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- [00:01]
Emily Gracey
The salty sea air, luxury amenities, entertainment, exotic destinations, these all make cruising a dream vacation for many. But for some, that vacation can turn into a nightmare when the ship encounters dangerous weather. In May of 2023, the Carnival Sunshine was returning to Charleston, South Carolina from the Bahamas when it encountered a powerful storm, making conditions on board terrifying and dangerous for the passengers and crew. Video from the passengers show hallways flooded with water and floating debris.
- [00:33]
Craig Setzer
You pretty much just had to lay on your bed and hold on because.
- [00:37]
Crystal Shepherd
You couldn't stand up straight.
- [00:38]
Emily Gracey
Crystal shepherd and her family say it was hard to even stand up, and the only way they felt safe was just to stay in their room.
- [00:45]
Crystal Shepherd
It was rocking back and forth really hard.
- [00:49]
Emily Gracey
And it's not just storms that cruise ships have to look out for. In 2022, a Norwegian cruise got cut short when it hit an iceberg near Alaska. The Norwegian sun cruise ship has made.
- [01:00]
Crystal Shepherd
It to Seattle for repairs after colliding.
- [01:03]
Emily Gracey
With what was described as part of an iceberg on Saturday. Today, I'm going off the radar and diving into the high pressure career of forecasting the high seas with Royal Caribbean's chief meteorologist Craig Setzer. He'll give us an inside look of what he does every day, keeping 64 ships across the world safe from harmful weather.
- [01:23]
Crystal Shepherd
I literally eat, breathe, sleep, dream all about it, and I'm always checking on the ship to see where it is and talking to the captain and saying, you know, I think we need to go farther south. I think this, this storm's getting bigger than expected. And let's figure out the best way to keep you out of the storm and keep our guests happy.
- [01:42]
Emily Gracey
I'm meteorologist Emily Gracey, and you're listening to off the Radar, a production of the National Weather Desk. On the show, we dig deep into topics about weather, climate, the ocean, space, and much more.
- [01:52]
Craig Setzer
Our goal is to help you better.
- [01:53]
Emily Gracey
Understand the weather and to love it as as we do. Hi, everyone. I'm your host, Emily Gracie. Today I'm digging into the vault of past episodes and resurrecting one from last year that was very popular. We're hitting the high seas with Craig Setzer, former TV meteorologist turned cruise liner forecaster. I've seen him present several times about the work he does, and I'm always so impressed by his skill of maritime forecasting. Even though it's summertime and today's show is a repeat. Make sure you hit subscribe on the show because we have many new episodes coming out this summer. In fact, you've heard me thank my Associate producer Brian Petras every week at the end of every episode. Well, coming up, Brian is going to be guest hosting an episode and it's going to be awesome because it's going to be all about sharks. Just a heads up, there's some time sensitive information in this episode. You may hear us talk about recent weather events, but those are from last year. So bear that in mind when you're listening. Thanks for listening to the show and I hope you enjoy this fan favorite Cruise Forecasting with Craig Setzer.
- [03:03]
Craig Setzer
Craig, let's talk about cruise forecasting. This is a really cool job. A job that many people may not even know exists, but so important. I went on a cruise last year, weather was definitely an issue. So can you start by telling me a little bit about your job and what your responsibilities are and what like a day in your life looks like?
- [03:25]
Crystal Shepherd
So most of our ships, in fact all of our ships use just basically a weather vendor for their day to day weather forecast and most of the time the weather's really good. I come in when there are what we call critical ship deviations which means they might have to change their itinerary or a port that they're going to might be impacted by the weather and, and we have to figure out are they going to miss that port and if they're going to miss that port, is it going to impact the guests? So I speak directly with the captains on the ships, they reach out to me when there's a big weather deal. Otherwise they can handle everything on their own.
- [04:01]
Craig Setzer
Interesting. Yeah, I bet they have a good amount of weather background. Kind of like pilots just because it's what they do, it's their entire lives to, to be good at this. Are you the only meteorologist on the for Royal Caribbean or do you have a whole team of meteorologists?
