Groundhog Day: Shadow or Science?

Summary

Off the Radar: Groundhog Day – Shadow or Science?

Episode Release Date: January 28, 2025
Host: Emily Gracey, National Weather Desk Meteorologist

---

1. Introduction to Groundhog Day Tradition

In the episode titled "Groundhog Day: Shadow or Science?", host Emily Gracey delves into the age-old tradition of Groundhog Day, exploring its historical roots, cultural significance, and scientific implications. She sets the stage by describing the annual event held on February 2nd at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, where Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, predicts the forthcoming weather. Emily notes,

"If Phil sees his shadow and retreats into his burrow, we're in for six more weeks of winter. No shadow? Spring is just around the corner."
[00:00]

---

2. Perspectives from Former Meteorologists

Emily introduces former broadcast meteorologists Bernadette Woods Plackey and Shell Winkley, who now work with Climate Central. They share their insights on Groundhog Day from both a meteorological and climate science perspective.

a. The Role of Attribution Science

Bernadette discusses the concept of attribution science, explaining how it quantifies the influence of climate change on individual weather events. She emphasizes the importance of local and trusted voices in effectively communicating scientific information amidst the challenges posed by misinformation.

"We really need to focus on local voice and a trusted voice... to get the information that we need to get out."
[04:46]

Shell adds that attribution science helps in understanding and conveying the significance of weather patterns and extreme events to the public.

b. Communication Challenges at the AMS Conference

At the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting, the duo highlighted the struggle against misinformation, especially on social media. Bernadette recalls a poignant moment:

"How are we supposed to communicate with the next generation that isn't in 20 seconds while riding a skateboard...?"
[06:07]

Shell emphasizes the evolving methods of information consumption and the necessity to adapt communication strategies to reach and educate the public effectively.

---

3. Climate Change and Groundhog Day

Emily probes into the scientific accuracy of Phil's predictions in the context of a changing climate. Bernadette presents data indicating a warming trend:

"Since 1970, Punxsutawney Phil has predicted an early spring 16 times, compared to five times between 1897 and 1970... 93% of 244 cities analyzed have seen a warming trend in that six-week period."
[14:57]

She concludes that while Phil's predictions lean towards prolonged winter, the overarching climate data suggests an earlier onset of spring across most U.S. cities.

---

4. Personal Experiences and Observations

Bernadette and Shell share their personal takes on Groundhog Day, balancing skepticism with appreciation for the tradition's cultural impact.

Bernadette proudly identifies as a Phil loyalist:

"Punxsutawney Phil is the prognosticator of all prognosticators. You don't get that title just willy nilly."
[12:19]

Shell expresses a mixed sentiment, appreciating the festive aspect but personally favoring winter:

"I like snow. I like winter... But I'm here for the party."
[14:25]

Emily reflects on her evolving perspective, initially feeling overshadowed by the event during her time on morning news but later recognizing its role in celebrating weather and seasonal changes.

---

5. In-Depth Interview with Joe Mergo

Joe Mergo, the chief meteorologist at a TV station in Altoona, Pennsylvania, shares his extensive experience covering Groundhog Day for over two decades.

a. Historical Context and Evolution of the Event

Joe traces Groundhog Day back to its 19th-century German roots, noting how immigrants adapted the tradition to the local environment by choosing the groundhog over the European hedgehog. He highlights the transformation of Gobbler's Knob from a free-for-all party to a more structured and secure event post-2001.

"Phil has always been there, ever since the 1800s... He's treated pretty well."
[24:27]

b. The Inner Circle and Traditions

He explains the exclusive Inner Circle, dressed in top hats and tuxedos, responsible for managing Phil and the ceremonial aspects. While joking about its elitism, Joe appreciates their dedication to preserving the tradition.

"It's a small club... I'm honored to be an honorary member."
[35:07]

c. Memorable Experiences and Challenges

Joe recounts various incidents, from near mishaps with Phil to colorful crowd behaviors, illustrating the event's unpredictable and lively nature. One notable incident involved a governor attempting to pet Phil, narrowly avoiding a mishap:

"The governor almost lost a finger that day... They always handle him with protective gloves."
[31:17]

d. Scientific Relevance Beyond Tradition

Despite skepticism from some meteorologists, Joe emphasizes Groundhog Day's symbolic significance in marking the seasonal midpoint and fostering public interest in weather patterns.

