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Emily Gracey
Imagine standing on a cliff edge, brilliant white buildings gleaming in the Mediterranean sun. Behind you, the blue waters of the Aegean stretch before you in a perfect crescent. But this isn't just any bay. You're actually gazing into one of the world's largest volcanic calderas. This is Santorini, the picture perfect Greek island paradise that Instagram dreams are made of. But what tourists marvel at today was born from Apocalypse. 3,600 years ago, one of history's most catastrophic eruptions tore through the heart of this island, shattering it into fragments and ripping the island into the vertically cliffed amphitheater it is today. The advanced civilization that once thrived here vanished in hours, buried under ash and tsunami waves. Is this what Plato immortalized in his famous tale of Atlantis? The advanced kingdom swallowed by the sea in a single day and night? For thousands of years, Santorini has slumbered. But in recent weeks, something has changed. Thousands of earthquakes have suddenly begun rattling the island's foundations. 20,000 tremors in less than a month. This week we're going off the radar with a geologist to peel back the postcard veneer of this island paradise and face an unsettling question. Is paradise about to be lost? Once more, we'll explore not just Santorini's rumbling depths, but the cutting edge science of volcanic systems around the globe, from the Mediterranean to Yellowstone and beyond, and what they mean for communities living in their shadows. I'm meteorologist Emily Gracey and you're listening to off the Radar, a production of the National Weather Desk. On the show, we dig deep into topics about weather, climate, the ocean, space, and much more. Our goal is to help you better understand the weather and to love it as much as we do.
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Emily Gracey
The Greek Islands evoke idyllic images of whitewashed homes dotted with blue domed roofs, of sun baked hillsides overlooking placid waters off the coast and fishing villages from antiquity that are almost as old as civilization itself. But beneath the plaster and tile, there's an archaic secret that has recently begun whispering its legends. Thousands of years ago, ancient Greeks might have thought it was the angry rumblings of the gods themselves. It might have felt like Zeus's lightning bolts were being hurtled down from Mount Olympus and striking the ground. Or like Poseidon's trident was plunging into the underwater depths of the earth to swallow up entire civilizations in a dramatic show of force. Today, we can track those tremors to seismic activity, but the stakes are just as high as they were for the ancient Greeks. The island of Santorini juts out of the Aegean Sea in a dramatic fashion. It was formed by a volcanic activity activity as layer after layer of molten lava folded over itself and hardened into rock. Around 1620 BCE, Santorini volcano experienced a major eruption. It had a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, of 7 on a scale from 0 to 8. The eruption caused a substantial part of the original Santorini island to be destroyed or plunged into the sea. Some historians have even speculated that the submerged Santorini civilization was the real life inspiration for the lost city of Atlantis. The present day island of Santorini, Greece, sits in a volcanic caldero, which is what gives Santorini its staggering cliffs along the West Coast. The 1620 BCE was the last major eruption in Santorini. But recently the region has been rocked by substantial rumblings. The island experienced hundreds of small earthquakes in the span of just three days. In total, they recorded over 20,000 earthquakes between January 26 and February 22, magnitudes that were typically between 1.0 and 4.9, with epicenters generally centered underneath the ocean. But seismologists fear that the quakes could increase in intensity. If they shifted their epicenters on land, they could potentially cause more damage. And even if the epicenters remain under the seabed, some fear that the underwater seismic activity could potentially trigger a tsunami that would endanger coastal areas. Today I'm talking with Sean Willsey, a geologist and geology professor whose work covers rock formation, fossilization and earthquakes. We'll cover the real risks in Santorini and what's happening below the surface to cause these quakes. Sean, thanks so much for coming on today. I am not an expert in volcanoes by any means. My expertise is the atmosphere. So I'm really glad to learn from you today and get a little bit of background information, not only on volcanoes, but one in particular that's kind of interesting and a lot of folklore, I feel like, around it. So we're going to talk about Santorini in Greece and what's been going on there. But can you tell me, first of all, who you are and what you do?
