← Offline with Jon Favreau
Offline with Jon Favreau
The Truth About Young Men's Shift Towards Trump
01:05:53
Why are young men — of all races — moving toward Trump? Are high prices to blame? Their media diets? The Democrats? John Della Volpe, the nation’s leading youth pollster, joins Offline to discuss “Speaking to American Men,” a new $20 million effort to bring young men back into the Democratic coalition. John and his colleagues surveyed more than 1,000 men under 30 and conducted dozens of focus groups to understand what these men think about Donald Trump, the Democrats, and the direction of the country. He sits down with Favreau to share the effort’s initial findings — some surprising, some not — and to explain why reversing their shift toward MAGA may actually be easier than progressives assume.
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- [00:01]
Jon Favreau
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- [01:06]
John Della Volpe
Some of the sweetest young men who talked about the importance of their mom, right, and how they want to like make her proud, who are working multiple jobs and the next minute they're talking about Charlie Kirk, Andrew Tate and Donald Trump. Okay? So we just need to listen, right, and understand what is attractive about the divergence, you would think, in all of those feelings and attitudes. Right? And listening and don't need to like it all, but we just, I just think we just need to listen more because you know what, the other people are listening and what they're doing is far more effective right now.
- [01:45]
Jon Favreau
Welcome to Offline. I'm Jon Favreau. Hey guys. I'm here with my producer Austin.
- [01:54]
John Della Volpe
Hey, everyone.
- [01:55]
Jon Favreau
So, John, we just got over taping. Do you want to tell everyone we just had on today? Yeah. So we. I talked to John Della Volpe, who you might have heard him on. I've had him on the Wilderness. He's been on Podcast of America. He is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics. He has always been particularly focused on pulling young people. He also runs an organization called Social Sphere. They do research focus groups. And he is part of a project known as sam. Sam, yes, indeed. Speaking to American Men, which we've talked about on this pod before, which was. Yeah, and so he was part of a team that did a lot of research already. They did a huge poll, and then he conducted in his team 30 focus groups. And I think he told me, like, 36 different states of young men across all demographic groups in all backgrounds. So listeners may remember Sam as the $20 million effort to study the syntax of young men.
- [02:53]
John Della Volpe
We've talked about on the pod before.
- [02:54]
Jon Favreau
Like you and Max talked about on.
- [02:55]
John Della Volpe
The pod before, mostly to crack jokes.
- [02:57]
Jon Favreau
About it, specifically the recommendation that they should be buying ads in video games. What changed your mind about SAM enough to have John Delaval be on the pod? I think that the folks at SAM got really hosed by the New York Times.
- [03:10]
John Della Volpe
Fair enough.
- [03:12]
Jon Favreau
So. Because I read that in the New York Times, it was this longer New York Times piece, and it was a good piece. I'm not criticizing Shane Goldmacher for this, because he wrote a good piece, but in that piece, they. They mentioned Sam as one of these initiatives that, like, you know, rich Democrats and donors at fancy hotels are talking about, like, how do we reach the people that we have lost? And they're like. Like, for example, young men. And there's this. There's this $20 million effort to talk about how to get the syntax right for young men. And I end up talking notoriously difficult. Yeah, I'm talking to John about this in the interview. But the way I read it was like, yeah, it does sound like Democrats are doing a fucking anthropology project where they're like, beware of the men in the wild when you approach them and do not cancel them. And here's how to speak to them to make sure that, you know. And so it seemed ridiculous to me. Then I found out that John was part of the project, and I was like, john is phenomenal. John gets it. And so there must be more to this than what I read about in the Times. So then we looked into it. We got the report from John, we talked to John, and that's how the conversation started. You and I have both now read this report, or at least the initial findings. Quick, 22 pages. Going through a bunch of graphs on it. I'm curious what you thought about this report, because, like, I'm 28, I'm a man. I could have very easily have been one of the participants surveyed for it. Yeah. And, like, a lot of the economic anxiety that people are feeling. I'm feeling my rent is too damn high. Yeah. A lot of the media consumption habits that they talk about, like getting a lot of right wing content by osmosis, spending a lot of time on YouTube, probably too much time on YouTube, like that is my life. Even a lot of the crypto stuff like, is very familiar to me because like I'm not bullish on crypto, but everyone in my social circle is like, that's just part of the language we speak. So like as someone that is not a 28 year old man that is in this report, like a, like what surprised you from it? And like how does it really, the experience that they talk about in the report differ from your experience in your twenties? Yeah. So the, the thing that didn't surprise me is the economic concerns. Just because I have heard the same things in focus groups that I've done, not just from young men, but young women and young people all over the country and, and older people over the country. Right. Like economic concerns are, are big thing. When I was that age, it was about finding a job because that was post Great Recession. This is different. This is about like I have a job and I still can't afford a home or even rent or as, as John says in almost every focus group he said someone was homeless, experiencing homelessness. So the economic concerns are definitely more acute. I think the other big thing and we get into this is, and we've talked about this a lot of times in the show, the pandemic is such a like bright dividing line where there are all the trends that are in this report were happening before the pandemic. But the pandemic sort of supercharged everything because it's not just economic concerns. It is this loneliness and isolation and these sort of mental health challenges based on sort of talk about it. But it gets very complicated with like traditional notions of masculinity as they interact with modern notions of masculinity. And young men feeling adrift, feeling disconnected from other people, from relationships, not spending enough time with friends and where they go very offline of us is online. Online. And, and that is as, as we know for anyone, not a healthy place to go. And so that creates I think unique challenges for young men. And I don't necessarily think that they're better or worse than other people's challenges. They're just different. They're just, they're, they're very different. And a lot of it is tied up with like these traditional notions of masculinity and as they kind of struggle through those and they're finding incorrect or very, like, political answers on YouTube. It just, it's, it's just interesting for us to, like, learn from them and hear from them. Why do you think it's important that listeners specifically to this pod, understand young men's experience and, like, the relationship to the Democratic Party right now? Yeah. I mean, look, if you want to win elections, the self interested, easy answer is like, we're losing young men. And it doesn't seem like it's necessarily just going to go away with Trump. And so we need to figure out how to win back young men. I also think that if you are concerned about some of the effects of what young men are going through. Right. Which is not just effects on themselves and their own futures, but the effects they have on society and behaviors that might be harmful to others, like if you have sons. I think knowing what these young men are going through and how they're feeling is sort of the first step to figuring out how to help them.