"It's the Super Bowl of weather... It's a celebration day, more of celebrating weather and the changing seasons."
[27:33]

---

6. Conclusion

Emily Gracey wraps up the episode by appreciating the diverse perspectives on Groundhog Day, from cultural traditions to scientific discussions on climate change. She encourages listeners to view the event as both a fun celebration and an opportunity to engage with weather science. Emily also teasers the next segment featuring Joe Mergo, promising deeper insights into the event's history and its place in modern meteorology.

"Use it as an opportunity to learn something about the weather and our changing climate."
[17:15]

---

Notable Quotes:

• "If Phil sees his shadow and retreats into his burrow, we're in for six more weeks of winter."
  — Emily Gracey
  [00:00]

• "How are we supposed to communicate with the next generation that isn't in 20 seconds while riding a skateboard...?"
  — Ken Graham as cited by Bernadette Woods Plackey
  [06:07]

• "Punxsutawney Phil is the prognosticator of all prognosticators. You don't get that title just willy nilly."
  — Bernadette Woods Plackey
  [12:19]

• "It's the Super Bowl of weather... It's a celebration day, more of celebrating weather and the changing seasons."
  — Joe Mergo
  [27:33]

---

This episode of Off the Radar offers a comprehensive exploration of Groundhog Day, blending historical context, scientific analysis, and personal anecdotes to provide a multifaceted understanding of this unique American tradition.

Transcript

[Emily Gracie]

Every February 2nd in a tiny Pennsylvania town, thousands of people brave the pre dawn cold to watch a groundhog predict the weather. Yep, you heard that right. At Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, a group of distinguished gentlemen in top hats and tuxedos known as the Inner Circle ceremoniously wake up their resident prognosticator, Punxsutawney Phil. The rules are simple. If Phil sees his shadow and retreats into his burrow, we're in for six more weeks of winter. No shadow. Spring is just around the corner. The tradition dates back to 1887. Drawing from German folklore. What started as a small town celebration has grown into a three day festival complete with ice carving, chainsaw art and the fil fest. But this holiday can be a bit polarizing, especially among meteorologists.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I'm a Phil loyalist. He is the prognosticator of all prognosticators like you don't get that title just willy nilly like they don't give that to anybody. Okay? That's all I'm saying.

[Shell Winkley]

I mean, it's eroded.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

Give Phil a break. He's trying.

[Emily Gracie]

Today we are going off the radar with the real life Phil Connors to learn how this tradition began. We'll hear tales from Gobbler's Knob and learn the scientific relevance of one of America's oddest and most entertaining holidays. I'm meteorologist Emily Gracey, and you're listening to off the Radar, a production of the National Weather Desk. On the show, we dig deep into topics about weather, climate, the ocean, space, and much more. Our goal is to help you better understand the weather and to love it as much as we do. This time of year. A good hoodie is absolutely essential. And the American Giant Classic Full Zip hoodie is made to last a lifetime. With timeless style, heavyweight fleece and durable details. You can depend on it for years to come. Snag the hoodie that will bring you comfort for life. The American Giant Classic Full zip and save. 20% off your first order at american-giant.com. when you use code classic24 at checkout, that's 20% off your first order at American-Giant.com, code classic24. Happy Groundhog Day, everyone. Welcome to off the Radar. If you're a new listener, do me a favor. Thanks for checking us out, but please give us a follow on your favorite podcast platform. That way you'll be alerted of future episodes. So today I'm going to share an interview I did last year with Joe Mergo. Joe is the chief meteorologist at the TV station in Altoona, Pennsylvania. It's the home market to Punxsutawney, which means he covered this event year after year after year after year. Yeah, yeah, just like the movie. Well, not exactly like the movie. You'll see Joe shares all of the inside details about what actually goes on up at Gobbler's Knob, and he has some hilarious mishaps that he witnessed over the years. It's a very fun chat and I wanted to share it with you leading up to the big day this weekend. Before we get to Joe, I am talking to two other former broadcast meteorologists, Bernadette Woods Plackey and Shell Winkley. They both now work for a non profit group called Climate Central. I spent a lot of time with them both a couple of weeks ago at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, and I wanted to get their take on Groundhog Day, both as former forecasters and current climate scientists. Take a listen. Welcome to off the Radar. I have two not only colleagues, but also good friends with me today, so I'm super excited. There's this amazing community of former broadcast meteorologists, and these two are in it. I have Bernadette Woods Plackey and Shel Winkley with me today. Thank you guys for coming on the show.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

Yeah, happy to be here.

[Shell Winkley]

We are so excited to join you.

[Emily Gracie]

And I have seen you both recently because we were all in New Orleans last week for a very big conference that happens every January, the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting. How many people do you think were there? Do you guys have any idea?