Sean Willsey
You. Yeah. My name's Sean Willsey, and I am a college geology professor at the College of Southern Idaho. My background is mainly in structural geology, so kind of how faults behave, but also been doing quite a bit with volcanology over the past 15 to 20 years. I lead field trips to different places, written a few books. Just I dabble in the geology that interests me. That's probably a good way to sum it up.
Emily Gracey
And it doesn't just interest you, it interests the general public. I feel like people are really into learning about volcanoes. It's kind of like tornadoes and hurricanes where they really pack a punch and they're kind of sexy in the news, so people want to learn more about them. Let's go back and talk about this one particular volcano that's getting some attention right now, and it's way out near. It's in Greece, in the Aegean Sea. Correct. We've been talking about Santorini. Can you give me a little history on Santorini? Because people. I think this is the island people think of when they think of Greece. Right. Like vacation photos, white buildings, beautiful photos, cliffside houses. So how did Santorini form, though?
Sean Willsey
Yeah, so it's one of the most visited places in Greece and the Greek Isles, for sure. Just very picturesque, as you said. And I think a lot of its sort of scenic and aesthetic beauty is because of the volcanic history and what's gone on there. And so Santorini, along with a few other islands and locations in that part of the Aegean Sea, are part of what we call a subduction zone. So it's a little messy in the Mediterranean in terms of all these little tiny micro plates running into each other or pulling apart from each other. But there's a plate that's moving northward underneath the Aegean Sea plates, underneath those Greek isles. And as it does so that process of one plate going underneath another generates magmas. And so that's the source of the magmas is what we call a subduction zone, where one plate is pushed beneath another.
Emily Gracey
Okay, so there used to be a whole city there, and now. And then volcano, what, 3,000 years ago, and now it's what we see today. Right. Santorini. But I looked in it as recent as, like, the 1700s. There's been some movement here, right?
Sean Willsey
Yeah. So Santorini's, you know, famous collapse you kind of mentioned to which Was historic, was a, what we call a caldera forming eruption. So basically the volcanic edifice, that island. And if you look at it on a map, Santorini is kind of this circular shape. There's a, like a central bay, and like you said, it's ringed by these steep cliffs where the white, white washed houses are kind of perched precariously upon. And that's because the center of the volcano, it had such a huge eruption that it collapsed in on itself. It evacuated so much of its magma chamber, propelling lava and ash to the surface, that it actually collapsed in on itself and formed what we call a caldera. So calderas are some of the most violent and destructive of all eruptions. They usually don't happen very often, so fortuitously. But that particular one unfortunately struck that civilization in Greece thousands of years ago and changed dramatically the the topography and the shape of the island. It also generated a large tsunami that, you know, propagated out throughout the, the whole Mediterranean region.
Emily Gracey
Okay, so now there's lots of buildings there. And in recent, what, weeks there's been a lot, lot of earthquake activity, right?
Sean Willsey
Yeah, about a month or so we've had a pickup in earthquake activity. So what people are calling a seismic swarm, which is as good a name as anything for it. And what's interesting is it's different than the typical earthquake behavior we tend to see. We typically see what we call a main shock aftershock sequence, where the stress is building up in the earth across some fault. Finally, that stress reaches a level that the fault moves, the rocks break, the earthquake is generated of whatever magnitude. And then in the hours and days and weeks afterwards, we see aftershocks. Right. So let's say there's a big magnitude 7 earthquake somewhere in Greece or anywhere. There's the big event, the main event. And then we see, over time, aftershocks coming in that are smaller, but they tend to dissipate over time. They get less frequent and smaller in magnitude over time. The recent event in the Aegean scene, or Santorini, has been very different. Instead of a main shock aftershock sequence, what we've been seeing is sustained earthquakes of a given magnitude, generally 4 to magnitude 5, low magnitude 5, that have been happening over about a two week period, along with many smaller earthquakes as well. So because these earthquakes are of a size or magnitude that people feel them and they can be locally destructive, that's why they've had such a panic in the area with, you know, shutting down schools, people evacuating on their own, and maybe staying away from these tourist Places that are normally visited is this seismic sequence has been sustaining kind of a consistent level of energy release for a good two, two plus weeks or so in that area.
