Baseball's Weather Playbook

Summary

Podcast Summary: Off the Radar – "Baseball's Weather Playbook"

Episode Information

• Title: Baseball's Weather Playbook
• Host: Emily Gracey, National Weather Desk Meteorologist
• Release Date: April 1, 2025
• Description: In this episode, Emily Gracey delves into the intricate relationship between weather and baseball. She engages with Morgan Adsett, a seasoned sports reporter, and Clay Nunley, MLB’s baseball scientist, to explore how various weather elements like humidity and wind influence the game, the implementation of advanced wind modeling in ballparks, and the broader implications for players, teams, and fans.

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1. Introduction to the Episode and Guests

Emily Gracey sets the stage by highlighting the excitement of baseball intertwined with the unpredictability of weather. She introduces her guests:

• Morgan Adsett: A sports anchor and reporter for Fox 45 in Baltimore with nearly two decades of experience covering baseball.
• Clay Nunley: MLB’s baseball scientist with a strong background in physics and electrical engineering, responsible for integrating weather modeling into the game.

Notable Quote:

Emily Gracey [00:32]: "This week we are going off the radar and into the outfield to understand the weather impacts on America's favorite pastime."

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2. Weather Elements Affecting Baseball

Humidity: Morgan discusses how summer's heat and humidity contribute to higher home run totals. She explains that humid air, being less dense, allows the ball to travel farther.

Notable Quote:

Morgan Adsett [05:23]: "When you get into summer or the heat and humidity, just the home run totals go up... it just makes the ball travel and carry."

Impact on Players: High humidity affects pitchers by making the ball slippery, complicating grip and control, especially in high temperatures. This can lead to increased difficulty in command and consistency.

Notable Quote:

Morgan Adsett [06:48]: "It's hard to command the ball and hold on to it. Especially when you're tossing mid to high 90s, you can easily lose control of it."

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3. Wind Modeling and Its Implementation in MLB

Introduction of Wind Modeling: Clay Nunley explains the collaboration with Weather Applied Metrics, a company specializing in 3D wind modeling of stadiums. This partnership began with pilot studies in select ballparks and expanded to all MLB parks in 2023.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [14:00]: "Weather Applied Metrics can model it. They have a really good 3D model of what the stadium looks like... and how the wind interacts with the stadium and affects home runs and pitches."

Process and Evolution: Initially, wind impact was qualitatively understood through visual indicators like flag movements. The advanced modeling now provides quantitative data, enabling precise analysis of how wind affects each play.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [17:58]: "So Weather Applied Metrics was in a handful of parks, and that told us what was possible... we never really calculated quantitatively."

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4. Case Studies: Historic Home Runs and Great Games

Ted Williams’ Legendary Home Run: The team uses advanced wind modeling to revisit the infamous 1946 home run by Ted Williams, which hit a fan in the outfield. The analysis reveals that strong winds that day could have carried the ball approximately 530 feet, validating the historical account.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [25:31]: "Ted hit a ball really hard, and it got up into this unabated stream of winds... that wind carried it all the way to that red seat in right field."

Kerry Wood’s 20-Strikeout Game: Clay analyzes Kerry Wood’s remarkable game in 1998, attributing part of his success to favorable wind conditions that enhanced pitch movement, demonstrating how environmental factors can influence exceptional performances.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [28:20]: "The weather situation that day in 1998 for Kerry Wood's greatest game... the environment was also cooperating that day."

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5. Impact on Players, Teams, Betting, and Broadcasting

For Players and Teams: Wind data assists teams in strategizing defensively and evaluating player performance more accurately by accounting for environmental variables.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [21:59]: "Baseball clubs, analytics departments... the more they know about wind, the better they can prepare and make tactics for their defense."

Betting Industry: Morgan highlights how bettors incorporate wind and other weather data into their strategies, adjusting lines and bets based on anticipated environmental impacts.

Notable Quote:

Morgan Adsett [11:07]: "Betting nerds already have that element. They definitely are on that... factoring in ballpark design and weather."

Broadcasting and Storytelling: MLB utilizes wind data to enhance broadcasts, offering fans deeper insights and engaging narratives about how weather influenced specific plays and outcomes.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [21:59]: "We want to tell the story of what's going on in a particular park on a particular night... those are good stories."

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6. Future Applications and Expansion to Other Sports

Advancements and Consistency: Clay envisions further refining weather models to include additional factors like air density and expanding these applications to other sports, such as football and golf, where wind and environmental conditions play significant roles.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [32:18]: "I think baseball is going to exhaust what we can do with weather. I think other sports will benefit... football... golf."

