Podcast Summary: Offline with Jon Favreau
Episode Title: Have the Democrats Decided to Win?
Air Date: November 8, 2025
Host: Jon Favreau (with Dan Pfeiffer)
Guest: Simon Bazelon (Democratic Public Opinion Researcher)

Overview

This episode explores the current state and future of the Democratic Party through the lens of Simon Bazelon’s influential report, "Deciding to Win." With over 500,000 post-2024 voter interviews analyzed, Bazelon and the hosts discuss why Democrats have struggled to win in redder areas, how party priorities and messaging have shifted, and what concrete actions could help persuade more voters and pull the party “back from the brink.” The conversation cuts through internal myths, polling errors, and campaign realities—urging Democrats to recalibrate toward a more popular and electable agenda.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Genesis & Methodology of "Deciding to Win" (04:18–05:55)

• Simon Bazelon introduces his background and the origin of the report—stemming from frustration at the party’s lack of introspection after losing the 2024 election.
• Over 500,000 voter surveys were conducted post-2024, making this dataset extraordinarily comprehensive.
  • "In the six months following the 2024 election, we surveyed more than 500,000 voters. That's a lot more than traditional polling outlets." (Simon Bazelon, 05:38)

2. How the Democratic Party’s Priorities Shifted (06:36–09:32)

• Bazelon’s team analyzed the Democratic Party platform language from 2012 to 2024:
  • Identity-focused terms (e.g., “race,” “gender,” “climate,” “hate,” “criminal justice”) increased greatly.
  • Traditional economic terms (“economic,” “middle class,” “jobs,” “America,” “work,” “responsibility”) decreased.
    • "Middle class... declined by about 79%." (07:32, Bazelon)
• Dan Pfeiffer and Favreau note a disconnect: Democratic campaigns still run ads about economic issues, but the “set pieces” of party branding and informal communication have drifted toward other topics.

3. Elite vs. Voter Priorities & Polling Myths (09:45–13:31)

• Highly educated Democratic elites prioritize issues very differently than swing or working-class voters.
  • "College-educated voters who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election have dramatically different priorities than working class voters, swing voters, [and] the general electorate." (09:45, Bazelon)
• Polling practices have become warped: Advocacy groups frame questions to make even controversial policies seem universally popular.
  • Example: Background checks for guns are not a "90%" issue—state referenda show real-world support closer to 55-60%.
    • "We find in our polling the background checks is about a 55% issue... it's still a popular issue relatively, but it doesn't have universal support." (13:31, Bazelon)

4. How Far Left Did the Party Move? (18:04–20:09)

• While the country has become “slightly more liberal” since 2012, the Democratic Party shifted much further and faster to the left.
  • Congressional support for "Medicare for All" doubled; reparations studies and the Green New Deal entered the mainstream.
  • Public perception: Those saying Democrats are "too liberal" rose from 46% (2013) to 55% (2025).
    • "The Democratic Party has moved left a lot more quickly than the country has." (18:22, Bazelon)

5. Why Popular Economic Messages Don’t “Break Through” (25:21–29:05)

• Even with an economic focus in speeches and ads, Democrats often can’t get attention on those issues because they’re constantly on defense about topics like immigration and crime.
  • Republicans, e.g., Trump, “neutralized” Democratic attacks on Social Security and Medicare by promising not to cut them, forcing Democrats to fight on less favorable ground.
  • "One way to get people to talk about economic ideas is to not have unpopular positions on other issues that voters care a lot about." (26:31, Bazelon)

6. Case Study: Ohio and Sherrod Brown’s Defeat (29:43–31:36)

• Sherrod Brown (a disciplined economic populist) lost because Ohio has become a much more Republican state, especially on issues like energy, immigration, and crime.
  • Modern Democratic “moderates” are less conservative than those of past decades—Brown didn’t distance himself from national Democratic positions enough to win.