Emily Gracey
So what does that mean?
Sean Willsey
We're not sure. So it's real perplexing to scientists. We've seen things like this before, but like I said, the tectonic setting is really complicated. It doesn't seem to be as simple as one singular fault that has an earthquake and then releases energy like the main shock aftershock sequence. There's a series of faults in there. Even though this part of the GN is what we call a subduction zone, where two plates are colliding and one sliding beneath each other. What's actually happening is that that plate that's being shoved underneath is actually starting to peel back a little bit. It's actually starting to roll back. And so what it sets up at the surface above it is extension. So all the faults and all the earthquakes we're seeing for the most part in this area are what we call extensional faults. They're caused by rocks being stretched rather than rocks being squished. Again, what's so interesting is that we have. So you have lots of faults in the area. There's also volcanoes in the area like Santorini, and they're all happening kind of in a similar area. Now, none of the earthquakes are happening for the most part. This big seismic swarm is not happening right underneath Santorini or any of the other volcanoes we know about. But there is a relationship between the faults potentially and the movement of magma. And there's. So. So the earthquakes are clear data. We can see those. We can see when the earthquakes are coming in, how big they are, you know, their, their relationship to other quakes and known faults. That's kind of the clear part of the science. What's a little murkier is the uplift data. So when we have volcanoes and volcanoes that are going to erupt, we often see earthquakes. That's one of the signals. But we also see ground deformation. The ground is actually moving, typically upwards, because magma is moving closer to the surface. It's causing the ground to like, bulge and deform above it. We're not seeing a clear pattern of that, so to speak. We are seeing some areas of uplift, but those are also places where you'd expect to see uplift if you have faults moving up and down. So while the earthquake, the earthquakes are happening, and that's clear data, the. There's no clear signs, for the most part, that that magma is going to Erupt. What we can say is there's possibly some signs that magma is moving in the subsurface. So it's this chicken in the egg problem a little bit with faults and magma movement does do them. Does the magma moving through the ground cause the faults to have earthquakes or does the faults with their earthquakes create space for the magma to move? And that's kind of a tricky mess that geologists bicker about and debate. And that's the good part of science is, you know, we can have competing models and ultimately we end up hopefully coming to some consensus. And I think right now, to be honest, we're at a point where it's just too early. It's still fresh. The data is being. The data is still coming in, the data is still being analyzed, and we don't have a clear indicator of what's going on. It doesn't look for the, for now, like Santorini is going to erupt, that we're going to have some cataclysmic volcanic eruption. And so it's been a little bit unfortunate that some headlines have run with that sort of sensational kind of take on things.
Emily Gracey
Yeah, well, it's definitely a better story.
Sean Willsey
Sure.
Emily Gracey
Okay, so besides the fact that we're not looking at something major happening or something down the road happening, what about some of the kind of immediate impacts? Like I'm thinking of these cliffside houses and landscapes slides and then also the ocean. Have there been any tsunami issues?