Integration with Park Design: The data assists in designing new ballparks tailored to their specific environments, ensuring optimal play conditions and maintaining consistent run environments across venues.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [32:18]: "It'll help clubs design parks based on the environment they're in so that they can have at least the run environment that they think is appropriate for their team and for the league."

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7. Conclusions and Final Thoughts

Emily Gracey wraps up by emphasizing the significant role weather plays in baseball and the innovative steps MLB is taking to incorporate this data into the game. She encourages listeners to follow the podcast for more insightful discussions and hints at upcoming episodes focused on science communication and tropical weather.

Notable Quote:

Emily Gracey [34:25]: "Off the Radar is a production of the National Weather Desk. Make sure you're following the show... New episodes publish every Tuesday."

Clay expresses enthusiasm for his role and the potential of weather modeling in sports, highlighting Weather Applied Metrics as a pioneering company in this domain.

Notable Quote:

Clay Nunley [34:41]: "Weather Applied Metrics is great. It's born out of a really pure idea, and they've got some really smart people to help execute it."

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Key Takeaways:

• Weather’s Multifaceted Impact: Humidity, wind, and temperature significantly influence baseball dynamics, affecting everything from ball trajectory to player performance.
• Advanced Wind Modeling: MLB's integration of 3D wind models provides a quantitative understanding of how wind interacts with stadium architecture, enhancing strategic decision-making and storytelling.
• Historical Insights: Re-examining historic baseball moments with modern technology offers validation and deeper appreciation of legendary performances.
• Broader Implications: The advancements in weather modeling extend beyond baseball, offering valuable insights for other sports and recreational activities.

For Further Listening: Subscribe to "Off the Radar" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred platform to stay updated with future episodes exploring the intersection of weather, climate, and various facets of life and sport.

Transcript

[Emily Gracie]

The crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, the unpredictable force of Mother Nature from humid nights.

[Morgan Adsett]

And when you get into summer or the heat and humidity, just the home.

[Emily Gracie]

Run totals go up to windy afternoons.

[Morgan Adsett]

High fly ball, it's sweet, swirling around. Out in the outfield, there's a lot more space. You may think it comes hot off the bat and then it kind of takes a little bit.

[Emily Gracie]

This week we are going off the radar and into the outfield to understand the weather impacts on America's favorite pastime. I'll talk to a veteran sports reporter about what she has seen in her years of covering the game. Also speak to a baseball scientist from the MLB about how the new use of wind modeling in ballparks is changing the game.

[Clay Nunley]

You know, every time there was a pitch, every time there was a hit. We had calculated wind impact and weather impact for that play as well as.

[Emily Gracie]

Helping to solve old home run conspiracy theories.

[Clay Nunley]

But Ted Williams home run would have gone about 530. We've never measured anything close to that.

[Emily Gracie]

So get yourself some peanuts and Cracker Jacks as we explore baseball's meteorological mysteries. I'm meteorologist Emily Gracie and you're listening to off the Radar, a production of the National Weather Desk. On the show, we dig deep into topics about weather, climate, the ocean, space, and much more. Our goal is to help you better understand the weather and to love it as much as we do.

[Ethan Cross]

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[Emily Gracie]

Welcome to off the Radar. Emily Gracie here. Baseball season is also here, so I thought I'd bring back this super amazing episode from last year. If you missed it, you're in for a treat. I'm talking to Clay Nunley, who's the MLB baseball scientist. If you're like me, you didn't know that was even a thing. But his job is Actually pretty cool. And Clay's a super smart guy. His undergrad and graduate degrees are in physics, and he has a PhD in electrical engineering. But these days, he spends a lot of time looking at wins in baseball stadiums. Not just present and future, but also the past. So if you're into sports betting at all, you're going to want to pay attention to what he has to say. You're also going to want to hear from my first guest, Morgan Atsit. She's a sports reporter that's been covering the game for nearly two decades. She's seen it all and has some really interesting observations when it comes to weather and baseball. If you haven't already, make sure you're following the podcast on your favorite platform. We have some amazing episodes coming up this spring. Next week, we'll hear from two former NOAA employees about science Communic. And then in May, we're diving deep into all things tropical with the upcoming hurricane season. I'll have the latest tropical science with the folks from the National Hurricane Center. Also, please give me a follow on Instagram. I'm posting clips from the show and all the latest weather news.