- [04:16]
Crystal Shepherd
You know it's surprising. I'm the only meteorologist in house meteorologist in the entire industry. And unfortunately in the maritime world, I know it's shocking, right? In the maritime world there's kind of this attitude that I think is, is a little bit lagging the industry which is it was the weather, what could we do? And I'm like no, no, no, no, no. We've gotten really good at predicting the weather and we can take our weather margins, let's say, and, and kind of shrink them down so that normally when a ship might get into a storm, I can say nope, we need to go a little bit farther away from it. And when there's a looks like a storm's coming and I Say, no, I think we can make it, then that kind of like gives, Gives better, I don't know, safety and even efficiency to, to our ships.
- [05:04]
Craig Setzer
Interesting. So you have to have a huge amount of, I mean, you have the weather knowledge, but a huge amount of. I don't think there's maritime forecasting expertise too. Did you have to do additional training for that? Where did that come from? Because I don' think I could just look at forecasting out over the ocean and have that ability right away.
- [05:21]
Crystal Shepherd
Right. So I, I lived. I've lived in Miami for a quarter century, and I used to own a sailboat and I would race that sailboat. And I even got a captain's license, so I kind of got some of my nautical background there. And that really helps when it comes to speaking with the captains, talking to them about going to a great circle route versus a, a rum line or an optimized route, things like that. Port, port, starboard, fore and aft. I know all of those terms, so I can speak more easily with, with those who are using my forecast. But the captains usually use me or really use me as a second set of eyes. Like, they'll look at the weather charts, they'll reach out and they'll say, craig, I think we might have some big seas here. And even though our ships are very, very redundant and very safe, we are, our passengers are our cargo, basically. And we want them to have an enjoyable cruise and voyage, too. We don't want it to be something where everybody is not feeling well. So my sensitivity for the ships is, are we going to keep it, of course, safe first? Which is, without question, two. Or at least we're going to make it an enjoyable voyage and enjoyable vacation for the, for the passengers.
- [06:28]
Craig Setzer
Okay, this makes more sense now. Okay, so I was on a cruise last year. I won't name any names, but rhymes was smartable and it was a rough ride. We were out there, there was a storm, we made it to one of the ports, and then we were delayed in another one. And then we just spent a day at sea kind of just rocking and rolling. And the whole time I was thinking, surely there's somebody who is a meteorologist who is helping make these decisions, but clearly not so. It seems so crucial to have you in this role and like a huge advantage for one cruise liner over another to know that there is kind of discomfort, but it's also going to be so much pressure. So, like, are you making the decisions whether to cancel a port of call or is that somebody else's decision and you're just kind of advising like, yeah, you could, but, like, you're going to be really bumping into the dock there.
- [07:23]
Crystal Shepherd
Right. So ultimately, the captain has the final say. He's responsible for the vessel. And those aboard the vessel, I come in when and discuss with the captain, which is great. These. These folks are super smart. They really know their stuff. And so we'll discuss what maybe will delay an arrival. Maybe we'll come in early. But what you described as your unhappy experience is kind of my worst nightmare, and I live with that. When I've got a ship that. That might be going through some bigger seas or has a crossing or something like that, I. I literally eat, breathe, sleep, dream all about it. And I'm always checking on the ship to see where it is and talking to the captain and saying, you know, I think we need to go farther south. I think this. This storm's getting bigger than expected and things like that. It's funny because there's this quote Wayne Gretzky, the famous hockey player said, which was, I don't follow the puck. I look to where the puck is going. And that's kind of the way ship weather routing is. I don't look where the ship is, I look where it's going and how the weather is going to evolve over where that ship is going to be. Or in this case, I'm responsible for 64 ships, so it's a busy job. So I don't really have a typical day in the life of Craig. It's. Some days are the moment I wake up to, the moment I go to bed, it's ship deviations, routing, things like that. And some days the weather's calm, and I'm like, now I can. I can do other things for a change.
- [08:50]
Craig Setzer
Yeah, yeah. Kind of life with a lot of meteorologists.
- [08:53]
Crystal Shepherd
Right.
- [08:54]
Craig Setzer
The ups and downs. Okay, so you said 64 ships. How on any given day, how many are out at once?
