Podcast Summary: "Humanizing Hurricane Forecasting: A New Era in Hurricane Messaging"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Off the Radar
• Host: Emily Gracey, Meteorologist at The National Weather Desk
• Episode: Humanizing Hurricane Forecasting: A New Era in Hurricane Messaging
• Release Date: December 10, 2024

Introduction

In this insightful episode of Off the Radar, host Emily Gracey engages in a compelling conversation with Jamie Rome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center. The discussion centers on the transformative 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, exploring advancements in hurricane forecasting, evolving communication strategies, and critical lessons learned to enhance public safety and understanding.

Recap of the 2024 Hurricane Season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season marked a significant milestone with NOAA forecasting between 17 to 25 named storms—the highest number ever predicted. Emily Gracey sets the stage by highlighting the unprecedented nature of the season:

Emily Gracey [00:00]: "The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was forecasted to be active. NOAA predicts 17 to 25 named storms this year. It is the most storms NOAA has ever predicted. But active doesn't begin to capture what."

Jamie Rome echoes the severity of the impacts, emphasizing the catastrophic flooding and long-lasting inland devastation:

Jamie Rome [00:15]: "Unfolded the potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall all the way from western North Carolina just to the west of Charlotte Hickory, Asheville."

The season featured record-breaking early storms, including the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, and storms like Helene and Milton that caused extensive inland damage. These events not only tested forecasting capabilities but also reshaped communities across affected regions.

Advances in Hurricane Forecasting

Rome discusses the technological and methodological advancements that have enhanced forecasting precision:

Jamie Rome [01:15]: "I mean, we're making predictions now. I would have never thought possible when I started and they still to this day stun me."

Key advancements include:

• Inland Watches and Warnings: For the first time, the forecast cone now includes inland hazards, providing a more comprehensive view of potential impacts.

  Jamie Rome [06:35]: "Can you imagine trying to communicate the inland extent of damage and the impact of damage from a Helene type storm without that, that cone?"

• Artificial Intelligence for Language Translation: Implementing AI to translate forecasts into multiple languages, specifically Spanish, has improved accessibility and accuracy.

  Jamie Rome [09:05]: "I felt like it was... really accurate in most cases. It was largely reliable."

• Drones and Advanced Instruments: Deployment of drones and sail drones has allowed for more detailed data collection, enhancing numerical weather prediction models.

  Jamie Rome [11:05]: "These new technologies are allowing us to start to poke and probe at different aspects of the storm."

Communication Evolution

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on revolutionizing how hurricane forecasts are communicated to the public:

Jamie Rome [02:03]: "Telling people why they've been ordered to evacuate... That's why we have trust."

Moving Beyond the Forecast Cone

Traditionally, the hurricane forecast cone has been a central visual tool. However, its limitations became apparent as more of the storm's impact extended beyond the cone:

Jamie Rome [06:35]: "The circumstantial evidence that we've heard... that had a fairly large impact on the communities that were in the path."

The introduction of inland watches and warnings has prompted the public to shift focus from the cone to specific hazards, aligning with the original intent of hazard-focused communications.

Humanizing the Forecast

Rome emphasizes the importance of making forecasts relatable and localized:

Jamie Rome [34:23]: "This is based off what social and behavioral scientists have been telling us... humanizing the forecast, localization, making people feel that the storm can impact them."

Initiatives include:

• Visual Footage: Sharing real-time videos from hurricane hunter flights to convey the storm's power and immediacy.

  Jamie Rome [36:42]: "We're using virtual reality and augmented reality to help people feel and experience the emotional."

• Localized Risk Communication: Tailoring messages to specific communities, considering factors like infrastructure, socioeconomic status, and vulnerability.

  Jamie Rome [14:13]: "What does that mean in terms of a societal impact... it's a new frontier for the meteorological community."

Evolving Beyond the Saffir-Simpson Scale

The conversation addresses the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale, advocating for a more nuanced approach to communicating hurricane threats:

Jamie Rome [31:41]: "The storm is just too complicated to conflate all that information in a singular number."

Rome suggests moving towards detailed hazard-specific information, such as explicit data on storm surge, rainfall, and wind gusts, to empower the public with actionable knowledge.

Mortality Tracking and Reduction

A critical theme is the tracking and mitigation of hurricane-related mortality, expanding beyond traditional direct deaths to include indirect and excess mortality:

Jamie Rome [16:52]: "We're trying to factor in these different elements... it's a new frontier."

Categories of Mortality:

1. Direct Mortality: Immediate deaths caused by storm surge, winds, and flooding.
2. Indirect Mortality: Deaths occurring after the storm due to factors like power outages, lack of air conditioning, or inability to access medication.
3. Excess Mortality: Long-term deaths resulting from emotional stress, lack of healthcare access, and other prolonged impacts.

