Ologies with Alie Ward: Revolutionology (Rebellions & Social Change) with Jack Goldstone
Release Date: September 24, 2025
Guest: Dr. Jack Goldstone, professor, author, and revolutionologist
Episode Overview
This episode dives deeply into the science, stories, and patterns of revolutions and social change. Alie Ward interviews Dr. Jack Goldstone, a renowned scholar who’s dedicated his life to understanding how and why governments fall—or persist—while tracing the anatomy and evolution of uprisings, mass movements, and regime overthrows. They explore everything from the historical roots of revolutions to the modern dynamics of protest in the internet age, including what actually sparks revolutionary moments, why some remain nonviolent, and the dark sides of upheaval. The discussion is laced with wit, accessibility, and urgency as both historical lessons and present-day parallels are examined.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Defining Revolutions: Myths, Models, and Mechanics
[04:18 – 07:23]
- Dr. Goldstone’s Origin Story: A fascination with why governments do “stupid things,” especially getting overthrown by their own people, drove his lifelong study of revolution.
- “There’s a myth of revolution as a heroic thing” (09:29): Jack emphasizes that while revolutions can birth freedom and democracy, they're not always positive—their ‘dark side’ often leads to violence and new forms of oppression.
- Species of Revolution: Not all revolutions are the French Revolution—violent, with people “hanging from lampposts.” Nonviolent revolutions have become more widespread in modern times.
2. Anatomy of a Revolution
[10:37 – 16:19]
- It’s a Process, Not an Event: Revolutions often unfold over decades, sometimes sparking civil wars or being interrupted by coups.
- “The two key things are mass mobilization and the aim of radically changing government” (11:41): Scale isn’t always the factor; success often hinges on government weakness.
- Examples: Tiananmen Square was a “revolutionary episode,” even though it involved a student minority; the attempted U.S. insurrection on January 6th, 2021, could have turned revolutionary if small numbers had achieved regime change.
Notable Quote:
“A government that holds the support of its military and business elites is nearly impossible to overthrow, regardless of street turnout.” — Goldstone [15:29]
3. What Makes Governments Vulnerable to Revolution
[19:19 – 24:20]
- Elite Defections Matter: When key administrative, military, or business leaders lose faith, even large governments can quickly collapse.
- Bahrain, Hong Kong, and Tunisia: Illustrative cases where turnout did or didn’t matter—government resolve and external support (e.g., military) are decisive.
Notable Quote:
“If the government is weak, maybe this is our time to push it over... people see nobody stopping them, so they act.” — Goldstone [16:19]
4. What Comes After? The Messy Aftermath
[22:26 – 27:47]
- No Universal Model: Each revolution’s aftermath is unique; some are seized by charismatic leaders (Napoleon), others experience persistent chaos or foreign interference.
- Success Depends on Elite Defections: Smooth handovers often depend on how many from the old guard defect or are ousted; sometimes chaos reigns.
- Ukraine’s “Revolution of Dignity” is traced, including Zelensky’s meteoric rise, and how external intervention can escalate (i.e., Putin’s invasion post-2014).
5. Triggers & Motivations – It’s Not Just Economic Misery
[29:56 – 34:31]
- Common Myth Debunked: Hardship alone doesn’t spark revolution; revolutions require disaffected elites and emotional mobilization, not just poverty.
- Elites Turning Inward: When “credentialed” or “plutocratic” elites feel threatened, marginalized, or betrayed—especially by other elites—they may catalyze change.
Notable Quote:
“As long as the elites are doing well, things can get pretty horrible for ordinary people... but that doesn’t lead to revolution.” — Goldstone [31:31]
6. America Now: Are We in a Revolutionary Moment?
[34:31 – 42:18]
- Revolution in Modern America: The rhetoric from some political elites is as radical as any street movement.
- Counter-Revolutions: Egypt’s 2011 story demonstrates how a revolution can be quickly countered—sometimes with popular support—if revolutionaries fail to deliver.
- Democratic Processes at Risk: If electoral systems are bent beyond recognition, protest (or even secession discussions) become real possibilities.
Notable Quote:
“First time in my own country I see... the kind of institutional struggle you see in revolutions.” — Goldstone [35:21]
7. The Role of Emotion, Misinformation, and Internet**
[45:26 – 49:46], [62:06 – 65:48]
- Emotion > Facts: Pride and fear, not statistics, drive revolutionary mass action.
- “People are being manipulated on the basis of pride and fear... They want to be proud of their country, but they’re also easily driven to fear.” — Goldstone [45:26]
- Internet and Social Media: Build momentum but rarely strong cross-sectional coalitions. Face-to-face organizing and real groups were more effective in historical successes.
- Disinformation & Loss of Trust: With facts clouded and “credentialed elites” having lost legitimacy, building consensus is harder and societies are more vulnerable.
8. Violence vs. Nonviolence in Revolutions
[66:13 – 72:24]
- Historical Shift: Older (violent) revolutions often pitted armed groups against loyal militaries; today, with older populations and different regimes, nonviolent protests are more typical and sometimes equally successful ("as good a chance of success").
- Dictators Learn Fast: Crackdowns increasingly proactive—nonviolent protest is dealt with early and harshly, with ringleaders jailed or media manipulated.
- The 3.5% Rule: Referenced work shows large, sustained movements succeed when they involve 3.5% of the population, but this is now less reliable due to modern repression and surveillance.
9. Sustaining Change & The Role of Art
[78:14 – 84:54]
- Building Enduring Movements: One-off protests are “holidays”—lasting change needs sustained offline organization, as with the Civil Rights Movement and Ukraine’s Maidan protests.