- [09:01]
Crystal Shepherd
So all of our ships. And this is where it becomes a challenge. They're global, so I've learned about, like, all different parts of the globe. In fact, what I've had to do is learn the Southern hemisphere, too, because we have ships in Australia and New Zealand, and I basically take a weather map and turn it upside down, and I'm like, okay, now we're in the Southern hemisphere, so everything's going different directions and stuff. And that. That's been a challenge. But I've learned more about, like, maritime geography around the world than I ever thought I would know. I'm a floor. I'M based in Florida, so, you know, this is my backyard, but now, like, the Caribbean is my backyard. The western Atlantic is my backyard. The Mediterranean now and the, the western Pacific, those are areas that I'm, I'm constantly learning and, and trying to get better at.
- [09:47]
Craig Setzer
Okay, so on a quiet day, are there sometimes like no ships out? And then on a busy day, are there like dozens of ships out?
- [09:54]
Crystal Shepherd
Right, so we always have ships out. It's a 24, 7 job, but, but I see it as quite parts of the globe. And so right now, for this moment, I'm in a quiet part of the globe, but I'm looking, you know, is there going to be a storm in the north Atlantic that's going to impact a crossing that we have on the ship that's coming from the Mediterranean? Most of my ships, during the wintertime in the Alaskan ships, they relocate in the southern ocean, Australia and New Zealand. And most of my Mediterranean ships come over into the Caribbean. It's good in a way because they're all in one location and it's easy to kind of, you know, it's like sheep. They're like all together so I can keep an eye on them. But the problem is, is if I have a big storm that's impacting the gulf, the Mediterranean and the, the east coast of the US that all of my ships are impacted. And so then it's like, okay, let's take you first, you second, you third, and let's figure out the best way to keep you out of the storm and keep our guests happy.
- [10:53]
Craig Setzer
So a couple weeks ago, there was like some very turbulent weather in the Gulf of Mexico. That low that formed and then kind of moved up the coast and there were ships being rerouted. It's that it just going off of my memory. So I'm curious what your experience was like with that. Was that chaotic? Were you having to make the decision to bring in ships with that low?
- [11:13]
Crystal Shepherd
Yeah, it is very. What happens is, is that because our ships are foreign flagged, which means they're registered in other countries. We have a thing called the Jones act which applies to our ships. And the Jones act means if you sail from a U. S. Port, you must visit a foreign port before you return to a U. S. Port. So I can't have a ship go from say, Port Canaveral to Fort Lauderdale and back to port Canaveral. They have to go to a foreign port. We have destinations in the Bahamas, but not a lot. And so if we have a big low pressure system moving across the Bahamas. All of a sudden I can't send any of my east coast ships to the Bahamas. They have to go maybe south to Mexico or to Haiti or the Dominican Republic or, or other places. So it's, it's this moving pieces kind of game. And then once you start moving a few ships, you've cut off the, the access of other ships to go to those destinations because those ships are already going to be docked at, at those locations. So now you're thinking, well where, where can I send another ship and can he make it and get back in time that it doesn't mess up the next itinerary? So it's this constant challenge of it's not managing chaos, but it's almost on the edge of managing chaos.
- [12:33]
Craig Setzer
Why does that act exist? Is there, there's got to be a reason for that.
- [12:37]
Crystal Shepherd
Back in the 1880s, there was the provision to perfect the US maritime industry, merchant marines. And then back in World War I when much of the U. S fleet was impacted from the war, they, the, the government didn't want foreign ships coming in and taking away American jobs and American naval interest. But the, the act has been preserved and it remains and we kind of just live with it. You know, it's just one of the things that I work around because the downside is like, like a, a and it's managed by the Customs and Border Protection, cpb, cbp. If we miss a foreign port, it could be a multi million dollar fine. So we always are very careful to make sure we get our foreign ports in.
- [13:27]
Craig Setzer
Wow. So, okay, so you have your hands full with like everything going on globally, weather wise. What about, are you ever having to forecast for the ports themselves? Even kind of inconvenience weather like raining on people as they're waiting in line? Or like in Charleston this past week, people came back from a cruise and all of their cars had been completely damaged due to flooding.