Just search off the radar podcast.

Happy Spring, everyone. And please enjoy my conversations with Morgan Adsett and Clay Nunley.

Morgan Adsett, welcome. Hi. Hi.

[Morgan Adsett]

Thank you.

[Emily Gracie]

I know, I know. Well, you know what? You're not a meteorologist, so I had to wait until the appropriate time to have you on the show.

[Morgan Adsett]

But just say I'm not smart enough. That's fine.

[Emily Gracie]

No, no, no, no.

Very different kind of smart.

And it's fun because people can't see us right now, so they can't mix us up. But when we work together, people are constantly calling us by each other's names. It's just funny.

[Clay Nunley]

Any.

[Morgan Adsett]

Any Blonde wolf.

[Clay Nunley]

I know.

[Emily Gracie]

I was gonna say I don't really look that much alike either. Okay, so, Morgan Adsa, you are a sports anchor and reporter for Fox 45 in Baltimore. We work together for many years. We've known each other for many years. I have. You've been my friend for a long time, so I'm thrilled to have you on and to talk about this stuff that I really know nothing about and need your expertise on.

[Morgan Adsett]

I think we could put both our heads together on this topic and we'll make it make sense.

[Emily Gracie]

One person who's capable of carrying on a conversation. Okay, so I've been wanting to do this episode for a while because it's emerging of baseball and weather and there's this group that has created weather Modeling in baseball stadiums. But I'm curious from you because you have been a sports anchor for a very long time now, what you have noticed over the years when you've been in these ballparks. I know a lot of your career has been kind of Camden Yard space, but you've traveled, too. So have you noticed anything about the way the ball moves or the way the game is played based on the different stadiums?

[Morgan Adsett]

Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean, the biggest thing with Camden Yards and really any time of the year for any baseball season, when you get into summer or the heat and humidity, just the home run totals go up, you'll see velocity exit. I. You can chime in on the thick air and what humidity does, but just kind of having, I'm sure, like some just thickness and wet, it just makes the ball travel and carry. So home run totals usually always go up in the summer. And when you hear of a player that started out kind of late March, April, maybe even May, like a little bit slumping, that's not for the power or not for the extra base hits. It's kind of like wait and see. And then you see it really turn on in the summer. That's the biggest thing.

[Emily Gracie]

You're saying that you notice that, because I think we know that as meteorologists, that, yes, we call it thicker air, but it's actually less dense. Humid air is less dense. So the ball technically should be traveling farther through that air. But to somebody who doesn't know that about air and density, I'm surprised that that it's that noticeable.

[Morgan Adsett]

It is, and it's talked about. I mean, when you're covering the games, as far as the hit totals and the home run for power and how hitters love it, pitchers might not love it. And then you also have just the whole. When it is really hot and humid. And the Orioles had a game earlier in the season where it was just kind of gross. It was sticky. And Cole Irvin, one of their starting pitchers, said, and it was during spring training, like, he had trouble, like, holding onto the ball. So it's just, you know, like the wetness and sweat and to use your.

[Emily Gracie]

Favorite word, it was moist. Is that what you're saying?

[Morgan Adsett]

Well, I'm over that now. Yeah. Say moist all day long, but it's just, it, it's a fine line between when it's working for you, because for a picture, if it's, you know, maybe you have some. You have some sweat or some sunscreen, and then you pick up the rosin bag and then you got A little bit of a combination. And they check for all this stuff. Sunscreen, played into it, school hair, mousse. I mean, there are little ways to kind of get around some things, but they are checked for illegal substances. But if you have that sweet spot combination, you got the grip. But if it's just really gross or they're just having a hard time with sweaty, it's. It's not so much you're making the sticky. It's just wet. And it's hard to command the ball and hold on to it. Especially when you're tossing mid to high 90s, you can easily lose control of it. And just as much as the home run can fly out, the ball can kind of fly in as well.

[Emily Gracie]

Interesting. Okay, so then another, well, weather element that's not talked about quite as much, but is a huge factor, maybe even bigger is wind. And Clay was saying that it's not as big of a factor anymore because of the way that the fields are built. They're built up so high, there's so many seats. It's much more protected. But like back in the day, home runs technically used to go farther because they could pick up wind and just take off. And he actually did an analysis of Ted Williams home run, which I'm sure you know about Fenway and that Red Sea twist I didn't know about, but he did a whole analysis of that. And. And he was like, a lot of players say that there's no way it could have gone this far, but in his, like, forensic analysis using this wind modeling, he said it actually went farther because of the way home runs are measured is different than how it used to be.

