• Businesses are scrambling to adjust shipping schedules to minimize tariff costs.
• 28% of surveyed companies are pausing ocean freight bookings, indicating significant disruption.

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Historical Context and Comparisons

Tracy Alloway draws parallels between the current tariff scenario and past events, particularly the supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ryan Peterson reflects on historical patterns:

"[08:46] Ryan Peterson: Our revenue depends on both the price and volume of shipments. Despite current challenges, historical data shows persistent growth in global trade, suggesting long-term optimism despite short-term disruptions."

Notable Comparison:

• In 2016, when ocean freight prices plummeted due to a carrier bankruptcy, Flexport experienced a 16-fold increase in volume, illustrating how market disruptions can create growth opportunities.

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Strategic Shifts and Manufacturing Decisions

Tracy Alloway probes into the strategic adjustments companies are making in response to tariffs, particularly regarding manufacturing locations.

Ryan Peterson addresses the feasibility of shifting manufacturing:

"[15:02] Ryan Peterson: Current tariffs are significantly higher than previous rounds, making it financially unviable for many companies to relocate manufacturing back to the US. For example, furniture import duties have skyrocketed, discouraging companies from moving production domestically."

Key Points:

• The escalation of tariffs makes relocating manufacturing to the US economically challenging.
• Previous strategies of shifting production to countries like Vietnam or Mexico are less effective due to compounded tariff rates.
• There's skepticism about the administration's aim to reindustrialize the US, given the financial impracticalities highlighted by businesses.

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Future Outlook and Potential Negotiations

The hosts and Ryan Peterson explore the uncertain future of tariffs and potential avenues for negotiation.

"[20:50] Ryan Peterson: We're closely monitoring our customers' strategies, including price adjustments and sourcing changes. Despite the grim outlook, there is hope for negotiations, as indicated by administration officials, which could lead to some tariff concessions."

Key Insights:

• Flexport is actively engaging with customers to navigate the tariff-induced turmoil.
• Monitoring consumer price adjustments helps Flexport gauge the transmission of tariff costs through the supply chain.
• Potential negotiations by global trading partners may offer some relief, but uncertainty remains high.

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Economic Implications and Long-Term Consequences

The conversation concludes with reflections on the broader economic implications of sustained tariffs.

Tracy Alloway emphasizes the long-term uncertainties:

"[22:24] Tracy Alloway: The macroeconomic implications hinge on how tariff costs are absorbed across the supply chain. Middlemen and retailers have margins that could either absorb or pass on these costs to consumers."

Joe Weisenthal adds his perspective on business profitability and investment:

"[22:48] Joe Weisenthal: Tariffs make running businesses in the US less profitable, leading to reduced hiring and investment. This environment counters the administration's goal of reindustrialization, fostering a cycle of deindustrialization instead."

Long-Term Concerns:

• Persistent tariffs may lead to sustained higher costs for consumers and reduced profitability for businesses.
• The uncertainty hampers long-term investment and confidence in the manufacturing sector.
• The potential for delayed industrial investments mirrors post-2008 economic hesitations, indicating prolonged economic repercussions.

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Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty

The episode wraps up with a somber acknowledgment of the challenges ahead:

"[24:40] Tracy Alloway: The uncertainty will never be off the table, always hovering in the background."

Final Thoughts:

• The enduring uncertainty surrounding tariff policies creates a precarious environment for businesses and global trade.
• While negotiations might offer temporary relief, the structural challenges posed by high tariffs present significant hurdles to achieving desired economic outcomes.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Ryan Peterson [03:20]: "These new tariffs get added to those product category tariffs. So it's cumulative."
• Ryan Peterson [04:28]: "Under normal circumstances, the duties are determined when goods enter the US, but now it's based on departure."
• Ryan Peterson [08:46]: "Historically, global trade has grown 4% annually, and I have a strong conviction that this will continue."
• Tracy Alloway [22:24]: "The macroeconomic implications hinge on how tariff costs are absorbed across the supply chain."
• Joe Weisenthal [22:48]: "Tariffs make running businesses in the US less profitable, leading to reduced hiring and investment."

