Podcast Summary: Omni Talk Retail

Episode: “Retailers Are Running Lean This Holiday – Here's How to Not Run Out | Ask An Expert”
Date: October 21, 2025
Hosts: Anne Mezzenga & Chris Walton
Guests: Brandon Pierre (VP Client Success, SPS Commerce), Tony DePaulo (VP Head of Retail Sales & Customer Success, SPS Commerce)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the unique challenges facing retailers as they head into the 2025 holiday season, a period marked by leaner inventories, lower pre-season spend, and elevated risks around supply chain agility. With fresh data from SPS Commerce and PwC forecasting softer overall holiday sales, the episode focuses on five tactical approaches, actionable for retailers and suppliers in the immediate run-up to Black Friday. The discussion features key insights from SPS Commerce leaders on inventory management, supplier relationships, and how to avoid costly stockouts or wasted inventory amid continued economic uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of 2025 Holiday Retail – Data Trends & Market Shifts

• Leaner Inventory Approach:
  • Retailers are ordering smaller quantities, more frequently (“spreading smaller, more frequent bets, not locking in big buys”) [01:00–01:22].
  • Total holiday spend is projected to drop 5% (PwC), gift spend down 11%.
• Front-Loaded Inventory vs. Flexibility:
  • 15% increase in order count between January–August vs previous year, but with a 25% drop in overall dollar volume [06:00–07:22].

    “They are...front loading inventory a little bit earlier...but the actual dollar spend on that order volume appears to be down. So they don’t seem to be building safety stock at the same level.” — Brandon Pierre [06:03]

• Rising Strain on Suppliers:
  • Doubling of PO acknowledgement errors, signaling that suppliers are feeling execution risk and inconsistency [08:36–09:10].

    “Nearly double the amount of PO acknowledgement errors are happening. So those suppliers are feeling that strain.” — Tony DePaulo [08:36]

2. Key Risks and Scenario Planning

• Inventory Chasing & Late-Season Execution Risk:
  • If demand spikes, replenishment will be a race, making on-shelf availability a make-or-break factor.

    “If we do get hot and lean inventory is out there...there will be a late season crunch. Even small dips in on time in full from suppliers could lead to customers walking in the store and not get what they’re looking for.” — Tony DePaulo [10:30]

  • If demand is soft, retailers must excel in precision, using data to drive promotions and maximize sell-through.
• Supplier Communication & Collaboration:
  • The importance of two-way communication and shared data:

    “Retailers are going to need to maximize the sell through and all eyes should be on their assortment and sales data as they progress through the season so that they can pivot in real time and communicate with their vendors.” — Tony DePaulo [11:11]

• Increased Supplier Complexity At Holiday:
  • Onboarding of new, often niche suppliers spikes ahead of the holiday (“Santa Claus bath mats” effect), which increases exception management challenges [16:47–17:33].

3. High-Impact Tactics for Retailers (Five Approaches)

A. Supplier Scorecarding

• Analyze supplier performance around critical areas (on-time, in-full, response to changes).
• Share findings with suppliers and set “robust scorecarding” baselines for real-time monitoring through the holiday [18:02–19:31, 21:24].

  “Supplier scorecards are your radar if demand spikes...having sales data at the ready to be your playbook if demand stays soft.” — Tony DePaulo [21:24]

B. Promote Real-Time Collaborative Data Sharing

• Empower suppliers by giving them access to sales data to drive in-season agility and timely production adjustments [18:02–19:31].

C. Prepare for Change Management & Exception Handling

• With 1 in 5 orders incorporating changes (timing, quantity, pricing), refine internal and external processes for rapid change management [13:00–14:49].

D. Don’t Ignore Smaller/Niche Suppliers

• Have dedicated plans for the “long tail” of suppliers, not just the largest ones, to avoid losing critical SKUs and missing emergent trends or viral products [15:13–16:45].

E. Automate Where Possible

• Suppliers should prioritize logistics planning, inventory placement, and automate exception handling to increase responsiveness and efficiency [19:48–20:54].

4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the Season’s Risks:

  “All eyes should be on their assortment and sales data...so they can pivot in real time and communicate with their vendors on what's needed so they don't miss out on any demand opportunity.” — Tony DePaulo [11:11]

• On Lean Inventory:

  “Retail is detail...when you think about the execution and reaction that they're clearly setting up for this season more than ever before, that's going to be put on point. And I think that leveraging that partnership with the suppliers is going to be critical.” — Brandon Pierre [22:15]

• On Viral/Trend Risk:

  “You could have a first time supplier coming in with these products and there's no way to know if you could have that in stock or not.” — Anne Mezzenga [15:50]

• On Automation:

  “If you can...absolutely recommend folks to think about automating that exception handling.” — Tony DePaulo [20:54]

5. Measurement: OTIF (On Time in Full)

• Explained: Percentage of orders delivered exactly when and how they were promised.

  “On time in full...helps you understand how well you're covering the details. If they're a day or two late, those are lost sales...If they're a couple units short, those are now more lost sales.” — Brandon Pierre [23:33–24:58]

• Critical for lean holiday environments where there’s little safety stock.

Timestamped Guide to Key Segments

• Retail Data Trends & Inventory Strategies: [01:00–07:22]
• Supplier Strain & Acknowledgement Errors: [08:36–09:35]
• Demand Spike vs. Soft Demand Scenario: [10:14–12:30]
• Major Execution Risks for Retailers & Suppliers: [13:00–16:13]
• Importance of Niche/New Suppliers: [16:47–17:33]
• Top Five Tactics for Holiday Readiness: [18:02–20:54]
• Final Words of Wisdom from Brandon & Tony: [21:08–23:19]
• Explanation of OTIF Metric: [23:19–24:58]

Final Takeaways

• Be Ready to React: The real test for 2025 is in rapid, data-driven adaptation—lean planning, but robust in-season agility.
• Collaboration is Essential: Data transparency and close communication between retailers and suppliers will separate winners from losers.
• Details Matter: Both for major brands and smaller suppliers—everyone needs to be aligned and ready for volatility.
• Prepare & Partner: Start preparing suppliers now, automate workflows where possible, and scorecard ruthlessly.

Contact the Experts

• Brandon Pierre: LinkedIn or brpierre@spscommerce.com
• Tony DePaulo: LinkedIn (Tony DePaulo)