Rome highlights the alarming rise in indirect and excess mortality, stressing the need for comprehensive tracking and policy interventions:

Jamie Rome [20:24]: "The death that might occur five years from now from the stress... or the lack of access to healthcare... these numbers are larger in magnitude than the direct mortality."

Strategies for Reduction:

• Enhanced Tracking Systems: Developing more robust methods to monitor and analyze mortality trends.
• Public Health Integration: Collaborating with public health officials to address the long-term impacts of hurricanes.
• Proactive Communication: Educating the public on how to prepare not just for the immediate aftermath but also for the extended recovery period.

Challenges and Lessons Learned

The episode delves into the persistent challenges in hurricane forecasting and communication:

Jamie Rome [45:32]: "We can't stop communicating the why."

Public Complacency and Misinterpretation

• Misunderstanding Forecast Tools: The shrinking cone has led some to misinterpret hurricane impacts, necessitating clearer hazard-focused messaging.

  Jamie Rome [26:36]: "People who interpreted the cone as an impact graphic are making the wrong conclusions."

• Inadequate Shelter Responses: Instances where even informed individuals failed to take necessary precautions during critical moments highlight gaps in communication effectiveness.

  Jamie Rome [41:16]: "They don't have power. There's no Internet, there's no TV, there's no dissemination system."

Internal Resistance to Change

• Media Practices: Traditional media prioritizes visual elements like the forecast cone and spaghetti models, often at the expense of conveying comprehensive hazard information.

  Jamie Rome [51:01]: "They're not going to like it, but it's the truth... use some portion of that time to communicate the risk."

• Educational Gaps: There is a need for better training and workshops for meteorologists and media producers to adopt and implement new communication strategies effectively.

  Jamie Rome [24:06]: "We're partnering with conferences to try to offer workshops... engage not just the weather professionals themselves."

Future Directions and the 2025 Season

Looking ahead, Rome outlines several initiatives aimed at further enhancing hurricane forecasting and communication:

Jamie Rome [47:19]: "We're going to try to push rip currents up... making the content more modern and accessible."

Planned Enhancements:

• Continued Refinement of the Forecast Cone: Evaluating feedback from the inaugural year of inland watches and making minor adjustments to improve clarity.

• Expanded Hazard Communication: Focusing on underrepresented hazards like rip currents, which now account for more fatalities than storm surge.

• Modernizing Digital Platforms: Updating websites and mobile interfaces to ensure information is easily accessible and user-friendly.

  Jamie Rome [49:15]: "Meeting people where they are and they're consuming information very, very different."

• Innovative Communication Tools: Utilizing short, engaging video clips and immersive technologies like virtual and augmented reality to convey the severity and local impacts of hurricanes.

Jamie Rome [36:42]: "We're using virtual reality and augmented reality to help people understand the emotional."

Concluding Thoughts

The episode underscores the critical balance between advancing scientific precision and effectively communicating complex information to the public. Rome emphasizes the importance of maintaining and building trust through transparency and comprehensive hazard communication:

Jamie Rome [53:57]: "We've got to continue to communicate what we do know and more importantly, sometimes what we don't know. And that way... we have to fight to keep [trust]."

Emily Gracey and Jamie Rome conclude with a shared vision of a future where hurricane forecasting is not only scientifically advanced but also deeply integrated with public needs and comprehension, ensuring communities are better prepared and more resilient in the face of natural disasters.

Notable Quotes:

• Emily Gracey [00:00]: "The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was forecasted to be active. NOAA predicts 17 to 25 named storms this year. It is the most storms NOAA has ever predicted. But active doesn't begin to capture what."

• Jamie Rome [02:03]: "Telling people why they've been ordered to evacuate... That's why we have trust."

• Jamie Rome [06:35]: "The circumstantial evidence that we've heard... that had a fairly large impact on the communities that were in the path."

• Jamie Rome [14:13]: "What does that mean in terms of a societal impact... it's a new frontier for the meteorological community."

• Jamie Rome [31:41]: "The storm is just too complicated to conflate all that information in a singular number."

• Jamie Rome [45:32]: "We can't stop communicating the why."

• Jamie Rome [53:57]: "We've got to continue to communicate what we do know and more importantly, sometimes what we don't know."

This episode of Off the Radar provides a profound exploration of the evolving landscape of hurricane forecasting and communication. By humanizing forecasts and focusing on localized impacts, the National Hurricane Center is setting a new standard for public safety and engagement. Listeners gain valuable insights into the complexities of hurricane behavior, the critical importance of effective communication, and the ongoing efforts to reduce mortality and enhance community resilience.