- [07:44]
John Della Volpe
Yeah.
- [07:45]
Jon Favreau
It was really interesting to me that some of the findings in it, though the report focuses on young men feel very universal to people of all ages in this moment. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that's, look, people sort of, we end the conversation this way, but people want to be seen and they want to be respected and they want to be heard. And every, every different demographic group and every different person has, like, whether they are more privileged or less privileged by society. Everyone has struggles and everyone wants to be heard. And that's a universal need that people have. And just because young men might be more privileged in some ways than others doesn't mean they don't have that need.
- [08:22]
John Della Volpe
That feels like a good place to leave us.
- [08:23]
Jon Favreau
Right?
- [08:24]
John Della Volpe
Yeah.
- [08:24]
Jon Favreau
Let's get into it. All right. Here's John Della Volbe. Jon, good to see you.
- [08:31]
John Della Volpe
Great to see you. Thanks for having me.
- [08:33]
Jon Favreau
So I want to start with a personal disclaimer here. Like you, I've spent the last few years concerned and then alarmed that young men seem to be drifting away from the Democratic Party, which was, of course confirmed in a big way after the last election. Then I read this in the New York Times a few weeks ago. Democratic donors and strategists have been commissioning new projects that can read like anthropological studies of people from faraway places. The prospectus for one new $20 million effort aims to reverse the erosion of Democratic support among young men, especially online. It's codenamed Sam, short for Speaking with American Men, and promises invest to quote, study the syntax, language and content that gains attention and virality in these spaces. It recommends buying advertisements and video games, among other things. Now, to me, that did read like an anthropological study of people in faraway places. But then I found out that you were involved in this project. And since you are the country's smartest and most insightful pollster of young people, I immediately second guessed my skepticism and, and figured I'd ask you to come on and so we could chat about it. So maybe you can just start by talking about, like, how you wish the project had been framed in the New York Times.
- [09:44]
John Della Volpe
Thank you. That was a really well traveled, like a sentence or two, right. On a Sunday, inserted into a kind of a broader Sunday piece. But I do wish it was focused on a few other things. Right. The speaking with parts. Okay. Speaking with American men. And listen, this is a demographic group. I'm sure we'll talk about it, where Democrats lost essentially a dozen points in four years. So we need to start with understanding that one. But I think the focus and the mockery was around the syntax line or, or the assumption that a few word choices here, you know, a few ads there, could change what is, I believe, a crisis. Not just the Democratic Party, John, but also for our democracy. Because when people don't feel heard, they don't take part in the democracy. And whichever party you're a part of, that is just not good news. And that's why, you know, I began to kind of circulate kind of my thoughts during and then after the election in terms of what I think collectively we need to do to strengthen our democracy. In this case, strengthen the Democratic Party.
- [10:56]
Jon Favreau
Now, you briefly just mentioned how poorly we did, but I wonder if you could elaborate on that both in, in 2024 and then maybe if you could just talk about the trends sort of across demographics, because I think it was pretty consistent among all young men.
- [11:14]
John Della Volpe
Yeah, sure thing. And listen, young men, and we'll talk about young men. I define them as young men under the age of 30, so 18 to 29 year olds. Okay. This is a cohort that, that Joe Biden won just four years ago. Okay. It was the only age group of men that the Democrat party won in 2020. Okay. That's where we start. Charlie Kirk was actually the first guest on Gavin Newson's podcast when that launched. And what, what Charlie Kirk said was, he said, democrats take this cohort for, for, for, for granted. You know, if we move young men one point a year over 10 years, we'll do our job and we'll Be more competitive. Well, what Charlie Kirk did is he did in basically one cycle. Okay. Which he wanted to do in two and a half cycles. Okay. There was a 12 to 14 point decrease in Democratic support among younger men in this last election. Okay. And women voted for Kamala Harris at 63%. And Donald Trump won young men, according to the latest from Catalyst, which has been out a couple of weeks. But as you said, those kind of election numbers cut across most subgroups within younger men. Democrats lost 10 points among African American black men from 85 to 75%. They lost 16 points with Hispanic Latino men lost them 63 to 47%, lost 6 points with Asian American Pacific Islanders, and I think 4 points with younger white men. So it was across the board, it was dramatic, and it was one of the primary reasons that Donald Trump is in the White House today. The other thing you just talked about, I think, in the New York Times piece, was he talked about the $20 million figure. Right. Clearly, this is a $20 million research operation that would be very like to try someday, but it will be hard to do. Okay, it would be hard to do. But listen, Donald Trump spent $20 million in a couple of months, literally on a couple of months, targeting young men at the end of this campaign. This is a holistic effort organization over two years to listen to and then to kind of engage and then to develop some strategies that some will work, some will be less effective, and we'll learn and we'll share that out over the next couple of years.
- [13:36]
Jon Favreau
I want to get into all the findings and the initial report you guys have, but before we do, there, there is an assumption among some political folks that this was mainly about Trump, but it seems like young men have actually moved right. On several issues. Is that correct?
- [13:56]
John Della Volpe
Yes, I do think, to summarize it, I think it is more about Trump in his Persona rather than his specific policy. But there certainly is an indication, like there was during the first Trump years, that he is a reflection of politics today. So when men are drawn to his kind of Persona, I think there's also a likelihood that they'll support him and other issues. The reverse was in effect in 2018 and 2020. Right. Where. Where younger people were more likely to support free trade, that he was opposed to it as an example. Okay, so. So certainly kind of every cohort is different. But, you know, I think younger people, as they're thinking about their values, reflecting upon present of the time.
- [14:46]
Jon Favreau
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- [15:18]
John Della Volpe
You bet I did. It comes, you can then just, you just throw it in the fridge the night before, then it's just waiting for you the next day.
- [15:25]
Jon Favreau
It's incredibly good.