Sean Willsey
Yeah, great question. So the earthquakes have been large enough, and those slopes around Santorini are definitely steep enough. There can be landslides and slope failures. I haven't seen any of those in the news, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were has been some minor rockfall or some small slides, something like that. So that's definitely a concern with magnitudes that we're seeing in the 4 to 5 range, especially on those really steep slopes. The tsunami threats, not really something to worry about at this point based on what we're seeing, because you need to generate a tsunami with an earthquake, you need three things. You need an earthquake below water. We've got that all these earthquakes are happening below the Mediterranean or the Aegean Sea. You need secondly, an earthquake of a certain size. So you need earthquakes typically in the 6.5 and above range, because that's an earthquake big enough to actually break the sea floor. So it's actually has enough energy that it's offsetting the sea floor. These quakes have been up to 5.3, so they're just not energetic enough to Create that. And then the third thing you need is an earthquake along a fault where the movement is up and down. Some earthquakes occur sideways, like the San Andreas occurs horizontally, so the movement is horizontal. Those typically don't produce tsunami because they're not displacing the ocean up and down. So. So we've got two of the three. We've got earthquakes moving up and down, earthquakes, long faults that are moving up and down. We're in the ocean, but the magnitudes aren't big enough. So for now, with the level of seismic data that we're seeing, there's just not big enough to produce a tsunami. So that threat, I wouldn't say a zero. Of course, we're still in a very tectonically rich or active area, but given this seismic swarm over the last month or so, a tsunami is not likely.
Emily Gracey
Okay, so how do you predict a volcano? How do you predict, not just like a small one or one that's kind of actively happening but not doing much damage, but something like what happened in Santorini or, you know, Mount Vesuvius. How do you predict something, an event that big?
Sean Willsey
First of all, volcanoes can't be predicted in the classical sense. We're never going to get to the point where we know exactly at this day, on this time, there's going to be an eruption of this magnitude. That's really what a prediction is. But we can forecast them just like you do with the weather. You look at the data, you look at the models, and you have a probability. Right? Just like we say there's a 70 chance of rain tomorrow based on this cold front coming through. We can do similar things with volcanoes, but the first thing we have to do is look at their histories. We have to really understand the volcano and what it's done in the past. That comes from looking at the deposits, looking at the historic eruptions, the prehistoric eruptions, through analyzing all the available data. How, how thick are the ash deposits? How extensive are the lava flows? What has it done in the past? And then we combine that knowledge with monitoring. So we use instrumentation to look and see what the earthquake is doing right now and over, over periods of time. So that would include earthquakes, it would include ground deformation. So basically the ground moving up and down, which we can use GPS for, or there's other things called tilt meters. There's even satellite, the insar data that we can use. And then maybe something like gas emissions. Volcanically active regions will emit gas and you can look at the concentrations and the measurements of the gases. So we combine all that information and that helps us make a forecast just like a weather forecaster takes, not just the, you know, the atmospheric, you know, the temperature, the humidity, you look at everything, right? And then, and then you put that in to maybe a computer or model or you synthesize that data to figure out what might take place and look at the probabilities.
Emily Gracey
So there's been a lot of recent work done in weather when it comes to use of AI for computer modeling and improving forecasts. Has there been any AI use in the world of volcano prediction?
Sean Willsey
It probably has been a little bit. I'm not, I'm not sure I have. I'm not privy to anyone that's using it like kind of at the cutting edge. But certainly the more we know about, the more data we can cram into a computer about a volcano's past behavior, then AI could be used to make, you know, rough forecasts on how it might behave, you know, at a future time or in a present time. And so I have no doubt that's being used to some degree. Tricky with ones like Santorini though, is they don't erupt very often. And when they do, they have these large events. And so we go sometimes decades, centuries or more of quiescence of not much happening, and then we get a big event. And so you're kind of looking at a more limited data set punctuated by these few events, versus something like Kilauea or Iceland, where we have decades or hundreds of years of eruptions happening quite frequently, which gives us a better, more rich data set.
Emily Gracey
So how do you know about volcanoes dating back thousands of years ago?