[Morgan Adsett]

And there's a technology, too. You can actually see it get hit now. You can, like, actually grab the cameras and all the replays and like, boom. It hit right here on Utah street at Kinman Yards. Let's make them a plaque. A lot of that stuff. I'm sure the technology played into it as well, but wind is a huge factor. Pitchers, batters get it. Maybe not as much, but fielding. Fielding is huge. High fly ball, it's swirling around out in the outfield, there's a lot more space. You may think it comes hot off the bat, and then it kind of takes a little bit. So that's. You'll see a lot of fielders when you get those conditions, especially in postseason in October, when it gets a little bit colder and chillier, you'll see them really out in the outfield taking way more reps pre game just to kind of get the feel or if they've never played that outfield. What's so unique to baseball is there are certain rules for dimensions, and then all ballparks are different. And really, cannon yards was kind of the first to do that. Asymmetrical outfield, which is just a different, unique design that makes it look nice. And there has to be certain rules you have to hit. But all outfields are different. Some are larger, some are smaller. I did. I loosely covered the Reds, but I'm from southwest Ohio, so when we go home, we go to Reds games a lot. They call that great American small park instead of ballpark because they had some logistics with just the Ohio Rivers right there. And we can only have so much space here. And it was already kind of like, smaller anyways. It helps with the home runs, but all of that stuff factors into how these players feel. Not only the way the ballpark looks, but the weather that's attributing, like, hey, this is literally on the water. In San Francisco and Cincinnati, you can see the water from the outfield that's going to play in Baltimore, you can't see the water, but the humidity and the weather elements come all around that as well. So geographically speaking, where ballparks are and weather plays in huge.

[Emily Gracie]

Have you seen this new the weather applied metric system that they just started using last year? Because they said a lot of it has to do with kind of pleasing the broadcast partners and showing, like, what wins are doing during the game?

[Morgan Adsett]

Not. No, we get mass in here locally and, like, they never pop anything up on the screen. I know they had that technology and they'll talk about it, but as far as getting my eyes and hands on it, I have not what I really see. And I don't know if you guys dabbled in this. And weather is huge. And I'm not saying this to offend anybody, but baseball fans are sometimes baseball nerds in a good way, because they know the science, they know the numbers. You'll see a lot of this play in with betting. If the weather is going to affect the pitcher, like, do I need to move the line? Do I need to bet that game? Because it's really hot and humid and they have a lot of power in their lineup.

[Emily Gracie]

There could be like, a huge convergence of nerds. If you factor in the weather nerds and the baseball nerds and get them together, you're going to have baseball fans.

[Morgan Adsett]

Out there, like, betting nerds already have that element. Because you'll hear a lot of betting experts talk about, well, the weather In Pittsburgh, you know, the weather. In San Francisco weather and la, you know, LA weather, I don't really think that's played too much into it, but they definitely are on that. In the betting world of factoring in ballpark, not only lineup and talent, pitchers, matchups, but ballpark, ballpark design and weather.

[Emily Gracie]

Interesting. That's very cool.

[Morgan Adsett]

Are you going to start gambling now?

[Emily Gracie]

I might. I'm not much of a gambler, but yeah, I might. Okay, cool. Well, so today as I kind of talked about, Clay Nunley is technically a baseball scientist for mlb. And I kind of found him online because he was writing these articles about the stuff that we've been talking about. And it's very cool because he's been instrumental in kind of getting this weather, wind modeling into the ballparks and then understanding it and then also doing forensics on old situations to see like, like the Ted Williams thing. Did this happen? So, so I'm going to talk to him today all about that. Morgan adds it. Thank you so much for your expertise today. Of course, you said a lot of stuff I didn't understand, but I, I know it's all very smart and very correct, so don't doubt.

[Morgan Adsett]

Just remember, all ballparks are different. Some rules do apply, but sometimes you're geographically landlocked or challenged. Like, the ballparks all have to face the same way because the ball has to be coming in with sunlight and where the sun is up for the majority of the games. I know day games factor in, but all that stuff's real and goes into like, they just don't find land and plop a stadium down. I mean, there's a reason they had to be turned a certain way or look a certain way. And then all the outfields are different.

[Emily Gracie]

Awesome. Well, thank you so much for joining me, Morgan.