[Shell Winkley]

The official numbers are in. And it was about 7,000 registered participants, the vast majority in person. There was a virtual component. I think it was a thousand or less.

[Emily Gracie]

Of course, you know that, Bernadette. Okay. And you guys were there doing some presentations too, right?

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

Yeah, that's right. So we, we really talked a lot about attribution science, kind of explaining what that is, how we've supported the media when it comes to their work on the communities they're working in, how attribution science really helps tell that story about climate change. And then Bernadette got to speak on a panel about Hurricane Helene, what we saw over 2024, and how the science really helps us understand this event and then events that could be coming, you know, as we continue on into 2025 as well.

[Emily Gracie]

Yeah, it was an amazing panel. It was really interesting to hear perspectives from people that were in Asheville and then also from Bernadette about the attribution Science and helping people better understand what that is. And I think, Shel, you and I maybe have some episodes coming up to talk about attribution science so people can understand it a little bit better too. But should we give them a one.

[Shell Winkley]

Liner first, though, just so they can follow along? Attribution science is a branch of climate science where we can now go in and quantify the role of climate change within individual weather events. And so that's the broad summary. But as you said, you two are going to dive deeper into how people are calculating that, how it's being applied, and what we're learning.

[Emily Gracie]

Can you attribute the groundhog to any sort of scientific accuracy when it comes to forecasting whole seasons?

[Shell Winkley]

That is not something that we have broken through with yet. So we'll put it on the list.

[Emily Gracie]

Get cranking on that. We need more information. Okay, so as far as the AMS conference, I feel like there are several takeaways. Did anything stand out to you, Shell? As far as, like, this is. This was different this year, this was new. Or you. You saw a theme of things happening.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

You know, a lot of the talks I sat in on, we were talking about communication, which I feel like is always a big conversation we have. But really, you know, in what we saw in 2024 with the misinformation, it kind of really saturated social media and got us where it was harder to get that scientific message out or even warnings and helpful information. For think what I kept hearing that it kept coming back to is that local voice and a trusted voice. And those are really the ways that we're going to get the information that we need to get out, not just about climate change, but about extreme weather as well. Like, we really need to focus on that as we kind of watch the way that we consume our news and our media change. Like, those voices are still very important. My favorite quote of the entire conference with Ken Graham, he. He sat down and he said, how are we supposed to communicate with the next generation that isn't in 20 seconds while riding a skateboard, holding a fuzzy cat while Fleetwood Mac is playing? And I think the only thing he missed with that is that the next generation isn't listening to Fleetwood Mac. So maybe like while Sabrina Carpenter is playing. But I think that was a very good point. Like, how do we communicate with Gen Z and then the next generation beyond that, to continue to get out the message about climate change and extreme weather?

[Emily Gracie]

For sure, maybe the answer is podcasting. I mean, there's a lot of that, right? And then, you know, what's interesting that stood out to me, the moment of the conference. And Bernadette, this comes back to you is this problem of communication and people, the message going out there. And it doesn't matter how good the forecast is, if people aren't getting that forecast and aren't learning what the hazards are and how to deal with them, it's pointless. And you leaned over and whispered at one point and said something to me about how important it is to have meteorologists and people who have this knowledge just be in the community. Even if it's just like a community service effort that people like us are doing, it's connecting somebody who didn't know a meteorologist before with now a meteorologist, and they can hear real information and not just whatever they heard online. And that really stuck with me.

[Shell Winkley]

The real goal is trying to keep people safe and prepared. Right. And so scientifically we're advancing so rapidly and learning so much. That's great. But how do we get those scientific learnings to the right people in the right places, in ways that matter? And there are communication techniques to do that. There are emergency management chains set up. But there's also this changing element of how we consume information, who we trust, and how to really break through that so that when something is happening, we can get the warning in a timely way to the right place and connect them with life, saving not only information, but resources for during the event and after the event. And one of the things that's really great about the American Meteorological Society is its weather, water and climate for the full enterprise, from the science all the way through to the practitioners on the ground doing that work, from emergency management and communicators and broadcasters. And this group really does come together and try to challenge where we can do better in these moments. The other thing, just to give people a sense of this conference, it is so broad, and how weather and water and climate apply to life. There are sessions on health, energy, space, weather. There's the climate modeling, the weather modeling, the water modeling, really technical advances to the policy and how that's playing out also in our changing DC landscape to all the way down to technology and how people are consuming this information. So there's a whole lot of really cool stuff going on at this meeting. Some that is a little denser and some that is really, in these big group conversations, trying to challenge us to do better.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I would add to that, you know, talk about technology. One of the biggest sessions I think I saw myself was around AI. That's been a topic that we've Talked about a lot lately, but not just about how AI is going to change a meteorologist or a researcher's job and how we get our forecasts, but really how it can amplify things like better forecasts or better ways of getting information out. I think that was maybe the most energetic that I've seen. A crowd just talking about that whole subject.