7. Popular vs. Unpopular Democratic Economic Policies (33:44–36:54)

• Most Popular: Making prescription drugs affordable, protecting Medicare/Social Security, raising the minimum wage, cracking down on tax cheats, free school lunches.
• Unpopular: Subsidized EVs, $3,000 child allowance, universal free college or childcare, Medicare for All, student loan relief.
• Key Insight: Voters prefer means-tested (targeted) programs to universal ones. They dislike giving benefits to high-income people.
  • "Means tested programs are more popular generally speaking than universal programs... voters actually don't like the idea of giving money to rich people." (35:39, Bazelon)
• Policies demanding more from corporations are more popular than creating big new government programs.

8. Immigration—and the Trust Problem (41:26–47:13)

• Democrats’ biggest problem with immigration isn’t a specific policy but a lack of credibility—they’re seen as unable or unwilling to enforce border security.
  • Bernie Sanders’ recent statements, praising border security, might help regain trust, but the party needs to publicly admit past mistakes.
    • "Voters... don't trust Democrats at all to handle border security, because when we were in office, we governed in such a way that really produced a very large influx of unauthorized immigration." (42:51, Bazelon)
• Example: Rep. Tom Suozzi in New York won by engaging the issue directly and credibly supporting border security.

9. Frustration with Elites and Delivering Results (50:19–52:01)

• Americans are frustrated with elites of both parties, but not (contrary to left- or right-wing myth) because they want radical change.
  • The most popular governors make incremental, practical improvements—not sweeping ideological overhaul.
    • "Voters want elites to be focused on the economic issues that they care about, but not to necessarily be radically overthrowing the American economic system." (51:24, Bazelon)

10. The (Dismal) Path to Reform—2028 and Beyond (54:04–60:33)

• Democratic primaries are likely to reward candidates who play to the online, progressive base rather than moderate swing voters—making it hard for electable moderates to break through.
  • "The person who's going to be able to capture social media attention... is not looking like Jared Golden or Marie Glusenkamp Perez or Mary Peltola—who are really good at winning over Trump voters." (55:41, Bazelon)
• Historically, parties only reform after repeated losses. But this time, repeated Democratic defeats would be disastrous for democracy itself.
  • "Are we going to be able to course correct before we lose, or is it going to take another couple losses?... My biggest hope with writing Deciding to Win was... to wake up a lot of forces in the party to some of the realities of public opinion before we lose rather than after." (57:02, Bazelon)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Middle class... declined by about 79% [in the Democratic platform]." (Simon Bazelon, 07:32)
• "Voters want elites to be focused on the economic issues that they care about, but not to necessarily be radically overthrowing the American economic system." (Simon Bazelon, 51:24)
• "Means tested programs are more popular generally speaking than universal programs... voters actually don't like the idea of giving money to rich people." (Simon Bazelon, 35:39)
• "Are we going to be able to course correct before we lose, or is it going to take another couple losses for us to do that?" (Simon Bazelon, 57:02)
• "Tom Suozzi in New York went right at the immigration issue... He wrote an op-ed criticizing some of the Trump administration's actions, but from a point of credibility because he has established himself as somebody who sincerely thinks border security is important." (Simon Bazelon, 47:02)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Intro to Simon Bazelon and Report: 01:22–05:55
• Platform Language & Perception Shifts: 06:36–09:32
• Elite Priorities & Polling Distortions: 09:45–13:31
• Leftward Policy Drift: 18:04–20:09
• Communication Gaps & Attacks: 25:21–29:05
• Ohio/Vulnerable States Analysis: 29:43–31:36
• Popular vs. Unpopular Policies Deep Dive: 33:44–36:54
• Immigration and Border Security Dilemma: 41:26–47:13
• Distrust of Elites/Deliverables: 50:19–52:01
• 2028 Outlook & Party Reform: 54:04–60:33

Tone & Style

The tone throughout is frank, data-driven, occasionally self-deprecating, and pragmatic. Both Bazelon and the hosts probe assumptions and challenge the party to face hard realities, while repeatedly noting the higher stakes for American democracy.

Summary by: Podcast Summarizer AI
Original Podcast: Offline with Jon Favreau | Crooked Media
For: Listeners seeking a detailed, actionable understanding of the episode and its lessons for the Democratic Party’s future.