- [15:26]
John Della Volpe
It tastes, you know, right out of the ocean, you know, feels like they jumped right in your boat. These salmon, I don't know how big they are. Probably too big for that. I'm not sure how big a salmon is. I saw the tuna once when I went to Japan years ago.
- [15:37]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, Tsukiji Fish Market. Those are enormous.
- [15:39]
John Della Volpe
Saw the auctions. So it's like that. But the salmon was excellent.
- [15:43]
Jon Favreau
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- [15:44]
John Della Volpe
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- [16:32]
John Della Volpe
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- [17:07]
Jon Favreau
So let's dig into the report and can you Start by walking us through the methodology and, and why you decided to conduct both a survey and a series of focus groups.
- [17:16]
John Della Volpe
Yeah, sure thing. And by the way, this is a, there's a, there's a team, obviously, it's just not me. I started with what I know best. Right. Which is listening and qualitative research that was in conjunction with probably the largest media study of the habits of, of younger men in a quantitative way. But I'll talk to you about the first part, which is basically the listening tour. And, and I conducted, listened to 30 groups of young men representing 36 states across the country, from churchgoers in Appalachia to the high tech community on the west coast, and virtually kind of everyone in between. Right. We recruited these, and I think this is important, John, not based upon political ideology, party id, who you voted for. We recruited these groups based upon some common lived experience. Okay. So it was. We talked to folks who were educators, we talked to military veterans, we talked to service workers, first generation. You know, we talked to groups based upon the experience that they were bringing in that are kind of shaping their lives and not making any sort of assumptions in any other way. Some of the focus groups were conducted in person, others kind of were online. It's the beginning of, as we talked about, kind of a longer term effort.
- [18:41]
Jon Favreau
So for the purposes of this conversation, I want to divide the findings into two sections. First, what young men are thinking and feeling about their lives and the world. And then second, we can talk about the media they're consuming that help shape those views. On the first part, the report says, quote, the most universal finding across all 30 focus groups was institutional betrayal. And later, that young men have, quote, learned to expect, neglect, not support. So institutional betrayal, it seems like a good description of how a lot of voters feel right now, especially voters who don't consistently vote for Democrats or Republicans. What does that betrayal look like from the vantage point of view, the young men that you spoke to?
- [19:25]
John Della Volpe
So this means that unlike you or I who have had more kind of experience thinking about these issues in voting, this is a generation, I think we've talked about this before that has a very difficult time identifying a moment where government worked on their behalf, where government had their back, or when we all came together as Americans, I always say it doesn't really matter what year you're born necessarily or what month. Month. To me, what identifies a Gen Z er, the young voter of today compared to millennials, were you alive and you have a living memory of nine, 11? Because if you do, you remember September 12 and September 13, when we came together on a common purpose. Okay. Well, Gen Zers don't have that memory. Okay. So they haven't seen any of us for an extended period of time, come together united as Americans want. And then when we talk about the institutional betrayal, I would ask them the question, who has your back? Okay. And we'll talk about what their fears and anxieties are. But other than a friend or family member, they had a very hard time answering that questions. Okay. They don't think that their public education system has their back. They didn't feel prepared for life after high school. Whether that was, you know, the folks who were headed towards college or whether it was folks moving out, trying to establish some independence on their own, trying to figure out, you know, taxes read first month, last month, they didn't feel prepared for that. That's an example of that. Right. Of course, that extends to kind of higher education. Right. And the significant amount of debt that too many young people have to have. And then that also extends in the African American, black, Hispanic and also white community. Right. Lack of faith in the criminal justice system. So we could go on and on and on in terms of the systems designed to protect them, they feel have a abandon them. Right. And that lays the groundwork for grievance, you know, and it opens them up, you know, to messages and messengers. The other thing I think is important to, to. To also talk about here is the impact of COVID And we can, you know, see a sharper decline in the degree to which institutions are trusted pre and post Covid. And I've also done a lot of other, I think, really interesting research last couple months on my own and also with Harvard about the impact five years later that code is having kind of on this generation specifically as it relates to politics.
- [21:52]
Jon Favreau
Now, I know you focus mainly on young people in your. In your polling and your focus groups, so I want to ask about other age cohorts, but why do you think it is that. That young men, or do young men have more institutional distrust than young women in the same age bracket?
- [22:14]
John Della Volpe
Well, I think that younger women, I don't want to, you know, stereotype, obviously. Right. But when I talk to younger women, they would say that they believe that the party, Democrat party, or government generally is in touch with them, that they're trying to. When the Supreme Court took away their right to reproductive health, that they felt like there was a movement to defend. Defend that as one example. And by the way, men also support women in that particular issue, by and large. Right. But they don't feel like they are understood or that their challenges or agreements, etc are being heard. So I do think that women clearly feel more represented by establishment, specifically by Democrat party. And John, you don't need to take my word for it, right? A young man or young woman can go to the DNC page today and they could see the people that we serve. And a young woman would say would see women on that page. A young man would not see men, they'd see a dozen plus other groups, but they wouldn't necessarily look at that and feel like a Democratic Party in its traditional way sees them.
- [23:29]
Jon Favreau
So clearly you find, you know, economic concerns are central. And there are a couple of quotes that stood out to me. The young black professional who said, my grandfather was working for the trash company for the city and got a house for his five kids and was good, I can't buy a house right now. There's also a young Asian American professional who said, even with a six figure salary, I feel poor. How much of this moment and the anxiety you heard do you prescribe to high costs and especially the high cost of housing?
- [24:01]
John Della Volpe
I think housing is clearly kind of a driving factor. Beyond those quotes, there's virtually not a single focus group that I can assemble in any state of any cohort of younger people. In some cases it's more than one person who indicates that they are currently had recently been on the verge of being homeless. Right? And not always homeless like we see in Harvard Square or in San Francisco or la, but you know, couch surfing from friend to friend to friend to friend to friend, right? There was a young person I spoke with in a focus group in Minneapolis. He had been homeless twice in his short life. Once during the Great Recession when he was in a, lived in a tent on his grandmother's front lawn, and a second time while, while he was in college. So it gets to, I think, the, the traditional milestones, John, that we all took for granted, right? Millennial, Gen Xers, baby boomers, et cetera, that when you enter, you know, the next stage of your life after adolescence and teenage years and you're 20 somethings, right? That you could afford a home, you could afford some sort of financial stability that is robbed from you. And there is an opportunity, I think, for, for younger men to question, right, who has their back, right? And that I think that sense of, of, of instability around housing is something that clearly I think feeds a lot of the, the disappointment, the disengagement that we're, we're, we're hearing out there have.