[Emily Gracie]

I think you guys made it to more sessions than I did.

[Shell Winkley]

Well, I always challenge myself to go to a couple that, that are different for me, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the topic, how it's organized and who the presenters are. Right. But there are ones that I'll go in and it's, it opens new things in new ways. And, and that's the beauty of a conference like that is. And again, for people who don't go to this, this is this collection of you've got hour plus sessions, you've got deep dive workshops, but you also have these 15 minute sessions going on where people are just pumping out new research. So there's a whole lot of different stuff going on at once.

[Emily Gracie]

It's really overwhelming. And it was a really big conference center too. So sometimes she'd be walking a mile, like between sessions quickly. So I often saw you guys like in passing.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

My peak day was like 20,000 steps. I was like a thousand steps off my, my record that I've ever gotten. So lots of walking, lots of learning.

[Emily Gracie]

I did. I did 20,000 one day too. And I was like, I walked 10 miles today and I never left the convention center. All right, so let's talk about Groundhog Day because there's a lot of, like, I would say, controversy among the meteorologists crowd about this holiday. So first of all, I'm curious what you guys think. Do you like a strong opinion? Do you hate Groundhog Day or are you kind of like, this is fun and silly?

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I do have a strong opinion, but I'm going to let Bernadette go first.

[Shell Winkley]

You know, I'll say I went to Penn State, so it's not far away, but it didn't really get this cultural appeal that it has now until after I was done at Penn State. So I wasn't part of the group that would go out there overnight and camp out. I kind of wish I was, but I wasn't.

[Emily Gracie]

You're kind of dating yourself now, like pre movie, post movie.

[Shell Winkley]

Exactly. I'm pretty. That Groundhog Day excitement. But I do have to say though, I mean, it's eroded. It is, however, when there's opportunities to bring attention to weather. And although sometimes there's something fun about that and ways that we can communicate people to people about how this relates to bigger things or different things that they're experiencing.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I'm a Phil loyalist. He is the prognosticator of all prognosticators. Like, you don't get that title just willy nilly. Like, they don't give that to anybody. Okay. That's all I'm saying.

[Emily Gracie]

I did not know that you were going that direction. I thought you were in the. I definitely thought you were going the opposite direction.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I love him. In fact, when I was on tv, we have that and, like, the dress up and the pump. And the only thing is, like, it is a little mean to just drag dude out of, like, his hole before, you know, he has his cup of coffee and gets ready for the day. So, like, I would be angry, too. But overall, I love Groundhog Day. I love the movie. One of the reasons I wanted to become a broadcast meteorologist, when Bill Murray does the whole cold front, where he blows, you know, the cold front and moves on tv. I never did it, but I always wanted to do that move live on tv.

[Shell Winkley]

We've got to get you to Punxsutawney. I know.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I've always wanted to go.

[Emily Gracie]

You've never been. How about you, Emily? I am a convert, I would say. I used to be of the. You know, I thought, like, okay, especially working morning news on Groundhog Day. I felt like everybody was paying so much more attention to this rodent than they were to my forecast. So it was a little bitter. But as time has gone on, I see it for what it is. And after talking to Joe Mirgo, who we're going to hear from today on the show, I was converted. I was like, okay, you're right. He's bringing awareness to. This is a change in seasons. People are celebrating weather. It's fun. And also something he pointed out is, like, what does early spring mean? Like, that's such not a definite term. So the whole thing of, like, saying it's right or wrong, there really is no right or wrong, because it's not. He's not saying the temperatures are going to be an average of 45 or above between this day and this day. He's saying early spring or, you know, winter continues.

[Shell Winkley]

I do have to say that's the thing, Emily, that I would probably come across differently than other people is I wouldn't necessarily cheer in early spring. I like snow. I like winter. So I don't understand why that is the common assumption that that's good to have an early spring. That's where I think I differ from some people. But I'm, I'm here for the party.

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I co signed that though, because I'm in Texas. And so like any time he's like, early spring, I was like, it's been spring for the past five months. I want some winter. So I like him when he dives back into his hole.

[Emily Gracie]

So, okay, that segues into the fact that I, I want to hear, you guys are experts on this. A changing climate change. Is there, first of all, any information you can tell me about Punxsutawney when it comes to climate? Because this has been going on since 1887. And so I want to know, does Phil know about climate change and has the climate been changing in this one location? Do we know?