- [13:49]
Crystal Shepherd
So yeah. So the weather that I deal with is twofold. It's one what we call voyage weather, which is the weather while you're underway, while you're at sea. And then that's where I try to avoid, or we try to avoid, I should say big seas because the, the ship really can handle the wind no problem. But, but as the seas get bigger, the voyage becomes more uncomfortable and things like that. So, so that's, that's one of the, the aspects of it is the voyage weather. And most of our itineraries are pretty much baked in the cake. So there's not like, oh well, let's just Go over here? No, we kind of still have to go in a certain, certain from port to port or, or some itinerary that's already planned. The other side is what I call port weather and that is where can we get into that port? Are the winds going to allow us to get into the port? Maybe it's a tendering port where we drop anchor and then we have little ships, tenders come alongside and they take the passengers or the guests to a port. In that case the waves can be fairly small, maybe six or eight feet, but the passengers can't get off of our ship, which is just sitting gently and get onto this little vessel, this tinder, which is going up and down. So the port weather is, is something that I'm always watching to rain and stuff like that. In many ways that's the least of my worries. It's the waves and in many cases it's also the wind.
- [15:08]
Craig Setzer
So I imagine these ships are kind of diverse as well in like size and age and capability. Have you spent much time on the ships themselves or even taken a cruise to kind of get the experience of a passenger?
- [15:21]
Crystal Shepherd
So when I joined Royal Caribbean Group six months ago, it hasn't even been a year, the one thing I knew that I brought was a lot of meteorological experience. But I didn't have the experience of how can, how will the ships use my knowledge. And I didn't want to disrupt the workflow that they had. So I did these short what I call work cruises where I spent a lot of time on the bridge watching the officers, watching how the captain and everybody handled what I was providing and make sure that I was giving them something that wasn't going to. Basically it was kind of the rule, do no harm, give them tools that they can work with but don't upset kind of the apple cart and, and make their decision making process disrupted in any way.
- [16:05]
Craig Setzer
Did you hit up like you know, a pina colada or maybe a water slide while you were there?
- [16:11]
Crystal Shepherd
So the first time I got on I thought, well, I'm on the ship, I guess I'm working 24 7. And I literally worked, I worked remotely from my laptop and then it was also on the bridge a lot. And then I talked to the folks which we call shoreside, so their shipboard and their shoreside parts of the operation. And I said when I'm on a ship I don't have to work 24 7. And they're like, no, no, no, you're off the clock for part of the time too. So I've taken some longer cruises now on different ships just to learn how the different ships manage the weather and their tolerances, their thresholds. And yes, I had a pina colada after I got off my, off my day schedule.
- [16:48]
Craig Setzer
So did you get a feel for like how weather impacts everyone on the ship, like the passengers, but then also people who are like carrying plates in the dining room.
- [16:58]
Crystal Shepherd
So it's amazing how like in, in within Royal Caribbean Group there are all of these little gears that are turning and they're turning kind of in, in, in synchronicity, they're all moving together. So the, the ship itinerary, the fueling, the provisioning, the, the shore experiences, the air, airline flights coming in, the drive by drive in passengers, things like that, all of these pieces are moving together. And my little cog, the weather cog, if it kind of like jumps a little bit or, or stops or something, it impacts all these other things. So I'm painfully to an extent aware of how much impact the weather is on what's going on and I make all of my decisions very, very carefully. It's not like, you know, there's, there's this unfortunate joke in meteorology which is, oh, you can be wrong 50% this time and still keep your job. If I'm wrong one time we serve 6 million passengers a year. If I'm wrong one time we, for 1%, that's like 6,000 passengers who have had a miserable experience. So I, I, I literally have to feel like I have to be right every single time.
- [18:13]
Craig Setzer
Tell me the comparison between doing this and being a television meteorologist because you did that for so many years and then you've really kind of shifted past here and then you also have this forensic experience. So tell me, can you compare the different things and, and how they are similar and how they're different?
- [18:28]
Crystal Shepherd
So sure. So when they hired me, they said we want somebody who can do the operational meteorology, which means the forecasting, the predicting, things like that. But we also want somebody who can do public facing if it's needed, which means get on camera, describe to the guests or to whomever, here's the weather situation, here's what we're doing proactively and here's how we're going to salvage your vacation by not going to this place where the weather's going to be really bad. Instead we're going to go to this different place. And I, I wish there was something better we could do. But unfortunately this is, this is the weather situation. So they wanted somebody who could, who could speak to that. It's different from TV because, because I know exactly who my end users are. You know, it's the ships. It's not like I'm making a forecast and there's a golfer, there's a farmer, there's a boater, there's all this wide, wide variety of stakeholders. For me, there's a very, very focused and specific group of end users. And so in that, in that point it's, it's much more fun because I can really drill down and focus on, on that type of weather as opposed to, you know, somebody's always going to be unhappy if you're on tv, right?