Sean Willsey
Yeah, so we use, if there's any historical records that will be helpful. But of course, people thousands of years ago weren't, you know, running outside after an eruption and like measuring the thickness of the deposits and stuff. So we look at the rocks, the rock record, so we can excavate, entrench into the earth. We can measure how thick, we can see what it erupted. Did it erupt lava or ash? Lava is fairly innocuous. You, it's generally, you know, it destroys real estate. But people often times aren't killed by lava. Did it produce ash? Well, ash is a totally different beast. How much ash did it put down? How big are the particles? How widely distributed was that ash? What was the total volume that the volcano erupted? This is how we get estimates for places like Yellowstone, where we know Yellowstone is a quote unquote super volcano, is we've actually looked and seen how thick and widespread those ash deposits are. And then that gives you A volume. And that lets us know that those eruptions are truly like at a very large scale, like massive. They're. They're very large.
Emily Gracey
Okay, so you brought us back to the U.S. i want to talk about some stuff in the U.S. we currently have one that's been in the news every day in Hawaii. What is going on with the Kilauea volcano and how long has that been going on or what's going to happen here? Is this leading up to something big?
Sean Willsey
No, the Hawaii, the Hawaiian volcanoes are just very different. They tend to be. There are different magma types. So as we think about volcanoes, it's important to recognize that the composition of magma beneath each volcano varies. The magma underneath Santorini, for the most part, is thicker and stickier and goopier and it traps gases. So as the gases are trying to escape, it's like molasses. And the gases can't escape very easily. So that gas pressure builds and builds and builds. It might go centuries, it might even go longer. Ultimately, it's leading towards an eruption and a big eruption, but we've got a lot of time between eruptions. In contrast, in Hawaii, we have a very runny, a very fluid type of magma called basalt. And so the gases can escape easily. And we get much more frequent eruptions in Hawaii that aren't explosive and that don't cause much in the way of hazards. And so the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii has been a fascinating one because it's erupted between 1983 and 2018. It erupted every single day, like non stop for 35 years. And then in 2018, it did something totally different and it sent magma further down the slope and it erupted in the middle of a neighborhood and had a truly historic. And it emptied the magma chamber at the summit and caused collapse there. And since that time, more recently, Kilauea's behavior has become a bit more routine, a bit more not necessarily predictable, but easily easy to forecast. It's erupting at the summit, which is good because there's a huge crater up there, so there's a lot of place for that lava to go, so it doesn't pose any sort of threat to infrastructure. And it's been erupting when the gas pressure reaches a certain level and lava kind of gets shot out of these little vents, but it accumulates in that crater and it's a nice tourist location. I was actually there a few weeks ago and it was fantastic. And there were tourists just sitting there watching it and taking pictures and very safe. And then after an eruption, it actually starts rebuilding pressure and we can track that pressure with the ground deformation, looking at things called tilt meters to see how much the tilt of the volcano is changing. And when it reaches a certain level, the USGS usually says, hey, we're in this window, couple days or so of an eruption being likely. And sure enough, that's what we've been seeing. So it's been behaving pretty routinely. But Hawaii is a nice volcano. It, it, as far as I know, at least in modern times, no one's died for the most part from Hawaiian. Eruptions are oftentimes a desired destination for people to go. But a volcano like Santorini is at the opposite end of the spectrum. It's knotty, it's much more explosive.
Emily Gracey
Okay, so what about like Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier? Are they naughty or nice?
Sean Willsey
They're a little bit of both. I like to call those the bipolar volcanoes because they have the ability to do both. They can have large explosive eruptions like Mount St. Helens had in 1980. 50 some odd people died. It was a historic eruption. People who were around at that time remember all about it. It produced ash. But then you may not, people don't maybe not be aware that from 2004 to 2008 it erupted again, but it didn't produce ash and no one died.
Emily Gracey
I didn't know that.
Sean Willsey
Yeah, yeah, it actually just ooze out this thick pasty lava in the crater at the summit. Actually climbed it in 2006. And we looked down and we were watching this, this thick pasty lava. You couldn't see it glow because it was during the day, but that's what we were looking at. And it did that for four years and it wasn't much in the news because it was a kind of boring, you know, simple event. So that's it kind of at its nice behavior. So those types of volcanoes like Mount Rainier and St. Helens oscillate a bit from explosive eruptions of ash and then these more innocuous eruptions of just thick pasty lava that just oozes up somewhere near the crater summit.