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

Yeah. So we know that, you know Phil, he doesn't usually predict early spring. So I went back and I dug through all the Data Just since 1970, 16 times is how often he has predicted in early spring. The most recent was last year and then in 2020, and then between 1897 and 1970, he only predicted five early springs. So like in terms of his predictions, Phil normally leans towards winter, you know, but we did some analysis and we saw that 93% of the cities we analyzed. So it's 244 cities within the six weeks that Phil was supposedly prognosticating for. Right. 93% of those have seen a warming trend in that six week period. So when you look at the climate science, even if he's saying that, you know, winter might be sticking around, the trend is that spring is just becoming earlier and earlier for most of our U.S. cities.

[Emily Gracie]

Well, that's kind of sad. Okay, so what do you think for this year, guys? Any predictions?

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

All right, here's my one. My one flaw with Punk Satani. There's a lot of lights, right? Like they put a lot of lights around them so you can have cameras and so everyone can see them. So like, does that skew Phil's shadow?

[Emily Gracie]

This is why they don't let us scientists anywhere near there in February 2nd.

[Shell Winkley]

People cheer, they party and have fun.

[Emily Gracie]

They don't want us ruining the fun. Okay, Bernadette, do you have any predictions?

[Shell Winkley]

I'm hoping that we continue in winter because I live in New Jersey and we did finally get a little bit of snow in this last storm. We had sleet mix in, so it really limited our snow mounts to like two and a half, maybe three inches. And we're in a pattern that we could get some good snow. And I just hope for that one big snowstorm. So I'm hoping we get that out of Phil's forecast.

[Emily Gracie]

Well, we'll see. And you know, I, I'm like staring at the radar waiting for snow to start here in Charleston, South Carolina. So no sign of spring here yet for sure. Shell Winkley, Bernadette at Woods Plackey, do you have anything else you want to add about Groundhog Day or the AMS annual meeting before I let you go?

[Bernadette Woods Plackey]

I would say had a blast at AMS and give, give Phil a break. He's trying with the best of us. He again, climate change is a thing. Like he's trying to do the best job that he can.

[Emily Gracie]

That's all.

[Shell Winkley]

Use it as an opportunity to learn something about the weather and our changing climate. And for anyone interested in the ams, there is a weather enthusiast portion that you can get involved in of Weather Band right now. And it's going to be evolving a little bit. But Weather Band gives you an opportunity to learn more if you are interested in weather.

[Emily Gracie]

Cool. Yeah, they have some great webinars and educational material. Awesome, guys. Thank you so much. And for anybody who's not already a fan of Punxsutaw, you will be after hearing from Joe Mergo. We're going to hear from him next. He's going to tell us about the history of Groundhog Day, the scientific significance, and he's been there every year himself for like over 20 years. I can't wait to hear from him on what his experiences are like. It's going to be a lot of fun. Thank you guys so much for coming on today. Thank you, Emily Foreign I'm so happy to have you on today because you are not only a former broadcast meteorologist, but somebody who covered an event like nobody else. You are like the original what's the guy's name from Groundhog Day?

[Joe Mergo]

Yes.

[Emily Gracie]

Phil Connors. Okay. You are the original Phil Connors in a real life kind of way. So let's talk about Groundhog Day and kind of the weather implications, the science implications. But I want to start by asking you a little bit about your history with Groundhog Day and how long you covered it and what that was like.

[Joe Mergo]

My first year covering it was back in 2002, and I have a streak that continues to go on. So even during COVID they closed it off. But I've been there. I have. It's impossible. I have the longest streak of covering it on the media. And yes, I'LL still be there this year.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, so what's it like? Because we have our preconceived notions, you know, like the movie tells us one thing. Recent years, you see it on TV and it looks like a giant raging party early in the morning. So what is it? What's going on there?

[Joe Mergo]

Well, what it is, is it's nothing like the movie at all. In the movie he's in this bed, his breakfast. He just goes out to a little park downtown and then that's it. So Gobbler's Knob is a couple of miles south of Punsitani. You have. In the old days it really was a free for all party. Then when 2000 and 2001 hit 911 after that they slowly started building in more security. Now you can't get up there until two in the morning and you have to take a bus from downtown Punxsutari unless you have a special access. And so the crowd usually is downtown and they have different places you can stay. And then they work their way on the bus and people are there all morning long just in the cold, dancing, watching the entertainment. And it is a pretty big party though nowadays it's, I'm sure there are some, let's say, substances of liquid there. I don't really get to see it, but I don't around the crowd much. But it definitely has changed. And there's family sections and there's fires for people to warm up and it's just a nice atmosphere. I tell everyone it's something you got to do at least once. You've never been yet happy.