- [25:30]
Jon Favreau
You found that economic concerns among younger men are more acute than economic concerns among younger women.
- [25:40]
John Della Volpe
Not necessarily. I mean, there's a. There's that element. Right. When it, when it cuts to. The difference, I think, is we should talk about younger women for a second as well. But the difference, I think, is those economic concerns cut at the heart of one's identity, you know, if you're a younger man in ways that may not be the same for younger women. Right. I sent several messages out to friends in the final weeks of the Harris campaign. Okay. Last year. And basically the point I was making, I think, was that I don't think there's a recognition among younger women that they want to hear more from Democrats on the economy. Okay. The younger women I talked to kind of the late deciders, that's what they want to hear about. Right. They were intelligent to know that even in a Harris presidency, their rights to reproductive health wouldn't be guaranteed, certainly not for a significant amount of time. Right. So they really want to hear more about the economy. So the economy and all the things related to it certainly kind of transcend other issues, I think, for both men and women. But for men, it's more complex because I get. It cuts to the core of their identity and the idea of what it means to be masculine and successful.
- [26:59]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. I was going to say it feels like it's connected to traditional notions of what men. What role men are supposed to play in their families and in society. Right. Which is supposed to be a provider. Right. And, you know, we can say it's an antiquated notion, and in many ways it is, but it's. It's still a very real feeling among young men.
- [27:20]
John Della Volpe
It sounds like almost to a person. Right. And. And if you can't provide for yourself. Right. How can you provide for others? Right. And, you know, you hear these things, but it could really connect the dots. When I'm in Las Vegas, I'm talking to Hispanic, Latino men and who have a responsibility, you know, to carry on their family name. Right. And to make their. Their. Their parents and their grandparents who sacrifice so much proud. Right. And if you go to college, you still can't afford something. Right. Then that cuts it who you are. And the same, you know, similar, you know, shades of that I think we found throughout the 30 groups.
- [27:59]
Jon Favreau
So the report also notes that young men are more likely to be tech optimists and embrace AI and crypto, at least in comparison to most Americans. I've certainly noticed that's true for plenty of. Of friends of mine. People that I've known, especially, you know, over the last couple years, suddenly a lot of crypto enthusiasts. What do you think that's about?
- [28:20]
John Della Volpe
Well, I think it gets back to the beginning of where we talked about. Right. When institutions fail them. Right. They need to find ways outside of the traditional pathways to create some stability. Right. It's a, it's a, it's a gamble, obviously. Right. You know, it's just not crypto. Right. It's a combination, I think, of crypto and I've written a lot about this on my substack, but it's, It' sports betting, you know, and it's kind of other, other forms of, of gambling. Those who are most committed to, to crypto. Right. The ones that are often kind of, you know, stereotype, etc. Listen, only maybe 60, 65% of those are Trump voters. Okay. So Democrats have a third of those heavily invested in crypto as part of that coalition. And like, I think older groups, when I follow up in additional surveys, they're looking for more regulation. Right. And more thought leadership on this space. Right. So again, we need to understand kind of why, what the psychology is in terms of why they're investing there, I think what makes them different, but also what Democrats can do. I'm not promoting any policy, but, you know, to make some sort of connections and to rebuild some, some, some trust in some way.
- [29:34]
Jon Favreau
No, I mean, I think that's important because a prevailing explanation I've heard about Democrats in Congress or Democratic elected officials who are more favorable towards crypto is, well, the crypto industry spends a lot of money on elections now. And you've got these big super PACs that crypto, you know, interests fund, and they'll come into a race and they'll dump a bunch of money on, on a Democrat if they're an opponent of crypto. And I'm sure that is very true. I mean, we've seen that in races. But it does seem like another reason that Democratic officials, elected officials, could be more open to crypto, even as they try to regulate it, is because there's a good number of their constituents and particularly young men who are into crypto.
- [30:21]
John Della Volpe
Yes. And again, my, my whole approach to all of this research is we need to find some shared experiences. Right. To build from. Right. And that, and that is one prime way to begin to do that. Certainly not the only way, but it's, it's one way.
- [30:36]
Jon Favreau
So economic challenges, clearly top of mind. You also heard a lot about societal expectations around masculinity and how that relates to Mental health challenges young men are facing, particularly, the report notes, feelings of shame, which the report calls, quote, the silent force shaping their lives. Can you explain that?
- [30:56]
John Della Volpe
Again, these are, these are coming out, as I heard, virtually in, in every group. So I talk about masculinity being as much of a burden as a blueprint, okay? And what I mean by that is that we talked a little bit about the traditional definition of masculinity. Being as the strong, as the provider. Okay. And when you can't provide for yourself, that, that eats at you, depressing you, makes you anxious, more open to grievance. That's part one. The other part is the modern definition of masculinity is also being vulnerable and being sensitive. Too many young people tell us, you know, across these groups that when they extend themselves in that position, they feel like they're mocked, okay? So that's why they're, they're. They feel like they're kind of trapped inside this modern, traditional place where they don't have the tools to get out, okay? And that makes them feel bad. It depresses them. And the challenge that we heard was that virtually everyone else in their friend or peer group is dealing with the same issues. So rather than talking to a friend or a buddy about how they're feeling and those things, they don't want to overburden them. Okay? So then they kind of hold it or I think I talk about some, some destructive behaviors, right, that emerge from that, you know, including potentially getting into some pretty dark places kind of online. That's, that's kind of one part of the shame of not being that kind of traditional masculine person. One, they have other shame. We heard in a variety of places, some white people, white men, are shamed for being white. You know, a teacher in Ohio doesn't feel like he could use his voice because his group has had privilege over the last, you know, decades and centuries before that, that he doesn't feel necessarily kind of represented, that he's benefited from that necessarily. Right. But he feels shame just based upon who he is. Okay? We heard other forms of shame from, from folks who worked really hard to create what we might call a traditional home. Right. Like, I don't know if I talked about him, but There's a young 20 something mechanic in Nevada, you know, who is married and has a young child, and it's important to the wife and, and him that they, that she stays at home to raise a child. He feels shame for that decision. Right? And he feels that, you know, folks like me on the east coast and folks like you on the west coast are part of that. So I hear a lot about that. I think it's, it is that silent force shaping their lives. And you know, we've talked before about the significant depression that we've tracked at the Harvard poll for, for many years. And we know that men are more likely than women, obviously to do self harm and other things. And it's, it's a real burden. It's a real burden. And again, they just want to feel listened to. These focus groups, John, you know, they almost always turn into like an organic, like hangout or almost therapy session. Hey, buddy, I didn't know you had the same thing. You know, what are you doing? You want to continue this afterwards? Happens more times than we think. Actually, after these focus groups, they just enjoy being listened to.
