Podcast Summary: "Can Weather Sway the Election?"

Off the Radar
Host: Emily Gracey
Guest: Dr. Robert Stein, Professor of Political Science at Rice University
Release Date: November 5, 2024

Introduction

In the episode titled "Can Weather Sway the Election?" hosted by Emily Gracey of Off the Radar, the discussion delves into the intricate relationship between weather conditions and electoral outcomes. Gracey is joined by Dr. Robert Stein, a renowned political scientist, to explore how various weather phenomena—from rain and snow to catastrophic hurricanes—can influence voter turnout and, consequently, election results.

Historical Impact of Weather on Elections

Dr. Stein begins by emphasizing the longstanding influence of weather on elections, stating, "Weather has impacted every election since the founding of the Republic." (06:44). He references the 2012 election during Hurricane Sandy, noting a significant decrease in voter turnout in states affected by the hurricane, particularly those without extensive in-person early voting options. Historically, adverse weather conditions on Election Day have tended to benefit Republican candidates, attributed to their voter base being older, wealthier, and more likely to vote regardless of weather disturbances. "When it rains or snows on Election Day, there's a dividend for Republicans." (00:55)

Modern Shifts with Early Voting

The advent and expansion of in-person early voting have altered the traditional weather-elections dynamic. Dr. Stein explains, "Starting in 2000 through, of course, 2024, many, many more states have adopted in-person early voting. And as a consequence of that, particularly in the south and southwest, when there has been bad weather, the dividend has been not only reduced but almost reversed." (08:34). This shift allows voters to cast their ballots before inclement weather can affect Election Day turnout, diminishing the Republican advantage previously enjoyed during poor weather conditions.

Mail-In Voting and Weather Effects

While early voting has mitigated some weather-related impacts, mail-in voting presents a different scenario. Dr. Stein asserts, "Mail in voting doesn't work to remove the weather effect." (08:38). He explains that in many states, voters must request a mail ballot, and the process remains susceptible to weather-related disruptions. Even states with all-mail voting require voters to be proactive in requesting ballots, which does not entirely eliminate the influence of weather on voter participation.

Impact of Catastrophic Weather Events on Turnout

The conversation shifts to the effects of catastrophic weather events, such as hurricanes Helene and Milton, on voter turnout. Dr. Stein discusses how such disasters can severely impair voter ability to participate in elections. "These are people whose homes have been destroyed, who don't have anywhere to stay. They've been displaced. So where do they vote?" (10:37). The destruction of polling places, the displacement of voters, and the lack of poll workers can lead to significant reductions in voter turnout in affected areas, potentially swaying election results in closely contested regions.

Potential Changes in Election Scheduling

In light of these challenges, Dr. Stein suggests reconsidering the timing of elections to avoid periods prone to severe weather. "We need to plan for it... Maybe we should start thinking about holding our elections at a different time of year." (15:20). Adjusting election schedules could help minimize the impact of adverse weather, ensuring higher voter turnout and more accurate reflection of public will.

Heat Waves and Voter Turnout

Addressing concerns beyond precipitation and cold snaps, the discussion turns to heat waves. Dr. Stein mentions that extreme heat does not have a significant historical impact on voter turnout. "I've looked at weather as in temperature in that paper... The short answer is no." (15:45). He notes that while heat can be uncomfortable, it hasn't been a substantial deterrent to voting compared to other weather factors like flooding or hurricanes.

Predictions and Concluding Remarks

When forecasting the upcoming election, Dr. Stein points to battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where weather-related voter turnout could be pivotal. He highlights the potential for reduced turnout in Florida and the Carolinas due to recent hurricanes, which may narrow margins in these states. "I do think the margins will be much smaller because of turnout." (18:16). Despite these insights, Dr. Stein remains cautious, acknowledging the complexity of factors influencing election outcomes beyond weather alone.

Notable Quotes

• "Weather has impacted every election since the founding of the Republic." – Dr. Robert Stein (06:44)
• "When it rains or snows on Election Day, there's a dividend for Republicans." – Dr. Robert Stein (00:55)
• "Mail in voting doesn't work to remove the weather effect." – Dr. Robert Stein (08:38)
• "We need to plan for it... Maybe we should start thinking about holding our elections at a different time of year." – Dr. Robert Stein (15:20)
• "I've looked at weather as in temperature in that paper... The short answer is no." – Dr. Robert Stein (15:45)
• "I do think the margins will be much smaller because of turnout." – Dr. Robert Stein (18:16)

Conclusion

Emily Gracey's episode with Dr. Robert Stein provides a comprehensive examination of how weather conditions can influence electoral outcomes. From historical precedents to modern voting practices, the discussion underscores the multifaceted ways in which Mother Nature intersects with the democratic process. The insights offered highlight the need for adaptive measures in election planning to ensure fair and accurate representation, regardless of unforeseen weather challenges.

This summary is based on the transcript of the podcast episode "Can Weather Sway the Election?" from Off the Radar, produced by the National Weather Desk.