[Emily Gracie]

I haven't. But I've also heard people say that about New Year's Eve and Times Square. And I have no desire to do that. Are there bathrooms?

[Joe Mergo]

Yes, there are. In fact, for most people it's just lie to porta Potties, but there's plenty. They have amenities, they have first aid, they have security. So there, there, there are. You're not out in the middle of woods in the middle of nowhere. You don't have to rely on depends like you do a New Year's where I mean, yeah, you can get to the spots. Now I will say I limit my water consumption early in the day because once I'm in position at three in the morning, I'm usually in that position till about 9. No bathroom breaks, nothing. I'm usually one station, another station and just constantly doing updates.

[Emily Gracie]

So how do you prepare? You say you dehydrate for one. Like do you have hand warmers?

[Joe Mergo]

How do you dress the biggest thing is you do have to make sure you dress appropriately, because if it's a cold morning, that cold gets to you no matter what. I'm a skier, so I have plenty of gear, but the cold will get to you. And I've seen several professional broadcasters, even nationwide, and that they look drunk at the end. They're not drunk. It's just the cold is slowing down their processes a good bit, and that's the biggest thing. And you just have to dress appropriately. Now, if you show up too close to the end, you're way in the back.

[Emily Gracie]

So if you've been doing this for 20 years, I'm sure you've seen lots of different types of weather on Groundhog Day. Any extremes that stand out to you?

[Joe Mergo]

There were a couple of really cold ones in the early 2000s, and then. And ironically, it was one time that my whole family decided to go. The worst is when there's a little bit of rain and it's cold. That's. That's the worst kind of weather. But recently, it's been pretty mild. Now, I will say my gear gets better year to year. I'm pretty comfortable. But there's been a couple of years. A couple of years ago, I remember I had to strip some layers. It was that mild. So. Wow. Yeah.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, so take me through the process itself of the groundhog scene, its shadow. Are we still relying on that? I'm. I'm curious about kind of the history and when things transition to. There's like a scroll and who are the guys in the top hats? Explain it all to me.

[Joe Mergo]

Well, it all started in the 1800 in Pennsylvania, and even before then. I'll even back up. Even before then, it was a German tradition over in Europe, and they used to use a hibernating hedgehog. Well, when the Germans migrated to Pennsylvania and we had a high German population. So what they did is, well, we don't have hedgehogs here. They found the groundhog similar enough. And in the late 1800s, they came out for the first time and every year since then, and the tradition really didn't grow that much until the movie. And that's where you went from. It grew to maybe hundreds to absolute thousands there. But the scrolls. That's been going on for a long time. And. And what Phil proclaims is he actually speaks in groundhogies.

[Emily Gracie]

Oh, I'm not fluent. Tell me more.

[Joe Mergo]

Yes, he. He only speaks that language, and only the president who's holding the cane. And if you notice, they wrap on his stump before they Bring him up and holding that cane, can understand groundhoggies. And he picks one of two scrolls, one that says that he sees a shadow, one that says that says he doesn't. And, you know, Phil has always been there, ever since the 1800s.

[Emily Gracie]

Wow. Phil is old.

[Joe Mergo]

Yes. He drinks a magical elixir every July. That's how he stays young. Phil and Phyllis, gonna need that recipe. Same here. And I do want to get this out, because you're probably going to hear it. He's treated pretty well. A lot of people will sit there and go, that's so mean. The groundhog. Well, first of all, he is a lot more comfortable than I am on Groundhog Day. And I'm right in front of his stump, seeing his little light heat on the inside of his stump, and I'm outside in the cold. But they treat him so nice. He has a habitat in the library that's his home with him and Phyllis, and it's a museum there. And they do. They do treat him pretty nice.

[Emily Gracie]

I have not heard concerns about that, but maybe it's just the circles I run in. I do, however, run in the circles of meteorologists that are, like, angry about Groundhog Day. They're angry that anybody puts any stock in a groundhog for a seasonal forecast. So you've kind of always spoken on the opposite side of things. I'm like, this is a fun tradition. So can you address that?

[Shell Winkley]

The.

[Emily Gracie]

The people that are very critical of Phil?