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Implications for Stakeholders

For Businesses:

• Immediate need to adjust supply chains and shipping schedules to minimize tariff impacts.
• Reevaluation of manufacturing locations is financially constrained due to elevated tariff rates.
• Increased operational costs may lead to higher prices for consumers or reduced profit margins.

For Consumers:

• Potential rise in prices of imported goods as businesses pass on tariff costs.
• Limited availability of certain products if businesses reduce imports.

For the Economy:

• Reduced business profitability and investment could slow economic growth.
• Long-term deindustrialization risks undermining reindustrialization efforts.
• Persistent uncertainty hampers confidence and strategic planning within the manufacturing sector.

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Looking Ahead

As tariffs continue to influence global trade dynamics, Odd Lots underscores the necessity for businesses to remain adaptable and vigilant. While historical trends offer a backdrop of potential long-term growth, the current environment of high tariffs and uncertainty poses significant challenges that could reshape the landscape of global manufacturing and trade.

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Follow-Up and Additional Resources: For more insights and detailed discussions, listeners are encouraged to follow the hosts and guest on social media and explore additional episodes and content available on Bloomberg's Odd Lots platform.

Transcript

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[Tracy Alloway]

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe, Tariffs. One word.

[Joe Weisenthal]

One word.

[Tracy Alloway]

I'm just gonna start all the episodes by saying tariffs from now on, at least for the foreseeable future.

[Joe Weisenthal]

No, there's no other story. There really isn't. It's only tariffs for the foreseeable future. And I think, you know, we talked about it a little bit last week with Brad, I believe, plausibly, I don't know, in terms of quote, damage and all that stuff, but plausibly, this is the biggest story of our lives.

[Tracy Alloway]

The thing I don't want to say like about this story, but one notable thing about this story is it hits both markets, which you and I have been financial journalists for a very long time, as well as the real world economy. Right. And we kind of got really into that during the pandemic when we saw all these supply chain disruptions, ports, rent, rerouting ships and things like that. So this is a chance for us to unite two of our major interests.

[Joe Weisenthal]

That's right. This is what every guest that we talk to for years about how supply chains work. It's like, all right, let's just go down the list and call them all back up again and find out what's happening. Run it all back. Let's do it.

[Tracy Alloway]

All right, in the spirit of running it all back, we are going to be speaking to someone we've spoken to quite a bit before. Actually. This was one of our first ever sort of ports shipping disruption guests back in the early 2020 days. And I remember he came recommended to me back when do you remember when I was trying to ship a teddy bear?

[Joe Weisenthal]

I do.

[Tracy Alloway]

From Hong Kong to the US And I failed miserably. Well, someone said you should talk to Ryan Peterson. He's the guy who knows exactly what's going on. So we're going to be talking to him again today. That's Ryan Peterson, founder and CEO of Flexport. Welcome back to the show.

[Ryan Peterson]

Great to be back. It seems like whenever there's something really.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Bad happening, we call you up.

[Tracy Alloway]

That's right, that's right. Okay, so first question, let's see. We are recording this on Monday, April 7th. The 10% tariffs went into effect on Saturday, I think. And then the higher reciprocal tariffs, like up to 50% are due to take effect on Wednesday, April 9. How are tariffs actually enacted and communicated? Yeah, and collected. What exactly happens when tariffs are increased? Like walk us through the process.

[Ryan Peterson]

Yeah, so. Well, the tariffs are applied in this case as a blanket based on the country of origin for the products. But typically they're applied based on the category of the product. So these new tariffs get added to those product category tariffs. So it's cumulative. These are additional tariffs. And it, it happens with an ACH payment to the US treasury that you make via cpb, Customs or Border Protection. Most of the time you can send a check too. Actually, interestingly enough, if you get a refund on duties you apply and make some change and they approve it, they'll actually send you a check in the mail. And those keep getting lost. But that's a story for another time.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I think it's worth noting. I don't want to have to rerecord a bunch of intros to episodes because things could theoretically change so fast. So we are recording this literally at 9:06 if something about this conversation is out of date by the time you listen to this in a few hours. Sorry, but we're doing the best that we can. But given all of that, who pays the tariffs? If something is on the water right now, but it's not going to get here until the 10th, do they pay the tariffs? What actually is going to get tariffed and what can avoid the tariffs that hit on April 9th?