[Morgan Adsett]

Thanks for having me. Good to see you.

[Emily Gracie]

Now, here's my conversation with Clay Nunley. You have the coolest job ever. I didn't even know this position existed. You are the MLB scientist, is that correct?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, I think my, my actual title is baseball scientist, but I'm really just a normal scientist and I work on baseball problems. So. But I think what that means is that I help us measure things about baseball and our environment so we can make good decision decisions, create good data, and get good content engagement with fans so we could tell good stories about baseball.

[Emily Gracie]

So were you a baseball player? Like, did you play up, grow up playing baseball?

[Clay Nunley]

It was like in junior high, so my career stopped about eighth grade. And then I went on to other Things.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, so let's talk about weather elements in baseball and kind of break it down, because obviously we're going to get into win. But that's not the only factor that affects the baseball in the game. Humidity is a factor, too. Right. I feel like I hear a lot of people talking about humidity and the ball moving a different way because of the level of moisture in the atmosphere. So can you kind of tell me the different weather factors and how they're impacting the game?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah. And to. To back off a little bit, Baseball is unique among our major sports because it's all. We're. We're played in all kinds of different facilities, all type of different venues. We've got ballparks that were built in 1912, 1914, and then built more recently. And so we'll talk more about weather and wind in a second. But baseball is also, like. It kind of tells you what's going on in the atmosphere. You know, we've got a park here in Colorado that's a mile high, and there's less air resistance here. So balls travel further when they're hit, and they don't slow down as much when you pitch them. Another consequence of that is they don't move as much when you pitch in a place with low atmospheric density. One of the things MLB does, you know, we, along with Rawlings, try to make a very uniform product. And part of that, you know, we want the tradition of handmade baseball with traditional materials, and those are kind of hard to control. But one of the things we do is we try to keep that storage environment consistent across all parks. So we actually have humidors in all parks in Major League Baseball. Like a sponge, baseballs absorb moisture when they're in a moist environment, and they dry out when they're in a dried environment. The more water they hold, the heavier they get. So it changes properties of the ball, like, not only how far it carries, but also how squishy it is, how bouncy it is when it would hit. So we tried the best we can to. To be consistent in how we handle the ball.

[Emily Gracie]

What about the bats? I mean, they're made of wood, right? So are those morphine, too?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah. So, you know, bats, like any collision object, are gonna change the. With temperature more than anything, but we don't. We don't have a ton of guidelines around bats. They're. They're a little bit less sensitive to environmental variation than the balls are.

[Emily Gracie]

So tell me about how winds are affecting the ball, specifically, because there are, like, mathematical equations, right?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah. And I think we done. We do a good job of measuring lots of things about baseball. You know, we track balls really well. We track players. We have lots of data and stats around everything. But one thing we didn't do very well is, is measure wind. So all these years, we've understood a little bit about the wind that makes the flags blow in one direction or another, the prevailing winds at some ballpark, but we didn't really understand exactly what was going on around the field of play. So in the wind shelter created by the stands, we didn't know that very well. So more recently, Emily, we contracted with this company called Weather Applied Metrics, and that's what they do. They're basically, you know, you can see the prevailing wind at a stadium, but you can't see what's going on inside that's affecting the ball. Instead of measuring that, we still can't measure that very well. But Weather Applied Metrics can model it. So they have a really good 3D model of what the stadium looks like, what buildings that surround the stadium look like in terms of, you know, fluid dynamics. And they can calculate pretty much every possible direction and magnitude to figure out how the wind interacts with the stadium and affects home runs and pitches. So the first year where we had this at every single park in Major League baseball was in 2023. So we, you know, every time there was a pitch, every time there was a hit, we had calculated wind impact and weather impact for that play. So all that, put all that data together, we start understanding why venues play the way they do and other things that affect the, the, you know, the events we see on field.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay. And they've been at this for years because I remember going to a conference, like many years ago and talking to one of their meteorologists about this model. But MLB just kind of got into the business of taking on this model and applying it to the ballpark. So can you take me through the process of what that was like? Because you did kind of a testing process first, right? On a few of the ballparks.

[Clay Nunley]

Before 2023, we did some pilot parks. So Weather Applied Metrics was in a handful of parks, and that told us what was possible. So you could see how much a hit can be impacted by wind and how much pitchers, at least in that venue, could be affected by wind. We didn't understand how it worked in aggregate. So we started out looking at this data in a few parks, and we can see examples of a home run being pushed a long ways by wind or a fly ball being pushed you know, upwards of 100ft first for one play. So we started to get an idea of the magnitude of the impact of wind, which we, we could have guessed, you know, qualitatively, but we can never really calculate quantitatively.