[Joe Mergo]

Well, first of all, I am first and foremost science. I still teach meteorology for one of the campuses at Penn State. I am science, true and true. I now work in the climate and weather risk field. First of all, who is totally putting all their stock in on what this one tradition is? Second of all, why do I celebrate it? Well, first of all, I also am one of those people who don't like the darkness. And, you know, and seasonal affective disorder is a big issue. You know, what the interesting thing about Groundhog Day and why they picked that date? It is the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. So that means you're now getting into that period where the daylight really strengthens. You know, it is a turning of the seasons, and that is a very important day to me when it comes to daylight, and that it does have a significance there where they picked that day.

[Emily Gracie]

Yeah, you're right, because, you know, like, I grew up in Connecticut, and the winter felt very never ending. And Groundhog Day was always kind of like this day of hope, regardless of what the outcome was, it was like this day of hope where we had something all of a sudden to look forward to. Because that time between, you know, January 1st and February 1st is kind of like a bleak time. You know, it makes us think, okay, spring is spring right around the corner. Either way, it's going to happen this year longer. That's a really good point.

[Joe Mergo]

It's the super bowl of weather. You get the whole world interested in weather on a day and in a.

[Emily Gracie]

Good way, not in like a traumatic hurricane or snowstorm kind of way.

[Joe Mergo]

Yes. And so to me, it's a celebration day, more of celebrating weather and the changing seasons and less about the actual message.

[Emily Gracie]

Speaking of the outcome, what, what's Phil's accuracy like? Do you have any numbers for me on like, how he actually does or is, is there any concrete evidence on that?

[Joe Mergo]

So Phil's accuracy, you know, it's, it's, it's a never lose forecast. Six more weeks of winter, you know, no definition, winner and spring right around the corner. So how can you ever prove him wrong? Wrong? It really is a loose definition. So in the court of law, could you argue that Phil is 100% correct? Yes, because there is no true definition of winter. There's no true definition of spring, because really, spring is just a battle between winter and summer. And eventually summer will win no matter how miserable it is.

[Emily Gracie]

So even if there isn't like scientific accuracy in Groundhog Day, is there scientific relevance kind of beyond this whole. It's the halfway point here in the season. Is there any other scientific relevancy here?

[Joe Mergo]

Well, yes, often you're talking about a long wave trough or ridge that locks in for about four or six weeks at a time. At the midway point, if the weather is clear, most likely at mild, most likely you're in a ridge. So he would see his shadow. And therefore, given the length of when cold air can hold on, odds are the pattern will change again and it will still feel harsh. Winter like, and there's still significant cold. However, if you're locked in that trough, odds are it is going to warm up sometime and then, you know, maybe less than a month. By the time it would go back again into that long wave trough, the amount of cold air is gone and we, and the sun's getting too strong. So there is a little scientific, if you think about it and break it down to the overall weather pattern, because you think about it, in winter, you don't usually go lock in. You go from a cold pattern to a warm pattern, back to. There are some Long wave shifts.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, Punxsutani for play. A lot of people don't even know where this is. And I mean, if you grew up in, say, California, this may be completely irrelevant to you. You don't even know where this is. So can you explain, like, where in Pennsylvania this is and then your TV market and just how small that is and how it was like the hometown TV market for this city?

[Joe Mergo]

Yes. Yeah. I. I worked in the Altoona Johnstown Television Market, which includes Jefferson county, where Punxsutawney is located. It is about an hour northwest of Altoona and about an hour and a half northeast of Pittsburgh, off the beaten path. There's no major interstate there, and that's why it's really important to the tell, and this is a big boost to their economy every year. So, you know, it's real important to the small little town, but it is in the middle of nowhere, and it's even outside of that town, too. It's kind of hysterical. So, yeah. So, yeah, the Altoona Johnstown Market is the home market for Phil, and that's how I got to cover it for all those years.

[Emily Gracie]

Okay, so 20 plus years. We've talked about kind of the weather you've seen in that time, anything else that you've seen, any weird things happen or crazy things happen that stand out to you? Some fun memories of covering this for over two decades.

[Joe Mergo]

Let me think of all the ones that are safe to say.

[Emily Gracie]

You can tell me the unsafe ones, too. I'll cut them out if they're too inappropriate.

[Joe Mergo]

Well, there was one, governor. You know, Phil, Grandma hog have very sharp teeth. And he's not. He's. He's not a. It's not a domestic animal. Phil does have changing mood. One governor. They warned, and they said, whatever you do, Governor, don't try to pet the groundhog. And the first thing that they. He did when he got up on stage, he reached out for it. And thank goodness Bill. I think Bill Dilly was the handler at that time. Thank goodness his reflexes were fast enough because the governor almost lost a finger that day. A lot of times you'll see them handling him with black gloves, and there's fencer steel mesh gloves underneath. So this. You know, the teeth are very sharp. There's another time that they lifted Phil up and they always hold him up and do this to the crowd. It was one time he had to go, actually, they didn't turn in front of me. But he did shower.