[Ryan Peterson]

Yes, this is a, this is a really interesting and important point for normally, under normal circumstances, the duties rates or the duty is due based on when the goods enter into the United States, when they arrive at the port. And your cleared customs for these reciprocal tariffs, they made the rule that it's based on when the vessel departs. And so therefore there's a mad scramble right now. Here we are, April 7th, it went on over the weekend to get cargo loaded and ships out the, you know, out of the port or planes taking off before that April 5th deadline. And that's happening again right now before the April 9th deadline. The difference being, you know, if you got out before April 5, you paid, no additional duty. You get it out by the 9th, it's 10%, and then it'll go up to whatever your country's duty rate is. That's new. That's something that's a little different for this time around. Usually it's based on when the goods enter the United States. So we actually won't see those payments made until the goods arrive. Right. Because that's the date that they're using to trigger what duty rate owed. But it won't hit the federal government's treasury until for another month, usually.

[Tracy Alloway]

So one of the reasons we like talking to you is because we get a sort of early read on WhatsApp actually happening with shipping traffic as well. But okay, so we had this, a little boost, you know, in the first quarter, people trying to build up their inventories, potentially get ahead of the tariffs. What are you seeing now that they've been actually announced?

[Ryan Peterson]

So we Flexports, we're one of the largest customs brokers in the United States. Helping these companies deal with this is like what we do every day. We obviously are very worried about our customer base and how they're going to adapt to this and push through it. So on Thursday, Friday, last week, we did a call down. We called as many customers as we could and just asked them what they're doing, what their plan is, what bookings are coming through, what we should expect. And what we found is that 28% of the companies that we got a hold of told us that they're pausing all ocean freight bookings. Now, that's pretty catastrophic. But we don't want to read too much into it, because one is what you said, Tracy, is that they have been importing quite a lot. This date was known for a while, since the January 20 or so. And so they're well stocked on inventory. They brought as much stuff as they could in before the higher duty rates hit. So that's one thing, is that they've got a lot of inventory. They planned for this. And then the second is there's a lot of ongoing negotiations happening. And a cabinet member told me that Liberation Day is the beginning and not the end of the process and that they will be negotiating deals. And that over the weekend we heard over 50 countries have come to try to negotiate something. And so if you think your duty rate might come back down, you're kind of pausing is what I would do, too.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I'm a little unclear. I know that there are those headlines about other leaders having come to negotiate, and some people are talking about negotiating position Et cetera. At other times you hear from people in the White House like, this is not a negotiation, or they were certainly not in a hurry to negotiate, regardless of what the actual truth is or to the extent that truth can be divined in the meantime, I just can't imagine doing any business.

[Ryan Peterson]

Yeah, I mean, you got to run your business.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Okay, okay.

[Ryan Peterson]

But it's very hard to make longer term decisions. Every decision is kind of week to week. And supply chains need much longer term planning. If the goal is to get manufactured, the stated goal is to move manufacturing back to the United States. But you can't do that in a world where you don't know what duty rates are going to change next week, next month, or next administration. So it's just a really hard environment to actually operate in. And all this time people have been moving manufacturing out of China into Southeast Asia, India, Mexico, and then they find out duties are coming for all those places too. So it's just like a very tricky to have any kind of long term view in this market.

[Tracy Alloway]

Speaking of long term views, I have to ask you sort of, I guess, personal question, but Flexport's business model is basically all about global trade. Right. And bringing stuff into and out of America. How much of an issue is this for your own business?

[Ryan Peterson]