- [19:41]
Craig Setzer
Yeah, for sure. Okay. You said six months you've been doing this. Any surprises pop up? Anything really shock you in that six month period that you didn't expect?
- [19:50]
Crystal Shepherd
I, you know what, for the first like five months, I think I was surprised or shocked or. Oh, I didn't expect that. Almost once a week we had a ship that was coming from Iceland to Canada. They were making what we call a crossing. So it was not part of their usual typical itinerary. And there was a big storm and I was speaking with the captain and I said, well, can you, you know, we need you to go fast to get ahead of the storm as it's developing, but if needed, can you go to Greenland as like a port of refuge? And he said, well, no, because of icebergs. I'm like, oh, of course icebergs. Didn't think of that, that side of it.
- [20:31]
Craig Setzer
Or we learned nothing from Titanic.
- [20:34]
Crystal Shepherd
Right. Right now we didn't want it to be the Titanic cruise. Fortunately, the vessel turned out fine, the cruise turned out fine. And the passengers actually liked a little bit of excitement from the bigger seas that they were, they were European passengers. And, and there was one case where I had a ship coming back to Tampa and because of Hurricane Adalia, there had been water that had come into the bay, Tampa Bay, and it raised the water level and our ship couldn't get under the Sunshine Skyway Bridge until the water drained out. It's called the air gap between the bottom of the bridge and the top of the mast on the ship. And I was like, I didn't expect that. So just all these different things, you kind of never think of that are all, all at play.
- [21:15]
Craig Setzer
Do you think that this is going to become a trend? That there, that other cruise liners will get on board here and hire meteorologists or that Royal Caribbean will expand the team?
- [21:23]
Crystal Shepherd
So Royal Caribbean has been so gracious and, and giving giving me the opportunity to hire a second meteorologist. So I'm literally doubling my department size within six months. Thrilled about that. And. And actually, I've been able to show that there is value sometimes when our ships miss what's called a turnport. This is where the guests depart and new guests come on. It's very, very expensive, and it's not good for the guests either. And so I'm working on tools to. To make deciding when we're going to miss a turnport less. Less costly or more accurate, I should say. And that means that, you know, even though it looks like we can't go there, we're going to be able to go there, which is good. Or vice versa. If I think that some of our port calls are going to be missed, then we can plan alternative ports. So we're not doing this, what they call cruise to nowhere or getting stuck at sea and. And having a miserable experience. So, I mean, the company, thankfully, is seeing value in what I'm doing, and it's nice. It's actually flattering to be, you know, doing meteorology where they're like, oh, good job. And I'm like, I never. I didn't hear. Hardly ever hear that in tv. Right. It's kind of a tough business. So. So that's good. It's funny because in my mind, people that I work with at the Port of Miami, they're like, craig, is it going to rain this afternoon? And I'm like, I'm not sure what's going on here, but I can tell you that on Allure and Liberty, there are going to be some showers. And also Symphony and Odyssey is looking great. And they're like, where are they? And I'm like, all different places. Far away. That's where my brain is.
- [22:59]
Craig Setzer
Craig sets her chief meteorologist for Royal Caribbe. Awesome title. Awesome job. Well deserved.
- [23:04]
Emily Gracey
And I hope you get a vacation.
- [23:06]
Craig Setzer
Sometime in the near future.
- [23:08]
Crystal Shepherd
Thank you so much, Emily.
- [23:12]
Craig Setzer
Off the Radar is a production of.
- [23:13]
Emily Gracey
The National Weather Desk.
- [23:15]
Craig Setzer
Make sure you're following the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes publish every Tuesday. If you have a cruiser in your life or someone who's interested in maritime forecasting, please share this episode with them. We'd also love you to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Let us know what you think of the show. You can also give me some ideas for future episodes. Big thanks to Craig Setzer for taking the time out of his busy schedule to join me today. I'm Meteorologist Emily Gracey. Make it a great day and happy New Year.