[Emily Gracie]

What's really cool too, is like this, the specifics of each ballpark. So I'm curious which ballparks you piloted in and then kind of the differences you saw there. Did anything really stand out from the different ballparks based on, like, their shape or structure or what's around them?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, that's the interesting part, I think, is because one of the pilot parks was Wrigley, and Wrigley's very old park, and it's built into a neighborhood, so it's not surrounded by parking lots. It is, you know, very close to a giant body of water that dominates weather in that region, but it's also in a neighborhood. It's probably not the tallest structure in Wrigleyville. So Wynn interacts with all the buildings around Wrigley. And then of course, the actual ballpark itself, the thing about Wrigley that stood out was the variation in wind direction. So other parks. The other really interesting park is San Francisco because it's got a very, very strong wind, the strongest wind of any park. But it's also consistent. Like every single night there's the wind coming in off the ocean, making everyone in the, in the crowd freeze. But it also has very, very persistent effects on, on pitching and hitting, but effects on pitching there that are so consistent that changes the, the behavior of pitching at the park. So those are like the two of the pilot parks that are different. One park has really strong winds that are always in the same direction. Then Wrigley has really strong winds also that can come from any direction and change the character of the game based on what, what direction it comes from.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, and so then last year was the first year with all the ballparks. What did you notice last year? Anything interesting stand out to you there? That. That surprised you?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, I think the most important thing about getting all parks involved is there's more stories to tell for our broadcast partners. But also it gave proper context so we could understand what's typical and what's not typical. The, the. All the other parks that we got filled in that context. And we could see which parks have persistent outliers, which parks benefit a right handed pitcher versus a left handed pitcher when it comes to breaking, breaking pitches in their movement, and which parks can have a headwind and which parts have just really strong tailwind there's another piece of this and it's the drag piece of it. Like we, we always, we publish what is called the, like the apparent drag or the effective drag of the baseball. We try to adjust for temperature and pressure and air density and all these things. But that algorithm or that, that formula doesn't account for wind. And we never calculated wind until now. And what we saw from the data was parks that have significant wind have much lower apparent drag coefficient because they're being pushed by that wind. That's between pitcher's mound to plate. And that, that was something where there was some kind of suspicion of, yeah, wind does have an effect on the variation of the apparent drag, but we didn't really know how clear that correlation was.

[Emily Gracie]

Where is this being used as far as. Because it seems like it, it impacts everybody. It impacts, you know, pitchers, batters, fans, coaches, umps. So I'm curious how this data is used. Is it used to forecast, is it used in plays or is it used kind of just in broadcasting and, and after the fact?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, so that it's got a lot of great, great uses. And we're still finding more. But I think it started out, you know, baseball clubs, analytics departments are pretty famous for just trying to find every scrap of data they can to get a competitive advantage. So the more they know about wind, the more they know about what fly balls are going to do, the better they can prepare and make, make tactics for their defense. The other thing they do is they can better evaluate players if they understand the impact of the environment. And that goes for altitude and wind. You just want to have, have a very consistent evaluation of talent and not attribute or detract talent from, from environmental conditions. As a league, we like to use it because we, we want to tell the story of what's going on in a particular park on a particular night. You know, we've got very interesting plays that wind affected and pushed the ball and should change it from a home run to an out. You know, those are, those are good stories. Anytime there's significant wind that impacts a play, we want to be able to visualize that, tell our fans that story. The other place that we use the data is. Yeah, is it forecasting? For example, we basically have the model of what we think the, the wind is going to do. This is something weather applied metrics generates and they'll have, you know, standard trajectories to left field to center field to right field and they can tell you what the typical deflection of those hits will be days in Advance. That helps all kinds of people who are interest, interested in predicting the future, which a lot of baseball industry is, is interested in.

[Emily Gracie]

Meteorologists too.

[Clay Nunley]

Meteorologists too? Yeah.

[Emily Gracie]

It seems so local though. I'm surprised that days in advance you can get accurate information like that on such a local level. Is it, is it changing? Is it constantly updating though, as the game gets closer?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, and weather plyometrics is great at this. They start out with, you know, understanding what the probable prevailing conditions are going to be and then they can derive their, their in game model from that. And then as the game gets closer, they'll update it based on, you know, better data or better forecast so it keeps getting updated and gets better and better up until game day.