Definitely a challenge. I mean, our revenue is the price times the volume. And if the volume goes down and the price goes down, our revenue is going to be under threat. So we don't want to sugarcoat it. It's a challenge for sure. At the same time, I look at two things. One is you can look at the long run, the truly long run. We've had 4% annual growth of global trade since the mongol invasions. And 4% annual growth over 800 years gets you a hockey stick curve like you wouldn't believe. It looked like a straight vertical line, basically. And so the result of that is what I intuit from that is I have pretty strong conviction. You fast forward 10 years, people will want to do more trade than they do now. I don't need that to be true for Flexport to be successful. But that is my conviction. What I know for certain will be true because I don't know for certain there will be growth in trade. But I am certain that people will value lower cost, everything that we're doing to automate transactions and eliminate costs. They'll appreciate more reliable service, higher quality data so they can make plans on how much, how many units to order, when to buy the goods, how to ship them, where to ship them. So they'll value compliance technology. So all the stuff that we're building will be incredibly valuable. Right now we're saying, okay, we gotta focus really hard on our customers, make sure that we help them and we earn every single shipment that they do. And then we have to go really hard. After growth, you know, prices are gonna fall, price of freight is going to fall. We have a pretty strong conviction of that, that the price of ocean freight is going to be really low, possibly historically low, later this year. That gives us an opportunity. We should be the ones that are passing that through to customers and making ourselves the best place to get affordable ocean freight in the world. And that should lead to growth. We've seen that in the past when we've had market disruptions. 2016 being the most obvious example. This is probably before Odd Lot's time. But in 2016 the price of ocean freight was so cheap that an ocean carrier went bankrupt. Hanjin, the K carrier. And that was a year that Flexport grew 16x in volume that year. So we know, you know, we haven't been through something exactly like this, but we've definitely, you know, history rhymes.

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[Joe Weisenthal]

To declare force majeure in my life, but I've never had the opportunity for it to come up. There was a headline that I think hit Friday about Helmet Aerospace saying it could halt orders, declaring a force majeure. I don't know whether, you know, that could go through legally. Do you anticipate though, like, let's just say again, the possibility, which I think is very real. You know, the tariffs are sort of fixed in place that you see like we are, you know, companies even, and that's a US Based manufacturer, but obviously presumably it has, you know, intermediate goods that it imports, like serious various types of players trying to get out of existing contracts or existing relationships.

[Ryan Peterson]

You're going to see a lot of that. Yeah, because, you know, let's say you're a vendor to a big box retailer and you signed a contract to sell something at this price and then all of a sudden, and there was no clause in there about tariff changes and all of a sudden you're way underwater on contract and you have to choose. You're going to either go bankrupt or hurt your reputation. Almost everyone's going to choose to hurt their reputation rather than die. So I think you'll see a lot of those types of things. There may be some. We do a lot of air freight out of China and a lot of it is for E commerce companies. And so we're looking hard. It's not a force majeure situation, I don't think, but we're looking hard at do we redeploy those aircraft to fly from other places? Maybe Taiwan to take advantage of all the chip growth, the growth in chips, maybe Vietnam. We're going to study the tariffs and see what makes the most sense. I mean, it's possible we stay in China and just continue to do what we're doing, but I suspect there just won't be enough volume.

[Tracy Alloway]

On this note, you touched on the earlier round of tariffs back during Trump's first presidency. What are the big differences between now versus then? Cuz my impression is, okay, obviously the tariffs the first time around, you know, around 2018, those weren't as high as the ones being talked about right now. But also, and I think you mentioned this earlier as well, we had a lot of companies who adjusted to the China tariffs just by rerouting some manufacturing into places like Vietnam or Mexico. That doesn't seem to be an option this time around.

[Ryan Peterson]

Yeah, I mean, so that's the most obvious. You hit on it. The first thing is these tariffs are much higher. So China 25% eight years ago seemed like a really big deal on China that people did reorient their whole supply chain and now for those same products that got hit with 25%, this stacks 54% on top of that sofa from China has a 79% duty. And if you're importing that from Vietnam, it's now a 46% duty. It's still worth going to Vietnam. I don't know yet. I haven't run the math. If it's worth coming back to North Carolina, I think that's a. The furniture industry is one to watch because those. We used to manufacture all this furniture down in North Carolina, maybe odd lots to do. An episode from the North Carolina. They have that.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We did.

[Ryan Peterson]

We did.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We actually. Funny you said, oh, you did. Last year, Tracy and I were not only in North Carolina, but we went to multiple textile operations there. So thank you for the opportunity. Thank you for the opportunity to let us plug our own work. But actually, that makes me. I was going to ask you, you know, one region that seems relatively spared is Latam. Could you see just sort of like a more hemispheric supply chain for a lot of stuff?