[Emily Gracie]

Oh, no. They got wet. They got peed on.

[Joe Mergo]

People got peed on.

[Emily Gracie]

And that's not what you want on a cold day.

[Joe Mergo]

No, it's not what you want even on a warm day. And another time, Phil almost got away and it was just really, it was a tense moment because he, he slipped and he fell and his mouth went to the area on the handler's body where you're hoping someone doesn't take a bite. Oh, yes.

[Emily Gracie]

Has the crowd ever done anything weird? Has there ever been like fights?

[Joe Mergo]

Absolutely. There's always. Now one time there was someone from an MTV show that was there. It was Viva Labem. He was going to storm the stage. And it was interesting because of the maneuvering we, how everyone heard it was trying to prevent that. You know, there was one time this woman came in just a fur bikini, did some of the outfits that people wear. I mean, there's a guy, he has a different groundhog beanie baby. He adds to his hat every year. It's very interesting. And you see people from everywhere. I've, I've run into, you mentioned California. It doesn't mean much, but I've, I've run into people from Japan, Australia, Hawaiians. It's like a bucket list. I, I even one time interviewed and talked to a South African.

[Emily Gracie]

They must think like, what a strange American tradition.

[Joe Mergo]

Yes. And you know, and it's interesting because he does get his picture because I'll know because people will see it and I. It's in newspapers all around the world. Phil gets his proclamation and especially if it's a really rough weather pattern around the time he tends to get even more headlines.

[Emily Gracie]

What can you tell me about the inner circle? How do you get in the inner circle? Are women allowed? It seems kind of elite.

[Joe Mergo]

It's, it is, you know, I, there have been conversations, to be honest. I've met a lot of the women family of the inner circle and they're like, that's okay. We don't stay up night all night anyway because they work constantly. It's a group of people who, their responsibility is to carry on tradition. And it's a 365 day a year job. It is, you know, you do have to work your way in and it requires a certain amount of volunteer hours and then they'll retire and they still are part of it, but it is a small club. I'm, I, I was so honored the one time I'm an honorary member of the inner circle.

[Emily Gracie]

I was going to ask, do you have any aspirations to be in the inner circle, given your history?

[Joe Mergo]

Not the full inner circle. I'm just happy enough to be an honorary member. And, you know, and I will tell you, I love those guys. Those guys are great. They really do a lot. And the governor, Governor Shapiro, came last year right after he was elected to office, and he and his family loved the tradition and they just brought the inner circle and they invited me and we all went to the governor's mansion 100 days before groundhog Day. And we had a celebration and Phil was there, too.

[Emily Gracie]

Are there a lot of pregame events?

[Joe Mergo]

There are people who go there every day of the year just to see it. When you walk around Punxsutawney, there's all these small little groundhogs all over the place. It goes small. They're about four or five foot tall statues all over town. So people go there all the time. And maybe not even go for the day itself, but some people will go up two, three days ahead of time and we'll stay. And good luck in getting a hotel room around there. It's interesting because Punsutawney doesn't have much in the way of lodging. I was really lucky for the longest time because they allowed me. I would, I say no one's up at Gobbler's Knob, but for a while, for about a half dozen years, I would have an RV in the back and I would sleep on Gobbler's Knob.

[Emily Gracie]

Oh, wow.

[Joe Mergo]

With my crew. Yes.

[Emily Gracie]

How convenient.

[Joe Mergo]

It's so interesting because I would go to sleep and it's all empty patch of woods and you wake up and there's tens of thousands of people.

[Emily Gracie]

Yeah. Joe, is there anything else you want to add about Groundhog Day? This has been really fun.

[Joe Mergo]

No, just again, it's worth it for someone to go once. It's a fun thing, do it once, but just have a great attitude and prepare for the cold.

[Emily Gracie]

Off the Radar is a production of the National Weather Desk. Make sure you're following the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes publish every Tuesday. We'd also love you to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Thank you to Joe Mergo, Shell Winkley and Bernadette Woods Plackey for being on the show today. If you have questions or comments about today's episode, or you want to give me an idea for future episodes, find me on social media. Just search Emily Gracie Weather on any platform. Platform including Blue sky, which I just joined. I also want to thank my associate producer, Brian Petrus for his help on this episode and to Sinclair Broadcast Group for their ongoing support. I'm prognosticator Emily Gracie. Make it a great day.