- [34:15]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I was just thinking when you spoke about sort of traditional notions of masculinity and the people you talked to struggling with that, you know, that's been the case throughout history, throughout decades. I think what's different is two things. One, and you mentioned this, the modern notion of masculinity is that you, you're more sensitive, more, more open to talking about your feelings. But, but when men do that, they feel, you know, ashamed for that. Also, I do think the pandemic, and we just talked about this too, just the isolation that happened during the pandemic has not really gone away totally. Like, there has been a bit of a shift in culture where people just aren't having those in person connections like they used to. And I think women are probably better about making those connections and making sure they're seeing each other in real life. And I think men who were never as good at that anyway in a post pandemic world are having an even harder time trying to figure out when to spend in person time with their friends. And, you know, online's a very easy substitute for that.
- [35:28]
John Della Volpe
I think that's spot on. And if you particularly think of that from the perspective of teenagers, okay, so teenage or young women generally have more friends, right. And they generally are closer, think about, to their teachers, right. To their parents, to other kind of mentors. It just takes men oftentimes, right. A couple more years to kind of catch up. Okay, so listen, the pandemic was horrific for every single subgroup. Okay. But women, younger women went into it with just a little bit more of a support structure, okay. Than younger men. And we could see that five years later when we asked the degree to which you've got, you know, you feel isolation, social connections, Et cetera. And younger women can reported slightly better outcomes than younger men did. And think about this too. The first time voters, okay, those folks who are 18, 19 years old voted for the first time in 2024 where they were just transitioning, John, from, from middle school to ninth grade, okay, where they didn't have usually that new cohort of friends. So they were particularly lonely. And we can see actually a 10 point increase in that particular age group for feeling more isolated today. Okay. The same thing happens with the 23, 24 year olds, you know, who are transitioning from high school to college. So we have to be quite sensitive of that. In another study that I published on my substack a month or two ago was that the younger men who tell us they lost more kind of experiences and social connections than others, they're the ones most likely to subscribe to the authoritarian rhetoric and messaging. So there's a direct correlation there.
- [37:14]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I mean if you. That's. I hadn't thought about that. But if you have missed the transition from middle school to high school, where there's a whole new group of friends, which is such an important time and such a fraught time, and you're going through adolescence and you spend that time by yourself largely. And same thing with high school and college. That is a. That's gonna really leave a mark.
- [37:37]
John Della Volpe
Clearly has.
- [37:45]
Jon Favreau
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- [38:56]
John Della Volpe
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- [39:29]
Jon Favreau
So here's a line that caught my eye. Many young men feel sidelined by progressive narratives that do not fully acknowledge their struggles or aspirations. I felt like that's a diplomatic way of saying young men who are struggling would rather not sign up for a team that often labels them privileged or problematic. Is that a fair translation?
- [39:50]
John Della Volpe
Yeah. Yeah, for sure. And they also don't want to play for a team that is weak. Right. And. And, you know, people talk about like weak and and and woke up again. I think that we talk a lot about the divides in America. Left, right, male, female, young, old, you know, and I think the divide we need to be talking about is the divide between the herd and the unheard or the herd and the invisible. And not only, not only are Democrats not considered to be kind of engaging or hearing or listening to them. 1. Okay. Is that when younger men do acknowledge the presence of Democrats or that their policies are actually more thoughtful and potentially kind of more impactful for them. Okay. They don't believe that Democrats are able to see those policies through so they can ultimately kind of impact their life. So it's not just about the wokeness or weakness from a physical situation. It's. It's the weakness around kind of the political muscle or lack therein. Right. Republicans, Trump, they're not winning on ideas. I don't think they're winning on kind of identity and this perception of strength and might.
- [41:12]
Jon Favreau
Yeah, I want to get back to that because the authoritarian tendencies that they seem to be gravitating to was probably one of the most alarming things for me to read. But on the progressive narratives, I thought about the. This quote in the report from someone who said, I'm ashamed because I'm a white man, because there are some old white guys. It feels like, you know, sometimes I feel like I shouldn't have a say in things. So it's interesting that it's generational there. Right. And that it's specifically, this is something that young men are grappling with, which is they see older white guys running everything, which is, you know, they're correct, by and large. Right. Way overrepresented. And I'm sure they see older white guys causing a lot of problems and they've gone through a reckoning. And then they think, okay, well, those are older white guys. And yeah, they have a lot of privilege, but I'm still struggling with all this stuff, so how am I lumped in with the older white guys? And it's a dynamic I hadn't quite thought of, but it would make sense for why younger men are shifting more. Right. Than even older men have been shifting over the last several cycles.
- [42:20]
John Della Volpe
Yeah. And I push back a handful of times, which is, come on, guys. I mean, we've had it pretty good for, like, a long time. Right. And they would quickly. Tour person would say, you guys did. You have grandparents did. Right. My. My father. Someone would say, right. Like you talked about, like, was the garbage man. Right. Or was a house painter, you know, and was able to kind of have a home and raise a beautiful family. And someone with. He talked about a finance degree, can't even envision that situation. Right. So it doesn't necessarily apply to young men in this moment. I don't think they're asking for much. Right. I think they just want to be respected. Right. And I think they just want to be taken kind of as seriously as they see other cohorts within the Democratic Party or kind of across the country, even beyond politics that they also, I think, could. Could benefit from, you know, ways to bring them into a process. They're not apathetic. They think the country in many ways, has kind of given up on them. I don't think they've given up on the country necessarily.