Emily Gracey
What constitutes an active volcano?
Sean Willsey
Yeah, the definition of an active volcano is kind of nebulous. I think the USGS and other geologic agencies have often said that it's a volcano that's erupted in the last 10,000 years or shows signs of continual eruptive behavior or, you know, behavior that could culminate in an eruption. So it's, it's a different criteria, but you got, it's arbitrary. Right. I mean, Yellowstone hasn't had a big eruption in 640,000 years. And yet everyone would say Yellowstone's active because you go there and you see water shooting out of the ground and I see the steam and I see I can smell the sulfur. And it hasn't done anything for over half a million years for the most part.
Emily Gracey
But the way that you've explained it makes it sound like that's inactive may not be a good thing. It may mean like it's overdue.
Sean Willsey
Right, right. So that's the problem is, you know, when we start labeling volcanoes, it can create a false sense of security. Right. Because if we deem a volcano dormant or inactive and then let civilization to kind of creep up its flanks and get developed and people live closer to it, then it could be due for another eruption. And these more explosive volcanoes like Yellowstone or Santorini or even Rainier or St. Helens, we know they sometimes go centuries of just no activity at all, but that that clock is still ticking inside the volcano. The pressure's building and at some point we have an eruption. Thankfully, we have the tools. Now. Volcanoes very rarely catch us off guard. We see the signs, we see the earthquakes, we see the ground deformation. And so we can chart and monitor its progress and activity and it will give us warning signs that it's possibly going to erupt. And so the old days of us just being caught off guard by like, you know, there we are out in the garden and then the next minute, like Pompeii. Right. And Vesuvius would be a good example of that. Those days are gone because we have better techniques now and we can kind of really look at the data for these volcanoes and, and monitor them closely.
Emily Gracey
Are there any volcanoes around the world that worry you?
Sean Willsey
There's volcanoes that we probably need to take more seriously than we do. And then there's volcanoes that we overhype. Like Yellowstone. Like Yellowstone. We've done studies on the magma in Yellowstone and it's mostly crystallized. There's really good evidence that shows that the magma in Yellowstone right now is not even eruptible magma. It's like mostly a crystalline mush. And it's going to take a long time, like well beyond our lifetimes for that to change into something that could erupt. And then there's volcanoes, a lot of them are in underdeveloped countries or places where they maybe don't have the infrastructure and the resources to really monitor their volcanoes. And they've let you know civilization has crept further up their flanks. You know, the Campe Filegre volcano in Italy, which is a large system, you've got a whole urban setting just kind of sprawled across that thing in Italy. Yeah, that one is something to be concerned about. But thankfully, these are the volcanoes that don't erupt that often. Right. So we will, while we want to monitor them and watch them closely. Your human lifetime of a hundred years coinciding with one of these huge Santorini type eruptions is really small. So your hundred years or so on this planet also coinciding with something on that scale is very low. So like I tell my students all the time, like, death by Yellowstone is way down at the bottom of the list. Like there's, there's a hundred more things more likely to take you out than.
Emily Gracey
I don't know, you could get charged that by a bison there, right?
Sean Willsey
Well, yeah, exactly. Like driving your car is way more dangerous. Like, you know, we probably more likely get hit by a meteorite or crazy weather that you study or something, right?
Emily Gracey
Yeah, for sure. Okay, so in the fun of all of this folklore, do you think that Santorini is the lost city of Atlantis?
Sean Willsey
Oh, boy. I'm not a history buff per se, so I don't know that much about it. Yeah, I don't think so. But I don't have enough knowledge on the subject to really say one way or another. I look at the rocks, I look at the volcanoes. When you add people to the equation, it gets really complicated really fast. And that's when I kind of check out fascinating. But yeah, not my forte or my skill set.
