Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin discuss the recent wave of IPO hype and the surge in investor interest driven by high-profile listings and large valuation headlines. They explain why headline market caps can be misleading, emphasizing the importance of float-adjusted valuations and how much stock is actually available to public investors. Despite attention-grabbing figures, the impact of these IPOs on major indexes like the S&P 500® may be smaller than many assume.

Liz Ann and Collin discuss how potential changes to index inclusion rules, including shorter eligibility timelines and flexibility around profitability requirements, could alter how quickly newly public companies enter major benchmarks. In addition, they highlight structural dynamics such as lockup expirations and the gradual increase in share float over time, which can influence trading behavior well after the initial offering.

Behavioral factors also play a central role in the discussion. Liz Ann revisits the risks of speculative investing, noting how FOMO and a "casino-like" market environment can lead investors to chase IPO hype rather than consider long-term portfolio fit. They stress the importance of discipline and context when evaluating new investment opportunities.

The conversation then shifts to the broader macro backdrop, including the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and recent movements in the bond market. Collin outlines the Fed's likely wait-and-see approach amid rising inflation, noting that while the balance of risks has shifted, a single rate move may not signal a broader trend. They also discuss the potential impact of Fed decisions on long-term yields and overall market stability.

Finally, Liz Ann and Collin preview upcoming economic data releases, including inflation reports, labor market indicators, and sentiment surveys, and discuss what they'll be watching in the week ahead.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

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Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions

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