- [43:33]
Jon Favreau
All right, so the report says there is a generational tolerance for authoritarian tendencies. Is that about young men wanting a government that delivers, that actually acts that. That actually does something? Or what are the authoritarian tendencies that you have heard from the people you talk to?
- [43:57]
John Della Volpe
Yeah, I think it's about understanding, you know, you need to. You need to put this into perspective to everything that we've said so far. Right. That the institutions designed to protect and offer up an opportunity for. For your best life have essentially going to fail them. Right. The traditional politics, democracy, they believe is failing them. So therefore, okay, what do we need to do to try to find new ways to provide opportunities for us to live our best life? That I think is kind of what they're Looking at. And there is some respect for strength. There's respect for having an idea and finding every way possible to achieve it and to see it through. I think that's kind of what we're doing. We're talking about. We're certainly not. By and large, I didn't really hear anything about, at the exclusion of any other group. Right. It's about that strength and, and working the system to the benefit of folks who don't feel, listen to and are on the, on the fringes. I think that's what we're talking about.
- [45:02]
Jon Favreau
How did these young men talk about women? Did you get any sense of any sexism, any resentment, anything like that?
- [45:12]
John Della Volpe
It was interesting. I think within the first hour of the first group, you know, Angry Tate came up. So this was not a shy group, I heard. And, you know, the thing I'm saying doesn't mean it's representative or it's projectable to all younger men, but I certainly heard multiple people across the group say they felt like women had it easier than men today. Right. And that. That cuts across, you know, important parts of their lives. Right. Whether it's about economic opportunities, whether it's about dating opportunities. And that's where I would push back and say we had a pretty good run. Doesn't really land very well. Right. But I think there was just a lot of frustration right around, basically. I think the frustration, like, I would think of, like, the traditional role reversal. Right. Whereas, like, on the dating. Right. They feel like women are in charge now. Right. And that they don't have as much control over their dating and, and social life. There are multiple people who talked about the frustration of, like, women not getting back to them. Okay. And how frustrating that is. Right. So you certainly heard that, and you certainly heard, you know, kind of frustrations around lots of economic kind of opportunities, those sorts of things. Right. But. And, you know, that's something that they're. That they're talking about and trying to figure out, and it's part of, you know, kind of what they're thinking about now for sure.
- [46:34]
Jon Favreau
Well, Andrew Tate is a good lead into the. The next topic. Let's talk about young men's media habits. I think some people might be surprised to learn that the, the platform where young men consume most of their information isn't Tick Tock or Instagram or any social media platform. It's YouTube by a pretty significant margin, too, according to the study. Can you talk about that finding and tell us a little bit about what kind of content young men are watching on YouTube?
- [46:59]
John Della Volpe
Yeah. You know, I started thinking about this a couple of years ago, right? And this really interesting nexus of, of, of YouTube and some of the more traditional TikTok and Reddit Discord, the combination of these kinds of factors. But younger men will tell you, right, they're looking to YouTube for what they would call kind of longer form pieces. Okay? So that could be longer form around learning something, right? Kind of history or news related things, you know, this is an example of that actually. Right. And obviously so much of the podcast community, you know, kind of viewed through YouTube, so that's a prime example of that, right? And then there's like an extended significant number of people, well over 50% are going on a regular basis, right. For how to things. Right. How to cook something, right. How to fix your car, kind of how to. There's obviously kind of fitness things, there's a variety of, of things that. But YouTube is essentially kind of their home base that they're going to on a regular basis for everything from news and information to fitness to culture to music, to podcasts, to virtually everything. And the important thing to understand is that each of those experiences on YouTube or developing trust in some way, right? People trust you, they listen to you on a regular basis and they trust you, right? That's why they're willing to buy the products that you endorse, right? Because you have a loyal audience and they trust you for that. Well, it's the same thing, you know, in politics, right, where you're listening and you're taking direction on how to bench press or how to have a conversation or, you know, a variety of other things. And then, you know, politics gets woven into that and that is a meaningful kind of experience. So that's why I think it's important to kind of understand the relationship that younger people have with YouTube.
- [48:52]
Jon Favreau
95% watch gaming content on YouTube. That is wild. Like I knew, I knew gaming was popular with young men, but like that is a, a huge number. And it was interesting to me that then the next category is learning, 54% learning. And that is the how to guides that you're telling. We're just learning about history or learning about something like that. And then news at 52% and sports 41%, which is interesting because when people talk about young men and winning back young men, the first thing you go to is sports, sports, sports. And it's, it's clearly important here, but not nearly as much as, as gaming.
- [49:27]
John Della Volpe
No. And when, when, you know, during some of these conversations will someone will throw in like A wacky conspiracy theory. You know, saying, really interesting. Where, where did you learn that? Right? And this one guy said, you know, it was on YouTube. I said, really? When he goes, well, I woke up in the middle night, I was gaming. I said, okay, interesting. I'm not sure it's gaming. Whatever. All right? And then like it led to whatever this conspiracy theory was, right? So each of these things, it's only a click or two or three at most, right? Away from some pretty far. Right. Wacky, wacky, wacky things here, right? And some know that, right? Some know, you know, and I think there's some quotes in this report which is they can't get away from Andrew Tate if they wanted to. Right. They unsubscribe. They're not following anything within that orbit. But he's still showing up across multiple social platforms. So, like, that isn't just content, right? This is like a conditioning thing. Right. The algorithms know and the people driving those algorithms know where, you know, kind of where quote, men are and then they're can condition him with all this other content.
- [50:35]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. The, the focus group participant said, against my will, I see so many Andrew Tate videos. And another told you that after they got out of a long term relationship, their account was bombarded with self improvement, religious and right wing content. Why do you think this content is ending up in young men's feeds regardless of their politics, regardless if they make the choice to see it?