[Emily Gracie]

Have you heard any stories from players who have made real use of this and really improved their game based on this information?

[Clay Nunley]

Weather Applied Metrics actually has old players as part of their team. And so that, that's kind of how the idea came about. You know, Brett, Brett Jackson is, was a former baseball player who played in Wrigley quite a bit. And his very insightful initial thought is the ball's not obeying what the flags are telling us. It really speaks to how hard it is to play outfield in Major league baseball. I mean, I think it's really hard to hit a major league baseball, but it's also hard to catch one if you're an outfield. And a ball can be pushed by wind up to 100ft depending on this trajectory. It's hard to become a machine and track the baseball and catch it.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, so you're forecasting, you're looking at the future, but you're also looking at the past and kind of doing some deep dives here into some past situations. Because I was reading your article there about Ted Williams and Fenway. So can you take me through this controversy? I know players are kind of green with this whole he hit the ball, what was it, 502ft back in 1946. So take me through how this data that you're looking at now is helping to solve old mysteries like that.

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, I might digress on this one because it's my favorite thing to talk about when it comes to baseball. But luckily we've got this ballpark in Boston that has persisted for over a hundred years and they have one seat in the outfield that's painted red. For anyone who's not familiar with that concept, ted Williams in 1946, in June of 1946 hit a ball that hit a fan in the head it was sitting in that seat. In this case, it was really far away from the plate. And estimates back at the time, you know, went from like 450 to 500ft. And no one knew if it really happened or how far it went. But more recently, we've got really good geospatial data parks from LIDAR measurements, and we can see that that seat actually is 495ft away from home plate, and it's 30ft off the ground. So we have a really good measurement of where that seat is. And it seemed impossible for anyone to hit a ball that far because that ball.

[Emily Gracie]

What's like a normal. Like a really good home run today? How far would it go?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, like 450 foot home run is. Is kind of a headline.

[Emily Gracie]

Top notch. Okay. Okay, so 502 seems ridiculous.

[Clay Nunley]

Well, we've had some 500 foot home runs. I think we've had a handful in the Statcast era when we've been tracking home runs, but Ted Williams home run would have gone about 530ft. And we've never. We've never measured anything close to that in the stat cast error, which is why it's controversial. But the big revelation that we got from weather, applied metrics, and looking at historical, you know, stadium architecture was in 1946, Fenway park was actually much shorter. It was about 40ft in terms of its wind barrier. And also, conveniently, at that time, there was a massive storm in the northeast that day, and winds were measured during the day, over 25 miles an hour. So that still happens today, but it never happens to a park as short as Fenway was in 1946. So, long story short, Ted hit a ball really hard, and it got up into this unabated stream of winds going super fast almost immediately. And that wind carried it all the way to that red seat in right field. And that ball, like we say now, would have gone 530ft. But now all parks are built up really high to accommodate lots of seats. And the bigger parks provide this big wind barrier that kind of shield all the action from wind. So now it's almost impossible to get a ball to be carried by wind that far. But it wasn't in 1946, so completely plausible.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, so, well, Clay, you're on your way to becoming a forensic meteorologist. What do. Are there any other scenarios like that that you want to kind of dissect and dig into? Anything else that stands out to you?

[Clay Nunley]

There's a couple of other things that we found from last year that are like more like persistent trends. The other, like conspiracy part theory I like to think about is the greatest game ever pitched. And that's Kerry Wood in 1998. He struck out 20 people. And if you see the video from this game, you'll see that his movement just looks amazing. Like his pitches move like wiffle balls. This whole game, he strikes out 20 Astros, and it seems incredible. And the thing that, that made me at least start thinking about if that game was wind impacted was the fact that Wrigley is one of the only places that can have a pitcher headwind. It's relatively small and it's in a very complex and windy environment typically. So it's one of the places that we can see pitcher headwinds routinely. Usually we still see tailwinds there, but we can see them there. And that day when Kerry Wood was pitching, the prevailing conditions were right to present headwinds. Headwinds and tailwinds. For pitchers, tailwinds increase the apparent velocity of a pitch because it doesn't slow down as much, it gets to the plate faster. But headwinds will slow down a pitch, but also create more movement. So your breaking ball breaks more, your sliders break more, and your fastballs ride a little higher. So I think most pitchers would prefer more movement than. Than speed when it comes to wind impact. But that's all to say the weather situation that day in 1998 for Kerry woods, the greatest game ever pitched were optimal for pitcher headwinds and a little bit of amplified movement. That's not to take anything away from Kerry Wood, because that game is incredible and he's incredible pitcher. But the environment was also cooperating that day.