[Ryan Peterson]

Yeah. And Tracy was getting at that is like, well, companies move their supply chain, some to Mexico, some to Vietnam. I think before I answer the latte, I think it's possible that's part of why they put high tariffs on these other countries is that a lot of what was happening was the Chinese. Chinese companies were shipping components to, in many cases, subsidiaries, companies that they owned in those other countries and doing assembly there. And maybe the US Looked at that and said, hey, we've got a kind of like, leaky boat here. We got to plug all these holes and put tariffs on everybody. But they did go pretty light on Latam. 10% tariff across Latin America. Except for. Look at the map. I think that's Guiana, which is like an oil producer. And so I guess we buy too much oil from them and we want them to buy stuff from us or something. But it was basically 10% across all of Latin America. On the first read, when I first saw that, that's what I thought is like, oh, I guess they're trying to send a signal. This is going to be like our strategic backyard. You should manufacture in Latin America. But then you look at actually how they calculated the formula, and I think it might just be an accident of the.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Right, right. That they just don't sell that much to us. And so. Yeah, yeah, got it.

[Ryan Peterson]

I don't know if that was strategic. It looks not strategic. I was hoping. I was like, hey, there's some forethought to how this is all going to work, but I don't think so.

[Tracy Alloway]

No, the penguins would suggest otherwise. So, actually, Jo, do you remember one of the companies we spoke to in North Carolina, like a relatively small textile producer, they had moved a bunch of production out of the US Into Mexico. And when we talked to them, they were in the process of moving from Mexico to, I think it was El Salvador. And now, I mean, I don't know what they're planning now. But on that note, Ryan, is there any scenario where, like shifting some capacity to the US to prepare for a boom in exports? You know, ostensibly, that's what Trump is aiming for here, the return of manufacturing to America. Is there any scenario that you plan for where you're sort of reorienting some of your capacity to the US to prepare for that export boom?

[Ryan Peterson]

I don't really believe in it, personally. I mean, I've talked to two different people who had to really pause their factory buildouts because of the tariffs, because the machines that they were going to buy are too expensive now. You know, like, factories require machinery and components from other countries. So if you make it really expensive, you're going to have less manufacturing, not more. So I think this is, like, very unlikely to yield the results that they want.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It's darkly funny, but that's really grim. Right. There's this wide, bipartisan, strongly held view that reindustrialization should be some sort of priority. And the first thing you're. I mean, that's very dark that already you're hearing about companies putting pause on their factory efforts for obvious reasons. And it's the same reason I mentioned with that aircraft supplier. But that's pretty dark.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah.

[Ryan Peterson]

I mean, these machines, like Germany makes the best machines. One of our customers makes the machines that you put that fill beer bottles and water cans and stuff. And this company, I got to see one of these machines in person because I was asking the guy, I'm like, how many bottles can it fill? He's 140,000 per hour. There's like a billion, you know, doing a billion bottles a year per machine. I'm like, we don't make a machine like that. And if you want a site that does beer bottling, you got to have that machine. Like, you know, and we want these plants. You can't just manufacture every aspect of it all overnight. It reminds me a little bit of like, you know, you're a guy who hasn't been to the gym in 30 years.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Ryan Peterson]

And, like, you should go to the gym, but, like, don't try to deadlift £600 marathon.

[Tracy Alloway]

No, he could do it. He's, he's totally fit. He could do it.

[Joe Weisenthal]

I went to an exercise class last summer and I was like, a little too vigorous. And the teacher of it, I was like, swinging some kettlebells. He's like, bro, I know what you're trying to do, but seriously, like, ease off a little bit. He was like, he's like, he's like, I know you're psyched to get in shape for the summer, but, like, trust me, you want to slow down a little bit. So, yeah, I can relate.

[Tracy Alloway]

Ryan, what are you watching out for next in terms of the sequence of events here? So I guess obviously all of this could turn around very quickly if, you know, some phone calls are made and either a big trading partner announces some new amazing deal for the US or if Trump starts to back away from the tariffs, maybe water things down. But what are you watching for specifically in the sort of shipping and transportation and logistics world for the next stage of how this unfolds?