- [50:56]
John Della Volpe
Yeah, I mean, I remember like he was like a young, Think he was a, he was from Ohio, a young, you know, gay kid who, who, who cannot not get Andrew Tate stuff. Right? So I don't think he's, I don't think he's, he's not looking for it all at risk. Right. But listen, it just shows you, I think that this may not be a strategic, you know, kind of a surgical strategy. Right. It seems to be that this is going to air cover, right? That perhaps the far right is just bombarding people just based perhaps on their age and their gender and perhaps their skin color. I don't know. I don't know how else you can necessarily can explain that. Right? Yeah, but some of them are sophisticated enough to see that and try to distance themselves from it. Yeah, but it's, it's, it's, it's hard, especially when there's a vacuum. That's the point of this project, right. That this isn't just about research. There is a team led by Elise and Shauna and others, right, who are developing programs to lift up the individuals in each of these places where younger men are engaging to support them and whatever way makes sense, whether it's kind of financially, whether it's through additional resources. So there can be some counter to these narratives. Because the point is that there's really not a counter. There's a vacuum here. And listen, we all knew that. But it's helpful to, I think, begin to map that and to identify ways in which it is appropriate to engage.
- [52:27]
Jon Favreau
Well, I was pleasantly surprised that the most trusted outlets among young men are local newspapers and local tv, which is true for most people, npr, national newspapers like the New York Times, which is the most widely read publication among young men by quite a bit. I was surprised about that because you just, you wouldn't necessarily think that people who listen to NPR and read the New York Times would shift more towards Trump than any other demographic. What did you make of sort of both the sources of information they're getting out of legacy media and sort of the trust they have in some of those sources?
- [53:03]
John Della Volpe
Well, I think again, this is an example of, you know, this is not a monolith. And although Trump did 12, 14 points better among this group, it's not an 8020 situation. Right? Right. It's, it's, it's not 8020 situation. Right. So I do think that there is some real polarization here. Right. And you've got kind of independent and, and left leaning people who find confidence and those sources, you know, But I think the real driver of this conversation that we're having, the driver of the conversations that I had kind of on the road is what they're picking up in these forums is what they're picking up on, on, on Twitch, on Reddit, on Discord. You know, what they're hearing and seeing on YouTube. That is the place where I think that we need to basically kind of provide a counterbalance to, to what's happening because these conversations are happening there and there's a, there's an appropriate way to engage foreign.
- [54:15]
Jon Favreau
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- [55:37]
John Della Volpe
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- [56:12]
Jon Favreau
More than four out of five young men listen to podcasts and the four most popular pods. Joe Rogan, Theo Vaughn, Tucker Carlson, and Ben Shapiro. Yikes.
- [56:22]
John Della Volpe
There you go. There you go. Add all that up. Right? But that gets the point. I think Dan posted and wrote about this. It's. To me, it's not about finding a Joe Rogan of the left. Right. I don't think he's on the right. You know, obviously, in the last couple of days, in the last couple of months, clearly, I don't think he's been, you know, kind of in that camp, but it's about understanding what makes those folks attractive. Okay. What makes them question why Democrats don't go on. They know that certain Democrats go on and. And certain Democrats don't. Right. And they understand that Democrats don't choose to go on those because it's like this conversation. You can't script a one hour conversation. You certainly can't script talking points with a two or three hour conversation. Right. So by definition, they feel like Democrats are cautious. Right. And unsure of themselves and therefore unwilling to do that. And they, and they remember that. Right. And they also remember it's come up, up a bunch of different times. But Charlie Kirk as an example on the other side, you know, we'll take any question. Okay. You know, and something, again, Democrats are kind of unwilling to do. So I think it's, it's not about left and right. It's about are you willing to have an extended conversation about what you really believe. Right. Yeah, that's what I think it's about. And they recognize Pete, of course, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. And by the way, I think Democrats last couple of months have done a good job engaging in platforms outside of the traditional. Cory Booker as an example. You know, Westmore, there are a lot of examples, I think, of the last couple of months and hopefully that will continue. Just didn't happen, I think in the last four years as much as it should have.
- [58:06]
Jon Favreau
Well, there's two parts to this, right? There's Democratic politicians being willing to go on shows and talk on platforms where, you know, the, the political leanings of the audience are either mixed or further to the right. Right. That's like number one. Number two is, you know, I looked at that list of the podcast, right? You know, Joe Rogan, Theo Vaughn, they're not like right wing, right. They're, you know, they have some conservative views, right. They, you know, they had Trump on all that kind of stuff. But then you get, you know, Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson and I feel like the left, when we have tried, I mean, because we've obviously thought about this quite a bit here at Crooked Media, but the left, when we try, you know, some of the suggestions you hear you, it's like, oh, we need some, some Gen Z influencers who are Democrats and then they'll do a show. And those shows end up being A, primarily about politics, right. And B, like very openly partisan and almost sound scripted. Like it's like you're getting DNC talking points. And I, and I wonder, like, what would be the kind of shows that young men might be interested in or the kind of qualities in a host that young men might be interested in that aren't explicitly political but but still healthy enough that it would probably, you know, help young men and, you know, the Democratic Party attract Young men.
- [59:27]
John Della Volpe
I love that question. When I do these town halls and these focus groups again, we. We barely talked about politics, right. We talked about like the experience of young men, right. Because I believe you cannot have a political conversation. You can't worry about the syntax, John, right. Until you understand this life experience that they're bringing. Right. And every group of young voters has a very unique experience, right. Just based upon how to specific life. Right. So finding a place which most of these podcasts do certainly like not, I think now about like Andrew Schultz podcast, right. Like you guys, okay, where you're talking as a group of younger now millennial men, right. About kind of shared interest and sharing something about your personal life. Okay. Primarily it has to be though, right. I think without seemingly to defend the traditional institutions that we talked about the beginning of this hour. Right. Have betray them, which is often what the DNC talking points will say, right? So like this space where. Where people can have conversations like the ones I've shared, right. And perhaps here, right. That older folks, right. Might have had different experiences. But you know, we talked about the last couple hundred years of this country. There have been these crises around masculinity. This isn't necessarily unique in our history. It's unique to this moment. So I think one is it needs to be this like anti institutional recognition, right. The institutions have largely failed with one. The second thing, I do think that there needs to be this shared recognition that we hear you, we're supportive of each other, not at the. The exclusion of anybody else. And then I think there needs to be a place and I try to do this in my groups, which is, what do you care about? Like, healthcare is a top three concern, right. And then I'll say, you know, when I was your age, I don't think I had health care, right. I was working on campaigns for $100 a week. We don't have any health care. Why do you think you have health care now? I don't know. Right. Well, there is a thing called the Affordable Care act, right. What party do you think? Think, you know, whatever. And then we can have a meaningful conversation, right, about that and kind of connect it to something that they really care about. So that's where I think it is. I think they need to kind of hear and share this common culture. It can't be defending institutions that don't work. And it has to kind of weave in just like the right does. We've in examples of government actually working rather than not working, which is the opposite of what Tucker Carlson is doing. He's always talking about how, you know, the institutions don't work, never worked, and won't work in the future.