[Emily Gracie]

This almost feels like now a game of stats, and it's feeling like very Moneyball to me, where, you know, with the right information, like, the game could be played very, very well. Is that something you see in the future where, like, the weather is going to be accounted for a lot more than it currently is and really factored into decision making when it comes to the plays?

[Clay Nunley]

I'd like to be able to say that I really think players dominate what happens on the field. And all data can do is help prepare them for what might happen. But players and talent and their instincts and the decisions they make in split seconds is always going to be more important and more valuable. We can really exhaust and analyze every piece of available data as analysts, as club analysts, but really the players are the ones who are going to control this long term.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay. I grew up in New England, so I grew up going to Fenway that was kind of my home ballpark. But then as an adult, I moved to the Baltimore area and so I spent a lot of time at Camden Yards. Is there anything you can tell me that's interesting about Camden Yards as far as winds?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, I was actually looking at our LIDAR scan of Baltimore recently, and it's unique. It's. It is. It is, well, barrier by the stands, but there's also a giant warehouse out in right field that creates another barrier like the. I think the idea is that most outfields are more open to receive wind currents, but Baltimore is uniquely closed off because of that giant and, well, well barriered warehouse in right field. So it's. For an outdoor park, it's kind of windshielded more than most. So if you look at its data in aggregate, you can see that it's. Even though the prevailing winds are pretty strong, the winds that affect hits and pitches are actually relatively small compared to other.

[Emily Gracie]

Yeah, it is close to the water, too. Okay, what. What other weather elements do you foresee in the future being factored in? Or is just wind the big one, so we're just going to stick with that? Or do you. Do you foresee weather? Applied mag trucks doing other modeling of different weather elements?

[Clay Nunley]

I think in the. And I'm speaking for them, you know, out of turn. I think for. For baseball, air density is enormous, is enormously important. Wind is enormously important, and those are things that we're just starting to get a better handle on. But the more we play in other venues, like we play in Mexico City at an elevation of 7,000ft, as an ex. As a, you know, kind of a jewel event, and that balls carry really well when the air is that thin. So it'll help clubs, I think, design parks based on the environment they're in so that they can have at least the run environment that they think is appropriate for their team and for the league. So it'll help before parks are built, make sure that they're facing the right way or the right size. I think baseball is going to exhaust what we can do with weather. I think other sports will benefit. Like, for example, I think football, you know, obviously the football is bigger and presents a bigger wind cross section. You know, I can't help but look at Soldier Field right next to Lake Michigan and think that the wind has something to do with throwing a football in. In Soldier at Soldier Field. So I think other sports will benefit the more they use this, though.

[Emily Gracie]

I did a podcast on golf and weather recently, and there's a lot of parallels There, you know, just given the difference in golf courses. And then also the, you know, he was saying the wind was definitely the big factor there, too.

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, we, I think. And weather plyometrics does do stuff for, for golf. Like golf, it matters a lot. The, the, the hard part about golf is being able to model trees because they're so complex. They're not just. You can't assume that a tree is a cube. It's a little bit more complex than that. So modeling trees on golf courses, I think is a little bit hard and a little bit. Takes a little bit more computation, but it really does affect things because the balls, you know, golf ball spin really fast, velocity is much higher, so those aerodynamic forces are coming to play quite a bit.

[Emily Gracie]

Clay, is there anything else you want to add about your role as MLB scientist or anything about weather Applied Metrics?

[Clay Nunley]

Yeah, my. My job is great, so if you want a job like me, try to think about math and baseball and weather. Applied metrics is great. Like, it's. It's great. It's born out of a really, a really pure idea, and they've got some really smart people to help execute it. So it's a good company and I think they're going to expand into other sports and any place that benefits from understanding the impact of the environment on sport.

[Emily Gracie]

Off the Radar is a production of the National Weather Desk.

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New episodes publish every Tuesday.

Thank you to Morgan Adsett from Fox 45 in Baltimore and Clay Nunley from the MLB for joining me today. Thanks to the National Weather Desk and Sinclair Broadcast Group for their ongoing support of the podcast. I'm meteorologist Emily Gracie. Make it a great day.