- Art & Music: Folk music, protest songs, and even modern cinema (“Snowpiercer,” “Hunger Games”) reflect and often mythologize revolution, but Goldstone cautions they often oversimplify real complexity.
Notable Quote:
“If you actually want to change [the world], look to history, not Netflix.” — Goldstone [84:46]
10. The Hardest Part & What Keeps Revolutionologists Hopeful
[85:12 – 92:42]
- Biggest Challenge: The “abolition of fact versus opinion.” Lies proliferate in service of emotional or political ends; truth matters less.
- “We used to be ashamed to tell lies for those purposes. And that shame is gone and the lies are spreading.” — Goldstone [89:18]
- What Keeps Him Going: Stories of ordinary (and extraordinary) people genuinely improving their worlds — faith in the goodness and resilience of people, despite hard times.
Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |---|---|---| | 04:28 | Goldstone | “I got interested in revolutions because I wanted to know why governments often do stupid things... How do states fall into revolution?” | | 09:29 | Goldstone | “We have a kind of a myth of revolution as a heroic, noble cause to overthrow a terrible, oppressive government and liberate the people.” | | 15:29 | Goldstone | “A government that has the support of administrative and business elites, and particularly the military...it's almost impossible to overthrow a government, no matter how many people are in the streets.” | | 31:31 | Goldstone | “As long as the elites are doing well, things can get pretty horrible for ordinary people... but that doesn’t lead to a revolution.” | | 34:31 | Goldstone | “...That’s revolutionary rhetoric. That’s someone... trying to stir up people to support radical change.” | | 45:26 | Goldstone | “The motor of revolutions is emotion. It’s not facts. People don’t revolt because unemployment is up or down 5 or 10 percent. People are being manipulated on the basis of pride and fear.” | | 65:48 | Goldstone | “Internet has not made it easier to build a kind of similarly broad counter coalition. In fact, I think it’s made it more challenging.” | | 69:15 | Goldstone | “Nonviolent mass protest has as good a chance of success, especially against weak governments...” | 72:26 | Goldstone | “Dictators have learned that nonviolent protests have a propensity to grow and are a threat to them. So they’ve reacted more severely as long as they have the loyalty of the military.” | | 84:46 | Goldstone | “If you actually want to change [the world], look to history, not Netflix.” | | 89:18 | Goldstone | “We used to be ashamed to tell lies for those purposes. And that shame is gone and the lies are spreading... you start to feel the worst world closing in.” | | 91:13 | Goldstone | “I have a lot of faith in people. I love the stories of people who are succeeding... Building a business, building a community center, reaching out. We’re all good people at heart... if things break the right way, we’ll all get better and move forward as a society.” |
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Introduction & Background: [00:00 – 04:07]
- Defining/Understanding Revolution: [04:07 – 11:58]
- Historical vs. Modern Examples: [12:09 – 22:26]
- How Revolutions Succeed/Fail: [22:26 – 31:30]
- Modern America’s Revolutionary Moment: [34:31 – 42:18]
- Emotion, Misinformation, and the Internet: [45:26 – 49:46]; [62:06 – 65:48]
- Peaceful vs. Violent Revolutions: [66:13 – 72:24]
- Sustained Organizing vs. One-Off Protest: [78:14 – 84:54]
- Role of Art and Protest Music: [84:46 – 85:12]
- The Hardest Part, Hope and Advice: [85:12 – 92:42]
- Listener Questions & Advice for Organizing: Throughout, especially [53:45 – 79:04]
Dr. Goldstone’s Advice for Would-be Revolutionaries
[77:10], [78:14], [84:46]
- Build Local, Reach Out, Sustain: “Reach out through organizations… it takes a sustained campaign. One day with a million people in the streets, that's a holiday. That's not a campaign.”
- Offline Organization Still Crucial: “The lesson from Martin Luther King… is it takes a sustained campaign… not just one-off events.”
- Fact vs. Feeling: "Professionally committed to finding and telling the truth... but now people who do that get it from all sides."
The Role of Elites & Class Consciousness
[49:46 – 53:45]
- Credentialed vs. Plutocratic Elites: Goldstone distinguishes between economic (wealthy) elites and influential (educated/policy) elites and how both shape and are shaped by revolutionary moments.
- Elites as Key Drivers and Targets: When elites become divided or threatened, revolutions follow.
- Class Consciousness Question: Goldstone notes a growing sense of disillusionment among credentialed (educated) elites by the broader population, fueling instability.
The Role and Limits of Art and Protest Songs
[79:04 – 84:46]
- Art (music, visual, film) amplifies the emotion and the sense of heroics tied to revolutions, but can obscure the slow, unglamorous work of coalition-building and strategy.
Closing Reflection
Dr. Goldstone, despite chronicling many dark outcomes, emphasizes his enduring hope in regular people — their decency and their potential to drive positive change. He warns against the seductive simplicity of art and emotion divorced from strategic, collective action and pleads for a return to fact-based engagement, coalition-building, and sustained resistance.
“Revolutions are tiring... but if we keep in mind that other people are basically good, they kind of want the same things that we do, we can talk to them, have good conversations. Then I think there’s always hope.” — Goldstone [91:13]
Resources, Further Reading & Notable References
- Goldstone’s “Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction” (revised 2nd ed.)
- Erica Chenoweth & Maria J. Stephan, “Why Civil Resistance Works”
- Vincent Bevins, “If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution”
- Dr. Michael Parenti, “Blackshirts and Reds”
- More reading, protester rights, and donation links in Alie's show notes and website.
This summary captures the breadth and relevance of the conversation, equipping new listeners to quickly grasp the essential lessons, current stakes, and practical takeaways as examined with clarity and humanity by Alie Ward and Dr. Jack Goldstone.