- [62:05]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. I also think there's a. Those of us who, you know, are on the left side of the political spectrum, we've learned to do some, some self editing around difficult, touchy conversations even, even as we've been talking about, you know, some of the findings. Right. You almost have to, you want to couch some of the language because what you don't want to say is, poor young men, they have it so much worse than women. And they're, and they're, you know, then you become like, like you start veering into like the men's rights activist cohort. But sometimes you just have to have those very honest, difficult conversations without worrying that anything you say is suddenly going to be taken out of context or you're going to be jumped. Right. And like, I think that's something that, that probably people on our side have to learn too, which is like, just because we are talking about something or trying to explore a subject here and, and a lot of this stuff is very tricky, right? Doesn't mean we endorse this or doesn't mean our values have changed. It's just we're trying to work through it because guess what? Millions of people out there are trying to work through this in their own lives, and we might as well talk about the hard stuff to try to push people in a better direction than sound like we're self editing and just not wanting to, you know, touch the hot stove.
- [63:20]
John Della Volpe
Listen, I've got three kids in their, in their 20s, and my son just turned 30 actually. Right. But some of the sweetest young men who talked about the importance of their mom, right? And how they want to, like, make her proud. We'll work in multiple jobs and the next minute they're talking about Charlie Kirk, Andrew Tate and Donald Trump. Okay? So we just need to listen, right? And understand what is attractive about the divergence, you would think, in all of those feelings and attitudes. Right. And listening and don't need to like it all. But we just, I just think that we just need to listen more because, you know, what the other people are listening and what they're doing is far more effective right now.
- [64:04]
Jon Favreau
Yeah. It's not pandering, it's listening. It's meeting people where they are, but then not leaving them there, then trying to use persuasion just like you do in politics, to sort of like, move them to a better direction, but do it in a way that sort of extends Grace and understanding, which is sort of with every demographic group, the best way to do that. So, yes, yes.
- [64:24]
John Della Volpe
By the way, that's the thing. Like, this was mocked at the beginning, right? Because it's a focus on younger men. There are a dozen other probably projects around, other cohorts of the electorate. I think they should all be taken seriously. Right? We should be constantly listening, engaging with all groups. AARP is doing tons of work. Right. With older voters. But we should always be doing this. We should always be doing this.
- [64:48]
Jon Favreau
Well, and then doing it that way gets to sort of a universal truth and a universal need, which is everyone, no matter who you are, what you look like, like, wants to be heard, wants to be respected, wants to be recognized, wants to be seen, whether you have been privileged by society or not, right? Like, that's just a universal need that people have. And when you recognize that need, that's how you start to build political coalitions. I think that go across these different demographic groups, and that's something that we may have lost over the last decade or so.
- [65:22]
John Della Volpe
I wrote a chapter in my book about this. One of the high points of the Biden 2020 effort. Okay. Was around St. Patrick's Day. Okay. And when Sanders was about to exit the race. Okay. And what then Vice President Biden said to the Sanders supporters, I hear you. Okay? I hear you. And sometimes those three simple words mean so much. And that is what younger people are asking for, specifically younger men.
- [65:48]
Jon Favreau
John Della Volpe, thank you as always for joining the pod and thanks for all the work you're doing. Really fascinating, Stu. And you'll have to come back and talk about it again when you guys have more findings and recommendations. So thank you.
- [66:01]
John Della Volpe
I appreciate the time, as always. Thanks, John.
- [66:05]
Jon Favreau
As always. If you have comments, questions or guest ideas, email us@offlinecrucket.com and if you're as opinionated as we are, please rate and review the show on your favorite podcast platform. For ad free episodes of Offline and Pod, Save America exclusive content and more. Join our friends at the podcast subscription community@qriket.com friends and if you like watching your podcast, subscribe to the Offline with Jon Favreau YouTube channel. Don't forget to follow Crooked Media on Instagram, TikTok and the other ones for original content, community events and more. Offline is a Crooked Media production. It's written and hosted by me, John Fabric Favreau, along with Max Fisher. The show is produced by Austin Fisher and Emma Illich Frank Jordan Kantor is our sound editor, Audio support from Charlotte Landis and Kyle Seglin. Delon Villanueva produces our videos each week. Jordan Katz and Kenny Siegel take care of our music. Thanks to Ari Schwartz, Madeline Herringer and Adrian Hill for production support. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.
- [67:27]
John Della Volpe
My favorite part about having US Cellular home Internet is all the things it lets me do. Its quick connection lets me enjoy things like streaming my shows, keeping up with my friends online, taking work calls without lagging and not having to stress about cost.
- [67:40]
Jon Favreau
Switch to US Cellular and do the.
- [67:42]
John Della Volpe
Things you love with you. Love just $39.99 a month when bundled with a wireless plan. And if you don't love it, you have 15 days to let us know. Terms apply. Visit uscellular.com for details.
- [67:55]
Jon Favreau
Summer is coming right to your door with Target Circle360. Get all the season go tos delivered just when you want them. Snacks, towels and even pillows.
- [68:04]
John Della Volpe
Get it all delivered the same day.
- [68:06]
Jon Favreau
With target circle 360.
- [68:08]
John Della Volpe
Restrictions apply.