Off the Radar: Autumn's Algorithm - The Future of Foliage Forecasting
Hosted by Emily Gracey of The National Weather Desk
Introduction
In the September 17, 2024 episode of Off the Radar, meteorologist Emily Gracey delves into the captivating world of fall foliage forecasting. Titled "Autumn's Algorithm: The Future of Foliage Forecasting," the episode features a conversation with Evan Fisher, a young and innovative meteorologist from Asheville, North Carolina. Evan has transformed the traditional methods of predicting autumn colors by developing a high-tech forecasting model through his website, Explore Fall.
Guest Background: Evan Fisher
Evan Fisher, a 24-year-old meteorologist and UNC Asheville alumnus, is the founder of Explore Fall—a website dedicated to providing accurate fall foliage forecasts across the United States. With a degree in meteorology and ongoing graduate studies in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at NC State, Evan combines his academic background with a passion for data science and mapping to enhance how fall colors are predicted and experienced.
“Explore Fall was really just kind of my pet project a couple of years ago. My idea to help people find fall color and it's grown since 2022 to become this website where people can visit and use interactive maps and really dive into the specifics of fall foliage across the country days in advance.” [04:38]
Explore Fall: An Overview
Explore Fall distinguishes itself from traditional foliage maps by offering high-resolution forecasts that break down predictions into 16 square kilometer boxes—significantly smaller than county-based maps. This granularity allows for more precise predictions, especially in regions with complex terrains like the Appalachian Mountains and the Rockies, where fall colors can vary by up to three weeks within a single county.
“One of the things that actually inspired me to make Explore Fall was the fact that all of these fall foliage maps on the Internet, I think previous to Explore Falls birth was all of the maps were county based. And county based fall foliage maps are great in flat areas without much varying weather condition.” [05:24]
Technical Aspects: Modeling and AI Integration
Evan's approach leverages real-time weather data and advanced computer models to forecast fall colors accurately. By analyzing factors such as daylight reduction, temperature fluctuations, and the production of anthocyanin—a chemical responsible for red leaf colors—his model predicts the onset and progression of fall foliage.
In the latest iteration, Evan has integrated artificial intelligence to enhance the robustness of his forecasts. By incorporating vegetation indices like the brownness index derived from satellite data, the model can better estimate the timing and intensity of color changes.
“We've been able to extract all of these fall foliage like time series in interpreted through the lens of brownness index from past years. So it ingests all of that data and makes a prediction of brownness index.” [12:39]
Challenges and Accuracy
Despite the advanced technology, Evan acknowledges the challenges in achieving near-perfect accuracy. Variations in local soil moisture, drought conditions, and unexpected weather patterns can affect the timing of peak colors, making precise predictions difficult in some areas. However, Evan maintains that Explore Fall achieves an accuracy rate of 80-90% within a three-day window across the country.
“We may have peak color on one mountain two weeks before the next door mountain. They can be rarely kind of all over the place just depending on that local soil moisture condition.” [17:18]
Current Season Forecast
For the 2024 fall season, Evan anticipates a vibrant display of colors across much of the Eastern United States, despite ongoing drought conditions in certain areas like West Virginia. He highlights regions such as New England, Utah, and Colorado as prime locations for peak foliage, each offering unique and picturesque landscapes.
“New England's going to be great. If you have to avoid somewhere, avoid West Virginia. But it would still be good if you, if you go there too.” [17:18]
Evan also points out the extended length of the fall season in the Southern Appalachians, which can rival, and in some aspects surpass, the traditional New England foliage period.
“That's really even longer than New England.” [20:03]
Future Plans and Expansions
Looking ahead, Evan plans to expand Explore Fall's capabilities beyond the United States by developing a low-resolution global map. This expansion aims to include regions in Europe and Asia known for their stunning autumn landscapes, such as Romania, Japan, and South Korea.
Additionally, Evan is interested in diversifying his modeling efforts to encompass other seasonal phenomena, including skiing forecasts and rhododendron blooms in the Southern Appalachians.
“My goal for next year is to at least have a low resolution global map available to the public.” [26:36]
Evan also envisions collaborating with educational institutions and potentially publishing his methodologies to contribute to the broader scientific community.
“Inside of five years I would love to publish some of our methods.” [23:05]
Monetization and Partnerships
While Explore Fall initially struggled financially, Evan reports progress through partnerships with tourism agencies nationwide. These collaborations involve licensing his data for use on external websites, allowing these agencies to offer accurate fall foliage information to their visitors. Evan remains open to exploring sponsorship opportunities, particularly for his emerging YouTube live streams, which aim to provide additional context and engage with a broader audience.
“We have evaluated and stepped into about a half a dozen partnerships with tourism agencies across the country who are looking to license our data and use them on their own websites.” [15:56]
Public Engagement and Educational Outreach
Evan emphasizes the importance of public feedback in refining Explore Fall's models. Users are encouraged to report inaccuracies to help enhance the forecasting system. Moreover, Evan is actively working on educational content, including webinars with the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and YouTube live streams, to share his knowledge and engage with the community.
“If you find something that's inaccurate, please let me know. I know this map is not perfect. It's not a perfect science and it won't be for quite a while.” [24:20]
Conclusion
Evan Fisher's innovative approach to fall foliage forecasting exemplifies the intersection of meteorology, data science, and public engagement. By leveraging high-resolution mapping and artificial intelligence, Explore Fall offers an unprecedented level of detail and accuracy in predicting autumn colors. As the platform continues to grow and expand globally, it promises to enhance how enthusiasts experience one of nature's most beautiful seasonal displays.
“I hope so. Thank you so much for having me on. And it was wonderful to chat about all this good stuff.” [27:19]
Additional Resources
- Explore Fall Website: www.explorefall.com
- YouTube Live Streams: Follow Evan Fisher on YouTube for live updates and insights.
- American Meteorological Society Webinar: Upcoming webinar in late September featuring Evan Fisher.
For more episodes of Off the Radar, follow the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform. New episodes are released every Tuesday.