Emily Gracey
Sean, you're an amazing teacher. I've learned so much from you in just a short period of time. And you have a YouTube channel where people can learn more, right?
Sean Willsey
Yeah. So I have a YouTube channel. Just my name, Sean will see Colon Geology explained. I'm really, really passionate about people just learning. They're interested. And so we cover some volcanoes that we've talked about here, like Kilauea in Iceland, and I just post educational informational videos. It could be a field video where I go outside and look at a road cut on a trip somewhere. Could be classroom sessions, just different ways for people to learn about this amazing planet of ours. I'm very passionate about that.
Emily Gracey
Awesome. Sean, is there anything else you want to add?
Sean Willsey
I think the general lesson is don't rush to conclusions. Let's let the situation evolve. Let's look at the data. While there certainly needs to be concern for these earthquakes in the Aegean Sea and precautions taken, you know, jumping from a cluster of earthquakes of moderate magnitude to cataclysmic Santorini level explosions, they're going to wipe out everyone. That's a bit much, right? Like we, we need to take it with a grain of salt. Let, let scientists do their work. Let the science kind of bear itself out. Take a deep breath and remember that the worst case situations, these like high impact but low probability events, they're probably not going to happen, right? You know, how often do you get a Category 5 hurricane? Not that often. Tropical storms all every year, right? Dozens. How often do you get an F5 tornado? Not that often, right? F0. Very common, right? So it's the same with these volcanic eruptions or these earthquakes. The big event, the headline event is the least likely. Doesn't mean we shouldn't be prepared for it or, you know, making precautions, but we shouldn't be so alarmist when we look at these things.
Emily Gracey
Off the Radar is a production of the National Weather Desk. Make sure you're following the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes publish every Tuesday morning. Also off the Radar is on Instagram. Make sure you give us a follow so you can see snippets of the show as well as other great weather content. Thank you to Sean Willsey from the College of Southern Idaho for joining me today. Check out his YouTube channel, Geology explained, if you want to learn more about volcanoes. Thank you to the National Weather Desk and Sinclair Broadcast Group for their ongoing support of the podcast, as well as my associate producer Brian Petras for his help writing today's episode. Our meteorologist, Emily Gracie. Make it a great day. Airport vibes got you stressing? Step out of the lines and into relaxation with the Platinum Card. Swap the noisy, crowdy gate for cozy chairs in that wait, am I famous? Kind of treatment. Rest, recharge or catch up on that to do list with complimentary access to over 1400 airport lounges with the American Express Global Lounge Collection. Learn more about the platinum card@americanexpress.com Explore Platinum Terms apply.
Podcast Summary: "Volcano Monitoring: Santorini's Seismic Swarm"
Off the Radar Episode released on March 4, 2025, hosted by Emily Gracey of The National Weather Desk, delves into the alarming seismic activities occurring in Santorini, Greece. This episode features an in-depth conversation with geologist Sean Willsey, exploring the island's volcanic history, the current seismic swarm, and broader implications for volcanic monitoring and prediction.
Emily Gracey sets the stage by painting a vivid picture of Santorini's picturesque landscape, juxtaposed with its tumultuous volcanic past. She recounts the catastrophic eruption 3,600 years ago that transformed the island's topography and led to the demise of its advanced civilization, a story that some speculate may have inspired the legend of Atlantis.
"What tourists marvel at today was born from Apocalypse." [00:01]
Gracey introduces the recent surge in earthquake activity on Santorini, noting over 20,000 tremors in less than a month. To unpack this phenomenon, she interviews Sean Willsey, a geology professor with expertise in structural geology and volcanology.
"We've had a pickup in earthquake activity. So what people are calling a seismic swarm, which is as good a name as anything for it." [09:41]
Willsey explains that the current seismic swarm deviates from the typical main shock-aftershock pattern. Instead, it features sustained earthquakes of magnitudes 4 to 5, causing significant concern among locals and tourists alike.