[Ryan Peterson]

Yeah, I mean, apart from watching everything the White House is doing and everything that comes out and watching interviews with the administration and stuff, it's really just about our customers and what are they doing, what are their plans to adapt to this, how are they booking their booking volumes, but also are they changing sourcing strategies, Are they raising prices? We've seen thus far just kind of monitoring the E comm websites of our customers. About a 5 to 10% increase.

[Tracy Alloway]

Oh, interesting.

[Ryan Peterson]

So monitoring that, trying to figure out, is that enough to cover the duties of these products? Like, we have quite a lot of data to go off of because we know that as their customs broker, we know how much they're paying for the goods and how much duty they're paying so that we can monitor is that flowing through to the consumer. So there's a lot of that type of analysis that we want to understand. And yeah, just trying to really just talk to every single customer out there and see where we can help them. It's like pretty grim, as you've said already, but I'm pretty hopeful. I did, you know, someone in the administration told me that there were going to be negotiations, so I think you're going to see some deals get cut.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, fingers crossed. Ryan, thank you so much for coming back on odd lots, in classic odd lots fashion when something bad is happening.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We talked to Ryan.

[Ryan Peterson]

Thanks for having me.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Take care, Ryan. Good.

[Tracy Alloway]

Joe. There's a lot to pull out of that conversation. I thought Ryan's last point about prices already starting to go up Was pretty interesting.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

And this is where a lot of the macroeconomic implication kind of lies. It's what part of the manufacturing process do the tariffs, the extra expense of the tariffs actually lie? Because there are a bunch of companies that could absorb the costs. It's not just the manufacturer or the retailer. There is also this layer of basically middlemen. Right.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah.

[Tracy Alloway]

They have margins too, but ostensibly they could also absorb some of this.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, the way I think about it is, you know. Yeah. Like how much flows through to consumer prices as measured in the traditional inflation indices. I don't think we know. The only thing we do know for sure is that it's going to make running businesses in the US Less profitable and less profitable. Businesses hire and invest less. And on top of the fact that you have these sort of lower profit impulse, so a less inclination to invest and build things, then, per Ryan, you already have entities putting the pause button on their actual manufacturing.

[Tracy Alloway]

Yeah, that's wild.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Which is the ostensible thing that we want to build out here. And so then you have this second layer of deindustrialization. I really think, like, there is a chance, you know, I mean, I don't want to, like, get too dramatic, but really accomplishes literally the exact opposite of what the stated aims are here.

[Tracy Alloway]

Well, also, this is the thing it accomplishes the exact opposite. We're seeing that already, but it can reverberate for years and years and years. Right. Because we know that it takes an enormous amount of time, money, and energy to do these types of industrial investments in the US and if you're uncertain at any point in time, like, memories are long in this particular sector. And so you could have lower investment for years. And the example that we've used frequently on this podcast is home building after 2008. Right. It's gonna take a long time for investors, companies, businesses to actually regain confidence.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Here's a question. Let's say there was a deal and Ryan says, maybe there's talking. I'll believe that somewhere someone is having a conversation with someone.

[Tracy Alloway]

Oh, sure.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Can Trump credibly commit to never using the tariff threat again for the rest of his administration?

[Tracy Alloway]

That's exactly it. Like, the uncertainty will never be off the table. No, it's always there, hovering in the background. On that note, shall we leave it there?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let's leave it there.

[Tracy Alloway]

Okay. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me, Tracy Alloway.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me @thestalwart. Follow our guest Ryan Peterson. He's types fast. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Cale Brooks at Kalebrooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.comoddlods where we have all of our episodes in the daily newsletter and you can chat about all of these topics including shipping, supply chains, economics, Trump tariffs, et cetera in our Discord, Discord, gg oddlauds.

[Tracy Alloway]

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we revisit all our supply chain guests from 2020, please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg Channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

[Thrivent]

Something unexpected happened after Jeremy Scott confessed to killing Michelle Schofield in Bone Valley Season one.

[Tracy Alloway]

Every time I hear about my dad.

[Ryan Peterson]

Is, oh, he's a killer. He's just straight evil.

[Thrivent]

I was becoming the bridge between Jeremy Scott and the son he'd never known.

[Tracy Alloway]

At the end of the day, I'm literally a son of a killer.

[Thrivent]

Listen to new episodes of bone Valley Season 2 starting April 9 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.