"This seismic swarm has been sustaining kind of a consistent level of energy release for a good two, two plus weeks or so in that area." [11:31]
Delving into Santorini's geological background, Willsey describes its formation within a subduction zone, where tectonic plates interact to generate magma. The infamous eruption around 1620 BCE had a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7, leading to the island's current caldera-forming structure.
"Santorini’s, you know, famous collapse you kind of mentioned to which Was historic, was a, what we call a caldera forming eruption." [08:26]
He elaborates on the mechanics of caldera formation, emphasizing the immense energy required to cause such a collapse and the resultant landforms that define modern Santorini.
The conversation shifts to the potential risks associated with the ongoing seismic activity. Willsey discusses the possibility of increased earthquake intensity and the conditions that could lead to a tsunami, though he remains cautiously optimistic based on current data.
"With the level of seismic data that we're seeing, there's just not big enough to produce a tsunami." [16:53]
He also addresses the immediate impacts on the island's infrastructure, such as potential landslides and rockfalls, given the steep cliffs that characterize Santorini.
Gracey inquires about the methodologies used to predict volcanic eruptions. Willsey explains that while exact predictions are impossible, scientists can forecast eruptions by analyzing historical data, current seismic activity, ground deformation, and gas emissions.
"We can forecast them just like you do with the weather. You look at the data, you look at the models, and you have a probability." [17:21]
He highlights the complexities involved in distinguishing between fault-induced seismicity and magma movement, a critical factor in accurate forecasting.
The discussion broadens to include comparisons between Santorini and other well-known volcanoes like Kilauea in Hawaii, Mount St. Helens, and Yellowstone. Willsey contrasts the differing magma compositions and eruption styles, underscoring why some volcanoes are more predictable or hazardous than others.
"In Hawaii, we have a very runny, a very fluid type of magma called basalt. And so the gases can escape easily." [21:38]
He points out that while volcanoes like Kilauea exhibit frequent, less explosive eruptions, Santorini's history suggests the potential for rare but massive events.
Responding to Gracey's query about AI's role in volcanic prediction, Willsey acknowledges its burgeoning application but notes limitations due to the infrequency of major eruptions at volcanoes like Santorini.
"As we think about volcanoes, it's important to recognize that the composition of magma beneath each volcano varies." [19:14]
Willsey discusses the criteria for classifying an active volcano and expresses concerns about under-monitored volcanoes in less developed regions. He emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring to mitigate risks associated with potentially dormant yet volatile volcanoes.
"There are volcanoes that we probably need to take more seriously than we do." [27:36]
Touching on the human fascination with volcanic legends, Gracey asks Willsey about the Atlantis theory. While he remains skeptical due to his limited expertise in history, he acknowledges the intriguing interplay between geological events and ancient myths.
"I'm not a history buff per se, so I don't know that much about it." [29:15]
In closing, Willsey advises against jumping to catastrophic conclusions based on current seismic activity. He advocates for informed caution and reliance on scientific data to navigate the uncertainties of volcanic behavior.
"Let scientists do their work. Let the science kind of bear itself out. Take a deep breath and remember that the worst case situations... they're probably not going to happen." [30:28]
Sean Willsey encourages listeners to explore his YouTube channel, Geology Explained, for further educational content on volcanoes and geology.
"I cover educational informational videos... different ways for people to learn about this amazing planet of ours." [29:56]
Off the Radar offers a comprehensive and engaging exploration of Santorini's seismic activities, combining historical context with contemporary scientific insights. Emily Gracey's interview with Sean Willsey provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of volcanic monitoring, the challenges in prediction, and the broader implications for communities residing near active volcanic regions.
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For those interested in learning more about volcanoes and geological phenomena, Sean Willsey's Geology Explained YouTube channel is a valuable resource. Additionally, staying updated with Off the Radar through Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Instagram ensures access to informative discussions on weather, climate, space, and more.